A Live Queen's Plate Longshot

--Brian DiDonato

   I don’t think I’ve ever picked a Queen’s Plate winner. I did talk my father off last year’s 16-1 upsetter Midnight Aria, however. He wasn’t very happy. So consider that a disclaimer before I state my case for a horse who I think is an extremely live longshot in Sunday's feature...
   Three of the last four Queen’s Plates have been won by the pacesetter: Big Red Mike (2010, 5-1), Strait of Dover (2012, 7-2) and Midnight Aria (2013, 16-1). Despite an average of 13 horses in those three renewals, North America’s longest-running race seems to differ significantly in terms of dynamics from the U.S. equivalent. The nature of the Kentucky Derby makes it close to impossible to go box to wire, but the Queen’s Plate seems to feature the opposite phenomenon in recent years. Maybe it’s the different surfaces the two races are contested over, or maybe I’m just being fooled by randomness, but I expect this recent trend to continue in 2014.
   Heart to Heart, who’s 30-1 on the morning line but will likely go off at about half that price at post time, was a decent, if not standout 2-year-old last term while trained by Mike Stidham. He was beaten a nose in the six-panel Vandal S. here last August while finishing ahead of two other Queen’s Plate runners, and finished off his juvenile campaign with a fourth-place run in the nine-furlong Coronation Futurity in which a number of these horses competed. That final 2013 effort wasn’t bad considering he was a bit headstrong early and was being asked to carry his speed over a distance that’s probably a bit too far for most 2-year-olds.
   Subsequently transferred to Brian Lynch, Heart to Heart resurfaced in a grassy one-mile Keeneland allowance in April, and couldn’t have been much more impressive setting quick splits before drawing off to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort--tied with Lexie Lou’s Woodbine Oaks win for the fastest race by any horse in the Queen’s Plate. Jessica’s Star, second in that allowance, has won three times since then, including last Saturday’s GIII Iowa Derby.
   Heart to Heart was a very close sixth last time in the Marine S., but I think you can toss that effort. His rider took a hard hold of him early despite what looked like a significant pace edge, and he just wasn’t quite as effective. Now Eurico Rosa da Silva, winner of the 2009 and 2010 Queen’s Plates climbs aboard, and there’s no way he won’t send Heart to Heart.
   The distance might prove too far, but the aforementioned Strait of Dover was also by English Channel (who could obviously run all day himself), and I’ll take my chances in the stretch if Heart to Heart can get to that point without much pressure.

Bonus Pick: I really like Main Sequence in Monmouth's GI United Nations S. He has some very good European form and Graham Motion does extremely well with foreign imports making their first Stateside starts.

Belmont Derby Horse-by-Horse Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

#1 Toast of New York (3-1) - Enters this as the buzz horse off a decisive 2 1/2-length win in the G2 UAE Derby in March (video), but I’m very much against him here. For starters, I’m not sure he beat much at Meydan. He’s also completely unproven on turf, with all three of his wins having come on synthetic surfaces. The bay certainly doesn’t have Bobby’s Kitten speed, but he’s rail drawn and tactical--there’s a good chance he could get taken out of his game having to chase a type of speed he's never seen before. Potentially being fresh off the break won't help matters. At a short price, he can beat me.

#2 Sheldon (30-1) - Trainer Jimmy Toner is red hot, but can’t imagine this recent maiden winner making much of an impact on the steep class hike.

#3 Bobby’s Kitten (6-1) - Clearly this aforementioned speedster has serious ability, but I just can’t envision him seeing out 10 panels—especially against a field of this caliber. He rated effectively last time in the Penn Mile (video), but he was tugging pretty hard, and two more furlongs just can’t possibly be better for him.

#4 Adelaide (7-2) - This is the type of European I look for--he seems like a major stand-out. The bay is lightly raced with plenty of upside, and is already a convincing Group 3 winner over heavy ground going this distance in the G3 Gallinule S. (video). He had a less-than-perfect trip last time in Royal Ascot's G2 King Edward VII S. (video), but did well enough to be second going an additional quarter mile. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Aidan O'Brien is nine-for-35 (26%) with a $3.21 ROI in North America over the past five years with horses running on Lasix--hard to argue with that stat.

#5 Flamboyant (15-1) - Thought his winning Stateside debut in Santa Anita's La Puente S. (video) was visually impressive (and looks even better after the runner-up took his next two), but didn't like how he let Gala Award battle back in the Pennine Ridge. Not sold on him at this distance, but wouldn't be shocked if he won or ran well.

#6 Dance With Fate (10-1) - Definitely appears better on turf or synthetic. His GI Blue Grass S. win was nice (video), even if he got a solid pace set-up. Has some distance questions to answer, but he was running on pretty well in the GI Kentucky Derby. Definitely one of the better U.S.-based chances.

#7 Gailo Chop (5-1) - One of the harder reads in the race for me. He beat a horse in the G3 Prix la Force (video) who came back to beat Adelaide, but he did get a perfect drafting trip to do it. Then he seemed to get away with an easy lead last out in the Prix Noailles (video). He may run into a similar problem like that of Toast of New York--he's not as fast as Bobby's Kitten, but the race won't be run slow up front like he's accustomed to and he might get dragged into running too fast early. I also don't like that he's not getting Lasix. Play against at 5-1, but could see reevaluating if he gets lost on the tote.

#8 Pornichet (10-1) - I'm a big fan of the "other Euro" angle, and this is the horse who fits the bill. He wasn't beaten much when third in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (video) and, most interestingly, is now trained by legendary Australian conditioner Gai Waterhouse after a private purchase. Distance is, again, the big question, but previous conditioner Nicolas Clement was already considering the bay for this event, and Waterhouse purchased him as a G1 Melbourne Cup prospect, so the consensus among some very capable horsepeople seems to be that he'll handle the trip just fine.

#9 Mr Speaker (15-1) - Was on the verge of tossing this runner when I remembered my new rule to give every Shug McGaughey horse going 10 furlongs or more an extra look--according to Formulator, he's a gaudy 34% with a $3.29 ROI in that category over the past five seasons. Mr Speaker's form was very good before the Pennine Ridge, in which he pretty much stopped after finding himself on the lead. I'm just going to toss his last and give him another shot at a much bigger price than what he would have been had he run to his 95-100 odds last time.

#10 Global View (12-1) - Closed very quickly to win the GII American Turf S. two back (video), but that race came against a much weaker field. Was no match for Bobby's Kitten last time in the Penn Mile, and while as a Galileo he should appreciate the trip, there's no way he'll appreciate it more than the other Galileo (Adelaide).

#11 Gala Award (10-1) - Was a deserving winner of the Pennine Ridge (video), and he also beat Mr Speaker (who rallied from very far back) earlier this year in the GIII Palm Beach S. The 11 post is by no means a death sentence at 10 panels, but it does put him in an awkward position tactically. Can see him getting a wide trip out in no man's land, and not sure he's good enough to overcome such a disadvantage. Figures to take money as well considering his connections.

Play: Win on #4 Adelaide at 3-1+. Exacta key box 4 w/ #6 Dance With Fate, #8 Pornichet and #9 Mr Speaker. Will use those four in pick threes and doubles (and an imaginary all-stakes pick four). 

Belmont Oaks Horse-by-Horse Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

#1 Gold Espony (10-1) - Seems like a true 1 1/4-mile horse--has pretty much run exclusively at or close to the distance. Really liked her win three back in the Prix Rose de Mai (video), in which her final time was some :04 2/5 quicker than Belmont Derby contender Gailo Chop over the same course and distance on the same card. Not sure how much stock you can put in French final times, but it's certainly noteworthy. Was game to subsequently annex the G3 Prix Penelope (video), but didn't run a step in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary. Maybe she bled? Gets Lasix for strong connections--major chance, especially if she's sent right to the front in a field that isn't filled with true speed.

#2 Room Service (3-1) - Her last two races look good on paper, but she might be a little dressed up. The early pace of the GI Ashland S. (video) was off-the-charts fast, and the GI American Oaks featured a three-way pace battle up front that set the table for closers (video). Don't see her getting the same set-up here, and she won't be much of a price.

#3 My Conquestadory (12-1) - Was vastly overrated after her win in the GI Alcibiades S. last fall (video), but she ran better than I expected when fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Resurfaced in Woodbine's GIII Selene S. in May, and was out-nosed despite setting glacial fractions (video). She'll have to run a whole lot better here to compete, and think she'll prove best as a late-running miler.

#4 Summer Solo (30-1) - She's a nice filly, but this is a very tall task.

#5 Flying Jib (5-1) - One of my favorite types of Euros to bet against--she's almost certainly going to find this trip too far. Sire Oasis Dream was an excellent sprinter who finished 10th in the 2003 BC Mile in his only route attempt; dam Jibboom was a nice Frankel runner, but she never won beyond 1 1/16 miles and was probably best at about seven furlongs.

#6 Rosalind (12-1) - Got the same set-up in the Ashland as Room Service. Can excuse her GI Kentucky Oaks fourth (though she didn't run terribly all things considered). Dropped her rider when ambitiously spotted in Royal Ascot's G1 Coronation S. June 20, so certainly doesn't come into this optimally. Always seems to have a following, and still not sure how good she is.

#7 Xcellence (5-2) - Morning-line favorite seems to be getting plenty of buzz on twitter off two thirds in Group 1 company. Handled more ground in the Prix de Diane last time (video), but she's done nothing to suggest she's some sort of world beater. For as profitable as it can be to bet Europeans in American grass races, the shorter-priced runners are rarely the ones you want. Doesn't get Lasix, and won't be getting much of my money--maybe just on some back-up tickets.

#8 Wonderfully (12-1) - It's impossible to know what to do with this horse. She's been a complete non-factor in two races this year. Maybe Lasix will help, but her 2013 form was decent enough that it doesn't seem particularly likely that bleeding is the issue. Using sparingly by default.

#9 Minorette (12-1) - Has run sneaky-well in both of her Stateside races. Was simply too far back in a front-end dominated one-mile allowance at Keeneland Apr. 6, but still flew home to be third. Runner-up A Little Bit Sassy returned to annex the Edgewood S. before getting DQ'd in the GIII Regret S. Chad Brown trainee made a wide, premature move in the Wonder Again S. (video) before getting reeled in by Sea Queen. Could be poised for another step forward, and more ground shouldn't be a problem if she gets a better trip.

#10 Recepta (20-1) - Don't expect her to find the improvement she needs with the added ground.

#11 Sea Queen (10-1) - First inclination was to take a negative view considering what a perfect trip she had in the Wonder Again, but it's not like the rest of her form isn't solid. Going to include, but again, sort of by default since I'm against the favorites.

Play: Win on #1 Gold Espony at 8-1+ or #9 Minorette at 12-1+. Chad Brown 1,9 exacta box. Additional exacta box 1,9,11; and smaller exacta box 1,8,9,11. Will likely cover Xcellence in some horizontal wagers.

The Case Against 'Chrome': Handicapping the Preakness

--Brian DiDonato



Victor Espinoza celebrates aboard California Chrome
Horsephotos

   When a lower-priced horse wins the Derby, we tend to think that all the questions leading up to the first Saturday in May have been answered. Take last year, for example. Orb seemed off his Florida form like he could be the best 3-year-old in that crop, so when he won the Derby by a convincing margin, the result appeared to be definitive. Most (myself included) dismissed, or at least minimized, the fact that the Derby was run over a sloppy surface and featured a complete meltdown pace. Orb had been anointed the latest sure-thing Triple Crown winner (proud to say I don’t think I went quite that far). Then Derby also-rans Oxbow (15-1), Palice Malice (13-1) and Will Take Charge (9-1) took the Preakness, Belmont and Travers, respectively, with Orb going down at low odds each time, and things looked a whole lot less cut-and-dry.
   There is the distinct possibility of a similar phenomenon occurring this year. Yes, California Chrome had the best form coming into the Derby, and as he pulled away from his competition I thought to myself, “Okay, he’s just too good for these horses.” But then the timer didn’t stop until 2:03.66, and everyone’s figures came back slow. And then I watched the replay a few times and realized that the favorite enjoyed a dream trip in a race that was full of rough ones.
   Nothing about the Derby necessarily proved that California Chrome isn’t a stand-out in this bunch, but the same reasons that were there to play against him at 5-2 in the Derby are still there and now he's going to be 3-5 off of two weeks' rest. The pace that never materialized over a speed-friendly surface at Churchill looks like a sure thing here, and that could certainly hurt the chalk’s chances. If he wins again, you tip your cap (and triple down in the Belmont), but I’m not ready to anoint California Chrome just yet--and I'm certainly not taking 3-5 on anybody ever.
   See below for my horse-by-horse analysis.

1. Dynamic Impact - 12-1 - Certainly took a while to break out of the maiden ranks, but as soon as he did, he went on to upset the GIII Illinois Derby. It’s hard to know how much credit to give him for that effort, though. He sat a pretty dream trip just off of heavily favored Midnight Hawk, and may have benefitted more from that one’s distance and mental limitations than anything else. Still, he’s by Tiznow out of a Smart Strike mare who, though she was a sprinter, hails from a stout enough family. So the distance looks up his alley, and he could be moving in the right direction. Might just sit the trip--not completely out of this.

2. General a Rod - 15-1 - Reminds me of last year’s Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday, but with maybe a less advantageous style in relation to the projected pace--unless he comes from farther back like he did in the Derby, which you’d think his connections might try. His Derby trip was definitely less than perfect. He was really running late, and would have likely been maybe fifth or sixth if not for running into traffic. Still came home fourth-fastest of anyone in the race (:26.26)--behind only California Chrome (:26.21), Commanding Curve (:25.57) and Ride On Curlin (:25.73)--so there’s reason to believe he can be an effective off-the-pace threat. He’s run fast before, and is definitely one to use.

3. California Chrome - 3-5 - Already touched on him above. . . Going to try to get him out of the exacta, but certainly won’t be surprised if he wins. Then I’ll just liquidate my assets and take the Tonalist/Danza Belmont exacta box for the max.

4. Ring Weekend - 20-1 - Seems very much up against it. His front-running upset win of the GII Tampa Bay Derby seems more like the exception than the rule, especially after a disappointing showing in the Calder Derby. Then he had to miss the Derby due to a fever. Can’t envision a scenario in which he can win--his best game is using his speed, and that’s just not going to work here.

5. Bayern - 10-1 - Set a super slow pace when he won that one-mile Santa Anita allowance by 15, and regressed when third as the chalk in the nine-panel GI Arkansas Derby. Hard to love his stretch antics that led to a disqualification when dropped back to a mile for the GIII Derby Trial. Likely pace casualty who doesn’t want to go this far.

6. Ria Antonia - 30-1 - Next. . .

7. Kid Cruz - 20-1 - This is who I’m going with, though it's starting to look like he's a bit of a wise guy horse. He still hasn’t run fast enough on speed figures, but his style fits the way this race has to be run if we’re going to beat California Chrome and he’s been very visually impressive since Linda Rice claimed him for $50,000 in November. He came from out of the clouds to take Laurel’s Private Terms S. Mar. 8 over 1 1/8 miles, and looked like a legitimate GI Wood Memorial threat before having to miss that race due to a sore shoulder. Seemingly no worse for wear, the Linda Rice trainee flew home again into a slow pace to take this venue’s Federico Tesio S. last time Apr. 19. A win over the strip can’t be a bad thing, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem. He still needs to prove he’s good enough, but he has upside and should get the right set-up.

8. Social Inclusion - 5-1 - Possibly the toughest read in the race. He’s shown just about as much talent as any 3-year-old this year, and it’s easy to excuse his tough-trip third in the Wood--he was wide, pressing a hot pace and still looked like the winner until very late. But isn’t he going to run into the same problem here? His connections seem to think his best chance is to try and run these horses off their feet--and maybe they’re right or at least they’re aware that Social Inclusion doesn’t want to rate--but they’re going to have to hope that all the other speeds decide not to send for that strategy to work. Not tossing out completely, as I think it’s hard to deny his talent and could see him winning a race like the Haskell later on this year, but fear he might be up against it again this time.

9. Pablo Del Monte - 20-1 - Seems very likely that he’s a better synthetic horse and doesn’t seem to want this trip. Adds more fuel to the fire.

10. Ride On Curlin - 10-1 - Somewhere between on the lead and dead last early is where he wants to be, but anyone who was surprised with Borel taking him back to last in the Derby just doesn’t pay attention. It may have actually been his best bet considering the potential there for a collapse, but the pace just didn’t quite materialize and he still ran on well to be seventh. He finished faster (:25.73) than everyone but Commanding Curve, and just needs to work out a trip one of these days.

The play: Win bet on Kid Cruz and an exacta box of Kid Cruz, Ride On Curlin, General a Rod and Dynamic Impact. Will also play a Social Inclusion over Kid Cruz exacta saver and will probably use the four from the exacta box, plus Social Inclusion and California Chrome in the pick four if I decide to play one on a somewhat uninspiring undercard.

Kid Cruz draws off in Pimlico's Federico Tesio S.
Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club

Black-Eyed Susan Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

PIM 7 - Rollicking S. - It’s like the Wesley Ward Futurity. . . The 2-year-old specialist has half of the eight runners entered in this very early juvenile stakes race (maybe he’ll scratch one or two? I hope not.) One of the most important things I look for in these races is the length of time between now and the horse’s debut or most recent start. These very precocious babies are usually fully cranked to win first out, and the more time they have to recover after their debut, the better. Debt Ceiling, for example, the 5-1 winner of this event last year, debuted so early (Mar. 30) that he already had a lay-off line coming into this race. The two runners I like happen to be tied for most time off between starts, and are also both trained by Ward. Hootenanny assumed the role of the “other Ward” when he was let go at nearly 5-1 for his Apr. 17 Keeneland unveiling, only to best 2-1 stablemate and return runner-up Circle the World by an easy 4 1/4 lengths. I thought he did it the right way, and he looks like he can switch off and rate--something he’ll be well-served to do here. Hootenanny also had a very sparing worktab coming into his debut, so perhaps he’ll move forward off that effort. The other Ward horse I’m interested in--and the one I’ll be betting to win--is Bessie’s Boy. Shipped here for his debut Apr. 17, the 3-5 favorite chased the pace well out into the track and ultimately prevailed over the re-opposing pair of Pret Say Eye and Governmentshutdown. The latter returned to romp here May 3 with a field’s-best 82 Beyer, which flatters Bessie’s Boy, but makes me very dubious of Governmentshutdown’s likelihood of replicating his best while making his third start in a month. I also like that Bessie’s Boy received a relatively low 51 Beyer for his debut, as early juvenile figures reveal very little in terms of actual ability, and lower figures often mean more is left in the tank while inflating the odds (Beyers, of course, are not produced for Keeneland’s 4 1/2-furlong races because of the configuration used, but I’m pretty sure the Keeneland winners here would have earned higher than a 51 on the Beyer scale.) Play: Win on #5 Bessie’s Boy (10-1), exacta box with #6 Hootenanny (5-2).


Joint Return                                            Joe Labozzetta

PIM 10 - GII Black-Eyed Susan S. - She may be too slow, both in terms of pace and final time, but I have to give Joint Return one more shot to handle tougher competition. The John Servis trainee first caught my eye with two wins at Parx in which she overcame very slow paces to blow by her competition with ease. Let go at 7-1 for Aqueduct’s Feb. 1 Busher S., the dark bay again mounted a head-turning bid, inhaling her competition in last-to-first fashion while covering plenty of ground (albeit against a pretty average group). I was sold on Joint Return as a legitimate Oaks contender at that point, but she never lifted a hoof when fifth in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks Mar. 29. I am willing to excuse that effort, however, as we’ve seen plenty of recent examples of closers simply not taking to the speed-friendly Gulfstream main track this year. Dropped in class for the Apr. 12 Calder Oaks, Joint Return was back to her old self, looking like she might be eased early before cruising by every one of her foes like they were standing still. While the first quarter of that race was very quick, the frontrunners really slowed it down after that and still ran second and third, so it seems Joint Return’s performance was reasonably legitimate (again, not the strongest competition). She earned a career-best 76 Beyer, which is by no means quick, but there really aren’t any fast fillies in this race (average Beyer top for the rest of the field is just 81.2), and as a deep closer, she’s never going to really run a fast number unless she gets a hot pace. I’m not expecting exceedingly quick early splits here, but Joint Return shouldn’t be at a disadvantage and she still has every right to be much better than she looks on paper. Play: Win on #1 Joint Return (15-1), also using #2 America (8-1), #8 Sloane Square (5-1) and #9 Fortune Pearl (12-1) in pick threes.

PIM 11 - Miss Preakness S.  - Here I go right back to a slow-looking John Servis runner. Stormy Novel is basically Joint Return with the added positive of a cut-back in distance. She was very visually impressive taking a Parx allowance Feb. 2 at 1-9 odds, but faded to sixth after setting the pace in Turfway’s GIII Bourbonette Oaks over a mile of Polytrack. Being by Bernardini, one might think she should prefer going long, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that she’s back at a more suitable distance. Her speedy, but 0-for-2 dam is by Forestry, and also produced Stormy Novel’s full-sister Bridgehampton, who was second in the GIII Victory Ride S. last June and who has never been sent beyond six panels in five career tries. If the morning line on her holds, 8-1 shot Miss Behaviour will also be a significant overlay. Her dirt sprint form was extremely solid at two, and she would have beaten Miss Preakness entrant Tea Time in last October’s Sharp Cat S. if that filly hand’t been allowed to set a laughably glacial pace. Miss Behaviour’s two most recent races came going a mile and over turf, respectively, but this is her game and I look for her to run big. I’ll also toss in 2-for-2 Our Lesmis, whose win in the mud last time is a positive considering the very wet forecast for Friday. Chalkier horses Jojo Warrior and Tepin should also be respected, but I’ll only use them as back-ups. Play: Win on #1 Stormy Novel (15-1), exacta box with #4 Miss Behaviour (8-1) and #5 Our Lesmis (5-1). Using those three in pick threes as well as #8 Jojo Warrior (5-2) and #6 Tepin (9-2) as back-ups.

PIM 12 - GIII Pimlico Special H. - I don’t have any particularly strong opinions here, but it’s nice to see this once-prestigious race attract a competitive field. Morning-line choice Revolutionary feels like he should be pretty tough if he shows up with his best--he had that traffic trouble thanks to Will Take Charge in the GII Oaklawn H., and more ground plus a potentially wet track both play to his advantage. If there’s an upset, I think it’ll come from either Revolutionary’s stablemate Golden Lad or Prayer for Relief. Golden Lad was clearly already beaten when he was bumped in Arkansas, but he seemed washed out and maybe not on his game before that race. He was on an upward trajectory before that, and earned a career-best 102 Beyer two back over a wet/fast track in Oaklawn’s GIII Razorback H. Mar. 15. I’ve never been a big fan of Prayer for Relief, to be honest, but he does have some fast races that stack up well with these and I didn’t like the ride he got last time in his first start switching from Steve Asmussen to Dale Romans. He was left out unnecessarily wide early, dropped back like he was done on the turn, but re-rallied in the stretch to finish only 2 1/4 lengths behind Revolutionary. If Oaklawn had Trakus, I would think the ground loss adjustments would put Prayer for Relief ahead of Revolutionary. If he goes off at or above his 12-1 morning line, he’s probably worth a small win bet. Play: Odds-dependent win bet on #8 Prayer for Relief (12-1). Using him, #6 Revolutionary (5-2) and #4 Golden Lad (6-1) in pick threes.

Derby Undercard Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

CD Race 3 - MSW, 6f - There are some very telling stats for trainer Ian Wilkes that make #10 Boss Gone (8-1) pretty much an automatic bet here. The gelding was sixth with a fairly rough trip on debut over the Keeneland Polytrack Apr. 12, and is likely to improve drastically under these conditions. For one, according to DRF Formulator, Wilkes is just 7% on synthetic tracks (5% at Keeneland) over the past five years; and only 2% with his first timers. Combining those two categories, he’s 0-for-29. Wilkes does much better second out, however—especially recently. He’s 7-for-30 (23%) with maiden second timers over the past 12 months with a very strong $3.70 ROI, and an even-better 6-for-22 (27%) with a $4.83 ROI when that stat is restricted to dirt starters. There’s plenty of speed signed on here, and Boss Gone actually fits pretty well on speed figures. Maybe that means the 8-1 morning line quote is unrealistic, but regardless, I’m expecting a much-improved performance from this Wilkes trainee and think anything around 9-2 or better is fair value.

CD Race 6 - GII Distaff Turf Mile - Centre Court is a very worthy favorite with a three-for-three record over the Churchill strip, but #6 I’m Already Sexy (10-1) has a chance to spring the upset. The Wayne Catalano pupil put together a pair of solid winning efforts over the Arlington turf course this summer, including a 3 3/4-length victory in the GIII Pucker Up S., but was up against it in her last two trips to the post as a sophomore. She failed to make the lead when drawn wide in a very quick-paced renewal of the GI QE II Challenge Cup, and had a similar problem in this venue’s GII Mrs. Revere S. over good ground. There isn’t really much speed signed on here, however, and if I’m Already Sexy is gunned to the lead, she could get brave over a one-mile distance that should be to her liking.

CD Race 8 - GII American Turf S. - I’ll spread pretty wide in here to kick off the pick four, but I’m most interested in #2 Chief Barker (5-1). I know, surprise, surprise, I’m picking the Euro. . . But he kicked off his career with three well-rated victories in Britain last Summer, including a score over the ill-fated Chriselliam. She annexed the G1 Fillies’ Mile and GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in her next two outings. Chief Barker hasn’t been seen since finishing sixth in the G1 Racing Post Trophy for Richard Hannon, but it didn’t look like he loved the soft ground that day and he appears to be working very well for new conditioner Larry Rivelli. This is the type of horse that gets more lost on days when there’s more casual money in the pools.

CD Race 9 - GII Churchill Downs S. - This is another race with a number of possibilities and live prices, but I have to go back to #2 Clearly Now (9-2). I loved him in the Carter (analysis here), and obviously wasn’t alone as he went off the 5-2 favorite, but could only manage third. He got a really terrible ride in a race full of bad rides--I’ve never seen a Grade I sprint run like a 12-furlong turf race before, but that’s pretty much what happened. Anyway, Clearly Now should have been right up there pressing the pace instead of being strangled in and among horses--now he gets a rider change to Javier Castellano, who’s never afraid to put his horses into the mix early. The lay-off was the main concern for Clearly last time, as he always seems to fire best second off the bench, and he should be ready for a peak effort here.

Oaks Day Late Pick Four Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GI Kentucky Oaks - The whole world knows that this race goes through Untapable. Her two efforts

this season tower over the competition, and she’ll probably win. But being drawn out in the 13 post makes her a little vulnerable, and she’s not absolutely guaranteed to get the distance—plus she does have a target on her back. I’m not crazy enough to toss her, and many of my bets will use her on top, but I do think there’s some value to be had here—either on the win end if the favorite falters, or at least underneath.
   The horse I’m most interested in is Thank You Marylou, who’s an extremely generous 30-1 on the morning line. The Mike Maker trainee is by Birdstone—whose progeny almost universally prefer a conventional main track, and who are better the longer they go—out of a Menifee mare who was much better on dirt and a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Yet this will be the first time Thank You Marylou routes on dirt, and the first time she goes beyond 8 1/2 panels. A late-on-the-scene third (promoted to second via DQ) in the GII Saratoga Special in August, the chestnut resurfaced to take Gulfstream’s seven-furlong Any Limit S. by 2 1/2 lengths over a decent field Mar. 9, good for a 95 Beyer Speed Figure (that makes her the third-fastest horse in the race, believe it or not). Perhaps she should’ve finished better than seven lengths behind the top two when third in Keeneland’s GI Ashland S. in her first route attempt last time, but she was much closer to that insane early pace than those foes were and she just never figured to prefer the synthetic. She should run a new Beyer top under these conditions, and that puts her right with pretty much anything besides Untapable’s best.
   I’ll also include Unbridled Forever, the daughter of 2006 Oaks upsetter Lemons Forever who should also appreciate this trip and figures to move up off her third behind Untapable in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks; Got Lucky, who continues to let me down, but has had some trip excuses and is best at nine furlongs; and a tiny bit of GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner-via-DQ Ria Antonia, who ran ok first-time Baffert last time in the GI Santa Anita Oaks and could take a step forward.
   The Play: Win on #5 Thank You Marylou (30-1). Exacta box key w/ #13 Untapable (4-5) (pressed), #9 Unbridled Forever (12-1), #12 Got Lucky (20-1) and #2 Ria Antonia (10-1). Trifecta 13 w/ 2,5,9,12 w/ 2,5,9,12. In the pick four, 5,13 as A’s; 9 as B; 2,12 as C’s.

Thank You Marylou                                       Kenny Martin

GII Alysheba S. - This looks like a very good spot to oppose odds-on favorite Will Take Charge. He danced lots of dances last year, and has already run three times this year—in Florida, California and Arkansas. He did not look like his best self when barely winning the GII Oaklawn H. last time and nearly being DQ’d, and the 103 Beyer he earned was his lowest in eight starts. This 1 1/16-mile distance is also much shorter than optimal for him. Normandy Invasion is the obvious alternative and figures to take some beating—his runner-up finish behind Palace Malice in the GII New Orleans H. while attempting to close into a slow pace takes this a large portion of the time. I’ll also use the other obvious horses: Golden Ticket, whose close second to Palice Malice in the GII Gulfstream Park H. looks particularly good in hindsight and whose last race in that embarrassingly run Carter can be ignored; and Mylute, who still has some upside. I’m also going to use a little Coin Broker because he’s still unexposed and trainer Dale Romans is always sneaky.
   The Play: Exacta box #5 Normandy Invasion (3-1), #7 Golden Ticket (6-1) and #3 Mylute (10-1), w/ 5,7 box pressed. Smaller exacta key box #4 Coin Broker w/ 3,5,7. In the pick four, 3,5,7 as A’s, 4 as a C.

Edgewood S. - This morning line seems a bit off to me, but if it were to hold, Little Journey would be a very big overlay at 10-1. Trainer Chad Brown is just SO deadly with these European fillies, and they don’t always get bet—Sweet Acclaim was a fast-closing second at 8-1 in last month’s GIII Appalachian S. According to the Keeneland clocker report, Little Journey out-worked Pleuven—a GSP 3-year-old colt who would crush these—over the turf there Apr. 17. Plus she was third in September behind Flamboyant, who took her own Stateside debut in Santa Anita’s La Puente S. two weeks ago. The other two I’ll use are Istanford and Resistivity, who were part of that complete meltdown in the Ashland I alluded to earlier. Both are much better than that and I don’t think they’ll be ridden quite so aggressively this time, though I wasn’t expecting them to be the second and third choices on the morning line.
   The Play: Win bet on #5 Little Journey (10-1) at 5-1+, also using #7 Istanford (7-2) and #10 Resistivity (3-1) in the pick four.

Eight Belles S. - What a surprise, a 3-year-old race at seven furlongs comes up super interesting. . . There are tons of ways to go in here—the obvious players like She’s a Tiger, Fiftyshadesofgold and Our Amazing Rose have to be respected, but there’s at least one longshot who interests me a lot. I discussed Mufajaah here a bit before the Fantasy, where she never quite seemed to recover after a rough start, checking in seventh in what was a bit of a merry-go-round race. She still has every right to prove extremely talented, though, and I love the cut back to seven panels for her and the addition of Lasix. Lots of Tapits seem to do well with this move, and her dam Carolyn’s Cat (Forestry) was a speedy MGSW sprinter. Plus there are enough fillies in here who want to be forwardly placed that I think her late kick could prove very dangerous.
   The Play: Win bet on #8 Mufajaah (10-1). In the pick four, using her, #7 Fiftyshadesofgold (3-1) and #10 She’s a Tiger (5-2) as A’s; #4 Our Amazing Rose (3-1) and #5 Jojo Warrior (9-2) as B’s; #1 Whomping Willow (12-1) and #9 Milam (12-1) as C’s.

Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

KEE 3 - Alw, 7f (AWT) - Maybe it’s crazy to expect anything close to the 8-1 morning line quote on Ghostly Wonder, but well-regarded runners Twang and Green Mask should take their fair share of action, as could Augusta Road considering The Masters is this weekend (I know it sounds crazy, but watch him take more money than you’d normally expect). Dismissed as the longest shot in field of five first out at Arlington in June, 11-1 Ghostly Wonder dueled with the well-bet favorite before leaving him in the dust for a very easy 4 1/2-length score. Now I know what you’re thinking--beating four runners at Arlington isn’t any major accomplishment. But that favorite was Spot, who took the GII Swale last month. Two others won their next starts, including last-place finisher No Surrender, who resurfaced at Hawthorne Mar. 28 to romp by 6 1/2 lengths and earn a 92 Beyer. Ghostly Wonder earned a solid 79 Beyer for his win—which stacks up well with the rest of the field, and projects out to something in the 90 to 100 range by the old rule that young horses should improve 1 1/2 to 2 points per month of development. I’m not saying Ghostly Wonder is going to run a 100, but he can run a lot slower that that and still take this. Play: Win on #2 Ghostly Wonder (8-1).

KEE 9 - GI Madison S. - Turnbacks seem to be at a huge advantage going seven furlongs on the Keeneland Poly, and there are three in here that I strongly prefer over favorite Judy the Beauty, who I think is probably best going shorter. The most obvious of the three is Better Lucky--she’s a very nice turf miler, but is two-for-four sprinting and must be included. There’s also Byrama, who I’ve always believed is a better sprinter. She was very unlucky not to win this race last year as she was blocked for most of the stretch, and she makes the same cut back from a turf mile that she did last year, albeit for new connections this time around. The third horse I’m interested in is Eden Prairie. She cut back to just miss at 10-1 in the track-and-trip Raven Run in October, and has improved her speed figures markedly in three runs on the Fair Grounds lawn since. She also has the advantage of good tactical speed. Play: Win on #7 Byrama (6-1) OR #9 Eden Prairie (10-1) (whoever is higher in relation to their morning line), exacta box with #6 Better Lucky. DDs 6,7,9 w/ 8.

KEE 10 - GI Jenny Wiley S. - Speed has done extremely well on the turf so far this meet, and there isn’t an abundance of it here. Discreet Marq already would have been formidable anyway, but now she should be doubly tough over this surface. I was particularly impressed with her runner-up finish in the GI Matriarch last time Dec. 1. That was a solid field of older runners, and she gave locally based Egg Drop all she could handle to only get beat a nose. There are certainly others you have to use in exotics, but my money’s on Discreet Marq to make the lead and never look back. Play: Win on #8 Discreet Marq (6-1).

SA 6 - Alw, 7f - This is a pretty nice group of 3-year-olds. I really thought highly of Indexical last year—I loved his work at Barretts May, and though he could only manage a fifth-place finish with some trouble on debut at Del Mar in July, he returned the following month to break his maiden at 16-1 with the addition of blinker--two spots ahead of eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day. I can dismiss his close seventh after setting a slightly quick pace in the GI Del Mar Futurity, and turf route attempt when fifth last out in October’s Zuma Beach. Now he tries dirt for the first time, which seems likely to be his best surface, and should be right there with any improvement on his maiden breaker (I do worry that he’ll need a start off the bench, but the price should be right). Play: Win on #10 Indexical (12-1), exacta box with #4 Papa Turf, #8 Top Fortitude, #9 True Ten.

GP 9 - MSW, 1 1/16mT - This one’s admittedly a bit speculative, but Classy Kid will likely be an overlay in his turf debut for Mark Frostad. The 4-year-old showed early interest before fading to a distant fifth when unveiled sprinting here Feb. 28, but he never really figured to fire his best under those circumstances for a patient first-out trainer. By versatile, but usually better turf sire Lemon Drop Kid, Classy Kid is out of Grade III-winning turfer Dynamite Lass (Dynaformer), who never set foot on a main track. None of Dynamite Lass’s previous foals have been superstars, but they’ve definitely preferred routing and/or grass, and Classy Kid should follow that trend. Play: Win on #5 Classy Kid (20-1), exacta behind #1 Siete C, exacta box with #7 Knight of Valor, #8 Smart Spree, #10 Chunnel.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

AQU 8 - GIII Bay Shore S. - I picked Financial Mogul in the GIII Gotham S. as part of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby showdown, and mentioned (click here) after his even fourth-place finish that I thought he might appreciate a cut-back in distance. He gets it here, and should offer plenty of value. The dark bay romped by 5 1/2 lengths at Saratoga last time he tried seven panels, and he shows some quick works since the Gotham. I’ll also use Favorite Tale, who has crushed weaker competition at Parx in all three of his previous outings and could get a bit disrespected here; and another turn-back in The Admiral--his sprint debut and seven-furlong maiden breaker two back were both solid. I’m against favorite Kobe’s Back--he’s just way too obvious and inconsistent. Play: Win on #3 Financial Mogul (8-1), also using #6 Favorite Tale and #7 The Admiral in exotics.

AQU 11 - GI Carter H. - I love Clearly Now here. He was plagued by tough trips last season, including when finishing a very good second over track and trip 12 months ago in the Bay Shore. He showed what he could do with a better trip when he took Belmont’s GIII Bold Ruler H. with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure two back, but nearly went down after clipping heels on the turn in the GI Cigar Mile before settling for a solid fifth all things considered. Seven furlongs is probably Clearly Now’s ideal distance, and I look for him to sit just off the speed before pouncing. I’ll also hope to be alive in the pick four to last year’s Carter runner-up Sahara Sky as well as GI Malibu runner-up Central Banker. Play: (Large) Win on #2 Clearly Now (5-1), also using #1 Central Banker and #6 Sahara Sky in exotics.

SA 4 - MSW, 3yo, 6 1/2fT - I have a feeling that first-time starter Designated can run a bit. The Pam and Marty Wygod homebred is out of a mare who had some speed on the track before dropping talented sprinter Idiot Proof, a debut winner, Grade I winner on synth, Grade III winner on dirt and second in both the 2007 GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint and 2008 G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He also finished second in a Del Mar turf sprint stakes try. Another half-brother also won his debut and did most of his work in synthetic sprints. By a top turf (and overall) sire in Smart Strike, Designated shows some strong works up at Golden Gate for Jedd Josephson. Josephson has excellent numbers in two relevant categories. He’s two-for-four when shipping down to Santa Anita, including a 13-1 stakes upset down the hill here in 2011 and third with a 17-1 shot in an optional claimer a couple of weeks ago. Josephson also has very strong debut numbers--he’s 17% with a $3.75 ROI from a large sample size over the past five seasons (stats courtesy DRF Formulator). Included in those debut winners is last year’s champion juvenile Shared Belief, who Josephson unveiled for the Wygods up at Golden Gate in October before he was sold privately. Play: Win on #6 Designated (8-1), exacta box with #5 Footstepsinbronze.

SA 7 - GIII Providencia S. - Favorites Diversy Harbor and Nashoba’s Gold are both talented fillies with tons of upside, but it’s hard not to take a shot against them here considering the much different pace scenario they’ll face this time from when they ran one-two in the China Doll S. last out. The pace was very hotly contested in that one-mile affair, but there’s only one confirmed front-runner signed on here: One More. One More graduated against $75,000 maiden claimers two back over a mile of this turf course, and set a relatively unpressured pace last time to annex a course-and-distance (1 1/8 miles) allowance Mar. 13. She certainly didn’t have the toughest of trips that day, but I liked how she finished and think she’s a little better than the speed figure gap between her and the top two choices would suggest. Now, besides a win bet on One More, playing this race could get a little tricky. I’ll definitely use One More and the chalks in horizontal wagers, but I’ll also try to get some bombs into the trifecta. Longshots Full Ransom and Savings Account could find themselves closer to a slow pace this time and at least one of them could hit the board. So I’ll play 10 w/ 4,5,6,8 w/ 4,5,6,8, and 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 4,5,6,8. I’ll also play a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 5,6 superfecta (not sure there’s much point in playing a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 TRI). Play: Win on #10 One More (6-1) and the exotics outlined above.

KEE 9 - GI Ashland S. - I’m not expecting the 15-1 she is on the morning line, but Rosalind has a big shot in here. The Ken McPeek trainee was a late-charging second in the GI Darley Alcibiades over this track and trip in October, and put in a similar run to be third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies the following month. Fourth with a wide journey in the GI Hollywood Starlet, she had some excuses when third on seasonal debut behind last Saturday’s GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner In Tune at Gulfstream Feb. 27. Steadied pretty significantly early, Rosalind was caught behind a slow pace over a track that favored speed for much of the meet. She’ll get tons of pace this time, returns to a synthetic strip, and sports a local bullet work. I expect her to have a say at decent odds. Play: Win on #8 Rosalind (15-1).

OP 9 - GIII Fantasy S. - I like two horses here and I’m going to try to get both of them on the board. I have to give Kiss Moon one more chance to run back to her excellent allowance score here Jan. 11—she set a very hot pace that day, but kept right on going to win by 9 1/2 lengths. A puzzling seventh as the favorite in the Martha Washington S. after that, Kiss Moon showed a little more life to be fourth behind a few of these rivals in the roughly run GIII Honeybee S. I’m not sure why Kiss Moon hasn’t been closer to the lead in her last two, but I expect she’ll be hard-sent this time—she adds blinkers and sports two quick works in the interim. Mufajaah returns on short rest since taking her second straight Mar. 23. She just has the look of a really talented horse—she won at will last out and there’s no reason she can’t handle the step up in class. I’m curious to see how hard they bet her. Play: Win on #5 Kiss Moon (12-1), exacta box with #4 Mufajaah. Trifectas 4,5 w/ ALL w/ 4,5.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Handicapping the Transylvania

--Brian DiDonato

   Keeneland’s Spring Meet kicks off with a particularly interesting renewal of the GIII Transylvania S. Friday. A total of 12 sophomore turfers line up for the 1 1/16-mile feature, and a trio of longshots caught my eye. 
   Irish import Can’thelpbelieving was second in his first North American start for Graham Motion going an additional sixteenth of a mile here in October, and broke through with a very impressive turn-of-foot while adding blinkers and Lasix at Gulfstream Jan. 11 (video). Stepped up for that venue’s GIII Palm Beach S. after that Mar. 1, the bay was asked to close over a surface that had been playing extremely kind to speed, and could only muster a close fifth while covering his final furlong quicker than every rival but one (video). Can’thelpbelieving might prove more effective over longer distances than he’ll get to work with here, but he figures to get plenty of pace this time and his 8-1 morning-line quote definitely offers value. 
   Another intriguing off-the-pace chance is Woodfield Springs. The son of MGSW Communique (Smart Strike) (winner of the GIII Bewitch S. here in 2008) ran on well to finish third over yielding Gulfstream grass first up Dec. 28. Switched to the main track Jan. 25, the G. Watts Humphrey, Jr. homebred set the pace before settling for fourth—not bad considering a pedigree that definitely leans heavily toward turf and synthetic (he’s by Raven’s Pass). Rusty Arnold gave Woodfield Springs Lasix for the first time before a Mar. 1 return to the turf, and while the bay did enjoy an easy ground-saving trip, he looked very good reeling in the pacesetter en route to a 1 1/2-length graduation (video). Connections were considering the GI Blue Grass S. for Woodfield Springs, but I wouldn’t necessarily take this decision to play it conservative as a negative—they likely just believe that his future is on the lawn, and they’re probably right. 
   Medal Count broke his maiden by daylight on the Ellis main track in September, but it would come as no surprise if the son of Dynaformer proved best on the lawn. His lone grass attempt was a victory, albeit by dead-heat against a fairly average group of optional claimers in Hallandale Jan. 12 (video). It seemed as if the 2-1 favorite was ridden a bit over-confidently that day, and he likely would have won by a more comfortable margin if asked earlier and if not for some mild interference. Thrown back in the deep end after that in the GII Fountain of Youth S. Feb. 22, Medal Count was fifth while improving by four points on the Beyer Speed Figure he earned for the Jan. 12. optional claimer. I like that progression considering Medal Count was probably in too deep and on the wrong surface last time, and there’s no reason he can’t step forward returning to the grass. 
   The play: I’ll bet #12 Can’thelpbelieving to win at 6-1+, use 1,3,12 in pick 3s and 4s, and box all three in the exacta. 

Follow Brian on twitter at @BDiDonatoTDN

Understanding McGaughey's Recent First-out Success

--@BDiDonatoTDN

   As I watched 6-1 Run of the River provide Shug McGaughey with his third 3-year-old debut winner in March at Gulfstream Sunday it dawned on me: clearly the generally accepted notion that all of the Hall of Famer’s horses need a start before showing up with their best is inaccurate, and likely producing overlays on extremely well-bred, often better-than-average horses who are in fact ready to fire right out of the box.
   When it comes to 2-year-olds, there’s no doubt that McGaughey’s reputation as a trainer whose newcomers need one first is accurate. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he’s just 3-for-74 (4%) with a paltry $0.26 ROI with juvenile first-time starters. Those three winners were Forward March, a $2.05-million KEESEP yearling and grandson of Miesque who won like a good thing at Monmouth in 2011, but never quite lived up to his original hype; and Honor Code and Top Billing, McGaughey’s top two 2014 Derby prospects who unfortunately were both knocked off the trail recently with injury. It would seem an occasional McGaughey trainee can overcome his trainer’s early patience at two (either on talent, his natural precocity, whatever), but it’s certainly a rarity.
   It’s a different story with 3-year-olds—especially this season. McGaughey has won at 11% with a take-out beating ROI of $1.95 with his sophomore firsters overall in the past five years. Those numbers jump up significantly at Gulfstream, where Shug’s fresh faces win at 21% (43% in the money) with a $3.82 ROI. A good chunk of the profit came over the past month. So far in 2014, McGaughey’s 3-year-old firsters are three-for-nine with a second and two thirds (33% win/66% in the money), good for a very strong $4.33 ROI (including 5-1 Peter Island Mar. 1 and 9-2 La Madrina Mar. 29 in addition to Run of the River). It may also be worth noting that two of the three McGaughey 3-year-old firsters who didn’t hit the board at Gulfstream were by far the two longest prices—perhaps suggesting higher expectations for those who ran well over those who didn’t.
   Usually when I stumble upon an interesting statistic I like to come up with some sort of logical, qualitative explanation for the situation to make it less likely that I’m just chasing variance. There’s definitely one here, and it lies in making the distinction between a trainer being patient in getting a horse ready for his first race vs. getting him ready for his entire career.
   Since McGaughey juvenile newcomers at places like Saratoga fail to win first out, bettors assume that all of Shug’s firsters will be equally unprepared for their first starts. But what McGaughey does isn’t necessarily bring horses around slowly in relation to their first race—it’s so that they’ll peak later on—i.e. as 3-year-olds. So the 2-year-olds that debuted at Saratoga may not have been specifically less prepared to win first out than the winning sophomores at Gulfstream. They were just unveiled earlier on in the process and therefore required the additional conditioning gained from racing before being at their best. The 3-year-old winners might have been later-developing types or have had minor issues that kept them from racing, but since the goal was still likely for them to peak at three, they were either more cranked-up than the average McGaughey firster or had been in training for a significant enough amount of time that they were further along than their lack of a race would suggest—like in the case of Run of the River, who has published works in New York all the way back to last July.
   Just out of curiosity, I went back through all of McGaughey’s graded stakes winners from the past five years who began their career with him and those runners required an average of 3.5 starts to break their maidens (I’d guess the average for all graded stakes winners is significantly lower). Last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Orb, for example, earned his diploma fourth out—so did top turfer Point of Entry. So there’s no doubt that McGaughey’s reputation as one who brings them along slowly (and succeeds with that methodology) is accurate, but it would still be wrong to assume that his later-debuting horses aren’t closer to hitting their best stride than their race-less record would suggest. Ill-fated multiple Grade I-winning 3-year-old filly Pine Island comes to mind--she was unveiled as a sophomore by McGaughey in March of 2006, and promptly blew up the tote at 28-1 before posting a 5-3-2-0 record in her next five tries.
   I’d keep an eye on any McGaughey firsters who debut in the next month or so in New York or at Keeneland as potential bets for the reasons discussed above. Then I’d probably avoid the very late-developing 3-year-olds and certainly his 2-year-olds. But keep a very close eye on how McGaughey’s sophomore firsters do next year at Gulfstream—there’s a very good chance they’ll outrun their odds and show a flat-bet profit once again.

McGaughey firster La Madrina rallies impressively to earn 'TDN Rising Star' status at Gulfstream Saturday
A Coglianese

 

A Tale of Two Trips

--Brian DiDonato

   In both Grade I races run for 2-year-olds this past Saturday--the Champagne and the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity--one can make the argument that the runner-up was best. One trip was obvious, so much so that it will be blown out of proportion going forward, while the other is far less likely to be picked up on by the wagering public.
   Anyone who saw Honor Code's late run in the Champagne was rightfully impressed (click for chart and video). Devoid of early speed, the hulking son of A.P. Indy was spun very wide into the stretch (seven or eight paths by solid third-place finisher Ride On Curlin) and flew home to fall a neck short of speedy fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Havana. It was a move that just looked so good visually that it only served to add to the hype surrounding a horse who seems to already rest atop many a 2014 Derby list.
   But when all the factors are considered, it might be a performance that looked better to the naked eye than it does when subjected to scrutiny. For starters, Havana worked hard every step of the way, pressing an above-average pace from second, while Honor Code conserved his energy at the back of the pack. It's telling that pacesetter Debt Ceiling finished last, while Grand Arrival, next-closest early, finished second-to-last.
   According to Trakus data, Honor Code covered 20 ft. (~2.4 lengths) more than Havana in the Champagne, but where he covered the extra ground is important. The dark bay didn't come off the rail until he started to approach the stretch. Ground loss at this point in a race is almost never the detriment that some believe it is. In addition to keeping a horse out of trouble and free to lengthen his stride, it allows him to build up additional momentum (I'm certainly no scientist, but it's centrifugal force or something). The wider a horse (or a bike, ice skater, etc.) turns into a straight, the more inertia they'll carry. So while a horse who goes wide into the lane has to cover more ground, they make up for it with the additional forward momentum they generate by a larger arc. Ground loss is definitely a major trip factor at other points of a race, but it is much less of a detriment late on the home turn and into the straight.

Honor Code (outside) falls just short of Havana
NYRA/Coglianese

   Breeders' Futurity runner-up Smarty's Echo, meanwhile, ran very well to be second, all things considered (click for chart and video). The 11-1 shot was fairly close to an extremely fast pace (25 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter), and never found cover. He was three or four wide at best throughout the two-turn contest, and traveled 23 feet more (~2.7 lengths) than the eventual 2 3/4-length winner We Miss Artie, who drafted early before tipping out under a perfect John Velazquez ride. (Interestingly, Horse of the Year Wise Dan went down at 1-2 one race later in the Shadwell 'Turf' Mile with a Smarty's Echo-like ride from Velazquez).
   Smarty's Echo only earned a 65 Beyer Speed Figure in what looks like a mediocre renewal of the Breeders' Futurity, but he did earn an 82 Beyer previously for his Arlington maiden breaker, and figures to offer some value wherever he shows up next. He ran much better on Saturday than he will be given credit for. Honor Code, on the other hand, possesses a world of upside, but everyone sees it. He's certainly good, but will definitely be overbet next time--perhaps so much so that he could be favored over Havana if he shows up at the Breeders' Cup. Horses with Honor Code's profile often end up being money burners, and Honor Code seems like he could be one of those types.

Saturday Two-year-old Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato


There are quite a few interesting 2-year-old stakes to be run this Saturday, and with Showdown at the Spa withdrawals setting in, I thought it would be good to give a few opinions. Here goes. . . listed in order of strongest opinion to weakest.

Churchill Downs Race 7 - GIII Iroquois - There's a lot of hype surrounding Ride On Curlin, and though he may prove that good, I'm not sure that what seem like key races that he comes out of were as strong as they look. Plus now he'll be asked to stretch out three furlongs with other pace present. I really like Honorable Judge. Though his wide run when romping first out over one mile at Parx Aug. 11 probably looks a little better than it should because of how frequently that track has a dead rail, he did it the right way from off a slow pace and looks like he'll run all day. The last time trainer Butch Reid shipped to Churchill was with Honorable Judge's full-brother Afleet Again in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Marathon, and that runner went ahead and blew up the tote at 41-1. Afleet Again had previously finished second in the 2010 Whirlaway and took that year's GIII Withers S. at 24-1, so Reid has a pretty solid ROI when shipping away from him Pennsylvania base. Since a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race for two years olds this time of year offers a major stamina test, I'll take the runner who clearly won't mind any amount of real estate thrown at him. I'll also get extra greedy and try to get Ride on Curlin out of the exacta with Tapiture, runner-up to GI Hopeful winner Strong Mandate on debut; and the Dale Romans-trained duo of Cleburne and Cee 'n O, who both impressed me visually in their respective maiden breakers.

Arlington Race 9 - Arlington-Washington Lassie - Like most 2-year-old races this time of year, solving this race seems to hinge on determining which speedy maiden breakers can switch off and carry their speed over more ground. I'm most interested in Istanford, who is the lone winner at this (approximate) distance thanks to a five-length front-running romp at about one mile on the turf here Aug. 18. Though she set a quick opening quarter of :23.50, the Mike Stidham trainee was able to slow things down for the middle part of the race before showing off a powerful stride in the lane. Those who chased her finished far back, but I'm not expecting Istanford to be up on the pace with a number of sprint stretch-outs signed on here. Look for her to settle early and try to mow them down. While she might go favored, I can't dismiss Maria Maria, whose field-best 81 Beyer Speed Figure was earned over seven furlongs here back on July 19. The extra time between races should alleviate any chance of regression and, though the bottom of her pedigree contains a lot of sprinters, she is by Curlin so an additional furlong should be within her scope. The Colonel Johns figure to appreciate more ground, so I'll also toss in Sweetsoutherndame, who was second behind a slow pace in the Ontario Debutante last out Aug. 10.

Arlington Race 7 - GIII Arlington-Washington Futurity - Whyruawesome may be a bit obvious off his super-impressive troubled-trip debut, but I'm hoping his under-the-radar connections keep the price inflated. Pinched back to last in his seven-panel unveiling here Aug. 16, the 17-1 shot dragged his way into contention and reeled in a very loose leader with relative ease in the stretch despite lugging in badly. Whyruawesome was far off a very quick opening quarter, but the eventual runner-up still enjoyed an easier trip--he tracked in second before inheriting a loose lead when the early pacesetter blew the turn. Even though he cost himself several lengths by being extremely green in the stretch, Whyruawesome covered his final furlong in :12.74 compared to :13.43 for the next two finishers. The drawbacks are obvious: he clearly isn't the most mentally mature 2-year-old considering the way he behaved last time despite blinkers and having already been gelded, and it is a short turnaround from his debut. But something like 4-1 or 5-1 on probably the most most talented runner in the race is worth the gamble.

Churchill Downs Race 6 - GII Pocahontas - She doesn't look fast enough on paper, but I think it's pretty interesting that Steve Asmussen has opted to run Nevada Deputy here. She likely would have been a short price and tough to beat in the Happy Ticket S. at Louisiana Downs off her nightmare trip in that venue's Donnie Wilhite Memorial S. last time, but instead he goes for dirt and much deeper waters. At a big price, she seems worth a flyer.

Louisiana Downs Race 8 - Happy Ticket S. - Multi-millioniare sprinter Benny the Bull doesn't exactly strike me as a promising sire of turf routers, but Love Bullet is out of a Stormy Atlantic mare and has some other things going for her off a sharp debut tally sprinting over this main track. I really liked the way she got over the synthetic track once she switched leads before selling for $20,000 at OBSAPR, and her trainer Scotty McNair is three-for-seven with a $6.20 ROI with first-time turfers over the past five years according to DRF Formulator. Perhaps she'll be a pace casualty, but I definitely wouldn't be surprised if she takes another step forward here.

Was there a bias on Belmont day?

--Brian DiDonato

With a drying out strip on Saturday, many were surely keeping a close eye on how Big Sandy was playing leading up to the Belmont S. Let’s take a closer look at the trip and pace dynamics at play on the dirt throughout the card:

Click race number for chart, race details for video.

Race 1 - 6f Alw/OC - track condition: muddy (sealed) - 29-1 longshot Cay to Pomeroy set a pressured, but only slightly above-average pace from slightly off the rail and repelled several bids, but couldn’t hold off an impressive move from 10-1 Dehere of the Cat. The winner was in the two or three path early and swung far out into the center of the track in the stretch. Odds-on favorite Master Cip pressed the pace from the four path, but settled for third.

Race 2 - 7f Alw/OC - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Odea, a 7 3/4-length allowance romper in the mud two back, was bet down to 5-2 favoritism. From the inside, he set an above-average opening quarter of :22.41 (5 points above par on Moss Pace Figure scale), but slowed things down to :23.30 for his second quarter. Despite the breather, Odea finished last. Winner Integrity (3-1) pressed the pace in third from the three path, while Slan Abhaile chased from second and the two path and checked in third. Runner-up Bad Hombre was in the two or three path in midpack early and came widest of all in the lane.

Race 3 - 7f NYB MSW (off the turf) - track condition: muddy (sealed) - 12-1 Ah Gaga, who had never set the pace in any of her previous eight starts, was hard-ridden from the gate by new rider Mike Smith (eventual Belmont winner) to grab early command. She set a quick pace (:22.67 opening quarter--8 Moss points above par) from the two or three path and kept finding more to hold on. Perhaps trying to bear in slightly in the lane, Smith gave Ah Gaga plenty of left-handed encouragement and she drifted out, possibly herding some of her pursuers. Runner-up Concealed (5-1) stalked close while wide; third-place finisher Mononoke (13-1) pressed Ah Gaga from her inside.

Race 4 - 1m NYB MSW - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Second timer El Genio, who opened short and remained well below his 12-1 morning line at 5-1 at the off while adding blinkers and Lasix off a dull debut, set an above-average pace (+9 opening quarter, +5 half) along the rail. Can’t Catch Me Now (15-1), who had rarely shown speed in 12 previous efforts, pressed the pace while outside of El Genio, and ultimately wore him down in the lane to prevail by a half-length. Bernardo, who was also very well-bet down to 4-1 (15-1 morning line--scratching of 4-5 ML favorite obviously had impact on odds) tracked from the two path in midpack and angled out to finish a close third.

Race 5 - 1m MSW - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Tenth-time starter Moreno, who had run one solid race two back in an otherwise unspectacular career, was turning back 3/16 of a mile, switching back to dirt and adding blinkers. Given an 8-1 chance (15-1 ml) in a race that appeared on paper to have other speed, the Eric Guillot trainee (who broke through the gate before the start) controlled the pace throughout through an easy opening quarter and quick second quarter and reported home an easy 6 1/4-length winner. It was a merry-go-round affair where the top three traveled that way from start to finish.

Race 6 - Easy Goer S., 1 1/16m - track condition: good - Chalk Power Broker, a GISW at this distance who was coming off a sloppy-track allowance win at the trip, set an average pace with company while kept in the two path before drawing off to a 3 3/4-length tally. Runner-up Micromanage tracked from the pocket, was shuffled back while waiting for room on the turn, but came with a nice run up the inside to get second. Irsaal, midpack early and always wide, challenged Power Broker on the home turn, but was quickly denied by the winner and had to settle for third.

Race 7 - GII True North H., 6f - track condition: good (borderline fast) - Fast Bullet, part of a 4-5 Zayat entry, set an easy pace (:22.48 opening quarter 10 points below par, :45.16 half 7 points below par on Moss scale) from the two path and reported home an easy 2 1/2-length winner. He earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, a new career top by one point. Entry-mate Justin Phillip saved ground throughout from just off the pace and proved second best. The rest of the short field didn’t do much shifting from start to finish.

Race 9 - GII Woody Stephen S., 7f - track condition: fast - The freaky fast Let Em Shine did what was expected--he set an extremely quick pace (:21.99 opening quarter was 15 points above par, :44.73 half was 10 points above par--he was running 12 lengths faster than par at 7f for the opening quarter). He was able to save ground despite his far-outside draw, and understandably succumbed to his early exertions very late to be beaten only a length. Enjoying his second meltdown pace set-up in a row, winner Forty Tales was always very wide and came from second-to-last early. Runner-up Declan’s Warrior saved ground off the pace and tipped out, but was kept in slightly by the winner and had to angle back in between horses. Clearly Now, always fairly close and wide, didn’t do himself any favors by failing to switch leads and checked in third.

Race 11 - GI Belmont S., 1 1/2m - track condition: fast - I was among those who predicted a pace more like the Derby than the Preakness, and while that was the case, the actual result wasn’t. Palace Malice and Oxbow--who were part of that insane collapse in the Derby--were both wide here and just off crazy opening splits of :23.11 and :46.66 set by no-hoper Frac Daddy and somewhat surprisingly underbet Freedom Child. The half was 20 points above par pace figure-wise (compared to a similar +19 Derby half set by Palace Malice). While the actual pacesetters eventually dropped out to finish last and second-to-last, Oxbow and Palace Malice inherited the lead midway on the turn and were never seriously threatened by the closers, with Palace Malice--who did a little less of the dirty work--leading home the staggerfest. Favored Orb made an eye-catching move from well out of it, but flattened to be third. 

So was the track speed biased? It certainly appears that way--horses who were ridden aggressively early fared well and outran their odds on the early part of the card. The outside also seemed like the place to be (jockeys were pretty willing to lose ground and stay off the rail). Not much can be gleaned from the first two stakes that were run, as both were won by short-priced favorites who enjoyed fairly easy leads (especially Fast Bullet).

Things get much less straightforward for the Woody Stephens and Belmont, however. Absolutely extreme early paces in both those races presumably counteracted the bias (assuming it was still present), so it’s hard to really know how to treat performers from those two races.

Let Em Shine will obviously garner plenty of respect off of his brave performance in the Woody Stephens, and the pace was so off-the-charts that positive treatment would be justified despite how the track was playing--especially considering that he was down on the inside. Still, Let Em Shine no longer looks impervious to pace pressers, and I’d be willing to bet against him going forward with other quality speed signed on--especially at seven panels. I’ll also be very much against winner Forty Tales next time--his two stakes victories and his stakes runner-up finish have all come with extremely advantageous set-ups. Even if he ran against the grain Saturday, he made his move on what was likely the best part of the track.

I don’t want anybody coming out of the Belmont, frankly. The performances by Palace Malice and Oxbow were both impressive from a pace perspective and bias-aided at the same time, I wonder how each of them will come out of the Triple Crown. They were both up on two of the most extreme paces you’ll see and we’ve seen time and time again how the rigors of the Triple Crown impact its contestants. Orb has been exposed twice now, but he will always carry the “Derby winner” banner, which guarantees he will be overbet for the rest of his career.

Members of this sophomore crop seem destined to take turns beating each other for the rest of the year, and I look forward to some nice wagering opportunities in races like the Haskell and Travers. Micromanage interests me off his runner-up finish in the Easy Goer, and Normandy Invasion (who moved way too soon in the Derby) and Itsmyluckyday will have benefitted from freshenings.

Belmont Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

1. Frac Daddy - Pro: These connections did dead-heat for the win in last year’s Travers with impossible-to-have Golden Ticket, and conditioner Ken McPeek did upset the 2002 renewal of this with 70-1 shot Sarava. Con: Where are his good races? Hasn’t come close to running back to maiden romp in November and his second in the Arkansas Derby was a total clunk up job. Verdict: Not seeing it.

2. Freedom Child - Pro: His break-out romp in the Peter Pan last time was very impressive and he may be peaking at the right time. Has the ever-dangerous fresh face angle on his side and has looked good in the mornings. Con: The Peter Pan was run over a sloppy track, and while similar conditions are very possible Saturday, it’s probably best to look at that performance with at least a little skepticism. Pace may pose a serious problem, as on pace figures he appears likely to get himself in trouble early. Verdict: Wouldn’t toss completely, as he clearly has some talent and upside, but will only use defensively as the pace appears like it might do him in.

3. Overanalyze - Pro: Does have two graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, and one race that’s close to fast enough. He may have had the sneakiest trip of anyone in the Derby while finishing 11th--was shuffled back to last on the far turn, but made a nice run in the lane despite additional traffic trouble. Con: His pedigree certainly doesn’t scream 1 1/2 miles, but another son of Dixie Union (who I completely tossed, partially because of his pedigree) did win the Belmont last year. Verdict: Have never been a fan of his at all and don’t think he’s anything special, but he fits the profile of a horse who could make some noise here and I’m willing to excuse his very obvious pedigree concerns because of past success at nine furlongs--especially at double-digit odds.

4. Giant Finish - Pro: He’d be a nice Big Apple Triple candidate. Con: He already missed the first leg of the Big Apple Triple last Saturday. Verdict: No.

5. Orb - Pro: The positives are pretty obvious for him--he should get pace again, he might get slop again, and he figures to love the distance. Con: The jury was still out on him a bit going into the Derby, and while most of us (myself included) were willing to buy the hype after that race, it seems we were much too forgiving of the dream pace set-up he and the other on-the-board finishers enjoyed. Now can you really take him as a favorite off that mediocre (at best) effort in the Preakness? Verdict: Think he’ll be an underlay, but he’s going to get very similar circumstances to those that helped him garner all the hype. Certainly can’t toss.

6. Incognito - Pro: Obviously bred for this, being by A.P. Indy (Belmont winner and sire of a Belmont winner) out of Octave, winner of the local GI CCA Oaks at 10 furlongs. Overcame a world of trouble to beat older (weak) optional claiming foes two back, and was simply never put in a position to win last time in the Peter Pan. It was really a perplexing ride--he was dragged far out of it and never allowed to run until it was much too late. The grey did fly home, however, and galloped out in front. A rider change can’t hurt. Con: Somewhat immature and may find his own trouble, plus he does need to run much faster. Morning impressions have been a bit negative. Verdict: I’m playing him--he’s super dirtied up trip wise and has the best pedigree in the race for 1 1/2 miles.

7. Oxbow - Pro: He finally put it all together last time, and earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure vs. Orb’s 104 for the Derby. His stout pedigree is well-documented. Con: I know it’s been fashionable to call the pace Oxbow set in the Preakness “fair” rather than “slow,” but I’m not so sure--the Moss Pace Figures have the opening half five points below par. If that’s fair, it’s definitely on the slow side of fair. And isn’t the pace guaranteed to be faster this time? Can’t see Stevens taking back considering how well the horse ran when sent. Verdict: A classic “last time was the time” horse.

8. Midnight Taboo - Pro: Probably has upside considering how lightly raced he is. Dam is a half to the dam of Belmont winner and Horse of the Year Point Given. Con: May not have the foundation to go 12 furlongs just yet. Did have some traffic trouble when second in allowance company last time, but didn’t really seem to have the punch to get himself out of trouble. Verdict: Connections giving off a vibe that he’s running just to run, so hard to have much faith in him.

9. Revolutionary - Pro: Hasn’t been off the board in his seven-race career, and handled the slop fine last time in the Derby. His sire (War Pass) wouldn’t have gotten the Belmont distance, but he’s out of an Alabama winner and gets plenty of stamina from his dam’s side. Con: Was clearly third best in the Derby--covered less ground than both Orb and Golden Soul, and was simply out-kicked by a 34-1 shot. Hasn’t looked spectacular in the mornings. Verdict: Called him “the most likely winner” of the Derby and he ran ok, but now I’m tossing. Go figure.

10. Will Take Charge - Pro: Everyone saw the trouble he had in the Derby--was moving right with Orb before getting stopped by Verrazano. Is a very large horse with a grinding style that is conducive to Big Sandy and this race. Going third off the lay-off now after being trained up to the Derby. Con: Never did any running in the Preakness--just never really seemed to get going while well off the pace. Verdict: Using him again--this might be the race where he shows up at a huge price.

11. Vyjack - Pro: He’s a really nice horse up to about 1 1/16 miles. Was very wide in the Derby. Con: Has given zero indication that he wants to go this far. Verdict: Probably would win the Woody Stephens, but this is five furlongs farther.

12. Palace Malice - Pro: Obviously, you can’t take his Derby at face value considering the insane pace he set. Con: While he’s bred to run long, has always struck me as a horse with serious distance limitations. Everyone’s acting like he’s going to turn into Silky Sullivan losing the blinkers, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not again close to the pace, which figures to be legitimate. Verdict: He’ll ultimately prove better going much shorter than this--possibly on grass.

13. Unlimited Budget - Pro: Has never run a bad race, and her only loss last time in the Oaks came when she was close to a quick pace. Con: Still, runner-up Beholder was closer to that pace, and Unlimited Budget just didn’t show much kick. Not sure how much stamina she gets from the bottom half of her pedigree. Don’t buy the notion that the colts and fillies this year are evenly matched. Verdict: Nice horse, but probably the underlay of the race on the morning line at 8-1. Not using.

14. Golden Soul - Pro: Gave him a bit of a chance to clunk up and hit the board in the Derby, and he did. Should appreciate even more distance and might get identical circumstances here. Con: Did have a lot go his way in the Derby, and hard to take him at a much shorter price than he was last time. Verdict: No real reason he can’t hit the board again as this may have the makings of a Derby repeat, but expect him to find at least one better.

How I’m playing: Would like to be alive to as many as possible in here as this has chaos race written all over it. In the actual race, I’ll bet Incognito to win at what figures to be 20-1+. Will also play an exacta box of Incognito, Overanalyze and Will Take Charge. Will probably work in Orb and Golden Soul as well, but the Belmont’s a race to swing for the fences in, so I’ll be looking for a nice $800+ pay-out for every $2.