The Case Against 'Chrome': Handicapping the Preakness

--Brian DiDonato



Victor Espinoza celebrates aboard California Chrome
Horsephotos

   When a lower-priced horse wins the Derby, we tend to think that all the questions leading up to the first Saturday in May have been answered. Take last year, for example. Orb seemed off his Florida form like he could be the best 3-year-old in that crop, so when he won the Derby by a convincing margin, the result appeared to be definitive. Most (myself included) dismissed, or at least minimized, the fact that the Derby was run over a sloppy surface and featured a complete meltdown pace. Orb had been anointed the latest sure-thing Triple Crown winner (proud to say I don’t think I went quite that far). Then Derby also-rans Oxbow (15-1), Palice Malice (13-1) and Will Take Charge (9-1) took the Preakness, Belmont and Travers, respectively, with Orb going down at low odds each time, and things looked a whole lot less cut-and-dry.
   There is the distinct possibility of a similar phenomenon occurring this year. Yes, California Chrome had the best form coming into the Derby, and as he pulled away from his competition I thought to myself, “Okay, he’s just too good for these horses.” But then the timer didn’t stop until 2:03.66, and everyone’s figures came back slow. And then I watched the replay a few times and realized that the favorite enjoyed a dream trip in a race that was full of rough ones.
   Nothing about the Derby necessarily proved that California Chrome isn’t a stand-out in this bunch, but the same reasons that were there to play against him at 5-2 in the Derby are still there and now he's going to be 3-5 off of two weeks' rest. The pace that never materialized over a speed-friendly surface at Churchill looks like a sure thing here, and that could certainly hurt the chalk’s chances. If he wins again, you tip your cap (and triple down in the Belmont), but I’m not ready to anoint California Chrome just yet--and I'm certainly not taking 3-5 on anybody ever.
   See below for my horse-by-horse analysis.

1. Dynamic Impact - 12-1 - Certainly took a while to break out of the maiden ranks, but as soon as he did, he went on to upset the GIII Illinois Derby. It’s hard to know how much credit to give him for that effort, though. He sat a pretty dream trip just off of heavily favored Midnight Hawk, and may have benefitted more from that one’s distance and mental limitations than anything else. Still, he’s by Tiznow out of a Smart Strike mare who, though she was a sprinter, hails from a stout enough family. So the distance looks up his alley, and he could be moving in the right direction. Might just sit the trip--not completely out of this.

2. General a Rod - 15-1 - Reminds me of last year’s Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday, but with maybe a less advantageous style in relation to the projected pace--unless he comes from farther back like he did in the Derby, which you’d think his connections might try. His Derby trip was definitely less than perfect. He was really running late, and would have likely been maybe fifth or sixth if not for running into traffic. Still came home fourth-fastest of anyone in the race (:26.26)--behind only California Chrome (:26.21), Commanding Curve (:25.57) and Ride On Curlin (:25.73)--so there’s reason to believe he can be an effective off-the-pace threat. He’s run fast before, and is definitely one to use.

3. California Chrome - 3-5 - Already touched on him above. . . Going to try to get him out of the exacta, but certainly won’t be surprised if he wins. Then I’ll just liquidate my assets and take the Tonalist/Danza Belmont exacta box for the max.

4. Ring Weekend - 20-1 - Seems very much up against it. His front-running upset win of the GII Tampa Bay Derby seems more like the exception than the rule, especially after a disappointing showing in the Calder Derby. Then he had to miss the Derby due to a fever. Can’t envision a scenario in which he can win--his best game is using his speed, and that’s just not going to work here.

5. Bayern - 10-1 - Set a super slow pace when he won that one-mile Santa Anita allowance by 15, and regressed when third as the chalk in the nine-panel GI Arkansas Derby. Hard to love his stretch antics that led to a disqualification when dropped back to a mile for the GIII Derby Trial. Likely pace casualty who doesn’t want to go this far.

6. Ria Antonia - 30-1 - Next. . .

7. Kid Cruz - 20-1 - This is who I’m going with, though it's starting to look like he's a bit of a wise guy horse. He still hasn’t run fast enough on speed figures, but his style fits the way this race has to be run if we’re going to beat California Chrome and he’s been very visually impressive since Linda Rice claimed him for $50,000 in November. He came from out of the clouds to take Laurel’s Private Terms S. Mar. 8 over 1 1/8 miles, and looked like a legitimate GI Wood Memorial threat before having to miss that race due to a sore shoulder. Seemingly no worse for wear, the Linda Rice trainee flew home again into a slow pace to take this venue’s Federico Tesio S. last time Apr. 19. A win over the strip can’t be a bad thing, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem. He still needs to prove he’s good enough, but he has upside and should get the right set-up.

8. Social Inclusion - 5-1 - Possibly the toughest read in the race. He’s shown just about as much talent as any 3-year-old this year, and it’s easy to excuse his tough-trip third in the Wood--he was wide, pressing a hot pace and still looked like the winner until very late. But isn’t he going to run into the same problem here? His connections seem to think his best chance is to try and run these horses off their feet--and maybe they’re right or at least they’re aware that Social Inclusion doesn’t want to rate--but they’re going to have to hope that all the other speeds decide not to send for that strategy to work. Not tossing out completely, as I think it’s hard to deny his talent and could see him winning a race like the Haskell later on this year, but fear he might be up against it again this time.

9. Pablo Del Monte - 20-1 - Seems very likely that he’s a better synthetic horse and doesn’t seem to want this trip. Adds more fuel to the fire.

10. Ride On Curlin - 10-1 - Somewhere between on the lead and dead last early is where he wants to be, but anyone who was surprised with Borel taking him back to last in the Derby just doesn’t pay attention. It may have actually been his best bet considering the potential there for a collapse, but the pace just didn’t quite materialize and he still ran on well to be seventh. He finished faster (:25.73) than everyone but Commanding Curve, and just needs to work out a trip one of these days.

The play: Win bet on Kid Cruz and an exacta box of Kid Cruz, Ride On Curlin, General a Rod and Dynamic Impact. Will also play a Social Inclusion over Kid Cruz exacta saver and will probably use the four from the exacta box, plus Social Inclusion and California Chrome in the pick four if I decide to play one on a somewhat uninspiring undercard.

Kid Cruz draws off in Pimlico's Federico Tesio S.
Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club

Was there a bias on Belmont day?

--Brian DiDonato

With a drying out strip on Saturday, many were surely keeping a close eye on how Big Sandy was playing leading up to the Belmont S. Let’s take a closer look at the trip and pace dynamics at play on the dirt throughout the card:

Click race number for chart, race details for video.

Race 1 - 6f Alw/OC - track condition: muddy (sealed) - 29-1 longshot Cay to Pomeroy set a pressured, but only slightly above-average pace from slightly off the rail and repelled several bids, but couldn’t hold off an impressive move from 10-1 Dehere of the Cat. The winner was in the two or three path early and swung far out into the center of the track in the stretch. Odds-on favorite Master Cip pressed the pace from the four path, but settled for third.

Race 2 - 7f Alw/OC - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Odea, a 7 3/4-length allowance romper in the mud two back, was bet down to 5-2 favoritism. From the inside, he set an above-average opening quarter of :22.41 (5 points above par on Moss Pace Figure scale), but slowed things down to :23.30 for his second quarter. Despite the breather, Odea finished last. Winner Integrity (3-1) pressed the pace in third from the three path, while Slan Abhaile chased from second and the two path and checked in third. Runner-up Bad Hombre was in the two or three path in midpack early and came widest of all in the lane.

Race 3 - 7f NYB MSW (off the turf) - track condition: muddy (sealed) - 12-1 Ah Gaga, who had never set the pace in any of her previous eight starts, was hard-ridden from the gate by new rider Mike Smith (eventual Belmont winner) to grab early command. She set a quick pace (:22.67 opening quarter--8 Moss points above par) from the two or three path and kept finding more to hold on. Perhaps trying to bear in slightly in the lane, Smith gave Ah Gaga plenty of left-handed encouragement and she drifted out, possibly herding some of her pursuers. Runner-up Concealed (5-1) stalked close while wide; third-place finisher Mononoke (13-1) pressed Ah Gaga from her inside.

Race 4 - 1m NYB MSW - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Second timer El Genio, who opened short and remained well below his 12-1 morning line at 5-1 at the off while adding blinkers and Lasix off a dull debut, set an above-average pace (+9 opening quarter, +5 half) along the rail. Can’t Catch Me Now (15-1), who had rarely shown speed in 12 previous efforts, pressed the pace while outside of El Genio, and ultimately wore him down in the lane to prevail by a half-length. Bernardo, who was also very well-bet down to 4-1 (15-1 morning line--scratching of 4-5 ML favorite obviously had impact on odds) tracked from the two path in midpack and angled out to finish a close third.

Race 5 - 1m MSW - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Tenth-time starter Moreno, who had run one solid race two back in an otherwise unspectacular career, was turning back 3/16 of a mile, switching back to dirt and adding blinkers. Given an 8-1 chance (15-1 ml) in a race that appeared on paper to have other speed, the Eric Guillot trainee (who broke through the gate before the start) controlled the pace throughout through an easy opening quarter and quick second quarter and reported home an easy 6 1/4-length winner. It was a merry-go-round affair where the top three traveled that way from start to finish.

Race 6 - Easy Goer S., 1 1/16m - track condition: good - Chalk Power Broker, a GISW at this distance who was coming off a sloppy-track allowance win at the trip, set an average pace with company while kept in the two path before drawing off to a 3 3/4-length tally. Runner-up Micromanage tracked from the pocket, was shuffled back while waiting for room on the turn, but came with a nice run up the inside to get second. Irsaal, midpack early and always wide, challenged Power Broker on the home turn, but was quickly denied by the winner and had to settle for third.

Race 7 - GII True North H., 6f - track condition: good (borderline fast) - Fast Bullet, part of a 4-5 Zayat entry, set an easy pace (:22.48 opening quarter 10 points below par, :45.16 half 7 points below par on Moss scale) from the two path and reported home an easy 2 1/2-length winner. He earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, a new career top by one point. Entry-mate Justin Phillip saved ground throughout from just off the pace and proved second best. The rest of the short field didn’t do much shifting from start to finish.

Race 9 - GII Woody Stephen S., 7f - track condition: fast - The freaky fast Let Em Shine did what was expected--he set an extremely quick pace (:21.99 opening quarter was 15 points above par, :44.73 half was 10 points above par--he was running 12 lengths faster than par at 7f for the opening quarter). He was able to save ground despite his far-outside draw, and understandably succumbed to his early exertions very late to be beaten only a length. Enjoying his second meltdown pace set-up in a row, winner Forty Tales was always very wide and came from second-to-last early. Runner-up Declan’s Warrior saved ground off the pace and tipped out, but was kept in slightly by the winner and had to angle back in between horses. Clearly Now, always fairly close and wide, didn’t do himself any favors by failing to switch leads and checked in third.

Race 11 - GI Belmont S., 1 1/2m - track condition: fast - I was among those who predicted a pace more like the Derby than the Preakness, and while that was the case, the actual result wasn’t. Palace Malice and Oxbow--who were part of that insane collapse in the Derby--were both wide here and just off crazy opening splits of :23.11 and :46.66 set by no-hoper Frac Daddy and somewhat surprisingly underbet Freedom Child. The half was 20 points above par pace figure-wise (compared to a similar +19 Derby half set by Palace Malice). While the actual pacesetters eventually dropped out to finish last and second-to-last, Oxbow and Palace Malice inherited the lead midway on the turn and were never seriously threatened by the closers, with Palace Malice--who did a little less of the dirty work--leading home the staggerfest. Favored Orb made an eye-catching move from well out of it, but flattened to be third. 

So was the track speed biased? It certainly appears that way--horses who were ridden aggressively early fared well and outran their odds on the early part of the card. The outside also seemed like the place to be (jockeys were pretty willing to lose ground and stay off the rail). Not much can be gleaned from the first two stakes that were run, as both were won by short-priced favorites who enjoyed fairly easy leads (especially Fast Bullet).

Things get much less straightforward for the Woody Stephens and Belmont, however. Absolutely extreme early paces in both those races presumably counteracted the bias (assuming it was still present), so it’s hard to really know how to treat performers from those two races.

Let Em Shine will obviously garner plenty of respect off of his brave performance in the Woody Stephens, and the pace was so off-the-charts that positive treatment would be justified despite how the track was playing--especially considering that he was down on the inside. Still, Let Em Shine no longer looks impervious to pace pressers, and I’d be willing to bet against him going forward with other quality speed signed on--especially at seven panels. I’ll also be very much against winner Forty Tales next time--his two stakes victories and his stakes runner-up finish have all come with extremely advantageous set-ups. Even if he ran against the grain Saturday, he made his move on what was likely the best part of the track.

I don’t want anybody coming out of the Belmont, frankly. The performances by Palace Malice and Oxbow were both impressive from a pace perspective and bias-aided at the same time, I wonder how each of them will come out of the Triple Crown. They were both up on two of the most extreme paces you’ll see and we’ve seen time and time again how the rigors of the Triple Crown impact its contestants. Orb has been exposed twice now, but he will always carry the “Derby winner” banner, which guarantees he will be overbet for the rest of his career.

Members of this sophomore crop seem destined to take turns beating each other for the rest of the year, and I look forward to some nice wagering opportunities in races like the Haskell and Travers. Micromanage interests me off his runner-up finish in the Easy Goer, and Normandy Invasion (who moved way too soon in the Derby) and Itsmyluckyday will have benefitted from freshenings.

Belmont Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

1. Frac Daddy - Pro: These connections did dead-heat for the win in last year’s Travers with impossible-to-have Golden Ticket, and conditioner Ken McPeek did upset the 2002 renewal of this with 70-1 shot Sarava. Con: Where are his good races? Hasn’t come close to running back to maiden romp in November and his second in the Arkansas Derby was a total clunk up job. Verdict: Not seeing it.

2. Freedom Child - Pro: His break-out romp in the Peter Pan last time was very impressive and he may be peaking at the right time. Has the ever-dangerous fresh face angle on his side and has looked good in the mornings. Con: The Peter Pan was run over a sloppy track, and while similar conditions are very possible Saturday, it’s probably best to look at that performance with at least a little skepticism. Pace may pose a serious problem, as on pace figures he appears likely to get himself in trouble early. Verdict: Wouldn’t toss completely, as he clearly has some talent and upside, but will only use defensively as the pace appears like it might do him in.

3. Overanalyze - Pro: Does have two graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, and one race that’s close to fast enough. He may have had the sneakiest trip of anyone in the Derby while finishing 11th--was shuffled back to last on the far turn, but made a nice run in the lane despite additional traffic trouble. Con: His pedigree certainly doesn’t scream 1 1/2 miles, but another son of Dixie Union (who I completely tossed, partially because of his pedigree) did win the Belmont last year. Verdict: Have never been a fan of his at all and don’t think he’s anything special, but he fits the profile of a horse who could make some noise here and I’m willing to excuse his very obvious pedigree concerns because of past success at nine furlongs--especially at double-digit odds.

4. Giant Finish - Pro: He’d be a nice Big Apple Triple candidate. Con: He already missed the first leg of the Big Apple Triple last Saturday. Verdict: No.

5. Orb - Pro: The positives are pretty obvious for him--he should get pace again, he might get slop again, and he figures to love the distance. Con: The jury was still out on him a bit going into the Derby, and while most of us (myself included) were willing to buy the hype after that race, it seems we were much too forgiving of the dream pace set-up he and the other on-the-board finishers enjoyed. Now can you really take him as a favorite off that mediocre (at best) effort in the Preakness? Verdict: Think he’ll be an underlay, but he’s going to get very similar circumstances to those that helped him garner all the hype. Certainly can’t toss.

6. Incognito - Pro: Obviously bred for this, being by A.P. Indy (Belmont winner and sire of a Belmont winner) out of Octave, winner of the local GI CCA Oaks at 10 furlongs. Overcame a world of trouble to beat older (weak) optional claiming foes two back, and was simply never put in a position to win last time in the Peter Pan. It was really a perplexing ride--he was dragged far out of it and never allowed to run until it was much too late. The grey did fly home, however, and galloped out in front. A rider change can’t hurt. Con: Somewhat immature and may find his own trouble, plus he does need to run much faster. Morning impressions have been a bit negative. Verdict: I’m playing him--he’s super dirtied up trip wise and has the best pedigree in the race for 1 1/2 miles.

7. Oxbow - Pro: He finally put it all together last time, and earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure vs. Orb’s 104 for the Derby. His stout pedigree is well-documented. Con: I know it’s been fashionable to call the pace Oxbow set in the Preakness “fair” rather than “slow,” but I’m not so sure--the Moss Pace Figures have the opening half five points below par. If that’s fair, it’s definitely on the slow side of fair. And isn’t the pace guaranteed to be faster this time? Can’t see Stevens taking back considering how well the horse ran when sent. Verdict: A classic “last time was the time” horse.

8. Midnight Taboo - Pro: Probably has upside considering how lightly raced he is. Dam is a half to the dam of Belmont winner and Horse of the Year Point Given. Con: May not have the foundation to go 12 furlongs just yet. Did have some traffic trouble when second in allowance company last time, but didn’t really seem to have the punch to get himself out of trouble. Verdict: Connections giving off a vibe that he’s running just to run, so hard to have much faith in him.

9. Revolutionary - Pro: Hasn’t been off the board in his seven-race career, and handled the slop fine last time in the Derby. His sire (War Pass) wouldn’t have gotten the Belmont distance, but he’s out of an Alabama winner and gets plenty of stamina from his dam’s side. Con: Was clearly third best in the Derby--covered less ground than both Orb and Golden Soul, and was simply out-kicked by a 34-1 shot. Hasn’t looked spectacular in the mornings. Verdict: Called him “the most likely winner” of the Derby and he ran ok, but now I’m tossing. Go figure.

10. Will Take Charge - Pro: Everyone saw the trouble he had in the Derby--was moving right with Orb before getting stopped by Verrazano. Is a very large horse with a grinding style that is conducive to Big Sandy and this race. Going third off the lay-off now after being trained up to the Derby. Con: Never did any running in the Preakness--just never really seemed to get going while well off the pace. Verdict: Using him again--this might be the race where he shows up at a huge price.

11. Vyjack - Pro: He’s a really nice horse up to about 1 1/16 miles. Was very wide in the Derby. Con: Has given zero indication that he wants to go this far. Verdict: Probably would win the Woody Stephens, but this is five furlongs farther.

12. Palace Malice - Pro: Obviously, you can’t take his Derby at face value considering the insane pace he set. Con: While he’s bred to run long, has always struck me as a horse with serious distance limitations. Everyone’s acting like he’s going to turn into Silky Sullivan losing the blinkers, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not again close to the pace, which figures to be legitimate. Verdict: He’ll ultimately prove better going much shorter than this--possibly on grass.

13. Unlimited Budget - Pro: Has never run a bad race, and her only loss last time in the Oaks came when she was close to a quick pace. Con: Still, runner-up Beholder was closer to that pace, and Unlimited Budget just didn’t show much kick. Not sure how much stamina she gets from the bottom half of her pedigree. Don’t buy the notion that the colts and fillies this year are evenly matched. Verdict: Nice horse, but probably the underlay of the race on the morning line at 8-1. Not using.

14. Golden Soul - Pro: Gave him a bit of a chance to clunk up and hit the board in the Derby, and he did. Should appreciate even more distance and might get identical circumstances here. Con: Did have a lot go his way in the Derby, and hard to take him at a much shorter price than he was last time. Verdict: No real reason he can’t hit the board again as this may have the makings of a Derby repeat, but expect him to find at least one better.

How I’m playing: Would like to be alive to as many as possible in here as this has chaos race written all over it. In the actual race, I’ll bet Incognito to win at what figures to be 20-1+. Will also play an exacta box of Incognito, Overanalyze and Will Take Charge. Will probably work in Orb and Golden Soul as well, but the Belmont’s a race to swing for the fences in, so I’ll be looking for a nice $800+ pay-out for every $2.

Preakness Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GI Preakness S. (by post position):

Orb - Nothing particularly interesting to say about him. He was a very deserving winner of the Derby and clearly best that day (though I suppose you could make the argument that Normandy Invasion might have cut it close with a more patient ride). He did get an extremely fast pace to close into, however, and any result that occurs over slop has to be taken with a little bit of skepticism. Derby winners that are closers tend to be more vulnerable in the Preakness, but he should get the right set-up again and may just be better than these. It’s not like you can bet him to win, but you obviously can’t toss him either.

Goldencents - Thought he’d find the Derby pace too hot and the distance too far and he did. Slightly less ground to cover here, but still enough company up front. Not using, and hoping he gets play thanks to his connections.

Titletown Five - Loved him in the Derby Trial because he was cutting back to a mile, but he could only manage a fourth-place finish. More ground doesn’t seem like it will be to the speedball's advantage. One thing puzzles me, though: the presence of Julien Leparoux in the saddle. He’s not exactly a speed rider, so maybe they’re planning on taking back? Still can’t include on top, but he’s a tricky read for that reason.

Departing - Guessing he probably gets bet down to second choice as the fresh face with a lot of upside. Could still be any kind, so I’ll use him defensively in some wagers, but he’s got some knocks. He beat absolutely nothing in the Texas Heritage S. and Illinois Derby (granted, he was pretty wide in the latter), and was clearly third-best in the Louisiana Derby. Plus the 97 Beyer he earned at Sam Houston--the only figure that makes him competitive--feels a bit suspect when you look at what the next three runners in the field earned before that race and after. Underlaid, but definitely not out of the question.

Mylute - Please, please, please let this horse be 5-1 come Saturday. No disrespect to Rosie, who’s a fine rider, but the way she gets bet in these big races is crazy. I’m just not seeing it with this horse and think his fifth in the Derby was a bit of a clunk up.

Oxbow - Ran an extremely brave race to be sixth in the Derby--was the best finisher of the pace horses. But can’t really envision him taking a step in the right direction form-wise here. This will be his 10th race since October with no breaks--could probably use a freshening.

Will Take Charge - Was probably the toughest read for me going into the Derby, and ended up featuring him a bit more in bets than my cheat sheet opinions might have suggested (at the expense of having more stuff with Golden Soul, of course). I wanted more to go on with him before the Derby, and didn’t get it when Verrazano dropped anchor right in front of him. He was moving right with the winner when he was stopped, but who knows if he would have sustained that bid or flattened? In danger of being a wise guy horse off that obvious trouble, but hopefully the public finds others to bet. Will be one of my main uses because I still think he’s somewhat unexposed.

Govenor Charlie - Have never been a fan--thought the Sunland Derby was very weak and don’t like that he missed the big one because of a minor setback. Not interested.

Itsmyluckyday - Ok, I’ll bite one more time. Grew increasingly high on him leading up to the Derby, and clearly wasn’t alone as he was bet down to an underlaid 9-1. While a previous win in the slop made me unconcerned with the track condition, it’s pretty clear that Itsmyluckyday hated the surface two weeks ago--he never looked comfortable and was spinning his wheels for much of the race. Think the way to beat Orb will be to get the jump on him, and this one has best running style to do so. 8-1 or better is good enough for me to take the plunge one more time because I still the think the case for him in the Derby is valid if it was merely a matter of the slop last time.

Undercard Thoughts:

Race 4 - Rollicking S. - Wow--a 2-year-old stakes race already? While Wesley Ward is exceptionally good with his debuting juveniles, they’re usually very good bet-againsts after they win first out. According to DRF Formulator, Ward’s just 2-for-20 with a $1.25 in 2-year-old stakes races coming off debut wins over the past five seasons. With two Ward runners as the top two morning-line choices here, there should be plenty of value to be had. I really, really like Debt Ceiling (8-1) at a nice price. I thought his winning Laurel debut was very visually impressive and am glad that he earned a low Beyer Speed Figure--early juvenile figures tend to be irrelevant. I also think he has a huge edge considering he’s been off since Mar. 30. Debut winners often regress second out, and in a field full of them, it can’t hurt to have the horse who has had the most time to recuperate. His worktab since that effort jumps off the page, and his dam was a precocious speedball who became a stakes winner at three. My other anti-Ward use is Knit One Purr Too (15-1)--she also looked good to me visually in her debut and will be ignored.

Race 6 - Chick Lang S. - When I first scanned the entries for this card I thought to myself that Zee Bros would probably be extremely tough cutting back to six furlongs, but now I’m not so sure--Bobcat Jim and Brave Dave are both also insanely fast early and I think this race has meltdown written all over it (feel like I’m starting to sound like a broken record lately, but the pace figures don’t lie). Turnbacks like Res Judicata (10-1) are my go-to plays in spots like these. I think he moved too soon in the Pennsylvania Nursery S. in December and has been flattered by the subsequent exploits of winner Officer Alex and third-place finisher Siete de Oros. He probably needed the race and didn’t completely embarrass himself anyway in the GIII Swale, and seemed to find the mile trip just a bit too long last time when second in the Fit to Fight (note the late lead change). He did cycle back up to his Beyer top at the Big A, and with a pair of bullet works leading up to this, I think he’s poised to turn in a career best. I’ll be more than happy with 8-1 or better, and will be making a sizeable 4 with 7,8,9 exacta box as well.

Race 7 - James W. Murphy S. - I’ve always thought Notacatbutallama’s form was dressed up, so any race where he’s going to be short will offer value (9-5 on the morning line seems a bit low, though). There are two really interesting pedigree plays here in a wide-open affair. Wry Me (20-1) is by Sharp Humor--not a particularly strong turf influence--but his dam was by all-grass Silver Hawk and she dropped a full-sister to Wry Me who was mostly a grass performer. He only has one race on dirt that fits (his very nice Mar. 16 optional claiming win), but don’t be surprised if he pulls off the shocker on the surface switch. The D. Wayne putting a grass horse back on grass angle worked with Skyring at 8.8-1 in this event last year, and “The Coach” has another son of English Channel in Red Wings (10-1) this time. His dirt form isn’t so bad, but he’s always figured to prefer the sod. English Channels’s turf exploits are well documented, and dam Heavenly Ransom (Red Ransom) was five-for-six in her career--all on turf--including a win in the 2006 GIII Wilshire H. over MGISW Ticker Tape.

Race 9 - GIII Gallorette H. - Won’t be letting many (if any) horses knock me out of the first leg of the pick four here (except for maybe perpetual underlay Pianist). I really thought Hard Not to Like (10-1) was going to have a big year after taking the GIII Marshua’s River in her first start for Michael Matz in January, but she’s been a disappointment in her last two. Still, that last winning performance stacks up well with this group, and she figures to sit a perfect trip right behind a fairly moderate pace. Can she rediscover her best form? We’ll see.

Race 10 - GIII Maryland Sprint H. - That was a pretty big race Sage Valley ran when we last saw him in November, but I’m not sure I buy it completely and now he has a lay-off and outside draw to contend with. This is another spread race for me, with Candyman E (6-1), Poseidon’s Warrior (10-1) and Hardened Wildcat (4-1) interesting me the most.

Race 11 - GII Dixie S. - Yet another excellent and competitive race--I didn’t realize how good of a card this was until really digging into it. You’ve got to be pretty forgiving to get to him, but how about Forte Dei Marmi (15-1)? His performance in the Dixie here a year ago was pretty solid (covered his final furlong in a super-fast :10.74) against what might have been a stronger group, and his subsequent races at Woodbine, though at longer distances, might be better than anything else this field has done. His last three have been absolutely abysmal--he was vanned off in the Elkhorn last time--so why is the 7-year-old being shipped down here? Trainer Roger Attfield isn’t one to simply run a horse for the sake of running, and the Hall of Famer boasts a win and two third-place finishes from the five times he’s shipped runners down from Canada to compete on this card over the past five years. With a couple of quick works over the Woodbine Poly since the Keeneland debacle, maybe the real Forte Dei Marmi shows up?

Belmont Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

   Horseplayers, investors and other types of gamblers often place too much emphasis on trends that seem pertinent but are not. When one bets on red in roulette because it has come out the past five spins, that's what we call the gambler's fallacy--each spin, or hand or race featuring disparate players or factors is its own entity, undetermined by and unrelated to past events. In racing, we've seen supposed un-buckable trends broken in recent years because what was perceived as causally determined by real and relevant factors was probably simply variance or randomness. If this notion holds merit, perhaps we should simply ignore the past 11 failed Triple Crown attempts and hand over the GI Belmont S. trophy to I'll Have Another (Flower Alley)--he certainly would be a deserving winner. It shouldn't matter that Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin, or that Smarty Jones couldn't quite go that far or that Big Brown had a shoe issue, didn't like the weather or just failed to show up. But it does, because the Belmont isn't like other races.
   For all the factors that make an impact on every race every day--pace dynamics, traffic, bias, etc.--the Belmont has a set of additional factors almost all its own. The quirky distance that has become completely irrelevant in the modern American sport, the short turnaround from the Preakness and the Derby and the large target that a Triple Crown aspirant has on his back are tiny roadblocks in and of themselves, but when combined they present a major hurdle. In wagering, it all comes down to price, and while no rational person would deny that I'll Have Another has proven up to this point to be the best runner in this field by a large margin, you simply can't do anything but play against him at less than even money. We'd all like to see a deserving Triple Crown winner, though it certainly won't be the sport's saving grace that some hope it might, but to bet on it would be a mistake that would leave some value on the table.

Paynter stretches his legs at Belmont
Horsephotos

   I'm going with Paynter (Awesome Again) on top mainly because he's the one horse in this race who could potentially prove more talented than the favorite. I'll Have Another did beat Paynter by 3 3/4 lengths in the GI Santa Anita Derby when the latter was fourth, but the Zayat colorbearer was coming off just a 5 1/2-furlong debut. He then turned back for Churchill's one-mile GIII Derby Trial S. and dug in well in the slop to be second after contesting a pace that was 10 points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Paynter earned a revised Beyer Speed Figure of 100 for that effort--none of I'll Have Another's other challengers have reached the century mark. The $325,000 KEESEP yearling wasn't done climbing the Beyer scale, however, as he earned a 106 for a 5 3/4-length allowance romp on the Preakness undercard. He faced little adversity and/or resistance in that race, but did everything that was asked of him and comes into this race relatively fresh compared to those who have already competed in one or two Triple Crown events. Seasoning is certainly the main concern for Paynter--it's possible that he doesn't have the foundation to get this demanding distance off just a four-race career that started in February--but perhaps his stout pedigree will help him. The bay is the son of a major route influence in Awesome Again out of a full-sister to Tiznow and Budroyale, both runners who excelled at 10 furlongs.
   I'll also use two back-ups in my attempt to beat I'll Have Another that I fear could very well turn out to be trap horses because of their late-running styles, but who could benefit if Paynter does too much early. Dullahan (Even the Score) hung a bit in the Derby, but he has looked exceptional working and galloping over the track since he's been in New York. He came into the GI Blue Grass S. the same way, and certainly gives the impression that more distance can only be to his advantage. I was extremely high on Street Life (Street Sense) after his graduation and subsequent victory in the Big A's Broad Brush S. He has shown such a lack of early speed in his last two races, however, that he's forfeited any chance of victory. I was ready to sign the divorce papers with Street Life last time after his third in the GII Peter Pan S. from out of the clouds behind a quick pace, but I spoke with trainer Chad Brown last week (click here for TDN story) and he made some interesting and logical points that have convinced me to give Street Life one more chance, albeit not as my main play.
   I've voiced my doubts about Union Rags (Dixie Union) a number of times here and nothing has changed. I'll change my tune when he runs a fast race, though I do think the rider change to John Velazquez should allow the good-looking bay to relocate some of the speed he had as a 2-year-old. I'm not sure that'll help him get the distance, however.

Now for some undercard thoughts...

GI Manhattan H. - Hudson Steele (Johannesburg) couldn't have had an easier trip than the ground-saving pocket journey he enjoyed last time in the GII Dixie S., and his pedigree doesn't scream 10 furlongs. I'll look to beat him with Desert Blanc (GB) (Desert Style {Ire}), who kept superior company in Europe last year (Cirrus des Aigles, Casamento, etc.) at distances such as this one. He was completely left at the break against several of these foes in the 8 1/2-furlong GIII Fort Marcy S. last time, but recovered nicely to be second despite losing plenty of ground throughout. The Chad Brown trainee hasn't shown tons of speed in the past, but I have a feeling that the always pace conscious Ramon Dominguez might look to steal this one. 6-1 would be a gift. I'll also spread with some others, including longshots Al Khali (Medaglia d'Oro), who I've always been a sucker for and who seems best suited to this sort of distance and a turf course; and Omayad (Chi), a Chilean superstar who was clearly prepping last time in a one-mile Hollywood allowance.

GII Woody Stephens S. - Bourbon Courage (Lion Heart) could not have been more impressive in his first two starts, but he disappointed a bit when fourth in the GIII Derby Trial S. That race came after a deluge-induced delay at Churchill, however, and the bay traveled as if he despised the slop. A return to his best makes him very much the horse to beat, especially at a trip that may be better for him than a flat mile. I'm also interested in Il Villano (Pollard's Vision), whose Chick Lang S. score (99 Beyer) is hard to argue with; and Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones), who may show more outside of New Mexico this time off the trainer change. This is definitely a race to go price hunting.

GI Just a Game S. - Winter Memories (El Prado {Ire}) is undoubtedly a very nice horse from a nice family, but she's a perpetual underlay. For whatever reason--maybe her running style that gives the illusion that she's overcome adversity when she's actually had an easy trip or her grey color--she's always overbet. There is absolutely no way she should be half or a third the price of Hungry Island (More Than Ready), who has beaten her before and whose win in the GII Distaff Turf Mile was superior to Winter Memories's GIII Beaugay S. score. I do think that last time was the time to have Hungry Island, however, so I'll also include pace players Wallis (GB) (King's Best) and Tapitsfly (Tapit) as well as Sylvestris (Ire) (Arch), who was extremely visually impressive last time in a local seven-furlong optional claimer.

Race 4 - Turf MSW - Ruthless Alley (Flower Alley) ran huge in his lone turf try when dueling through hot splits before settling for third. He should get clear here, and is a very likely winner relative to his odds. He'll probably be the overlay of the day at 8-1 or better.

Guest Post: Is 2012 the Year of the Triple Crown?

By Kelsey Riley

The countdown is on for I’ll Have Another and his loyal legion of fans. On June 9, the plucky chestnut will attempt to become American racing’s 12^th Triple Crown winner, and the first since Affirmed in 1978. The press is awash with opinions on whether the son of Flower Alley will complete the elusive hat trick, and while I am not here to throw my speculations into the fire, I would like to point out that the Triple Crown has been trending in racing around the world in 2012.

America isn’t the only nation with Triple Crown fever. England caught a raging case of it when Coolmore’s undefeated colt Camelot ran away with the English 2000 Guineas on May 5. The son of the late great Montjeu has subsequently been installed an overwhelming odds-on choice for this Saturday’s Epsom Derby. He will take on eight other colts over Epsom’s uniquely challenging course while jumping up to a mile-and-a-half for the first time. While this seems a daunting task, a great many European racing pundits have unwavering faith in the star colt. Shortly after Camelot won the Guineas, gossip grew that the Aidan O’Brien charge may make an attempt at the Triple Crown. Believe it or not, England has experienced a longer Triple Crown drought than America. The English Triple Crown (the 2000 Guineas, the Epsom Derby, and the St. Leger) has not been won since Nijinsky swept the series in 1970. In fact, the English Triple Crown has gone rather out of fashion. It is a rare occurrence for a horse to attempt it, and many Guineas winners will bypass the Derby itself in favour of shorter contests. Only two horses have doubled up in the Guineas and Derby since 1970: Nashwan in 1988 and Sea the Stars in 2009. In turn, the St. Leger has lost its lustre, and has not been a significant target for top three-year-olds in a number of years. Although Sea the Stars won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2009, his connections opted for a schedule that included the Juddmonte International, the Irish Champion Stakes, and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Coolmore has yet to indicate their plans for Camelot, and while there is doubt over whether he will even get his chance at the Triple Crown, we can dream.

The dream has already come true for Australian racing fans this year, as Pierro became the first horse in eight years (sixth in history) to sweep Australia’s two-year-old Triple Crown of the Golden Slipper, Sires’ Produce, and Champagne Stakes. The undefeated son of Lonhro has serious star quality, and while we’re dreaming, who’s to say he won’t go on next year to win that country’s three-year-old Triple Crown, which consists of the Randwick Guineas, Rosehill Guineas, and AJC Australian Derby? That trio has been won by just four horses, but the most recent winner was Pierro’s paternal grandsire, Octagonal. Pierro has the pedigree to go a route of ground and to improve with age, so it's exciting to think of how good he could be.

Pierro winning the Champagne Stakes

Another nation that has tasted the excitement of the Triple Crown this year is Singapore. Super Easy completed the sweep on May 18 when he won the Singapore Guineas, remaining undefeated in 10 starts including the Three-Year-Old Sprint and the Three-Year-Old Classic. If his courageous win in the Guineas wasn’t enough, the New Zealand-bred’s form was justified when Ato, a horse he has beaten twice, got up to win the Krisflyer International Sprint (G1), the fourth race in the Global Sprint Challenge, last weekend.

Across the map in Japan, three-year-old filly Gentildonna continued her dominance of the female sophomore division when she took the May 20 Japanese Oaks by an easy five lengths. The Sunday Racing colour-bearer was following up on her win in the Japanese 1000 Guineas on April 8, and she looked to be the real deal while stepping from 1600 metres to 2400 metres. The Japanese fillies Triple Crown consists of the Oka Sho (1000 Guineas), Yushun Himba (Oaks), and the Shuka Sho in October. The series was won in 2010 by Apapane. If any horse has the genetics to complete the sweep it is Gentildonna. Her sire Deep Impact took the colts’ version in 2005.

Gentildonna winning the Japanese Oaks.
Courtesy Japan Racing Association

Whether or not it influences anyone’s opinion on I’ll Have Another’s Triple Crown chances, the topic is clearly trending in racing around the world this year. It is interesting to observe how the various Triple Crowns are perceived in different countries, and it is important to note that some of these series have been altered over the years, or have otherwise become insignificant. Regardless, it is exciting to see so many equine stars around the world. If anyone knows of any current Triple Crown stories that I haven’t listed, please share them.       

-- Kelsey Riley is a second year trainee on the Darley Flying Start program. She will join the TDN staff in July.

Preakness and Undercard Thoughts

--Brian DiDonato

GI Preakness S. - I'll be honest, I have nothing particularly insightful to say about the Preakness other than that I think those who are taking an extremely negative view on Bodemeister (Empire Maker) are trying too hard. I doubt anyone could seriously argue against the notion that he was much the best in the Derby, so I guess it comes down to an expected regression. Personally, I'm not one who subscribes to the bounce theory for the most part, and I doubt Bodemeister's a candidate for such a thing. His connections have been around the block enough times to know whether or not a very valuable horse like this with immense potential can handle short rest following a tough effort, and I just can't see them running Bodemeister back without every indication that he's doing very well. After all, they certainly didn't have to run here. They could've waited for the Belmont (a race which I think Bode might be even tougher in) or regrouped for a summer campaign. The presence of Trinniberg was the only thing that got Bodemeister beat in the Derby, so without him or another comparable speed present, I have a hard time envisioning anything but an easy lead for the Derby runner-up.

Bodemeister Galloping at Pimlico
Horsephotos

   If, somehow, the fractions do get too hot, it'll probably be I'll Have Another (Flower Alley) playing the antagonist out of a legitimate fear of letting Bodemeister get away. For that potential outcome, I'll use Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) as my lone off-the-pace back-up in the pick four. He was just hopelessly wide in the Derby, and had every right to stop a bit late after making that eye-catching move. His prior form fits, and while I'm not crazy about the fact that he shipped back to California before coming to Maryland, I'm going to trust veteran Mike Harrington, who seems to be getting fed up with the media's second-guessing. All those rumors about Creative Cause's pre-Derby condition seem to have been pretty inaccurate, after all. For a trifecta or superfecta spicer-upper, I'll toss in Zetterholm (Silver Train), who overcame slow splits to win going away against New York-breds last time. He should be running late and is bred to get the distance on his dam's side.

Air Support   Coady Photography

GII Dixie S. - This is definitely a spread race, but I'll look to zone in mostly on a pair of runners in the 6-1 to 8-1 range. While Casino Host (Dynaformer) will take plenty of play for good reason, it's worth noting that Air Support (Smart Strike) bested him in last year's GII Virginia Derby and should be the better price of the two. He returned from a long break Apr. 7 in a Keeneland allowance that easily could have been a Grade II or III, and endured a wide, no-cover trip before fading to fifth. According to Trakus, he covered 24 feet more than winner Al Khali, which cuts the five-length gap between them at the wire more than in half. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Shug McGaughey boasts absolutely gaudy numbers second off the lay-off in graded turf routes--he's hitting at a 32% clip with a $3.60 ROI over the past five years.
   Trend (Sligo Bay {Ire}) took 10 starts to break his maiden, but he seemed to blossom down at Gulfstream this winter. He bested subsequent GIII Appleton S. winner Corporate Jungle in a Jan. 19 allowance before running second in a salty renewal of the GIII Canadian Turf S. Mar. 3. Showing more speed than usual in the Canadian, Trend dueled the very quick Little Mike into submission--that runner came back to upset the GI Turf Classic S. on Derby day. Third-place finisher Data Link returned to annex the GI Maker's 46 Mile S., benefitting from a troubled trip for Canadian winner Doubles Partner. Trend was second again in the Appleton, but from back off the pace--a jockey switch from the always-patient Julien Leparoux to Alex Solis for this could mean a more aggressive ride, which would prove key.

J W Murphy S. - I don't know what to make of Done Talking (Broken Vow) running in this spot. He never struck me as having a turf action, and it seems like a flat mile is probably a bit too sharp for him. I'm certainly not going to let him knock me out of anything but, believe it or not, I'm not picking him to win. I'd love to lock in 8-1 on Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller) right now. He pressed a very hot early pace last time (13 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter) in the GIII Coolmore Lexington S. while three-wide in no-man's land, but still dug in to be third. Longshot winner All Squared Away and runner-up Summer Front both disappointed in subsequent efforts, but the also-rans, including fellow Murphy entrants Gold Megillah (Purim) and Skyring (English Channel) returned to run well. So did pacesetter Johannesbourbon, who was an unlucky runner-up on the turnback in Tuesday's Tom Ridge S. at Presque Isle. A better trip puts Hammers Terror right there on the wire in this very wide-open affair.

Sophomore Spotlight: Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GI Wood Memorial S. - I know he has become a total wise guy horse, but I just can't get past Street Life (Street Sense)--his last two late runs were incredibly impressive, and he might actually get some real pace this time. Performances like the dark bay's second-out maiden breaker (video) often turn out to be optical illusions. For whatever reason, horses that come from impossibly far back like that usually fail to live up to the hype in subsequent starts (perhaps because oftentimes their moves are accentuated by their slow-moving competition). Two horses have returned from that Feb. 11 contest to break their maidens with new Beyer Speed Figure tops, however, and Street Life came back to turn in an even more impressive effort in his first stakes try.

   Despite earning only a 70 Beyer when donning cap and gown, Street Life was no secret in the Big A's 8 1/2-furlong Broad Brush S. over the inner track Mar. 17--he was backed down to 9-5, and proved it was for good reason. Showing more early interest than he had the time before (perhaps simply because of the pace dynamics), Street Life tracked from mid-pack as Copy My Swagger (Easing Along) carved out absolutely glacial fractions. The frontrunner--if you can call what he was doing early "running"--posted an opening quarter in :25.35, or 21 points below par on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Street Life didn't appear to be traveling particularly smoothly as the field entered the far turn, and it seemed that he would not live up to the hype or the 'TDN Rising Star' tag bestowed upon him the time before. But he started to come alive at the head of the lane under some enthusiastic encouragement from Junior Alvarado and, despite failing to switch leads for most of the stretch run, blew by the still straight-and-strong Copy My Swagger to win it in hand by a half-length (video). This was clearly not a case of a tiring front-runner getting caught. The runner-up came home second-fastest in the field (:31.61), but still a full second slower than Street Life (:30.59). The 85 Beyer Street Life ran fits well enough with this bunch on its own, but certainly does not accurately reflect his capabilities considering the slow pace he overcame.

Street Life            Coglianese Photo

   While this field as a whole does not possess particularly fast early pace figures, a number of runners have a tendency to travel on or near the lead. This is key to set up Street Life's late kick, and also to soften up formidable favorite Gemologist (Tiznow). Trainer Mike Hushion recently said that the undefeated, stretching-out The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam) would be sent hard early, so he should ensure solid enough splits if Casual Trick (Bernardini), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect), Teeth of the Dog (Bluegrass Cat) and/or Gemologist show the same sort of early interest that they have in recent starts. More real estate can only help Street Life's cause (more because of his pedigree than his running style), and he still has ample room to mature mentally. I'm expecting another big step forward, and one that could very well propel Street Life towards the top of the list of Derby contenders.

GI Santa Anita Derby - I was kind of hoping Bodemeister (Empire Maker) would return here for a rematch with Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway), as I think that runner's set to explode, but I guess we'll have to wait a week to see him run. The main knock on Creative Cause here might be that trainer Mike Harrington elects to take off the blinkers for the first time in the favorite's career despite the fact that he ran the fastest race of his life last out with the hood on. I guess this is a better time to experiment than in a month from now, but it could leave Creative Cause slightly vulnerable at a short number. I'm going to key off of two horses who should be decent prices here in Pick 3s or 4s, and who would benefit from somewhat opposite pace scenarios. It is not readily apparent to me how the pace of this race will play out, so I'll use an overlay for each possibility.

Holy Candy         Benoit Photo

   First up is Holy Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}). I must admit that I didn't really see what all the hype surrounding this horse was about before he broke his maiden last time. He had faced solid competition that had gone on to bigger and better once outside the maiden ranks, but horses who consistently run second just don't interest me. Backed down to 1-2 last time going a mile here Mar. 23, the powerful grey finally put it all together. In a race strikingly similar to Street Life's Broad Brush described above, Holy Candy tracked from fourth of five behind a pacesetter who got his opening quarter in :24.69. It's surprising that a horse at any level could go that slow early over Santa Anita's lightning-quick strip, but it actually happened--good for a 48 Moss Pace Figure, 28 points below par. The lack of any sort of set-up didn't seem to bother Holy Candy, though, as he blew by the decent Bob Baffert-trained frontrunner Eaton Hall (El Corredor) for a 3 1/2-length success (video). Holy Candy got his final quarter in a head-turning :23.05--even at Santa Anita, that's fast. Holy Candy's 84 Beyer doesn't do his last performance justice, and while I think he might be better off in next week's GI Blue Grass S. (trainer John Sadler says he won't make a decision until Saturday morning), he has the raw talent to demand inclusion in this admittedly steep jump in class.
   Longview Drive (Pulpit), a full-brother to the accomplished Pyro, could upset this bunch at a solid price, possibly on the front-end. The $175,000 KEESEP yearling has fallen through the cracks a bit despite completing the trifecta in one of the stronger Derby preps we've seen all season, the GIII Sham S. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after setting an above average pace, and was only beaten a length by the injured but promising Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat) and the very accomplished Secret Circle (Eddington). That effort garnered the chestnut favoritism in what ultimately proved the weaker of two divisions of the GIII Southwest S., but a nightmare trip relegated Longview Drive to sixth. Off a half-step slow, he was unable to make the lead, and was forced to rate from a tight spot along the inside, which he clearly was not happy about. Longview Drive was then taken to the far outside for clear sailing, covering far more ground than any other rival before ultimately flattening out. He'll get get original pilot Russell Baze back in the saddle, and should give a much better account of himself this time at double digit odds.

Done Talking         Horsephotos

GIII Illinois Derby - Considering how much I've touted him, I've got no choice but to go back to Done Talking (Broken Vow) here. He's not my top choice for the Kentucky Derby anymore, but I do think that all the positives I've pointed out about him in past posts still ring true if you simply toss his complete non-effort in the GIII Gotham S. last time. It was his first start back off a lay-off that was extended due to illness and he did get bumped a bit going into the first turn. The homebred has since returned with a pair of upbeat drills, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Laurel Mar. 24, so there's reason to believe he's doing well. It's also positive to see his connections opt to take a shot and ship out to Chicago from Maryland. The 13 post isn't ideal, but it's not as if Done Talking will be gunned early for position. A lack of pace would prove a bigger obstacle for the bay, but large fields tend to guarantee solid enough splits and Morgan's Guerilla (Ghostzapper) possesses the type of speed that will probably be hard to harness. He posted very fast splits when breaking his maiden on the Gotham undercard Mar. 3, and should be winging it early with others in tow. There's no reason why Done Talking can't bounce back and be the one to seize command late at a price that could be upwards of 20-1.

Guest Post: Let's Take a Peek at Some Derby Players

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

April has finally arrived and that means Kentucky Derby 138 is less than five weeks away. As usual, there are plenty of opinions regarding which of the prospective cast of 3-year-olds have the best, or least, chance to claim the roses. Past experiences have taught me the prudent approach works best when attempting to assess the relative merits of these Churchill-bound youngsters. Sorting out contenders from pretenders prior to the final set of nine-furlong preps can sometimes be tougher than a guy trying to fold a freshly laundered contour sheet! With that in mind, we will simply have a look at what I believe are some of the strengths/weaknesses of a handful of the more seasoned players.

Dullahan (Even the Score) Trainer: Dale Romans - This has not been the smoothest of winters in South Florida for last year’s Breeders' Futurity winner. Dullahan battled a persistent cough upon arriving at Gulfstream which delayed his 2012 debut. When he did finally show up in the entries, he ran decently enough when second to Howe Great in the nine-furlong GIII Palm Beach S. Dullahan had been suspiciously absent from the work tab since that March 11 race, finally recording a five-furlong work on Apr. 1. 
   Now comes word that he had popped a splint (bone) shortly after the Palm Beach. Romans was quoted as saying he was confident Dullahan remains on schedule for a start in the Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland on Apr. 14. As the Blue Grass is contested on Keeneland’s Polytrack surface, the son of Even the Score will head to Churchill with only one meaningful dirt line with which to judge his ability on that surface. That effort, a closing 4th to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was very similar to his previous run in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. In a tell-tale trial Feb. 25 at Gulfstream, Dullahan worked five furlongs in :59 1/5--fastest of 22 that morning. I for one am going to assume that this colt is every bit as comfortable on dirt as he is on synthetic or turf. Though he missed some time early on this winter, that might well be offset by his solid juvenile foundation which saw him run in four 1 1/16 races between mid-August and Breeders’ Cup day Nov. 5. The popped splint, however, comes at a very inopportune time and can’t be dismissed as a non-issue as this colt goes forward.

Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Steve Asmussen - If Dullahan’s quad-route juvenile foundation was solid, this colt’s all-turf sextet of routes is unshakable! That foundation has no doubt helped his sophomore cause. DNB returned to the races with a narrow victory in Golden Gate’s GIII El Camino Real Derby, defeating fellow stretch-runner Lucky Chappy, who was unplaced this past Saturday in Dubai’s G2 U.A.E. Derby.
   Lured by the lucrative graded money up for grabs in the GIII Sunland Derby, Asmussen decided this was the right time to give the son of Scat Daddy his dirt mid-term exam. DNB passed the test, registering a 100 Beyer in his first dirt start since he was out-sprinted last July at Churchill. He got his final furlong in just over :12 1/5…that’s running!
   The Derby prep landscape is always changing as dates, purses and sometimes even stake upgrades are constantly changed and repositioned. Trainers nowadays must be conscious of graded stakes earnings. Most years, it will take better than $200,000 in graded earnings to safely earn a spot in the Derby starting gate. Prior to 2010, the ungraded Sunland Derby was nowhere on any serious Derby contender’s radar. Now with the Grade III designation and a fat $800,000 purse, handicappers can no longer simply ignore those results. 

Union Rags (Dixie Union) Trainer: Michael Matz - Widely recognized as the Derby favorite heading into this past Saturday’s GI Florida Derby, the massive colt’s stock might just drop a notch with his length-and-a-neck defeat. Personally, I don’t believe his loss to Take Charge Indy and Reveron warrants it. He was, after all, hemmed in with nowhere to run at that crucial point from the five-eighths pole to well beyond the three-eighths pole. Though he took a while to get rolling once clear, Union Rags did run on well, and in fact ran his final sixteenth in a very good :12 2/5. On paper, the Florida Derby was very much a race lacking in speed. The race shape was never going to help a big, long-striding, middle-moving horse like Union Rags, especially with trainer Michael Matz’s main objective to further the colt’s education towards relaxing during the opening half-mile.
   It is worth noting that the two lengths Union Rags made up on the winner in the stretch were the only lengths gained by any runner in the entire field--further proof as to how speed-friendly this pace was. His trip-hampered Beyer number of 93 translates to more like a 96 or 97 when you consider the lack of running room he had and that number would be very much in line with what he’s been running. At the end of the day, the son of Dixie Union strongly suggests that the 10 furlongs of the Derby will not be an issue. There are good losses and there are bad losses…this was a good loss. Importantly, the colt looked outstanding from a physical standpoint and appeared to travel during the running like a very sound horse. For those folks lucky enough to get out to the Downs during training hours Derby week, you are going to see a number of Derby hopefuls who appear as though they’ve already been through a tough grind. Don’t look for Union Rags to be one of them.    

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley) Trainer: Doug O’Neill - Despite a convincing tour de force in the GII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita, the chestnut is still flying well below the radar of most folks. Perhaps it’s the fact that he hasn’t competed since that Feb. 4 race where he was dismissed at a generous 43-1. It’s not often that a 43-1 runner looks like the winner past every pole, but that was certainly the case as the son of Flower Alley used his high cruising speed to stalk pacesetter Isn’t He Clever. Upon receiving his cue from little-known jockey Mario Gutierrez, I’ll Have Another promptly put daylight on his field, and just like that, the race was over. Asked to go a distance of ground for the first time off a five-month layoff is a tall order for any horse, yet this colt showed some lovely, tractable speed, and then finished up like a horse with considerable quality. The fractions and final time of the race stacked up very favorably with a pair of races for older runners that same day--the GII Strub S. and a very salty first-level allowance won by the proven stakes performer Setsuko.  
   I don’t know why connections have passed on the month of March with I'll Have Another. He looks like a big, rugged colt to me and judging from his work tab since the Lewis--a mile in 1:42.60, 7 furlongs (twice) in 1:26 and a splendid 6 furlongs in 1:10, he certainly isn’t being babied. He doesn’t have to win the Santa Anita Derby to be for real, but he does have to come back and run something very similar, perhaps even a bit better than his Lewis effort to convince me all is well in O’Neilland.

Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway) Trainer: Mike Harrington - As a rule, juveniles that break their maidens at five furlongs first time out with a 98 Beyer don’t generally find their way into the Kentucky Derby. Yet Creative Cause, arguably the West Coast’s top 3-year-old at this stage has done exactly that. The colt is equally accomplished on dirt and synthetic and why wouldn’t he be? He is a a son of Giant’s Causeway, afterall. As a juvenile, Creative Cause made a seamless transition from sprinting to routing. He ended the season with a very useful third-place finish in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Though beaten only a length and a head, he was almost the forgotten horse amid the “Hansen or Union Rags” flap.
   In the most meaningful stretch run to date--as far as the Derby preps are concerned--Creative Cause outdueled the lightly raced and very brave Bodemeister to take home the winner’s share in the GII San Felipe S. (102 Beyer). Coming up with an accurate number can prove a difficult task when a given day fails to present any other races of comparable class/distance/surface. This was the case on Mar. 10 at Santa Anita, but the lads at Beyer central generally get things right, so we will trust they got this one right until proven otherwise. It certainly appeared to these eyes that those were a couple of quality colts coming down the Santa Anita stretch.
   Negatives, negatives…let’s see. He’s no spring chicken, but trainer Mike Harrington has had very limited experience handling Derby horses, though he certainly couldn’t be faulted for any chess pieces he’s moved to this point in the match.

Hansen (Tapit) Trainer: Michael Maker - This colt looked like a horse of some quality early on, running off the screen in two impressive Turfway efforts. When he wired the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field at Churchill, we then knew he could do it on dirt as well. Hansen has always been very much a free-running sort, so it was no surprise that he was extremely keen in the GIII Holy Bull S. off a nearly three-month absence. In an attempt to relax the speedy gray, blinkers were removed for the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, where he sat off the hip of the leader before taking up the running at the three-eighths pole and cruising to a three-length win (95 Beyer). Fair enough.
   Having handled the Aqueduct surface so well in the Gotham, connections immediately announced that Hansen’s next start would be in the GI Wood Memorial over the same track. Not too long after, however, those same connections said Hansen had been rerouted to the Blue Grass because owner/breeder Kendall Hansen had always wanted to win an important race at that famed racetrack. Reading between the lines--as one must always do approaching the Derby--trainer Mike Maker was quoted as saying Hansen had a tough race in the Gotham and lost quite a bit of weight. The Blue Grass option gives the colt an extra week to put some meat back on his bones, and he need only ship a short distance to Churchill either from Keeneland or Maker’s base at the Churchill Downs Training Center.  Though I very much respect Hansen’s high-class speed, I’m beginning to get a bit of a negative vibe with news of him losing a chunk of weight in only his second start off a freshening. I also have serious doubts that he will stay nine or 10 furlongs and I question the strength of his pedigree towards that end. And finally, I wonder if he’ll be able to remain tractable if drawn towards the inside half of a thundering 20-runner Derby field.

Gemologist (Tiznow) Trainer: Todd Pletcher - With an unblemished four-for-four record to this point, Gemologist remains the only potential Derby starter with a chance to enter the starting gate unbeaten. Gemologist, of course, must first get through his next scheduled engagement, the Apr.7 Wood Memorial, where he must finish no worse than second in order to secure enough graded earnings to ensure himself a spot in the field. A very good, if not spectacular juvenile, Gemologist made it quite obvious he had wintered very well indeed at Palm Meadows in south Florida when unveiled in a one-mile, Gulfstream allowance. The son of Tiznow controlled things from the start and settled the issue well before the field turned into the stretch. His eight furlongs, covered in 1:35.4, translated to a 95 Beyer number, a full 10 points higher than his best last year, an 85 when winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill.
   There are always holes to be poked in all these 3-year-olds, so we will address what I feel like could well pose a problem on Derby day. Gemologist has never had to contest any lively splits and has never been farther than 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at any call. On Derby day this can often prove a bad combination because many years the race unfolds at a much faster pace than most of these horses have previously seen.
   The position of the starting gate for Gulfstream’s one-mile races is literally a few feet from the starting pole. Because there is such a short “run-up” to the pole, the timer starts almost as soon as the gates open. This is the reason for the very slow opening quarters at that distance. Even by those standards, Gemologist got away with a very easy :24.4 opening quarter. It’s very difficult to make any ground up on a good horse when he’s given a free ride during the first quarter mile. Certainly Gemologist is a very good horse, and an even better horse under those circumstances. Horses as a rule don’t generally react very favorably to extreme positional or fractional changes in their racing diet, especially when they’re being asked to cover a distance greater than they have previously been asked to run. That is to say if a colt has been on the lead through fractions resembling :23.4, :47.4 in his last few preps and suddenly is faced with :22.4, :46.3 on Derby day, chances are that this scenario is not going to play out favorably. He may be ill-equipped to set the pace himself with those much faster splits. Moreover, he may well also resent the alternative--taking back six or seven lengths off the lead if that’s the route the rider chooses to take. These are issues that play out year after year in the Kentucky Derby. And more so in the prep races where many trainers/owners now plot out the easiest possible spots with enticingly short fields that often ensure a far slower pace than what the participants must encounter at Churchill.

Sophomore Spotlight: Florida and Louisiana Derbies

GI FLORIDA DERBY - Honestly, I'm not sure how great of a betting race this is, but it might be an important event in how it sets up betting for the Derby. It's very likely that one of the three obvious horses--Union Rags (Dixie Union), El Padrino (Pulpit) or Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy)--will win. I'll probably use all three in the Pick 4 and simply hope to survive, but certainly wouldn't mind if the Union Rags gets it done as the favorite, even if it might deflate any potential exotic pay-offs.
   Unless Union Rags shows something he hasn't so far, I'm very eager to bet against him in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to run faster than a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, but he's the consensus Derby favorite because his wins have been visually impressive and he had an admittedly brutal trip in the Breeders' Cup. He's all the way down to 3-1 on the morning line for the Derby Future Wager Pool 3 despite the fact that there have been more than 30 performances in 2012 by 3-year-olds that earned higher figures than the 95 Union Rags received for the GII Fountain of Youth S. last time. It's also not a great sign that the bay has yet to receive a figure faster than what he earned for his very solid 7 1/4-length success in the GII Saratoga Special last August. Horses' speed figures should improve significantly from age two to three unless they've reached their ceiling. Add to that a pedigree that doesn't guarantee success at Classic distances (his lone full-sibling was a decidedly better sprinter), and I'm happy to lay a much-too-short price on Union Rags come May 5--especially if the outcome of the Florida Derby deflates his odds further.
   A win play against Union Rags might be warranted here, but I'd need something like three times the price of the favorite to bet El Padrino and six or seven times the price on Take Charge Indy. I don't expect the necessary price on El Padrino due to the Pletcher factor (Discreet Dancer was actually odds-on over Union Rags in the FOY). While Take Charge Indy moved too soon and probably ran a better race than El Padrino when they faced off in an allowance here Jan. 29, he has been handled with a lack of confidence this Triple Crown season that makes me hesitant to back him without the right reward for the added risk.

Union Rags                                  A Coglianese

GII LOUISIANA DERBY - There's a good chance that Cigar Street (Street Sense) is in a different class than the rest of these horses, but there's an even better chance that he'll be forced to work hard to prove it. Enough confirmed speed is signed on here, even with the defection of Arm Force (Tiznow) (my original pick), to test the recent maiden romper. Reformed claimer Comisky's Humor (Sharp Humor) exits sprints in which he set the pace, so there's no doubt he'll be sent. Hero of Order (Sharp Humor) set fairly moderate splits in the GII Risen Star with Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen) in tow (that slow pace is the reason I'm against Mark Valeski), but he was part of an extremely hot pace in the GIII Lecomte S., so I'd expect Hero of Order to add plenty more fuel to the fire. I certainly won't be shocked if Cigar Street ends up cruising here from either on or off the pace, but he was tugging pretty hard when he romped last time and he's clearly not the type to take at a short price.   
   Since nobody else from the GII Risen Star looks particularly interesting based on trip analysis, I'll look to key off of two out-of-town closers. Despite Dale Romans's past success with horses switching from turf to dirt, I wasn't expecting much from Finnegans Wake (Powerscourt {GB}) in the Gotham, but the very late runner overcame a slow-to-average pace to complete the trifecta in that event at 25-1. He needs to improve significantly from a speed figure standpoint to contend in this spot, but he's still lightly raced and more ground should be to his liking. His pedigree screams very long distances on the turf, but since he took to the dirt reasonably well last time, maybe distance considerations will outweigh surface ones in this case. It's also worth noting that two horses he has been competitive with on the turf--News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) and Golden Ticket (Speightstown)--have run much faster on the dirt recently. The former, another example of Romans's turf-to-dirt prowess, was second in the Fountain of Youth with an 88 Beyer, compared to the 79 he earned when a length in front of Finnegans Wake in a Gulfstream optional claimer Feb. 5. Golden Ticket almost won the GII Tampa Bay Derby with an 87 versus the 73 he ran when second beaten two lengths by Finnegans Wake in a Gulfstream maiden Jan. 1. Don't be surprised if Finnegans Wake runs by them all at the end of that long Fair Grounds stretch at a nice price.
   I'll also use Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit), who has been running reasonably well out in California, including a close runner-up effort in the GI CashCall Futurity late last season. His last two tries came over the Santa Anita dirt, which probably hasn't helped his cause, and the California horses appear to be a bit stronger in 2012 than in recent years.


Cigar Street                                 Lou Hodges