Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

AQU 8 - GIII Bay Shore S. - I picked Financial Mogul in the GIII Gotham S. as part of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby showdown, and mentioned (click here) after his even fourth-place finish that I thought he might appreciate a cut-back in distance. He gets it here, and should offer plenty of value. The dark bay romped by 5 1/2 lengths at Saratoga last time he tried seven panels, and he shows some quick works since the Gotham. I’ll also use Favorite Tale, who has crushed weaker competition at Parx in all three of his previous outings and could get a bit disrespected here; and another turn-back in The Admiral--his sprint debut and seven-furlong maiden breaker two back were both solid. I’m against favorite Kobe’s Back--he’s just way too obvious and inconsistent. Play: Win on #3 Financial Mogul (8-1), also using #6 Favorite Tale and #7 The Admiral in exotics.

AQU 11 - GI Carter H. - I love Clearly Now here. He was plagued by tough trips last season, including when finishing a very good second over track and trip 12 months ago in the Bay Shore. He showed what he could do with a better trip when he took Belmont’s GIII Bold Ruler H. with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure two back, but nearly went down after clipping heels on the turn in the GI Cigar Mile before settling for a solid fifth all things considered. Seven furlongs is probably Clearly Now’s ideal distance, and I look for him to sit just off the speed before pouncing. I’ll also hope to be alive in the pick four to last year’s Carter runner-up Sahara Sky as well as GI Malibu runner-up Central Banker. Play: (Large) Win on #2 Clearly Now (5-1), also using #1 Central Banker and #6 Sahara Sky in exotics.

SA 4 - MSW, 3yo, 6 1/2fT - I have a feeling that first-time starter Designated can run a bit. The Pam and Marty Wygod homebred is out of a mare who had some speed on the track before dropping talented sprinter Idiot Proof, a debut winner, Grade I winner on synth, Grade III winner on dirt and second in both the 2007 GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint and 2008 G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He also finished second in a Del Mar turf sprint stakes try. Another half-brother also won his debut and did most of his work in synthetic sprints. By a top turf (and overall) sire in Smart Strike, Designated shows some strong works up at Golden Gate for Jedd Josephson. Josephson has excellent numbers in two relevant categories. He’s two-for-four when shipping down to Santa Anita, including a 13-1 stakes upset down the hill here in 2011 and third with a 17-1 shot in an optional claimer a couple of weeks ago. Josephson also has very strong debut numbers--he’s 17% with a $3.75 ROI from a large sample size over the past five seasons (stats courtesy DRF Formulator). Included in those debut winners is last year’s champion juvenile Shared Belief, who Josephson unveiled for the Wygods up at Golden Gate in October before he was sold privately. Play: Win on #6 Designated (8-1), exacta box with #5 Footstepsinbronze.

SA 7 - GIII Providencia S. - Favorites Diversy Harbor and Nashoba’s Gold are both talented fillies with tons of upside, but it’s hard not to take a shot against them here considering the much different pace scenario they’ll face this time from when they ran one-two in the China Doll S. last out. The pace was very hotly contested in that one-mile affair, but there’s only one confirmed front-runner signed on here: One More. One More graduated against $75,000 maiden claimers two back over a mile of this turf course, and set a relatively unpressured pace last time to annex a course-and-distance (1 1/8 miles) allowance Mar. 13. She certainly didn’t have the toughest of trips that day, but I liked how she finished and think she’s a little better than the speed figure gap between her and the top two choices would suggest. Now, besides a win bet on One More, playing this race could get a little tricky. I’ll definitely use One More and the chalks in horizontal wagers, but I’ll also try to get some bombs into the trifecta. Longshots Full Ransom and Savings Account could find themselves closer to a slow pace this time and at least one of them could hit the board. So I’ll play 10 w/ 4,5,6,8 w/ 4,5,6,8, and 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 4,5,6,8. I’ll also play a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 5,6 superfecta (not sure there’s much point in playing a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 TRI). Play: Win on #10 One More (6-1) and the exotics outlined above.

KEE 9 - GI Ashland S. - I’m not expecting the 15-1 she is on the morning line, but Rosalind has a big shot in here. The Ken McPeek trainee was a late-charging second in the GI Darley Alcibiades over this track and trip in October, and put in a similar run to be third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies the following month. Fourth with a wide journey in the GI Hollywood Starlet, she had some excuses when third on seasonal debut behind last Saturday’s GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner In Tune at Gulfstream Feb. 27. Steadied pretty significantly early, Rosalind was caught behind a slow pace over a track that favored speed for much of the meet. She’ll get tons of pace this time, returns to a synthetic strip, and sports a local bullet work. I expect her to have a say at decent odds. Play: Win on #8 Rosalind (15-1).

OP 9 - GIII Fantasy S. - I like two horses here and I’m going to try to get both of them on the board. I have to give Kiss Moon one more chance to run back to her excellent allowance score here Jan. 11—she set a very hot pace that day, but kept right on going to win by 9 1/2 lengths. A puzzling seventh as the favorite in the Martha Washington S. after that, Kiss Moon showed a little more life to be fourth behind a few of these rivals in the roughly run GIII Honeybee S. I’m not sure why Kiss Moon hasn’t been closer to the lead in her last two, but I expect she’ll be hard-sent this time—she adds blinkers and sports two quick works in the interim. Mufajaah returns on short rest since taking her second straight Mar. 23. She just has the look of a really talented horse—she won at will last out and there’s no reason she can’t handle the step up in class. I’m curious to see how hard they bet her. Play: Win on #5 Kiss Moon (12-1), exacta box with #4 Mufajaah. Trifectas 4,5 w/ ALL w/ 4,5.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Sophomore Spotlight: Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GI Wood Memorial S. - I know he has become a total wise guy horse, but I just can't get past Street Life (Street Sense)--his last two late runs were incredibly impressive, and he might actually get some real pace this time. Performances like the dark bay's second-out maiden breaker (video) often turn out to be optical illusions. For whatever reason, horses that come from impossibly far back like that usually fail to live up to the hype in subsequent starts (perhaps because oftentimes their moves are accentuated by their slow-moving competition). Two horses have returned from that Feb. 11 contest to break their maidens with new Beyer Speed Figure tops, however, and Street Life came back to turn in an even more impressive effort in his first stakes try.

   Despite earning only a 70 Beyer when donning cap and gown, Street Life was no secret in the Big A's 8 1/2-furlong Broad Brush S. over the inner track Mar. 17--he was backed down to 9-5, and proved it was for good reason. Showing more early interest than he had the time before (perhaps simply because of the pace dynamics), Street Life tracked from mid-pack as Copy My Swagger (Easing Along) carved out absolutely glacial fractions. The frontrunner--if you can call what he was doing early "running"--posted an opening quarter in :25.35, or 21 points below par on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Street Life didn't appear to be traveling particularly smoothly as the field entered the far turn, and it seemed that he would not live up to the hype or the 'TDN Rising Star' tag bestowed upon him the time before. But he started to come alive at the head of the lane under some enthusiastic encouragement from Junior Alvarado and, despite failing to switch leads for most of the stretch run, blew by the still straight-and-strong Copy My Swagger to win it in hand by a half-length (video). This was clearly not a case of a tiring front-runner getting caught. The runner-up came home second-fastest in the field (:31.61), but still a full second slower than Street Life (:30.59). The 85 Beyer Street Life ran fits well enough with this bunch on its own, but certainly does not accurately reflect his capabilities considering the slow pace he overcame.

Street Life            Coglianese Photo

   While this field as a whole does not possess particularly fast early pace figures, a number of runners have a tendency to travel on or near the lead. This is key to set up Street Life's late kick, and also to soften up formidable favorite Gemologist (Tiznow). Trainer Mike Hushion recently said that the undefeated, stretching-out The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam) would be sent hard early, so he should ensure solid enough splits if Casual Trick (Bernardini), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect), Teeth of the Dog (Bluegrass Cat) and/or Gemologist show the same sort of early interest that they have in recent starts. More real estate can only help Street Life's cause (more because of his pedigree than his running style), and he still has ample room to mature mentally. I'm expecting another big step forward, and one that could very well propel Street Life towards the top of the list of Derby contenders.

GI Santa Anita Derby - I was kind of hoping Bodemeister (Empire Maker) would return here for a rematch with Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway), as I think that runner's set to explode, but I guess we'll have to wait a week to see him run. The main knock on Creative Cause here might be that trainer Mike Harrington elects to take off the blinkers for the first time in the favorite's career despite the fact that he ran the fastest race of his life last out with the hood on. I guess this is a better time to experiment than in a month from now, but it could leave Creative Cause slightly vulnerable at a short number. I'm going to key off of two horses who should be decent prices here in Pick 3s or 4s, and who would benefit from somewhat opposite pace scenarios. It is not readily apparent to me how the pace of this race will play out, so I'll use an overlay for each possibility.

Holy Candy         Benoit Photo

   First up is Holy Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}). I must admit that I didn't really see what all the hype surrounding this horse was about before he broke his maiden last time. He had faced solid competition that had gone on to bigger and better once outside the maiden ranks, but horses who consistently run second just don't interest me. Backed down to 1-2 last time going a mile here Mar. 23, the powerful grey finally put it all together. In a race strikingly similar to Street Life's Broad Brush described above, Holy Candy tracked from fourth of five behind a pacesetter who got his opening quarter in :24.69. It's surprising that a horse at any level could go that slow early over Santa Anita's lightning-quick strip, but it actually happened--good for a 48 Moss Pace Figure, 28 points below par. The lack of any sort of set-up didn't seem to bother Holy Candy, though, as he blew by the decent Bob Baffert-trained frontrunner Eaton Hall (El Corredor) for a 3 1/2-length success (video). Holy Candy got his final quarter in a head-turning :23.05--even at Santa Anita, that's fast. Holy Candy's 84 Beyer doesn't do his last performance justice, and while I think he might be better off in next week's GI Blue Grass S. (trainer John Sadler says he won't make a decision until Saturday morning), he has the raw talent to demand inclusion in this admittedly steep jump in class.
   Longview Drive (Pulpit), a full-brother to the accomplished Pyro, could upset this bunch at a solid price, possibly on the front-end. The $175,000 KEESEP yearling has fallen through the cracks a bit despite completing the trifecta in one of the stronger Derby preps we've seen all season, the GIII Sham S. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after setting an above average pace, and was only beaten a length by the injured but promising Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat) and the very accomplished Secret Circle (Eddington). That effort garnered the chestnut favoritism in what ultimately proved the weaker of two divisions of the GIII Southwest S., but a nightmare trip relegated Longview Drive to sixth. Off a half-step slow, he was unable to make the lead, and was forced to rate from a tight spot along the inside, which he clearly was not happy about. Longview Drive was then taken to the far outside for clear sailing, covering far more ground than any other rival before ultimately flattening out. He'll get get original pilot Russell Baze back in the saddle, and should give a much better account of himself this time at double digit odds.

Done Talking         Horsephotos

GIII Illinois Derby - Considering how much I've touted him, I've got no choice but to go back to Done Talking (Broken Vow) here. He's not my top choice for the Kentucky Derby anymore, but I do think that all the positives I've pointed out about him in past posts still ring true if you simply toss his complete non-effort in the GIII Gotham S. last time. It was his first start back off a lay-off that was extended due to illness and he did get bumped a bit going into the first turn. The homebred has since returned with a pair of upbeat drills, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Laurel Mar. 24, so there's reason to believe he's doing well. It's also positive to see his connections opt to take a shot and ship out to Chicago from Maryland. The 13 post isn't ideal, but it's not as if Done Talking will be gunned early for position. A lack of pace would prove a bigger obstacle for the bay, but large fields tend to guarantee solid enough splits and Morgan's Guerilla (Ghostzapper) possesses the type of speed that will probably be hard to harness. He posted very fast splits when breaking his maiden on the Gotham undercard Mar. 3, and should be winging it early with others in tow. There's no reason why Done Talking can't bounce back and be the one to seize command late at a price that could be upwards of 20-1.

Sophomore Spotlight: Gotham Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

This race clearly goes through Hansen (Tapit), but you have to think that with a large field and a few horses who have shown speed in the past that he won’t be allowed to waltz along on the front end on a track that should be wet. King and Crusader (Lion Heart) may hold the key to the race, then, because he is a speedy sprinter/miler who will undoubtedly pester the defending champ as long as he lines up and breaks reasonably well. While Hansen loses the blinkers for this, he’s not all of a sudden going to become Silky Sullivan--he’ll be on or pressing the pace and he probably won’t be alone.

I’m hoping for a hot pace, as the Gotham marks the return of my current Derby horse--Done Talking (Broken Vow). I already laid out his merits a while back here, and while I’ve seen some impressive performances in the interim that have caught my eye, I’m still sticking with Done Talking as my number one for the time being.

That he’s been off a while due to an illness is less than optimal, but he’s made up for lost time with a string of long-distance works at Laurel and trainer Hamilton Smith appears to be pleased with how his charge is doing. The conditioner has had decent enough recent success with horses coming off similar breaks over the past year, posting a $2.61 ROI with three wins from 19 tries.

The most flattering development for Done Talking has been subsequent performances turned in by El Padrino (Pulpit), who finished a head in front of Done Talking in the Remsen with a significantly better trip (closer to a very slow pace). This year, El Padrino has run a 100 Beyer (up from a 79 in the Remsen) to take a tough Gulfstream allowance Jan. 29, and then he scored at 4-5 in last weekend’s GII Risen Star S. with a 98 Beyer.

El Padrino isn’t the only runner to flatter the form of the Remsen, despite the top two finishers having not returned yet. Fifth-place finisher Our Entourage (Street Cry {Ire}) took a turfy optional claimer in Florida with an 85 Beyer Feb. 25; seventh-place finisher Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy) was a solid second behind Alpha (Bernardini) in the Jan. 7 Count Fleet S. here with an 81 Beyer; and eighth-place finisher Speightscity (Speightstown) came back to take an allowance before, most recently, earning an 85 Beyer for a runner-up effort in the GIII Withers S. Feb. 4. Between the subsequent Beyers earned by Remsen also-rans, his trip in that race and the time off to develop, it’s very likely that Done Talking is capable of running much faster on the Beyer scale than he did last year.

My biggest concern, despite the pace not materializing, could be the distance (I’m not worried about a wet track--Done Talking has a 412 Tomlinson rating and plenty of runners in his family have done well in the slop). He has won twice going shorter than this, but the Remsen was nine furlongs and he seems like the type who will always do better with more ground.

At worst, I’m expecting a late-running third or fourth that sets him up for better going forward. At best, I’m expecting Done Talking to blow by the field late at double digit odds. Since a victory for Done Talking will depend on Hansen being softened up, in addition to a win bet I’ll also play some exactas with Done Talking and other closers--namely Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect) (who may or may not be a closer), Suns Out Guns Out (Empire Maker) and Stealcase (Lawyer Ron).

Done Talking works at Laurel last Saturday
Horsephotos

Reflections on the Big A

--by Christina Bossinakis

   Still fairly fresh off a whirlwind trip to Australia which featured sales, racing and farm visits to blow your mind, the natural progression from that, of course, would call for a trip to one of America’s jewels in racing, Aqueduct Racetrack, situated in Ozone Park, New York. Ok, that’s probably a little exaggeration (read as a HUGE exaggeration). In any case, I was excited at the prospect of heading to Queens to get my first look at the Big A, since its latest facelift and addition of the Casino. Featured on Saturday’s card was the GIII Toboggan H. and the GIII Withers S. The latter was of particular interest to me, because it is one of the early tests for newly turned 3-year-olds, some of whom might continue on the Triple Crown trail over the next few months.
   Upon my arrival, I was greeted by a well patronized parking lot as well as a couple of guys, one of whom uttered to the other as they walked by, “ 'These' women sure like to gamble.” This statement entertained me endlessly, with my laughter carrying me right up to the front door. It was very apparent to me that these hardcore New Yorkers thought I was going to the casino and not the racetrack. If they only knew.
   I took a trip over to some of the racetrack/media offices in the basement of the facility, including a run over to the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen’s Association office to check in on a former TDNer, and current NYTHA media stalwart, Andy Belfiore. We headed over to the paddock to take a look at the Tobbogan field, and quite frankly, the winner (at least on appearances) was Mike Repole’s Calibrachoa. He is one handsome son-of-a-gun (still talking about Calibrachoa; no offense Mike). The big man himself, trainer Todd Pletcher, was in the house to oversee the 5-year-old’s facile victory, and for the record, he was back at Gulfstream to saddle a pair of inspiring 3-year-old winners Sunday afternoon; Ender Knievel and Wait Til Dawn. I'd swear the man is super human.

Calibrachoa
Adam Coglianese Photo

   The equine beauty pageant carried through to the Withers itself, and Alpha, by Bernardini, definitely made an impact on those in attendence. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, who also calls Southern Florida his winter home, was onhand to saddle the lovely and ultra-refined colt, who on first glance, is not very reminiscent of his sire. Bernardini was without a doubt a powerfully built horse, while this colt is so much lighter in bone and body. However, the one thing that both father and son possess in spades is class and quality. Not only did that quality come through with Alpha’s impressive 3 1/4 length victory, but it really gave the impression that this Godolphin runner should get better with time and distance. A couple of side notes: Speightscity (by Speightstown), who was runner-up at 44-1, also caught my eye in the paddock prior to the race. Trained by Gary Contessa, he might be one that will come in under the radar and jump up for a big win later in the season. Definitely keep an eye on him. In my opinion, however, the individual offering the most intrigue was third-place finisher Tiger Walk, a son of Tale of the Cat. The Sagamore team was out in force Saturday, including the trouser-clad bloodstock advisor Bob Feld (minus the shorts and baseball cap--I almost didn’t recognize him!). The colt, who has a bit of a reputation for being keen and pretty headstrong, became a little hot in the saddling enclosure, but he appeared to relax a bit by the time he set foot on the track. Well back and eager in the early going of the race, he rallied late to get third. His connections were very pleased with the effort, and this colt could be poised for bigger and better things if Ignacio Correas can get him to relax and rate.

   Soon after the day’s feature, the focus, at least on my part, shifted to California racing. Much to my surprise, and chagrin, I was informed that there wasn’t a single TV showing horse racing in the casino (really???). In an effort to find something similar to Gulfstream’s upstairs bars (you can be sure to find me up there late in the card whenever I’m at the Hallandale oval), Andy and I (accompanied by NYTHA’s long-time office manager Dionne {aka Dee} Johnson), found our way to the Big A’s version, tucked away on the second floor of the clubhouse. Let me clear up any misunderstandings up front, this bar is nothing like any of those at Gulfstream. I must admit, I usually enjoy and appreciate any place that offers some local ‘flavor’, however, Aqueduct’s version is very outdated (it supposedly used to be a dining room) and the atmosphere is reminiscent of a cafeteria rather than a lounge or sports bar. Ripping up the carpeting, changing the lighting and adding some appropriate seating would be a cheap and easy fix for an area that is in all likelihood has not reached anywhere near its maximum earning potential. Over drinks, Dee and I realized we share a birthday (if you happen to stop by or call the NYTHA office on the 9th be sure to give Dee a shout out!), and after polishing off our sole cocktail (it was a slow day), the bar issued its final call and was fully shuttered by 6p.m. With some really good racing still going on at other tracks across the country, this was just another example of how racing often fails to adopt a more global view of its product and clientele. Because the bottom line is, when promoting other venues and racing events, individual tracks help support their own fundamental products--horse racing and wagering.

   For anybody visiting Aqueduct for the first time since its latest renovation, I would also suggest a brief run through the new casino. The new facility, which was bigger than I had originally imagined, had a pretty healthy-sized crowd (roughly 2/3 of the slots were occupied) and featured a very impressive central bar (you see a pattern here?). The ambiance around the enormous circular bar, quite honestly, screams nightclub rather than casino. Four tele-theater screens headed the bar area, creating plenty of bling to an already flashy setup. Now, if they can only get some horse racing playing on one of those jumbo TVs, we’d be all set..

   My trip to Ozone Park concluded with dinner at the well-known ltalian restaurant, Don Pepe’s, situated right around the corner from Aqueduct. For those of you who have never been there, be warned, the wait is a killer. We arrived there a little after six and ended up having to wait an hour for a table, although it appeared from my perspective that having some connections would really expedite the process. The local Italian community was out in full force Saturday night, and it seemed like we might be the only non-paysans in the entire establishment until we saw Hall of Fame jockey Jorge Velasquez walk in. The place is family style, so the bigger the group, the better. And don’t go looking for menus--it’s just a menu board at the far end of the dining room, so bring your reading glasses! Other things to note: hats are not permitted (Can somebody please notify John Fort and Kelly Breen?) and forget your credit cards; cash is king here. Despite the less than warm service (these guys don’t seem to have the time for patience or niceties), the food was worth it and very reasonably priced at that. Parting words of advice: just be decisive and assertive but never rude, and you’ll be Ok.

   At the end of the day, it wasn’t the day of racing in summertime Australia I enjoyed less than a month ago, but it is an integral part of the framework that makes up our local racing industry, so I genuinely appreciated it nonetheless.
   Next stop on the line, sunny Florida for the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park. Hope to see some of you there!