Oaks Day Late Pick Four Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GI Kentucky Oaks - The whole world knows that this race goes through Untapable. Her two efforts

this season tower over the competition, and she’ll probably win. But being drawn out in the 13 post makes her a little vulnerable, and she’s not absolutely guaranteed to get the distance—plus she does have a target on her back. I’m not crazy enough to toss her, and many of my bets will use her on top, but I do think there’s some value to be had here—either on the win end if the favorite falters, or at least underneath.
   The horse I’m most interested in is Thank You Marylou, who’s an extremely generous 30-1 on the morning line. The Mike Maker trainee is by Birdstone—whose progeny almost universally prefer a conventional main track, and who are better the longer they go—out of a Menifee mare who was much better on dirt and a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Yet this will be the first time Thank You Marylou routes on dirt, and the first time she goes beyond 8 1/2 panels. A late-on-the-scene third (promoted to second via DQ) in the GII Saratoga Special in August, the chestnut resurfaced to take Gulfstream’s seven-furlong Any Limit S. by 2 1/2 lengths over a decent field Mar. 9, good for a 95 Beyer Speed Figure (that makes her the third-fastest horse in the race, believe it or not). Perhaps she should’ve finished better than seven lengths behind the top two when third in Keeneland’s GI Ashland S. in her first route attempt last time, but she was much closer to that insane early pace than those foes were and she just never figured to prefer the synthetic. She should run a new Beyer top under these conditions, and that puts her right with pretty much anything besides Untapable’s best.
   I’ll also include Unbridled Forever, the daughter of 2006 Oaks upsetter Lemons Forever who should also appreciate this trip and figures to move up off her third behind Untapable in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks; Got Lucky, who continues to let me down, but has had some trip excuses and is best at nine furlongs; and a tiny bit of GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner-via-DQ Ria Antonia, who ran ok first-time Baffert last time in the GI Santa Anita Oaks and could take a step forward.
   The Play: Win on #5 Thank You Marylou (30-1). Exacta box key w/ #13 Untapable (4-5) (pressed), #9 Unbridled Forever (12-1), #12 Got Lucky (20-1) and #2 Ria Antonia (10-1). Trifecta 13 w/ 2,5,9,12 w/ 2,5,9,12. In the pick four, 5,13 as A’s; 9 as B; 2,12 as C’s.

Thank You Marylou                                       Kenny Martin

GII Alysheba S. - This looks like a very good spot to oppose odds-on favorite Will Take Charge. He danced lots of dances last year, and has already run three times this year—in Florida, California and Arkansas. He did not look like his best self when barely winning the GII Oaklawn H. last time and nearly being DQ’d, and the 103 Beyer he earned was his lowest in eight starts. This 1 1/16-mile distance is also much shorter than optimal for him. Normandy Invasion is the obvious alternative and figures to take some beating—his runner-up finish behind Palace Malice in the GII New Orleans H. while attempting to close into a slow pace takes this a large portion of the time. I’ll also use the other obvious horses: Golden Ticket, whose close second to Palice Malice in the GII Gulfstream Park H. looks particularly good in hindsight and whose last race in that embarrassingly run Carter can be ignored; and Mylute, who still has some upside. I’m also going to use a little Coin Broker because he’s still unexposed and trainer Dale Romans is always sneaky.
   The Play: Exacta box #5 Normandy Invasion (3-1), #7 Golden Ticket (6-1) and #3 Mylute (10-1), w/ 5,7 box pressed. Smaller exacta key box #4 Coin Broker w/ 3,5,7. In the pick four, 3,5,7 as A’s, 4 as a C.

Edgewood S. - This morning line seems a bit off to me, but if it were to hold, Little Journey would be a very big overlay at 10-1. Trainer Chad Brown is just SO deadly with these European fillies, and they don’t always get bet—Sweet Acclaim was a fast-closing second at 8-1 in last month’s GIII Appalachian S. According to the Keeneland clocker report, Little Journey out-worked Pleuven—a GSP 3-year-old colt who would crush these—over the turf there Apr. 17. Plus she was third in September behind Flamboyant, who took her own Stateside debut in Santa Anita’s La Puente S. two weeks ago. The other two I’ll use are Istanford and Resistivity, who were part of that complete meltdown in the Ashland I alluded to earlier. Both are much better than that and I don’t think they’ll be ridden quite so aggressively this time, though I wasn’t expecting them to be the second and third choices on the morning line.
   The Play: Win bet on #5 Little Journey (10-1) at 5-1+, also using #7 Istanford (7-2) and #10 Resistivity (3-1) in the pick four.

Eight Belles S. - What a surprise, a 3-year-old race at seven furlongs comes up super interesting. . . There are tons of ways to go in here—the obvious players like She’s a Tiger, Fiftyshadesofgold and Our Amazing Rose have to be respected, but there’s at least one longshot who interests me a lot. I discussed Mufajaah here a bit before the Fantasy, where she never quite seemed to recover after a rough start, checking in seventh in what was a bit of a merry-go-round race. She still has every right to prove extremely talented, though, and I love the cut back to seven panels for her and the addition of Lasix. Lots of Tapits seem to do well with this move, and her dam Carolyn’s Cat (Forestry) was a speedy MGSW sprinter. Plus there are enough fillies in here who want to be forwardly placed that I think her late kick could prove very dangerous.
   The Play: Win bet on #8 Mufajaah (10-1). In the pick four, using her, #7 Fiftyshadesofgold (3-1) and #10 She’s a Tiger (5-2) as A’s; #4 Our Amazing Rose (3-1) and #5 Jojo Warrior (9-2) as B’s; #1 Whomping Willow (12-1) and #9 Milam (12-1) as C’s.

Kentucky Derby 139: Winners & Winners

by Alan Carasso

Now that the dust has settled on Kentucky Derby 139, one that was satisfying on many different levels, some thoughts:

Claude McGaughey III: Shug’s work with Orb has been a study in equine management from the word go. Possessed of some of the fire which lives in his female family, Orb was something of a problem child in his first three starts, and when he finally broke his maiden fourth time out (Revolutionary third), it was plainly one step at a time as the colt shipped down to Payson Park for the winter. After clearing his first allowance condition, Shug went on record saying he’d have preferred a two-other-than, but those are hard to come by and, with really nowhere else to go, put Orb in the GII Fountain of Youth. He won that, defeating Violence, but even then, McGaughey felt the jury was still out. When Orb followed up in the GI Florida Derby, only then did the conditioner realize he was on to something big. Shug has always been classy, even before I visited his barn at Keeneland in 1995 when he had Inside Information for the GI Spinster (she beat Mariah’s Storm that year before airing in the Distaff). He doesn’t know it, but he watched Coronado’s Quest win the ‘98 Haskell from the TDN box at Monmouth, and took the win (narrowly over Belmont winner Victory Gallop) in his stride. Not one to wear his emotions on his sleeve, it was touching to see just how overcome he was with emotion following the win, and most of the racing world is thrilled that he’s finally scaled these heights. Hats off, too, to the Phipps and Janney families, two institutions in the Bluegrass.

(C) Reed Palmer

Joel Rosario: He’s 28 and already a rock star, perhaps the closest thing this country has seen to a ‘Boy Wonder’ since Steve Cauthen. It’s never easy to shift tack from California to the East Coast, but Rosario’s transition has been seamless. He attracted the attention of most of the top barns in Florida over the winter, and earned the mount on Animal Kingdom. A Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby in the span of five weeks (and about 3/4 of a million dollars in earnings) is a tremendous feat, not to mention his record 38 winners at Keeneland and his double-digit wins in the first few days at Churchill. All of the Dominican Republic was watching and cheering home their native son. It was front-page news the next day.

Rosie Napravnik: Quietly, ‘Girl Wonder’ had a weekend of her own to remember. She won Friday's GII Alysheba S. on Take Charge Indy and piloted Delaunay to a powerhouse score in the GII Churchill Downs Saturday. Both horses earned 109 Beyers--can you say Breeders’ Cup? Though her big Derby hope Shanghai Bobby went to the sidelines, Rosie picked up the mount on Mylute for the big race and rode him a treat, running on for fifth while not missing second by too much.

Maggi Moss: The Iowa-based owner had a memorable Friday-Saturday Daily Double with So Many Ways in the GIII Eight Belles S. and the aforementioned performance of Delaunay in the Churchill Downs S. Since being claimed for $40,000 last May 12, Delaunay is seven for eight and has earned just shy of $567,000 for Moss alone. Astonishing stuff.

Wise Dan: The Point of Entry scratch (logical as it was) was a bummer, but what can you say about Dan? Shows up every time, runs on anything, he’s simply amazing.

Charles Fipke: Never one to shy away from taking a swing, was represented in the Derby by the slow-starting Java’s War and Golden Soul, the 11th-hour addition many assumed was a toss. Well, you know what happens when you assume.

Todd Pletcher: OK, most of his five Derby runners didn’t acquit themselves particularly well (track conditions probably had some say in this), but he did manage to saddle home the first, third and fourth in Friday’s GI Kentucky Oaks, no small feat. And Revolutionary hardly embarrassed himself in the Derby, finishing a good third. Thinking is Pletcher will be back.

Dr. Scholls: For the uptick in the sales of rubber galoshes to horsemen for the walk over (OK, this is made up).

My TDN cohorts DiDonato and Sherack: DiDonato is nothing short of amazing with his finds. Put me onto 11-1 winner of the Turf Sprint Saturday and I got Chamberlain Bridge to run second (mercifully!) for a $250 score. He also managed to use Golden Soul second for the Derby exacta (uh, I didn’t have that one). Much in the same way I locked onto Street Sense off his maiden, Sherack has been an Orb guy the whole way and put his money where his mouth was on him and Delaunay. Kudos, boys. Can I borrow five bucks?

Racing at large: Despite the off track and the inclement weather, the Derby and other races were truly run affairs with few excuses, other than the underfoot conditions, and absent tragedy (no disrespect here to Dr. Bramlage). TV viewership was up, and, for at least one day, the sun shone down on our Old Kentucky Home, figuratively if not literally.

Kentucky Oaks Day Analysis

by Brian DiDonato

GI Kentucky Oaks - Obviously, any discussion of this race has to start with Dreaming of Julia,
whose 21 3/4-length romp in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time came from pretty much nowhere--she’s always been decent, but that was otherworldly. I’m going to go out on a limb and say she that if she runs back to that race, she’ll probably have a say. I’m not expecting her to, however. That performance was so anomalous that I’m inclined to cross it out completely, which makes her look more like a fringe contender who might have too much early speed in a race that looks poised for a meltdown. Also note that Pletcher trainees who run huge at Gulfstream often flop elsewhere in their subsequent starts. She’ll be nowhere on my tickets at what has to be a much lower price than her 3-1 morning line (Right? If she wins and pays $8, we should probably all feel a little stupid)...

   Speaking of a meltdown, Silsita, Midnight Lucky, Beholder and Rose to Gold are all tosses for me because they’re too quick early and/or seem to have distance concerns.

    Notice that I didn’t mention Close Hatches, who has been on the lead in her last two--she’s my pick. The theory with her is that she only set the pace in those spots because she was more talented than her competition. She didn’t really look like she was freewheeling out there in either race--she was rating very kindly, but just happened to have nobody to run with. The Juddmonte colorbearer is likely to find herself much farther back this time, especially with the 10 post. She was well out of it in her smashing seven-panel debut (which immediately reminded me of Royal Delta’s unveiling), and I see no reason to expect Joel Rosario to send for the lead or to think she’ll drag her way up there. You could certainly find fault with how easy her last two trips have been, and she hasn’t run particularly fast yet, but the Bill Mott trainee has made an excellent impression since arriving in Kentucky and still appears to have tons of upside. She’s clearly the value.

    In the pick four and other exotics, I’ll also use the obvious Unlimited Budget and Pure Fun, who has been a disappointment in 2013, but may wake back up returning to Churchill. I’ll also toss in a tiny bit of Seaneen Girl underneath. She has a win over the track and could clunk up for third. 
 

Close Hatches                                       David Alcosser      

 

Undercard Thoughts:
 

Race 4 - Alw/OC, 7f - If the field stays intact, there should be enough pace to set up Devious d’Oro. She flew home to score on debut going six furlongs at Oaklawn Feb. 24, and had a tough trip when stretched out Apr. 13. She practically blew the first turn while traveling in last and had a bit of traffic trouble in the lane before running on for third. I’m thinking she might show a better kick cutting back despite a pretty stout pedigree, and is unlikely to take much action.

Race 5 - Msw, 9fT - Strike Charmer at anywhere near her 10-1 morning line would be an absolute gift. The daughter of turf stakes winner Cat Charmer (Storm Cat) (a half-sister herself to Derby third-place finisher Impeachment) didn’t show much early in her Keeneland debut, but came flying in the lane while weaving through traffic to be third. She covered her final quarter in :22.35, more than a full second faster than winner Praia, who’s entered in the Edgewood.

Race 6 - GII La Troienne S. - I don’t have a particularly strong opinion here, but I could see playing a pick three or something using only Authenticity and More Chocolate. Their last-out speed figures are pretty comparable to those earned by On Fire Baby and Believe You Can. The latter might go off at odds-on considering she took the Oaks here a year ago and because perpetually overbet Rosie Napravnik is aboard.

Race 7 - Edgewood S. - What a tough race--would like to have as much coverage as possible. The horse that interests me the most is Adriani, who has had two very tough trips since joining the David Fawkes barn. She chased a quick pace four wide two back at Gulfstream, only to fall a neck short to subsequent GIII Appalachian S. winner Unbelievable Dream. According to Trakus data, Adriani covered 14 feet (about 1.6 lengths) more than the winner that day, and Unbelievable Dream covered a ton more ground than almost everybody else. Third that day was Emotional Kitten, who came back to nip Adriani by a nose last time going this distance at Keeneland. Again, though, Adriani had a major excuse--she pressed crazy opening splits of :22.68 and :47.16. There’s other pace in here, and Joe Rocco Jr. will have to work out a trip from the 11 hole, but Adriani is a whole lot better than she looks at first glance and has to be double-digit odds.

Race 8 - GIII Eight Belles - Yet another brutally tough race with plenty of longshot potential... Morning line favorite Calistoga can obviously win, but she’ll have to contend with the 14 hole and plenty of other pace. There are a few turnbacks who have to be included, most notably So Many Ways, winner of the GI Spinaway S. at this trip last year. For a potential longshot win bet candidate, I like Gold Medal Dancer. She put in a very impressive stretch run at Oaklawn last time to increase her career record to two-for-two. The stablemate and paternal sibling to the aforementioned Devious d’Oro figures to be flying late.

Race 9 - GII Alysheba S. - Maybe he’s hopeless, but I’m taking a small flyer on Right to Vote, whose close defeat at 37-1 first out at Saratoga in 2011 still haunts me. I’m keying in on one race of his as maybe a clue that he can surprise. He was 47-1 in the GII Peter Pan S. last May, but stayed on for second while setting very hot splits behind Mark Valeski, who recently finished second in the GII New Orleans S. and would have been a contender here. Right to Vote earned a 94 Beyer for that effort--considering his trip that day, the potential for improvement from then ,stretching back out and the fact that he gets first-time Lasix on the owner/trainer change here, he may be capable of running a competitive figure at a gigantic price.

Race 10 - GII American Turf S. - Obviously War Dancer would offer value at 6-1 off his crazy run last time, but there’s no way he goes off at that price. I’ll be betting Joelito, who was very sharp in his maiden-breaking turf debut last out. He should get first run on some of the shorter-priced runners in here, and it’s interesting that red-hot Joel Rosario takes the call when he rode 4-1 morning line Admiral Kitten last time and 8-1 shot Fire Guard in his last three. Rosario last piloted Joelito when he split Den’s Legacy and Ive Struck a Nerve sprinting at Del Mar in August.

Race 12 - Msw, 7f - Likely favorite Double Gelato exits a very weak maiden race and trainer Rusty Arnold is two-for-33 (6%) with a $0.57 ROI with his second-time-starting maidens in dirt sprints over the past five years (courtesy DRF Formulator), so there’s value to be had elsewhere. Assuming I’m not broke at this point, I’ll try Greek Life. She showed late interest in her six-furlong unveiling at Fair Grounds Mar. 30, and conditioner Steve Margolis’ numbers in the same category mentioned above for Arnold are much better--he hits at a 28% clip with a $2.16 ROI (Margolis also has Delilahjane here making her second start as well). Greek Life is the first foal out of a stakes-winning mare who was two-for-two at seven panels, including once over this strip.

Good luck Friday, and check back here for Saturday undercard thoughts or in Friday's newsletter for Derby analysis from myself and the "Road to the Derby Showdown" champ himself, Steve Sherack.

 

Sophomore Spotlight: In-Depth Kentucky Oaks Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

This year's GI Kentucky Oaks came up very evenly matched, and looks to be a great betting race. See below for my take on each runner.

1 - On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken) - It's hard to argue with what she has done so far in her career... Had pretty easy trips in her two local wins last year, but has proven more than just dressed up this term... She covered a ton of ground when third against the boys in the Smarty Jones S., and overcame another wide trip to annex the GIII Honeybee S. last time with a field's-best last out Beyer of 99... Sire Smoke Glacken doesn't inspire great confidence at nine furlongs, but her dam and siblings were all routers, including GII Fantasy S. winner and 2007 Oaks show horse High Heels (E Dubai)... Not concerned about the lack of a recent prep considering the morning reports on her; she's the race's most likely winner.

2 - Grace Hall (Empire Maker) - Not crazy about her figure progression from two to three--ran an 85 Beyer when winning last year's GI Spinaway S., but has only run a 90 and 89 in her two races in 2012... Distance is in her favor, but it's really hard to take favorite's odds on her considering how much lower her Beyers are than some other runners... Playing against.

3 - Summer Applause (Harlan's Holiday) - One of the toughest horses in the race to figure out... Her GIII Rachel Alexandra win was solid--came back fast enough (96) and was not the product of an easy trip... But how did she not get by Believe You Can in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks after those super-fast fractions (first quarter was 21 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale)? The track wasn't speed favoring that day or anything... Will use defensively on some tickets because she fits the profile and will be a big price, but hard to feature her more off of that last race.

4 - Eden's Moon (Malibu Moon) - Figures to be one of many pace casualties in this very speed-laden group... Got an easy lead in the GI Las Virgenes and had no obvious excuses last time when third behind Cal-bred Willa B Awesome in the GI Santa Anita Oaks... The Oaks winner came back to win last Saturday at Hollywood, but barely and with a 73 Beyer against state-breds... Not interested.

5 - Hard Not to Like (Hard Spun) - Has the same last-out figure as Grace Hall, but will be upwards of 10 times the price... The GI Ashland was a merry-go-round type race over a speed-favoring surface, but she managed to run well to be a close second... Showed signs of being a good one last year on the turf, but obviously dirt is the question... Dam Like A Gem (Tactical Cat) won sprinting on the dirt and was stakes-placed at 8 1/2 furlongs on the conventional stuff. Based at Woodbine when they switched over to Polytrack, she was a SW at 10 furlongs on that surface as well as turf... Hard Not to Like has had enough works over the dirt that you'd think they would know how she handles it, so inclined to think it won't be an issue... Trainer Gail Cox boasts an 18% win rate and $2.72 ROI second off the bench, according to DRF Formulator... Main longshot play.

6 - Broadway's Alibi (Vindication) - GII Forward Gal romp seemed slop aided, and she enjoyed a very easy lead in the GIII Comely S. last time... Seems destined to be caught up in the fast pace, and not crazy about how her connections were noncommittal about running here... Playing against.

7 - Sacristy (Pulpit) - Has never gone beyond seven furlongs and feels like she's in here because Peachtree's two big guns aren't... Can't use.

8 - Jemima's Pearl (Distorted Humor) - Thought her U.S. debut at Santa Anita for Simon Callaghan was solid visually despite being aided by a fast pace... You could make the argument that Oaklawn was speed favoring when she was third in the GII Fantasy, and she came home fastest... Worked in company with Bodemeister--while she obviously wasn't going to outwork him, can't be the worst sign in the world that Baffert paired them up... Very interesting mid-price type.

9 - Believe You Can (Proud Citizen) - She ran very valiantly to hold on in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks last time, but she's going to have to deal with another fast pace here with more distance and better competition... Seems she's best when allowed to show speed, but that will prove her undoing.

10 - And Why Not (Street Cry {Ire}) - She really doesn't seem to fit with these on paper--her one even semi-fast race came due to an extra fast pace in the GII Pocahantas... She does have an exceptional pedigree for this, though, and it's interesting that Matz opts to take a shot... Bullet work Apr. 28 says she's doing well... Her morning line price of 15-1 is an underlay, but she should drift from there... Will use her underneath and possibly on top as a back-up simply because she'll be running late if she's on her game.

11 - Karlovy Vary (Dynaformer) - Upset the GI Ashland thanks to a bias, and doesn't seem likely to take to the dirt... Not much to like.

12 - Colonial Empress (Empire Maker) - Can't see her breaking her maiden in this spot...

13 - Amie's Dini (Bandini) - Pace won't do her any favors and On Fire Baby proved much better than her two back in the Honeybee... Was only second in the Fantasy because of how it was run... Passing.

14 - Yara (Put It Back) - Pulled off quite the shocker in the GII Davona Dale when besting Grace Hall at 64-1, but came back to earth in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks... That one good race is definitely the exception rather than the rule, so hard to expect anything competitive from her, especially going this far.

AE - Oaks Lily (Badge of Silver) - Incredibly slow. . . Fair odds might be in the 1000s-1.

Verdict: My main uses in the pick 4 and Oaks/Derby Double will be On Fire Baby, Hard Not to Like and Jemima's Pearl... Will use a little Summer Applause and a tiny bit of And Why Not somewhere... Also playing Hard Not to Like at 15-1+, boxing my top three in exactas and playing some sort of trifecta key with my top five.

Guest Post: First, there is the matter of these nine furlongs on Friday

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

   The Louisville airport over the next ten days will accommodate a multitude of reporters from all over the world, each looking for that titanic Derby scoop. It's a safe bet that better than 90% of them could not name a single runner in the Grade I fixture contested just 24 hours earlier, the Kentucky Oaks. This blog will show the ladies no such disrespect! Though the filly division at this stage lacks any superstars, it certainly isn't lacking in the speed department. Even with the recent defection of the speedy Princess Arabella (strained suspensory ligament) and whispers out of the Pletcher camp that the supersonic Broadway's Alibi show may play next in New York (GI Acorn S.) rather than Kentucky, this should still be a race loaded with speed. Most years, the Oaks tends to unravel at a slightly less mad pace than the Derby. This year will not be one of those. In fact, one has to thumb through quite a few past performances before stumbling across a filly that is willing to pass runners in the final three furlongs at a two-turn distance. Let's have a look.

On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken--Ornate) Trainer: Gary Hartlage
   A quick glance at this one's pedigree might not inspire confidence going nine furlongs as she is by sprint sire Smoke Glacken. However, if you peel back a few layers on her dam's side, you'll find there is plenty of route ability there. Her dam, Ornate, won four times at a route distance. Ornate's first foal, High Heels(E Dubai), won the 1 1/16-mile Fantasy S., taking the same Arkansas-Kentucky route that her younger sister will follow.
   Reading between the lines here, I'm guessing she showed evidence of bleeding when a very respectable third against males in the Smarty Jones S., as she ran back first time Lasix in her next start. That next start was a very good winning effort in the GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn. The genuine older male Alternation won the GIII Razorback H. that day in almost identical time with amazingly similar fractions, further flattering her effort.
   She is also unbeaten in her two starts at the Downs and has shown the ability on a couple of occasions to lay a few lengths off the leaders and still produce her best effort. Her connections got such a positive result from the filly off her eight-week gap between the Smarty Jones and the Honeybee that they have decided to trace those steps with another eight-week gap into the Oaks. That timing is not ideal from a fitness standpoint, however, and though obviously talented, she may be a vulnerable favorite.

Believe You Can (Proud Citizen-El Fasto) Trainer: Larry Jones
   The Oaks just wouldn't seem like the Oaks without a Larry Jones runner in the field. This year's version is another talented daughter of Proud Citizen. Team Jones (Larry and owner Brereton) in 2008 won this very race with another daughter of the Gov's own stallion. Her name was Proud Spell.
   Both of Believe You Can's two-turn successes in New Orleans came when she was allowed to control things on the front end. The baloney in this Fair Grounds sandwich was a failed experiment when attempting to rate in the GIII Rachel Alexandra S. Make no mistake; this filly needs the lead in order to win next Friday and she is being trained like a filly that will be let loose out of the gate. Her most recent breeze was a bullet five furlongs in :59.3 on Apr. 23 at Churchill. She finished unplaced in her lone start here when chasing a very fast pace in the GII Pocahontas S. as a juvenile. It's quite possible a similar scenario could play out on Oaks day.

Eden's Moon (Malibu Moon-Eden's Causeway) Trainer: Bob Baffert
   Here is yet another (I warned you) speedball, this one from the west coast. The daughter of Malibu Moon was all but proclaimed champion 3-year-old filly in many circles after an impressive front-running win in Santa Anita's GI Las Virgenes S. Then in the GI Santa Anita Oaks, arch rival Reneesgotzip was conceded a slender one-length lead in the early stages. Eden's Moon never could get by her, despite a blistering :23 flat third quarter and a stalking Willa B Awesome was the direct beneficiary of the all-out pace war. I honestly don't know which of the two speedsters would prove to be the faster, should they go flat to the boards from the break, but at Churchill it would be a moot point as both would get swallowed in the final furlong or so.

In Lingerie (Empire Maker-Cat Chat) Trainer: Todd Pletcher
   Purchased privately off an impressive Turfway debut with the Oaks in mind, this filly was test driven in a rather salty first-level allowance race at Gulfstream. In Lingerie found out pretty quickly that this Florida trip was no vacation courtesy of another Oaks candidate in Zo Impressive.
Team Todd promptly shipped her back to the site of her initial success and she responded with a facile six-length win in the GIII Bourbonette Oaks where she faced a field decidedly softer than the one she'll face on Oaks Friday.
   All we know for certain with this filly at this point is she enjoys the synthetic surface and that she has run her best races on the lead. As Pletcher likes to do with his springtime prospects, she will stay at her Palm Meadows base until Oaks/Derby week so as not to lose any crucial training days to the unpredictable weather that is Kentucky in late April.

Mamma Kimbo (Discreet Cat-Bag Lady Jane) Trainer: Bob Baffert
   Wasn't I just talking about a West Coast speedster from the Baffert barn? Well, here's another. If I had to point my finger at the speed of the speed, I would have to choose this daughter of Discreet Cat. She debuted brilliantly going six furlongs in 1:07.4 at Santa Anita (101 Beyer). Baffert was asking quite a bit of her to then fly to Hot Springs and try and stretch out her speed in Oaklawn's 8 1/2-furlong GII Fantasy S.
   The talented filly did just that, reporting home 1 1/2 lengths to the good of the more experienced Ami's Dini. Mamma Kimbo regressed slightly on the Beyer scale with the increased distance, but still posted a very respectable number of 94. A raw talent here, but things may just be coming up a bit quick for her as far as timing goes.

And Why Not (Street Cry-Alchemist) Trainer: Michael Matz
   If not for her connections, I wouldn't be giving this one a second look in here. Matz/Groves are not in the habit of throwing one into the deep end unless she was giving them the right signals. Yes, I know she was beaten 16 1/2 lengths by Grace Hall in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, but this filly has a running style that just might land her in the first couple. I'm not even going to begin to guess what went wrong at Gulfstream.
   Her lone Churchill effort was very good, and though her deep-closing style was helped by an extremely fast pace that day in the Pocahontas, she could once again be aided by a fast early pace in the Oaks. If Matz takes a pass on the race, so be it, but if this conservative team decides it's a go, she will be on my exacta tickets at a fat price!

Grace Hall (Empire Maker-Season's Greetings) Trainer: Anthony Dutrow
   She appears at or near the top of almost every Oaks list I've seen, yet has never Beyered better than the 90 she ran when beaten a neck by longshot Yara in the GII Davona Dale S. So what exactly does she bring to the table? In two words: consistency and pedigree.
   'Grace' has been first or second in all six of her starts over four different racetracks. She has paired up almost identical races to start 2012 and has the look of a filly that is ready to move forward now. Her sire Empire Maker has hinted strongly in recent months that he may well be on his way to becoming an important sire of Classic runners.
   The Tony Dutrow trainee also appears to want every bit of nine furlongs and, as she did in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she appears capable of laying off the speed. For me personally, there is still that nagging fact that she has yet to run as fast as many others in here.

Summer Applause (Harlan's Holiday-Summer Exhibition) Trainer: Bret Calhoun
   This daughter of Harlan's Holiday comes in with arguably the strongest overall resume of any in this year's Oaks. Though she's been beaten in two of her last three starts, they have been good beats...at least in my book.
   Since transferring from the barn of Canadian trainer Josie Carroll, this filly has really blossomed for Calhoun. Because of the terribly short fields in all three of the Kentucky Oaks preps at Fair Grounds this year, Summer Applause was forced to stay closer to the leaders than she probably would prefer. Still, she finished up gallantly in all three and that will serve her well at Churchill.
   With an expected furious pace on Oaks day, jockey Robbie Albarado will have the luxury of letting this filly relax for a half mile before asking her for any run. As Bret Calhoun maintains a string on the Churchill backstretch, Summer Applause will be racing out of her own stall and that never hurts.
Her two most recent works--four furlongs in :47.60 on Apr. 13 and five furlongs in 59.60 on Apr. 20--only reinforce how well she is currently doing.

   I expect a full field of 14 runners in the Kentucky Oaks with at least three or four of them contributing to a sub :47.00 opening half mile. As my lovely wife Jo will be joining me at this year's Oaks, I will be expected to pick at least five winners on the day, including the Oaks exacta, or hear about it on the drive back to Lexington. Have you ever noticed how much shorter that hour seems when you're discussing your winnings?

Sophomore Spotlight: Holy Bull

--Brian DiDonato

Breeders’ Cup winners have historically been significant underlays in their subsequent return races, and Hansen (Tapit) should be no exception in Gulfstream's GIII Holy Bull S. Sunday. While his Eclipse-earning form in 2011 was solid, it’s likely that he will regress off the bench--especially with serious early pressure. Recent maiden breaker Silver Max (Badge of Silver) has proven unable to rate, and if My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect) runs as quick early as he did last time in the GIII Delta Jackpot (95 Moss Pace Figure - 23 points above par), he’ll add more fuel to the fire. My Adonis has run slower early in past efforts, but he enters this race with three straight bullet drills, including a :34 4/5 spin at Palm Meadows Jan. 22--much faster than what any of the other nine workers at that distance went in.

With Fort Loudon (Awesome of Course)’s speed figures ruling him out for the top slot, this becomes a two-horse race between Algorithms (Bernardini) and Consortium (Bernardini). While the former came out ahead in the first "Battle of the Bernardinis" here with a slightly tougher trip going 6 1/2 furlongs Dec. 16, Consortium offers more upside--especially at this longer distance. Algorithms hails from a family of predominantly sprinters (namely Keyed Entry and Justin Phillip), whereas Consortium is the first foal out of a GSW at 1 1/8 miles who was out of a nine-furlong GSW herself. Consortium also gets Lasix for the first time--trainer Kiaran McLaughlin boasts a $2.28 ROI (23%) over the past five years with horses adding Lasix in stakes races, according to DRF Formulator. McLaughlin swept Aqueduct’s 3-year-old stakes Jan. 7 with Captivating Lass (A.P. Indy) and Alpha (Bernardini)--both were adding Lasix and ran new Beyer tops in victory.

Consortium won’t be too high of a price facing just five foes, but his odds will be inflated thanks to the presence of Hansen. Something in the 3-1 or 7-2 range would be value. A straight double with Sacristy (Pulpit) in the preceding GII Forward Gal S. might also be a worthwhile play. While she figures to be a short price, if the field remains intact, she is a very likely winner due to the projected pace scenario.

For a longshot, take a look at In The Beat (Street Sense) in Race 7, a tough 8 1/2-furlong allowance that features several runners that should probably be in the Holy Bull. While In The Beat only has one race in his career that makes him competitive here, his Nov. 26 maiden breaker was very solid and hard to explain away. He came from far off a slow pace, earned a competitive Beyer with this bunch (83) and has been flattered by runner-up Radiant Talent (Johannesburg), who earned an 88 when donning cap and gown before finishing a solid second in a Fair Grounds allowance. In The Beat figures to appreciate this trip, despite failing to show up at a mile here Jan. 7. He was never put into the race in that effort behind a slow pace, and now gets a rider change with several solid-looking drills in the interim for team Street Sense (Tafel/Nafzger).

Sophomore Spotlight: Kentucky Oaks Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

While the Kentucky Oaks lost its most talented runner with the unfortunate defection of R Heat Lightning, it became a much better betting race in her absence. Two of the race’s favorites figure to be significant underlays, and most of the other contenders--and there are quite a few--will offer good value because of their more-fancied rivals disproportionate support.

Joyful Victory
(c) Wendy Wooley/EquiSport

Joyful Victory should be somewhere in the
2-1 range, but her reputation is based more on the mere margins of her last two victories rather than objective analyses of those performances. Decidedly a cut below the best of her generation at two when under the tutelage of Tony Dutrow, the grey was turned over to Larry Jones for her sophomore campaign and reeled off 8 3/4 and seven-length victories in the GIII Honeybee and GII Fantasy respectively. In the Honeybee, Joyful Victory saved all the ground and sat off a very fast pace in a perfect position. She did make an eye-catching move to sweep by the leaders turning for home, but her facile trip leading up to that point and the slow Beyer Figure she earned (82) do not warrant the hype she received. It was more of the same last out in the Fantasy, as Joyful Victory allowed her only competition--the lightly raced and somewhat rushed Arienza--to chase an overmatched foe through quick fractions before picking up the pieces late and drawing off. That race yielded another slow figure for Joyful Victory (83). The fastest speed figures often tend to come from a race favorite, but this is a rare instance where the chalk has a distinct disadvantage according to the numbers. Only four of the field’s runners have a lower Beyer top; three of those fillies are 50-1 on the morning line and the fourth is 20-1. Joyful Victory can certainly win, but her chance of wearing the lilies is drastically lower than what her odds will reflect. Kathmanblu will be similarly underlaid. She does have a visually impressive win over the strip in last year’s GII Golden Rod, but the bay has always given the impression that she is better on the grass.

St. John's River (c) Horsephotos

I’ll spread out in the Pick 4 and hope to be alive to five runners, but my value selection in the Oaks is St. John’s River, who is a very generous 30-1 on the morning line. She reminds me of my Derby pick (*spoiler alert*) Nehro in the progression she shows and the lightly raced runner appears poised for another step forward. St. John’s River has been the victim of ground loss in every one of her starts, and was caught wide again last out in the Fair Grounds Oaks behind a dawdling pace. She closed quickly and resolutely, but was left with too much to do and came up a half-length short. St. John’s River figures to appreciate the added 1/16th of a mile--her full-sister Panty Raid ran a nine-point Beyer top in her first 1 1/8-mile test in the GII Black Eyed Susan, and went on to become a Grade I winner at the distance on Polytrack and a Grade I winner at 1 1/4 miles on turf. While St. John’s River will offer the most value, Zazu is the most likely winner. She had an advantageous set-up when closing into a super-quick pace to defeat Turbulent Descent and Plum Pretty in the GI Las Virgenes, but Zazu came back to validate that performance when she fell a neck short of Turbulent Descent in the GI Santa Anita Oaks under much less favorable circumstances. She figures to get plenty of speed to run at here, and will be tough to hold off if she reproduces an effort comparable to what she has been running out in California.

I will also use Plum Pretty somewhat protectively, as her 25-length romp in the Sunland Park Oaks is difficult to take at face value, but also difficult to completely dismiss; Daisy Devine, who seems to be getting a bit overlooked despite pretty decent form; and Her Smile, an interesting acquisition by Bobby Flay and Todd Pletcher. As mentioned above, I will use five horses in the Pick 4, pressing St. John’s River and Zazu. I will also play St. John’s River to win, box her in the exacta with the other horses I’m playing in the Pick 4, and use her with a number of runners in the Oaks/Derby double.