Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

KEE 3 - Alw, 7f (AWT) - Maybe it’s crazy to expect anything close to the 8-1 morning line quote on Ghostly Wonder, but well-regarded runners Twang and Green Mask should take their fair share of action, as could Augusta Road considering The Masters is this weekend (I know it sounds crazy, but watch him take more money than you’d normally expect). Dismissed as the longest shot in field of five first out at Arlington in June, 11-1 Ghostly Wonder dueled with the well-bet favorite before leaving him in the dust for a very easy 4 1/2-length score. Now I know what you’re thinking--beating four runners at Arlington isn’t any major accomplishment. But that favorite was Spot, who took the GII Swale last month. Two others won their next starts, including last-place finisher No Surrender, who resurfaced at Hawthorne Mar. 28 to romp by 6 1/2 lengths and earn a 92 Beyer. Ghostly Wonder earned a solid 79 Beyer for his win—which stacks up well with the rest of the field, and projects out to something in the 90 to 100 range by the old rule that young horses should improve 1 1/2 to 2 points per month of development. I’m not saying Ghostly Wonder is going to run a 100, but he can run a lot slower that that and still take this. Play: Win on #2 Ghostly Wonder (8-1).

KEE 9 - GI Madison S. - Turnbacks seem to be at a huge advantage going seven furlongs on the Keeneland Poly, and there are three in here that I strongly prefer over favorite Judy the Beauty, who I think is probably best going shorter. The most obvious of the three is Better Lucky--she’s a very nice turf miler, but is two-for-four sprinting and must be included. There’s also Byrama, who I’ve always believed is a better sprinter. She was very unlucky not to win this race last year as she was blocked for most of the stretch, and she makes the same cut back from a turf mile that she did last year, albeit for new connections this time around. The third horse I’m interested in is Eden Prairie. She cut back to just miss at 10-1 in the track-and-trip Raven Run in October, and has improved her speed figures markedly in three runs on the Fair Grounds lawn since. She also has the advantage of good tactical speed. Play: Win on #7 Byrama (6-1) OR #9 Eden Prairie (10-1) (whoever is higher in relation to their morning line), exacta box with #6 Better Lucky. DDs 6,7,9 w/ 8.

KEE 10 - GI Jenny Wiley S. - Speed has done extremely well on the turf so far this meet, and there isn’t an abundance of it here. Discreet Marq already would have been formidable anyway, but now she should be doubly tough over this surface. I was particularly impressed with her runner-up finish in the GI Matriarch last time Dec. 1. That was a solid field of older runners, and she gave locally based Egg Drop all she could handle to only get beat a nose. There are certainly others you have to use in exotics, but my money’s on Discreet Marq to make the lead and never look back. Play: Win on #8 Discreet Marq (6-1).

SA 6 - Alw, 7f - This is a pretty nice group of 3-year-olds. I really thought highly of Indexical last year—I loved his work at Barretts May, and though he could only manage a fifth-place finish with some trouble on debut at Del Mar in July, he returned the following month to break his maiden at 16-1 with the addition of blinker--two spots ahead of eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day. I can dismiss his close seventh after setting a slightly quick pace in the GI Del Mar Futurity, and turf route attempt when fifth last out in October’s Zuma Beach. Now he tries dirt for the first time, which seems likely to be his best surface, and should be right there with any improvement on his maiden breaker (I do worry that he’ll need a start off the bench, but the price should be right). Play: Win on #10 Indexical (12-1), exacta box with #4 Papa Turf, #8 Top Fortitude, #9 True Ten.

GP 9 - MSW, 1 1/16mT - This one’s admittedly a bit speculative, but Classy Kid will likely be an overlay in his turf debut for Mark Frostad. The 4-year-old showed early interest before fading to a distant fifth when unveiled sprinting here Feb. 28, but he never really figured to fire his best under those circumstances for a patient first-out trainer. By versatile, but usually better turf sire Lemon Drop Kid, Classy Kid is out of Grade III-winning turfer Dynamite Lass (Dynaformer), who never set foot on a main track. None of Dynamite Lass’s previous foals have been superstars, but they’ve definitely preferred routing and/or grass, and Classy Kid should follow that trend. Play: Win on #5 Classy Kid (20-1), exacta behind #1 Siete C, exacta box with #7 Knight of Valor, #8 Smart Spree, #10 Chunnel.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

AQU 8 - GIII Bay Shore S. - I picked Financial Mogul in the GIII Gotham S. as part of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby showdown, and mentioned (click here) after his even fourth-place finish that I thought he might appreciate a cut-back in distance. He gets it here, and should offer plenty of value. The dark bay romped by 5 1/2 lengths at Saratoga last time he tried seven panels, and he shows some quick works since the Gotham. I’ll also use Favorite Tale, who has crushed weaker competition at Parx in all three of his previous outings and could get a bit disrespected here; and another turn-back in The Admiral--his sprint debut and seven-furlong maiden breaker two back were both solid. I’m against favorite Kobe’s Back--he’s just way too obvious and inconsistent. Play: Win on #3 Financial Mogul (8-1), also using #6 Favorite Tale and #7 The Admiral in exotics.

AQU 11 - GI Carter H. - I love Clearly Now here. He was plagued by tough trips last season, including when finishing a very good second over track and trip 12 months ago in the Bay Shore. He showed what he could do with a better trip when he took Belmont’s GIII Bold Ruler H. with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure two back, but nearly went down after clipping heels on the turn in the GI Cigar Mile before settling for a solid fifth all things considered. Seven furlongs is probably Clearly Now’s ideal distance, and I look for him to sit just off the speed before pouncing. I’ll also hope to be alive in the pick four to last year’s Carter runner-up Sahara Sky as well as GI Malibu runner-up Central Banker. Play: (Large) Win on #2 Clearly Now (5-1), also using #1 Central Banker and #6 Sahara Sky in exotics.

SA 4 - MSW, 3yo, 6 1/2fT - I have a feeling that first-time starter Designated can run a bit. The Pam and Marty Wygod homebred is out of a mare who had some speed on the track before dropping talented sprinter Idiot Proof, a debut winner, Grade I winner on synth, Grade III winner on dirt and second in both the 2007 GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint and 2008 G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He also finished second in a Del Mar turf sprint stakes try. Another half-brother also won his debut and did most of his work in synthetic sprints. By a top turf (and overall) sire in Smart Strike, Designated shows some strong works up at Golden Gate for Jedd Josephson. Josephson has excellent numbers in two relevant categories. He’s two-for-four when shipping down to Santa Anita, including a 13-1 stakes upset down the hill here in 2011 and third with a 17-1 shot in an optional claimer a couple of weeks ago. Josephson also has very strong debut numbers--he’s 17% with a $3.75 ROI from a large sample size over the past five seasons (stats courtesy DRF Formulator). Included in those debut winners is last year’s champion juvenile Shared Belief, who Josephson unveiled for the Wygods up at Golden Gate in October before he was sold privately. Play: Win on #6 Designated (8-1), exacta box with #5 Footstepsinbronze.

SA 7 - GIII Providencia S. - Favorites Diversy Harbor and Nashoba’s Gold are both talented fillies with tons of upside, but it’s hard not to take a shot against them here considering the much different pace scenario they’ll face this time from when they ran one-two in the China Doll S. last out. The pace was very hotly contested in that one-mile affair, but there’s only one confirmed front-runner signed on here: One More. One More graduated against $75,000 maiden claimers two back over a mile of this turf course, and set a relatively unpressured pace last time to annex a course-and-distance (1 1/8 miles) allowance Mar. 13. She certainly didn’t have the toughest of trips that day, but I liked how she finished and think she’s a little better than the speed figure gap between her and the top two choices would suggest. Now, besides a win bet on One More, playing this race could get a little tricky. I’ll definitely use One More and the chalks in horizontal wagers, but I’ll also try to get some bombs into the trifecta. Longshots Full Ransom and Savings Account could find themselves closer to a slow pace this time and at least one of them could hit the board. So I’ll play 10 w/ 4,5,6,8 w/ 4,5,6,8, and 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 4,5,6,8. I’ll also play a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 5,6 superfecta (not sure there’s much point in playing a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 TRI). Play: Win on #10 One More (6-1) and the exotics outlined above.

KEE 9 - GI Ashland S. - I’m not expecting the 15-1 she is on the morning line, but Rosalind has a big shot in here. The Ken McPeek trainee was a late-charging second in the GI Darley Alcibiades over this track and trip in October, and put in a similar run to be third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies the following month. Fourth with a wide journey in the GI Hollywood Starlet, she had some excuses when third on seasonal debut behind last Saturday’s GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner In Tune at Gulfstream Feb. 27. Steadied pretty significantly early, Rosalind was caught behind a slow pace over a track that favored speed for much of the meet. She’ll get tons of pace this time, returns to a synthetic strip, and sports a local bullet work. I expect her to have a say at decent odds. Play: Win on #8 Rosalind (15-1).

OP 9 - GIII Fantasy S. - I like two horses here and I’m going to try to get both of them on the board. I have to give Kiss Moon one more chance to run back to her excellent allowance score here Jan. 11—she set a very hot pace that day, but kept right on going to win by 9 1/2 lengths. A puzzling seventh as the favorite in the Martha Washington S. after that, Kiss Moon showed a little more life to be fourth behind a few of these rivals in the roughly run GIII Honeybee S. I’m not sure why Kiss Moon hasn’t been closer to the lead in her last two, but I expect she’ll be hard-sent this time—she adds blinkers and sports two quick works in the interim. Mufajaah returns on short rest since taking her second straight Mar. 23. She just has the look of a really talented horse—she won at will last out and there’s no reason she can’t handle the step up in class. I’m curious to see how hard they bet her. Play: Win on #5 Kiss Moon (12-1), exacta box with #4 Mufajaah. Trifectas 4,5 w/ ALL w/ 4,5.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Breeders' Cup Memoirs--Bobby Frankel

by Christina Bossinakis

   The 2008 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita is without a doubt among my top BC picks, because it encompasses both the rise and denouement of one of history’s greatest American trainers, Bobby Frankel. That year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint featured Juddmonte’s Ventura, a raven-colored mare who was as fiery as she was fast, possessing as strong a sense of self as I’d ever seen in a racehorse. In fact, I remember thinking, if I could come back to this life as a horse, I would be Ventura. Closing from far off a crisp pace, Ventura left the likes of Indian Blessing and Zaftig in her dust. However, most of whom were on hand that day--myself include--had no way of knowing they had just witnessed Bobby’s final Breeders’ Cup win.
   In what would turn out to be both a figurative and literal passing of the baton, the undercard featured a young trainer making his Breeders’ Cup debut. Chad Brown, who served as one of Frankel’s main assistants for five years, went out on his own at the end of 2007 after saddling the Adena Springs-raced mare Ginger Punch prior to her victory in the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Monmouth. It was at the time that I met Chad, and I made regular stops by the Frankel barn to check on the mare and chat with my new friend. Fast forward a year, Chad ventured west with a graded-stakes winning filly named Maram. Always looking for a good story, I dropped by to say hello and, following a full-blown TDN feature, and more importantly, a win in the 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf later in the week, Chad went from backstretch to big time in the blink of an eye. 

VENTURA
Steve Sherack Photo

   In what could have been a fitting finale for her legendary trainer, Ventura returned to Santa Anita in 2009 to try and defend her Breeders’ Cup title. With owner Prince Kahlid Abdullah in attendance, she was both the sentimental and logical choice to round out the career of the Hall of Fame trainer. But it was not to be. Hampered by a modest early pace and, most unfortunate to run into the ultra-talented filly Informed Decision, Ventura mounted a gallant challenge late but had to settle for second best that day. Less than a month later, Bobby passed away after losing his battle with Cancer. There would be no storybook ending this time. And while it would have been nice to have Europe’s super star Frankel (GB) round out his career on Breeders’ Cup day in his namesake’s former stomping ground, Bobby’s legacy continues to live on through all the people and horses formerly associated with the great trainer.
   Go Awesome Feather.