Belmont Derby Horse-by-Horse Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

#1 Toast of New York (3-1) - Enters this as the buzz horse off a decisive 2 1/2-length win in the G2 UAE Derby in March (video), but I’m very much against him here. For starters, I’m not sure he beat much at Meydan. He’s also completely unproven on turf, with all three of his wins having come on synthetic surfaces. The bay certainly doesn’t have Bobby’s Kitten speed, but he’s rail drawn and tactical--there’s a good chance he could get taken out of his game having to chase a type of speed he's never seen before. Potentially being fresh off the break won't help matters. At a short price, he can beat me.

#2 Sheldon (30-1) - Trainer Jimmy Toner is red hot, but can’t imagine this recent maiden winner making much of an impact on the steep class hike.

#3 Bobby’s Kitten (6-1) - Clearly this aforementioned speedster has serious ability, but I just can’t envision him seeing out 10 panels—especially against a field of this caliber. He rated effectively last time in the Penn Mile (video), but he was tugging pretty hard, and two more furlongs just can’t possibly be better for him.

#4 Adelaide (7-2) - This is the type of European I look for--he seems like a major stand-out. The bay is lightly raced with plenty of upside, and is already a convincing Group 3 winner over heavy ground going this distance in the G3 Gallinule S. (video). He had a less-than-perfect trip last time in Royal Ascot's G2 King Edward VII S. (video), but did well enough to be second going an additional quarter mile. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Aidan O'Brien is nine-for-35 (26%) with a $3.21 ROI in North America over the past five years with horses running on Lasix--hard to argue with that stat.

#5 Flamboyant (15-1) - Thought his winning Stateside debut in Santa Anita's La Puente S. (video) was visually impressive (and looks even better after the runner-up took his next two), but didn't like how he let Gala Award battle back in the Pennine Ridge. Not sold on him at this distance, but wouldn't be shocked if he won or ran well.

#6 Dance With Fate (10-1) - Definitely appears better on turf or synthetic. His GI Blue Grass S. win was nice (video), even if he got a solid pace set-up. Has some distance questions to answer, but he was running on pretty well in the GI Kentucky Derby. Definitely one of the better U.S.-based chances.

#7 Gailo Chop (5-1) - One of the harder reads in the race for me. He beat a horse in the G3 Prix la Force (video) who came back to beat Adelaide, but he did get a perfect drafting trip to do it. Then he seemed to get away with an easy lead last out in the Prix Noailles (video). He may run into a similar problem like that of Toast of New York--he's not as fast as Bobby's Kitten, but the race won't be run slow up front like he's accustomed to and he might get dragged into running too fast early. I also don't like that he's not getting Lasix. Play against at 5-1, but could see reevaluating if he gets lost on the tote.

#8 Pornichet (10-1) - I'm a big fan of the "other Euro" angle, and this is the horse who fits the bill. He wasn't beaten much when third in the G1 Poule d'Essai des Poulains (video) and, most interestingly, is now trained by legendary Australian conditioner Gai Waterhouse after a private purchase. Distance is, again, the big question, but previous conditioner Nicolas Clement was already considering the bay for this event, and Waterhouse purchased him as a G1 Melbourne Cup prospect, so the consensus among some very capable horsepeople seems to be that he'll handle the trip just fine.

#9 Mr Speaker (15-1) - Was on the verge of tossing this runner when I remembered my new rule to give every Shug McGaughey horse going 10 furlongs or more an extra look--according to Formulator, he's a gaudy 34% with a $3.29 ROI in that category over the past five seasons. Mr Speaker's form was very good before the Pennine Ridge, in which he pretty much stopped after finding himself on the lead. I'm just going to toss his last and give him another shot at a much bigger price than what he would have been had he run to his 95-100 odds last time.

#10 Global View (12-1) - Closed very quickly to win the GII American Turf S. two back (video), but that race came against a much weaker field. Was no match for Bobby's Kitten last time in the Penn Mile, and while as a Galileo he should appreciate the trip, there's no way he'll appreciate it more than the other Galileo (Adelaide).

#11 Gala Award (10-1) - Was a deserving winner of the Pennine Ridge (video), and he also beat Mr Speaker (who rallied from very far back) earlier this year in the GIII Palm Beach S. The 11 post is by no means a death sentence at 10 panels, but it does put him in an awkward position tactically. Can see him getting a wide trip out in no man's land, and not sure he's good enough to overcome such a disadvantage. Figures to take money as well considering his connections.

Play: Win on #4 Adelaide at 3-1+. Exacta key box 4 w/ #6 Dance With Fate, #8 Pornichet and #9 Mr Speaker. Will use those four in pick threes and doubles (and an imaginary all-stakes pick four). 

Belmont Oaks Horse-by-Horse Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

#1 Gold Espony (10-1) - Seems like a true 1 1/4-mile horse--has pretty much run exclusively at or close to the distance. Really liked her win three back in the Prix Rose de Mai (video), in which her final time was some :04 2/5 quicker than Belmont Derby contender Gailo Chop over the same course and distance on the same card. Not sure how much stock you can put in French final times, but it's certainly noteworthy. Was game to subsequently annex the G3 Prix Penelope (video), but didn't run a step in the G1 Prix Saint-Alary. Maybe she bled? Gets Lasix for strong connections--major chance, especially if she's sent right to the front in a field that isn't filled with true speed.

#2 Room Service (3-1) - Her last two races look good on paper, but she might be a little dressed up. The early pace of the GI Ashland S. (video) was off-the-charts fast, and the GI American Oaks featured a three-way pace battle up front that set the table for closers (video). Don't see her getting the same set-up here, and she won't be much of a price.

#3 My Conquestadory (12-1) - Was vastly overrated after her win in the GI Alcibiades S. last fall (video), but she ran better than I expected when fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Resurfaced in Woodbine's GIII Selene S. in May, and was out-nosed despite setting glacial fractions (video). She'll have to run a whole lot better here to compete, and think she'll prove best as a late-running miler.

#4 Summer Solo (30-1) - She's a nice filly, but this is a very tall task.

#5 Flying Jib (5-1) - One of my favorite types of Euros to bet against--she's almost certainly going to find this trip too far. Sire Oasis Dream was an excellent sprinter who finished 10th in the 2003 BC Mile in his only route attempt; dam Jibboom was a nice Frankel runner, but she never won beyond 1 1/16 miles and was probably best at about seven furlongs.

#6 Rosalind (12-1) - Got the same set-up in the Ashland as Room Service. Can excuse her GI Kentucky Oaks fourth (though she didn't run terribly all things considered). Dropped her rider when ambitiously spotted in Royal Ascot's G1 Coronation S. June 20, so certainly doesn't come into this optimally. Always seems to have a following, and still not sure how good she is.

#7 Xcellence (5-2) - Morning-line favorite seems to be getting plenty of buzz on twitter off two thirds in Group 1 company. Handled more ground in the Prix de Diane last time (video), but she's done nothing to suggest she's some sort of world beater. For as profitable as it can be to bet Europeans in American grass races, the shorter-priced runners are rarely the ones you want. Doesn't get Lasix, and won't be getting much of my money--maybe just on some back-up tickets.

#8 Wonderfully (12-1) - It's impossible to know what to do with this horse. She's been a complete non-factor in two races this year. Maybe Lasix will help, but her 2013 form was decent enough that it doesn't seem particularly likely that bleeding is the issue. Using sparingly by default.

#9 Minorette (12-1) - Has run sneaky-well in both of her Stateside races. Was simply too far back in a front-end dominated one-mile allowance at Keeneland Apr. 6, but still flew home to be third. Runner-up A Little Bit Sassy returned to annex the Edgewood S. before getting DQ'd in the GIII Regret S. Chad Brown trainee made a wide, premature move in the Wonder Again S. (video) before getting reeled in by Sea Queen. Could be poised for another step forward, and more ground shouldn't be a problem if she gets a better trip.

#10 Recepta (20-1) - Don't expect her to find the improvement she needs with the added ground.

#11 Sea Queen (10-1) - First inclination was to take a negative view considering what a perfect trip she had in the Wonder Again, but it's not like the rest of her form isn't solid. Going to include, but again, sort of by default since I'm against the favorites.

Play: Win on #1 Gold Espony at 8-1+ or #9 Minorette at 12-1+. Chad Brown 1,9 exacta box. Additional exacta box 1,9,11; and smaller exacta box 1,8,9,11. Will likely cover Xcellence in some horizontal wagers.

A Tale of Two Trips

--Brian DiDonato

   In both Grade I races run for 2-year-olds this past Saturday--the Champagne and the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity--one can make the argument that the runner-up was best. One trip was obvious, so much so that it will be blown out of proportion going forward, while the other is far less likely to be picked up on by the wagering public.
   Anyone who saw Honor Code's late run in the Champagne was rightfully impressed (click for chart and video). Devoid of early speed, the hulking son of A.P. Indy was spun very wide into the stretch (seven or eight paths by solid third-place finisher Ride On Curlin) and flew home to fall a neck short of speedy fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Havana. It was a move that just looked so good visually that it only served to add to the hype surrounding a horse who seems to already rest atop many a 2014 Derby list.
   But when all the factors are considered, it might be a performance that looked better to the naked eye than it does when subjected to scrutiny. For starters, Havana worked hard every step of the way, pressing an above-average pace from second, while Honor Code conserved his energy at the back of the pack. It's telling that pacesetter Debt Ceiling finished last, while Grand Arrival, next-closest early, finished second-to-last.
   According to Trakus data, Honor Code covered 20 ft. (~2.4 lengths) more than Havana in the Champagne, but where he covered the extra ground is important. The dark bay didn't come off the rail until he started to approach the stretch. Ground loss at this point in a race is almost never the detriment that some believe it is. In addition to keeping a horse out of trouble and free to lengthen his stride, it allows him to build up additional momentum (I'm certainly no scientist, but it's centrifugal force or something). The wider a horse (or a bike, ice skater, etc.) turns into a straight, the more inertia they'll carry. So while a horse who goes wide into the lane has to cover more ground, they make up for it with the additional forward momentum they generate by a larger arc. Ground loss is definitely a major trip factor at other points of a race, but it is much less of a detriment late on the home turn and into the straight.

Honor Code (outside) falls just short of Havana
NYRA/Coglianese

   Breeders' Futurity runner-up Smarty's Echo, meanwhile, ran very well to be second, all things considered (click for chart and video). The 11-1 shot was fairly close to an extremely fast pace (25 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter), and never found cover. He was three or four wide at best throughout the two-turn contest, and traveled 23 feet more (~2.7 lengths) than the eventual 2 3/4-length winner We Miss Artie, who drafted early before tipping out under a perfect John Velazquez ride. (Interestingly, Horse of the Year Wise Dan went down at 1-2 one race later in the Shadwell 'Turf' Mile with a Smarty's Echo-like ride from Velazquez).
   Smarty's Echo only earned a 65 Beyer Speed Figure in what looks like a mediocre renewal of the Breeders' Futurity, but he did earn an 82 Beyer previously for his Arlington maiden breaker, and figures to offer some value wherever he shows up next. He ran much better on Saturday than he will be given credit for. Honor Code, on the other hand, possesses a world of upside, but everyone sees it. He's certainly good, but will definitely be overbet next time--perhaps so much so that he could be favored over Havana if he shows up at the Breeders' Cup. Horses with Honor Code's profile often end up being money burners, and Honor Code seems like he could be one of those types.

Belmont Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

1. Frac Daddy - Pro: These connections did dead-heat for the win in last year’s Travers with impossible-to-have Golden Ticket, and conditioner Ken McPeek did upset the 2002 renewal of this with 70-1 shot Sarava. Con: Where are his good races? Hasn’t come close to running back to maiden romp in November and his second in the Arkansas Derby was a total clunk up job. Verdict: Not seeing it.

2. Freedom Child - Pro: His break-out romp in the Peter Pan last time was very impressive and he may be peaking at the right time. Has the ever-dangerous fresh face angle on his side and has looked good in the mornings. Con: The Peter Pan was run over a sloppy track, and while similar conditions are very possible Saturday, it’s probably best to look at that performance with at least a little skepticism. Pace may pose a serious problem, as on pace figures he appears likely to get himself in trouble early. Verdict: Wouldn’t toss completely, as he clearly has some talent and upside, but will only use defensively as the pace appears like it might do him in.

3. Overanalyze - Pro: Does have two graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, and one race that’s close to fast enough. He may have had the sneakiest trip of anyone in the Derby while finishing 11th--was shuffled back to last on the far turn, but made a nice run in the lane despite additional traffic trouble. Con: His pedigree certainly doesn’t scream 1 1/2 miles, but another son of Dixie Union (who I completely tossed, partially because of his pedigree) did win the Belmont last year. Verdict: Have never been a fan of his at all and don’t think he’s anything special, but he fits the profile of a horse who could make some noise here and I’m willing to excuse his very obvious pedigree concerns because of past success at nine furlongs--especially at double-digit odds.

4. Giant Finish - Pro: He’d be a nice Big Apple Triple candidate. Con: He already missed the first leg of the Big Apple Triple last Saturday. Verdict: No.

5. Orb - Pro: The positives are pretty obvious for him--he should get pace again, he might get slop again, and he figures to love the distance. Con: The jury was still out on him a bit going into the Derby, and while most of us (myself included) were willing to buy the hype after that race, it seems we were much too forgiving of the dream pace set-up he and the other on-the-board finishers enjoyed. Now can you really take him as a favorite off that mediocre (at best) effort in the Preakness? Verdict: Think he’ll be an underlay, but he’s going to get very similar circumstances to those that helped him garner all the hype. Certainly can’t toss.

6. Incognito - Pro: Obviously bred for this, being by A.P. Indy (Belmont winner and sire of a Belmont winner) out of Octave, winner of the local GI CCA Oaks at 10 furlongs. Overcame a world of trouble to beat older (weak) optional claiming foes two back, and was simply never put in a position to win last time in the Peter Pan. It was really a perplexing ride--he was dragged far out of it and never allowed to run until it was much too late. The grey did fly home, however, and galloped out in front. A rider change can’t hurt. Con: Somewhat immature and may find his own trouble, plus he does need to run much faster. Morning impressions have been a bit negative. Verdict: I’m playing him--he’s super dirtied up trip wise and has the best pedigree in the race for 1 1/2 miles.

7. Oxbow - Pro: He finally put it all together last time, and earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure vs. Orb’s 104 for the Derby. His stout pedigree is well-documented. Con: I know it’s been fashionable to call the pace Oxbow set in the Preakness “fair” rather than “slow,” but I’m not so sure--the Moss Pace Figures have the opening half five points below par. If that’s fair, it’s definitely on the slow side of fair. And isn’t the pace guaranteed to be faster this time? Can’t see Stevens taking back considering how well the horse ran when sent. Verdict: A classic “last time was the time” horse.

8. Midnight Taboo - Pro: Probably has upside considering how lightly raced he is. Dam is a half to the dam of Belmont winner and Horse of the Year Point Given. Con: May not have the foundation to go 12 furlongs just yet. Did have some traffic trouble when second in allowance company last time, but didn’t really seem to have the punch to get himself out of trouble. Verdict: Connections giving off a vibe that he’s running just to run, so hard to have much faith in him.

9. Revolutionary - Pro: Hasn’t been off the board in his seven-race career, and handled the slop fine last time in the Derby. His sire (War Pass) wouldn’t have gotten the Belmont distance, but he’s out of an Alabama winner and gets plenty of stamina from his dam’s side. Con: Was clearly third best in the Derby--covered less ground than both Orb and Golden Soul, and was simply out-kicked by a 34-1 shot. Hasn’t looked spectacular in the mornings. Verdict: Called him “the most likely winner” of the Derby and he ran ok, but now I’m tossing. Go figure.

10. Will Take Charge - Pro: Everyone saw the trouble he had in the Derby--was moving right with Orb before getting stopped by Verrazano. Is a very large horse with a grinding style that is conducive to Big Sandy and this race. Going third off the lay-off now after being trained up to the Derby. Con: Never did any running in the Preakness--just never really seemed to get going while well off the pace. Verdict: Using him again--this might be the race where he shows up at a huge price.

11. Vyjack - Pro: He’s a really nice horse up to about 1 1/16 miles. Was very wide in the Derby. Con: Has given zero indication that he wants to go this far. Verdict: Probably would win the Woody Stephens, but this is five furlongs farther.

12. Palace Malice - Pro: Obviously, you can’t take his Derby at face value considering the insane pace he set. Con: While he’s bred to run long, has always struck me as a horse with serious distance limitations. Everyone’s acting like he’s going to turn into Silky Sullivan losing the blinkers, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not again close to the pace, which figures to be legitimate. Verdict: He’ll ultimately prove better going much shorter than this--possibly on grass.

13. Unlimited Budget - Pro: Has never run a bad race, and her only loss last time in the Oaks came when she was close to a quick pace. Con: Still, runner-up Beholder was closer to that pace, and Unlimited Budget just didn’t show much kick. Not sure how much stamina she gets from the bottom half of her pedigree. Don’t buy the notion that the colts and fillies this year are evenly matched. Verdict: Nice horse, but probably the underlay of the race on the morning line at 8-1. Not using.

14. Golden Soul - Pro: Gave him a bit of a chance to clunk up and hit the board in the Derby, and he did. Should appreciate even more distance and might get identical circumstances here. Con: Did have a lot go his way in the Derby, and hard to take him at a much shorter price than he was last time. Verdict: No real reason he can’t hit the board again as this may have the makings of a Derby repeat, but expect him to find at least one better.

How I’m playing: Would like to be alive to as many as possible in here as this has chaos race written all over it. In the actual race, I’ll bet Incognito to win at what figures to be 20-1+. Will also play an exacta box of Incognito, Overanalyze and Will Take Charge. Will probably work in Orb and Golden Soul as well, but the Belmont’s a race to swing for the fences in, so I’ll be looking for a nice $800+ pay-out for every $2.

Weekend Graded Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

FRIDAY

KEE R8 - GIII Phoenix S. - Cajun Breeze is 50-1 on the morning line--anybody want to give me 40? I can't resist this horse considering the price he'll be, which I'm guessing will be more like 15 or 20-1. His Gulfstream form early this year was solid enough and it just seems like there was enough going against him in his last four tries to warrant giving him one more chance to return to his best races. The turnback from a fifth-place finish going a mile on the Saratoga turf adds to the appeal big time. I like that he was able to show speed on the lawn, which could translate to an ability to handle Polytrack, plus I thought Cajun Breeze ran a big enough race considering how wide he was on the first turn and how quick he went early. A pace collapse seems inevitable considering the 3-year-olds in here, so I'll look for Cajun Breeze to take back and make one run, like he did when almost winning the Sunshine Millions Sprint. Other turnback Night Party and GII Commonwealth S. winner Lonesome Street will also be on my exacta and pick four tickets.

KEE R9 - GI Alcibiades S. - What an excellent betting race--definitely a spread in the pick four--but I'm looking forward to getting a good win price on 'TDN Rising Star' Pure Indy, who my esteemed colleague Steve Sherack is even higher on than I am. Backed down to 3-1 for trainer Craig Dollase and West Point/Lakland Farm first out at Del Mar going 5 1/2 furlongs Sept. 1, the leggy chestnut lagged at the back early before switching out and inhaling her foes for a going-away success. She never looked comfortable, however, as the 7-5 favorite in Fairplex's Barretts Debutante S. two weeks later, and came under an early ride before checking in fifth. I'm willing to excuse that performance over a quirky surface, and think the move back to Polytrack plus the added distance will suit Pure Indy well. She's out of an A.P. Indy half-sister to MGISW turf router Pure Clan (also a MGSW router at two on dirt and third in the Kentucky Oaks), who was by the same sire as Pure Indy in Pure Prize. Pure Indy's GSW second dam also produced Greater Good, a GSW dirt router at two and three who was third in the 2005 Derby.

SATURDAY

BEL R8 - GI Champagne S.  - The New York-based 2-year-old males haven't impressed me yet for the most part this year, and I especially can't buy into the Archwarrior hype. His debut was fine, and obviously he's bred to prefer more ground, but you're definitely supposed to let him beat you if he's actually going to go favored over stablemate Shanghai Bobby. I'm against the latter, too, but could see playing him if the Archwarrior steam gets out of control. The obvious alternative is Goldencents, who romped by 7 1/4 lengths going box to wire at Del Mar Sept. 2 with a field's-best last-out Beyer of 93. His Moss Pace Figure line precludes me from liking him too much, however--he went his first quarter in a time that was 15 points below par on the Moss scale. He still flew home, so I'll use him in the pick four, but I can't take him to win. That leaves European invader Chief Havoc, who's certainly an intriguing entrant here. He's still a maiden, but looks to have some sneaky ability and could take to the dirt. The tall, green Kentucky bred came on late to be third on debut over the Kempton synth Aug. 29, and was second against a tough group of winners at Newbury just two weeks ago--both starts were at a mile. He kind of reminds me of Dullahan before he broke his maiden in last year's Breeders' Futurity--you know there's talent there, it's just a matter of when he'll figure it all out. One would think, being by Giant's Causeway, he might be best on turf, but there's enough dirt pedigree on his dam's side that it wouldn't be shocking if he takes to the main track--the price will be right to find out. Out of versatile La Reina (A.P. Indy), winner of the GIII Tempted S. going a mile on the dirt at Aqueduct, Chief Havoc's second dam is champion older mare Queena, a Grade I winner on dirt at 7f, 8f and 8 1/2f. Queena also produced the good turfer Brahms. Trainer Jeremy Noseda took the 2010 GIII Gotham S. on the Big A main track with Awesome Act, and he scored on this card last year with Western Aristocrat in the Jamaica.

BEL R9 - GI Jamaica H. - While Cogito is 4-1 vs. Summer Front's 5-1 price on the morning line, I'm hoping Summer Front gets backed down to second choice behind the very formidable favorite Dullahan so I can get a more generous price on the only possible upsetter. Some handicappers have claimed that Dullahan's just a synthetic specialist, but he's run well on turf before and he's probably a better horse now than he was last time he tried grass... if you think there's actually a meaningful difference between the two surfaces (especially the Polytrack brand). I'm much more against Summer Front, who I think has proven he has very little chance of beating Dullahan at his best. Cogito, on the other hand, has maybe a 30 or 40% chance of being just plain old better than Dullahan and an 80% chance of winning if Dullahan doesn't show up. His runner-up effort in the G2 Prix Eugene Adam in July has been seriously flattered ever since, and I think he was clearly best that day. He was switched out into the clear far too soon, while winner Bayrir drafted in behind horses for much longer. Bayrir has obviously been productive since that event, convincingly annexing the GI Secretariat in front of Summer Front and finishing second in the G2 Prix Niel back in France. He was a late supplement into Sunday's Arc and is a bit intriguing in there. Additionally, and less apparent to American bettors, Eugene Adam third-place finisher Fractional has won twice since, including taking a Group 3 at Deauville last time; and fourth-place finisher Starboard scored in the G3 Prix du Prince d'Orange at Longchamp Sept. 22. I also like that Cogito's adding blinkers--trainer Brian Meehan was adding the hood for Red Rocks when he took the 2008 GI Man o' War S. and for Dangerous Midge when he upset the 2010 GI Breeders' Cup Turf.

KEE R8 - GI Breeders' Futurity S. - He's Had Enough's debut was similar to Pure Indy's. Unveiled going 6 1/2 panels at Del Mar Aug. 12, the grey overcame a very slow pace to get up from last to first and earn his diploma over a well-bet frontrunner. That visually impressive effort earned him 7-2 favoritism in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf S. Sept. 5, but the Reddam colorbearer settled for a close-up sixth despite some trouble. In last early behind a pace that looks very hot on paper, but held up reasonably well, He's Had Enough was forced to make his move very wide into the stretch and was then herded out and interfered with by another foe in the lane. He was never really able to get his feet under him due to all the interference, but still earned the fastest final quarter in the field. Runner-up Power Broker returned to take the GI FrontRunner S. last Saturday. There appears to be plenty of pace signed on here to set up He's Had Enough's late kick, and I like the switch back to Polytrack and the addition of blinkers. The distance should also be right up his alley--he's by Tapit out of a stakes-winning Dixieland Band mare who also dropped recent GI Joe Hirsch third-place finisher Kindergarden Kid. His second dam's a MGSW who produced the useful European runner Bertolini, and his third dam is Broodmare of the Year Courtly Dee. The 12-1 morning line quote might be a bit high, but anything over 6-1 is enticing. 

Sophomore Spotlight: Belmont Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

The Belmont is a very quirky race that rarely yields a particularly formful result. In the last 10 runnings of the "Test of the Champion," the winner has paid, on average, more than $38. But, with that in mind, and my usual contrarian instincts temporarily kept at bay, I'm going to do the unthinkable--pick. . . the. . . favorite. With Alternation puzzlingly skipping the race that suited him so well, I've got no choice. I'll be shopping around for some prices underneath, and I'll still play other runners on top in certain bets, but I think Animal Kingdom is a very likely winner at a short price. See below for my detailed take on every Belmont entrant.

#9 Animal Kingdom - For those who didn't believe after his decisive win in the Derby, the chestnut turned in a very similar performance in the Preakness--pairing up 103 Beyer Speed Figures. The difference in winning and coming up a close second (in addition to Shackleford's gutsy performance) was probably the shorter distance and how far back Animal Kingdom was early. His 32 early Moss Pace Figure was 26 points slower than the equivalent figure he earned in the Derby, which was more in line with previous efforts, so it's very likely that Animal Kingdom can and will be closer early on Saturday--especially if he breaks a little more alertly. Animal Kingdom's stamina-laden pedigree has been well-documented, so distance the is of no concern. The biggest question mark for Animal Kingdom is how he's doing coming off two big races in a short time period, but a fast and very visually impressive work Monday morning should put those worries quickly to bed.

#7 Monzon - Since I picked the chalk on top, I can't help but go longshot hunting with my second choice. I was high on Monzon coming into the Peter Pan because of his very impressive and subsequently validated win in the Count Fleet S. over the winter at Aqueduct, but he checked in a disappointing sixth. He was very far out of it early behind a neutral pace and seemed to be putting in a threatening move at the top of the lane, but sort of flattened late. A glance at the come-home times in the Peter Pan shows that, after the winner Alternation (:12.30), runner-up Adios Charlie (:12.68) and Monzon (:12.69) were moving much better late than the rest of the field. Monzon did less running early, obviously, but it's something at least mildly interesting to note. Trainer Ignacio Correas IV has run a limited number of horses in the U.S., so it is difficult to generate a sufficient sample size for determining if he does better first or second off the lay-off. Using DRF Formulator, I decided to include Correas' stats with first and second timers in my handicapping based on the principle that the techniques used to get a horse ready to win on debut are the same as getting a previously raced horse to win first off the bench. The modified stats are telling--Correas is 2/24 (8%) with his firsters and first off the lay-off runners, but he is 5/17 (29%) with his second timers and second off the lay-off types. The numbers still aren't perfect, but they're enough to be confident that Monzon will be better in his second start back off the bench. He's a classic "maybe horse”--not one to rely on by any means, but a runner who has enough sneaky positives to take a chance on and feature in bets. The "maybes" might turn out to be "NOs," but at 30-1, Monzon is the type of quirky horse that can juice up the exotics.

#6 Nehro - My Derby pick gave a good account of himself on the first Saturday in May, and while he was ridden slightly more aggressively than he should have been, his mild trip excuses don't come close to accounting for how easily Animal Kingdom beat him. His connections did the right thing to bypass the Preakness, and that freshness edge is not to be taken lightly, but his main rival does not appear any worse for wear, so there isn't much reason to expect Nehro to turn the tables. He's still very talented, can be up close if he needs to be and should have no problem with the distance, but something unforeseen--like a rough trip for the favorite--might be necessary for Nehro to find the winner's circle. I'll still use him prominently on all of my tickets, but I think that after a string of races where he was an overlay, he'll be slightly overbet this time.

#1 Master of Hounds - This European invader is a total “wise guy” horse, but he does offer some positives. Everyone could see that he was running on late in the Derby, but there's more to it than that. It has been all but proven by now that the inside part of the track on Derby weekend was the last place to be, but Master of  Hounds traveled on the inside for part of the early running of the Derby and was steered to the rail while he was turning it on the stretch. His final quarter of :24.13 was only slower than Animal Kingdom, Dialed In and (surprisingly) Twice the Appeal's. Stamina isn’t an issue pedigree-wise, but he'll have to prove he isn't over the top. Master of Hounds has only run twice this year, but he has been subjected to several long intercontinental trips. If he's 100%, he can make an impact.

#4 Santiva -  He was slow last year, but has progressed from two to three despite a fairly uneventful start to the year. His sixth-place finish in the Derby last time earned him a new Beyer top (95), and with good spacing between his races, it's likely he's ready for another step forward. A son of Giant's Causeway shouldn't have much trouble going this long, and while his dam is a half to the brilliant sprinter Safely Kept, Santiva's siblings have seemed to prefer routing. He can hit the board at a price.

#12 Shackleford - I'm a fan of his and had him high on my list in both the Derby and Preakness, but I think his pedigree will catch up with him here. Granted, he outperformed his breeding in that gutsy Preakness win, but he didn't give the appearance of wanting any more ground. His Derby run was underrated because of where on the track he did his running and misconceptions about the pace, but not enough to use him on top here. I fear him, especially considering the expected pace scenario, but think that there will be too many horses running late for him to hold off--even though he's more talented than almost all of them.

#10 Mucho Macho Man - As always, he's a threat to hit the board, but he'll be an underlay in the win pool. Despite a lofty reputation and more than $600,000 in the bank, he has only won twice. His backers have always pointed to his late foaling date and lanky frame as evidence that he's got room for improvement, but Mucho Macho Man has run just about the same race in his last seven outings. He's much more an exposed picture of consistency than the lightly raced, ready to explode type that he has been made out to be by many. Mucho Macho Man also has significant distance limitations pedigree-wise. He sports the field's lowest Tomlinson rating for the distance and his dam side pedigree is very sprint-oriented. His win odds on the board will probably be 1/3 of what they should be, but it's tough to toss him completely from second and third because of how consistent he is.

#5 Brilliant Speed - I didn't expect him to take to the dirt last time, and while he ran a credible seventh, it might have been more due to his stamina than his affinity for dirt. He probably simply outstayed others who were more distance challenged. He'll be overbet off of that misleading late run and because of his pedigree, and I'll stick with my original opinion that he's not a dirt horse.

#8 Prime Cut - His Beyer figures do not compare favorably with his competition, and he has come up in lower level races in his last two. His unraced dam is a half to useful sprinter Disco Rico and his well-bred sire Bernstein was purely a sprinter, so it's not as if the distance will help move him up to the level of his rivals.

#2 Stay Thirsty - He hasn't progressed at all since his debut last July, and his three off-the-board finishes came the three times he was stepped into Grade I company. It's a bit of a fallacy to think more distance is going to be positive for him--he's more of a precocious middle distance horse than a true router.

#3 Ruler On Ice - Nothing about his form makes him look competitive here, and his pedigree is not well-suited to more ground. He was beaten by Concealed Identity in the Tesio last time, and that runner was outclassed in the Preakness. With the addition of blinkers and some quick recent works, he might add to the early pace, but he won't be around late.

#11 Isn't He Perfect - He should get the distance, but not nearly fast enough to be a contender.

I'll use my top four--to varying degrees--in the Pick 4, and my main vertical wager will be a trifecta key of Animal Kingdom over Monzon, Nehro, Master of Hounds and Santiva. I'll also probably be forced to make a small win bet on Monzon because of what his price will be.

Belmont Buzz...

--Steve Sherack

Belmont Park’s Spring Meeting kicks into high gear this week, led by the much-anticipated return of the popular 2010 GI Haskell runner-up and Long Branch S. hero Trappe Shot (Tapit) in the $60,000 Waldoboro S.

The Mill House colorbearer was given a vacation following a lackluster ninth as the lukewarm favorite in the GI Travers S. back in August (TDN APB). The "TDN Rising Star," also a sharp winner of a salty allowance on last year’s GI Belmont S. undercard, has put together a solid worktab dating back to early February for his seasonal bow. Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Johnny Velazquez replaces Alan Garcia, who was aboard in all seven of Trappe Shot’s previous starts.

Wednesday’s six-furlong feature, slated to go off at 4:45 p.m. EDT, will be far from a walkover for the 8-5 morning-line favorite. It has also attracted a pair of trainer Rick Dutrow’s big guns--D’ Funnybone (D’wildcat) and This Ones for Phil (Untuttable).

The former, two-for-two over Big Sandy with wins in the 2009 GII Futurity S. and 2010 GII Woody Stephens S., kicked off his 4-year-old campaign with a disappointing fourth in Gulfstream’s Sunshine State S. for Florida-breds Apr. 9. The handsome chestnut, a late scratch from last year's Fasig-Tipton November sale, appears to have bounced back well from his latest effort, firing a five-furlong bullet in 1:00 3/5 at the Big A May 6.

This Ones for Phil faced the starter only twice last term, gamely securing the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream in January with a 108 Beyer, and tiring to finish eighth in the GII Gulfstream Park H. in March. The 5-year-old has always run well fresh throughout his career.


Belmont Park
Sherackatthetrack photo


Rule by Night (Malibu Moon) adds fuel to the fire in this competitive sprint. A strong second in the Gallant Bob S. at Philly Park in October, he enters off a breakthrough 9 1/4-length win in Aqueduct’s Groovy S. Nov. 21, good for a career-best 108 Beyer.

Thursday’s nine-race card features the $60,000 Ziggy’s Boy S. for sophomores going seven furlongs on the main track. Glickman (Trippi), a visually impressive first out winner on the GI Wood Memorial undercard (Ready for the Big Show--TDN Staff Blog), takes on four experienced rivals in his stakes debut.

Arch Traveler (Sky Mesa) had a two-race winning streak snapped at Gulfstream when sixth in the GI Florida Derby; The Fed Eased (Montbrook) cuts back in distance following a respectable third in the GIII Illinois Derby; and Free Entry (Tale of the Cat) resurfaces following an off-the-board finish as one of the choices in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Rocking Out (Include), fourth in Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)’s Timely Writer S., seeks his second straight win off a solid effort in an optional claimer in Hallandale.

The Ziggy’s Boy, slated as the day’s third race, goes off at 2:04 p.m. EDT.

The weekday action continues at Belmont Friday with "TDN Rising Star" Ripples n’ Waves (Malibu Moon)’s first test against winners in a $75,000 optional claimer (race seven, post time: 4:12 p.m. EDT). The L. Riley Mangum homebred scored by an eye-catching 6 1/4 lengths in an Aqueduct maiden special weight going a mile Apr. 15 (TDN Video), earning a 91 Beyer. The extra sixteenth of a mile should be no problem with a repeat performance of his second career start. The very promising Ripples n’ Waves was also nominated for Saturday’s GII Peter Pan S. at Belmont.

With a forecast calling for clear skies and temperatures in the 70s throughout the week, what better place to be than at beautiful Belmont Park.