The Case Against 'Chrome': Handicapping the Preakness

--Brian DiDonato



Victor Espinoza celebrates aboard California Chrome
Horsephotos

   When a lower-priced horse wins the Derby, we tend to think that all the questions leading up to the first Saturday in May have been answered. Take last year, for example. Orb seemed off his Florida form like he could be the best 3-year-old in that crop, so when he won the Derby by a convincing margin, the result appeared to be definitive. Most (myself included) dismissed, or at least minimized, the fact that the Derby was run over a sloppy surface and featured a complete meltdown pace. Orb had been anointed the latest sure-thing Triple Crown winner (proud to say I don’t think I went quite that far). Then Derby also-rans Oxbow (15-1), Palice Malice (13-1) and Will Take Charge (9-1) took the Preakness, Belmont and Travers, respectively, with Orb going down at low odds each time, and things looked a whole lot less cut-and-dry.
   There is the distinct possibility of a similar phenomenon occurring this year. Yes, California Chrome had the best form coming into the Derby, and as he pulled away from his competition I thought to myself, “Okay, he’s just too good for these horses.” But then the timer didn’t stop until 2:03.66, and everyone’s figures came back slow. And then I watched the replay a few times and realized that the favorite enjoyed a dream trip in a race that was full of rough ones.
   Nothing about the Derby necessarily proved that California Chrome isn’t a stand-out in this bunch, but the same reasons that were there to play against him at 5-2 in the Derby are still there and now he's going to be 3-5 off of two weeks' rest. The pace that never materialized over a speed-friendly surface at Churchill looks like a sure thing here, and that could certainly hurt the chalk’s chances. If he wins again, you tip your cap (and triple down in the Belmont), but I’m not ready to anoint California Chrome just yet--and I'm certainly not taking 3-5 on anybody ever.
   See below for my horse-by-horse analysis.

1. Dynamic Impact - 12-1 - Certainly took a while to break out of the maiden ranks, but as soon as he did, he went on to upset the GIII Illinois Derby. It’s hard to know how much credit to give him for that effort, though. He sat a pretty dream trip just off of heavily favored Midnight Hawk, and may have benefitted more from that one’s distance and mental limitations than anything else. Still, he’s by Tiznow out of a Smart Strike mare who, though she was a sprinter, hails from a stout enough family. So the distance looks up his alley, and he could be moving in the right direction. Might just sit the trip--not completely out of this.

2. General a Rod - 15-1 - Reminds me of last year’s Preakness runner-up Itsmyluckyday, but with maybe a less advantageous style in relation to the projected pace--unless he comes from farther back like he did in the Derby, which you’d think his connections might try. His Derby trip was definitely less than perfect. He was really running late, and would have likely been maybe fifth or sixth if not for running into traffic. Still came home fourth-fastest of anyone in the race (:26.26)--behind only California Chrome (:26.21), Commanding Curve (:25.57) and Ride On Curlin (:25.73)--so there’s reason to believe he can be an effective off-the-pace threat. He’s run fast before, and is definitely one to use.

3. California Chrome - 3-5 - Already touched on him above. . . Going to try to get him out of the exacta, but certainly won’t be surprised if he wins. Then I’ll just liquidate my assets and take the Tonalist/Danza Belmont exacta box for the max.

4. Ring Weekend - 20-1 - Seems very much up against it. His front-running upset win of the GII Tampa Bay Derby seems more like the exception than the rule, especially after a disappointing showing in the Calder Derby. Then he had to miss the Derby due to a fever. Can’t envision a scenario in which he can win--his best game is using his speed, and that’s just not going to work here.

5. Bayern - 10-1 - Set a super slow pace when he won that one-mile Santa Anita allowance by 15, and regressed when third as the chalk in the nine-panel GI Arkansas Derby. Hard to love his stretch antics that led to a disqualification when dropped back to a mile for the GIII Derby Trial. Likely pace casualty who doesn’t want to go this far.

6. Ria Antonia - 30-1 - Next. . .

7. Kid Cruz - 20-1 - This is who I’m going with, though it's starting to look like he's a bit of a wise guy horse. He still hasn’t run fast enough on speed figures, but his style fits the way this race has to be run if we’re going to beat California Chrome and he’s been very visually impressive since Linda Rice claimed him for $50,000 in November. He came from out of the clouds to take Laurel’s Private Terms S. Mar. 8 over 1 1/8 miles, and looked like a legitimate GI Wood Memorial threat before having to miss that race due to a sore shoulder. Seemingly no worse for wear, the Linda Rice trainee flew home again into a slow pace to take this venue’s Federico Tesio S. last time Apr. 19. A win over the strip can’t be a bad thing, and the distance shouldn’t be a problem. He still needs to prove he’s good enough, but he has upside and should get the right set-up.

8. Social Inclusion - 5-1 - Possibly the toughest read in the race. He’s shown just about as much talent as any 3-year-old this year, and it’s easy to excuse his tough-trip third in the Wood--he was wide, pressing a hot pace and still looked like the winner until very late. But isn’t he going to run into the same problem here? His connections seem to think his best chance is to try and run these horses off their feet--and maybe they’re right or at least they’re aware that Social Inclusion doesn’t want to rate--but they’re going to have to hope that all the other speeds decide not to send for that strategy to work. Not tossing out completely, as I think it’s hard to deny his talent and could see him winning a race like the Haskell later on this year, but fear he might be up against it again this time.

9. Pablo Del Monte - 20-1 - Seems very likely that he’s a better synthetic horse and doesn’t seem to want this trip. Adds more fuel to the fire.

10. Ride On Curlin - 10-1 - Somewhere between on the lead and dead last early is where he wants to be, but anyone who was surprised with Borel taking him back to last in the Derby just doesn’t pay attention. It may have actually been his best bet considering the potential there for a collapse, but the pace just didn’t quite materialize and he still ran on well to be seventh. He finished faster (:25.73) than everyone but Commanding Curve, and just needs to work out a trip one of these days.

The play: Win bet on Kid Cruz and an exacta box of Kid Cruz, Ride On Curlin, General a Rod and Dynamic Impact. Will also play a Social Inclusion over Kid Cruz exacta saver and will probably use the four from the exacta box, plus Social Inclusion and California Chrome in the pick four if I decide to play one on a somewhat uninspiring undercard.

Kid Cruz draws off in Pimlico's Federico Tesio S.
Jim McCue, Maryland Jockey Club

Black-Eyed Susan Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

PIM 7 - Rollicking S. - It’s like the Wesley Ward Futurity. . . The 2-year-old specialist has half of the eight runners entered in this very early juvenile stakes race (maybe he’ll scratch one or two? I hope not.) One of the most important things I look for in these races is the length of time between now and the horse’s debut or most recent start. These very precocious babies are usually fully cranked to win first out, and the more time they have to recover after their debut, the better. Debt Ceiling, for example, the 5-1 winner of this event last year, debuted so early (Mar. 30) that he already had a lay-off line coming into this race. The two runners I like happen to be tied for most time off between starts, and are also both trained by Ward. Hootenanny assumed the role of the “other Ward” when he was let go at nearly 5-1 for his Apr. 17 Keeneland unveiling, only to best 2-1 stablemate and return runner-up Circle the World by an easy 4 1/4 lengths. I thought he did it the right way, and he looks like he can switch off and rate--something he’ll be well-served to do here. Hootenanny also had a very sparing worktab coming into his debut, so perhaps he’ll move forward off that effort. The other Ward horse I’m interested in--and the one I’ll be betting to win--is Bessie’s Boy. Shipped here for his debut Apr. 17, the 3-5 favorite chased the pace well out into the track and ultimately prevailed over the re-opposing pair of Pret Say Eye and Governmentshutdown. The latter returned to romp here May 3 with a field’s-best 82 Beyer, which flatters Bessie’s Boy, but makes me very dubious of Governmentshutdown’s likelihood of replicating his best while making his third start in a month. I also like that Bessie’s Boy received a relatively low 51 Beyer for his debut, as early juvenile figures reveal very little in terms of actual ability, and lower figures often mean more is left in the tank while inflating the odds (Beyers, of course, are not produced for Keeneland’s 4 1/2-furlong races because of the configuration used, but I’m pretty sure the Keeneland winners here would have earned higher than a 51 on the Beyer scale.) Play: Win on #5 Bessie’s Boy (10-1), exacta box with #6 Hootenanny (5-2).


Joint Return                                            Joe Labozzetta

PIM 10 - GII Black-Eyed Susan S. - She may be too slow, both in terms of pace and final time, but I have to give Joint Return one more shot to handle tougher competition. The John Servis trainee first caught my eye with two wins at Parx in which she overcame very slow paces to blow by her competition with ease. Let go at 7-1 for Aqueduct’s Feb. 1 Busher S., the dark bay again mounted a head-turning bid, inhaling her competition in last-to-first fashion while covering plenty of ground (albeit against a pretty average group). I was sold on Joint Return as a legitimate Oaks contender at that point, but she never lifted a hoof when fifth in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks Mar. 29. I am willing to excuse that effort, however, as we’ve seen plenty of recent examples of closers simply not taking to the speed-friendly Gulfstream main track this year. Dropped in class for the Apr. 12 Calder Oaks, Joint Return was back to her old self, looking like she might be eased early before cruising by every one of her foes like they were standing still. While the first quarter of that race was very quick, the frontrunners really slowed it down after that and still ran second and third, so it seems Joint Return’s performance was reasonably legitimate (again, not the strongest competition). She earned a career-best 76 Beyer, which is by no means quick, but there really aren’t any fast fillies in this race (average Beyer top for the rest of the field is just 81.2), and as a deep closer, she’s never going to really run a fast number unless she gets a hot pace. I’m not expecting exceedingly quick early splits here, but Joint Return shouldn’t be at a disadvantage and she still has every right to be much better than she looks on paper. Play: Win on #1 Joint Return (15-1), also using #2 America (8-1), #8 Sloane Square (5-1) and #9 Fortune Pearl (12-1) in pick threes.

PIM 11 - Miss Preakness S.  - Here I go right back to a slow-looking John Servis runner. Stormy Novel is basically Joint Return with the added positive of a cut-back in distance. She was very visually impressive taking a Parx allowance Feb. 2 at 1-9 odds, but faded to sixth after setting the pace in Turfway’s GIII Bourbonette Oaks over a mile of Polytrack. Being by Bernardini, one might think she should prefer going long, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest that she’s back at a more suitable distance. Her speedy, but 0-for-2 dam is by Forestry, and also produced Stormy Novel’s full-sister Bridgehampton, who was second in the GIII Victory Ride S. last June and who has never been sent beyond six panels in five career tries. If the morning line on her holds, 8-1 shot Miss Behaviour will also be a significant overlay. Her dirt sprint form was extremely solid at two, and she would have beaten Miss Preakness entrant Tea Time in last October’s Sharp Cat S. if that filly hand’t been allowed to set a laughably glacial pace. Miss Behaviour’s two most recent races came going a mile and over turf, respectively, but this is her game and I look for her to run big. I’ll also toss in 2-for-2 Our Lesmis, whose win in the mud last time is a positive considering the very wet forecast for Friday. Chalkier horses Jojo Warrior and Tepin should also be respected, but I’ll only use them as back-ups. Play: Win on #1 Stormy Novel (15-1), exacta box with #4 Miss Behaviour (8-1) and #5 Our Lesmis (5-1). Using those three in pick threes as well as #8 Jojo Warrior (5-2) and #6 Tepin (9-2) as back-ups.

PIM 12 - GIII Pimlico Special H. - I don’t have any particularly strong opinions here, but it’s nice to see this once-prestigious race attract a competitive field. Morning-line choice Revolutionary feels like he should be pretty tough if he shows up with his best--he had that traffic trouble thanks to Will Take Charge in the GII Oaklawn H., and more ground plus a potentially wet track both play to his advantage. If there’s an upset, I think it’ll come from either Revolutionary’s stablemate Golden Lad or Prayer for Relief. Golden Lad was clearly already beaten when he was bumped in Arkansas, but he seemed washed out and maybe not on his game before that race. He was on an upward trajectory before that, and earned a career-best 102 Beyer two back over a wet/fast track in Oaklawn’s GIII Razorback H. Mar. 15. I’ve never been a big fan of Prayer for Relief, to be honest, but he does have some fast races that stack up well with these and I didn’t like the ride he got last time in his first start switching from Steve Asmussen to Dale Romans. He was left out unnecessarily wide early, dropped back like he was done on the turn, but re-rallied in the stretch to finish only 2 1/4 lengths behind Revolutionary. If Oaklawn had Trakus, I would think the ground loss adjustments would put Prayer for Relief ahead of Revolutionary. If he goes off at or above his 12-1 morning line, he’s probably worth a small win bet. Play: Odds-dependent win bet on #8 Prayer for Relief (12-1). Using him, #6 Revolutionary (5-2) and #4 Golden Lad (6-1) in pick threes.

Revisiting the Past Via the 2013 Triple Crown

--Christina Bossinakis

   Only moments after this year’s Belmont Stakes, trainer Todd Pletcher admitted it was an emotional win for him, largely because of his history with Dogwood Stables, the partnership that campaigns winner Palace Malice. Quite unexpectedly, however, it turned out to be a pretty poignant moment for me as well. Over the last 13 years, I have plied my trade as a turf writer, reporter and editor, and in more recent times, a TV host and analyst, but despite that fact, I consider myself first and foremost a racing fan. And in a poetic coincidence, ties to the first three finishers in the Belmont offered a vivid reminder as to why I fell in love with the sport to begin with.
   The very first Triple Crown race I ever watched live on TV was the 1988 Kentucky Derby, which was won by the roan filly, the Amazon, Winning Colors. Most will recall that the giant filly was the first Derby winner for her trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, as well as her jockey, Gary Stevens. I remember all too well how elated I was with her victory, not only because she was a girl beating the boys (I’m always up for that!), but also because I was a bourgeoning Lukas fan. Whether it was the fancy suits, the platinum tongue (‘silver tongue’ just doesn’t cut it with Wayne) or his rampant success, I was a believer. And quite honestly, I have been ever since.

Lukas & Winning Colors

   Fast forward to this year’s Preakness Stakes, and who should be standing on the winner’s podium but Lukas and Stevens, this time courtesy of the exploits of Oxbow, owned by Calumet Farm. Now owned by Brad Kelley, historic Calumet was also instrumental in stoking my passion for racing during an admittedly impressionable time. In 1990, Calumet campaigned a handsome chestnut by Alydar named Criminal Type, and he was trained by, you guessed it, D. Wayne Lukas. He won four Grade I’s and closed out the season with the Horse of the Year title to boot. I was a hardcore fan by then. In an interesting coincidence (well, maybe not such a coincidence), Lukas had a young foreman-turned-assistant working for him that would go on to give his teacher, not to mention the rest of the training colony, a serious run for their money. Todd Pletcher, who was with Lukas through 1995, might not have been an instant hit, but he showed very early on that he would be a force to be reckoned with down the line. Unapologetically a fan to this day, ‘The Man’ certainly lived up to the moniker I trumpeted (quite enthusiastically, in fact) each time he visited the winner’s circle (no doubt confirmed by any TDNer present circa 2002).

Todd Pletcher (shades) & Criminal Type

   This year’s Triple Crown also represented another significant tie to my passage in racing. I had the pleasure of observing Orb all winter long at Gulfstream in Florida and I was genuinely thrilled to see him win the Derby in the black silks and cherry cap of the Phipps’ and for trainer Shug McGaughey. Not too long ago, I found myself looking back to determine when Shug might have won his last prior Eclipse Award as champion trainer. I have to admit, I was initially a little surprised when I realized that he earned the title in 1988. ‘How could that be?’ I thought. ‘That’s the year Winning Colors won the Derby. Surely, Lukas would have won it that season?’ But very quickly I realized that Winning Colors lost the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in her final race of that season, and more significantly, the mare she lost to was none other than the remarkable Personal Ensign, owned by Ogden Phipps and trained by Shug. Also in 1988, that owner/trainer partnership campaigned champion juvenile colt, another son of Alydar (Yes, I had a thing for Alydar) named Easy Goer.
   By the time the 1989 racing season rolled around, I couldn’t get enough of racing. I read about it, I watched it on TV and I spent literally hundreds of hours poring over stallion registers and a wide array of other racing literature. And I was also positively captivated by Easy Goer. He was the cat’s meow. Heading into that year’s Derby, I couldn’t help but think that we were looking at another Triple Crown winner. Apparently, a racy, near-black colt from California had other ideas. While Sunday Silence would also go on and beat Easy Goer in the Preakness (Oh what heartbreak!), the latter would come back and win the Belmont in ultra-impressive style. That win would propel Easy Goer to victories in the Travers, Whitney, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup. To this day, his loss to Sunday Silence in the Breeders’ Cup Classic ranks among my most heart wrenching moments in racing. On a brighter note, I did have the opportunity to see Easy Goer at Claiborne Farm in 1991 prior to his untimely death. A most remarkable racehorse.

Easy Goer winning the 1989 Belmont

   With the Triple Crown solidly behind us, critics have argued that this year’s 3-year-old crop was average at best and that this season’s Classics simply weren’t fast enough nor impressive enough to stand up in the annals of history. As a serious student of the sport over the past quarter of a century, I can honestly say that the racing community, myself included, have all too often underestimated particular horses and foal crops (while in the moment), and have just as frequently overestimated others. But time reveals all, and only time will tell whether any of this year’s sophomores will be remembered as exceptional. One thing is certain, however, the connections behind each of this year’s Classic winners have indeed withstood the test of time and have amassed records that will, in a grander historical sense, stamp them as not only exceptional, but quite likely, transcendent. And if the passion, commitment and dedication they have poured into the game over the past 25 years is any indication, I think it’s a very good bet that we’ll see all of them back for years to come.

Preakness Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GI Preakness S. (by post position):

Orb - Nothing particularly interesting to say about him. He was a very deserving winner of the Derby and clearly best that day (though I suppose you could make the argument that Normandy Invasion might have cut it close with a more patient ride). He did get an extremely fast pace to close into, however, and any result that occurs over slop has to be taken with a little bit of skepticism. Derby winners that are closers tend to be more vulnerable in the Preakness, but he should get the right set-up again and may just be better than these. It’s not like you can bet him to win, but you obviously can’t toss him either.

Goldencents - Thought he’d find the Derby pace too hot and the distance too far and he did. Slightly less ground to cover here, but still enough company up front. Not using, and hoping he gets play thanks to his connections.

Titletown Five - Loved him in the Derby Trial because he was cutting back to a mile, but he could only manage a fourth-place finish. More ground doesn’t seem like it will be to the speedball's advantage. One thing puzzles me, though: the presence of Julien Leparoux in the saddle. He’s not exactly a speed rider, so maybe they’re planning on taking back? Still can’t include on top, but he’s a tricky read for that reason.

Departing - Guessing he probably gets bet down to second choice as the fresh face with a lot of upside. Could still be any kind, so I’ll use him defensively in some wagers, but he’s got some knocks. He beat absolutely nothing in the Texas Heritage S. and Illinois Derby (granted, he was pretty wide in the latter), and was clearly third-best in the Louisiana Derby. Plus the 97 Beyer he earned at Sam Houston--the only figure that makes him competitive--feels a bit suspect when you look at what the next three runners in the field earned before that race and after. Underlaid, but definitely not out of the question.

Mylute - Please, please, please let this horse be 5-1 come Saturday. No disrespect to Rosie, who’s a fine rider, but the way she gets bet in these big races is crazy. I’m just not seeing it with this horse and think his fifth in the Derby was a bit of a clunk up.

Oxbow - Ran an extremely brave race to be sixth in the Derby--was the best finisher of the pace horses. But can’t really envision him taking a step in the right direction form-wise here. This will be his 10th race since October with no breaks--could probably use a freshening.

Will Take Charge - Was probably the toughest read for me going into the Derby, and ended up featuring him a bit more in bets than my cheat sheet opinions might have suggested (at the expense of having more stuff with Golden Soul, of course). I wanted more to go on with him before the Derby, and didn’t get it when Verrazano dropped anchor right in front of him. He was moving right with the winner when he was stopped, but who knows if he would have sustained that bid or flattened? In danger of being a wise guy horse off that obvious trouble, but hopefully the public finds others to bet. Will be one of my main uses because I still think he’s somewhat unexposed.

Govenor Charlie - Have never been a fan--thought the Sunland Derby was very weak and don’t like that he missed the big one because of a minor setback. Not interested.

Itsmyluckyday - Ok, I’ll bite one more time. Grew increasingly high on him leading up to the Derby, and clearly wasn’t alone as he was bet down to an underlaid 9-1. While a previous win in the slop made me unconcerned with the track condition, it’s pretty clear that Itsmyluckyday hated the surface two weeks ago--he never looked comfortable and was spinning his wheels for much of the race. Think the way to beat Orb will be to get the jump on him, and this one has best running style to do so. 8-1 or better is good enough for me to take the plunge one more time because I still the think the case for him in the Derby is valid if it was merely a matter of the slop last time.

Undercard Thoughts:

Race 4 - Rollicking S. - Wow--a 2-year-old stakes race already? While Wesley Ward is exceptionally good with his debuting juveniles, they’re usually very good bet-againsts after they win first out. According to DRF Formulator, Ward’s just 2-for-20 with a $1.25 in 2-year-old stakes races coming off debut wins over the past five seasons. With two Ward runners as the top two morning-line choices here, there should be plenty of value to be had. I really, really like Debt Ceiling (8-1) at a nice price. I thought his winning Laurel debut was very visually impressive and am glad that he earned a low Beyer Speed Figure--early juvenile figures tend to be irrelevant. I also think he has a huge edge considering he’s been off since Mar. 30. Debut winners often regress second out, and in a field full of them, it can’t hurt to have the horse who has had the most time to recuperate. His worktab since that effort jumps off the page, and his dam was a precocious speedball who became a stakes winner at three. My other anti-Ward use is Knit One Purr Too (15-1)--she also looked good to me visually in her debut and will be ignored.

Race 6 - Chick Lang S. - When I first scanned the entries for this card I thought to myself that Zee Bros would probably be extremely tough cutting back to six furlongs, but now I’m not so sure--Bobcat Jim and Brave Dave are both also insanely fast early and I think this race has meltdown written all over it (feel like I’m starting to sound like a broken record lately, but the pace figures don’t lie). Turnbacks like Res Judicata (10-1) are my go-to plays in spots like these. I think he moved too soon in the Pennsylvania Nursery S. in December and has been flattered by the subsequent exploits of winner Officer Alex and third-place finisher Siete de Oros. He probably needed the race and didn’t completely embarrass himself anyway in the GIII Swale, and seemed to find the mile trip just a bit too long last time when second in the Fit to Fight (note the late lead change). He did cycle back up to his Beyer top at the Big A, and with a pair of bullet works leading up to this, I think he’s poised to turn in a career best. I’ll be more than happy with 8-1 or better, and will be making a sizeable 4 with 7,8,9 exacta box as well.

Race 7 - James W. Murphy S. - I’ve always thought Notacatbutallama’s form was dressed up, so any race where he’s going to be short will offer value (9-5 on the morning line seems a bit low, though). There are two really interesting pedigree plays here in a wide-open affair. Wry Me (20-1) is by Sharp Humor--not a particularly strong turf influence--but his dam was by all-grass Silver Hawk and she dropped a full-sister to Wry Me who was mostly a grass performer. He only has one race on dirt that fits (his very nice Mar. 16 optional claiming win), but don’t be surprised if he pulls off the shocker on the surface switch. The D. Wayne putting a grass horse back on grass angle worked with Skyring at 8.8-1 in this event last year, and “The Coach” has another son of English Channel in Red Wings (10-1) this time. His dirt form isn’t so bad, but he’s always figured to prefer the sod. English Channels’s turf exploits are well documented, and dam Heavenly Ransom (Red Ransom) was five-for-six in her career--all on turf--including a win in the 2006 GIII Wilshire H. over MGISW Ticker Tape.

Race 9 - GIII Gallorette H. - Won’t be letting many (if any) horses knock me out of the first leg of the pick four here (except for maybe perpetual underlay Pianist). I really thought Hard Not to Like (10-1) was going to have a big year after taking the GIII Marshua’s River in her first start for Michael Matz in January, but she’s been a disappointment in her last two. Still, that last winning performance stacks up well with this group, and she figures to sit a perfect trip right behind a fairly moderate pace. Can she rediscover her best form? We’ll see.

Race 10 - GIII Maryland Sprint H. - That was a pretty big race Sage Valley ran when we last saw him in November, but I’m not sure I buy it completely and now he has a lay-off and outside draw to contend with. This is another spread race for me, with Candyman E (6-1), Poseidon’s Warrior (10-1) and Hardened Wildcat (4-1) interesting me the most.

Race 11 - GII Dixie S. - Yet another excellent and competitive race--I didn’t realize how good of a card this was until really digging into it. You’ve got to be pretty forgiving to get to him, but how about Forte Dei Marmi (15-1)? His performance in the Dixie here a year ago was pretty solid (covered his final furlong in a super-fast :10.74) against what might have been a stronger group, and his subsequent races at Woodbine, though at longer distances, might be better than anything else this field has done. His last three have been absolutely abysmal--he was vanned off in the Elkhorn last time--so why is the 7-year-old being shipped down here? Trainer Roger Attfield isn’t one to simply run a horse for the sake of running, and the Hall of Famer boasts a win and two third-place finishes from the five times he’s shipped runners down from Canada to compete on this card over the past five years. With a couple of quick works over the Woodbine Poly since the Keeneland debacle, maybe the real Forte Dei Marmi shows up?

Black-Eyed Susan Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GII Black-Eyed Susan S. - Both favorites here look somewhat vulnerable, especially

Fiftyshadesofhay. Besides her one monster performance over a wet/fast surface when romping in the Santa Ysabel (the pace she was a part of was extremely quick), she seems a bit exposed. She has been facing Beholder, who ran much better than most of us expected in the Oaks, but is clearly not in that one's league. An abundance of speed here won't do her any favors--especially with the addition of blinkers--and my biggest concern is that trainer Bob Baffert opted to bypass the Oaks after Fiftyshadesofhay didn't ship well. Even if she's reportedly doing better now, that's a major negative for a shorter-priced horse.
   My knocks on Emollient are a little weaker, and I'll use her defensively in the pick four because she figures to be taken back off the pace this time. But she's been somewhat in and out in her career and her Ashland romp seemed to come out of nowhere. It was almost reminiscent of Dreaming of Julia's Gulfstream Park Oaks, where Emollient was 30 lengths back. Empire Makers absolutely love the Keeneland synthetic for whatever reason, so I wouldn't expect her to match that effort back on dirt. Also add to that the fact that Emollient was another who skipped the Oaks, and that fellow Mott/Juddmonte runner Close Hatches ran a total clunker in that spot, and I'd be less-than-enthused to take 9-5 on her.
   There are two horses who interest me and who I'll feature in pick threes and fours. I think Maracuya (8-1) might be the most talented runner in the race, and she has everything going for her except for pace dynamics. She beat a couple of next-out winners in her sprint debut at Gulfstream in early March, and set a very hot pace (+12 first quarter on the Moss Pace Figure scale) but kept going in a one-mile optional claimer later in the month. The horse she beat took the Calder Oaks in the slop next out with a 90 Beyer. Maracuya’s pedigree is extremely interesting and Pimlico-specific. Her sire Big Brown took the Preakness here, obviously, and her half-sister Payton d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) annexed the 2009 running of this race (Maybe it's misguided or a bit too specific to expect track preferences to be passed on, but I've seen what I think is that phenomenon in the past. If genetics determine the physical characteristics that decide a horse's preference for dirt or turf, why can't they be relevant here too?) With all that being said, Maracuya has "wise guy horse" written all over her and I doubt she'll go off at her 8-1 morning line. I also have no idea if she can rate at nine furlongs, so while I'll use her prominently, I can't bet her to win.
   I can, however, bet Marathon Lady (12-1) to win. Her maiden breaker in the Oaklawn slop three back was solid enough, and the runner-up is two-for-two since. Let go at 31-1 off that effort in the GIII Bourbonette Oaks over Turfway's Polytrack, the bay fell a nose short to Silsita in a spirited duel, earning a competitive 92 Beyer. There are two obvious reasons to question the quality of that race:

1. Silsita finished dead last in the Oaks. But she's clearly a turf/synthetic horse, so that doesn't mean much to me (Third-place finisher and GISW Pure Fun was also a non-factor in the Oaks, but her form is inconclusive).

2. The Beyer for that race seems a bit high compared to what Silsita and Marathon Lady have earned in other races. That's valid, but a closer look at the figure history of also-rans allays any concern that it's an inaccurate number.

   Marathon Lady was third last time behind Oaks pace casualty Rose to Gold and Black-Eyed Susan participant Manuka Honey, but that was a complete merry-go-round affair, where the top three travelled that way all the way around. Marathon Lady didn't appear to love the sloppy conditions (despite having won on a similar strip two starts earlier) and was widest throughout, so I'm willing to give her a pass and be grateful for the additional value she'll offer thanks to that trip. Her sire Graeme Hall won the GII Arkansas Derby and GII Jim Dandy at 1 1/8 miles and she's from a South American female family, which usually means stoutness, so more distance should suit.

Undercard Thoughts:

Race 2 - MSW, 1 1/16mT - Queen Jezebel (15-1) was a decent third in an Apr. 13 off-the-turfer here in her first start for Jose Corrales after a non-effort last summer at Del Mar for John Shirreffs. With her pedigree, I’m surprised she could even stand up on dirt--she’s by Motivator (GB) out of a Paris House (GB) mare who was MSW and GSP in England and GSP in Ireland, all in sprints. Queen Jezebel almost certainly has to be a better grass horse, and she doesn’t need to improve too much to match up very favorably with these. Adding to her appeal is Corrales’s exceptional stats second off the bench. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five seasons, he’s 10-for-21 (48%) with a $3.43 ROI second off the lay-off with maidens (29% with a $2.64 ROI second off the bench overall). I’d also be sure to use Jessica C (10-1). She was backed down to favoritism in a field of 12 going five panels here Apr. 14, but only got going late to finish a close sixth. Her half-brother Proceed Bee took the GIII Hawthorne Derby over nine furlongs of turf and her second dam annexed the Diana at the same trip, so more real estate on grass should be right up her alley.

Race 8 - Miss Preakness S. - This is another race that has a complete overload of early speed on paper, and it’s always tough determining who will find themselves back farther than usual just by default. Blueeyesintherein ran a decent race two weeks ago to be fifth in the GIII Eight Belles as be part of a quick pace, but she’s definitely shown the ability to come from off it and I’m not sure why she was so close last time. I’ll use her and think she’ll be somewhat tough, but the short turnaround may be ambitious (have a feeling that there’s a chance she scratches) and I’d like to find some better value in this full field. Lighthouse Bay (8-1) rates a longshot chance. She broke her maiden in front of a trio of next-out winners at Belmont in October before taking a roughly run stakes race at Laurel a month later (That video replay appears to be unavailable for some reason, and I hate flying blind, but the most important thing about her trip that day to me was that she wasn’t on the lead, and I can glean that from the chart). The chestnut resurfaced in a Gulfstream optional claimer Apr. 4, and set an opening split in :21.81 that was good for a 101 Moss Pace Figure, 15 points above par. She faded to fifth and earned a 73 Beyer, but can clearly much better with a less demanding trip. I’m guessing she’s capable of something in the high 80’s, which puts her right there if she bides her time early.

Race 9 - Jim McKay Turf Sprint - I’m writing this on Tuesday hoping that Bruce Brown opts to send Spring to the Sky (10-1) here and run Night Officer Thursday at Belmont. Both are cross-entered in the same spots, and while Spring to the Sky is a shorter price on the morning line at Belmont, from a tactical standpoint, he makes a lot more sense at Pimlico, while his late-running stablemate figures to get more pace at Belmont (Update: My hopes were answered). Spring to the Sky displayed some serious early speed in his first three races on dirt, but was subsequently stretched out and put on the lawn for three stakes tries. He didn’t embarrass himself, finishing third in Saratoga’s Duluth S. behind Summer Front. He also developed the ability to rate slightly, which came in handy when facing the equally fast Sum of the Parts in Belmont’s grassy six-furlong Groovy S. in September. Spring to the Sky tracked that runner--who had won his last three--and ran him down nicely in the stretch after it looked like Sum of the Parts wouldn’t be catchable. Sum of the Parts came back to take Keeneland’s GIII Phoenix S. before dueling his way to fourth in the GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Spring to the Sky was a distant last in the GIII Bold Ruler going seven furlongs on dirt in October, but that’s not his game and only serves to dirty his form. He has Bridgetown drawn to his outside, but I think he’s faster than that runner if Javier Castellano wants him to be, and since they opted for this spot, he’s definitely being sent.

Race 11 - The Very One S. - Sensible Lady isn’t really going to be 6-1, is she? The Tim Salzman trainee is two-for-two at this course and distance, thanks to a pair of victories over Jazzy Idea here last year, including an upset win at 24-1 in this event. Jazzy Idea would be nowhere close to 6-1 in this spot considering she beat Jim McKay Turf Sprint 9-5 morning-line shot Ben’s Cat (as a 3-year-old filly facing older males) in the Laurel Dash in October. Sensible Lady did finish behind three of these foes last time in Keeneland’s Giant’s Causeway S., but it seemed like she just sort of got tired late after looking like she might blow by everyone. She probably needed the race off a six-month break, and I’d expect a big step forward back on her home turf. It also can’t hurt that Sweet Cassiopeia, winner of her last five including the Giant’s Causeway, is drawn out in 13. There isn’t much room before the turn going five furlongs on the Pimlico turf course, so the favorite is likely going to have to overcome significant ground loss.

Race 12 - GIII Pimlico Special - So much for what looked like a comeback for this once-prestigious event--this field is pretty uninspiring. The top two morning line choices look very tough, but if somebody’s going to pull off the upset it’s probably Brimstone Island (12-1). He’s consistent, occasionally almost fast enough and figures to love this nine-furlong trip at which he’s never been sent being being by Tiznow out of a Broad Brush Mare.

Preakness and Undercard Thoughts

--Brian DiDonato

GI Preakness S. - I'll be honest, I have nothing particularly insightful to say about the Preakness other than that I think those who are taking an extremely negative view on Bodemeister (Empire Maker) are trying too hard. I doubt anyone could seriously argue against the notion that he was much the best in the Derby, so I guess it comes down to an expected regression. Personally, I'm not one who subscribes to the bounce theory for the most part, and I doubt Bodemeister's a candidate for such a thing. His connections have been around the block enough times to know whether or not a very valuable horse like this with immense potential can handle short rest following a tough effort, and I just can't see them running Bodemeister back without every indication that he's doing very well. After all, they certainly didn't have to run here. They could've waited for the Belmont (a race which I think Bode might be even tougher in) or regrouped for a summer campaign. The presence of Trinniberg was the only thing that got Bodemeister beat in the Derby, so without him or another comparable speed present, I have a hard time envisioning anything but an easy lead for the Derby runner-up.

Bodemeister Galloping at Pimlico
Horsephotos

   If, somehow, the fractions do get too hot, it'll probably be I'll Have Another (Flower Alley) playing the antagonist out of a legitimate fear of letting Bodemeister get away. For that potential outcome, I'll use Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) as my lone off-the-pace back-up in the pick four. He was just hopelessly wide in the Derby, and had every right to stop a bit late after making that eye-catching move. His prior form fits, and while I'm not crazy about the fact that he shipped back to California before coming to Maryland, I'm going to trust veteran Mike Harrington, who seems to be getting fed up with the media's second-guessing. All those rumors about Creative Cause's pre-Derby condition seem to have been pretty inaccurate, after all. For a trifecta or superfecta spicer-upper, I'll toss in Zetterholm (Silver Train), who overcame slow splits to win going away against New York-breds last time. He should be running late and is bred to get the distance on his dam's side.

Air Support   Coady Photography

GII Dixie S. - This is definitely a spread race, but I'll look to zone in mostly on a pair of runners in the 6-1 to 8-1 range. While Casino Host (Dynaformer) will take plenty of play for good reason, it's worth noting that Air Support (Smart Strike) bested him in last year's GII Virginia Derby and should be the better price of the two. He returned from a long break Apr. 7 in a Keeneland allowance that easily could have been a Grade II or III, and endured a wide, no-cover trip before fading to fifth. According to Trakus, he covered 24 feet more than winner Al Khali, which cuts the five-length gap between them at the wire more than in half. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Shug McGaughey boasts absolutely gaudy numbers second off the lay-off in graded turf routes--he's hitting at a 32% clip with a $3.60 ROI over the past five years.
   Trend (Sligo Bay {Ire}) took 10 starts to break his maiden, but he seemed to blossom down at Gulfstream this winter. He bested subsequent GIII Appleton S. winner Corporate Jungle in a Jan. 19 allowance before running second in a salty renewal of the GIII Canadian Turf S. Mar. 3. Showing more speed than usual in the Canadian, Trend dueled the very quick Little Mike into submission--that runner came back to upset the GI Turf Classic S. on Derby day. Third-place finisher Data Link returned to annex the GI Maker's 46 Mile S., benefitting from a troubled trip for Canadian winner Doubles Partner. Trend was second again in the Appleton, but from back off the pace--a jockey switch from the always-patient Julien Leparoux to Alex Solis for this could mean a more aggressive ride, which would prove key.

J W Murphy S. - I don't know what to make of Done Talking (Broken Vow) running in this spot. He never struck me as having a turf action, and it seems like a flat mile is probably a bit too sharp for him. I'm certainly not going to let him knock me out of anything but, believe it or not, I'm not picking him to win. I'd love to lock in 8-1 on Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller) right now. He pressed a very hot early pace last time (13 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter) in the GIII Coolmore Lexington S. while three-wide in no-man's land, but still dug in to be third. Longshot winner All Squared Away and runner-up Summer Front both disappointed in subsequent efforts, but the also-rans, including fellow Murphy entrants Gold Megillah (Purim) and Skyring (English Channel) returned to run well. So did pacesetter Johannesbourbon, who was an unlucky runner-up on the turnback in Tuesday's Tom Ridge S. at Presque Isle. A better trip puts Hammers Terror right there on the wire in this very wide-open affair.

Sophomore Spotlight: BeS/Preakness Wrap-up

--Brian DiDonato

Both Royal Delta and Shackleford were deserving winners of the Black-eyed Susan and Preakness respectively, and it was another satisfying weekend of racing where trips did not dramatically affect outcomes. Of the two, though, Royal Delta certainly had more in her favor. With just five horses contesting the Black-eyed Susan after stretching-out sprinter Coax Liberty was scratched, it seemed like Hot Summer would have everything her own way on the front end. The riders of Wyomia and Buster's Ready did not let Hot Summer get away, however, and chased her through fractions that yielded an early pace that was five Moss Pace Figure Points above par--they weren't absolutely flying, but they were going a decent clip. Royal Delta and pilot Jose Lezcano watched the pace develop while perched wide and in the clear, and made a quick, decisive and daring move to squeeze through on the inside of Wyomia and draw clear, proving best under admittedly advantageous circumstances. The 100 Beyer Speed Figure Royal Delta earned for her victory was five points higher than what Plum Pretty received for her Oaks win, and the Bill Mott trainee will be very dangerous in the 3-year-old filly series in New York this summer.

Royal Delta                              (c) Wendy Wooley/EquiSport

Buster's Ready ran a big and somewhat surprising race, and she appears to be blossoming into a pretty decent horse. Three-wide while attending the pace, she dug in to prove a clear second best. She made a big jump from an 81 Beyer top to 96, but she had previously kept some decent company in New York and has clearly come a long way since breaking her maiden for a $50K tag in an Aqueduct off-the-turfer. Hot Summer ran just one Beyer point slower than she did when winning the Comely, but I'm still not sold on her wanting to go this far. A turn back to the one-mile Acorn in three weeks would be a positive move if she's doing well. Love Theway Youare was too far back early to ever make an impact--her best performance came last time at  Hollywood, and she seems like a horse who benefitted from the dynamics of racing on a synthetic surface. It's hard to blame the pace for Wyomia's last-place finish because her fellow pacesetters did not collapse like she did, and it's more likely that her dressed-up synthetic and Tampa Bay form just didn't transfer to a more traditional dirt surface. She'll prove best on grass if given the opportunity.

Shackleford Holds off Animal Kingdom
(c) Wendy Wooley/EquiSport

Even though I gave Shackleford a chance in my preview and used him on top in some bets, I was a bit surprised to see such a nice effort out of him. He ran about the same race he did in the Derby, but a 1/16th of a mile less and a surface that seemed to be playing fairer than Churchill did (dead rail) made the difference. The pace was neutral (as it was in Kentucky despite what many believe)--they went five Moss Pace Figure points above par in the first half-mile, but slowed it down to go four points below par at the next call. The 1-2-3-4 finishers were 2nd, 13th, 4th and 14th early, which is a very good indication that the pace was fair for all. The 104 Beyer Figure Shackleford earned is low historically, but it's the highest number earned by a 3-year-old in a route this year. He's clearly a talented horse with a bright future, but I would play against him going any farther than he went on Saturday. Speed horses can do well in the Belmont, but he'll be struggling late while a number of slower, but stouter runners will be doing their best running.

Animal Kingdom ran pretty much the exact same race he did in the Derby, and earned the same 103 Beyer. It was a nice effort and validated his 20-1 upset performance, but it also proved that he isn't a super horse or worthy of a Triple Crown. He's a solid and versatile runner in a very poor crop who has probably achieved more than he should have on the wrong surface because he has a talent edge on his competition. I don't like his chances in the Belmont relative to what his odds figure to be, but I don't see why he shouldn't go if he's doing well. That race is certainly right up his alley distance wise.

Astrology ran a better race than I was expecting, but he could not have had an easier trip. He saved all the ground while drafting behind the frontrunners, and while he earned a 101 Beyer Figure--a new top for him--he also proved that he's a cut below the best of his generation. If he was anywhere close to the top two in ability, he would have won with that set-up. He won't go on to the Belmont and looks to be pointing for the Haskell and/or Travers and, without knowing who he will be facing in those spots, I plan on taking a somewhat negative view on him. Once again, Dialed In came with too little, too late. He paired his 97 Beyer top, but was never a danger to win. Perhaps he was just looked better because he facing much weaker competition in the Holy Bull, but I still don't think he has reproduced anything close to that effort since he's been stretched out in distance. Shackleford's win and Dialed In's two disappointments also dispel the misinformed notion that Gulfstream was speed-favoring on Florida Derby day. As a bettor, I hope Dialed In returns for the Belmont, where misnomers about more ground being better for closers will drive down his odds despite his obvious distance limitations. As a fan, I wish the Met Mile wasn't so soon, because Dialed In is made for a race like that.

My two value keys--Dance City and Sway Away--were two of the most poorly behaved Preakness contestants in the post parade. Dance City refused to go in the gate, reminiscent of fellow Evans homebred Quality Road before the 2009 BC Classic, and made a mild four-wide move on the turn before flattening. Maybe he doesn't want to go this far or wants to be closer to the pace. I hope he'll eventually try turf, as he's bred to prefer that surface. Sway Away was extremely washed out before the race and looked very sluggish as soon as he left the gate. He just wasn't himself, and I don't think anything can be gleaned from his non-effort. It's still entirely possible that he's a one-turn horse, but there was nothing from Saturday to sway opinions one way or the other--he just ran a complete clunker.

While the 3-year-old action cools off for the next few weeks, Monday's Met Mile is looking like it will be another deep and contentious renewal. Check back here later in the week for a preview.

Sophomore Spotlight: Preakness Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

The first step in handicapping any renewal of the Preakness is determining what stance to take on the Derby winner. Animal Kingdom is an imposing figure--he convincingly established superiority over the group he faced two weeks ago and there is no reason to believe that anything has changed. From a betting perspective, however, Animal Kingdom's odds will be equal to or lower than his actual chance of victory, while a pair of new shooters figure to be significant overlays coming off rough trips and lacking the familiarity to the public of the Derby contestants. Animal Kingdom is the most frustrating kind of favorite--a deserving one, but an underlay. I will try to beat him in many of my bets, partially because I'm stubborn and partially due to my positive take on two others, but I will also use him heavily on top of my value keys--he can still top an overlaid pay-off. See below for my analysis of every runner in the Preakness field.

#6 Sway Away - This sway-backed colt was second with a very nice late move in the seven-furlong San Vicente behind The Factor and in front of next-out romper Premier Pegasus while earning a 101 Beyer. He appears on paper to have struggled with added ground after that, but he had significant trip excuses in his two route attempts. After a rough start in the Rebel, Sway Away was rank while being wrestled with a bit by Garret Gomez. In the Arkansas Derby, rider Patrick Valenzuela commenced his mount’s wide move much too prematurely. He grew leg weary late, but not because of distance limitations--because of trip. That heat was clearly the strongest Derby prep, as runner-up Nehro returned to fill the same slot in Kentucky and fifth-place finisher Alternation took last weekend's Peter Pan. He is by Preakness winner Afleet Alex, who sired last year's Travers hero Afleet Express, and is out of a Seattle Slew mare who herself is out of a Summer Squall mare--there's plenty of stamina in Sway Away's pedigree, and value to be had if you excuse his last two.

#8 Dance City - He seemed overmatched coming into the Arkansas Derby, but at almost 30-1, he was a surprising late factor after chasing faster-than-average fractions. All the positives discussed above for the race he and Sway Away exit are obviously relevant here, too. Dance City does not appear to need the lead, and figures to be well-ridden by Ramon Dominguez. He could find himself getting the jump on Animal Kingdom, and has a bit more stamina in his pedigree than meets the eye--especially on his dam side. His second dam, Dance Review, is by the incomparable Northern Dancer. She produced No Review (GISW at 1 1/4mT), Dance Colony (GISP at 1 1/8m) and Another Review (GISW at 1 1/8m, GISP at 1 1/4m).

#11 Animal Kingdom - It's hard to find any knocks against his Derby performance--believe me, I’ve tried. He was not the beneficiary of an advantageous set-up (nor did he overcome a rough trip), and he proved best. From a value standpoint, however, he will be an underlay. While he's the most likely winner and an absolute must-include, the two new shooters are closer to him in “actual” chance of winning than the odds will reflect and Shackleford has at least a minor chance to turn the tables. With a short turnaround and plenty of other obstacles, there is no reason to concede the race to Animal Kingdom at a short price. But you still can’t toss him.

#5 Shackleford - The pace he set in the Kentucky Derby was not nearly as glacial as it has been made out to be--it was very neutral. While the chart says he was off the rail in the Derby, he was inside for much of the race on a track that seemed all weekend to be a bit dead inside. He hung in for a long time and the minor cut back should help him. The big chestnut is similar in many ways to First Dude--the fellow Dale Romans trainee who finished second to Lookin at Lucky here last year--and the pace is not guaranteed to be as fast some believe it will be. I can conceive of scenarios where Shackleford will get loose and hold on, and will therefore protect with him in PK3/4 bets. I will also use him very sparingly on top in my exactas and trifectas and include him heavily underneath.

#9 Mucho Macho Man - He always runs his race, and might be the most likely of anyone to hit the board, but the big, still-developing colt always seems to find a foe or two better. There's really no reason to expect him to turn the tables on Animal Kingdom and he won't offer much value, but he is an underneath threat. He might even be a good anchor to build a backwards ticket around.

#14 Mr. Commons - Supposedly he displaced late in the Santa Anita Derby, which might be the only way to put a positive enough spin on his performance that day to project competitiveness Saturday. I thought highly of him before the Santa Anita Derby, and will use him in the third slot on the off chance that the promise he flashed when breaking his maiden on the sod will be realized in this spot. He's not a win candidate, however.

#7 Midnight Interlude - He was towards the top of my list for the Derby off a very solid Santa Anita Derby performance (not exactly flattered by him or Comma to the Top, however), but he ran an absolute clunker with no apparent excuse. He was a danger to find the Derby too much, too soon, and maybe that's what happened. It's not as if he put in a run like Curlin did (the immense chasm of talent between them aside) in the Derby, however, and it seems somewhat ambitious to even run him back here. I will use him protectively in the third slot, but it's hard to envision him performing the sort of U-turn he would have to to find the winner's circle.

#10 Dialed In - This might be my most dangerous opinion in the race (for my personal bankroll at least)--I don't think Dialed In will hit the board. His Kentucky Derby run was more of an illusion than the monster move from too far back it is being made out to be, and it was comparable to what he ran in his two previous efforts. It is a fallacy to believe he would have run a better race with faster early splits. He would have run the same race, just with more horses coming back to him. The expected second-choice has not come close to returning to the 98 Beyer top he earned for annexing the Holy Bull in impressive fashion, and gives the impression of a closing miler.

#1 Astrology - He has had a number of set-backs this year, and his form last term was dressed-up. He had a very easy trip in the Jerome and, while he finished second, nobody besides the winner impressed. This is a tall task for a horse who has been backed off on and re-routed several times, and it seems far more likely that he'll take a step back here rather than a jump forward.

#4 Flashpoint - His two sprint races were very impressive, but what was most puzzling about his Florida Derby try isn't that he was fairly uncompetitive--it's that he wasn't on the lead or at least pressing Shackleford. It's hard to count on him to be close early this time, but considering the lay-off and quick drills in the interim, he'll probably show more speed before fading. He'll be an interesting King's Bishop prospect down the line, but going long just isn't his game.

#2 Norman Asbjornson - He'll be running late, but there aren't going to be enough horses stopping in front of him to make up for the talent and speed edge many of his opponents have on him.

#13 Concealed Identity - He's the only Preakness contestant with a win (x2) or even a race at Pimlico, but that isn't nearly enough to make him competitive with these dramatically classier animals. He was offered up for a $30K tag when he won two-back, and the short turnaround probably won't do him any favors.

#3 King Congie - He improved dramatically when switched to the turf, and paid $88 that day because of how poor his dirt form was. His turf/synthetic races wouldn't be good enough to win this if he were able to transfer them to the main track, and I'm not convinced he wants to go long (unlike most turfy types)--his dam was a sprinter, by a sprinter (End Sweep), who sired sprinters (i.e. Trippi). King Congie also tends to misbehave late in his races.

#12 Isn't He Perfect - Not sure why he is in this race. He broke his maiden for a $40K tag and his only other victory came in a starter allowance--he faced three other runners that day and the second-place finisher was coming off a winning debut for $12.5K.

I will be betting Sway Away to win at what should be double-digit odds, and will box him in the exacta with Dance City and Animal Kingdom. I will also make a smaller Sway Away/Dance City/Shackleford exacta box. I will play trifectas with my top three, adding Shackleford and Mucho Macho Man in the second slot and Mr. Commons and Midnight Interlude in third. I will go for more of a home run in the Pick 3s and 4s, leaning almost completely on Sway Away and Dance City, and using a little Shackleford.