Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

KEE 3 - Alw, 7f (AWT) - Maybe it’s crazy to expect anything close to the 8-1 morning line quote on Ghostly Wonder, but well-regarded runners Twang and Green Mask should take their fair share of action, as could Augusta Road considering The Masters is this weekend (I know it sounds crazy, but watch him take more money than you’d normally expect). Dismissed as the longest shot in field of five first out at Arlington in June, 11-1 Ghostly Wonder dueled with the well-bet favorite before leaving him in the dust for a very easy 4 1/2-length score. Now I know what you’re thinking--beating four runners at Arlington isn’t any major accomplishment. But that favorite was Spot, who took the GII Swale last month. Two others won their next starts, including last-place finisher No Surrender, who resurfaced at Hawthorne Mar. 28 to romp by 6 1/2 lengths and earn a 92 Beyer. Ghostly Wonder earned a solid 79 Beyer for his win—which stacks up well with the rest of the field, and projects out to something in the 90 to 100 range by the old rule that young horses should improve 1 1/2 to 2 points per month of development. I’m not saying Ghostly Wonder is going to run a 100, but he can run a lot slower that that and still take this. Play: Win on #2 Ghostly Wonder (8-1).

KEE 9 - GI Madison S. - Turnbacks seem to be at a huge advantage going seven furlongs on the Keeneland Poly, and there are three in here that I strongly prefer over favorite Judy the Beauty, who I think is probably best going shorter. The most obvious of the three is Better Lucky--she’s a very nice turf miler, but is two-for-four sprinting and must be included. There’s also Byrama, who I’ve always believed is a better sprinter. She was very unlucky not to win this race last year as she was blocked for most of the stretch, and she makes the same cut back from a turf mile that she did last year, albeit for new connections this time around. The third horse I’m interested in is Eden Prairie. She cut back to just miss at 10-1 in the track-and-trip Raven Run in October, and has improved her speed figures markedly in three runs on the Fair Grounds lawn since. She also has the advantage of good tactical speed. Play: Win on #7 Byrama (6-1) OR #9 Eden Prairie (10-1) (whoever is higher in relation to their morning line), exacta box with #6 Better Lucky. DDs 6,7,9 w/ 8.

KEE 10 - GI Jenny Wiley S. - Speed has done extremely well on the turf so far this meet, and there isn’t an abundance of it here. Discreet Marq already would have been formidable anyway, but now she should be doubly tough over this surface. I was particularly impressed with her runner-up finish in the GI Matriarch last time Dec. 1. That was a solid field of older runners, and she gave locally based Egg Drop all she could handle to only get beat a nose. There are certainly others you have to use in exotics, but my money’s on Discreet Marq to make the lead and never look back. Play: Win on #8 Discreet Marq (6-1).

SA 6 - Alw, 7f - This is a pretty nice group of 3-year-olds. I really thought highly of Indexical last year—I loved his work at Barretts May, and though he could only manage a fifth-place finish with some trouble on debut at Del Mar in July, he returned the following month to break his maiden at 16-1 with the addition of blinker--two spots ahead of eventual Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner New Year’s Day. I can dismiss his close seventh after setting a slightly quick pace in the GI Del Mar Futurity, and turf route attempt when fifth last out in October’s Zuma Beach. Now he tries dirt for the first time, which seems likely to be his best surface, and should be right there with any improvement on his maiden breaker (I do worry that he’ll need a start off the bench, but the price should be right). Play: Win on #10 Indexical (12-1), exacta box with #4 Papa Turf, #8 Top Fortitude, #9 True Ten.

GP 9 - MSW, 1 1/16mT - This one’s admittedly a bit speculative, but Classy Kid will likely be an overlay in his turf debut for Mark Frostad. The 4-year-old showed early interest before fading to a distant fifth when unveiled sprinting here Feb. 28, but he never really figured to fire his best under those circumstances for a patient first-out trainer. By versatile, but usually better turf sire Lemon Drop Kid, Classy Kid is out of Grade III-winning turfer Dynamite Lass (Dynaformer), who never set foot on a main track. None of Dynamite Lass’s previous foals have been superstars, but they’ve definitely preferred routing and/or grass, and Classy Kid should follow that trend. Play: Win on #5 Classy Kid (20-1), exacta behind #1 Siete C, exacta box with #7 Knight of Valor, #8 Smart Spree, #10 Chunnel.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Saturday Spot Plays

--Brian DiDonato

AQU 8 - GIII Bay Shore S. - I picked Financial Mogul in the GIII Gotham S. as part of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby showdown, and mentioned (click here) after his even fourth-place finish that I thought he might appreciate a cut-back in distance. He gets it here, and should offer plenty of value. The dark bay romped by 5 1/2 lengths at Saratoga last time he tried seven panels, and he shows some quick works since the Gotham. I’ll also use Favorite Tale, who has crushed weaker competition at Parx in all three of his previous outings and could get a bit disrespected here; and another turn-back in The Admiral--his sprint debut and seven-furlong maiden breaker two back were both solid. I’m against favorite Kobe’s Back--he’s just way too obvious and inconsistent. Play: Win on #3 Financial Mogul (8-1), also using #6 Favorite Tale and #7 The Admiral in exotics.

AQU 11 - GI Carter H. - I love Clearly Now here. He was plagued by tough trips last season, including when finishing a very good second over track and trip 12 months ago in the Bay Shore. He showed what he could do with a better trip when he took Belmont’s GIII Bold Ruler H. with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure two back, but nearly went down after clipping heels on the turn in the GI Cigar Mile before settling for a solid fifth all things considered. Seven furlongs is probably Clearly Now’s ideal distance, and I look for him to sit just off the speed before pouncing. I’ll also hope to be alive in the pick four to last year’s Carter runner-up Sahara Sky as well as GI Malibu runner-up Central Banker. Play: (Large) Win on #2 Clearly Now (5-1), also using #1 Central Banker and #6 Sahara Sky in exotics.

SA 4 - MSW, 3yo, 6 1/2fT - I have a feeling that first-time starter Designated can run a bit. The Pam and Marty Wygod homebred is out of a mare who had some speed on the track before dropping talented sprinter Idiot Proof, a debut winner, Grade I winner on synth, Grade III winner on dirt and second in both the 2007 GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint and 2008 G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen. He also finished second in a Del Mar turf sprint stakes try. Another half-brother also won his debut and did most of his work in synthetic sprints. By a top turf (and overall) sire in Smart Strike, Designated shows some strong works up at Golden Gate for Jedd Josephson. Josephson has excellent numbers in two relevant categories. He’s two-for-four when shipping down to Santa Anita, including a 13-1 stakes upset down the hill here in 2011 and third with a 17-1 shot in an optional claimer a couple of weeks ago. Josephson also has very strong debut numbers--he’s 17% with a $3.75 ROI from a large sample size over the past five seasons (stats courtesy DRF Formulator). Included in those debut winners is last year’s champion juvenile Shared Belief, who Josephson unveiled for the Wygods up at Golden Gate in October before he was sold privately. Play: Win on #6 Designated (8-1), exacta box with #5 Footstepsinbronze.

SA 7 - GIII Providencia S. - Favorites Diversy Harbor and Nashoba’s Gold are both talented fillies with tons of upside, but it’s hard not to take a shot against them here considering the much different pace scenario they’ll face this time from when they ran one-two in the China Doll S. last out. The pace was very hotly contested in that one-mile affair, but there’s only one confirmed front-runner signed on here: One More. One More graduated against $75,000 maiden claimers two back over a mile of this turf course, and set a relatively unpressured pace last time to annex a course-and-distance (1 1/8 miles) allowance Mar. 13. She certainly didn’t have the toughest of trips that day, but I liked how she finished and think she’s a little better than the speed figure gap between her and the top two choices would suggest. Now, besides a win bet on One More, playing this race could get a little tricky. I’ll definitely use One More and the chalks in horizontal wagers, but I’ll also try to get some bombs into the trifecta. Longshots Full Ransom and Savings Account could find themselves closer to a slow pace this time and at least one of them could hit the board. So I’ll play 10 w/ 4,5,6,8 w/ 4,5,6,8, and 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 4,5,6,8. I’ll also play a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 w/ 5,6 superfecta (not sure there’s much point in playing a 4,8 w/ 4,8 w/ 10 TRI). Play: Win on #10 One More (6-1) and the exotics outlined above.

KEE 9 - GI Ashland S. - I’m not expecting the 15-1 she is on the morning line, but Rosalind has a big shot in here. The Ken McPeek trainee was a late-charging second in the GI Darley Alcibiades over this track and trip in October, and put in a similar run to be third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies the following month. Fourth with a wide journey in the GI Hollywood Starlet, she had some excuses when third on seasonal debut behind last Saturday’s GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner In Tune at Gulfstream Feb. 27. Steadied pretty significantly early, Rosalind was caught behind a slow pace over a track that favored speed for much of the meet. She’ll get tons of pace this time, returns to a synthetic strip, and sports a local bullet work. I expect her to have a say at decent odds. Play: Win on #8 Rosalind (15-1).

OP 9 - GIII Fantasy S. - I like two horses here and I’m going to try to get both of them on the board. I have to give Kiss Moon one more chance to run back to her excellent allowance score here Jan. 11—she set a very hot pace that day, but kept right on going to win by 9 1/2 lengths. A puzzling seventh as the favorite in the Martha Washington S. after that, Kiss Moon showed a little more life to be fourth behind a few of these rivals in the roughly run GIII Honeybee S. I’m not sure why Kiss Moon hasn’t been closer to the lead in her last two, but I expect she’ll be hard-sent this time—she adds blinkers and sports two quick works in the interim. Mufajaah returns on short rest since taking her second straight Mar. 23. She just has the look of a really talented horse—she won at will last out and there’s no reason she can’t handle the step up in class. I’m curious to see how hard they bet her. Play: Win on #5 Kiss Moon (12-1), exacta box with #4 Mufajaah. Trifectas 4,5 w/ ALL w/ 4,5.

See Saturday's TDN for this week's installment of the Twinspires.com Road to the Kentucky Derby Showdown with Brian and Steve Sherack's picks for the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby. Follow Brian on twitter @BDiDonatoTDN

Handicapping the Transylvania

--Brian DiDonato

   Keeneland’s Spring Meet kicks off with a particularly interesting renewal of the GIII Transylvania S. Friday. A total of 12 sophomore turfers line up for the 1 1/16-mile feature, and a trio of longshots caught my eye. 
   Irish import Can’thelpbelieving was second in his first North American start for Graham Motion going an additional sixteenth of a mile here in October, and broke through with a very impressive turn-of-foot while adding blinkers and Lasix at Gulfstream Jan. 11 (video). Stepped up for that venue’s GIII Palm Beach S. after that Mar. 1, the bay was asked to close over a surface that had been playing extremely kind to speed, and could only muster a close fifth while covering his final furlong quicker than every rival but one (video). Can’thelpbelieving might prove more effective over longer distances than he’ll get to work with here, but he figures to get plenty of pace this time and his 8-1 morning-line quote definitely offers value. 
   Another intriguing off-the-pace chance is Woodfield Springs. The son of MGSW Communique (Smart Strike) (winner of the GIII Bewitch S. here in 2008) ran on well to finish third over yielding Gulfstream grass first up Dec. 28. Switched to the main track Jan. 25, the G. Watts Humphrey, Jr. homebred set the pace before settling for fourth—not bad considering a pedigree that definitely leans heavily toward turf and synthetic (he’s by Raven’s Pass). Rusty Arnold gave Woodfield Springs Lasix for the first time before a Mar. 1 return to the turf, and while the bay did enjoy an easy ground-saving trip, he looked very good reeling in the pacesetter en route to a 1 1/2-length graduation (video). Connections were considering the GI Blue Grass S. for Woodfield Springs, but I wouldn’t necessarily take this decision to play it conservative as a negative—they likely just believe that his future is on the lawn, and they’re probably right. 
   Medal Count broke his maiden by daylight on the Ellis main track in September, but it would come as no surprise if the son of Dynaformer proved best on the lawn. His lone grass attempt was a victory, albeit by dead-heat against a fairly average group of optional claimers in Hallandale Jan. 12 (video). It seemed as if the 2-1 favorite was ridden a bit over-confidently that day, and he likely would have won by a more comfortable margin if asked earlier and if not for some mild interference. Thrown back in the deep end after that in the GII Fountain of Youth S. Feb. 22, Medal Count was fifth while improving by four points on the Beyer Speed Figure he earned for the Jan. 12. optional claimer. I like that progression considering Medal Count was probably in too deep and on the wrong surface last time, and there’s no reason he can’t step forward returning to the grass. 
   The play: I’ll bet #12 Can’thelpbelieving to win at 6-1+, use 1,3,12 in pick 3s and 4s, and box all three in the exacta. 

Follow Brian on twitter at @BDiDonatoTDN

A Tale of Two Trips

--Brian DiDonato

   In both Grade I races run for 2-year-olds this past Saturday--the Champagne and the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity--one can make the argument that the runner-up was best. One trip was obvious, so much so that it will be blown out of proportion going forward, while the other is far less likely to be picked up on by the wagering public.
   Anyone who saw Honor Code's late run in the Champagne was rightfully impressed (click for chart and video). Devoid of early speed, the hulking son of A.P. Indy was spun very wide into the stretch (seven or eight paths by solid third-place finisher Ride On Curlin) and flew home to fall a neck short of speedy fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Havana. It was a move that just looked so good visually that it only served to add to the hype surrounding a horse who seems to already rest atop many a 2014 Derby list.
   But when all the factors are considered, it might be a performance that looked better to the naked eye than it does when subjected to scrutiny. For starters, Havana worked hard every step of the way, pressing an above-average pace from second, while Honor Code conserved his energy at the back of the pack. It's telling that pacesetter Debt Ceiling finished last, while Grand Arrival, next-closest early, finished second-to-last.
   According to Trakus data, Honor Code covered 20 ft. (~2.4 lengths) more than Havana in the Champagne, but where he covered the extra ground is important. The dark bay didn't come off the rail until he started to approach the stretch. Ground loss at this point in a race is almost never the detriment that some believe it is. In addition to keeping a horse out of trouble and free to lengthen his stride, it allows him to build up additional momentum (I'm certainly no scientist, but it's centrifugal force or something). The wider a horse (or a bike, ice skater, etc.) turns into a straight, the more inertia they'll carry. So while a horse who goes wide into the lane has to cover more ground, they make up for it with the additional forward momentum they generate by a larger arc. Ground loss is definitely a major trip factor at other points of a race, but it is much less of a detriment late on the home turn and into the straight.

Honor Code (outside) falls just short of Havana
NYRA/Coglianese

   Breeders' Futurity runner-up Smarty's Echo, meanwhile, ran very well to be second, all things considered (click for chart and video). The 11-1 shot was fairly close to an extremely fast pace (25 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter), and never found cover. He was three or four wide at best throughout the two-turn contest, and traveled 23 feet more (~2.7 lengths) than the eventual 2 3/4-length winner We Miss Artie, who drafted early before tipping out under a perfect John Velazquez ride. (Interestingly, Horse of the Year Wise Dan went down at 1-2 one race later in the Shadwell 'Turf' Mile with a Smarty's Echo-like ride from Velazquez).
   Smarty's Echo only earned a 65 Beyer Speed Figure in what looks like a mediocre renewal of the Breeders' Futurity, but he did earn an 82 Beyer previously for his Arlington maiden breaker, and figures to offer some value wherever he shows up next. He ran much better on Saturday than he will be given credit for. Honor Code, on the other hand, possesses a world of upside, but everyone sees it. He's certainly good, but will definitely be overbet next time--perhaps so much so that he could be favored over Havana if he shows up at the Breeders' Cup. Horses with Honor Code's profile often end up being money burners, and Honor Code seems like he could be one of those types.

Weekend Graded Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

FRIDAY

KEE R8 - GIII Phoenix S. - Cajun Breeze is 50-1 on the morning line--anybody want to give me 40? I can't resist this horse considering the price he'll be, which I'm guessing will be more like 15 or 20-1. His Gulfstream form early this year was solid enough and it just seems like there was enough going against him in his last four tries to warrant giving him one more chance to return to his best races. The turnback from a fifth-place finish going a mile on the Saratoga turf adds to the appeal big time. I like that he was able to show speed on the lawn, which could translate to an ability to handle Polytrack, plus I thought Cajun Breeze ran a big enough race considering how wide he was on the first turn and how quick he went early. A pace collapse seems inevitable considering the 3-year-olds in here, so I'll look for Cajun Breeze to take back and make one run, like he did when almost winning the Sunshine Millions Sprint. Other turnback Night Party and GII Commonwealth S. winner Lonesome Street will also be on my exacta and pick four tickets.

KEE R9 - GI Alcibiades S. - What an excellent betting race--definitely a spread in the pick four--but I'm looking forward to getting a good win price on 'TDN Rising Star' Pure Indy, who my esteemed colleague Steve Sherack is even higher on than I am. Backed down to 3-1 for trainer Craig Dollase and West Point/Lakland Farm first out at Del Mar going 5 1/2 furlongs Sept. 1, the leggy chestnut lagged at the back early before switching out and inhaling her foes for a going-away success. She never looked comfortable, however, as the 7-5 favorite in Fairplex's Barretts Debutante S. two weeks later, and came under an early ride before checking in fifth. I'm willing to excuse that performance over a quirky surface, and think the move back to Polytrack plus the added distance will suit Pure Indy well. She's out of an A.P. Indy half-sister to MGISW turf router Pure Clan (also a MGSW router at two on dirt and third in the Kentucky Oaks), who was by the same sire as Pure Indy in Pure Prize. Pure Indy's GSW second dam also produced Greater Good, a GSW dirt router at two and three who was third in the 2005 Derby.

SATURDAY

BEL R8 - GI Champagne S.  - The New York-based 2-year-old males haven't impressed me yet for the most part this year, and I especially can't buy into the Archwarrior hype. His debut was fine, and obviously he's bred to prefer more ground, but you're definitely supposed to let him beat you if he's actually going to go favored over stablemate Shanghai Bobby. I'm against the latter, too, but could see playing him if the Archwarrior steam gets out of control. The obvious alternative is Goldencents, who romped by 7 1/4 lengths going box to wire at Del Mar Sept. 2 with a field's-best last-out Beyer of 93. His Moss Pace Figure line precludes me from liking him too much, however--he went his first quarter in a time that was 15 points below par on the Moss scale. He still flew home, so I'll use him in the pick four, but I can't take him to win. That leaves European invader Chief Havoc, who's certainly an intriguing entrant here. He's still a maiden, but looks to have some sneaky ability and could take to the dirt. The tall, green Kentucky bred came on late to be third on debut over the Kempton synth Aug. 29, and was second against a tough group of winners at Newbury just two weeks ago--both starts were at a mile. He kind of reminds me of Dullahan before he broke his maiden in last year's Breeders' Futurity--you know there's talent there, it's just a matter of when he'll figure it all out. One would think, being by Giant's Causeway, he might be best on turf, but there's enough dirt pedigree on his dam's side that it wouldn't be shocking if he takes to the main track--the price will be right to find out. Out of versatile La Reina (A.P. Indy), winner of the GIII Tempted S. going a mile on the dirt at Aqueduct, Chief Havoc's second dam is champion older mare Queena, a Grade I winner on dirt at 7f, 8f and 8 1/2f. Queena also produced the good turfer Brahms. Trainer Jeremy Noseda took the 2010 GIII Gotham S. on the Big A main track with Awesome Act, and he scored on this card last year with Western Aristocrat in the Jamaica.

BEL R9 - GI Jamaica H. - While Cogito is 4-1 vs. Summer Front's 5-1 price on the morning line, I'm hoping Summer Front gets backed down to second choice behind the very formidable favorite Dullahan so I can get a more generous price on the only possible upsetter. Some handicappers have claimed that Dullahan's just a synthetic specialist, but he's run well on turf before and he's probably a better horse now than he was last time he tried grass... if you think there's actually a meaningful difference between the two surfaces (especially the Polytrack brand). I'm much more against Summer Front, who I think has proven he has very little chance of beating Dullahan at his best. Cogito, on the other hand, has maybe a 30 or 40% chance of being just plain old better than Dullahan and an 80% chance of winning if Dullahan doesn't show up. His runner-up effort in the G2 Prix Eugene Adam in July has been seriously flattered ever since, and I think he was clearly best that day. He was switched out into the clear far too soon, while winner Bayrir drafted in behind horses for much longer. Bayrir has obviously been productive since that event, convincingly annexing the GI Secretariat in front of Summer Front and finishing second in the G2 Prix Niel back in France. He was a late supplement into Sunday's Arc and is a bit intriguing in there. Additionally, and less apparent to American bettors, Eugene Adam third-place finisher Fractional has won twice since, including taking a Group 3 at Deauville last time; and fourth-place finisher Starboard scored in the G3 Prix du Prince d'Orange at Longchamp Sept. 22. I also like that Cogito's adding blinkers--trainer Brian Meehan was adding the hood for Red Rocks when he took the 2008 GI Man o' War S. and for Dangerous Midge when he upset the 2010 GI Breeders' Cup Turf.

KEE R8 - GI Breeders' Futurity S. - He's Had Enough's debut was similar to Pure Indy's. Unveiled going 6 1/2 panels at Del Mar Aug. 12, the grey overcame a very slow pace to get up from last to first and earn his diploma over a well-bet frontrunner. That visually impressive effort earned him 7-2 favoritism in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf S. Sept. 5, but the Reddam colorbearer settled for a close-up sixth despite some trouble. In last early behind a pace that looks very hot on paper, but held up reasonably well, He's Had Enough was forced to make his move very wide into the stretch and was then herded out and interfered with by another foe in the lane. He was never really able to get his feet under him due to all the interference, but still earned the fastest final quarter in the field. Runner-up Power Broker returned to take the GI FrontRunner S. last Saturday. There appears to be plenty of pace signed on here to set up He's Had Enough's late kick, and I like the switch back to Polytrack and the addition of blinkers. The distance should also be right up his alley--he's by Tapit out of a stakes-winning Dixieland Band mare who also dropped recent GI Joe Hirsch third-place finisher Kindergarden Kid. His second dam's a MGSW who produced the useful European runner Bertolini, and his third dam is Broodmare of the Year Courtly Dee. The 12-1 morning line quote might be a bit high, but anything over 6-1 is enticing. 

Keeneland Spring - God’s Country

--Gary King

People talk about Saratoga and Del Mar, but there is something very special about Keeneland Spring. I have been fortunate to attend many of the world’s top races/festivals, and Keeneland Spring is comparable to any of them. The buzz around Lexington leading up to, and during the month of April is amazing. The horses are top-notch, the atmosphere is electric, and the girls are very easy on the eye. What more could you ask for? Granted the weather tends to be a little erratic, evidenced this weekend, but this fails to dampen people’s spirits.


The young demographic at Keeneland

 For the people of Lexington and beyond, Keeneland is the place to be for the month of April regardless of weather conditions. Moreover, to see such a young demographic at the track is refreshing to say the least. It’s true that the majority are there solely to tailgate and some never actually see a horse, but racing needs to be promoted as a social occasion. Despite angering the purists, people do not need to know the ins-and-outs of handicapping and pedigree analysis to enjoy a day at the races. As Darley America’s Gerry Duffy so aptly put it at dinner last week--you need to get the masses racing before converting them into fans/bettors.

I realize that not all racetracks can be a Keeneland or a Saratoga, but it is pleasant to attend the races where there are more people than horses. It simply fuels my desire for adopting a two-tier racing system, similar to a major and minor league. Such a system would adhere to the quality over quantity philosophy, while also making it easier for the general public to identify and relate to our complicated and fragmented sport. For example, the Australian industry is thriving at present partially due to its tiered approach--city tracks and country tracks. 

If nothing else, Keeneland Spring makes you feel a little more optimistic about the sport’s future. Racing still has the capacity to evolve beyond the sporting realm, appealing to a variety of people from all walks-of-life.

Sophomore Spotlight: No Factor

--Brian DiDonato

We saw longshot winners Saturday take both the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass, but the races could not be more opposite in how productive they should prove come Kentucky Derby day.

While I picked Brilliant Speed to win the Bluegrass in my preview of the race, I do not consider him a contender for the Derby. I handicapped the race as if it were on turf, and the best turf horse won. Brilliant Speed’s two tries on dirt to begin his career were obviously at distances dramatically shorter than what he figured to be best at, but he never showed any life in those early events and has never turned in a reasonably quick work on dirt. Dynaformer can get very good dirt routers (Barbaro, Dynever, and Perfect Drift), but his runners will always be geared a little bit more towards grass. Brilliant Speed also gets a reasonable amount of surface versatility from his dam’s side, but performance always outweighs pedigree, and what he has shown on the track suggests that he is not well-suited for the Churchill Downs main track.



Brilliant Speed Gets Up. . . Barely                         (c) EquiSport

Brilliant Speed’s run in and of itself--rather than how it projects for the Derby--is hard to interpret. He put in a very visually impressive run from dead last and got his last three furlongs in :34.75, but the track was blatantly anti-speed all weekend, reminiscent of how it was two or three years ago. The Moss Pace Figures for the Bluegrass suggest that the pace was absolutely glacial, but I don’t think they can be taken at face value considering the nature of the surface. Brilliant Speed’s 89 Beyer Speed Figure was low compared to what other members of his generation have been running but, again, the number cannot be relied upon heavily because of the way the race was run and the surface over which it was run (Note: Beyers and Moss Pace Figures use the same track variant--so their interpretation of the speed of the track is identical). While Brilliant Speed was the beneficiary of a track that played to his running style, he took advantage of those fortuitous circumstances in impressive fashion--horses can have things go their way and still be given credit for good performances. Brilliant Speed will be dangerous when put back on the turf this summer in races like the Secretariat or Virginia Derby, just like last year’s Bluegrass place horse Paddy O’Prado was, but don’t expect much from him in Kentucky unless the track comes up muddy. Runner-up Twinspired ran more against the grain of the track than Brilliant Speed, but the worst race of his career came in his only dirt start. He is unlikely to factor on May 7.

Archarcharch Holds off Nehro; KY Derby Quinella?
(c) Horsephotos

Whereas the Bluegrass did not produce any serious Derby contenders, The Louisiana Derby featured what I consider to be the two most likely horses to get the roses. Both Archarcharch and Nehro have the right running style (somewhere between stalker and closer) to win the Derby and the necessary stamina for 1 1/4 miles, and the 98 Beyer Speed Figures they each received is the highest number earned in the final round of Derby preps. The respective trips of the one-two finishers were pretty much a wash; Nehro saved more ground early, but Archarcharch got the jump on him turning for home. The pace was fast for the first quarter, but the frontrunners were able to slow things down for the middle part of the race and should have had plenty left if good enough. This was a fairly run event--it did not feature the pace collapse that some seem to think it did. Going forward, I still prefer Nehro. He seems to have a bit more upside and room for continued improvement, although his lack of seasoning is cause for concern. Both colts are sired by stamina influences, but while Nehro’s siblings were better routers, Archarcharch’s dam was a pure sprinter. Nehro also galloped out in front Archarcharch. Both will be featured prominently on my Derby tickets, but Nehro’s still number one on my list.

The Factor’s performance was disappointing and obviously does not bode well for the Derby. I suppose it’s possible that his very dull effort can be explained by him displacing, but he never seemed comfortable rating. In what was supposed to be the true test of his stamina and ability to handle an adverse pace scenario, The Factor simply came up short. He is undoubtedly talented, but if he goes on to Churchill he will once again be very vulnerable. The Factor’s best hope in the Derby would be to send hard early. Under the right circumstances and on the right track, if he were to clear, he would have a chance to hang on for a piece late, but the likelihood of him being able to get the lead without any pressure is very low. Dance City doesn’t have the graded earnings to get into the Derby, but his performance was solid and much better than expected. One of the toughest trips in racing is to be the horse chasing the leader, but the way he dug in and ran on was very encouraging. Sway Away’s run was produced much too prematurely. He has not been given the opportunity to showcase the ability he flashed in the San Vicente in his last two, but will at some point--probably when turned back to a one-turn mile or seven furlongs.

The upcoming Lexington should be an interesting event featuring some runners trying to sneak into the top 20 in graded earnings. Check back later this week for a preview, and perhaps a discussion of the Jerome in New York if it draws an interesting field.

Sophomore Spotlight: Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby Previews

--Brian DiDonato

   The complexion of Saturday’s GI Bluegrass, which will be run on Polytrack at Keeneland for the fifth time Saturday, has changed dramatically in recent years as it has become clear that turf horses excel over the surface. Half of this year’s field last raced on grass, and all but one entrant has tried the sod at least once in his career. The race has yielded quirky results, and giant pay-offs. The winner’s average odds over the last four years is 17.8-1. Two runners from Polytrack runnings of the Bluegrass have gone on to hit the board in the Derby. Street Sense, who was second in a three-way photo in 2007, obviously went on to win. He had serious dirt form, though, having taken the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile under the Twin Spires the previous fall. Paddy O’Prado was second last year before finishing third in the Derby, but his Derby performance was aided by the sloppy surface and he would go on to do his best work on the lawn.

Santiva gallops over the Poly (c) Wendy Wooley/EquiSport

   Favored Santiva seems to be the most versatile runner in the group. Second while still a maiden over this strip in the GI Breeders’ Futurity last term, he took the GII Kentucky Jockey Club in Louisville to end 2010 and was second in the GII Risen Star at Fair Grounds in his only other outing this year. Up until the Risen Star, the biggest knock on Santiva was his low Beyer Speed Figures, but the drastically improved 91 he earned in his sophomore debut stands out in this group. An impressive winning performance would probably make him a Derby contender. If you are inclined to wager on an event like this, however, it’s hard to take a short price--especially on a horse who has a propensity to run second (5:1-3-1 record) and in a race where the recent results have been head-scratchers.

   Brilliant Speed doesn’t look like much on paper, but further examination into his form yields some interesting findings. In his first start on firm turf at the end of 2010, the Live Oak homebred beat Extensive, who would later finish one slot behind Spiral winner Animal Kingdom in a Gulfstream allowance before taking a listed stake at Tampa last Saturday. Brilliant Speed was stepped right up into the Dania Beach on the turf at Gulfstream off his maiden win, and came just a nose short after getting stuck behind a wall of horses in the lane and having to alter course significantly to find racing room. Also-rans in that heat include Rushaway winner Swift Warrior and fellow Bluegrass competitor Twinspired. Brilliant Speed last appeared in the Hallandale Beach and finished third, beaten only a neck. Stablemate King Congie--also entered in the Bluegrass--came out significantly on Brilliant Speed in the lane, however, and was demoted from first to third. Once again, Brilliant Speed was best but didn’t make it into the winner’s circle. As a son of Dynaformer, Brilliant Speed should appreciate the added ground. He is out of an unraced Gone West mare who sold for $1.45M as a yearling and who herself is out of a GISP half-sister to Belmont and Haskell winner Touch Gold and Canadian champion 3-year-old and MGSW With Approval. Brilliant Speed’s form coming into this race also resembles that of stablemate Arthur’s Tale, who was a narrow second in last weekend’s Wood Memorial for Tom Albertrani.

Sensational Slam (outside) gets up in Capossela
(c) Jessie Holmes/EquiSport

   Team Valor’s Crimson China, already a winner over Polytrack last year at Wolverhampton, showed an impressive late kick in his first U.S. start over the Gulfstream sod at this distance in February and garnered the “TDN Rising Star” tag for that allowance win. He then overcame a significant pace disadvantage over a similar surface at Turfway in the Rushaway. Last early, Crimson China finished second in a race dominated by speed. He is very well-suited for this race, but might be at the mercy of a pace that doesn’t figure to be too hot. I’ve been on the Willcox Inn bandwagon almost as long as my savvy colleague Steve Sherack, but he’ll need to run much faster here to contend--not that he isn’t capable of it. His past foes--Animal Kingdom, Soldat, Santiva and Great Mills have all flattered him with subsequent efforts. Sensational Slam is a two-time stakes winner on Poly in Canada, and looked pretty good taking the Capossela at Aqueduct. In his only route attempt, however, he was ninth of 10 in the With Anticipation over the Saratoga lawn. With the added distance, his pedigree could go either way, but the chestnut appears to belong with these based solely on raw ability.

The Factor                                             (c) Coady Photography

   The Arkansas Derby is clearly The Factor’s race to lose and, with Uncle Mo’s flop last week, he might be the last hope to see a truly fast Derby prep performance. He is a legitimate talent (not that Uncle Mo wasn’t), but he is not without question marks. The Factor was not tested on the front end last time in the Rebel--”unopposed” is how the chart caller put it. Four runners are adding blinkers and could show more early foot, and Dance City’s early speed, according to the Moss Pace Figures, is comparable to The Factor’s, so perhaps the chalk will get a sterner front-end test this time. Representatives of red-hot sprinter War Front’s first crop haven’t been fully tested yet at nine furlongs or more. Soldat took the Fountain of Youth with an advantageous trip before finishing off the board in the Florida Derby, and a son of War Front broke his maiden at 1 1/4 miles in France two weeks ago, but a larger sample size must be available before we can conclude how much stamina the War Fronts will generally possess. It’s entirely possible that The Factor will once again run his foes off their feet in this spot but, until he proves otherwise, he will continue to be somewhat vulnerable as the distances get longer and the pace gets more crowded.

Nehro (inside) can't squeeze by Pants on Fire (c) Hodges

   At this point, Nehro is number one on my list for the Kentucky Derby. I already praised his runner-up performance in the Louisiana Derby in the first Sophomore Spotlight entry (here), and see him as having three additional advantages in this spot. Firstly, Nehro is one of only three runners with previous experience at the distance (Elite Alex was fourth behind Nehro in Louisiana, and Dance City broke his maiden at nine furlongs in the slop at Gulfstream). Clearly he relished the added ground last time, as you’d expect with his pedigree. His half-brother Saint Marden (Saint Ballado) was twice a winner (once in the GIII Discovery H.) at this distance and earned a 112 Beyer for a 1 1/16-mile allowance win. Nehro also owns a win over the track--he broke his maiden in very impressive fashion with a quick, sweeping move to win going away. His third advantage comes from the change in tactics he employed in the Louisiana Derby. Nehro was much closer that day, and his ability to keep The Factor in his sights on Saturday should help minimize that one’s tactical advantage. If Nehro can stalk in the second flight while one or two other runners pester the Factor, he should be able to run him down.

   Alternation has been very consistent--taking his last three starts, all routing, but was scratched from the Rebel after flipping in the gate. In addition to an attitude adjustment, he needs a speed figure boost, but his consistency and two wins over the track are positives. He too should love nine furlongs. Alternation is by top sire Distorted Humor out of the MSW and MGSP router Alternate (Seattle Slew), who is a half to MGISW at this distance Peaks and Valleys (Mt. Livermore). Archarcharch has the stamina and consistency to hit the board here and/or in Kentucky, and Sway Away deserves another chance if he’s ridden more aggressively. With P-Val in the irons, that’s guaranteed.

Check back early next week for a wrap-up of the last two major preps for the Kentucky Derby.

Leading By Example

--Gary King

I really enjoyed Tom Thornbury’s South American series in the TDN this week. Tom is a fine judge of horseflesh, and his glowing report of the stock down there speaks volumes. I had the privilege of inspecting yearlings with Tom and the Keeneland team--Geoffrey Russell, Dr. Peter Hall, Dr. Gary Lavin, Dr. Johnny Mac Smith, Ryan Mahan and Mark Maronde--for the 2009 September Yearling Sale. Spending time with the guys and getting to see some of the best farms/yearlings in America was a fantastic experience.



Despite criticism in certain quarters, Keeneland has endeavored to innovate over recent years. Naturally, some attempts have failed while others have flourished.

Dr. Gary Lavin

 The emerging markets program has been a tremendous success, by highlighting the benefits of co-operation to an industry often restricted by vested-interest. Keeneland has added diversity to its client portfolio, while emerging breeding industries have benefitted in the form of expertise and technical support. This win-win scenario proves that success in the Thoroughbred world is not necessarily a zero-sum game. Chauncey Morris, Tom Thornbury and co. should be given credit for their tireless work.



 Keeneland’s latest affiliation with Del Mar is another step in the right direction. Encouraging new people into the game is imperative, and what better way to showcase the beauty of Thoroughbred racing than at Del Mar? The partnership needs to simplify the process of horse ownership, as outsiders are often confused by the Thoroughbred industry’s idiosyncracies. Unfortunately, this lack of knowledge has often been exploited in the past. The Keeneland - Del Mar partnership will bring integrity and transparency to the table, helping to solve these ingrained cultural issues. 



Keeneland are not content to ride out the end of the wave, and its innovation will go some way to securing the future health of the industry. Hopefully, the sales company has set a precedent that others will follow.



Keeneland Inspection Team '09