Showdown at the Spa: Day 28

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - And Steve thought Atigun’s ride in the Jim Dandy was bad... Wow. That was some serious ineptitude aboard Miami Cat at 9-1. Let’s go to the videotape... Off a bit awkwardly, the Florida invader was strangled back off a pace that never really developed (maybe because he was supposed to be involved in it?). He tried to pull himself closer on the turn, but was instead strangled back and buried in between horses. Dropped all the way out of it to last at the head of the lane, Miami Cat flew home on the far outside to be beaten a length and a neck in fourth.  

Monday - Race 1 - Msw, 3yo/up, 1 1/8m - #3 After the Bell (8-1)
   The top four favorites (two are coupled) in this six-betting-interest affair have a combined record of 39-0-12-9. Yuck. After the Bell, however, still has plenty of upside. The Darley homebred was devoid of speed when unveiled going seven panels at Belmont May 19, dropping far out of it after a slow break before showing some late interest to cut his losing margin to 12 1/2 lengths while checking in seventh. It seemed visually like more than just a clunk-up--he was doing some actual running--and three horses from that heat, including two who finished behind him, returned to break their maidens next out. More distance certainly helps After the Bell, as his pedigree is exceptional for 1 1/8 miles. By excellent stamina influence Empire Maker, the dark bay is out of GI Ashland S. winner and GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up Rings a Chime (Metfield), making him a full-brother to MGISW router Country Star. If that's not a nine-furlong pedigree, I don't know what is. I'm still a bit concerned that After the Bell may find himself too far out of it, as the works since his debut are incredibly slow, but that's how all Tom Albertrani horses work, and I'd think that After the Bell would be adding blinkers here if his lack of speed was that much of an issue. Play: $25 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $40 Win on #8 Geisha Gal (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 2 - $10 Win on #7 Good Law. Bankroll: $800 - Record: 24-2-4-4.    

Sherack: Sunday - Better Lucky sat the trip in fourth and had every chance in the stretch, but was simply not good enough when the real running began in the Lake Placid.

Monday - Race 8 - Msw, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/8mT - #3 Opalite (15-1)
   Opalite caught my attention with a strong third at 12-1 going 1 3/16 miles last out at the Spa July 29, and can make some noise at a big price in this one. Hard held in eighth that day through a half mile in :48.56 and six furlongs in 1:13.90, Opalite hit the gas with a good four-wide move on the turn for home and kept on coming in the stretch to finish within 3 1/4 lengths of the impressive winner Riolama. The bay has continued to improve since receiving a freshening in the spring and switching to turf in her last two, and should save all the ground with an inside draw here. Deep closer should have more than enough pace to run at to make an impact and cutting back to 1 1/8 miles should be right in her wheelhouse. Play: $14 Win (Turf Only). Bankroll: $1,177.80 - Record: 27-6-4-3.

Belmont Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

   Horseplayers, investors and other types of gamblers often place too much emphasis on trends that seem pertinent but are not. When one bets on red in roulette because it has come out the past five spins, that's what we call the gambler's fallacy--each spin, or hand or race featuring disparate players or factors is its own entity, undetermined by and unrelated to past events. In racing, we've seen supposed un-buckable trends broken in recent years because what was perceived as causally determined by real and relevant factors was probably simply variance or randomness. If this notion holds merit, perhaps we should simply ignore the past 11 failed Triple Crown attempts and hand over the GI Belmont S. trophy to I'll Have Another (Flower Alley)--he certainly would be a deserving winner. It shouldn't matter that Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin, or that Smarty Jones couldn't quite go that far or that Big Brown had a shoe issue, didn't like the weather or just failed to show up. But it does, because the Belmont isn't like other races.
   For all the factors that make an impact on every race every day--pace dynamics, traffic, bias, etc.--the Belmont has a set of additional factors almost all its own. The quirky distance that has become completely irrelevant in the modern American sport, the short turnaround from the Preakness and the Derby and the large target that a Triple Crown aspirant has on his back are tiny roadblocks in and of themselves, but when combined they present a major hurdle. In wagering, it all comes down to price, and while no rational person would deny that I'll Have Another has proven up to this point to be the best runner in this field by a large margin, you simply can't do anything but play against him at less than even money. We'd all like to see a deserving Triple Crown winner, though it certainly won't be the sport's saving grace that some hope it might, but to bet on it would be a mistake that would leave some value on the table.

Paynter stretches his legs at Belmont
Horsephotos

   I'm going with Paynter (Awesome Again) on top mainly because he's the one horse in this race who could potentially prove more talented than the favorite. I'll Have Another did beat Paynter by 3 3/4 lengths in the GI Santa Anita Derby when the latter was fourth, but the Zayat colorbearer was coming off just a 5 1/2-furlong debut. He then turned back for Churchill's one-mile GIII Derby Trial S. and dug in well in the slop to be second after contesting a pace that was 10 points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Paynter earned a revised Beyer Speed Figure of 100 for that effort--none of I'll Have Another's other challengers have reached the century mark. The $325,000 KEESEP yearling wasn't done climbing the Beyer scale, however, as he earned a 106 for a 5 3/4-length allowance romp on the Preakness undercard. He faced little adversity and/or resistance in that race, but did everything that was asked of him and comes into this race relatively fresh compared to those who have already competed in one or two Triple Crown events. Seasoning is certainly the main concern for Paynter--it's possible that he doesn't have the foundation to get this demanding distance off just a four-race career that started in February--but perhaps his stout pedigree will help him. The bay is the son of a major route influence in Awesome Again out of a full-sister to Tiznow and Budroyale, both runners who excelled at 10 furlongs.
   I'll also use two back-ups in my attempt to beat I'll Have Another that I fear could very well turn out to be trap horses because of their late-running styles, but who could benefit if Paynter does too much early. Dullahan (Even the Score) hung a bit in the Derby, but he has looked exceptional working and galloping over the track since he's been in New York. He came into the GI Blue Grass S. the same way, and certainly gives the impression that more distance can only be to his advantage. I was extremely high on Street Life (Street Sense) after his graduation and subsequent victory in the Big A's Broad Brush S. He has shown such a lack of early speed in his last two races, however, that he's forfeited any chance of victory. I was ready to sign the divorce papers with Street Life last time after his third in the GII Peter Pan S. from out of the clouds behind a quick pace, but I spoke with trainer Chad Brown last week (click here for TDN story) and he made some interesting and logical points that have convinced me to give Street Life one more chance, albeit not as my main play.
   I've voiced my doubts about Union Rags (Dixie Union) a number of times here and nothing has changed. I'll change my tune when he runs a fast race, though I do think the rider change to John Velazquez should allow the good-looking bay to relocate some of the speed he had as a 2-year-old. I'm not sure that'll help him get the distance, however.

Now for some undercard thoughts...

GI Manhattan H. - Hudson Steele (Johannesburg) couldn't have had an easier trip than the ground-saving pocket journey he enjoyed last time in the GII Dixie S., and his pedigree doesn't scream 10 furlongs. I'll look to beat him with Desert Blanc (GB) (Desert Style {Ire}), who kept superior company in Europe last year (Cirrus des Aigles, Casamento, etc.) at distances such as this one. He was completely left at the break against several of these foes in the 8 1/2-furlong GIII Fort Marcy S. last time, but recovered nicely to be second despite losing plenty of ground throughout. The Chad Brown trainee hasn't shown tons of speed in the past, but I have a feeling that the always pace conscious Ramon Dominguez might look to steal this one. 6-1 would be a gift. I'll also spread with some others, including longshots Al Khali (Medaglia d'Oro), who I've always been a sucker for and who seems best suited to this sort of distance and a turf course; and Omayad (Chi), a Chilean superstar who was clearly prepping last time in a one-mile Hollywood allowance.

GII Woody Stephens S. - Bourbon Courage (Lion Heart) could not have been more impressive in his first two starts, but he disappointed a bit when fourth in the GIII Derby Trial S. That race came after a deluge-induced delay at Churchill, however, and the bay traveled as if he despised the slop. A return to his best makes him very much the horse to beat, especially at a trip that may be better for him than a flat mile. I'm also interested in Il Villano (Pollard's Vision), whose Chick Lang S. score (99 Beyer) is hard to argue with; and Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones), who may show more outside of New Mexico this time off the trainer change. This is definitely a race to go price hunting.

GI Just a Game S. - Winter Memories (El Prado {Ire}) is undoubtedly a very nice horse from a nice family, but she's a perpetual underlay. For whatever reason--maybe her running style that gives the illusion that she's overcome adversity when she's actually had an easy trip or her grey color--she's always overbet. There is absolutely no way she should be half or a third the price of Hungry Island (More Than Ready), who has beaten her before and whose win in the GII Distaff Turf Mile was superior to Winter Memories's GIII Beaugay S. score. I do think that last time was the time to have Hungry Island, however, so I'll also include pace players Wallis (GB) (King's Best) and Tapitsfly (Tapit) as well as Sylvestris (Ire) (Arch), who was extremely visually impressive last time in a local seven-furlong optional claimer.

Race 4 - Turf MSW - Ruthless Alley (Flower Alley) ran huge in his lone turf try when dueling through hot splits before settling for third. He should get clear here, and is a very likely winner relative to his odds. He'll probably be the overlay of the day at 8-1 or better.

Preakness and Undercard Thoughts

--Brian DiDonato

GI Preakness S. - I'll be honest, I have nothing particularly insightful to say about the Preakness other than that I think those who are taking an extremely negative view on Bodemeister (Empire Maker) are trying too hard. I doubt anyone could seriously argue against the notion that he was much the best in the Derby, so I guess it comes down to an expected regression. Personally, I'm not one who subscribes to the bounce theory for the most part, and I doubt Bodemeister's a candidate for such a thing. His connections have been around the block enough times to know whether or not a very valuable horse like this with immense potential can handle short rest following a tough effort, and I just can't see them running Bodemeister back without every indication that he's doing very well. After all, they certainly didn't have to run here. They could've waited for the Belmont (a race which I think Bode might be even tougher in) or regrouped for a summer campaign. The presence of Trinniberg was the only thing that got Bodemeister beat in the Derby, so without him or another comparable speed present, I have a hard time envisioning anything but an easy lead for the Derby runner-up.

Bodemeister Galloping at Pimlico
Horsephotos

   If, somehow, the fractions do get too hot, it'll probably be I'll Have Another (Flower Alley) playing the antagonist out of a legitimate fear of letting Bodemeister get away. For that potential outcome, I'll use Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) as my lone off-the-pace back-up in the pick four. He was just hopelessly wide in the Derby, and had every right to stop a bit late after making that eye-catching move. His prior form fits, and while I'm not crazy about the fact that he shipped back to California before coming to Maryland, I'm going to trust veteran Mike Harrington, who seems to be getting fed up with the media's second-guessing. All those rumors about Creative Cause's pre-Derby condition seem to have been pretty inaccurate, after all. For a trifecta or superfecta spicer-upper, I'll toss in Zetterholm (Silver Train), who overcame slow splits to win going away against New York-breds last time. He should be running late and is bred to get the distance on his dam's side.

Air Support   Coady Photography

GII Dixie S. - This is definitely a spread race, but I'll look to zone in mostly on a pair of runners in the 6-1 to 8-1 range. While Casino Host (Dynaformer) will take plenty of play for good reason, it's worth noting that Air Support (Smart Strike) bested him in last year's GII Virginia Derby and should be the better price of the two. He returned from a long break Apr. 7 in a Keeneland allowance that easily could have been a Grade II or III, and endured a wide, no-cover trip before fading to fifth. According to Trakus, he covered 24 feet more than winner Al Khali, which cuts the five-length gap between them at the wire more than in half. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Shug McGaughey boasts absolutely gaudy numbers second off the lay-off in graded turf routes--he's hitting at a 32% clip with a $3.60 ROI over the past five years.
   Trend (Sligo Bay {Ire}) took 10 starts to break his maiden, but he seemed to blossom down at Gulfstream this winter. He bested subsequent GIII Appleton S. winner Corporate Jungle in a Jan. 19 allowance before running second in a salty renewal of the GIII Canadian Turf S. Mar. 3. Showing more speed than usual in the Canadian, Trend dueled the very quick Little Mike into submission--that runner came back to upset the GI Turf Classic S. on Derby day. Third-place finisher Data Link returned to annex the GI Maker's 46 Mile S., benefitting from a troubled trip for Canadian winner Doubles Partner. Trend was second again in the Appleton, but from back off the pace--a jockey switch from the always-patient Julien Leparoux to Alex Solis for this could mean a more aggressive ride, which would prove key.

J W Murphy S. - I don't know what to make of Done Talking (Broken Vow) running in this spot. He never struck me as having a turf action, and it seems like a flat mile is probably a bit too sharp for him. I'm certainly not going to let him knock me out of anything but, believe it or not, I'm not picking him to win. I'd love to lock in 8-1 on Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller) right now. He pressed a very hot early pace last time (13 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter) in the GIII Coolmore Lexington S. while three-wide in no-man's land, but still dug in to be third. Longshot winner All Squared Away and runner-up Summer Front both disappointed in subsequent efforts, but the also-rans, including fellow Murphy entrants Gold Megillah (Purim) and Skyring (English Channel) returned to run well. So did pacesetter Johannesbourbon, who was an unlucky runner-up on the turnback in Tuesday's Tom Ridge S. at Presque Isle. A better trip puts Hammers Terror right there on the wire in this very wide-open affair.

Black-Eyed Susan and Pimlico Special Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GII Black-Eyed Susan - While I don't expect a longshot winner in this race, I do think there are plenty of reasons to play against two of the favorites, Mamma Kimbo (Discreet Cat) and In Lingerie (Empire Maker) (her 5-1 morning line quote seems unrealistic--she'll be lower).
   The reason not to like In Lingerie is pretty obvious--she could not have possibly gotten an easier lead in the GIII Bourbonette Oaks. The Pletcher trainee got her opening quarter in :25.24, good for a Moss Pace Figure of 44, or 18 points below par. There's no way she'll get that easy a trip this time, and the Bourbonette looks just as weak after the fact as it looked before it happened. Runner-up and stablemate Dancing Solo came back to run third at 3-2 in a Keeneland allowance, while third-place finisher Toxis finished two more slots back in the same heat. The rest of the Bourbonette also-rans didn't fare any better.
   Mamma Kimbo is much more dangerous than In Lingerie, but she shouldn't be the even-money or 6-5 shot that the Baffert faithful will make her. Her sprint debut was excellent and hard to argue with (101 Beyer), and while I wouldn't hold a seven-point Beyer regression in the GII Fantasy S. against her, she had everything her own way that day. It seems likely that the Oaklawn track was speed-favoring Apr. 11, as front-runners took half of the day's 10 events, including winners at 12-1 and 19-1. Mamma Kimbo got an uncontested lead through average splits in a merry-go-round type race, and simply found the line first. Runner-up Amie's Dini and third-place finisher Jemima's Pearl didn't do much to flatter the Fantasy in the GI Kentucky Oaks, as they checked in eighth and 10th, respectively. It's hard to take the decision not to run Mamma Kimbo in the Oaks herself as anything but a minor knock (granted, she does have two very fast works in the interim), and she's bred more like an eight-furlong horse than a nine-furlong one. She could very well get loose again and score at a short price, but she'll definitely be an underlay.
   Welcome Guest (Unbridled's Song) is the play both by default and on her own merits. The up-and-comer was second in the GIII Comely S. last out behind subsequent Oaks runner-up Broadway's Alibi, and she probably ran a bit better than it looks on paper. She was fourth in a six-horse field early off a pace that was below average and controlled by the even-money eventual winner, and she was forced to cover a lot of extra ground on the turn when making her move. The grey earned an 88 Beyer for her effort--probably not quite good high to win this--but there's reason to believe that that figure could have been higher. Without considering variants, etc., a quick look at the past numbers earned by Comely participants reveals something very telling. The figure that every single runner received represented a regression of three to 12 points from their previous figure. Broadway's Alibi, the only horse to have run back so far since the Comely, earned a 99 Beyer in the Oaks--a four-point improvement over what she got in the Comely under much better circumstances--and one point off the 100 top she earned two starts back. Welcome Guest probably ran more like something in the low 90s in the Comely without considering her somewhat disadvantageous trip. More distance should be another factor that helps put her into the winner's circle. Her second dam is GI Ashland S. winner Glitter Woman, making her dam a half-sister to Political Force, who happens to also be by Unbridled's Song. Political Force's signature win came in the 1 1/4-mile GI Suburban H. in 2007. Since the surrounding races are so wide-open, I'll single Welcome Guest in the pick four and hope to get some separation from those zeroing in on the chalk so that I can spread more in other legs.

GIII Pimlico Special - It's nice to see this race return to the Preakness weekend wagering menu, and while it may need a few years to regain its Grade I status officially, this is close to a Grade I-caliber line-up. Note that the Special, rather than the Black-Eyed Susan, makes up the first half of a daily double with the Preakness. That was definitely a good decision as this is a more competitive heat. Like in the Black-Eyed Susan, I'm against the shorter-priced runners, but in this case I don't see a strong reason to like one of the alternatives over the others.
   I've always been a fan of Alternation (Distorted Humor), but he's clearly a play against here. His three-straight wins at Oaklawn came with very advantageous set-ups and, while he took the GII Peter Pan S. last May at Belmont, it remains to be seen just how well and how consistently he will run outside of Hot Springs. Alternation came from off the pace to take the Essex H. Feb. 4 with an extremely hot pace in front of him (14 Moss points above par in the opening quarter), and he enjoyed very easy leads in both his Mar. 10 GIII Razorback H. and Apr. 14 GII Oaklawn H. scores. There's not much chance of an easy lead here, so I'll let Alternation beat me.
   I'm also against Mission Impazible (Unbridled's Song), but I might use him in the pick four defensively. His best races obviously make him plenty competitive, but he never wins. His career record is 17-3-7-2--that conjures up the dreaded "H" word a bit, doesn't it? He's also run some clunkers at short prices, and seems like a perpetual money burner. I'm not going to let him beat me in exotics, but I'm certain that his odds will be shorter than they should be.
   Now for the horses I'll be looking to beat the favorites with in post position order:
   When the entries for this race went up, I was expecting to love Toby's Corner (Bellamy Road). The GII General George H. that he was third in was at a distance shorter than what he prefers and has been flattered by subsequent results. It seemed at the time that Fair Grounds just had to be speed biased when last year's Wood winner was third from off the pace in the GII New Orleans H. Apr. 1, but outside of Nates Mineshaft's romp in that race and the improbable victory of 1000000-1 shot Hero of Order in the Louisiana Derby, the day's results offer little evidence that there was an obvious advantage to being on the lead. Tracks change and I certainly can't rule out the possibility of a bias during that part of the card completely, but I've gone from being very interested in Toby's Corner to simply using him based on some standard fundamentals. I could probably be enticed into a win bet, though, if he were to drift up to 8-1 somehow.
   Endorsement (Distorted Humor) seems to be making up for lost time since an injury forced the 2010 GII Sunland Derby to miss the Kentucky Derby and almost all of his 4-year-old season. He keeps getting better with every start since resurfacing in December, and while he enjoyed a nice drafting trip in the GIII Texas Mile last time, there's reason to believe he can keep moving forward--especially with more distance to work with.
   Hymn Book (Arch)'s merits are pretty obvious--he ran a very big race to take the GI Donn H. (besting Mission Impazible), and he was compromised by a slow pace in the Oaklawn H.
   Cherokee Artist (Cherokee Run) will probably be the longest-priced horse on my tickets, so I hope his connections opt for this spot over the Joseph French Memorial S. at Delaware Saturday. He was a pretty promising dirt horse way back when, but it seemed as though his best days were behind him during a long series of turf and synthetic tries. He's been better in three recent starts on the conventional stuff, and his local optional claiming romp Apr. 27 (103 Beyer) came with a premature move into a break-neck pace. He'll have to handle a giant step up in class, but stranger things have happened.
   Nehro (Mineshaft) seems way too slow this year, but he did improve on his first-out figure when hopelessly far back in the Oaklawn H. last time. He was fast enough last year, so I suppose there's no reason he can't cycle back up towards his top. A win would give trainer Steve Asmussen back-to-back Pimlico Specials... four years apart.

More Kentucky Derby Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

Be sure to also check out my Oaks thoughts as well as Steve Sherack and my Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet. Good luck at the windows this weekend!

GI Kentucky Derby - Much of the talk surrounding this year's GI Kentucky Derby has come down to the pace scenario, and rightly so. The relatively late addition of Trinniberg (Teuflesburg) added lots of fuel to the projected fire, and I'm in the majority who see the longshot's presence as a serious issue for several contenders. Trinniberg does not guarantee a Giacomo-type meltdown, but he certainly makes it a possibility. 
   There is little doubt that Bodemeister (Empire Maker) is the most talented runner in this field--his Beyers tower over his competition, and he seems to get even stronger the farther he runs. His pedigree screams 10 furlongs on both top and bottom, and his sheer dominance and the way he has reportedly trained give me no reason to fear his lack of 2-year-old foundation. The pace is the only thing that will beat him, so I'm playing this race horizontally to account for two possible scenarios. If the pace doesn't materialize or if Bodemeister rates effectively, he will win at a reasonably short price (better for those of us who got him at 22-1 in the third round of futures). But if he gets into a tussle early, all bets are off, and there's a very good chance that Hansen (Tapit) among others will also be compromised. The rest of the horses I'll use in the Pick 3s and 4s are mostly runners who would benefit from the second scenario. I'll also play trifectas based on the second scenario because that's the one that has the potential to yield giant pay-offs if a horse like Done Talking (Broken Vow) or Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit) gets into the number.

Done Talking      Four-Footed Fotos

   I've decided to stick with my original pick from way back in November and go with Done Talking on top. I know it sounds kind of crazy. On paper, he looks much, much too slow. But I think he's capable of running faster, and I know he's going to get the distance and be running late if the race falls apart. Done Talking is the prototypical grinder. He's never going to win by open lengths, and he seems to be a horse who requires a lot of rider encouragement to do his best. When he feels like it, he comes running late, but he'll never do more than he has to. That's probably not exactly what you want to see from your Derby horse, but it also might explain why his figures are so low and why they can improve to a level that is competitive if the set-up is right. I'm not investing too much on him in win money, but I'll take a shot with him at upwards of 50-1 and use him as an "A" in the Pick 4.

Dullahan    Reed Palmer

   My third main Pick 4 include and a horse who I will anchor in meltdown scenario trifectas is Dullahan (Even the Score). There just doesn't seem like much not to like about him. The half-brother to Derby winner Mine That Bird (Birdstone) runs as if more distance will suit him quite well and I'm not sold on the notion that he won't be as effective on dirt. His fourth-place finish in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile from much too far back was fine enough to show that he can handle the surface, and his very powerful GI Blue Grass S. victory showed he has improved from two to three. He was a horse early on who always gave the impression that he had more to give once he figured it out, so it's no surprise that the hulking chestnut has gotten better as time has gone on. He just fits the profile in so many ways, and I wonder if Dullahan ends up being the shorter-priced morning line horse who gets lost on the board a bit. It seems as if I've heard much more chatter about some of his competitors, and I'm not sure he has the attributes that capture the casual wagering public's attention in a race like the Derby. I'll be happy to see him drift up, and would consider a second win bet if he were to somehow float all the way up to 12-1 or higher.
   The second-tier win candidates I'll use as "Bs" or "Cs" in the Pick 4 are Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) and Gemologist (Tiznow). As I mentioned on the Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet, my original inclination was to dismiss Take Charge Indy as a horse who got an easy lead last time and who would be in trouble with hotter expected fractions in the Derby. But I've come to the realization that there's simply no way he's sent close to the early lead by Calvin Borel. I generally think jockeys are an irrelevant handicapping factor, but when it comes to Churchill Downs and particularly the Derby, Borel does seem to have a tactical edge. He's bound to take money due to Borel's presence, but I wonder how much room mathematically there is for Take Charge Indy's odds to go down considering how some other contenders figure to be bet. I could never bet him to win, but I'm not going to get beat by a Borel-ridden son of A.P. Indy in a 10-furlong race. I'll also use Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway), who has done little wrong in his career. My main concern with him is that he'll find someone a little bit better. I thought his win over Bodemeister in the GII San Felipe was in part a product of a fairly quick pace and I'm not crazy about the figure regression he showed when taking off blinkers (which will stay off in the Derby). But his best races fit well enough and his consistency is an attribute we rarely see these days. Gemologist is hard to argue with on paper, but the way he has been handled this year makes me slightly hesitant. I'm also not sure where he'll find himself early. If he's in a stalking spot and the pace is less than suicidal, he's not beating Bodemeister. Some minor knocks have me thinking he's an underlay at 6-1 or so, but he's too obvious to toss completely.
   I discussed why I wasn't sold on Union Rags (Dixie Union) before the GI Florida Derby here, and nothing about his much-talked-about trip in that race did anything to change my mind. I suppose he could have moved sooner, but he saved all the ground and should've made a bigger late run despite the slow pace if he was really deserving of favoritism here. There's an idea floating around that he doesn't like being inside of horses, and the four post won't help matters if there's any validity to that notion. I still say he's too slow to be favored or close in odds to Bodemeister, and I'll let him beat me.

GI Turf Classic S. - The flashy Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic) looks to be in some trouble as he tries to defend his title. He'll have to contend with Little Mike (Spanish Steps) and Turbo Compressor (Halo's Image) early, and it seems likely to be the undoing of all three speedsters. The most interesting closer from a value perspective could be Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer). He ran a huge and somewhat surprising race to be third in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Turf, and the stretch-out to nine furlongs from the mile of the GIII Appleton should suit him well--he might be better going even longer, but he took the GI Blue Grass S. last semester over Polytrack.

GI Humana Distaff S. - There are an awful lot of closers in here for a seven-furlong race, so I'll take a small shot with huge price Mildly Offensive (Sharp Humor). She dueled through quick splits last time when taking an Apr. 5 Santa Anita allowance and the Moss Pace Figures say she'll get the lead if she wants it. Her recent Beyers are woefully slow, but she did earn a 98 in the slop last year. Maybe that surface moved her up, but at 20-1, I'm willing to gamble that she can control things early and cycle back up towards her top.

GII Distaff Turf Mile S. - I really, really like Hungry Island (More Than Ready) in this spot. She never got the credit she deserved last year when stringing together four victories, and she comes off a pair of troubled trips behind Marketing Mix (Medaglia d'Oro). The Emory Hamilton homebred was shut off and stymied on the inside when full of run in the Nov. 12 GII Miss Revere S. over this course, but got through late to be third. She had the opposite problem in a Keeneland allowance allowance Apr. 11 when putting in a sustained rally from what the chart caller labeled as seven wide. According to Trakus data, Hungry Island lost 1 3/4 lengths worth of ground to winner Marketing Mix, who beat her by 1 1/4 lengths. That doesn't factor in the pace dynamics--Marketing Mix was up close to reasonable fractions whereas Hungry Island came from far back. Hungry Island should have more to run at this time, and I'll look for her to come flying late, probably with Aruna (Mr. Greeley) alongside.

GII Churchill Downs S. - He won't be any sort of price, but Shackleford (Forestry) will be tough to beat. I've seen pictures from the GI Carter H. that show that he was bleeding pretty noticeably, which might explain why he couldn't hold on after setting easy fractions. He still earned a very solid 106 Beyer for his third-place run and likes the track--chalky, but rightfully so.

Sophomore Spotlight: In-Depth Kentucky Oaks Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

This year's GI Kentucky Oaks came up very evenly matched, and looks to be a great betting race. See below for my take on each runner.

1 - On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken) - It's hard to argue with what she has done so far in her career... Had pretty easy trips in her two local wins last year, but has proven more than just dressed up this term... She covered a ton of ground when third against the boys in the Smarty Jones S., and overcame another wide trip to annex the GIII Honeybee S. last time with a field's-best last out Beyer of 99... Sire Smoke Glacken doesn't inspire great confidence at nine furlongs, but her dam and siblings were all routers, including GII Fantasy S. winner and 2007 Oaks show horse High Heels (E Dubai)... Not concerned about the lack of a recent prep considering the morning reports on her; she's the race's most likely winner.

2 - Grace Hall (Empire Maker) - Not crazy about her figure progression from two to three--ran an 85 Beyer when winning last year's GI Spinaway S., but has only run a 90 and 89 in her two races in 2012... Distance is in her favor, but it's really hard to take favorite's odds on her considering how much lower her Beyers are than some other runners... Playing against.

3 - Summer Applause (Harlan's Holiday) - One of the toughest horses in the race to figure out... Her GIII Rachel Alexandra win was solid--came back fast enough (96) and was not the product of an easy trip... But how did she not get by Believe You Can in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks after those super-fast fractions (first quarter was 21 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale)? The track wasn't speed favoring that day or anything... Will use defensively on some tickets because she fits the profile and will be a big price, but hard to feature her more off of that last race.

4 - Eden's Moon (Malibu Moon) - Figures to be one of many pace casualties in this very speed-laden group... Got an easy lead in the GI Las Virgenes and had no obvious excuses last time when third behind Cal-bred Willa B Awesome in the GI Santa Anita Oaks... The Oaks winner came back to win last Saturday at Hollywood, but barely and with a 73 Beyer against state-breds... Not interested.

5 - Hard Not to Like (Hard Spun) - Has the same last-out figure as Grace Hall, but will be upwards of 10 times the price... The GI Ashland was a merry-go-round type race over a speed-favoring surface, but she managed to run well to be a close second... Showed signs of being a good one last year on the turf, but obviously dirt is the question... Dam Like A Gem (Tactical Cat) won sprinting on the dirt and was stakes-placed at 8 1/2 furlongs on the conventional stuff. Based at Woodbine when they switched over to Polytrack, she was a SW at 10 furlongs on that surface as well as turf... Hard Not to Like has had enough works over the dirt that you'd think they would know how she handles it, so inclined to think it won't be an issue... Trainer Gail Cox boasts an 18% win rate and $2.72 ROI second off the bench, according to DRF Formulator... Main longshot play.

6 - Broadway's Alibi (Vindication) - GII Forward Gal romp seemed slop aided, and she enjoyed a very easy lead in the GIII Comely S. last time... Seems destined to be caught up in the fast pace, and not crazy about how her connections were noncommittal about running here... Playing against.

7 - Sacristy (Pulpit) - Has never gone beyond seven furlongs and feels like she's in here because Peachtree's two big guns aren't... Can't use.

8 - Jemima's Pearl (Distorted Humor) - Thought her U.S. debut at Santa Anita for Simon Callaghan was solid visually despite being aided by a fast pace... You could make the argument that Oaklawn was speed favoring when she was third in the GII Fantasy, and she came home fastest... Worked in company with Bodemeister--while she obviously wasn't going to outwork him, can't be the worst sign in the world that Baffert paired them up... Very interesting mid-price type.

9 - Believe You Can (Proud Citizen) - She ran very valiantly to hold on in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks last time, but she's going to have to deal with another fast pace here with more distance and better competition... Seems she's best when allowed to show speed, but that will prove her undoing.

10 - And Why Not (Street Cry {Ire}) - She really doesn't seem to fit with these on paper--her one even semi-fast race came due to an extra fast pace in the GII Pocahantas... She does have an exceptional pedigree for this, though, and it's interesting that Matz opts to take a shot... Bullet work Apr. 28 says she's doing well... Her morning line price of 15-1 is an underlay, but she should drift from there... Will use her underneath and possibly on top as a back-up simply because she'll be running late if she's on her game.

11 - Karlovy Vary (Dynaformer) - Upset the GI Ashland thanks to a bias, and doesn't seem likely to take to the dirt... Not much to like.

12 - Colonial Empress (Empire Maker) - Can't see her breaking her maiden in this spot...

13 - Amie's Dini (Bandini) - Pace won't do her any favors and On Fire Baby proved much better than her two back in the Honeybee... Was only second in the Fantasy because of how it was run... Passing.

14 - Yara (Put It Back) - Pulled off quite the shocker in the GII Davona Dale when besting Grace Hall at 64-1, but came back to earth in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks... That one good race is definitely the exception rather than the rule, so hard to expect anything competitive from her, especially going this far.

AE - Oaks Lily (Badge of Silver) - Incredibly slow. . . Fair odds might be in the 1000s-1.

Verdict: My main uses in the pick 4 and Oaks/Derby Double will be On Fire Baby, Hard Not to Like and Jemima's Pearl... Will use a little Summer Applause and a tiny bit of And Why Not somewhere... Also playing Hard Not to Like at 15-1+, boxing my top three in exactas and playing some sort of trifecta key with my top five.

Sophomore Spotlight: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GI BLUE GRASS S. - While favorite Hansen (Tapit) showed somewhat of a new dimension in rating a bit last time when winning the GIII Gotham S., he's very vulnerable here. There's a ton of early speed signed on, and even if he's not on the lead, he'll be close enough to it that it should take its toll--especially at a distance farther than the champ has ever gone. I like two horses to upset the speedy grey--Dullahan (Even the Score) and Holy Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}). I'll use both in Pk3s and 4s, will box them in the exacta and will bet one to win (9-2 seems fair on Dullahan; 15-1 on Holy Candy).

Dullahan works up a storm at Keeneland
Coady Photography

   Dullahan seemed talented, but a bit lost in the first few starts of his career before the light came on and the half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird graduated with a very solid off-the-pace effort in this venue's GI Breeders' Futurity S. in October. His connections opted for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile over the the turf equivalent, and Dullahan did little to undermine that decision. He was simply too far out of things early, but came running at the end to be fourth, beaten six lengths by the front-running Hansen. The chestnut resurfaced in the Mar. 11 GIII Palm Beach S. over nine furlongs of the Gulfstream sod, and came up a length short of fellow Blue Grass entrant Howe Great (Hat Trick {Jpn} while getting the worst of it. Whereas Howe Great saved ground while close up to a reasonable pace, Dullahan was at his usual spot towards the back of a compact field. He was forced to go very wide at the head of the lane while the eventual winner hugged the rail, and Dullahan just couldn't overcome the added real estate he was forced to cover. According to Trakus data, Dullahan traveled 44 feet more than Howe Great, which translates to more than five lengths. Dullahan did reportedly pop a splint in the interim, but it hasn't seemed to bother the Dale Romans trainee--he fired a five-furlong bullet in a super-quick :57 2/5 over the Poly here last Sunday. The Keeneland clocker comment said of the spin: "was impressive, loves the surface, out in 1:10 2/5." That proven affinity for Keeneland's somewhat quirky main track and a hot expected pace make Dullahan the one to beat.
   I already made the case for Holy Candy in my analysis of the GI Santa Anita Derby last week (click here), and nothing has changed. The pace should be more to the recent graduate's liking in this spot than it would have been last week, and while I'd be betting with both fists if Holy Candy were to go off near his morning line price of 30-1, I'm not quite expecting such a generous number. He'll still offer significant value, though, and should be moving well late along with Dullahan.

Bodemeister (inside) tries to hold off
Creative Cause   Benoit Photo

GI ARKANSAS DERBY - He'll probably go favored, but I expect Bodemeister (Empire Maker) to score here and stamp himself as a major Derby contender. When horses break their maidens with very high Beyer Speed Figures, like the 101 Bodemeister earned for his second-out 9 1/4-length romp, they almost always regress in their subsequent starts. But the Zayat colorbearer paired that 101 next out, nearly denying GI Santa Anita Derby runner-up Creative Cause in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 10. He pressed a hot pace that day (nine points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale) and did very well to hang on as much as he did (despite drifting out a bit) considering his lack of seasoning. Another start under his belt and more time to develop could lay the foundation for a figure progression, and any step forward from a 101 would make Bodemeister extremely tough to beat. The biggest question is whether or not he can rate, or at least harness his speed while setting the pace. I'm confident that he can and will. Bodemeister sheds blinkers for this, gets a rider switch to the patient Mike Smith and seems as if he has been getting some schooling in the mornings. Check out this HRTV video of his four-furlong spin at Santa Anita in :46 4/5 Mar. 23--he was able to relax and finish very well from behind a group of horses. I still say he's one of the most promising and best-bred for the Derby distance of this sophomore crop, and hope my future wager on Bodemeister at 22-1 will look like value after Saturday.
   The only horse I'll use as a back-up is Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones), who couldn't have made a more unnecessarily wide, premature move after enjoying a perfect spot behind a pair of dueling leaders in the GIII Sunland Park Derby Mar. 25. He takes off the blinkers and gets a rider switch off that runner-up finish.

Sophomore Spotlight: Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GI Wood Memorial S. - I know he has become a total wise guy horse, but I just can't get past Street Life (Street Sense)--his last two late runs were incredibly impressive, and he might actually get some real pace this time. Performances like the dark bay's second-out maiden breaker (video) often turn out to be optical illusions. For whatever reason, horses that come from impossibly far back like that usually fail to live up to the hype in subsequent starts (perhaps because oftentimes their moves are accentuated by their slow-moving competition). Two horses have returned from that Feb. 11 contest to break their maidens with new Beyer Speed Figure tops, however, and Street Life came back to turn in an even more impressive effort in his first stakes try.

   Despite earning only a 70 Beyer when donning cap and gown, Street Life was no secret in the Big A's 8 1/2-furlong Broad Brush S. over the inner track Mar. 17--he was backed down to 9-5, and proved it was for good reason. Showing more early interest than he had the time before (perhaps simply because of the pace dynamics), Street Life tracked from mid-pack as Copy My Swagger (Easing Along) carved out absolutely glacial fractions. The frontrunner--if you can call what he was doing early "running"--posted an opening quarter in :25.35, or 21 points below par on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Street Life didn't appear to be traveling particularly smoothly as the field entered the far turn, and it seemed that he would not live up to the hype or the 'TDN Rising Star' tag bestowed upon him the time before. But he started to come alive at the head of the lane under some enthusiastic encouragement from Junior Alvarado and, despite failing to switch leads for most of the stretch run, blew by the still straight-and-strong Copy My Swagger to win it in hand by a half-length (video). This was clearly not a case of a tiring front-runner getting caught. The runner-up came home second-fastest in the field (:31.61), but still a full second slower than Street Life (:30.59). The 85 Beyer Street Life ran fits well enough with this bunch on its own, but certainly does not accurately reflect his capabilities considering the slow pace he overcame.

Street Life            Coglianese Photo

   While this field as a whole does not possess particularly fast early pace figures, a number of runners have a tendency to travel on or near the lead. This is key to set up Street Life's late kick, and also to soften up formidable favorite Gemologist (Tiznow). Trainer Mike Hushion recently said that the undefeated, stretching-out The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam) would be sent hard early, so he should ensure solid enough splits if Casual Trick (Bernardini), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect), Teeth of the Dog (Bluegrass Cat) and/or Gemologist show the same sort of early interest that they have in recent starts. More real estate can only help Street Life's cause (more because of his pedigree than his running style), and he still has ample room to mature mentally. I'm expecting another big step forward, and one that could very well propel Street Life towards the top of the list of Derby contenders.

GI Santa Anita Derby - I was kind of hoping Bodemeister (Empire Maker) would return here for a rematch with Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway), as I think that runner's set to explode, but I guess we'll have to wait a week to see him run. The main knock on Creative Cause here might be that trainer Mike Harrington elects to take off the blinkers for the first time in the favorite's career despite the fact that he ran the fastest race of his life last out with the hood on. I guess this is a better time to experiment than in a month from now, but it could leave Creative Cause slightly vulnerable at a short number. I'm going to key off of two horses who should be decent prices here in Pick 3s or 4s, and who would benefit from somewhat opposite pace scenarios. It is not readily apparent to me how the pace of this race will play out, so I'll use an overlay for each possibility.

Holy Candy         Benoit Photo

   First up is Holy Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}). I must admit that I didn't really see what all the hype surrounding this horse was about before he broke his maiden last time. He had faced solid competition that had gone on to bigger and better once outside the maiden ranks, but horses who consistently run second just don't interest me. Backed down to 1-2 last time going a mile here Mar. 23, the powerful grey finally put it all together. In a race strikingly similar to Street Life's Broad Brush described above, Holy Candy tracked from fourth of five behind a pacesetter who got his opening quarter in :24.69. It's surprising that a horse at any level could go that slow early over Santa Anita's lightning-quick strip, but it actually happened--good for a 48 Moss Pace Figure, 28 points below par. The lack of any sort of set-up didn't seem to bother Holy Candy, though, as he blew by the decent Bob Baffert-trained frontrunner Eaton Hall (El Corredor) for a 3 1/2-length success (video). Holy Candy got his final quarter in a head-turning :23.05--even at Santa Anita, that's fast. Holy Candy's 84 Beyer doesn't do his last performance justice, and while I think he might be better off in next week's GI Blue Grass S. (trainer John Sadler says he won't make a decision until Saturday morning), he has the raw talent to demand inclusion in this admittedly steep jump in class.
   Longview Drive (Pulpit), a full-brother to the accomplished Pyro, could upset this bunch at a solid price, possibly on the front-end. The $175,000 KEESEP yearling has fallen through the cracks a bit despite completing the trifecta in one of the stronger Derby preps we've seen all season, the GIII Sham S. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after setting an above average pace, and was only beaten a length by the injured but promising Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat) and the very accomplished Secret Circle (Eddington). That effort garnered the chestnut favoritism in what ultimately proved the weaker of two divisions of the GIII Southwest S., but a nightmare trip relegated Longview Drive to sixth. Off a half-step slow, he was unable to make the lead, and was forced to rate from a tight spot along the inside, which he clearly was not happy about. Longview Drive was then taken to the far outside for clear sailing, covering far more ground than any other rival before ultimately flattening out. He'll get get original pilot Russell Baze back in the saddle, and should give a much better account of himself this time at double digit odds.

Done Talking         Horsephotos

GIII Illinois Derby - Considering how much I've touted him, I've got no choice but to go back to Done Talking (Broken Vow) here. He's not my top choice for the Kentucky Derby anymore, but I do think that all the positives I've pointed out about him in past posts still ring true if you simply toss his complete non-effort in the GIII Gotham S. last time. It was his first start back off a lay-off that was extended due to illness and he did get bumped a bit going into the first turn. The homebred has since returned with a pair of upbeat drills, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Laurel Mar. 24, so there's reason to believe he's doing well. It's also positive to see his connections opt to take a shot and ship out to Chicago from Maryland. The 13 post isn't ideal, but it's not as if Done Talking will be gunned early for position. A lack of pace would prove a bigger obstacle for the bay, but large fields tend to guarantee solid enough splits and Morgan's Guerilla (Ghostzapper) possesses the type of speed that will probably be hard to harness. He posted very fast splits when breaking his maiden on the Gotham undercard Mar. 3, and should be winging it early with others in tow. There's no reason why Done Talking can't bounce back and be the one to seize command late at a price that could be upwards of 20-1.

Sophomore Spotlight: Florida and Louisiana Derbies

GI FLORIDA DERBY - Honestly, I'm not sure how great of a betting race this is, but it might be an important event in how it sets up betting for the Derby. It's very likely that one of the three obvious horses--Union Rags (Dixie Union), El Padrino (Pulpit) or Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy)--will win. I'll probably use all three in the Pick 4 and simply hope to survive, but certainly wouldn't mind if the Union Rags gets it done as the favorite, even if it might deflate any potential exotic pay-offs.
   Unless Union Rags shows something he hasn't so far, I'm very eager to bet against him in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to run faster than a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, but he's the consensus Derby favorite because his wins have been visually impressive and he had an admittedly brutal trip in the Breeders' Cup. He's all the way down to 3-1 on the morning line for the Derby Future Wager Pool 3 despite the fact that there have been more than 30 performances in 2012 by 3-year-olds that earned higher figures than the 95 Union Rags received for the GII Fountain of Youth S. last time. It's also not a great sign that the bay has yet to receive a figure faster than what he earned for his very solid 7 1/4-length success in the GII Saratoga Special last August. Horses' speed figures should improve significantly from age two to three unless they've reached their ceiling. Add to that a pedigree that doesn't guarantee success at Classic distances (his lone full-sibling was a decidedly better sprinter), and I'm happy to lay a much-too-short price on Union Rags come May 5--especially if the outcome of the Florida Derby deflates his odds further.
   A win play against Union Rags might be warranted here, but I'd need something like three times the price of the favorite to bet El Padrino and six or seven times the price on Take Charge Indy. I don't expect the necessary price on El Padrino due to the Pletcher factor (Discreet Dancer was actually odds-on over Union Rags in the FOY). While Take Charge Indy moved too soon and probably ran a better race than El Padrino when they faced off in an allowance here Jan. 29, he has been handled with a lack of confidence this Triple Crown season that makes me hesitant to back him without the right reward for the added risk.

Union Rags                                  A Coglianese

GII LOUISIANA DERBY - There's a good chance that Cigar Street (Street Sense) is in a different class than the rest of these horses, but there's an even better chance that he'll be forced to work hard to prove it. Enough confirmed speed is signed on here, even with the defection of Arm Force (Tiznow) (my original pick), to test the recent maiden romper. Reformed claimer Comisky's Humor (Sharp Humor) exits sprints in which he set the pace, so there's no doubt he'll be sent. Hero of Order (Sharp Humor) set fairly moderate splits in the GII Risen Star with Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen) in tow (that slow pace is the reason I'm against Mark Valeski), but he was part of an extremely hot pace in the GIII Lecomte S., so I'd expect Hero of Order to add plenty more fuel to the fire. I certainly won't be shocked if Cigar Street ends up cruising here from either on or off the pace, but he was tugging pretty hard when he romped last time and he's clearly not the type to take at a short price.   
   Since nobody else from the GII Risen Star looks particularly interesting based on trip analysis, I'll look to key off of two out-of-town closers. Despite Dale Romans's past success with horses switching from turf to dirt, I wasn't expecting much from Finnegans Wake (Powerscourt {GB}) in the Gotham, but the very late runner overcame a slow-to-average pace to complete the trifecta in that event at 25-1. He needs to improve significantly from a speed figure standpoint to contend in this spot, but he's still lightly raced and more ground should be to his liking. His pedigree screams very long distances on the turf, but since he took to the dirt reasonably well last time, maybe distance considerations will outweigh surface ones in this case. It's also worth noting that two horses he has been competitive with on the turf--News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) and Golden Ticket (Speightstown)--have run much faster on the dirt recently. The former, another example of Romans's turf-to-dirt prowess, was second in the Fountain of Youth with an 88 Beyer, compared to the 79 he earned when a length in front of Finnegans Wake in a Gulfstream optional claimer Feb. 5. Golden Ticket almost won the GII Tampa Bay Derby with an 87 versus the 73 he ran when second beaten two lengths by Finnegans Wake in a Gulfstream maiden Jan. 1. Don't be surprised if Finnegans Wake runs by them all at the end of that long Fair Grounds stretch at a nice price.
   I'll also use Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit), who has been running reasonably well out in California, including a close runner-up effort in the GI CashCall Futurity late last season. His last two tries came over the Santa Anita dirt, which probably hasn't helped his cause, and the California horses appear to be a bit stronger in 2012 than in recent years.


Cigar Street                                 Lou Hodges



Sophomore Spotlight: Spiral and Sunland Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GIII SPIRAL S. - This race looks like a good spot for a longshot, and Stealcase (Lawyer Ron) fits the bill. The most interesting thing about him is a bit abstract, but bear with me. Stealcase, a $35,000 KEENOV weanling who RNA'd for the same price as an OBSAUG yearling, entered his Saratoga debut with a ton of hype. He had turned in an excellent eighth in :10 flat at OBSMAR (VIDEO), garnering a winning bid of $320,000, and everyone who had seen the breeze was expecting big things in his unveiling. The chestnut was backed down to 9-5 favoritism for that July 30 debut, but was a dull fourth. He filled the same slot in a key heat at Gulfstream Dec. 24--again as the favorite--and graduated on the stretch-out Jan. 19 with a 79 Beyer. He was a decent sixth last time in the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 3 after breaking poorly, but still hasn't come close to living up to his early reputation. There's a very good reason why Stealcase might finally live up to the hype here at Turfway, though. It's important to note that his breeze at OBS was over the synthetic Safetrack surface, and this will be the first time in his racing career that he's been on another all-weather track. Doesn't it seem logical that maybe he was a synthetic horse all along? There's at least a decent chance that that's the case, and considering he doesn't need to move up too much as it is to contend with this bunch, you're certainly getting the right price to hold that opinion. Half of Stealcase's lone sibling's wins have come on synthetic surfaces, which certainly doesn't hurt his cause either. Trainer Mark Casse's success adding blinkers is another positive angle. According to DRF Formulator, the conditioner boasts a gaudy $3.67 ROI over the past season (5/21 24%) in the 'blinkers on' category, which includes Prospective's recent victory in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Prospective moved up eight Beyer points from his top with the hood--a similar improvement from Stealcase may very well win this, but if he runs on this surface like he did at OBS, he could perform even better.

GIII SUNLAND DERBY - The two main out of town favorites--Castaway (Street Sense) and Ender Knievel (Distorted Humor)--have both been flattered by slow paces in their recent races, and could pose problems for each other here. Castaway also suffers a bit from the weak-seeming running of last weekend's GII Rebel S., which featured three runners who finished behind him in the slower division of the GIIII Southwest S. as well as his stablemate Secret Circle, who won the faster division of the Southwest, but ran the slowest Beyer of his career (92) in winning the Rebel. Bob Baffert's second stringer Stirred Up (Lemon Drop Kid) seems like a logical alternative, but his maiden-breaking tally Mar. 3 was aided by a very fast pace set-up and featured a slow finish. Much-hyped Holy Candy came up a neck short of Stirred Up last time, and was coming off a 2 1/4-length defeat at the hands of Castaway, so while Castaway will be overbet here, he still probably holds an edge over his stablemate. With three of eight horses already eliminated, and with the assumption that Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy) is a synthetic/turf horse, we're pretty much left with Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones) by default. Luckily, that runner is worthy of consideration on his own merits as well. The bay is two-for-two over this surface, with a 97 Beyer-earning 11 3/4-length romp in the 6 1/2-furlong Allison Futurity Dec. 30, and a solid 1 3/4-length success last time in the 8 1/2-furlong Borderland Derby Feb. 25, for which he earned an 88 Beyer. He was a well-beaten fifth (promoted to fourth) in the GII Bob Lewis S. at Santa Anita in between those wins, but Isn't He Clever found himself on the lead that day (somewhere he doesn't need to be) and was facing tougher competition. Since his career-best performance came sprinting, it's possible that distance could prove an issue, but Isn't He Clever is a half to a stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles on the turf. There's plenty to like about this local hope, and the presence of some bigger names guarantees a somewhat decent price.

Sophomore Spotlight: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby and Swale

--Brian DiDonato

GII Tampa Bay Derby - Cozzetti (Cozzene) fits an angle that has proven so potent over the past few years that he's a value play on it alone. Trainer Dale Romans is a master at taking turfy-looking horses and running them on the dirt to win or, more commonly, hit the board at big prices in graded stakes. Over the past five years, according to DRF Formulator, the conditioner is 6-for-32 (19%) with a $2.97 ROI switching from turf or synthetic (which I tend to treat interchangeably) to dirt in graded events. Those runners have hit the board a very solid 38% of the time, and include the likes of Derby third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado and Preakness runner-up First Dude. More recent examples are GII Remsen S. winner O'Prado Again (El Prado {Ire}) (7-1), GII Fountain of Youth S. runner-up News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) (27-1) and GIII Gotham S. third-place finisher Finnegan's Wake (Powerscourt {GB}) (25-1). Cozzetti did break his maiden in the Churchill Downs slop and he has worked very quickly on the dirt at Gulfstream, but even if he hadn't, he'd be worth a long look purely because of the stats.

GIII Swale S. - While it seems like every favorite I've tried to go against this Triple Crown trail gets the job done at a deflated number, I'll keep at it and look to beat the two favorites here in horizontal wagers with a pair of alternatives. First in regards to the chalk--the connections of both Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie) and Motor City (Street Sense) have altered their charges' respective paths several times, calling into question the condition of both runners. It would be no surprise if either horse needed a race before showing up with their best. There also looms the possibility of a fresh Ever So Lucky getting caught up in a pace duel with Trinniberg (Teuflesberg) and Hello Prince (Halo's Image), and Motor City is better-suited to routes.
   Impressive maiden breakers Good Morning Diva (Lion Heart) and Bahamian Squall (Gone West) both possess the upside to pull off minor upsets. The former was fourth on debut in one of the hottest maiden races of the meet Jan. 5--four also-rans, including the deceptively named Good Morning Diva have returned to win, and another runner finished second next out. Good Morning Diva subsequently earned his diploma by 3 1/4 lengths going this distance in the slop Feb. 11, posting a field-best 87 Beyer Figure with a professional three-wide stalking score (video). Heavily backed runner-up Morgan's Guerrilla (Ghostzapper) returned to score at Aqueduct on the Gotham undercard after setting a blistering pace. The fact that Good Morning Diva's win came in the slop is of minor concern, but two of his dam's worst career performances came over ground with moisture in it, so the evidence doesn't suggest that he simply relished the going.
   Bahamian Squall only earned a 76 Beyer for his first-out win Feb. 5, but he did it relatively professionally (despite some issues with lead changes) from off the pace and leveled off nicely late (video). He has also been flattered by his competition, as runner-up Closerwalk (Street Sense) posted an 86 Beyer in victory here last Saturday. Bahamian Squall is a half-brother to the sometimes very fast Apriority (Grand Slam), who has displayed a particular affinity for Gulfstream. Trainer David Fawkes must think highly of Bahamian Squall, as this is only the second time in the past five seasons that he has run a horse in a graded stake off a debut win.

GII San Felipe S. - Truthfully, I'm not particularly interested in this race from a betting perspective, but I'll be watching closely to see how the two Empire Makers do, as both are high on my list of Derby horses. I advocated for using Empire Way last time in the GII Bob Lewis on the grounds that he seemed to be improving with every start and that he had an action that suggested dirt would be his preferred surface, and he took another step forward to be second at 11-1 with a 91 Beyer. He's hard to invest too much on in this spot because his style is not best for Santa Anita's incredibly quick main track and he may come up a bit short once again, but if he were to stick around his 6-1 morning line or drift at all he might be worth some win money. Either way, the full-brother to Royal Delta is one to keep an eye on as the distances get longer and the venue changes.
   Bodemeister's odds will be too short to play, but he has every right to announce himself a major Derby force. The bay couldn't have been much more impressive when stretched out to a mile here Feb. 11, as he controlled the pace before exploding in the lane under little encouragement to romp by 9 1/4 lengths with a gaudy (in this era) 101 Beyer (video). Bodemeister covered his final quarter in a very fast (not just for Santa Anita) :23.73, and third-place finisher and stablemate Stirred Up (Lemon Drop Kid) returned a winner last week. Bodemeister's pedigree screams Classic distances. His dam Untouched Talent (Storm Cat) was a SW and GSP sprinter and GSP router at two, but she was out of a MGSW turf router by A.P. Indy. Bodemeister's third dam was also a stakes-winning router, this time by major stamina influence Roberto; his fourth dam was a GSP router by Nijinsky II. By a Belmont winner with a dam side that goes Storm Cat to A.P. Indy to Roberto to Nijinsky--if that's not a pedigree for Classics, I'm not sure what is.

Sophomore Spotlight: Gotham Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

This race clearly goes through Hansen (Tapit), but you have to think that with a large field and a few horses who have shown speed in the past that he won’t be allowed to waltz along on the front end on a track that should be wet. King and Crusader (Lion Heart) may hold the key to the race, then, because he is a speedy sprinter/miler who will undoubtedly pester the defending champ as long as he lines up and breaks reasonably well. While Hansen loses the blinkers for this, he’s not all of a sudden going to become Silky Sullivan--he’ll be on or pressing the pace and he probably won’t be alone.

I’m hoping for a hot pace, as the Gotham marks the return of my current Derby horse--Done Talking (Broken Vow). I already laid out his merits a while back here, and while I’ve seen some impressive performances in the interim that have caught my eye, I’m still sticking with Done Talking as my number one for the time being.

That he’s been off a while due to an illness is less than optimal, but he’s made up for lost time with a string of long-distance works at Laurel and trainer Hamilton Smith appears to be pleased with how his charge is doing. The conditioner has had decent enough recent success with horses coming off similar breaks over the past year, posting a $2.61 ROI with three wins from 19 tries.

The most flattering development for Done Talking has been subsequent performances turned in by El Padrino (Pulpit), who finished a head in front of Done Talking in the Remsen with a significantly better trip (closer to a very slow pace). This year, El Padrino has run a 100 Beyer (up from a 79 in the Remsen) to take a tough Gulfstream allowance Jan. 29, and then he scored at 4-5 in last weekend’s GII Risen Star S. with a 98 Beyer.

El Padrino isn’t the only runner to flatter the form of the Remsen, despite the top two finishers having not returned yet. Fifth-place finisher Our Entourage (Street Cry {Ire}) took a turfy optional claimer in Florida with an 85 Beyer Feb. 25; seventh-place finisher Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy) was a solid second behind Alpha (Bernardini) in the Jan. 7 Count Fleet S. here with an 81 Beyer; and eighth-place finisher Speightscity (Speightstown) came back to take an allowance before, most recently, earning an 85 Beyer for a runner-up effort in the GIII Withers S. Feb. 4. Between the subsequent Beyers earned by Remsen also-rans, his trip in that race and the time off to develop, it’s very likely that Done Talking is capable of running much faster on the Beyer scale than he did last year.

My biggest concern, despite the pace not materializing, could be the distance (I’m not worried about a wet track--Done Talking has a 412 Tomlinson rating and plenty of runners in his family have done well in the slop). He has won twice going shorter than this, but the Remsen was nine furlongs and he seems like the type who will always do better with more ground.

At worst, I’m expecting a late-running third or fourth that sets him up for better going forward. At best, I’m expecting Done Talking to blow by the field late at double digit odds. Since a victory for Done Talking will depend on Hansen being softened up, in addition to a win bet I’ll also play some exactas with Done Talking and other closers--namely Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect) (who may or may not be a closer), Suns Out Guns Out (Empire Maker) and Stealcase (Lawyer Ron).

Done Talking works at Laurel last Saturday
Horsephotos

Sophomore Spotlight: Risen Star and Fountain of Youth Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GII Risen Star S. - El Padrino (Pulpit) is certainly the horse to beat here. The 100 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his optional claiming score last out at Gulfstream Jan. 29 towers over this bunch--nobody else in the field has ever even broken 90. He’s hard to go against, and I certainly wouldn’t invest much trying to beat him, but there are a few reasons why he might not run as well as he did at Gulfstream. For starters, his race in Florida came on a track with moisture in it, and his Beyer represented a 21-point improvement to a new top. The sharp figure increase could be attributed partly to the surface, and those who subscribe to the bounce theory could certainly make a case for an expected regression. Also, while conditioner Todd Pletcher has been on an other-worldly tear at Gulfstream again this year, there have been past instances when Pletcher horses don’t run as well in subsequent efforts outside of the Sunshine State. El Padrino’s a solid and deserving favorite, but he’s far from invincible.
   If someone’s going to take down the heavy favorite, I’m betting it’s Shared Property (Scat Daddy). While last term’s GIII Arlington-Washington Futurity winner was narrowly beaten by both Mr. Bowling (Istan) and Z Dager (Mizzen Mast) in the G3 Lecomte S. here last time Jan. 21, he had by far the toughest trip of the three (video). He was parked out extremely wide on both turns, while the one-two finishers each saved significantly more ground. Shared Property looked like he still might run on by in the long Fair Grounds stretch, but he hung a bit--perhaps because he was so far out in the track and couldn’t see Mr. Bowling and Z Dager battling inside him. Shared Property’s previous company lines also bolster his form--he beat GIII Iroquois S. winner Motor City (Street Sense) to break his maiden at Ellis, and bested Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy) at Arlington. The latter gave El Padrino a run for his money last time, coming up two lengths short with a 96 Beyer despite moving a bit too soon. While El Padrino’s a very likely winner of the Risen Star, Shared Property will still offer value at around 6-1 or better.

GII Fountain of Youth S. - There seem to be enough reasons to go against both Union Rags (Dixie Union) and Algorithms (Bernardini) here. The former was a very good, precocious 2-year-old, but he shouldn’t be given the benefit of the doubt that he has trained on at three. Obviously, if he has improved since he was last seen, he’ll be hard to handle. But at a low number, you have to let him beat you. Algorithms has done nothing wrong in three starts so far, but his five-length, 105 Beyer-earning romp in the sloppy GIII Holy Bull S. seems a bit inflated. He’s from a female family that loves mud, and Consortium (Bernardini)’s last-place finish in that race didn’t exactly flatter the form of their previous showdown. 
   It would have been hard to imagine Discreet Dancer (Discreet Cat) ever going off as a relative overlay in any race for the rest of his career after his first two head-turners, but he should be a decent enough price in this spot simply because he can’t take as much action as the aforementioned pair. He has done absolutely nothing wrong in his first two starts, scoring by a combined 15 1/4 lengths with 98 and 96 Beyers, respectively. Those figures compare very favorably with Algorithms’ first two figures and hold a slight edge over Union Rags’ if he hasn’t improved. Something like 7-2 or 4-1 seems fair on a horse with unlimited upside at this point.