Sophomore Spotlight: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby and Swale

--Brian DiDonato

GII Tampa Bay Derby - Cozzetti (Cozzene) fits an angle that has proven so potent over the past few years that he's a value play on it alone. Trainer Dale Romans is a master at taking turfy-looking horses and running them on the dirt to win or, more commonly, hit the board at big prices in graded stakes. Over the past five years, according to DRF Formulator, the conditioner is 6-for-32 (19%) with a $2.97 ROI switching from turf or synthetic (which I tend to treat interchangeably) to dirt in graded events. Those runners have hit the board a very solid 38% of the time, and include the likes of Derby third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado and Preakness runner-up First Dude. More recent examples are GII Remsen S. winner O'Prado Again (El Prado {Ire}) (7-1), GII Fountain of Youth S. runner-up News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) (27-1) and GIII Gotham S. third-place finisher Finnegan's Wake (Powerscourt {GB}) (25-1). Cozzetti did break his maiden in the Churchill Downs slop and he has worked very quickly on the dirt at Gulfstream, but even if he hadn't, he'd be worth a long look purely because of the stats.

GIII Swale S. - While it seems like every favorite I've tried to go against this Triple Crown trail gets the job done at a deflated number, I'll keep at it and look to beat the two favorites here in horizontal wagers with a pair of alternatives. First in regards to the chalk--the connections of both Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie) and Motor City (Street Sense) have altered their charges' respective paths several times, calling into question the condition of both runners. It would be no surprise if either horse needed a race before showing up with their best. There also looms the possibility of a fresh Ever So Lucky getting caught up in a pace duel with Trinniberg (Teuflesberg) and Hello Prince (Halo's Image), and Motor City is better-suited to routes.
   Impressive maiden breakers Good Morning Diva (Lion Heart) and Bahamian Squall (Gone West) both possess the upside to pull off minor upsets. The former was fourth on debut in one of the hottest maiden races of the meet Jan. 5--four also-rans, including the deceptively named Good Morning Diva have returned to win, and another runner finished second next out. Good Morning Diva subsequently earned his diploma by 3 1/4 lengths going this distance in the slop Feb. 11, posting a field-best 87 Beyer Figure with a professional three-wide stalking score (video). Heavily backed runner-up Morgan's Guerrilla (Ghostzapper) returned to score at Aqueduct on the Gotham undercard after setting a blistering pace. The fact that Good Morning Diva's win came in the slop is of minor concern, but two of his dam's worst career performances came over ground with moisture in it, so the evidence doesn't suggest that he simply relished the going.
   Bahamian Squall only earned a 76 Beyer for his first-out win Feb. 5, but he did it relatively professionally (despite some issues with lead changes) from off the pace and leveled off nicely late (video). He has also been flattered by his competition, as runner-up Closerwalk (Street Sense) posted an 86 Beyer in victory here last Saturday. Bahamian Squall is a half-brother to the sometimes very fast Apriority (Grand Slam), who has displayed a particular affinity for Gulfstream. Trainer David Fawkes must think highly of Bahamian Squall, as this is only the second time in the past five seasons that he has run a horse in a graded stake off a debut win.

GII San Felipe S. - Truthfully, I'm not particularly interested in this race from a betting perspective, but I'll be watching closely to see how the two Empire Makers do, as both are high on my list of Derby horses. I advocated for using Empire Way last time in the GII Bob Lewis on the grounds that he seemed to be improving with every start and that he had an action that suggested dirt would be his preferred surface, and he took another step forward to be second at 11-1 with a 91 Beyer. He's hard to invest too much on in this spot because his style is not best for Santa Anita's incredibly quick main track and he may come up a bit short once again, but if he were to stick around his 6-1 morning line or drift at all he might be worth some win money. Either way, the full-brother to Royal Delta is one to keep an eye on as the distances get longer and the venue changes.
   Bodemeister's odds will be too short to play, but he has every right to announce himself a major Derby force. The bay couldn't have been much more impressive when stretched out to a mile here Feb. 11, as he controlled the pace before exploding in the lane under little encouragement to romp by 9 1/4 lengths with a gaudy (in this era) 101 Beyer (video). Bodemeister covered his final quarter in a very fast (not just for Santa Anita) :23.73, and third-place finisher and stablemate Stirred Up (Lemon Drop Kid) returned a winner last week. Bodemeister's pedigree screams Classic distances. His dam Untouched Talent (Storm Cat) was a SW and GSP sprinter and GSP router at two, but she was out of a MGSW turf router by A.P. Indy. Bodemeister's third dam was also a stakes-winning router, this time by major stamina influence Roberto; his fourth dam was a GSP router by Nijinsky II. By a Belmont winner with a dam side that goes Storm Cat to A.P. Indy to Roberto to Nijinsky--if that's not a pedigree for Classics, I'm not sure what is.

Sophomore Spotlight: Peter Pan Wrap-up

--Brian DiDonato

Alternation validated his “TDN Rising Star” status with a solid score over Adios Charlie in the Peter Pan. As expected, he was significantly closer to the pace with Ramon Dominguez aboard behind fractions that were a bit slower than anticipated--the pace was fair/neutral. Alternation received a 94 Beyer figure for the narrow victory, which normally wouldn’t be much to get excited about, but in this crop and considering his next objective, the number is plenty high enough. The logical next start for the Pin Oak homebred is obviously the Belmont, and while trainer Donnie Von Hemel would not yet commit, it would be surprising to see Alternation bypass that spot if he’s healthy. The “Test of the Champion” is a race perfectly suited to Alternation. He’s a large, grinder type who figures to run for as long as he’s asked. He isn’t brilliant and hasn’t displayed the same sort of ability as Animal Kingdom or Nehro, but steady, workmanlike staying power is often what gets the blanket of white carnations. Alternation also has freshness working in his favor. If Animal Kingdom comes into the Belmont with a chance to make history, he’ll have to face a new shooter with a lot more left in the tank. 

Alternation (outside) wears down Adios Charlie
(c) Jessie Holmes/EquiSport

Adios Charlie ran an admirable race in defeat, and probably proved that trainer and co-owner Stan Hough’s distance concerns were warranted. He seemed to tire just enough to let stouter Alternation get by, and looks like he might top out at slightly shorter distances. He ran well enough to win plenty of upcoming 3-year-old races at nine furlongs, however, and it will be interesting to see where he resurfaces. Maybe he’ll come back in the seven-furlong Woody Stephens on Belmont day. It’s a shame the Met Mile is coming up so quickly, because it would be a good, albeit slightly ambitious spot. He should handle turf as well--at least based on his female family--so perhaps he’ll get a try on the green at some point. Monzon didn’t really have any excuses. He was far back and looked to be making a move on the turn, but flattened out late. The only way his Count Fleet could have been fraudulent was if it was an inner track special, so I’m inclined to believe that the nine furlongs dulled his kick. He’s like Adios Charlie in that he’s stuck between sprints and longer routes, but he’s got a turfy-looking pedigree, so maybe he’ll be switched to the lawn.

Speed Ring was bet off the board at Woodbine on Sunday, but finished third. He ran very wide and without cover throughout, and made a sweeping turn move before flattening. According to the Trakus data, he traveled 21 feet more than the winner--which equates to about 2 1/2 lengths--putting him one length behind the victor. With the added toll that running with a lack of cover takes on a runner, the argument can be made that Speed Ring put in a better performance than the winner. His champion dam Catch The Ring took four starts to graduate, and as a son of A.P. Indy you’d expect him to be a slow starter, so I’m not willing to give up on him yet. The Queen’s Plate is coming up too quickly, but he still has a chance to make an impact in the second or third leg of the Canadian Triple Crown (it hasn’t taken much in recent years) if he finds his way. Red Ace couldn’t have run any poorer at Churchill Downs. It’s very possible that he hated the slop, and he might also need to be turned back. His form might be dirtied-up enough to get a nice price on him next time if he sprints.

Belmont Buzz...

--Steve Sherack

Belmont Park’s Spring Meeting kicks into high gear this week, led by the much-anticipated return of the popular 2010 GI Haskell runner-up and Long Branch S. hero Trappe Shot (Tapit) in the $60,000 Waldoboro S.

The Mill House colorbearer was given a vacation following a lackluster ninth as the lukewarm favorite in the GI Travers S. back in August (TDN APB). The "TDN Rising Star," also a sharp winner of a salty allowance on last year’s GI Belmont S. undercard, has put together a solid worktab dating back to early February for his seasonal bow. Kentucky Derby-winning jockey Johnny Velazquez replaces Alan Garcia, who was aboard in all seven of Trappe Shot’s previous starts.

Wednesday’s six-furlong feature, slated to go off at 4:45 p.m. EDT, will be far from a walkover for the 8-5 morning-line favorite. It has also attracted a pair of trainer Rick Dutrow’s big guns--D’ Funnybone (D’wildcat) and This Ones for Phil (Untuttable).

The former, two-for-two over Big Sandy with wins in the 2009 GII Futurity S. and 2010 GII Woody Stephens S., kicked off his 4-year-old campaign with a disappointing fourth in Gulfstream’s Sunshine State S. for Florida-breds Apr. 9. The handsome chestnut, a late scratch from last year's Fasig-Tipton November sale, appears to have bounced back well from his latest effort, firing a five-furlong bullet in 1:00 3/5 at the Big A May 6.

This Ones for Phil faced the starter only twice last term, gamely securing the Sunshine Millions Sprint at Gulfstream in January with a 108 Beyer, and tiring to finish eighth in the GII Gulfstream Park H. in March. The 5-year-old has always run well fresh throughout his career.


Belmont Park
Sherackatthetrack photo


Rule by Night (Malibu Moon) adds fuel to the fire in this competitive sprint. A strong second in the Gallant Bob S. at Philly Park in October, he enters off a breakthrough 9 1/4-length win in Aqueduct’s Groovy S. Nov. 21, good for a career-best 108 Beyer.

Thursday’s nine-race card features the $60,000 Ziggy’s Boy S. for sophomores going seven furlongs on the main track. Glickman (Trippi), a visually impressive first out winner on the GI Wood Memorial undercard (Ready for the Big Show--TDN Staff Blog), takes on four experienced rivals in his stakes debut.

Arch Traveler (Sky Mesa) had a two-race winning streak snapped at Gulfstream when sixth in the GI Florida Derby; The Fed Eased (Montbrook) cuts back in distance following a respectable third in the GIII Illinois Derby; and Free Entry (Tale of the Cat) resurfaces following an off-the-board finish as one of the choices in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Rocking Out (Include), fourth in Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)’s Timely Writer S., seeks his second straight win off a solid effort in an optional claimer in Hallandale.

The Ziggy’s Boy, slated as the day’s third race, goes off at 2:04 p.m. EDT.

The weekday action continues at Belmont Friday with "TDN Rising Star" Ripples n’ Waves (Malibu Moon)’s first test against winners in a $75,000 optional claimer (race seven, post time: 4:12 p.m. EDT). The L. Riley Mangum homebred scored by an eye-catching 6 1/4 lengths in an Aqueduct maiden special weight going a mile Apr. 15 (TDN Video), earning a 91 Beyer. The extra sixteenth of a mile should be no problem with a repeat performance of his second career start. The very promising Ripples n’ Waves was also nominated for Saturday’s GII Peter Pan S. at Belmont.

With a forecast calling for clear skies and temperatures in the 70s throughout the week, what better place to be than at beautiful Belmont Park.

And the Best 3yo in the Land Is...

--Steve Sherack

   Anybody else had it with this crop of three-year-old colts yet? I certainly have. Following another weekend of head-scratching Kentucky Derby preps and disappointing efforts from the so-called division leaders, I'm beginning to think that the top sophomore in the nation is the Tapit filly Joyful Victory. Owned and trained by the same connections of the ill-fated Derby runner-up Eight Belles (Unbridled’s Song), the Fox Hill Farm colorbearer has been spectacular in her two Oaklawn Park attempts this season, dismantling the GIII Honeybee S. field by 8 3/4 lengths (TDN Video), then making a very promising filly in Arienza (Giant’s Causeway--Azeri) look rather ordinary in the GII Fantasy S. (TDN Video), scoring by seven lengths. Joyful Victory, transferred to the Larry Jones barn after beginning her career with Tony Dutrow last term, hasn't received any love from the Beyer boys yet (82-Honeybee; 83-Fantasy), but couldn't have been any more visually impressive in that pair of runaway victories. The well-built $400k FTFFEB 2yo grad gives the impression that she's just getting warmed up at 1 1/16 miles, and hasn’t been asked for any serious run yet by regular pilot Mike Smith either. Can’t blame Joyful Victory's connections for bypassing the Derby with her following the well-documented tragic tale of the filly Eight Belles in the 2008 Run for the Roses, but it should still be awfully fun to see her strut her stuff in the previous day’s Kentucky Oaks beneath the Twin Spires.

Maiden Watch...
   "TDN Rising Star" Ripples n’ Waves (c,3, Malibu Moon) looked like the real deal turning in a 6 1/4-length tour-de-force maiden win at the Big A on Friday (TDN Video), earning a very respectable 91 Beyer in the process. The Riley Mangum homebred, trained by Jimmy Jerkens, ran like a horse in need of a race after getting outsprinted early in his six-furlong Gulfstream debut Mar. 12, but appeared a new animal stretching to a mile for a barn that is deadly with its second-time starters. Confidently handled throughout, the only movement from jockey Edgar Prado came when the pilot took a couple of sneaks back at the top of the lane and a little bit later in mid-stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this guy’s name appear in the entries for the May 14 GII Peter Pan S. at Belmont Park next time out.
   Haven’t really noticed anything in the two-year-old division to get the blood pumping at this early stage of the season in mid-April, but one performance that did catch my eye came in the form of a Maryland-bred daughter of Two Punch named Bluegrass Atatude at Pimlico Apr. 15 (TDN Video). Trained by John Salzman Jr.--who has been on fire with his juveniles thus far--the $10k FTMOCT yearling purchase came from at least 14 lengths back after a slow start, rallied smartly between foes while racing greenly in the stretch, and finished up full of run to win in style by a good-looking two lengths. Not too sure what finished behind Bluegrass Atatude at Old Hilltop that day, but she certainly looks like one to watch in the Mid-Atlantic region going forward.

Stable Mail Alert...
   It was nice to see another workout from "TDN Rising Star" Eightyfiveinafifty (Forest Camp) at Belmont Park Saturday. The talented bay, off since an unplaced effort in last year's GII Woody Stephens S. on the Belmont Stakes undercard due to a serious case of pneumonia, was close to returning to the races this winter before suffering from another respiratory illness. According to co-owner Jeff Massaro of Team Stallion Racing, the $100k OBSMAR graduate will be handled very patiently in the a.m. by trainer Gary Contessa, and will be pointed toward a Saratoga campaign if he returns the right way. So far, so good. The 2010 GIII Bay Shore S. hero has posted a pair of easy three-furlong breezes in :37.88 (dirt training track Apr. 10) and :37.44 (main track Apr. 16).

Eightyfiveinafifty at the 2009 OBSMAR sale
Sherackatthetrack photo

Stable Mail Time...

--Steve Sherack

   With the Mets already getting the day’s loss out of the way early Thursday afternoon in Philly (as you can see, I’m quite the optimist this baseball season), what better thing to do with my evening than check on my powerhouse 58-horse stable on DRF.com Watch Mail?

   Correction, let’s make that powerhouse 59-horse stable. Speightstown Lady (Speightstown) seemed a very worthy addition after debuting in style at Woodbine Sunday. Dismissed at 16-1, the 3yo filly blazed the way through fractions of :22 and :44 4/5 while well within herself, and impressively opened daylight in the stretch after a tap of Christopher Griffith’s whip to win by 4 1/4 lengths (TDN Video). I’d be lying if I said that I’ve heard of the ownership group Kelynack Racing Stable or trainer Ricky Griffith (former assistant to Mark Casse, courtesy quick google search) before, but something tells me that I will soon enough if this filly is as good as I think she is.

   With the older horse division a complete crapshoot at the moment, I’m quickly reminded once signing into my account of how much I can’t wait to see the return of “TDN Rising Stars” Trappe Shot (Tapit) and Trickmeister (Proud Citizen). Trappe Shot, off since a head-scratching ninth as the favorite in last year’s Travers, looks well on his way to making his four-year-old debut, most recently posting a five-furlong move at Palm Meadows Apr. 8, his seventh breeze of the season. Unbeaten Trickmeister, last seen crushing stakes company at Saratoga in late August, still hasn’t made the worktab yet, but I’ve been hearing nothing but good reports from the crew at IEAH Stables and Rick Dutrow down in Florida since his return to training. Trickmeister was scheduled to join “Babe’s” Belmont Park string this week. Stay tuned.

   Hey, remember Notonthesamepage (Catienus)? I added him to the roster after tabbing the flashy chestnut as a “TDN Rising Star” following his second career start at Churchill Downs back on April 30, 2008. He had me patting myself on the back after registering an eye-catching 8 1/4-length victory in Gulfstream’s 2009 Spectacular Bid S., but there has been very little to celebrate since. Sidelined following a seventh-place finish in Quality Road (Elusive Quality)’s GII Fountain of Youth S., the Kentucky-bred recently resurfaced at the age of five for owners Ken and Sarah Ramsey and trainer Wesley Ward with a fifth-place finish in a $20,000 claimer at Gulfstream. Here’s hoping that he follows in the footsteps of fellow “TDN Rising Star” S.S. Stone (Birdstone), who realized graded stakes glory after beginning the year with a win in a $20k tagger. (Note: Notonthesamepage was haltered by Midwest Thoroughbreds and Jamie Ness in his comeback effort).

   Maiden Watch: Jaredella (Tapit). Very surprised that this filly is still a maiden after three trips to post. The Michael Talla colorbearer reported home a strong third in her Jan. 22 unveiling after having her path briefly stolen in the stretch by winner and “TDN Rising Star” Hout Bay (Harlan’s Holiday). She hopped at the start and failed to land a blow when fourth behind the very promising Mildly Offensive (Sharp Humor) Feb. 19, and was most recently a good second behind another rocketship in Dazzling Display (Dehere) Apr. 2. Still think that two turns is going to be Jaredella’s best game. The fourth time will be the charm.

   Haven’t lost any faith in Willcox Inn (Harlan’s Holiday) (Watch Mail member since 9/20/10, two days after his impressive Arlington debut) following a runner-up effort in his sophomore debut in the Grindstone S. at Fair Grounds Mar. 12. Racing over a yielding course, the GII Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf third-place finisher rallied smartly into very slow early fractions to lose by only a length. Write it down now: he’s your 2011 GI Secretariat S. winner. If he backs up my words with a win in Arlington’s premier event for sophomore infielders, that should certainly help ease some of my pain during the dog days of August, assuming TDN publisher and Philly fanatic Barry Weisbord continues to remind me of how much his Phillies are in first place by in the NL East.