While the Kentucky Oaks lost its most talented runner with the unfortunate defection of R Heat Lightning, it became a much better betting race in her absence. Two of the race’s favorites figure to be significant underlays, and most of the other contenders--and there are quite a few--will offer good value because of their more-fancied rivals disproportionate support.
Joyful Victory (c) Wendy Wooley/EquiSport |
2-1 range, but her reputation is based more on the mere margins of her last two victories rather than objective analyses of those performances. Decidedly a cut below the best of her generation at two when under the tutelage of Tony Dutrow, the grey was turned over to Larry Jones for her sophomore campaign and reeled off 8 3/4 and seven-length victories in the GIII Honeybee and GII Fantasy respectively. In the Honeybee, Joyful Victory saved all the ground and sat off a very fast pace in a perfect position. She did make an eye-catching move to sweep by the leaders turning for home, but her facile trip leading up to that point and the slow Beyer Figure she earned (82) do not warrant the hype she received. It was more of the same last out in the Fantasy, as Joyful Victory allowed her only competition--the lightly raced and somewhat rushed Arienza--to chase an overmatched foe through quick fractions before picking up the pieces late and drawing off. That race yielded another slow figure for Joyful Victory (83). The fastest speed figures often tend to come from a race favorite, but this is a rare instance where the chalk has a distinct disadvantage according to the numbers. Only four of the field’s runners have a lower Beyer top; three of those fillies are 50-1 on the morning line and the fourth is 20-1. Joyful Victory can certainly win, but her chance of wearing the lilies is drastically lower than what her odds will reflect. Kathmanblu will be similarly underlaid. She does have a visually impressive win over the strip in last year’s GII Golden Rod, but the bay has always given the impression that she is better on the grass.
St. John's River (c) Horsephotos |
I will also use Plum Pretty somewhat protectively, as her 25-length romp in the Sunland Park Oaks is difficult to take at face value, but also difficult to completely dismiss; Daisy Devine, who seems to be getting a bit overlooked despite pretty decent form; and Her Smile, an interesting acquisition by Bobby Flay and Todd Pletcher. As mentioned above, I will use five horses in the Pick 4, pressing St. John’s River and Zazu. I will also play St. John’s River to win, box her in the exacta with the other horses I’m playing in the Pick 4, and use her with a number of runners in the Oaks/Derby double.
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