Guest Post: The Case for Flintshire in the BC Turf

--Mark Cramer

There are three essential reasons why Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}) should be able to win the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf: track condition, the level of competition he's confronted, and the André Fabre cycle. It is often noted that horses coming from the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe face the constraint of a peak race plus short interval. However, both of Fabre's BC Turf winners, In the Wings in 1990 and Shirocco in 2006, came from the Arc, where they each finished fourth. So we can call it a pattern match for Flintshire. Call it the Arc de Triomphe as prep race.

 

Fabre's Arcangues, winner of the 1993 BC Classic at 133-1, "prepped" the day prior to the Arc, finishing 10th on a heavy track in the Prix Dollar.

Like Arcangues, Flintshire figures to improve on a dry surface. Given his record, Flintshire should relish drought-stricken California, where he will be delivered a firm surface. His record on tracks listed as soft would not warrant a trip to the BC: four races with a second-place finish, two fourths and an eighth. On tracks listed as good, he's won three and finished second three times. His seconds in the Epson Coronation Cup to Cirrus des Aigles (Fr) (Even Top {Ire}) and to Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}) in the recent Arc put him in the most elite company. Several of the horses that finished behind him in the Arc could have ended up favored in the BC Turf.

The problem is that Flintshire's win payout, that is, if he wins, figures to be less than the generous place return I got from him in the Arc. He is currently listed as race favorite in both Britain and the USA. Much more often than not, the heavy Euro favorite finishes behind a higher-odds Euro horse in BC races.

Such was the case in last year's BC Turf, when the even-money The Fugue (GB) (Dansili {GB}) got caught by Magician (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), trained by Aidan O'Brien, who was 7-1. Like Flintshire, Magician does his best racing when the surface gets firmer, but needs a patient ride.

Similarly, Michael Stoute's Telescope (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has excelled when the surface is listed as good-to-firm. Telescope was defeated by the filly Taghrooda (GB) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) at his best distance of 12 furlongs at Ascot. The difference was three lengths. If you believe in "who beat who," then Flintshire looks good by comparison, having finished a length and a quarter ahead of the wide-racing Taghrooda in the Arc. The who-beat-whoers would also have to consider the horse that defeated Magician in the Arlington Million, Hardest Core (Hard Spun).

At this writing in the British books, Flintshire and Telescope are vying for favoritism between 7-2 and 4-1. You can get as much as 6-1 on Magician. Hardest Core is 12-1. The former European horse Main Sequence (Aldebaran) has followed the pattern of horses that have underachieved in Europe because they have craved firmer surfaces. He has thrived for Graham Motion on firm surfaces in the USA and his odds have been coming down to around 6-1. The American odds thus far have Flintshire at 7-2, Telescope 5-1 and Magician at 6-1, with Main Sequence, distinguished for winning photo finishes, also at 6-1.

Most factors still give Flintshire the edge, except for one: the odds. Can the man who has produced Breeders' Cup winners in double- and triple-figure payoffs do it again when he's got the favorite? Fabre faces multiple BC Turf-winning trainers Stoute and O'Brien, as well as the former Euro now longtime American, Graham Motion, who's also won a BC Turf.

Let's see the odds. Backing heavily bet Euro horses in the BC is like trying to squeeze blood from a turnip. With all the contention, we should demand a double-figure payoff.

Guest Post: The Last Resort

--Mark Cramer

   If you can't get reservations for the seaside Deauville meets, as a last resort you can go up the Normandy coast to Dieppe. It's a resort town for the claiming ranks of vacationers--a stony beach, but a magnificent palisade and a castle towering amidst rolling green hills above the beach.
   A half-hour walk inland from the beach is the Dieppe race course, also a last resort, for some horses that have not been able to make it at the Paris tracks or at Deauville. The conditions for the ninth and final race were “for horses that were not among the top-five finishers in their last five races, excepting small tracks that do not offer national pari-mutuel wagering.”  
   I have become a lover of such country tracks. Often big-time stables come slumming, expecting to pick up an easy win, only to be thwarted by the hillbillies of the Thoroughbred world.  
   A few years ago, I bicycled 100 kilometers from outside of Paris to Dieppe, not even knowing there was a race course there. The road leading into town passed along the empty backstretch, and I resolved to return on a racing day, which I did this past Tuesday.
   Also arriving in Dieppe was the Irish filly Cocktail Queen, daughter of Motivator (none other than the sire of Treve, winner of the 2013 Arc de Triomphe). Cocktail Queen had just finished fifth in a field of seven in a Group 3 race at Ascot for a purse of £60,000. She was now racing for a €20,000 purse.

Outdoor café culture at the Dieppe race course.

   She got beat by Storm River (Stormy River {Fr}), a French-bred gelding coming from a claiming race with a €23,000 purse. Dieppe is a place where scores are settled. Winning gentleman rider Florent Guy is often involved in such small track retribution against aristocratic invaders, with 24% wins and 59% in the money, incredible stats considering the large average field size in France.
   I bet on a similar pattern in the third race, for women amateur riders. The favorite had once been in the G1 French Derby and was now slumming for a purse of €15,000. Among the riders, only two had respectable win percentages: the rider of the favorite, with 10% wins, and the rider of the horse I backed, Madmoiselle Barbara Guenet, with 32% winners. Because of this jockey stat, I found myself betting on a claimer against a former stakes contender. My claimer won at 8-1.
   The anti-aristocrat bet does not always win at places like Dieppe and André Fabre broke the pattern in the 6th race by winning with a colt named Fauve (Ire) (Montjeu {Ire}) at 4/1. It was a poet's victory, with "Fabre" and "fauve" forming a near perfect alliteration in French pronunciation.
   The arts were also alive in the walking ring, where a local painter stood in a kiosk before his easel and did a painting of the horses. The winning rider of the seventh race was to be awarded the work of art. Raphael Marchelli won the race, but was later fined by the jockey club for "abusive use of the whip-nine lashes." The fine was €75, but he got to keep the painting. 


Horses coming on to the track. The receiving barn in the background has typical
Normandy spires.

   When I first wheeled past an empty Dieppe race course a few years ago, the French renaissance of small rural tracks had only just begun. Most small tracks offered only local wagering that was not tied into the national French PMU. This afternoon's Dieppe racing was simulcast across the nation.
   The locals showed up in good numbers for the racing, with encouragement from the regional newspaper, Paris Normandie Dieppe Bray, which published a four-page spread on the day's races, including abbreviated past performances.
   There'll be racing on July 14th to celebrate the French national holiday. After the racing, you can stroll down to the beach along a side street with a vibrant display of colorful Normandy brick architecture, then watch the sunset and see the fireworks.
   My plan is to visit all 250 French race tracks. Dieppe was my 23rd.  Each of these smaller rural tracks is different.
   What was distinct about Dieppe? The artist with his easel in the walking ring, the grassy apron, the rolling green hills behind the backstretch, the typical Normandy spires of the receiving barn, and the mile-and-a-half circumference more in the form of a triangle than an oval, with three turns to get around, with the jockeys vying for the outside rail in the stretch drive.

Jockeys vie for the outer rail in the stretch.

   But French rural tracks have one thing in common. There's an intimacy that allows the racing fan to chat with the jockeys and trainers, get a close look at the horses, and even voice opinions directly to the management.

 

Shipping Down: Are There Advantages to High-Altitude Conditioning?

--Mark Cramer

   What if there were a revolutionary training method that improved horses’ oxygen delivery capacity

and thus their aerobic power and stamina? Such a method seems to exist, but digging for the story is daunting because most of its practitioners are not interested in spreading the word.
   Anecdotal evidence abounds that high-altitude training improves the performance of Thoroughbreds. Canonero II, an outlandish Kentucky Derby outsider (500-1 in the Caliente book), shipped in (and down) to win the 1971 Derby. He had raced in Venezuela at 3,704 feet above sea level, lower than Denver, but still considerably higher than most American race tracks.
   The inspiring Canonero story is too exquisitely complex to detail here--see Steve Haskin's 2011 piece. Was high-altitude living and training a factor in Canonero’s Derby and Preakness victories? One piece of evidence says yes: Canonero’s pre-Preakness electrocardiogram. Haskin writes: When a Baltimore radiologist, Dr. George Burke, took an electrocardiogram of the horse, he discovered his heartbeat was only 30 beats per minute, which was five less than the average horse. “Fantastic,” Burke said. “That’s as low as a horse will go.”
   Following Canonero’s Preakness win, the effects of the altitude should have begun wearing off, but his loss in the Belmont could have also been attributed to physical ailments. The following year, stabled in the USA, his career did indeed tail off with life at sea level. However, the following year he beat Riva Ridge by five in record time in the Stymie at Belmont.
   Mine That Bird (Birdstone) also shipped down, from the 6,500 ft. altitude in New Mexico, to win the 2009 Kentucky Derby at 50-1. Sid Gustafson, a specialist in Thoroughbred sports medicine and equine behavior, attributed the win to altitude training.
   I have accumulated other pieces to the puzzle, including stories of horses that had overachieved after shipping down from mile-high Arapahoe, with confirmations from the trainer that his precise intention had been to descend in altitude just before the race.
   The logistics and expense of training horses at Arapahoe, Ruidoso or other high-altitude venues and then shipping down will discourage most trainers from trying the method. But some owners and trainers who believe in the altitude factor are resorting to hypoxic (oxygen reduced) stabling of horses in climate-controlled stalls.
   In 2003, Howe and Swanson presented their findings on the subject, in “Athletic Performance and Altitude Response in horses exposed to simulated altitude (3658 meters).” “Through the use of the latest altitude simulation technology as a training aid, trainers are realizing increases in aerobic power and endurance that reflect the horse’s true genetic potential,” the researchers noted.
   Their study advocates “living high and training low”: The proven advantages of the 'live high, train low' approach to altitude training are that horses can benefit from the physiological effects of altitude acclimatization without suffering the untoward effects of chronic altitude exposure. High-low training allows for the beneficial physiological adaptations from exposure to hypoxia with
concurrent maintenance of high intensity exercise because of maximal oxygen flux during low altitude training.
   Some high-profile human athletes abide by this approach. Notably, Olympic swimming champion Michael Phelps admitted that he was sleeping at 8,500 to 9,000 feet, in an altitude chamber (watch here).
   In Australia, simulated high-altitude conditioning purportedly contributed to the success of Shamus Award (Aus) (Snitzel {Aus}), the first maiden to ever win the A$3 million-dollar G1 Cox Plate in Australia.

Shamus Award                                                              Racing and Sports

   “At his Flemington stables sit three stables that look a bit different to the rest. Shamus Award spends a fair bit of time in one of them. In layman’s terms, the oxygen is drawn out, emulating altitude training, like running in the mountains to increase lung capacity,” wrote Matt Steward in the Oct. 26, 2013 Herald Sun.
   In 2012, Australian trainer Darren Weir incorporated simulated high-altitude training into his horses’ routines. “The trainer has enjoyed a seemingly blessed run of luck in the past 12 months, and is well on target to post his best season ever. Weir has trained nine country cup winners, becoming the first trainer to train 100 winners in Victoria for the current season.” (“Horse racing to reach new heights,” by Aaron Hamilton, On the Record, March 26, 2013)
   The specially designed altitude simulator was purchased for Weir with the help of Gerry Ryan. Ryan is connected with the 2010 G1 Melbourne Cup winner Americain (Dynaformer).
   Individual success stories become newsworthy, but as a horseplayer, I would like to know the return on investment for all horses using reduced-oxygen climate controlled stalls. Even the most down-and-out horseplayers offer their big-score stories as a smokescreen for their negative bottom line.    
   The wife-husband team of Dina Alborano and Don Carmody manufacture climate-controlled horse stalls, with floor-to-ceiling kickboard, rubberized walls, a pure-air monitor, a power-failure ventilator system, and generator limiters that simulate high-altitude training for their company called Equine Altitude .Com.
   Both are athletes who have used high-altitude simulation in their own training regimens. But their clients are secretive about using the stalls. Once Shamus Award became a lucrative breeding prospect, his handlers denied using the stalls supplied by Equine Altitude, Alborano said. 
   Dina Alborano told me that harness trainer Noel Daley used their product on Hambletonian winner Broad Bahn, so I phoned Daley and asked him if it was true. Daley told me that Broad Bahn stayed in the self-enclosed simulated altitude stall for “12 hours per day, for five to six months prior to his Hambletonian victory.”
   However, Daley also used the stall for a 3-year-old filly and “with the filly I didn’t see a huge difference,” he said. “The stall is a bit claustrophobic and I would have liked to have a bigger stall that could contain a treadmill.”
   Even with the dominating Hambletonian victory of Broad Bahn, Daley remains skeptical about the live-high-train-low approach and would prefer his horses to live high and train high as well.
I am a visceral believer in “live high and train high” because I’ve tested it on myself and felt the tremendous boost when running and bicycling at sea level. Right off the plane after descending from my residence at 12,000 feet to sea level, I could literally run all day.
   Nairo Quintana, the Colombian cyclist who finished second in the 2013 Tour de France and then won the demanding Giro de Italia in 2014, is not worried about his pedigree value, and so he openly confides on how he lives and trains in his native country at about 8,000 feet prior to his races.
Sifting through the scientific literature and anecdotal evidence, it’s not clear whether natural or simulated high-altitude training is ultimately superior. Personally I would rather travel and train high than sleep in a contraption.    
   But as more horse trainers explore the more practical mechanical method, questions have arisen about the fairness of the simulated version of altitude training.
   Back in 2006, the ethics panel of the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) was considering banning altitude tents or altitude rooms because they violated the “spirit of the sport.”
   However, two months later the same “World Anti-Doping Agency declared that altitude simulation does improve performance, but is not doping.” The decision to not ban hypoxic training was supported by the worldwide scientific community.
   Four essential questions must be answered about the simulated high altitude:

Does it work successfully on horses? 

Is it safe?

Is it doping?

Does it create an unfair advantage?

Does it work?

   Dina Alborano claims that, “Every horse that has utilized our system has had increases in blood parameters. These increases are documented in RBC count [number of red blood cells], PCV [overall amount of cells in the blood], MCV [mean corpuscular volume, which includes number plus size of red blood cells], Hematocrit [the proportion of your total blood volume that is composed of red blood cells] and Iron Building Total Capacity.” (Bracketed definitions inserted by this writer.)
   Even without seeing copies of before-and-after blood tests, most high-altitude medical specialists would not be at all surprised that hypoxic living would increase oxygen delivery capacity.
   But does this translate into consistent improvement for race horses? We will not know for sure until those trainers who use the simulation techniques are forced to come forward with results that can be translated into statistics. (Of course, it’s in their interest to keep it a secret.)

Is it safe?
   The high-altitude stall is a non-pressurized system and a low-oxygen environment that is unable to support fire. This is the opposite of the potentially dangerous  hyperbaric chambers that use pressurized highly explosive compressed oxygen as a quick fix.
   In hyperbaric therapy, air pressure/oxygen density is increased, which has caused occasional fatal fires. Furthermore, the suddenness of hyperbaric therapy involves physiological risks, including potential lung damage.
   Once you mimic the “hypoxic” low-oxygen environment of high altitude, the chance of a fire decreases abruptly. On my first Christmas in La Paz, Bolivia, 12,000 feet above sea level, I was alarmed to see folks place lit candles on a carpeted floor. I blurted out “fire hazard”. What fire hazard? they said. There’s not enough oxygen to support a fire. (La Paz fire fighters have plenty of time to play cards and watch TV.) 

Is it doping?
The World Anti-Doping Agency says it isn’t.
   Altitude researchers Baker and Hopkins (“Altitude training for sea level competition,” in Sportscience Training & Technology. Internet Society for Sport Science. http://sportsci.org/traintech/altitude/wgh.html) explain the dilemma succinctly:
   Altitude chambers, nitrogen houses and nitrogen tents would be dangerous if the simulated altitude was high enough and long enough to raise the thickness of blood to an unsafe level… so far, no one has made a public case for banning these devices on the grounds of health or safety.  It also seems unlikely they will be banned as an expensive innovation, because they are no more expensive than the high-tech equipment used in training or performance by many Olympic athletes. If they aren't unethical, are they unsporting? Perhaps... Somehow it's less objectionable if the individual athlete pursues this avenue of performance enhancement via a personal altitude chamber or tent. Still, it will be a sad day when all endurance athletes have to spend weeks of their lives in such apparatus to keep up with other competitors. Can they be banned?  No, because you can't ban normal altitude training, so it's unfair to ban a safe practice that makes it easier or cheaper for athletes to achieve the same effect.

Is it fair? The $64,000 question

   A single high-altitude stall currently costs $64,000. This would clearly favor the wealthier stables.
   Horseplayers need to demand disclosure: past performances should include whether or not a horse uses a simulated high-altitude stall, and if he does, how long he has been using it. This should be no different from transparency about the use of blinkers or mud caulks.
   Trainers should go public about their use of simulated high altitude. The betting public should not be left in the clouds.

Guest Post: Speed and Stamina: The Odd Couple

by Mark Cramer

   French trainer Philippe Decouz once explained to me why speed pedigree was necessary for success in jump races: “The horse needs to accelerate after each jump, and if there’s a lack of speed in his pedigree, it will slow him down.”
   Years ago, in a race at Saint-Cloud, a Thoroughbred that did both flat and hurdle racing was entered in a mile event following a long layoff. The trainer commented that this race would be a prep for upcoming obstacle events.
   The horse went off at 35-1, took the lead at the break and never looked back. The crowd, aware of the trainer’s comment, erupted in boos, but in fact, the field was void of early speed and the jumper got the jump. It was indeed a prep, and the horse went on to the planned jump races.
   The odd relationship between speed and stamina is often the core of GI Kentucky Derby analysis. All horses are stretching to the mile-and-a-quarter distance, except for an occasional Dubai winner at the classic distance. 
   According to American author Roger LeBlanc, if you played all Derby entrants showing among the top three four-furlong splits taken from nine-furlong races (in other words, three win bets per Derby), you’d show a 111% profit. In his new The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby: 3 Easy Angles, LeBlanc is meticulous in distinguishing between what he calls “keen-to-lead” horses, which are a bad bet, and more versatile early speed competitors.
   When LeBlanc sent me his manuscript, I was at first skeptical about the word’s “lazy” and “easy.” I feared the usual quick-fix system. However, my fears were allayed after the first few pages. What I love about the book is that it is both empirical and literate. It’s fun to read and it’s based on exquisite and agile research.  
   LeBlanc tells the story of a long list of Derby losers that had been overbet because of their perceived stamina, horses that lacked early speed. I know this viscerally from my bicycling. I can cycle all day, the way certain horses can “run all day,” but I lack speed, so one of my cycling partners, the speedy Alan Kennedy, always ends up ahead of me.
   In 2006, Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro (Dynaformer) showed one of the top three four-furlong splits of all the Derby entrants, when he was second by a half-length at the quarter of the GIII Holy Bull S. with a :46 2/5. The 2010 winner Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) qualified by virtue of his :47 split in the GI Arkansas Derby. Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz}) was another qualifier in 2011.
   Even the longshot Mine That Bird (Birdstone) fit the parameters in 2009 thanks to a 45 4/5 half at Sunland.
   But alas, LeBlanc’s fractional analysis is anything but “easy” and he delves deeply into the comparative values of early speed fractions from dirt, turf and synthetic preps.
   As with the jumpers in France, the fact that a horse has shown the capacity for early speed does not mean that it will run its Kentucky Derby from the front. That would depend on the pace dynamics--he could end up coming from behind. But the speed aspect of his pedigree will allow for the necessary big move.
   Meanwhile, pure stamina horses will usually finish with chart comments like “didn’t get up on time” or “lacked his usual closing rush.”
   Naturally, Mr. LeBlanc has a lot more to say on the subject, includes three different methods, and goes about it with more nuance and depth than I can in
600 words.
   The disclaimer here is that I eventually wrote a forward for his book. I have never met Mr. LeBlanc, nor do I have any economic interest in the book. I am simply known in the business as a guy who does not turn down a manuscript read, though I am rarely moved to write about one. 

2010 Derby winner Super Saver
Horsephotos

Guest Post: European Horses That Surprise in the Breeders' Cup

--Mark Cramer

   Over the history of the Breeders' Cup, foreign horses that were dominant in Europe have often fallen short of their expectations in the U.S. They were well-adapted to Euro racing, and American racing turned out to be different. For every Goldikova that succeeded, there are so many that disappointed at low odds.
   On the other hand, Euro horses that are not well-adapted to European racing often ship to the U.S. with less-than-stellar records and surprise, at a price. Last year, the example was the French-based filly  Flotilla (Mizzen Mast), who much preferred the slick Santa Anita surface over the heavy Euro courses she'd raced on and upended the Juvenile Fillies Turf at 11-1.
   The reasons for these turnabouts are not easy to figure. For example, why did Domedriver win of the 2002 BC mile following victories against lower levels of competition, in Group 2's and 3's? I put this question to Domedriver's rider Thierry Thulliez. Thulliez suspected that Domedriver's powerful turn of foot, his strong burst of speed, was best served over the shorter stretch drive at an American race track like Arlington.
   On the other hand, rider Ioritz Mendizabal told me that his Spirit One was able to win the Arlington Million in 2008 because his front-running or early-paced racing style was much better served over firmer American tracks, where his horse wouldn't have to "bear the brunt of the race".
   Christophe Lemaire assured me that in the case of his mount Flotilla that the filly simply preferred the firmer surface compared to the heavier ground in Europe.
   When Sir Michael Stoute's trainee Dank (GB) (Dansili {GB}) won the GI Beverly D S. this past summer, some players were surprised because Dank had only been successful in Europe in Group 2s and 3s, a profile similar to that of Domedriver.
   Dank comes back again for the Saturday’s Filly & Mare Turf, possibly as the favorite. It must be said that second time in the U.S. for a shipper is often more difficult than the first time. In the same race, we find another underachieving Euro, Romantica (GB) (Galileo {Ire}). Her only Group 1 win came in a suspect six-horse field at Deauville this past summer. However, the horse that finished third in that race behind Romantica, Dalkala (Giant’s Causeway) came back to win the prestigious G1 Prix de l'Opera for fillies and mares on Arc day, a race that Romantica ducked.
   So now we find Romantica at Santa Anita instead of in the Prix de l'Opera, and we can wonder if this filly can surpass a record that includes mainly Group 2 and Group 3 performances. Like Domedriver and Dank, she appears to be a cut below. But trainer Andre Fabre, no stranger to surprising Breeders’ Cup wins (such as Arcangues, Banks Hill and Shirocco), may have felt his filly would prefer the surface at Santa Anita over that of Longchamp.
   Romantica is by champion sire Galileo, but more interestingly, her dam is none other than Banks Hill, who won the 2001 version of this same race. Romantica was twice a beaten favorite on turf surfaces labeled "very soft" and may prefer the firm American surface that her mom loved at Belmont. She was also trounced in this year's Prix Vermeille. The surface was listed as "soft," but I was there that day and everyone in the press box was convinced it was indeed "very soft."
   Nothing is inevitable in racing. Romantica finds herself in a tough field of 10 that includes some rivals who have already won over the Santa Anita turf course, and then again, there is also Dank. Both Romantica and Dank fit the paradigm of Euro horses that move up when coming to America, and Romantica could be flying under the radar. 

Romantica                                                                                     Racing Post

Guest Post: Is there a Matriarchal Trend in Racing?

--Mark Cramer
   Orfevre (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn}) came from Japan for the 2012 G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and defeated most of the best colts and older horses in Europe. But he lost to a filly. He went back to Japan a month later and beat the best colts and older horses in Asia. But he finished second behind another filly. The 5-year-old came back for a second try at the Arc this past Sunday and soundly defeated the best colts and older horses in Europe and elsewhere, but he finished second behind yet another filly: undefeated Criquette Head trainee Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}).
   What's happening here at the upper echelon of racing?
   Two races later, the mare Moonlight Cloud (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) won her fourth consecutive race this year--all against the boys--in the G1 Prix de la Foret at 7 furlongs, for trainer Freddie Head, who also took the femme fatale Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) to the U.S. for three annual wins versus the boys in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile.

Moonlight Cloud                      Michele MacDonald

   The last three winners of the Arc de Triomphe have been fillies (four of the past six) and we can't say this is exclusively a French phenomenon since the 2011 Arc winner was Danedream (Ger) (Lomitas {GB}), was trained in Germany.
   English horses were nowhere to be seen among the top five finishers, but sixth place (of 17 horses) in the Arc went to Al Kazeem (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), even though he stumbled at the start after departing from the extreme outside post. However, the best Arc possibility from England may have been The Fugue (GB) (Dansili {GB}), who happens to be a filly as well, and who easily disposed of Al Kazeem and other males in the prestigious G1 Irish Champions S. at Leopardstown a month earlier. Trainer John Gosden reluctantly withdrew The Fugue from the Arc because of the soft going.
   In leaving Orfevre in her wake, Treve had to overcome a terrible trip, racing outside, "nose against the wind," and yet she won by an impressive margin of five lengths.

Treve                                      Michele MacDonald

   Treve was the best, and deserved to win, but I felt a tinge of sorrow for the throngs of Japanese racing fans who came from the other side of the world to root for their beloved duo of Orfevre and Kizuna (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) (who finished a valiant fourth). Japanese horses have been knocking at the door of the Arc for years now. But these fans never give up and they'll be back again and again.
   The Japanese presence provided an exquisite layer of exhilaration to the ambiance at Longchamp. (It might be a good idea for race tracks around the world to import some Japanese fans.)
   Maybe the next time, they will come to the Arc with a filly. That may be their best chance.
  

Guest Post: American Pedigree Witnessed from Abroad

--Mark Cramer

   When a horse named Slow Pace is the front runner, something strange is happening

   For one thing to change, something else needs to stay the same. Either American breeding is getting better or European racing is becoming more Americanized. I suspect it’s the latter.
Horses bred in the USA are regularly running “better than their odds” in France. Let’s look at two consecutive racing days at Deauville, the Del Mar of France.
   In the first race on Monday, Aug. 26, Shepherd Gate (Kitten’s Joy) finished second by a neck at 10-1. That was a fibresand sprint and the Americans are supposed to excel in both those categories, so perhaps it should not be a surprise. On to the fifth race, Great George (Gulch) was only a head from the victory, beating out 14 other horses for the second prize, at 14-1 odds! This was still on fibresand, but it was the Euro classic distance of a mile and a half.
   The sixth race was a flat mile on grass and another Kitten’s Joy, Shirley’s Kitten, finished third at 21-1. Finally, in the seventh race, Auditor (Kingmambo) was second at 3/1 as third favorite in a six-horse field.
   None of these USA-breds won, but using the odds as an indicator, they had all over-performed. Quite a return on the show (placé) parlay!
   The day before, Aug. 25, was not as clear at first sight, but still showed that horses bred in the USA had a positive impact value, partaking in more than their fair share of the pie. Two of the American-breds on that card provide the player with a significant profit if we just play them blindly in all their starts.
   One of them is New Outlook (Awesome Again), who defeated 15 others in the third race on the grass at a mile and a quarter, paying off at 20-1. If you had invested an equal amount on this horse in his 21 career races, you’d make the most aggressive hedge-fund operator blush, producing more than a 100% return on investment.
   The same day, in the G2 Grand Prix de Deauville, Slow Pace (that’s the name of the horse), helped along by Olivier Peslier, finished third on the grass at 1 9/16 miles. Euro surface, Euro distance, but American breeding (Slow pace is by Distorted Humor out a Seattle Slew mare). An equal amount bet on all of Slow Pace’s races would have yielded nearly a 100% profit.
   What I think is happening may be originating in France, where the pace of racing seems to have quickened considerably over the last decade. Slow Pace has an apt name for a horse that led the field all the way, putting away the likes of Cirrus des Aigles, and getting caught in the last 20 yards. If he had been 9-5, we might argue that he had hung at the wire. But at 20-1, you could say that the result was beyond expectations.  
   I recall years back when Ken Ramsey spoke of taking Kitten’s Joy to race in the Arc de Triomphe, only to be forced to back off when his charge had health problems. Within the next five or six years, we could see an American owner and trainer coming to France on the first Sunday of October and winning the Arc.
   In the meantime, if you just come over here to enjoy the racing without much time to handicap, my tip is to play the American-breds. 

Guest Post: The Race Track as a Clearing in the Forest: Unbeaten Paths to Historic Horse Races

--Mark Cramer

It is French Derby and French Oaks season. These exciting horse races take place in a setting of great beauty that is best appreciated in a primeval way.  

Our well-known year of 1776 also refers to the first public horse race at Fontainebleau race course, in a sprawling, boulder-strewn forest about 37 miles south of Paris. Seventeen years before he was beheaded, Louis XIV was in attendance on that memorable day in the history of the sport of kings. Today, Fontainebleau is one of France’s 251 race courses, and horse racing has become a spectacle for the proletariat, with low admission fare (sometimes free) and a pari-mutuel system (invented in France) that has spread to the most remote regions of the country.

Today’s Fontainebleau race course, also known as Hippodrome de la Solle, dates back to its re-inauguration in 1862, when Emperor Napoléon II was in attendance along with 30,000 spectators. One of the great traditions that began with Fontainebleau is the integration of race tracks within forests, usually not far from a great castle (click here for photos).

Just a few of the other tracks that have followed in this tradition are Longchamp (Boulogne Forest), Compiègne, set within a forest of the same name, and Chantilly, whose forest contains hiking trails that crisscross with miles of cushiony dirt paths where Thoroughbreds enjoy their morning gallops. 
 
Chantilly race course and training center, a bit more than 30 miles north of Paris, is in today’s racing news, hosting the French Derby (Prix du Jockey Club, June 2) and the French Oaks (Prix de Diane, June 16).

Horses run past Les Grandes Ecuries at Chantilly
Racing Post Photo

An article in Sports Illustrated (June 8, 1964) named Chantilly “the most beautiful racetrack in the world”:

Our mirror… reflects Chantilly, an hour's drive from Paris—Chantilly, with its verdant turf, its winding gallops through the birches, lindens and oaks of the ancient forest, its Renaissance château. Chantilly has been the seat of classical French racing since 1830, a place which every summer attracts those people who love beauty and good racing. Chantilly, we feel, is the fairest of them all. With the château as backdrop, restive horses and jockeys await the start, a horse takes a long lead into the woods…

The racetrack at Compiègne, near the Oise River north of Paris, dating back to 1875, is so integrated with its forest that its recent private sale is being legally contested partly because the forestry department was not allowed a say in the transaction. Its surrounding structures, in half-timbered style, add some old English flavor to the landscape architecture.

The Finish Line at Compiegne

The quality of the landscape architecture of most French tracks is enhanced by the fact that people get there by walking from the train station. With only minimal parking areas needed, you don’t find rows of cars breaking up the bucolic view.

The landscape architecture of Longchamp, in the Boulogne Forest east of Paris, is punctuated by the presence of a legendary windmill on the far turn, as well as an 1860’s man-made waterfall across from the backstretch.  

Part of the fun of going racing in these tracks-in-the-woods is coming out of the footpaths and seeing the forest suddenly open its curtains before you into a race track. For Fontainebleau, my racing partner Alan Kennedy and I took the train from Paris (Gare de Lyon station) and got off 35 minutes later at the elegant town of Bois le Roi, already within the forest. Using the contour map published by the Institut Géographique National (map 2417 OT).

We left the town going west on a residential street until making a left on the Routes des Ventes Bouchard walking path. At the first fork in the wooded path, we took the second right (south) on Route de la Butte Saint-Louis, which ended at Departmental Route D606. We turned left on the roadside for a few meters. To avoid the cars on D606, we turned right toward the backstretch (still invisible behind the forest) on Route de Luxembourg. As soon as we came out into a clearing, the track spread magnificently before us and we turned left. But it still took awhile to get from the backstretch to the grandstand. All in all, round trip to and from the train station was only 7 ½ miles.

For Chantilly, take the train from Gare du Nord until the Orry-la-Ville stop (or you can cheat and continue directly to Chantilly). From Orry la Ville, get out of the station on the left side of the tracks, walk through the parking lot in the same direction as the train, go under the train bridge and cross a road into the forest. Follow the path along the train tracks until your second right. Essentially, you are simply going a little deeper into the forest to get away from the trains but still walking parallel to the tracks. The halfway point is a descent to a pretty lake, where you come upon a medieval tower (Château de la Reine Blanche) that houses an outdoor café. Alan and I did this trip once on our bikes and a second time on foot.

Château de la Reine Blanche

 
Following the lake, which is set in a hole in the ground, re-ascend on the other side and continue in the same direction as the train tracks. Any number of paths will lead you in the direction of Chantilly.

You know you’re near when you cross hoof-printed training tracks, and then it will be only a few minutes to the paddock and the track.

It’s 7 ½ miles from Orry to the track, passing through the contiguous forests of Coye and Chantilly. You can avoid a return walk by taking the train back to Paris from the Chantilly station. On the map, the black line refers to the train tracks. Always keep to the right of the train tracks and you will not miss the track.
With the exercise and clean, fresh air, the handicapping mind will be ready to operate at maximum capacity.

The castle at Chantilly can be seen directly from the grandstand. On the other hand, the castle at Fontainebleau requires an additional hike south from the track: or take a taxi for a few minutes over a much more direct route.

Guest Post: The Road Through the Kentucky Derby

by Mark Cramer

   The last time that a Kentucky Derby winner was able to come back and win the Breeders’ Cup Classic was in 1990 with Unbridled. The year before, Sunday Silence accomplished the same feat.
The subsequent two-decade absence of Kentucky Derby valedictorians in the BC Classic winners’ circle is not simply a question of age. In France, where 3-year-olds regularly win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, it is very rare that a French Derby winner goes on to win the Arc. Since the year 2000, only one French Derby winner has come back to triumph in the Arc, and that was Dalakhani in 2003.
   Three-year-old BC Classic winners fit in two categories. The first group includes those that bypassed the Kentucky Derby. A.P. Indy was scratched in 1992, while handlers of Concern (1994) and Tiznow (2000) chose not to run in the Derby. The 2008 BC Classic winner, Raven’s Pass, skipped his own 3-year-old derby, the Epsom Derby.
   The second group of 3-year-old BC Classic winners is comprised of horses that were not fully matured for the Kentucky Derby but ran and finished in the money: Cat Thief (1999) and Curlin (2007), both finishing third in the Derby.
   Looking through and past the Kentucky Derby, horses that ran in the Derby but did not win seem to have eclipsed Derby winners as stallions. I admit having difficulty singling out any one of the dazzling array of sire stats, so excuse me if my own reading is slanted. I am considering horses that have run in the Kentucky Derby since the year 2000, or horses that bypassed the Derby as 3-year-olds within the same period.
   The three leading sires among Kentucky Derby winners since 2000 are Street Sense, Smarty Jones and Fusaichi Pegasus. But ahead of them in many of the sire stats that I checked, including the TDN Year-to-Date Earnings General Sire List, are horses that, in retrospect, used the Derby as a prep for their ultimate stallion career. They include:

Tapit (9th 2004 Derby)
Lion Heart (2nd 2004 Derby)
Harlan’s Holiday (7th 2002 Derby)
More Than Ready (4th 2000 Derby)
Hard Spun (2nd 2007 Derby)
Any Given Saturday (8th 2007 Derby) 
Afleet Alex (3rd 2005 Derby)

   To this leading-sire list we can throw in horses whose handlers bypassed the Derby for whatever reasons: Tiznow, Macho Uno and Bernardini.
   I may end with egg on my face over this argument. Street Sense might rally and pass the others, but he has been sent to Japan to stand the 2013 season. I am told that War Emblem, also in Japan, is being bred selectively, so he has no chance to accumulate the earnings of his stallion counterparts.
   But my point is that the Kentucky Derby appears to function like a prep race for later Grade I glory and/or leading sire rankings.
   By all means, point out the flaws in my argument, but at this moment, if they had futures betting for leading stallions, I would play horses that failed to win the Derby over those that won it.
   If my hypothesis proves right, does this take away from TDN’s entertaining Road to the Derby Showdown with Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato? On the contrary, when the dust settles on the 2013 Kentucky Derby, we will no longer suffer from PDDL--“Post-Dramatic Derby Letdown”--the analysis we have been following will continue to resonate, and the Road To will roll on towards another horizon.         

Guest Post: Dying, but Still Alive in the Double

by Mark Cramer

   Philosopher Daniel Klein paraphrases Aristotle in his book, Travels with Epicurus: "As Aristotle mercilessly noted, there is absolutely nothing to look forward to in old, old age."
   Back to the 1980s--I taught a class at Los Angeles City College called "Probability Theory as Applied to Horse Race Handicapping." Many of my students knew more than I did, so this course became a dialogue centered around past performances. My only distinction was having been able to convince the administration to schedule a non-credit class of this irreverence.
   Students would often register for the class semester after semester. One of those regulars was named Jim. At one point he began to not show up and eventually I learned that he had a terminal form of cancer. The students took turns visiting him, discussing the card and taking out his bets to Santa Anita or Hollywood Park (there were no outlets for phone or on-line betting at the time).
   I once asked Jim if this was all too much for him. Perhaps we were being too intrusive and we should let him rest.
   "On the contrary," he said, "this gives me something to look forward to each day!"
   It wasn't the action itself that kept him going in those terrible days, but rather, being able to read the past performances, and then make intelligent projections on uncertain events. Even when immobile, this gave him a chance to remain active.
   Since then I've known a few other guys who played the horses until their death. Other forms of entertainment had lost meaning to them. Seeing a movie, for example, made no sense because the ending of a film is already determined. But with a horse race, the ending is undetermined and we, the players, can get involved in predicting what will happen. This is not passively entertainment. We're actively involved.
   A couple of years ago, I "worked" with a betting partner in Oklahoma. We researched handicapping methodologies and searched for the elusive automatic bet. I had designed a computer methodology that involved art as much as science, but it had bugs. Ken helped work out the bugs, dialoguing with the software specialist, and urging for changes here and there, based on his at-the-track tests. Together, long-distance, we played the method. 
   Ken was then hit by a particularly virulent form of cancer. During the period of his illness, I would ask him to be honest with me and let me know if this was too much effort for him to continue.
   "Are you kidding?" he said. "This is what gives me energy to hang on."
   On days when it got too painful, Ken's loving wife drove to Remington to put in his bets. The uncertainty of each racing day was an antidote for the certainty of his nearing death. I suppose we could call this "therapeutic uncertainty."
   Before he died, he sent me some spreadsheets of our bets, showing that we had profits in both our win plays and the exactas. We were not winning enough to brag about it, but hell, these were automatic wagers, which, according to the experts, must inevitably fail. Ken and I were both thrilled with our defiance. 
   Ken soon passed away. I have not been able to go back to that method. We had worked so intensely on it that no other partner could take his place. 
   You might ask whether this horse play is all good for the family of the terminally ill person. I can only say that when a life-ending illness eventually descends upon me, my wife, children and friends will find me much less grumpy if I can still have a chance every day to feel alive with anticipation.    
   I used to visit Canterbury Park each summer and I got to know Dave the Bartender, who gleefully shared the intellectual stimulation he derived from the day's or evening's race card. Dave was a true student of the game. When he came down with terminal cancer, it did not stop him from handicapping the races. 
   I wrote an obituary for Dave and his daughter sent me a thank you note:
   "You wrote about his optimism, his love of being at the track, and his respect for the game as a whole. You couldn't have been more right. I wanted to let you know that his respect for the game included his respect for the players"
   Later she added, "We are planning to have a portion of my dad's ashes spread on the finish line at Canterbury. Can you think of anything more perfect?"
   From these experiences I reckon that "being alive in the double" might be more than a simple metaphor.

Can Orfevre become the first Japanese winner of the Arc de Triomphe?

--Mark Cramer

   On Sept. 16, the day of the three preps at Longchamp for the G1 Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe--all at the mile-and-a-half distance--Orfevre (Stay Gold), the current 5/2 favorite in the books and potentially the first Japanese horse to win the Arc, raced behind fractions of 1:36.34 for the first seven furlongs (Prix Foy). And in the 3-year-old prep (Prix Niel), Saônois (Chichicastenango) did 1:36.48 for the first seven furlongs, with a late burst so visually impressive that it prompted André Fabre to withdraw his own 3-year-old from the Arc.  But in the Filly and Mare prep (Prix Vermeille), a more meaningful Group I race, last year's Arc runner-up, Shareta (Sinndar), did 1:29.50 for the first 7f.
   Shareta's final time was more than five seconds faster than the other two!
Some French journalists excuse the slow times of the first two preps since they were only a walk in the park. The trainer of Orfevre says that his horse was only 75% ready in the Prix Foy. But can a prep race be too slow to prepare a horse?
   As a red-blooded American horseplayer, I have trouble imagining that Shareta will finish behind these other two horses in the Arc, unless the surface becomes yielding. (Shareta wants firm going.) 
In last year’s Arc, Shareta was second, but she lost by a huge five lengths to Danedream (Lomitas), the German filly. Because of agonizingly unfortunate quarantine problems, my early pick Danedream has been withdrawn.
   In Ascot’s G1 King George VI and Queen Elizabeth S., Danedream finished a short neck ahead of Nathaniel (Galileo), a Gosden horse that was favored in last year’s Arc until being remuctantly withdrawn because of the hard surface. With Danedream’s scratch, Nathaniel became my pick. But Nathaniel too has now been withdrawn, due to a fever. These two defections followed the withdrawal of Snow Fairy, third in last year’s edition. Perhaps we can begin speaking of a decimated field.  (Nathaniel will get ‘em back in the Breeders’ Cup Turf.) 
   Less than two lengths behind Danedream and Nathaniel at Ascot, was the O’Brien horse, St Nicolas Abbey (Montjeu), winner of last year’s GI Breeders' Cup Turf. Another Arc challenger, Sea Moon (Beat Hollow), finished fifth at Ascot, three-quarters of a length behind St Nick, and second in the BC Turf. Sea Moon would relish a soft surface.
   But one horse is single-handedly raising the GDP of several countries. An unprecedented 70 Japanese journalists have been accredited for the Arc, all of them bringing money from friends and family to bet on Orfevre.
   The 2006 Arc now looks like a dress rehearsal. Then, the Japanese odds-on fave Deep Impact finished 3rd (subsequently DQ'd from purse money from an unintentional drug infraction), and the place-show price (“placé") was higher than the win would have been. Losing win tickets on Deep Impact are collectors’ items.
   If the Deep Impact phenomenon kicks in, Orfevre may be wildly overbet, allowing the player to bet against and play several other contenders with inflated odds. If so, we must also consider Saônois, who looked the most impressive of them all on prep day, having no room throughout the long stretch, but finally rocketing through a small opening.
   Orfevre has defeated a couple of previous Japanese Arc participants. The Japanese horse Nakayama Festa was second in the 2010 Arc de Triomphe at 27-1, behind Workforce, but then 12th in the 2011 edition, with Workforce 11th. Last year’s Arc, including Shareta, came up too strong for them.
Some rain is forecast during the week, seeming to assure a less-than-firm surface. Orfevre had only one career race over a yielding surface and he won it. 
   A sleeper might be O’Brien’s Imperial Monarch, now the only Galileo horse in the field, with only four career races, three of them wins plus a big disappointment in the French Derby won by Saônois (bad start, spirited finish), Imperial Monarch came back to win the July 14 Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp. But that race rarely produces Arc winners, and the horse he beat, Fabre’s Last Train, was withdrawn from the Arc after a disappointing Prix Niel.

   Fabre’s Meandre (Slickly) is competent, but is regularly defeated by one or another of the above horses. Gosden’s Starboard (Zamindar) is a Group 3 winner against a moderate field--he can improve! Kesampour (King's Best), fifth in the Niel and a close fourth in the French Derby with much trouble, seems unlikely. But beware: the Aga Khan’s second horse often wins a big race. Two fillies that were left in the wake of Shareta in the Vermeille, Solemia (Poliglote) and Yellow and Green (Monsun), also seem unlikely. Masterstroke (Monsun), with four wins in six efforts, cannot be excluded, but the horses he’s beaten are no Group 1 quality. He’s 8/1 in the ante post.

   Finally, O’Brien’s Camelot (Montjeu), listed as possible, is getting lots of ante post action at 7/2 because he’s offered as “non-runner, no bet.” Dominating a supposedly weak 3-year-old crop, Camelot failed to win the British Triple Crown with a second in the marathon St. Leger, a race that does not produce Arc winners and was probably too long for him. If in, he figures to get overbet with all the Brits in the grandstand.       
   Orfevre has 9 wins in 15 tries and ranks sixth on the planet. His trainer Yasutoshi Ikee worked under Sir Michael Stoute and Neil Drysdale before going it alone. Taking no chances, he’s using a top French rider, Christophe Soumillon, winner of two Arcs in nine tries. Good chance, but can we take the low odds?
   Considering the potential odds differential if Orfevre is indeed overbet, Shareta’s 7/1 ante post odds would go up, as would Saônois’ 8/1. As long as the surface is either firm or good, I will make a wager of 20 Euros on Shareta (10 win/10 placé), with any winnings going to the Inflammatory Bowel Disease charity. Bet is off if soft or yielding.

 

See Shareta’s Tuesday workout, and watch the Aga Khan watcing:

   In the first leg of our charity ride, we cycled 149 bicycle kilometers, so we owe 51 to fulfill our promised 200 km. We will do these 51 with two round trips via the scenic route to Longchamp for the Saturday pre-Arc and Sunday Arc cards. Fifty-one kilometers does not sound like a worthy challenge except that I must ride them in a suit-and-tie: the Draconian dress code for credentialed journalists. I’ll be the only journalist arriving by bike.
   My riding/betting partner Alan Kennedy, on the other hand, is sticking to his principles. He will forego press privileges in order to dress more humanely.

Here’s the link to our first leg
http://thetdnblog.blogspot.fr/2012/09/race-against-ibd-diseases-stage-one.html

And about the disease we are trying to defeat:
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/health/jennifer-jaff-legal-advocate-for-the-ill-dies-at-55.html?emc=eta1&_r=0

 

RACE AGAINST IBD DISEASES: STAGE ONE

By Mark Cramer

Our goal, in two stages: cycle 200 kilometers (125 miles), arriving at race courses each time, where we make a “thematic” wager. The bet symbolizes the dilemma of many who suffer from inflammatory bowel diseases (Crohn’s and ulcerative colitis) who must “handicap” from a “field” of medications, with only approximate probabilities of success. There is no cure, as yet, for this painful and disabling autoimmune disease but a good “pick” of medication can offer relief and sometimes remission.  Our bicycle voyage is raising money through donations to support research for a cure. (See previous reports here and here, or you may donate here.)

BEFORE: map in hand, fresh and ready to roll,
at chateau Meung-sur-Loire

Let’s start with the ending of Stage One: bottom-level country track of Tours (Loire region). Yes, we got there, but not without some daunting challenges during the 149 kilometers.

At the track, Alan Kennedy and I confronted a type of racing we were unaccustomed to betting. The Tours track is remote from the main circuits, with only five race cards per year. Five of today’s races were for trotters (on grass!) and four were thoroughbred races. The small grandstand (cement benches) was packed, the crowd spilling out into grassy areas. In 88-degree heat, the best seat was on a bench under a tree.

The track is near a big-box suburb, but the grounds themselves are seductively green, with wooded background.



 AFTER: 140 kilometers later, worn out, beaten down, at the rail:
Tours-Chambray race course

Our bet for the charity came in the 8^th race, the last Tbred event. Remember the rule. We make the wager, and if we win (big “if”), the winnings go to the charity. The race was for amateur riders, adding wagering insecurity. We wanted to make a lot with a moderate bet; we staggered the combinations so that there could be a “saver” payoff. What we really wanted was a cure, which would happen if our picks finished one-two-three in the 11-horse field.

We played the 1, Air Chris (low-percentage rider Madmoiselle Artu had won on this horse). We chose the 4, Aux Quatre Saisons, because he had once won at this same track, but that was on a heavy rain-drenched surface (today’s surface was parched-firm from the lack of rain). Our third horse, the 8, Sleuth, showed a promising win at a lower-level track we had never heard of, only his second career try.

Metaphorically, our handicapping paralleled making an iffy choice of medications for IBD disease.

Our result turned out like the results of a typical IBD medication. We lost the race because the 5 horse won. However, our 1-horse was second and our 4-horse third (the 8 finishing fourth). Since two of our horses were in the money, we won $20 in a consolation payoff. That will be added to the pool of donations.   

In summary, we won a bit of relief without winning the long-term remission.

And our trip? I planned it for a season when the average temperature is 70 F. But we were hit with as much as 18 degrees higher. Whenever Alan and I take a cycling trip, the temperatures zoom up uncomfortably the day of our departure, and then plunge back to normal just after we return.

We departed in the fresh morning, the moon remaining starkly visible in the daylight sky, from a town just south of Orleans. I, the pessimist, griped about the imminent spike in temperatures. Alan, the optimist, rejoiced that his no-rain dance had worked.

The Loire. Our ride was mostly along the Loire, the last wild river in Europe. The river itself has fought off ship transport and tourist cruises by forming hundreds of evolving island obstacles. This moody river is sometimes Zen, sometimes raging, and occasionally both these personalities swirl simultaneously in a danse macabre. Beaches are here and there, but wading can be dangerous, the locals say, because of unexpected spots of quicksand. On the chaste islands, heron eggs are protected from the foxes ashore.

Bicycling the Loire. They call it Loire à Vélo: 500 miles of sign-posted bike paths along the river and numerous other well-kept cycling routes nearby, often through pungent forests. Certain bike-path itineraries take you from one castle to another.

These facilities include cycling paths (protected), country roads with virtually zero car traffic where bicycles have the right of way, and packed dirt-bike paths. Bicyclers of all ages populate the network, making frequent and long stops. Alan and I had to make first post and painfully, we let this beauty flow by too quickly.      

Our trip. The itinerary took us through the grainy castle-fortress towns of Meung-sur-Loire and Beaugency. The halfway point was the city of Blois, with its stone bridges crossing a wider portion of the Loire and its castle with double-spiral staircases.



In Blois, at the bridge over the Loire River

Following our riverbank picnic, the sun hammered down, but the bike paths remained soothingly cool. The castle in Chaumont is perched on a cliff, built into limestone. We stopped for a drink at an outdoor café. Our goal was the city of Amboise, with a medieval fortress castle forged into the cliff.

Our bed-and-breakfast reservation came with a promised garden picnic table next to a weeping willow and a pear tree. The owner told us we needed to arrive before six because she closes down after that. Her excuse: her breakfasts are home-made, including the breads, and she wakes up with the roosters to prepare them.

For us, this meant a change from the usual riding strategy. At 4:30 pm, when the sun was strongest, we emerged from the protective bike paths and faced the final 11 kilometers of energy-sapping heat. Normally we would stop under tree cover, where I’d dump my backpack as a pillow in the grass, for a glorious siesta.

But the B&B schedule forced us to bear on. I felt the onset of heat stroke, even as I drank water continuously.  You’re supposed to halt strenuous exercise in such situations, but we had our deadline. I doused my head with water and rolled on. When we arrived at the B&B, I cooled down for an hour and was ready for a gourmet picnic that Alan had gone and picked out from a green grocer: shrimp, artichoke hearts, ripe cheese, garden tomatoes, crusty, grainy bread.



Troglodyte wine caves: need to get to the track,
no time to stop for a taste

Day 2 seemed easier. Tours was a straight shot along the river. We passed the troglodyte town of Montlouis-sur-Loire, admiring cave dwellings and wine cellars with their façades pointing out from the limestone cliff.  

At Tours we stopped to see the Gothic cathedral, resting in the shady garden of an art museum. Tours is located between two rivers, the Loire and the Cher. To get to the race course, we crossed the Cher. At the last few yards of a tree-lined bike path, I stopped to ask a pedestrian how to get to the hippodrome.

“Just go straight ahead!” She took a long look and me: “But it’s a brutally steep hill and you may not make it.” You could see real fright in her eyes. We had to navigate through a dangerous cloverleaf, with no respite from the sun: my second opportunity to get heatstroke.

Eventually, we got to the top. It was like Jack and the Beanstalk: a very different place up there, but now the ogres were big box stores, furniture, clothing, home improvement, sports equipment, office supplies; the only break in the treeless parking-lot landscape was a McDonalds and KFC. This place was a crime against humanity, “the shopping lot of Tours,” according to locals.

We turned off the strip, following the sign for hippodrome, things got greener. For the first time in 10 hours of cycling, we found cookie-cutter housing clusters. Beyond, the race course was our oasis.

Distance traveled: 92km from south of Orléans to Amboise and 57 km from Amboise to the race track (this count includes the round-trip between my apartment to the Paris train station.