Guest Post: The Case for Flintshire in the BC Turf

--Mark Cramer

There are three essential reasons why Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}) should be able to win the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf: track condition, the level of competition he's confronted, and the André Fabre cycle. It is often noted that horses coming from the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe face the constraint of a peak race plus short interval. However, both of Fabre's BC Turf winners, In the Wings in 1990 and Shirocco in 2006, came from the Arc, where they each finished fourth. So we can call it a pattern match for Flintshire. Call it the Arc de Triomphe as prep race.

 

Fabre's Arcangues, winner of the 1993 BC Classic at 133-1, "prepped" the day prior to the Arc, finishing 10th on a heavy track in the Prix Dollar.

Like Arcangues, Flintshire figures to improve on a dry surface. Given his record, Flintshire should relish drought-stricken California, where he will be delivered a firm surface. His record on tracks listed as soft would not warrant a trip to the BC: four races with a second-place finish, two fourths and an eighth. On tracks listed as good, he's won three and finished second three times. His seconds in the Epson Coronation Cup to Cirrus des Aigles (Fr) (Even Top {Ire}) and to Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}) in the recent Arc put him in the most elite company. Several of the horses that finished behind him in the Arc could have ended up favored in the BC Turf.

The problem is that Flintshire's win payout, that is, if he wins, figures to be less than the generous place return I got from him in the Arc. He is currently listed as race favorite in both Britain and the USA. Much more often than not, the heavy Euro favorite finishes behind a higher-odds Euro horse in BC races.

Such was the case in last year's BC Turf, when the even-money The Fugue (GB) (Dansili {GB}) got caught by Magician (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), trained by Aidan O'Brien, who was 7-1. Like Flintshire, Magician does his best racing when the surface gets firmer, but needs a patient ride.

Similarly, Michael Stoute's Telescope (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has excelled when the surface is listed as good-to-firm. Telescope was defeated by the filly Taghrooda (GB) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) at his best distance of 12 furlongs at Ascot. The difference was three lengths. If you believe in "who beat who," then Flintshire looks good by comparison, having finished a length and a quarter ahead of the wide-racing Taghrooda in the Arc. The who-beat-whoers would also have to consider the horse that defeated Magician in the Arlington Million, Hardest Core (Hard Spun).

At this writing in the British books, Flintshire and Telescope are vying for favoritism between 7-2 and 4-1. You can get as much as 6-1 on Magician. Hardest Core is 12-1. The former European horse Main Sequence (Aldebaran) has followed the pattern of horses that have underachieved in Europe because they have craved firmer surfaces. He has thrived for Graham Motion on firm surfaces in the USA and his odds have been coming down to around 6-1. The American odds thus far have Flintshire at 7-2, Telescope 5-1 and Magician at 6-1, with Main Sequence, distinguished for winning photo finishes, also at 6-1.

Most factors still give Flintshire the edge, except for one: the odds. Can the man who has produced Breeders' Cup winners in double- and triple-figure payoffs do it again when he's got the favorite? Fabre faces multiple BC Turf-winning trainers Stoute and O'Brien, as well as the former Euro now longtime American, Graham Motion, who's also won a BC Turf.

Let's see the odds. Backing heavily bet Euro horses in the BC is like trying to squeeze blood from a turnip. With all the contention, we should demand a double-figure payoff.

Guest Post: Bringing Kids Back to the Cup

--Carly Silver

   As a preteen living in Connecticut, I knew that very few of my peers shared my love of horse racing. While I pored over Edward L. Bowen's weighty tomes on great sires and mares of the past, other kids read comic books or Judy Blume novels. While I scoured pages of past performances in The Blood-Horse, my partners in puberty searched the racks for Juicy Couture. Needless to say, I was in search of kindred spirits.
   So I was thrilled when my mother found an organization called Kids to the Cup (KTTC), which took young racing fans to major races and behind the scenes on the backstretch. Finally, a people with whom I could share my love of Thoroughbreds! And KTTC didn't disappoint. With this group of like-minded people, I traveled across the country to Breeders' Cups. In particular, the 2002 rendition at Arlington Park and 2004 edition at Lone Star Park were highlights.
   I also attended Triple Crown races, and, in the process, met some of my all-time heroes. Where else could I have met trainer Bob Baffert and had the opportunity to ask him why he put War Emblem's 2002 Preakness Stakes trophy on his head in the winner's circle? His reply, "Because I'm a damn fool!" was priceless.
   It's also thanks to KTTC that I met Blood-Horse writer Steve Haskin and former NBC racing analyst Charlsie Cantey. I took down their contact information; when I drew up an in-depth pedigree analysis of a 2004 Derby contender named Smarty Jones that showed the potential to get the mile-and-a-quarter distance, I sent it to them. Smarty came in first, and The Blood-Horse offered me, at age thirteen, my own digital column called "Teen Tracks." The rest, as they say, is history.
   In 2006, KTTC's founder, Trudy McCaffery, had to shut down the organization due to lack of funds. She passed away in 2007, leaving a void not only in the racing and philanthropic worlds, but also the lives of many young racing fans. Without her tireless efforts on our behalf, we never would have been able to experience the track first-hand and had our love of the sport nurtured to such a degree.
   I didn't grow up in Kentucky or on a farm with horses. No one in my family owned racehorses. I didn't live particularly close to a track. Therefore, it wasn't like I could easily become involved in racing by myself. Thanks to KTTC, I engulfed myself in racing lore and learned the ways of the track--and today, I am fortunate enough to still be just as in love with this sport as the day I watched my first Kentucky Derby.
   My generation of racing enthusiasts was fortunate enough to have the likes of Ms. McCaffery and KTTC's director, John DeSantis (fondly known to us as "Johnny D."), to encourage our love of the sport. But what about today's fledgling fans? What organizations do they have to have them meet their equine and human idols, to take them to the backstretch, to be thrilled by the stories of champions gone by?
   There has been some movement to create more fan support. In particular, America's Best Racing and Horse Racing Nation are excellent examples of building digital communities for racing enthusiasts. But talking about horses online is one thing. Getting to chat with trainers in the flesh, walk the backstretch, pet a future champion--these real-life experiences are far more valuable than sitting behind a computer.
   Ms. McCaffery was generous enough to donate her time and money to KTTC. But, going forward, more than one person should pioneer an effort to get young fans to the track. In a day and age where publications claim that horse racing isn't a viable sport, we need to cultivate the next generation of fans to ensure that Thoroughbred racing stays alive.
   Horse racing doesn't have a single commissioner (yet). But, along with medication issues, our diverse leaders need to agree upon how to encourage fan development. Tangible time at the track isn't realistic for everyone without some help from the industry itself, so let's make it happen.
   For example, the Breeders' Cup is in six weeks. Every year, KTTC would show fans from around the country the ropes at the Cup; they could experience the thrill of races live. It's too late to revive KTTC for this Cup, but why not make this an active item on the Jockey Club's agenda for next year? In 2015, the Cup will be run at Keeneland, heart of the Bluegrass State.
   I can tell you firsthand that nothing delights a kid who wants to eat, sleep, and breathe horses than actually doing so at a seminal event at one of the greatest tracks in the country. Meeting Wise Dan would be a thrill for any racing fan. Since we'll be in Kentucky next year. What if stud farms donated tours of their facilities? Kids could see what Tiznow or Orb look like up close, rather than watching their wins on YouTube.
   Bobby Frankel, D. Wayne Lukas, Todd Pletcher, Bob and Beverly Lewis... meeting these luminaries of 1990's and early 2000's racing became memories forever ingrained in my mind. Each individual kindly took time out of his or her day to welcome us into the sport, answer our questions, and show us around the backstretch. We truly were a herd of horse lovers unto ourselves, but I wouldn't have had it any other way.

The author with Bobby Frankel

Guest Post: European Horses That Surprise in the Breeders' Cup

--Mark Cramer

   Over the history of the Breeders' Cup, foreign horses that were dominant in Europe have often fallen short of their expectations in the U.S. They were well-adapted to Euro racing, and American racing turned out to be different. For every Goldikova that succeeded, there are so many that disappointed at low odds.
   On the other hand, Euro horses that are not well-adapted to European racing often ship to the U.S. with less-than-stellar records and surprise, at a price. Last year, the example was the French-based filly  Flotilla (Mizzen Mast), who much preferred the slick Santa Anita surface over the heavy Euro courses she'd raced on and upended the Juvenile Fillies Turf at 11-1.
   The reasons for these turnabouts are not easy to figure. For example, why did Domedriver win of the 2002 BC mile following victories against lower levels of competition, in Group 2's and 3's? I put this question to Domedriver's rider Thierry Thulliez. Thulliez suspected that Domedriver's powerful turn of foot, his strong burst of speed, was best served over the shorter stretch drive at an American race track like Arlington.
   On the other hand, rider Ioritz Mendizabal told me that his Spirit One was able to win the Arlington Million in 2008 because his front-running or early-paced racing style was much better served over firmer American tracks, where his horse wouldn't have to "bear the brunt of the race".
   Christophe Lemaire assured me that in the case of his mount Flotilla that the filly simply preferred the firmer surface compared to the heavier ground in Europe.
   When Sir Michael Stoute's trainee Dank (GB) (Dansili {GB}) won the GI Beverly D S. this past summer, some players were surprised because Dank had only been successful in Europe in Group 2s and 3s, a profile similar to that of Domedriver.
   Dank comes back again for the Saturday’s Filly & Mare Turf, possibly as the favorite. It must be said that second time in the U.S. for a shipper is often more difficult than the first time. In the same race, we find another underachieving Euro, Romantica (GB) (Galileo {Ire}). Her only Group 1 win came in a suspect six-horse field at Deauville this past summer. However, the horse that finished third in that race behind Romantica, Dalkala (Giant’s Causeway) came back to win the prestigious G1 Prix de l'Opera for fillies and mares on Arc day, a race that Romantica ducked.
   So now we find Romantica at Santa Anita instead of in the Prix de l'Opera, and we can wonder if this filly can surpass a record that includes mainly Group 2 and Group 3 performances. Like Domedriver and Dank, she appears to be a cut below. But trainer Andre Fabre, no stranger to surprising Breeders’ Cup wins (such as Arcangues, Banks Hill and Shirocco), may have felt his filly would prefer the surface at Santa Anita over that of Longchamp.
   Romantica is by champion sire Galileo, but more interestingly, her dam is none other than Banks Hill, who won the 2001 version of this same race. Romantica was twice a beaten favorite on turf surfaces labeled "very soft" and may prefer the firm American surface that her mom loved at Belmont. She was also trounced in this year's Prix Vermeille. The surface was listed as "soft," but I was there that day and everyone in the press box was convinced it was indeed "very soft."
   Nothing is inevitable in racing. Romantica finds herself in a tough field of 10 that includes some rivals who have already won over the Santa Anita turf course, and then again, there is also Dank. Both Romantica and Dank fit the paradigm of Euro horses that move up when coming to America, and Romantica could be flying under the radar. 

Romantica                                                                                     Racing Post

Breeders' Cup Memories 1995-Present

by Alan Carasso

Though I have obviously seen the first 11 Breeders’ Cups on tape, my first real experience with Championship Day came in 1995 when I watched the events of the day on an absolutely abysmal day on Long Island unfold from the relative comfort of my suburban Chicago basement. I even had a few ‘locals’ to root for, as Golden Gear was in the Sprint and Mariah’s Storm faced the unenviable task of trying to run with Inside Information and Heavenly Prize in the Distaff. Neither horse did especially well, though the day ended in memorable fashion (more on that below). In any event, here are my top 10 Breeders’ Cup moments. Some generic, some gambling-related, all memorable.

10--Singletary wins the ‘04 Mile at Lone Star. Most of us have seen the piece TVG put together on the Little Red Feather group in the day or two leading up to the race. Each time I see the bunch hooting and hollering on that platform (which I think is going to collapse at any moment), I feel like I was part of them. Singletary, trained by the unassuming Don Chatlos, was a sneaky third when prepping in the Oak Tree Mile, but sat a tough trip and boxed on well enough for third. He was dismissed at 17-1 on the big day, made a ‘blitz’ for the lead (thanks, Tom D.) turning for home and held sway late. Should Antonius Pius have won? Hmm, maybe, but I’ll take it!

9--Falbrav/Mandella at Santa Anita in 2003. I became smitten with this Italian-based horse in early 2002, when he won a Group 1 at home going 10 furlongs in 1:57 and some change, then my good friend Steve DeCaspers and I lucked into the chance to bet him (thanks Peter K.) in that year’s Japan Cup and listened in the wee morning hours as he won by a nose (sorry for the wake-up call, Steve). The next year, all Falbrav did was win the G1 Prix d’Ispahan, G1 Coral-Eclipse, G1 Juddmonte International and G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. He was gamely routed for the Turf and I was betting him, come hell or high water, even if that 12th furlong was a huge question mark. Sure enough, he was in front after a mile and three-eighths and still there after a mile and three-eighths and 217 yards, only to be gunned down by the dead-heating Johar and High Chaparral. The former gave Richard Mandella one of his four winners on the day, an amazing record that should stand the test of time.

8--My first Cup in person, Woodbine 1996. I didn’t really have plans to do so, but I was offered tickets to the one and only Breeders’ Cup to be held outside the borders of the United States in suburban Toronto. Aside from getting used to exactors and triactors, the day proved a fun one, with especially good performances from Jewel Princess and Lit de Justice. Of course, it ended with a stirring stretch duel in the Classic with Alphabet Soup, Louis Quatorze and a gallant Cigar slugging it out to the bitter end.

7--Anyone who knows me is aware that I am the world’s biggest Pollard’s Vision fan (even those Red Bankers who occupied workspace beneath ours know as well!). So, when a totally unheralded low five-figure chestnut filly from his first crop took her connections to the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, it was cause for celebration. Unfortunately, Blind Luck didn’t get the best trip that day, but the ride she took me and a few other Pollard devotees on remains unforgettable.

6--No Breeders’ Cup top 10 would be complete without the 2001 renewal at Belmont Park, which took place just a handful of weeks after the tragedy of that second Tuesday of September. Tiznow was looking to become the first back-to-back Classic winner, and though his season was not a straight-forward one, he came through. I can vividly recall that stretch drive--the massive Cal-bred’s one stride for every two taken by Sakhee, it seemed--followed by one of Durkin’s more memorable lines: "Tiznow wins it for America!" Really evokes a chill to this day.

5--Having spent my first 31-plus years in the northwest suburbs of Chicago, the 2002 Breeders’ Cup at Arlington, a stone’s throw from my childhood home, was always going to be special. It was a day of majestic performances from some of racing’s royalty (the Lewises, the Phippses, the Niarchoses) and some tragedy and was capped by a monster upset in the Classic. The thermometer may have read something like 43 that day--it felt much more like 33 out there on the apron--but to attend the Cup in my hometown was very special.

4--Buck’s Boy--1998. I was about two months into my new gig at the TDN, having just relocated from the Land of Lincoln, and lo and behold, here’s this blue-collar Illinois-bred who’s one of the favorites in the Turf. I spent plenty of afternoons watching ‘ Bucky,’ run in races like the Milwaukee Avenue H. (he lost to the great Polar Expedition) and the W.H. Bishop H., but here he was on racing’s biggest stage at one of its famed venues, Churchill Downs. He was a 7-2 chance that year and maybe it wasn’t one of the greatest renewals of the Turf ever staged, but he did his thing from the front and held sway to become (and he remains) the only horse bred in Illinois to win a Breeders’ Cup race.

3--2000 Sprint at Churchill. I remember sitting in the race book at Bally’s in Las Vegas in August 1998, when a son of Java Gold was looking to follow up on a 15-length maiden win in a Del Mar allowance. Kona Gold whipped them that day by seven and was third in that year’s Sprint before going one better at Gulfstream in 1999. He came into the 2000 Sprint with four wins from five outings that year and was a key horse for many, including me. But the real treat in the race for this gambler was a rangy and likeable chestnut named Bet On Sunshine, who loved it beneath the Twin Spires and rarely missed the top three. Bet On Sunshine was a ripe eight years of age when he lined up for the 2000 Sprint and the play was Kona on top and Bet On Sunshine to come with his patented late run and fill second or third. Well, sure enough, he was 12th after a rough start, but rallied past pacesetting Caller One into third at 20-1. To make things even nicer, Honest Lady, a 31-1 shot against the boys, flew home for second. The triple returned $2,076. I only had it for the penny, but that result still brings a smile to my face.

2--Cigar, 1995 Classic. More than any other horse, Cigar really captured my imagination and is really owed the credit for making me as big a fan of horse racing as I am. We all remember the passing of the baton when Holy Bull went wrong on the backstretch of the ‘95 Donn and a new star was born. The Paulson runner was campaigned ambitiously, with seven subsequent starts prior to the Cup at five different tracks from coast to coast. The underfoot conditions worried even trainer Bill Mott that dreary day as Cigar tried to complete a perfect 10-for-10 season, and the 5-year-old was a handful for Jerry Bailey before he cut him loose "with a dramatic rush" on the sweeping final turn. It was never in doubt from there for the "inconquerable, invincible, unbeatable" Cigar.

1--Street Sense, 2006 Juvenile. Street Cry really hadn’t established himself when this son of Bedazzle (by Dixieland Band) came around, and few in attendance for his maiden-breaker at Arlington Park that August would have believed that the Jim Tafel homebred would go on to super-stardom. For reasons somewhat difficult for me to articulate, I was a believer, and backed him when third in the Grade III Futurity at Arlington and when he covered all sorts of ground at Keeneland in the Grade I Breeders’ Futurity. Here and there, I’d field a call from Dan Pride at Darley, and he’ll tell you that I never failed to mention Street Sense and how I thought he’d go on to do something big when we conversed. It was almost inconceivable to me that he would be something in the vicinity of 15-1 for the Juvenile getting back on to a conventional dirt surface with a race flow he was certain to appreciate. Back near the tail as they sizzled up front, I watched as the athletic dark bay hugged the fence with this monster move. So fast was he traveling that even Trevor Denman failed to pick him up until he was six clear into the final furlong. I think most of the Northern Hemisphere--and especially those who had the great misfortune of trying to enjoy Breeders’ Cup 2006 in a near-empty Keeneland sales pavilion (oh my, the acoustics, right Lucas?)--knew that Street Sense had given me one of my greatest scores, and in a broader sense, victories, of all time.

Feel free to chime in with your Breeders’ Cup stories and recollections. We’re inside of 10 days to another helping of Championship weekend and a whole new set of memories to be made.

Early Breeders' Cup Selections...

-Steve Sherack
  
We’re 18 days out from the Breeders’ Cup and Steve Sherack is already chomping at the bit to head to the windows. Here are some of his early selections for the two-day Championships at Santa Anita.

Classic: Flat Out
   Still going strong at the age of seven, the hard knocking Flat Out (Flatter) merits a very long look at a hefty price in the Classic. The bay’s third-place finish behind Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man in last year’s renewal is much better than it looks on paper--finished third, beaten seven lengths, with a very wide trip over a speed favoring Santa Anita surface. He may’ve bounced a bit (finished a well-beaten third as the 5-2 favorite) when attempting a remarkable GI Jockey Club Gold Cup three-peat following a tough second to loose-on-the-lead winner Alpha in the Saratoga slop off a layoff in the GI Woodward S. Aug. 31. Flat Out’s run some awfully fast races this term--116 Beyer in GIII Westchester win; 107 Beyer in GII Suburban H. tally; and a 109 Beyer when beaten a head in the aforementioned Woodward--and it’s hard not to be looking for someone to pick up the pieces in a race that figures to produce a wicked early pace. More than capable of getting his picture taken if he’s on his game. Note: the last three winners of the Classic--Fort Larned, Drosselmeyer & Blame--all entered off in-the-money finishes in the Gold Cup.

Distaff: Authenticity
   Well into her 6-year-old season, Padua Stable’s Authenticity (Quiet American) remarkably continues to still show signs of improvement. The bay arguably ran a better race in defeat than victorious champion Beholder did over a speed-favoring strip in the GI Zenyatta S. at Santa Anita Sept. 28, coming from the back, and making a strong middle-move into slow fractions as that one was allowed a very easy early lead. Authenticity has never been better (earned a career high 104 Beyer in the Zenyatta), and she should get a much more level playing field with a faster pace very likely in the Distaff. She should fall well under the radar here, especially if the streaking sophomore Princess of Sylmar decides to make the trip to California. Extra sixteenth of a mile can’t exactly hurt her chances, either.

Juvenile: Strong Mandate
   Willing to give the impressive GI Hopeful S. winner Strong Mandate (Tiznow) another shot if the price is right (there’s no reason to believe that it won’t be, right?) in the Juvenile following his puzzling seventh in the GI Champagne S. at Belmont Oct. 5. The well-bred son of millionaire Clear Mandate (Deputy Minister) just never seemed interested from the git-go that day, and reported home 10 1/4 lengths adrift the unbeaten Havana. Expect the handsome bay to be a lot closer to the pace in his two-turn bow at Santa Anita with a likely rider change. If stablemates Will Take Charge, Oxbow, and Skyring have taught us anything this season, it’s that the Lukas runners are quite capable of bouncing back with big performances following well-beaten defeats. 

Juvenile Fillies: She’s a Tiger
   The distance is an obvious major concern, but if Hall of Famer Gary Stevens can save enough in the tank for the stretch, the speedy She’s a Tiger (Tale of the Cat) has the talent to see this thing out. The long-striding 3/4-sister to classy sprinter Smiling Tiger (Hold That Tiger) ran her heart out in a narrow defeat when negotiating two turns for the first time in the GI Chandelier S. over this course Sept. 28, and she should certainly move forward with that experience under her belt if her best-of-50 five-furlong bullet in :57.80 at Santa Anita Oct. 13 is any indication.

F/M Sprint: Book Review
   Gary and Mary West colorbearer Book Review (Giant’s Causeway), a very impressive heroine of the GII A Gleam H. at Hollywood in July, was really struggling with the track in the early going of the GI Ballerina S. at Saratoga Aug. 23, and she still came charging home to fall only a head short of Dance to Bristol. She’s done very little wrong in three prior tries at Santa Anita (3-1-2-0), including a narrow tally over Reneesgotzip and My Miss Aurelia in the 2012 GI La Brea S., and she figures to get plenty of pace to run into here. Produced by an unraced half-sister to GISW Irish Smoke, Book Review has been training up a storm for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert since returning home (six furlong bullet in 1:12.80 at SA Oct. 7), and has run some of her best races when fresh. Very hard to knock.

A Tale of Two Trips

--Brian DiDonato

   In both Grade I races run for 2-year-olds this past Saturday--the Champagne and the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity--one can make the argument that the runner-up was best. One trip was obvious, so much so that it will be blown out of proportion going forward, while the other is far less likely to be picked up on by the wagering public.
   Anyone who saw Honor Code's late run in the Champagne was rightfully impressed (click for chart and video). Devoid of early speed, the hulking son of A.P. Indy was spun very wide into the stretch (seven or eight paths by solid third-place finisher Ride On Curlin) and flew home to fall a neck short of speedy fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Havana. It was a move that just looked so good visually that it only served to add to the hype surrounding a horse who seems to already rest atop many a 2014 Derby list.
   But when all the factors are considered, it might be a performance that looked better to the naked eye than it does when subjected to scrutiny. For starters, Havana worked hard every step of the way, pressing an above-average pace from second, while Honor Code conserved his energy at the back of the pack. It's telling that pacesetter Debt Ceiling finished last, while Grand Arrival, next-closest early, finished second-to-last.
   According to Trakus data, Honor Code covered 20 ft. (~2.4 lengths) more than Havana in the Champagne, but where he covered the extra ground is important. The dark bay didn't come off the rail until he started to approach the stretch. Ground loss at this point in a race is almost never the detriment that some believe it is. In addition to keeping a horse out of trouble and free to lengthen his stride, it allows him to build up additional momentum (I'm certainly no scientist, but it's centrifugal force or something). The wider a horse (or a bike, ice skater, etc.) turns into a straight, the more inertia they'll carry. So while a horse who goes wide into the lane has to cover more ground, they make up for it with the additional forward momentum they generate by a larger arc. Ground loss is definitely a major trip factor at other points of a race, but it is much less of a detriment late on the home turn and into the straight.

Honor Code (outside) falls just short of Havana
NYRA/Coglianese

   Breeders' Futurity runner-up Smarty's Echo, meanwhile, ran very well to be second, all things considered (click for chart and video). The 11-1 shot was fairly close to an extremely fast pace (25 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter), and never found cover. He was three or four wide at best throughout the two-turn contest, and traveled 23 feet more (~2.7 lengths) than the eventual 2 3/4-length winner We Miss Artie, who drafted early before tipping out under a perfect John Velazquez ride. (Interestingly, Horse of the Year Wise Dan went down at 1-2 one race later in the Shadwell 'Turf' Mile with a Smarty's Echo-like ride from Velazquez).
   Smarty's Echo only earned a 65 Beyer Speed Figure in what looks like a mediocre renewal of the Breeders' Futurity, but he did earn an 82 Beyer previously for his Arlington maiden breaker, and figures to offer some value wherever he shows up next. He ran much better on Saturday than he will be given credit for. Honor Code, on the other hand, possesses a world of upside, but everyone sees it. He's certainly good, but will definitely be overbet next time--perhaps so much so that he could be favored over Havana if he shows up at the Breeders' Cup. Horses with Honor Code's profile often end up being money burners, and Honor Code seems like he could be one of those types.

Battle at the Breeders' Cup: Saturday

 

DAY 1 RESULTS: SS: Got blanked on day one, but had some pretty decent runs for my money out of Marketing Mix, Include Me Out and Sweet Shirley Mae. A lot more confident in my picks today, but have already started working on DiDonato to wire me some money after his big score in the Juvenile Fillies Turf just in case. Wagered: $315. Returned: $0. Net: -$315.

BD: The day started off the way it usually does for me in these contests--with a scratch. Steve and I agreed that any scratched horse’s win bet would be divided among the day’s other picks without going over the max bet, so I had an extra $5 to win on Flotilla ($205 total) because of Super Ninety Nine. The Juvenile Fillies Turf helped make it a pretty successful day, but I couldn’t connect with much else. Steve’s got plenty of ammo left, so it figures to be an exciting Saturday. Wagered: $730. Returned: $2542. Net: +$1812. 

JUVENILE TURF - SS: Should get fair value on local hopeful Gervinho, who punched home nicely to secure course-and-distance Zuma Beach. Everything Gaines sends out is pretty live right now. Play: $50.

BD: Fantastic Moon reminds me a bit of Wrote from last year, and he's the type of Euro I look for--great late kick and has already gone a mile, plus it seems like he likes firm turf. He had a bit of an excuse in the Royal Lodge. Gervinho is also interesting. Play: $150.

F/M SPRINT - SS: With an aggressive ride by Leparoux, the rapidly improving Dust and Diamonds can be very dangerous if she stays out the seven furlongs. Impossible to knock deserving chalk Groupie Doll; Rumor is my wise-guy horse for underneath. Play: $200.

BD: Groupie Doll's just supposed to win this, so I'm not going to invest much trying to beat her, but Switch is probably the best value. Everyone knows she's a better sprinter and her last three works look very upbeat. Play: $10.

DIRT MILE - SS: Fed Biz looked like one of the more promising sophomores this winter before hitting the sidelines. Ran his eye-balls out in El Cajon win off the layoff, and may’ve still been feeling the effects of that when third as the chalk in the Indiana Derby. Rail Trip interests me a little at a price here, too. Play: $200.

BD: A pace collapse seems likely. Rail Trip turns back off a pair of wide journeys, and should sit in a good stalking spot. Play: $60.

TURF SPRINT - SS: Haven’t had much luck in this race since its inception, and have no choice but to back Corporate Jungle after chasing him in his last two. Hoping the turn back in distance does the trick. Expecting/hoping for a much better price than 6-1. Play: $50.

BD: I spent forever trying to come up with a solid opinion in this race, but had no such luck--it's just too hard. Going with Unbridled's Note before I change my mind again. Play: $30.

JUVENILE - SS: Thought Capo Bastone was the real deal after his visually impressive maiden win at Del Mar, and he’s had absolutely no luck in two subsequent attempts at the top level. Today is the day. Play: $100.

BD: I really liked He's Had Enough's debut, and don't think he's had a fair chance to run in his last two. Gets first dirt and has a bullet work over the surface--better than the 30-1+ he’ll be. Play: $30.

TURF - SS: No strong opinions here, and was very unimpressed with how morning-line favorite Point of Entry looked on the track the other morning. Small play on longshot Cogito, who has every right to move forward off disappointing fourth in U.S. debut off layoff. Play: $20.

BD: The Bris speed figure Trailblazer earned for his runner-up effort in the Arroyo Secco Mile makes him look very tough here at what's his preferred trip. Same trainer as Arc runner-up Orfevre, and might help soften the blow of that tough beat. Play: $140.

SPRINT - SS: Not much of a secret who I’ll be backing in this wide-open contest if you read today’s feature on The Lumber Guy. Wasn’t crazy about him on paper, but including Gantry if he’s a big enough price after watching him train Thursday. Play: $100.

BD: I'm not sure there's as much speed as you'd expect in a renewal of the BC Sprint, and Trinniberg's pace figures put him clearly on the lead--especially with the added blinkers. His best races are just about good enough to win this. Play: $115.

MILE - SS: Obviously loves the course and will be extremely hard to pass on an uncontested early lead. Come and catch me. Play: $200.

BD: Moonlight Cloud might have been better than Excelebration in the Marois, and she's been pointing to this race for a while--it's a pretty short turnaround for the latter. Play: $140.

CLASSIC - Fort Larned has run races quick enough to win this, and I’m willing to give him a pass for third-place finish in the Gold Cup. Reminds me a lot of 2010 Classic hero Blame. Play: $265.

BD: Game On Dude will take some beating, but as crazy as it might sound in his 18th start, I think Mucho Macho Man might have enough improvement left in him to pull off the upset. Play: $95.

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Breeders' Cup Memoirs--Bobby Frankel

by Christina Bossinakis

   The 2008 Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita is without a doubt among my top BC picks, because it encompasses both the rise and denouement of one of history’s greatest American trainers, Bobby Frankel. That year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint featured Juddmonte’s Ventura, a raven-colored mare who was as fiery as she was fast, possessing as strong a sense of self as I’d ever seen in a racehorse. In fact, I remember thinking, if I could come back to this life as a horse, I would be Ventura. Closing from far off a crisp pace, Ventura left the likes of Indian Blessing and Zaftig in her dust. However, most of whom were on hand that day--myself include--had no way of knowing they had just witnessed Bobby’s final Breeders’ Cup win.
   In what would turn out to be both a figurative and literal passing of the baton, the undercard featured a young trainer making his Breeders’ Cup debut. Chad Brown, who served as one of Frankel’s main assistants for five years, went out on his own at the end of 2007 after saddling the Adena Springs-raced mare Ginger Punch prior to her victory in the GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff at Monmouth. It was at the time that I met Chad, and I made regular stops by the Frankel barn to check on the mare and chat with my new friend. Fast forward a year, Chad ventured west with a graded-stakes winning filly named Maram. Always looking for a good story, I dropped by to say hello and, following a full-blown TDN feature, and more importantly, a win in the 2008 Juvenile Fillies Turf later in the week, Chad went from backstretch to big time in the blink of an eye. 

VENTURA
Steve Sherack Photo

   In what could have been a fitting finale for her legendary trainer, Ventura returned to Santa Anita in 2009 to try and defend her Breeders’ Cup title. With owner Prince Kahlid Abdullah in attendance, she was both the sentimental and logical choice to round out the career of the Hall of Fame trainer. But it was not to be. Hampered by a modest early pace and, most unfortunate to run into the ultra-talented filly Informed Decision, Ventura mounted a gallant challenge late but had to settle for second best that day. Less than a month later, Bobby passed away after losing his battle with Cancer. There would be no storybook ending this time. And while it would have been nice to have Europe’s super star Frankel (GB) round out his career on Breeders’ Cup day in his namesake’s former stomping ground, Bobby’s legacy continues to live on through all the people and horses formerly associated with the great trainer.
   Go Awesome Feather.

Weekend Graded Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

FRIDAY

KEE R8 - GIII Phoenix S. - Cajun Breeze is 50-1 on the morning line--anybody want to give me 40? I can't resist this horse considering the price he'll be, which I'm guessing will be more like 15 or 20-1. His Gulfstream form early this year was solid enough and it just seems like there was enough going against him in his last four tries to warrant giving him one more chance to return to his best races. The turnback from a fifth-place finish going a mile on the Saratoga turf adds to the appeal big time. I like that he was able to show speed on the lawn, which could translate to an ability to handle Polytrack, plus I thought Cajun Breeze ran a big enough race considering how wide he was on the first turn and how quick he went early. A pace collapse seems inevitable considering the 3-year-olds in here, so I'll look for Cajun Breeze to take back and make one run, like he did when almost winning the Sunshine Millions Sprint. Other turnback Night Party and GII Commonwealth S. winner Lonesome Street will also be on my exacta and pick four tickets.

KEE R9 - GI Alcibiades S. - What an excellent betting race--definitely a spread in the pick four--but I'm looking forward to getting a good win price on 'TDN Rising Star' Pure Indy, who my esteemed colleague Steve Sherack is even higher on than I am. Backed down to 3-1 for trainer Craig Dollase and West Point/Lakland Farm first out at Del Mar going 5 1/2 furlongs Sept. 1, the leggy chestnut lagged at the back early before switching out and inhaling her foes for a going-away success. She never looked comfortable, however, as the 7-5 favorite in Fairplex's Barretts Debutante S. two weeks later, and came under an early ride before checking in fifth. I'm willing to excuse that performance over a quirky surface, and think the move back to Polytrack plus the added distance will suit Pure Indy well. She's out of an A.P. Indy half-sister to MGISW turf router Pure Clan (also a MGSW router at two on dirt and third in the Kentucky Oaks), who was by the same sire as Pure Indy in Pure Prize. Pure Indy's GSW second dam also produced Greater Good, a GSW dirt router at two and three who was third in the 2005 Derby.

SATURDAY

BEL R8 - GI Champagne S.  - The New York-based 2-year-old males haven't impressed me yet for the most part this year, and I especially can't buy into the Archwarrior hype. His debut was fine, and obviously he's bred to prefer more ground, but you're definitely supposed to let him beat you if he's actually going to go favored over stablemate Shanghai Bobby. I'm against the latter, too, but could see playing him if the Archwarrior steam gets out of control. The obvious alternative is Goldencents, who romped by 7 1/4 lengths going box to wire at Del Mar Sept. 2 with a field's-best last-out Beyer of 93. His Moss Pace Figure line precludes me from liking him too much, however--he went his first quarter in a time that was 15 points below par on the Moss scale. He still flew home, so I'll use him in the pick four, but I can't take him to win. That leaves European invader Chief Havoc, who's certainly an intriguing entrant here. He's still a maiden, but looks to have some sneaky ability and could take to the dirt. The tall, green Kentucky bred came on late to be third on debut over the Kempton synth Aug. 29, and was second against a tough group of winners at Newbury just two weeks ago--both starts were at a mile. He kind of reminds me of Dullahan before he broke his maiden in last year's Breeders' Futurity--you know there's talent there, it's just a matter of when he'll figure it all out. One would think, being by Giant's Causeway, he might be best on turf, but there's enough dirt pedigree on his dam's side that it wouldn't be shocking if he takes to the main track--the price will be right to find out. Out of versatile La Reina (A.P. Indy), winner of the GIII Tempted S. going a mile on the dirt at Aqueduct, Chief Havoc's second dam is champion older mare Queena, a Grade I winner on dirt at 7f, 8f and 8 1/2f. Queena also produced the good turfer Brahms. Trainer Jeremy Noseda took the 2010 GIII Gotham S. on the Big A main track with Awesome Act, and he scored on this card last year with Western Aristocrat in the Jamaica.

BEL R9 - GI Jamaica H. - While Cogito is 4-1 vs. Summer Front's 5-1 price on the morning line, I'm hoping Summer Front gets backed down to second choice behind the very formidable favorite Dullahan so I can get a more generous price on the only possible upsetter. Some handicappers have claimed that Dullahan's just a synthetic specialist, but he's run well on turf before and he's probably a better horse now than he was last time he tried grass... if you think there's actually a meaningful difference between the two surfaces (especially the Polytrack brand). I'm much more against Summer Front, who I think has proven he has very little chance of beating Dullahan at his best. Cogito, on the other hand, has maybe a 30 or 40% chance of being just plain old better than Dullahan and an 80% chance of winning if Dullahan doesn't show up. His runner-up effort in the G2 Prix Eugene Adam in July has been seriously flattered ever since, and I think he was clearly best that day. He was switched out into the clear far too soon, while winner Bayrir drafted in behind horses for much longer. Bayrir has obviously been productive since that event, convincingly annexing the GI Secretariat in front of Summer Front and finishing second in the G2 Prix Niel back in France. He was a late supplement into Sunday's Arc and is a bit intriguing in there. Additionally, and less apparent to American bettors, Eugene Adam third-place finisher Fractional has won twice since, including taking a Group 3 at Deauville last time; and fourth-place finisher Starboard scored in the G3 Prix du Prince d'Orange at Longchamp Sept. 22. I also like that Cogito's adding blinkers--trainer Brian Meehan was adding the hood for Red Rocks when he took the 2008 GI Man o' War S. and for Dangerous Midge when he upset the 2010 GI Breeders' Cup Turf.

KEE R8 - GI Breeders' Futurity S. - He's Had Enough's debut was similar to Pure Indy's. Unveiled going 6 1/2 panels at Del Mar Aug. 12, the grey overcame a very slow pace to get up from last to first and earn his diploma over a well-bet frontrunner. That visually impressive effort earned him 7-2 favoritism in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf S. Sept. 5, but the Reddam colorbearer settled for a close-up sixth despite some trouble. In last early behind a pace that looks very hot on paper, but held up reasonably well, He's Had Enough was forced to make his move very wide into the stretch and was then herded out and interfered with by another foe in the lane. He was never really able to get his feet under him due to all the interference, but still earned the fastest final quarter in the field. Runner-up Power Broker returned to take the GI FrontRunner S. last Saturday. There appears to be plenty of pace signed on here to set up He's Had Enough's late kick, and I like the switch back to Polytrack and the addition of blinkers. The distance should also be right up his alley--he's by Tapit out of a stakes-winning Dixieland Band mare who also dropped recent GI Joe Hirsch third-place finisher Kindergarden Kid. His second dam's a MGSW who produced the useful European runner Bertolini, and his third dam is Broodmare of the Year Courtly Dee. The 12-1 morning line quote might be a bit high, but anything over 6-1 is enticing. 

'Dude' Looks Tough, But 'Ron' Deserves Another Chance in Classic

--Brian DiDonato

   It’s hard to find any real knocks against expected GI Breeders’ Cup Classic favorite Game On Dude (Awesome Again), who upped his record at Santa Anita to five-for-five with a facile 3 1/4-length tally in the GI Awesome Again S. Saturday. The Bob Baffert trainee’s main drawback going into the weekend seemed to be that he tended to get a bit headstrong in previous efforts--something that could be his undoing in a full field with other quick horses--but the 5-year-old seemed to have no problem rating under new pilot Rafael Bejarano. He’s proven enough at 10 furlongs and has earned four straight Beyer Speed Figures of 108 or better, so there’s really not much to go on if you’re looking to beat him in the Breeders’ Cup. He probably even offers value at his current price of 7-2 at William Hill (there’s no chance he’s that high come Nov. 3, and he’s a more realistic 2-1 at Wynn), but he’ll have to handle a solid group of older horses invading from the East Coast who have taken turns running big races. If one or two of them falls through the cracks, they may be worth taking a shot on or at least using on back-up exotic tickets.

   Flat Out (Flatter) emerged as the Classic’s probable second choice with his game score in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, but I’m a bit dubious of how he’ll perform out West. He’s done all his best running in New York--particularly at Belmont--and was a very big disappointment in last year’s Classic after taking the Jockey Club. All reports were that Flat Out had been working like a monster at Churchill and he seemed like a cinch to at least hit the board, but the bay had no excuse when finishing fifth. He’s gotten a trainer upgrade to Bill Mott this year, but I still think regression is likely.
   I’m also against Jockey Club runner-up Stay Thirsty (Bernardini)--his form before Saturday left plenty to be desired and, if he’s going to employ similar front-running tactics in California, it seems unlikely that he’ll be able to dispose of Game On Dude and then hold off the closers. I honestly have no idea what to do with Fort Larned (E Dubai)--he was very impressive in the GI Whitney H., but just sort of went through the motions when checking in third at Belmont. I’m guessing he’ll find at least a couple better than him in the Breeders’ Cup, but could see using him if he gets ignored. He’s trading at 12-1 on William Hill and 14-1 at Wynn, but I expect he'll drift in the the mutuel pools. 

Ron the Greek takes to the Santa Anita strip
Benoit Photo

   While I’m against Mott’s Flat Out, I think I'll give Ron the Greek (Full Mandate) (14-1 at William Hill, 12-1 at Wynn) another chance providing the rest of the world doesn’t have the exact same idea. He put in a very visually impressive move to take the GI Santa Anita H. over the Classic track and trip in March, and he outran Flat Out despite a tougher trip when second in the Whitney. Ron the Greek was a complete no-show in the Jockey Club, but sometimes the best time to bet a Mott horse is off a dull effort like that one. There was enough moisture in the track that that could have had something to do with it as well. He might be poised for major improvement second off the bench and fits the Classic profile in plenty of ways. The way to beat Game On Dude is probably to hope for a hot pace, and Ron the Greek is a logical contender to pick up the pieces in such a scenario.
   Mott’s third Classic horse is To Honor and Serve (Bernardini), who showed the heart he seemed to be lacking when gamely denying Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno) in the GI Woodward S. His fourth-place run in the GII Kelso H. makes it hard to trust him, however, and I’d need something like 30-1 or better to be interested. Mucho Macho Man (12-1 at William Hill, 8-1 at Wynn) is much more interesting--he got hung up a bit in the Woodward while To Honor and Serve got the jump on him, and his form all year has been very solid. He seems to always attract a bit more money than he should, but hopefully the two-month gap between the Woodward and Classic will allow the big bay to slip from people’s minds a bit.

On a 'Quest' for Value in BC Ladies' Classic

--Brian DiDonato 





   With her 9 1/2-length romp in Belmont’s GI Beldame S. Saturday, defending GI Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic winner Royal Delta (Empire Maker) stamped herself as a deserving favorite for this year’s renewal. The good Royal Delta showed up, and when that happens, very few dirt routers--either male or female--can run with her. She proved her second-place effort to GI Zenyatta S. victoress Love and Pride (A.P. Indy) in the GI Personal Ensign H. was just the product of an off day, but it does make one wonder if last year’s champion 3-year-old filly can be trusted to show up with her best at Santa Anita. She has run clunkers before, and while she used the Beldame as a stepping stone to a career high last year, her effort Saturday was much stronger than in 2011 and may well have put her over the top for the big one. She’s currently 2-1 at both William Hill and the Wynn, and I’d say that’s on the low side of fair--there’s better value to be had.


Low-striding Royal Delta cruises in Beldame
NYRA/Adam Coglianese Photo

   First, a few play againsts. I wouldn’t touch anyone from the Zenyatta on the win end. Love and Pride got away with murder on a speed-favoring track, but only earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure vs. Royal Delta’s 106. She’s currently 6-1 at the Wynn and 10-1 on William Hill, but her fair odds to win the Ladies’ Classic are probably upwards of 30-1 considering expected pace dynamics. Runner-up Joyful Victory (Tapit) (who’s reportedly skipping the Breeders’ Cup) has already been exposed as a cut or two below the better females out there; and while local hope Include Me Out (Include) probably has the best chance to have a say Nov. 2, it’s hard to imagine her beating all of the East Coast invaders. Amani (Chi) (Morning Raider {Ire}) has been a huge disappointment since being imported from her native country with impressive-looking form and I can’t see any reason to expect anything different if she runs.  
   I’m also against Awesome Feather (Awesome of Course) (5-1 at the Wynn, 7-1 on William Hill), who seems likely to be a fashionable pick--I’m guessing she’ll be a clear second choice by post time if she makes the race. While trainer Chad Brown has done an exceptional job keeping the undefeated filly together and on an upward trajectory, she has faced absolutely nothing in all nine of her wins and it’s hard to have any confidence in a horse who requires so much time between starts. 

Questing runs away with the Alabama
NYRA/Adam Coglianese Photo

   That leaves us with the top two 3-year-old fillies, My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike) and Questing (Hard Spun), who put on quite the show in Parx’s GI Cotillion S. While the former got the win that day and is a slightly shorter price at most future books (9-2 vs. 6-1 on William Hill, 7-1 vs. 8-1 at the Wynn--almost worth flying to Vegas to get down on Questing), anybody who paid attention to the races that day knows Questing ran much better. Questing set a very slow pace, but it was over a track with the most pronounced dead rail and anti-speed bias you’ll ever see. My Miss Aurelia still has some seasoning questions to answer with just two starts under her belt, while it’s impossible to denigrate Questing’s form since switching to the dirt. Her GI Alabama S. tour de force was probably close to on par with any other dirt race we’ve seen this year--she set impossible fractions and just kept going. Questing’s capable of running other quick horses off their feet, and as long as she breaks cleanly over that speed-favoring Santa Anita dirt, she’s going to be very tough to catch regardless of which Royal Delta shows up. Note that Godolphin/McLaughlin also have It’s Tricky (Mineshaft) as a possible Ladies’ Classic entrant, but I’m guessing they’ll turn her back for the GI Filly & Mare Sprint. She’ll prove extremely tough as a non-favorite in that event.

Win or Lose; it's still the Breeders' Cup

by Christina Bossinakis

   I arrived in Louisville early Thursday morning, and was promptly greeted by gloom and torrential rains that were making their way through the area. After a brief visit to the Churchill Downs press box, I headed over to check into my hotel and ready for the evenings festivities. On my dance card was a cocktail party hosted by celebrity chef Bobby Flay and TDN Publisher Barry Weisbord. Upon arrival, guests were greeted with a refreshing Vodka-based cocktail (Grey Goose, of course). Held in a local airport hangar (I know it sounds odd, but one would never know where they actually were once inside), the event featured live music in addition to an international panel of chefs (reportedly hand picked by Mr. Flay), who were offering delectable creations from 15 countries. With tremendous flags arranged in a cubic shape hanging from above, each mini stage was adorned with white lights and linens, making it resemble something right off the planet Krypton (yes, I’m referring to Superman’s birthplace). Each station presented food from a particular country on one side of the platform, while the opposing side offered a corresponding cocktail meant to compliment the fare. I must admit, I’ve been to quite a few pre-race press parties along the way, but this definitely was the most novel and inspired. Many industry notables were on the scene and Bobby, who was in fine form, was as good a host as one could ask for.

   After a couple of cocktails, a group of us headed over to the renowned Louisville-area French restaurant, Le Relais. Among those in the party were CHRB Chairman Keith Brackpool, Coolmore’s inimitable Richard Henry, Bo Derek (looking great, but minus the braids--sorry guys), Bloodstock agent Patrick Lawley-Waklin, who has been associated with such powerhouses as Sam-Son Farms and the Evans family, and the connections of Miss Match, who was slated to run in Friday’s GI Ladies' Classic. The mare, who won last March’s GI Santa Margarita S., was represented by trainer Neil Drysdale, his wife Shawn Dugan (who gets a special shout out as an entertainment director extraordinaire), in addition to the Australian contingent--the mare’s owner Matthew Cloros and Arrowfield’s Jon Freyer, who secured the filly for Cloros before her Grade I score (insert applause here). An amusing side note: Having called North America my home since birth, and having visited Australia only once, I had never laid eyes upon the Sydney-based owner of the mare, so I had always imagined somebody born in the era of the second World War. In fact, Matt is a young entrepreneur (he is the master behind the ultra- successful Australian company Redback Boots), and who, I’m told, is quite attractive (that’s an affirmative ladies). But back to the restaurant. Although a little tricky to find--as Mr. Henry might attest--the venue’s food and wine definitely lived up to all the hype. But in my mind, my dinner company was, without a doubt, the best feature of the evening. I was fortunate enough to be surrounded by an amazingly accomplished group of people that are not only razor sharp and seriously passionate about our sport, but who are also as down to earth and fun as anybody you’re ever going to meet. Good times.

   With Thursday’s rains having passed through, Friday dawned dry, albeit cloudy. It was just a typical fall day in Kentucky, cool but not frigid. By the time the first Breeders’ Cup race of the afternoon went off, however, the sun had broken through and warmed things up considerably. Stationed in the Turf Club with many of the principals from the night before, we were greeted by a good day of racing, punctuated by a seriously impressive performance by Stonestreet Stables and George Bolton’s My Miss Aurelia. It represented a bit of a full-circle moment for me since I was actually at Keeneland and covered the story for the TDN when she sold as a yearling for $550,000 in 2010. Even though I don’t have a vested interest in these horses, I always find myself so appreciative of watching them grow and develop into top shelf performers, and even more so, when they become champions. My Miss Aurelia’s performance definitely made it difficult to vote for anybody else at the end of the year, that’s for sure.

Left to right: Reiley McDonald, Patrick Lawley-Wakelin, Shawn Dugan, Jon Freyer,
Matt Cloros & Christina Bossinakis

   While everybody in the Miss Match camp was having a good old time early in the card, it became increasingly evident as the anticipation and nervousness began to mount as the final Breeders’ Cup race of the day approached. Even with the sun’s appearance earlier, the track still retained a lot of moisture in it by the time the Ladies’ Classic went off. In the moments leading up to the race, the excitement among the Argentine-bred’s connections was palpable. While horses had shown they could come from off the pace during the day, Miss Match--a well-reputed closer--seemed like she might belie her 8-1 odds. As it turned out, she didn’t have the cleanest of trips and took more than her fair share of mud in her face, prompting a mud-caked Garrett Gomez to conclude that she had no way of seeing through the all the muck and mire. It is my understanding that the mare will head to the breeding shed next season, and she has certainly done enough to warrant it. One side note: you can often gage the merits of a person by the way they handle victory as well as defeat, and the 6-year-old’s connections, above all her owner, showed exemplary class after a pretty tough result. While things might not have gone quite as planned for some of the other participants in the race as well, the connections of Royal Delta were certainly rewarded generously, which continued into this week when she brought $8.5 million at the Keeneland November sale. It reminds me of earlier telecasts of Wide World of Sports that kicked off with the phrase ‘The thrill of victory and the agony of defeat.’ I guess if you’ve been in this game long enough, you have experienced both in good measure.

   Following the race, the Miss Match team lingered for another drink (or maybe it was two?) before adjourning to a very enjoyable dinner. I must admit, the whole experience underscored something that I’ve known for some time but sometimes forget. There is so much time, not to mention a boatload of preparation, put in to get a horse to a Breeders’ Cup race, so it goes without saying that losing is a real drag (I actually had another word in mind here). But for so many that devote heaps of energy and resources to the game, it is obvious that people’s love of the sport and, simply being part of a great day of racing like the Breeders’ Cup, makes it all worth it, win or lose.

BC Analysis: Saturday

--Brian DiDonato

CLASSIC - While Uncle Mo is the most talented horse in this race, he's a terrible bet here. He's simply had too much go wrong in 2011, and now must stretch out two furlongs to a distance he's never gone before. Havre de Grace is also a guaranteed underlay, in part because she's the type of horse who the public latches on to, and also because she's probably best at nine furlongs. Add to the mix a likely over-the-top, unproven on dirt So You Think, who in my estimation will be about a third the price he should be, and the value on a major contender continues to balloon. Flat Out is by far the most reliable runner in this race, and he's an absolute must-bet. While Havre de Grace beat him in the 1 1/8-mile Woodward, she got the jump on him after being closer to a below average pace. Flat Out was gaining on her late (his final eighth came in :12.75 to her :12.87), and also passed her during the gallop out. He had no trouble getting this distance last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and figures to get plenty of pace to run at. Game On Dude will be gunned to the lead because his connections have decided that he has to be ridden that way, and To Honor and Serve and the Repole pair shouldn't be far behind. Flat Out doesn't capture the public's imagination the way others in this field do, but he's undoubtedly the most likely winner of the Classic and sure to be a huge overlay.

MILE - This is an easy race to get excited about as a fan, but perhaps not quite as much as a bettor. The problem is that while the argument can be made that Goldikova has lost a step now at the age of six, she's still very much the horse to beat at a short price. To complicate things further, if you don't concede the race to her, you have to go very deep. I'll spread with a number of contenders to various degrees, and will also take a small shot with Byword to win. The Juddmonte homebred was just a half-length back of Goldikova in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan last May, and has had an abbreviated campaign in 2011, but may to be back in top form. He took the G2 Prix Dollar last time at Longchamp Oct. 1 despite traffic trouble, and runner-up Cirrus des Aigles flattered that effort big time by returning to annex the G1 Champion S. at Ascot over So You Think. Note that while most of Byword's major successes have come at longer distances, he does sport a 4-3-1-0 record at a mile.

JUVENILE - The notion that Union Rags overcame a bad trip in the Champagne couldn't be more misguided--he sat in the perfect spot behind a hot pace and had to wait only briefly for running room. The fact that he ran slower than filly My Miss Aurelia did in the Frizette one race earlier further tempers my enthusiasm. He can win and he has to be included protectively in pick 3s/4s, but he's going to be overbet. I think very highly of Dullahan, but if this race were on Polytrack or if he was in the turf race, I'd be much more confident in him. He's always been very green, but has shown flashes of serious ability, and he overcame an absurdly wide trip to finally break through in the GI Breeders' Futurity last time (his Trakus chart is amazing--he traveled 51 feet more than the runner-up, which equates to about six lengths). He's obviously got the pedigree to handle dirt, as he's a half-brother to Mine That Bird by a sire (Even The Score) who was versatile as a racehorse and has been versatile as a producer. It's hard to tell much from his early races on this track as they were sprints and he was extremely green, and his workout Saturday was uninspiring, but he doesn't strike me as a horse that would turn heads in the morning. There are plenty of reasons to believe he'll be fine on the main track, but he could also very easily be a trap horse, so I'll use him and make him my tentative top pick, but won't lean too heavily on him. The others I'll try to beat Union Rags with are Take Charge Indy, who feels like the type who could wake up in a big way on dirt and might get my win money depending on his price; visually impressive (albeit with an easy trip) G2 Royal Lodge winner Daddy Long Legs, who tries dirt for the first time and has an American pedigree; and untested speedster Hansen.

TURF - He's not exactly a secret, but I had a hard time getting past Sea Moon here. The Europeans clearly have this race locked up, and Sea Moon offers by far the most upside with just five starts under his belt. His eight-length romp in the G2 Great Voltigeur S. at York in August over a weak field earned a field's best 126 Racing Post rating, and came at this distance. He was clearly best in the G1 St. Leger last time, as he was trapped down inside of horses for almost the entire stretch run. That he finished third with the trip he had was a testament to his very serious ability, and note that Sir Michael Stoute used the St. Leger as a springboard to Conduit's first of two BC Turf wins. St Nicholas Abbey is the under-the-radar Euro, and is probably the race's second most likely winner.

DIRT MILE - The obvious players in here (The Factor, Wilburn, Caleb's Posse and Trappe Shot--think Shackleford's over the top) are no secret and will all be on my tickets somewhere, but how about Tres Borrachos to spice things up a bit? In a race where two of the favorites are stretch-outs, the 6-year-old veteran turns back off a fifth-place finish in the GI Goodwood in which battled through an opening half that was 13 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale. He was third in June going seven panels with a 98 Beyer, and took a weak renewal of the 1 1/16-mile GII San Diego H. with a 97--those figures probably aren't quite good enough to win this, but he did run consecutive 106s in 2009. His dam was a sprinter/miler, and he has always given the impression that he too would be best at 7-8 furlongs, but shockingly, he's only gone a flat mile once in his career. Tres Borrachos probably isn't as talented as some of these at their respective bests, but he could show up with something close to a career top, which would put him in the mix.

TURF SPRINT - Havelock is the most reliable runner in this race--he's won the last four turf sprints he's contested, and has the versatility to travel in mid-pack or towards the back. It seemed like he was left with way too much to do last time in the GIII Woodford, but he flew home late to get up and clear (the early pace was hot, however). He should get just enough pace to set up his late rally again, and even though his style isn't optimal for five furlongs, he sports a 6-4-0-1 record at the distance. A crazy longshot to include might be Grand Adventure, who has run races in the past that would win this for fun. He's been a disappointment in 2011, but he's had just enough of an excuse in most of his races this year that perhaps he can turn it around--especially on firm turf and at a shorter distance--at astronomical odds.

SPRINT - I'd love to lock this morning line in place, as Big Drama is a very significant underlay at 5-2, while Jackson Bend is a huge overlay at 7-2. The former has simply had too much go wrong this year to back with any confidence, and he's very unlikely to be at his best, which is something he'll have to be to hold off this group and defend his title. Jackson Bend has enjoyed a sharp form reversal since cutting back to one-turn races, and while trainer Nick Zito seemed a bit apprehensive to shorten his charge up to six furlongs rather than keep him at a mile, the chestnut is two-for-two at the trip. The 112 Beyer he earned in the GII Kelso H. when second to Uncle Mo came when dead last early behind a very slow pace, and he probably made his visually impressive bid to challenge last year's 2-year-old champ a bit prematurely. Force Freeze might be the longshot play. I made a case for him in an earlier post before the Vosburgh, and he almost ran down Giant Ryan to get it done in the mud. He appeared to slow down when tipped out into the center of the track, and may have been traveling in a deeper part of the lane than the winner. His stalking style could allow him to work out a nice trip.

JUVENILE TURF - Like the filly version of this event, this is clearly a spread race. With so many places to go, it seems like a good idea to start with the Euros. I want no part of exposed sprinter Caspar Netscher and, while he's got a shot and is certainly one to use, Farraaj seems to be a wise guy horse from what I've read and heard. Wrote is very interesting--or at least as interesting as a horse can be in an inscrutable race that anyone can win. I loved his performance to be third last time in the G2 Royal Lodge over Newmarket's Rowley Mile behind stablemate and Juvenile contender Daddy Long Legs. He was last early behind what seemed to be a slow pace set by his Ballydoyle buddy and, when producing his run, was inexplicably guided towards a blocked rail before being taken back outside by Jamie Spencer. He loomed ominously before tailing off a bit late, but the final furlong of that course is uphill (granted, the previous furlong is downhill), so going from a mile there to a mile at Churchill Downs could almost be considered a turn back. He gives the impression of a horse that will love a firm American turf course, and trainer Aidan O'Brien is having a huge year Stateside after suffering from an extended rough patch previously. I'm expecting a breakout performance from Wrote, and doubt any American horse can hang with him if he runs that sort of race.

MARATHON - I find it hard to get excited about this race, but Cease would pique my interest if he stayed at his 6-1 morning line price or somehow drifted up. The lightly raced 4-year-old from the connections that campaigned Blame turned in two serious efforts in the slop at Saratoga going nine furlongs, but showed he could handle a dry track and more distance when a close-up third in the GIII Hawthorne Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles. It's possible that the outside was the place to be in Chicago that day, and Cease got a poor ride, hung out wide in no-man's land around the first turn and striking the front a bit too soon while switching inside to the dead rail. To be beaten only a half-length with a 98 Beyer was an accomplishment considering his trip, and he still has plenty of upside--the only question that remains is how much he'll be bet. . . he's sort of obvious.