There are three
essential reasons why Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}) should be able
to win the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf: track condition, the level of
competition he's confronted, and the André Fabre cycle. It is often
noted that horses coming from the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe face
the constraint of a peak race plus short interval. However, both of
Fabre's BC Turf winners, In the Wings in 1990 and Shirocco in 2006,
came from the Arc, where they each finished fourth. So we can call it
a pattern match for Flintshire. Call it the Arc de Triomphe as prep
race.
Fabre's Arcangues,
winner of the 1993 BC Classic at 133-1, "prepped" the day
prior to the Arc, finishing 10th on a heavy track in the Prix Dollar.
Like Arcangues,
Flintshire figures to improve on a dry surface. Given his record,
Flintshire should relish drought-stricken California, where he will
be delivered a firm surface. His record on tracks listed as soft
would not warrant a trip to the BC: four races with a second-place
finish, two fourths and an eighth. On tracks listed as good, he's won
three and finished second three times. His seconds in the Epson
Coronation Cup to Cirrus des Aigles (Fr) (Even Top {Ire}) and to
Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}) in the recent Arc put him in the most
elite company. Several of the horses that finished behind him in the
Arc could have ended up favored in the BC Turf.
The problem is that
Flintshire's win payout, that is, if he wins, figures to be less than
the generous place return I got from him in the Arc. He is currently
listed as race favorite in both Britain and the USA. Much more often
than not, the heavy Euro favorite finishes behind a higher-odds Euro
horse in BC races.
Such was the case in
last year's BC Turf, when the even-money The Fugue (GB) (Dansili
{GB}) got caught by Magician (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), trained by Aidan
O'Brien, who was 7-1. Like Flintshire, Magician does his best racing
when the surface gets firmer, but needs a patient ride.
Similarly, Michael
Stoute's Telescope (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) has excelled when the
surface is listed as good-to-firm. Telescope was defeated by the
filly Taghrooda (GB) (Sea the Stars {Ire}) at his best distance of 12
furlongs at Ascot. The difference was three lengths. If you believe
in "who beat who," then Flintshire looks good by
comparison, having finished a length and a quarter ahead of the
wide-racing Taghrooda in the Arc. The who-beat-whoers would also have
to consider the horse that defeated Magician in the Arlington
Million, Hardest Core (Hard Spun).
At this writing in the
British books, Flintshire and Telescope are vying for favoritism
between 7-2 and 4-1. You can get as much as 6-1 on Magician. Hardest
Core is 12-1. The former European horse Main Sequence (Aldebaran) has
followed the pattern of horses that have underachieved in Europe
because they have craved firmer surfaces. He has thrived for Graham
Motion on firm surfaces in the USA and his odds have been coming down
to around 6-1. The American odds thus far have Flintshire at 7-2,
Telescope 5-1 and Magician at 6-1, with Main Sequence, distinguished
for winning photo finishes, also at 6-1.
Most factors still give
Flintshire the edge, except for one: the odds. Can the man who has
produced Breeders' Cup winners in double- and triple-figure payoffs
do it again when he's got the favorite? Fabre faces multiple BC
Turf-winning trainers Stoute and O'Brien, as well as the former Euro
now longtime American, Graham Motion, who's also won a BC Turf.
Let's see the odds.
Backing heavily bet Euro horses in the BC is like trying to squeeze
blood from a turnip. With all the contention, we should demand a
double-figure payoff.
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