Derby Undercard Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

CD Race 3 - MSW, 6f - There are some very telling stats for trainer Ian Wilkes that make #10 Boss Gone (8-1) pretty much an automatic bet here. The gelding was sixth with a fairly rough trip on debut over the Keeneland Polytrack Apr. 12, and is likely to improve drastically under these conditions. For one, according to DRF Formulator, Wilkes is just 7% on synthetic tracks (5% at Keeneland) over the past five years; and only 2% with his first timers. Combining those two categories, he’s 0-for-29. Wilkes does much better second out, however—especially recently. He’s 7-for-30 (23%) with maiden second timers over the past 12 months with a very strong $3.70 ROI, and an even-better 6-for-22 (27%) with a $4.83 ROI when that stat is restricted to dirt starters. There’s plenty of speed signed on here, and Boss Gone actually fits pretty well on speed figures. Maybe that means the 8-1 morning line quote is unrealistic, but regardless, I’m expecting a much-improved performance from this Wilkes trainee and think anything around 9-2 or better is fair value.

CD Race 6 - GII Distaff Turf Mile - Centre Court is a very worthy favorite with a three-for-three record over the Churchill strip, but #6 I’m Already Sexy (10-1) has a chance to spring the upset. The Wayne Catalano pupil put together a pair of solid winning efforts over the Arlington turf course this summer, including a 3 3/4-length victory in the GIII Pucker Up S., but was up against it in her last two trips to the post as a sophomore. She failed to make the lead when drawn wide in a very quick-paced renewal of the GI QE II Challenge Cup, and had a similar problem in this venue’s GII Mrs. Revere S. over good ground. There isn’t really much speed signed on here, however, and if I’m Already Sexy is gunned to the lead, she could get brave over a one-mile distance that should be to her liking.

CD Race 8 - GII American Turf S. - I’ll spread pretty wide in here to kick off the pick four, but I’m most interested in #2 Chief Barker (5-1). I know, surprise, surprise, I’m picking the Euro. . . But he kicked off his career with three well-rated victories in Britain last Summer, including a score over the ill-fated Chriselliam. She annexed the G1 Fillies’ Mile and GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in her next two outings. Chief Barker hasn’t been seen since finishing sixth in the G1 Racing Post Trophy for Richard Hannon, but it didn’t look like he loved the soft ground that day and he appears to be working very well for new conditioner Larry Rivelli. This is the type of horse that gets more lost on days when there’s more casual money in the pools.

CD Race 9 - GII Churchill Downs S. - This is another race with a number of possibilities and live prices, but I have to go back to #2 Clearly Now (9-2). I loved him in the Carter (analysis here), and obviously wasn’t alone as he went off the 5-2 favorite, but could only manage third. He got a really terrible ride in a race full of bad rides--I’ve never seen a Grade I sprint run like a 12-furlong turf race before, but that’s pretty much what happened. Anyway, Clearly Now should have been right up there pressing the pace instead of being strangled in and among horses--now he gets a rider change to Javier Castellano, who’s never afraid to put his horses into the mix early. The lay-off was the main concern for Clearly last time, as he always seems to fire best second off the bench, and he should be ready for a peak effort here.

Oaks Day Late Pick Four Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

GI Kentucky Oaks - The whole world knows that this race goes through Untapable. Her two efforts

this season tower over the competition, and she’ll probably win. But being drawn out in the 13 post makes her a little vulnerable, and she’s not absolutely guaranteed to get the distance—plus she does have a target on her back. I’m not crazy enough to toss her, and many of my bets will use her on top, but I do think there’s some value to be had here—either on the win end if the favorite falters, or at least underneath.
   The horse I’m most interested in is Thank You Marylou, who’s an extremely generous 30-1 on the morning line. The Mike Maker trainee is by Birdstone—whose progeny almost universally prefer a conventional main track, and who are better the longer they go—out of a Menifee mare who was much better on dirt and a stakes winner at 1 1/16 miles. Yet this will be the first time Thank You Marylou routes on dirt, and the first time she goes beyond 8 1/2 panels. A late-on-the-scene third (promoted to second via DQ) in the GII Saratoga Special in August, the chestnut resurfaced to take Gulfstream’s seven-furlong Any Limit S. by 2 1/2 lengths over a decent field Mar. 9, good for a 95 Beyer Speed Figure (that makes her the third-fastest horse in the race, believe it or not). Perhaps she should’ve finished better than seven lengths behind the top two when third in Keeneland’s GI Ashland S. in her first route attempt last time, but she was much closer to that insane early pace than those foes were and she just never figured to prefer the synthetic. She should run a new Beyer top under these conditions, and that puts her right with pretty much anything besides Untapable’s best.
   I’ll also include Unbridled Forever, the daughter of 2006 Oaks upsetter Lemons Forever who should also appreciate this trip and figures to move up off her third behind Untapable in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks; Got Lucky, who continues to let me down, but has had some trip excuses and is best at nine furlongs; and a tiny bit of GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner-via-DQ Ria Antonia, who ran ok first-time Baffert last time in the GI Santa Anita Oaks and could take a step forward.
   The Play: Win on #5 Thank You Marylou (30-1). Exacta box key w/ #13 Untapable (4-5) (pressed), #9 Unbridled Forever (12-1), #12 Got Lucky (20-1) and #2 Ria Antonia (10-1). Trifecta 13 w/ 2,5,9,12 w/ 2,5,9,12. In the pick four, 5,13 as A’s; 9 as B; 2,12 as C’s.

Thank You Marylou                                       Kenny Martin

GII Alysheba S. - This looks like a very good spot to oppose odds-on favorite Will Take Charge. He danced lots of dances last year, and has already run three times this year—in Florida, California and Arkansas. He did not look like his best self when barely winning the GII Oaklawn H. last time and nearly being DQ’d, and the 103 Beyer he earned was his lowest in eight starts. This 1 1/16-mile distance is also much shorter than optimal for him. Normandy Invasion is the obvious alternative and figures to take some beating—his runner-up finish behind Palace Malice in the GII New Orleans H. while attempting to close into a slow pace takes this a large portion of the time. I’ll also use the other obvious horses: Golden Ticket, whose close second to Palice Malice in the GII Gulfstream Park H. looks particularly good in hindsight and whose last race in that embarrassingly run Carter can be ignored; and Mylute, who still has some upside. I’m also going to use a little Coin Broker because he’s still unexposed and trainer Dale Romans is always sneaky.
   The Play: Exacta box #5 Normandy Invasion (3-1), #7 Golden Ticket (6-1) and #3 Mylute (10-1), w/ 5,7 box pressed. Smaller exacta key box #4 Coin Broker w/ 3,5,7. In the pick four, 3,5,7 as A’s, 4 as a C.

Edgewood S. - This morning line seems a bit off to me, but if it were to hold, Little Journey would be a very big overlay at 10-1. Trainer Chad Brown is just SO deadly with these European fillies, and they don’t always get bet—Sweet Acclaim was a fast-closing second at 8-1 in last month’s GIII Appalachian S. According to the Keeneland clocker report, Little Journey out-worked Pleuven—a GSP 3-year-old colt who would crush these—over the turf there Apr. 17. Plus she was third in September behind Flamboyant, who took her own Stateside debut in Santa Anita’s La Puente S. two weeks ago. The other two I’ll use are Istanford and Resistivity, who were part of that complete meltdown in the Ashland I alluded to earlier. Both are much better than that and I don’t think they’ll be ridden quite so aggressively this time, though I wasn’t expecting them to be the second and third choices on the morning line.
   The Play: Win bet on #5 Little Journey (10-1) at 5-1+, also using #7 Istanford (7-2) and #10 Resistivity (3-1) in the pick four.

Eight Belles S. - What a surprise, a 3-year-old race at seven furlongs comes up super interesting. . . There are tons of ways to go in here—the obvious players like She’s a Tiger, Fiftyshadesofgold and Our Amazing Rose have to be respected, but there’s at least one longshot who interests me a lot. I discussed Mufajaah here a bit before the Fantasy, where she never quite seemed to recover after a rough start, checking in seventh in what was a bit of a merry-go-round race. She still has every right to prove extremely talented, though, and I love the cut back to seven panels for her and the addition of Lasix. Lots of Tapits seem to do well with this move, and her dam Carolyn’s Cat (Forestry) was a speedy MGSW sprinter. Plus there are enough fillies in here who want to be forwardly placed that I think her late kick could prove very dangerous.
   The Play: Win bet on #8 Mufajaah (10-1). In the pick four, using her, #7 Fiftyshadesofgold (3-1) and #10 She’s a Tiger (5-2) as A’s; #4 Our Amazing Rose (3-1) and #5 Jojo Warrior (9-2) as B’s; #1 Whomping Willow (12-1) and #9 Milam (12-1) as C’s.

Guest Post: Speed and Stamina: The Odd Couple

by Mark Cramer

   French trainer Philippe Decouz once explained to me why speed pedigree was necessary for success in jump races: “The horse needs to accelerate after each jump, and if there’s a lack of speed in his pedigree, it will slow him down.”
   Years ago, in a race at Saint-Cloud, a Thoroughbred that did both flat and hurdle racing was entered in a mile event following a long layoff. The trainer commented that this race would be a prep for upcoming obstacle events.
   The horse went off at 35-1, took the lead at the break and never looked back. The crowd, aware of the trainer’s comment, erupted in boos, but in fact, the field was void of early speed and the jumper got the jump. It was indeed a prep, and the horse went on to the planned jump races.
   The odd relationship between speed and stamina is often the core of GI Kentucky Derby analysis. All horses are stretching to the mile-and-a-quarter distance, except for an occasional Dubai winner at the classic distance. 
   According to American author Roger LeBlanc, if you played all Derby entrants showing among the top three four-furlong splits taken from nine-furlong races (in other words, three win bets per Derby), you’d show a 111% profit. In his new The Lazy Bettor’s Guide to the Kentucky Derby: 3 Easy Angles, LeBlanc is meticulous in distinguishing between what he calls “keen-to-lead” horses, which are a bad bet, and more versatile early speed competitors.
   When LeBlanc sent me his manuscript, I was at first skeptical about the word’s “lazy” and “easy.” I feared the usual quick-fix system. However, my fears were allayed after the first few pages. What I love about the book is that it is both empirical and literate. It’s fun to read and it’s based on exquisite and agile research.  
   LeBlanc tells the story of a long list of Derby losers that had been overbet because of their perceived stamina, horses that lacked early speed. I know this viscerally from my bicycling. I can cycle all day, the way certain horses can “run all day,” but I lack speed, so one of my cycling partners, the speedy Alan Kennedy, always ends up ahead of me.
   In 2006, Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro (Dynaformer) showed one of the top three four-furlong splits of all the Derby entrants, when he was second by a half-length at the quarter of the GIII Holy Bull S. with a :46 2/5. The 2010 winner Super Saver (Maria’s Mon) qualified by virtue of his :47 split in the GI Arkansas Derby. Animal Kingdom (Leroidesanimaux {Brz}) was another qualifier in 2011.
   Even the longshot Mine That Bird (Birdstone) fit the parameters in 2009 thanks to a 45 4/5 half at Sunland.
   But alas, LeBlanc’s fractional analysis is anything but “easy” and he delves deeply into the comparative values of early speed fractions from dirt, turf and synthetic preps.
   As with the jumpers in France, the fact that a horse has shown the capacity for early speed does not mean that it will run its Kentucky Derby from the front. That would depend on the pace dynamics--he could end up coming from behind. But the speed aspect of his pedigree will allow for the necessary big move.
   Meanwhile, pure stamina horses will usually finish with chart comments like “didn’t get up on time” or “lacked his usual closing rush.”
   Naturally, Mr. LeBlanc has a lot more to say on the subject, includes three different methods, and goes about it with more nuance and depth than I can in
600 words.
   The disclaimer here is that I eventually wrote a forward for his book. I have never met Mr. LeBlanc, nor do I have any economic interest in the book. I am simply known in the business as a guy who does not turn down a manuscript read, though I am rarely moved to write about one. 

2010 Derby winner Super Saver
Horsephotos

Revisiting the Past Via the 2013 Triple Crown

--Christina Bossinakis

   Only moments after this year’s Belmont Stakes, trainer Todd Pletcher admitted it was an emotional win for him, largely because of his history with Dogwood Stables, the partnership that campaigns winner Palace Malice. Quite unexpectedly, however, it turned out to be a pretty poignant moment for me as well. Over the last 13 years, I have plied my trade as a turf writer, reporter and editor, and in more recent times, a TV host and analyst, but despite that fact, I consider myself first and foremost a racing fan. And in a poetic coincidence, ties to the first three finishers in the Belmont offered a vivid reminder as to why I fell in love with the sport to begin with.
   The very first Triple Crown race I ever watched live on TV was the 1988 Kentucky Derby, which was won by the roan filly, the Amazon, Winning Colors. Most will recall that the giant filly was the first Derby winner for her trainer, D. Wayne Lukas, as well as her jockey, Gary Stevens. I remember all too well how elated I was with her victory, not only because she was a girl beating the boys (I’m always up for that!), but also because I was a bourgeoning Lukas fan. Whether it was the fancy suits, the platinum tongue (‘silver tongue’ just doesn’t cut it with Wayne) or his rampant success, I was a believer. And quite honestly, I have been ever since.

Lukas & Winning Colors

   Fast forward to this year’s Preakness Stakes, and who should be standing on the winner’s podium but Lukas and Stevens, this time courtesy of the exploits of Oxbow, owned by Calumet Farm. Now owned by Brad Kelley, historic Calumet was also instrumental in stoking my passion for racing during an admittedly impressionable time. In 1990, Calumet campaigned a handsome chestnut by Alydar named Criminal Type, and he was trained by, you guessed it, D. Wayne Lukas. He won four Grade I’s and closed out the season with the Horse of the Year title to boot. I was a hardcore fan by then. In an interesting coincidence (well, maybe not such a coincidence), Lukas had a young foreman-turned-assistant working for him that would go on to give his teacher, not to mention the rest of the training colony, a serious run for their money. Todd Pletcher, who was with Lukas through 1995, might not have been an instant hit, but he showed very early on that he would be a force to be reckoned with down the line. Unapologetically a fan to this day, ‘The Man’ certainly lived up to the moniker I trumpeted (quite enthusiastically, in fact) each time he visited the winner’s circle (no doubt confirmed by any TDNer present circa 2002).

Todd Pletcher (shades) & Criminal Type

   This year’s Triple Crown also represented another significant tie to my passage in racing. I had the pleasure of observing Orb all winter long at Gulfstream in Florida and I was genuinely thrilled to see him win the Derby in the black silks and cherry cap of the Phipps’ and for trainer Shug McGaughey. Not too long ago, I found myself looking back to determine when Shug might have won his last prior Eclipse Award as champion trainer. I have to admit, I was initially a little surprised when I realized that he earned the title in 1988. ‘How could that be?’ I thought. ‘That’s the year Winning Colors won the Derby. Surely, Lukas would have won it that season?’ But very quickly I realized that Winning Colors lost the Breeders’ Cup Distaff in her final race of that season, and more significantly, the mare she lost to was none other than the remarkable Personal Ensign, owned by Ogden Phipps and trained by Shug. Also in 1988, that owner/trainer partnership campaigned champion juvenile colt, another son of Alydar (Yes, I had a thing for Alydar) named Easy Goer.
   By the time the 1989 racing season rolled around, I couldn’t get enough of racing. I read about it, I watched it on TV and I spent literally hundreds of hours poring over stallion registers and a wide array of other racing literature. And I was also positively captivated by Easy Goer. He was the cat’s meow. Heading into that year’s Derby, I couldn’t help but think that we were looking at another Triple Crown winner. Apparently, a racy, near-black colt from California had other ideas. While Sunday Silence would also go on and beat Easy Goer in the Preakness (Oh what heartbreak!), the latter would come back and win the Belmont in ultra-impressive style. That win would propel Easy Goer to victories in the Travers, Whitney, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup. To this day, his loss to Sunday Silence in the Breeders’ Cup Classic ranks among my most heart wrenching moments in racing. On a brighter note, I did have the opportunity to see Easy Goer at Claiborne Farm in 1991 prior to his untimely death. A most remarkable racehorse.

Easy Goer winning the 1989 Belmont

   With the Triple Crown solidly behind us, critics have argued that this year’s 3-year-old crop was average at best and that this season’s Classics simply weren’t fast enough nor impressive enough to stand up in the annals of history. As a serious student of the sport over the past quarter of a century, I can honestly say that the racing community, myself included, have all too often underestimated particular horses and foal crops (while in the moment), and have just as frequently overestimated others. But time reveals all, and only time will tell whether any of this year’s sophomores will be remembered as exceptional. One thing is certain, however, the connections behind each of this year’s Classic winners have indeed withstood the test of time and have amassed records that will, in a grander historical sense, stamp them as not only exceptional, but quite likely, transcendent. And if the passion, commitment and dedication they have poured into the game over the past 25 years is any indication, I think it’s a very good bet that we’ll see all of them back for years to come.

Kentucky Derby 139: Winners & Winners

by Alan Carasso

Now that the dust has settled on Kentucky Derby 139, one that was satisfying on many different levels, some thoughts:

Claude McGaughey III: Shug’s work with Orb has been a study in equine management from the word go. Possessed of some of the fire which lives in his female family, Orb was something of a problem child in his first three starts, and when he finally broke his maiden fourth time out (Revolutionary third), it was plainly one step at a time as the colt shipped down to Payson Park for the winter. After clearing his first allowance condition, Shug went on record saying he’d have preferred a two-other-than, but those are hard to come by and, with really nowhere else to go, put Orb in the GII Fountain of Youth. He won that, defeating Violence, but even then, McGaughey felt the jury was still out. When Orb followed up in the GI Florida Derby, only then did the conditioner realize he was on to something big. Shug has always been classy, even before I visited his barn at Keeneland in 1995 when he had Inside Information for the GI Spinster (she beat Mariah’s Storm that year before airing in the Distaff). He doesn’t know it, but he watched Coronado’s Quest win the ‘98 Haskell from the TDN box at Monmouth, and took the win (narrowly over Belmont winner Victory Gallop) in his stride. Not one to wear his emotions on his sleeve, it was touching to see just how overcome he was with emotion following the win, and most of the racing world is thrilled that he’s finally scaled these heights. Hats off, too, to the Phipps and Janney families, two institutions in the Bluegrass.

(C) Reed Palmer

Joel Rosario: He’s 28 and already a rock star, perhaps the closest thing this country has seen to a ‘Boy Wonder’ since Steve Cauthen. It’s never easy to shift tack from California to the East Coast, but Rosario’s transition has been seamless. He attracted the attention of most of the top barns in Florida over the winter, and earned the mount on Animal Kingdom. A Dubai World Cup and Kentucky Derby in the span of five weeks (and about 3/4 of a million dollars in earnings) is a tremendous feat, not to mention his record 38 winners at Keeneland and his double-digit wins in the first few days at Churchill. All of the Dominican Republic was watching and cheering home their native son. It was front-page news the next day.

Rosie Napravnik: Quietly, ‘Girl Wonder’ had a weekend of her own to remember. She won Friday's GII Alysheba S. on Take Charge Indy and piloted Delaunay to a powerhouse score in the GII Churchill Downs Saturday. Both horses earned 109 Beyers--can you say Breeders’ Cup? Though her big Derby hope Shanghai Bobby went to the sidelines, Rosie picked up the mount on Mylute for the big race and rode him a treat, running on for fifth while not missing second by too much.

Maggi Moss: The Iowa-based owner had a memorable Friday-Saturday Daily Double with So Many Ways in the GIII Eight Belles S. and the aforementioned performance of Delaunay in the Churchill Downs S. Since being claimed for $40,000 last May 12, Delaunay is seven for eight and has earned just shy of $567,000 for Moss alone. Astonishing stuff.

Wise Dan: The Point of Entry scratch (logical as it was) was a bummer, but what can you say about Dan? Shows up every time, runs on anything, he’s simply amazing.

Charles Fipke: Never one to shy away from taking a swing, was represented in the Derby by the slow-starting Java’s War and Golden Soul, the 11th-hour addition many assumed was a toss. Well, you know what happens when you assume.

Todd Pletcher: OK, most of his five Derby runners didn’t acquit themselves particularly well (track conditions probably had some say in this), but he did manage to saddle home the first, third and fourth in Friday’s GI Kentucky Oaks, no small feat. And Revolutionary hardly embarrassed himself in the Derby, finishing a good third. Thinking is Pletcher will be back.

Dr. Scholls: For the uptick in the sales of rubber galoshes to horsemen for the walk over (OK, this is made up).

My TDN cohorts DiDonato and Sherack: DiDonato is nothing short of amazing with his finds. Put me onto 11-1 winner of the Turf Sprint Saturday and I got Chamberlain Bridge to run second (mercifully!) for a $250 score. He also managed to use Golden Soul second for the Derby exacta (uh, I didn’t have that one). Much in the same way I locked onto Street Sense off his maiden, Sherack has been an Orb guy the whole way and put his money where his mouth was on him and Delaunay. Kudos, boys. Can I borrow five bucks?

Racing at large: Despite the off track and the inclement weather, the Derby and other races were truly run affairs with few excuses, other than the underfoot conditions, and absent tragedy (no disrespect here to Dr. Bramlage). TV viewership was up, and, for at least one day, the sun shone down on our Old Kentucky Home, figuratively if not literally.

Kentucky Derby Undercard Analysis

by Brian DiDonato

Click for the TDN Derby Cheat Sheet, presented by Keeneland Select, featuring in-depth Derby analysis from Brian and Steve Sherack.

Race 4 - Msw, 7f - Strike One looks a bit sneaky in here off the bench returning to this strip. He got

completely left at the start of his 6 1/2-furlong unveiling here last June, but put in a head-turning, sweeping move before fading late while displaying some greenness and settling for fourth. The chestnut didn’t factor in a subsequent turf route at Arlington a month later, and was a distant third against four foes going a mile over the Arlington Poly when last seen in September. You wouldn’t think a full-brother to router Summer Doldrums (Street Cry {Ire}) would necessarily want to sprint, but maybe Strike One does. He has a couple of quick works at Palm Meadows in April, and expected progression from the 59 Beyer he earned here last year puts the Brendan Walsh trainee right there at the wire.

Race 5 - Alw, 1 1/16m - It’s entirely possible that he just proves too good for these, but I think horses like Derby defection Code West are always underlays in spots like this. Tiz Adonis is a little intriguing. He broke well to set the pace in a five-horse route at Oaklawn Feb. 3, and while the fractions were average, it was a strangely run event. Another horse made an early move sort of caused the field to get all bunched up, with Tiz Adonis subsequently fading to a fairly close fourth. Third-place finisher Royal Art came back to break his maiden in the same spot Tiz Adonis ran back in, and fifth-place finisher Bashaar, who Tiz Adonis dueled with (if you can call it that), aired by 13 lengths with an 88 Beyer (11-point jump) in the slop next out. Tiz Adonis got a strange stop-go-stop ride next out, but earned his diploma last time despite a wide journey under first-time pilot John Court, who’s back aboard here. The Ron Moquett pupil seems to have figured it all out, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him step forward again. The only question is whether he’s good enough, but the price will be right to find out.

Race 6 - GIII Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. - Not sure I’ve ever seen so little pace in a five-furlong turf sprint. Southern Dude appears to be the speed of the race at first glance, but I don’t think that’s actually the case, especially with Julien Leparoux riding him. I’ll use Southern Dude, but I think the real pace play is Berlino Di Tiger. A Group 1 winner at this trip in his native Brazil, the chestnut chased a :21.21 opening quarter while three deep in his Stateside debut in the Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint Feb. 2 before tiring to eight. He dueled through splits of :21.75 and :44.89 last time in Keeneland’s GIII Shakertown S., and again packed it in, as did the other speeds. Maybe he’s just not very good, but Berlino di Tiger deserves one more chance to show what he can do without having to run too hard early. He might not have to run much at all early here, and they’ll be trying to gun him down in the stretch. Don’t be surprised if he forgets to stop.

Race 7 - GI Humana Distaff - Same Cross couldn’t have been much more impressive in her first three starts on dirt, and seemed destined for success in stakes company. Trainer Larry Jones and owner/breeder Brereton Jones opted to put her on turf for the Happy Ticket S. at the Fair Grounds last time, and she finished a no-excuses fifth at 3-2. Back on the main track here, the 4-year-old could make a big impact while getting a bit more ground to work with. Considering that she was brought along fairly patiently in her first three starts, it has to be a positive sign that she’s being put in a Grade I (maybe not a true Grade I) this time. I’m not banking on the 8-1 morning line being accurate, but I’ll be leaning on Same Cross in the exotics.

Race 8 - GII Distaff Turf Mile - The favorites in here seem pretty formidable, especially defending champ Hungry Island, who probably fits best at the distance and with a fair bit of speed to set her up. I’m intrigued by Karlovy Vary, though, who was second to Hungry Island in a Keeneland allowance last time. Karlovy Vary did all the dirty work pressing a quick pace that day from the two path, while Hungry Island drafted in a perfect ground-saving position. The former clearly ran the better race of the two that day, and while she’s never seemed quite this good despite winning a Grade I, perhaps she’s improved markedly at four. According to DRF Formulator, conditioner Rusty Arnold has struck at a 27% rate with a $3.08 ROI second off the bench in graded stakes over the past five seasons, with Karlovy Vary’s 15-1 upset of the Ashland 13 months ago contributing to that stat.

Race 9 - GII Churchill Downs S. - I’ve thought for a while now that Delaunay looks like a potential Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner, and I did well with Trinniberg in last year’s BC, but it seems likely that they’ll compromise each other mightily on the front end here, setting up for some off-the-pace types and an upset. Hierro, Unbridled’s Note and Pass the Dice are a combined six-for-six over the track and I think they’re the three alternatives with the best chance. I’ll box them in the exacta and use all three in the pick four. I’ll also probably use Delaunay defensively in the pick four, because I’m more confident in him running his race than Trinniberg off relatively short rest since flopping in Dubai.

Race 10 - GI Turf Classic - Hard to imagine on of the two favorites doesn’t take this--at least it allows for spreading elsewhere.

Kentucky Oaks Day Analysis

by Brian DiDonato

GI Kentucky Oaks - Obviously, any discussion of this race has to start with Dreaming of Julia,
whose 21 3/4-length romp in the Gulfstream Park Oaks last time came from pretty much nowhere--she’s always been decent, but that was otherworldly. I’m going to go out on a limb and say she that if she runs back to that race, she’ll probably have a say. I’m not expecting her to, however. That performance was so anomalous that I’m inclined to cross it out completely, which makes her look more like a fringe contender who might have too much early speed in a race that looks poised for a meltdown. Also note that Pletcher trainees who run huge at Gulfstream often flop elsewhere in their subsequent starts. She’ll be nowhere on my tickets at what has to be a much lower price than her 3-1 morning line (Right? If she wins and pays $8, we should probably all feel a little stupid)...

   Speaking of a meltdown, Silsita, Midnight Lucky, Beholder and Rose to Gold are all tosses for me because they’re too quick early and/or seem to have distance concerns.

    Notice that I didn’t mention Close Hatches, who has been on the lead in her last two--she’s my pick. The theory with her is that she only set the pace in those spots because she was more talented than her competition. She didn’t really look like she was freewheeling out there in either race--she was rating very kindly, but just happened to have nobody to run with. The Juddmonte colorbearer is likely to find herself much farther back this time, especially with the 10 post. She was well out of it in her smashing seven-panel debut (which immediately reminded me of Royal Delta’s unveiling), and I see no reason to expect Joel Rosario to send for the lead or to think she’ll drag her way up there. You could certainly find fault with how easy her last two trips have been, and she hasn’t run particularly fast yet, but the Bill Mott trainee has made an excellent impression since arriving in Kentucky and still appears to have tons of upside. She’s clearly the value.

    In the pick four and other exotics, I’ll also use the obvious Unlimited Budget and Pure Fun, who has been a disappointment in 2013, but may wake back up returning to Churchill. I’ll also toss in a tiny bit of Seaneen Girl underneath. She has a win over the track and could clunk up for third. 
 

Close Hatches                                       David Alcosser      

 

Undercard Thoughts:
 

Race 4 - Alw/OC, 7f - If the field stays intact, there should be enough pace to set up Devious d’Oro. She flew home to score on debut going six furlongs at Oaklawn Feb. 24, and had a tough trip when stretched out Apr. 13. She practically blew the first turn while traveling in last and had a bit of traffic trouble in the lane before running on for third. I’m thinking she might show a better kick cutting back despite a pretty stout pedigree, and is unlikely to take much action.

Race 5 - Msw, 9fT - Strike Charmer at anywhere near her 10-1 morning line would be an absolute gift. The daughter of turf stakes winner Cat Charmer (Storm Cat) (a half-sister herself to Derby third-place finisher Impeachment) didn’t show much early in her Keeneland debut, but came flying in the lane while weaving through traffic to be third. She covered her final quarter in :22.35, more than a full second faster than winner Praia, who’s entered in the Edgewood.

Race 6 - GII La Troienne S. - I don’t have a particularly strong opinion here, but I could see playing a pick three or something using only Authenticity and More Chocolate. Their last-out speed figures are pretty comparable to those earned by On Fire Baby and Believe You Can. The latter might go off at odds-on considering she took the Oaks here a year ago and because perpetually overbet Rosie Napravnik is aboard.

Race 7 - Edgewood S. - What a tough race--would like to have as much coverage as possible. The horse that interests me the most is Adriani, who has had two very tough trips since joining the David Fawkes barn. She chased a quick pace four wide two back at Gulfstream, only to fall a neck short to subsequent GIII Appalachian S. winner Unbelievable Dream. According to Trakus data, Adriani covered 14 feet (about 1.6 lengths) more than the winner that day, and Unbelievable Dream covered a ton more ground than almost everybody else. Third that day was Emotional Kitten, who came back to nip Adriani by a nose last time going this distance at Keeneland. Again, though, Adriani had a major excuse--she pressed crazy opening splits of :22.68 and :47.16. There’s other pace in here, and Joe Rocco Jr. will have to work out a trip from the 11 hole, but Adriani is a whole lot better than she looks at first glance and has to be double-digit odds.

Race 8 - GIII Eight Belles - Yet another brutally tough race with plenty of longshot potential... Morning line favorite Calistoga can obviously win, but she’ll have to contend with the 14 hole and plenty of other pace. There are a few turnbacks who have to be included, most notably So Many Ways, winner of the GI Spinaway S. at this trip last year. For a potential longshot win bet candidate, I like Gold Medal Dancer. She put in a very impressive stretch run at Oaklawn last time to increase her career record to two-for-two. The stablemate and paternal sibling to the aforementioned Devious d’Oro figures to be flying late.

Race 9 - GII Alysheba S. - Maybe he’s hopeless, but I’m taking a small flyer on Right to Vote, whose close defeat at 37-1 first out at Saratoga in 2011 still haunts me. I’m keying in on one race of his as maybe a clue that he can surprise. He was 47-1 in the GII Peter Pan S. last May, but stayed on for second while setting very hot splits behind Mark Valeski, who recently finished second in the GII New Orleans S. and would have been a contender here. Right to Vote earned a 94 Beyer for that effort--considering his trip that day, the potential for improvement from then ,stretching back out and the fact that he gets first-time Lasix on the owner/trainer change here, he may be capable of running a competitive figure at a gigantic price.

Race 10 - GII American Turf S. - Obviously War Dancer would offer value at 6-1 off his crazy run last time, but there’s no way he goes off at that price. I’ll be betting Joelito, who was very sharp in his maiden-breaking turf debut last out. He should get first run on some of the shorter-priced runners in here, and it’s interesting that red-hot Joel Rosario takes the call when he rode 4-1 morning line Admiral Kitten last time and 8-1 shot Fire Guard in his last three. Rosario last piloted Joelito when he split Den’s Legacy and Ive Struck a Nerve sprinting at Del Mar in August.

Race 12 - Msw, 7f - Likely favorite Double Gelato exits a very weak maiden race and trainer Rusty Arnold is two-for-33 (6%) with a $0.57 ROI with his second-time-starting maidens in dirt sprints over the past five years (courtesy DRF Formulator), so there’s value to be had elsewhere. Assuming I’m not broke at this point, I’ll try Greek Life. She showed late interest in her six-furlong unveiling at Fair Grounds Mar. 30, and conditioner Steve Margolis’ numbers in the same category mentioned above for Arnold are much better--he hits at a 28% clip with a $2.16 ROI (Margolis also has Delilahjane here making her second start as well). Greek Life is the first foal out of a stakes-winning mare who was two-for-two at seven panels, including once over this strip.

Good luck Friday, and check back here for Saturday undercard thoughts or in Friday's newsletter for Derby analysis from myself and the "Road to the Derby Showdown" champ himself, Steve Sherack.

 

More Kentucky Derby Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

Be sure to also check out my Oaks thoughts as well as Steve Sherack and my Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet. Good luck at the windows this weekend!

GI Kentucky Derby - Much of the talk surrounding this year's GI Kentucky Derby has come down to the pace scenario, and rightly so. The relatively late addition of Trinniberg (Teuflesburg) added lots of fuel to the projected fire, and I'm in the majority who see the longshot's presence as a serious issue for several contenders. Trinniberg does not guarantee a Giacomo-type meltdown, but he certainly makes it a possibility. 
   There is little doubt that Bodemeister (Empire Maker) is the most talented runner in this field--his Beyers tower over his competition, and he seems to get even stronger the farther he runs. His pedigree screams 10 furlongs on both top and bottom, and his sheer dominance and the way he has reportedly trained give me no reason to fear his lack of 2-year-old foundation. The pace is the only thing that will beat him, so I'm playing this race horizontally to account for two possible scenarios. If the pace doesn't materialize or if Bodemeister rates effectively, he will win at a reasonably short price (better for those of us who got him at 22-1 in the third round of futures). But if he gets into a tussle early, all bets are off, and there's a very good chance that Hansen (Tapit) among others will also be compromised. The rest of the horses I'll use in the Pick 3s and 4s are mostly runners who would benefit from the second scenario. I'll also play trifectas based on the second scenario because that's the one that has the potential to yield giant pay-offs if a horse like Done Talking (Broken Vow) or Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit) gets into the number.

Done Talking      Four-Footed Fotos

   I've decided to stick with my original pick from way back in November and go with Done Talking on top. I know it sounds kind of crazy. On paper, he looks much, much too slow. But I think he's capable of running faster, and I know he's going to get the distance and be running late if the race falls apart. Done Talking is the prototypical grinder. He's never going to win by open lengths, and he seems to be a horse who requires a lot of rider encouragement to do his best. When he feels like it, he comes running late, but he'll never do more than he has to. That's probably not exactly what you want to see from your Derby horse, but it also might explain why his figures are so low and why they can improve to a level that is competitive if the set-up is right. I'm not investing too much on him in win money, but I'll take a shot with him at upwards of 50-1 and use him as an "A" in the Pick 4.

Dullahan    Reed Palmer

   My third main Pick 4 include and a horse who I will anchor in meltdown scenario trifectas is Dullahan (Even the Score). There just doesn't seem like much not to like about him. The half-brother to Derby winner Mine That Bird (Birdstone) runs as if more distance will suit him quite well and I'm not sold on the notion that he won't be as effective on dirt. His fourth-place finish in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile from much too far back was fine enough to show that he can handle the surface, and his very powerful GI Blue Grass S. victory showed he has improved from two to three. He was a horse early on who always gave the impression that he had more to give once he figured it out, so it's no surprise that the hulking chestnut has gotten better as time has gone on. He just fits the profile in so many ways, and I wonder if Dullahan ends up being the shorter-priced morning line horse who gets lost on the board a bit. It seems as if I've heard much more chatter about some of his competitors, and I'm not sure he has the attributes that capture the casual wagering public's attention in a race like the Derby. I'll be happy to see him drift up, and would consider a second win bet if he were to somehow float all the way up to 12-1 or higher.
   The second-tier win candidates I'll use as "Bs" or "Cs" in the Pick 4 are Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) and Gemologist (Tiznow). As I mentioned on the Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet, my original inclination was to dismiss Take Charge Indy as a horse who got an easy lead last time and who would be in trouble with hotter expected fractions in the Derby. But I've come to the realization that there's simply no way he's sent close to the early lead by Calvin Borel. I generally think jockeys are an irrelevant handicapping factor, but when it comes to Churchill Downs and particularly the Derby, Borel does seem to have a tactical edge. He's bound to take money due to Borel's presence, but I wonder how much room mathematically there is for Take Charge Indy's odds to go down considering how some other contenders figure to be bet. I could never bet him to win, but I'm not going to get beat by a Borel-ridden son of A.P. Indy in a 10-furlong race. I'll also use Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway), who has done little wrong in his career. My main concern with him is that he'll find someone a little bit better. I thought his win over Bodemeister in the GII San Felipe was in part a product of a fairly quick pace and I'm not crazy about the figure regression he showed when taking off blinkers (which will stay off in the Derby). But his best races fit well enough and his consistency is an attribute we rarely see these days. Gemologist is hard to argue with on paper, but the way he has been handled this year makes me slightly hesitant. I'm also not sure where he'll find himself early. If he's in a stalking spot and the pace is less than suicidal, he's not beating Bodemeister. Some minor knocks have me thinking he's an underlay at 6-1 or so, but he's too obvious to toss completely.
   I discussed why I wasn't sold on Union Rags (Dixie Union) before the GI Florida Derby here, and nothing about his much-talked-about trip in that race did anything to change my mind. I suppose he could have moved sooner, but he saved all the ground and should've made a bigger late run despite the slow pace if he was really deserving of favoritism here. There's an idea floating around that he doesn't like being inside of horses, and the four post won't help matters if there's any validity to that notion. I still say he's too slow to be favored or close in odds to Bodemeister, and I'll let him beat me.

GI Turf Classic S. - The flashy Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic) looks to be in some trouble as he tries to defend his title. He'll have to contend with Little Mike (Spanish Steps) and Turbo Compressor (Halo's Image) early, and it seems likely to be the undoing of all three speedsters. The most interesting closer from a value perspective could be Brilliant Speed (Dynaformer). He ran a huge and somewhat surprising race to be third in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Turf, and the stretch-out to nine furlongs from the mile of the GIII Appleton should suit him well--he might be better going even longer, but he took the GI Blue Grass S. last semester over Polytrack.

GI Humana Distaff S. - There are an awful lot of closers in here for a seven-furlong race, so I'll take a small shot with huge price Mildly Offensive (Sharp Humor). She dueled through quick splits last time when taking an Apr. 5 Santa Anita allowance and the Moss Pace Figures say she'll get the lead if she wants it. Her recent Beyers are woefully slow, but she did earn a 98 in the slop last year. Maybe that surface moved her up, but at 20-1, I'm willing to gamble that she can control things early and cycle back up towards her top.

GII Distaff Turf Mile S. - I really, really like Hungry Island (More Than Ready) in this spot. She never got the credit she deserved last year when stringing together four victories, and she comes off a pair of troubled trips behind Marketing Mix (Medaglia d'Oro). The Emory Hamilton homebred was shut off and stymied on the inside when full of run in the Nov. 12 GII Miss Revere S. over this course, but got through late to be third. She had the opposite problem in a Keeneland allowance allowance Apr. 11 when putting in a sustained rally from what the chart caller labeled as seven wide. According to Trakus data, Hungry Island lost 1 3/4 lengths worth of ground to winner Marketing Mix, who beat her by 1 1/4 lengths. That doesn't factor in the pace dynamics--Marketing Mix was up close to reasonable fractions whereas Hungry Island came from far back. Hungry Island should have more to run at this time, and I'll look for her to come flying late, probably with Aruna (Mr. Greeley) alongside.

GII Churchill Downs S. - He won't be any sort of price, but Shackleford (Forestry) will be tough to beat. I've seen pictures from the GI Carter H. that show that he was bleeding pretty noticeably, which might explain why he couldn't hold on after setting easy fractions. He still earned a very solid 106 Beyer for his third-place run and likes the track--chalky, but rightfully so.

Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet

--Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack

Looking for a short and handy rundown of all GI Kentucky Derby contestants to take to the track or OTB? Look no further--see below, or click here for a downloadable pdf version of our Kentucky Derby Cheat Sheet.

1 - DADDY LONG LEGS (Scat Daddy--Dreamy Maiden, by Meadowlake) - 1st G2 UAE Derby - 30-1 - SS: Follows the same blueprint as Master of Hounds (better-than-expected fifth in '11 Derby after a close second in Dubai), but hard to forgive the lackluster performance in last year’s Juvenile in his lone try on dirt... No thanks. BD: Think he's a really nice turf/synth horse, but not interested in him on this surface... Stride looks extremely grassy to me and post is far from optimal.

2 - OPTIMIZER (English Channel--Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) - 9th GI Arkansas Derby - 50-1 - SS: You really didn’t think that they’d run the Kentucky Derby without D. Wayne Lukas, did you? Inconsistent homebred fired nicely when second at 27-1 in Rebel, but has to answer for double-digit defeats in Arkansas Derby/Risen Star, and last year’s Juvenile... Even if he feels like running Saturday, it won’t be enough. BD: His one competitive dirt race was an optical illusion--he wasn’t “full of run” like the chart says--leader Secret Circle was slowing... Would be a complete jaw-dropper.

3 - TAKE CHARGE INDY (A.P. Indy--Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) - 1st GI Florida Derby - 15-1 - BD: Original inclination was to toss well-bred runner as a pace casualty, but think he'll find himself off the leaders here with Trinniberg in... Borel factor could be both a positive and negative--should get the right trip, but might be over bet. SS: Was handed the Florida Derby on a silver platter, and will take much more tote action than he deserves because of the pilot... Will let him beat me at an underlay.

4 - UNION RAGS (Dixie Union--Tempo, by Gone West) - 3rd GI Florida Derby - 9-2 - SS: If you think Leparoux gave him a bad ride in the Florida Derby, wait and see what happens if he doesn’t secure early positioning in a 20-horse field... Have been a fan since the debut victory and he won’t have a problem staying the Classic distance, but career-best 95 Beyer just isn’t going to cut it. BD: Still trying to figure out what was so bad about his trip last time... Hate that he hasn't improved from two to three figure-wise... Reportedly working up a storm, but he'll be my shortest-priced toss.

5 - DULLAHAN (Even the Score--Mining my Own, by Smart Strike) - 1st GI Blue Grass S. - 8-1 - BD: Not as concerned about dirt as others--his Juvenile performance was fine... Figures to love the distance and certain to be rolling late; a must use. SS: Is much more developed since decent fourth over track in Juvenile, and hard to argue with what Romans has accomplished during the Triple Crown series the past three seasons, including a third-place finish from near carbon copy Paddy O’Prado in 2010... A major player.

6 - BODEMEISTER (Empire Maker--Untouched Talent, by Storm Cat) - 1st GI Arkansas Derby - 4-1 - BD: Hard to argue with what he has done so far... Almost certainly the most talented runner in the field and deserving of top billing--getting caught too close to a hot pace could be his undoing, but if not, the race is over. SS: If he can keep his cool while Trinniberg runs wild early, I don’t care how many years it’s been since an unraced juvenile captured the roses, the rest of them will be running for second.

7 - ROUSING SERMON (Lucky Pulpit--Rousing Again, by Awesome Again) - 3rd GII Louisiana Derby - 50-1 - SS: Jerry Hollendorfer didn’t get inducted into the Hall of Fame by spotting his horses where they don’t belong... Stone-closer is only a neck removed from being a Grade I winner at two, and will have plenty of pace to run at here; live longshot. BD: Think he's been up against it in a few of his races, and wouldn't be shocked at all if he clunks up for a piece... Can't see him winning, though.

8 - CREATIVE CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway--Dream of Summer, by Siberian Summer) - 2nd GI Santa Anita Derby - 12-1 - SS: Remarkably consistent gray is one of a select few in the field to crack triple-digits on the Beyer scale, and is tactical enough to land in the garden spot... Has shown immaturity at times despite solid foundation at two, but can put on a show as an overlay if he remains focused. BD: Have no major knocks on him other than that I think he'll find at least one horse better on Saturday... Agree that his consistency is an asset, but not sure he'll be an overlay on the win end--likely to finish towards the top, though.

9 - TRINNIBERG (Teuflesberg--Bella Dorato, by Goldminers Gold) - 1st GIII Bay Shore S. - 50-1 - SS: The 2012 example of the extremely talented sprinter that was never the same after trying his hand in the Derby. BD: Nice horse, wrong spot...

10 - DADDY NOSE BEST (Scat Daddy--Follow Your Bliss, by Thunder Gulch) - 1st GIII Sunland Derby - 15-1 - BD: Could not have had a better set-up at Sunland and the 100 Beyer he received seems inflated... I guess he could fall into a similar trip here, but it's hard to project something like that and think he's a cut below. SS: Has made a big jump from two to three with a pair of wins, albeit in second-tier prep races... Capable of further improvement for top barn, but just don’t think he’s good enough to make an impact at this level.

11 - ALPHA (Bernardini--Munnaya, by Nijinsky II) - 2nd GI Wood Memorial - 15-1 - SS: Missed valuable training time after emerging from valiant second in the Wood with an infected wound... Seems to have overcome gate woes, but big crowd could lead to another meltdown. BD: Thought he was a bit slow and dressed up before the Wood... Seemed to improve there, but again had things his own way... Not sold, but do fear him a bit on the basis that he should get the distance.

12 - PROSPECTIVE (Malibu Moon--Spirited Away, by Awesome Again) - 6th GI Blue Grass S. - 30-1 - BD: His best races have come on synthetic and the very quirky Tampa dirt and still wouldn't be enough... Would be shocked if he won. SS: Registered a career high when the hood was added in the Tampa Bay Derby, but has flopped in his two attempts against the big boys, including a last-of-13 effort in the Juvenile... Can’t toss quick enough.

13 - WENT THE DAY WELL (Proud Citizen--Tiz Maie's Day, by Tiznow) - 1st GIII Spiral S. - 20-1 - BD: Was aided by a fast pace at Turfway against a pretty weak bunch... Doubt he's another Animal Kingdom, and comparisons to his stablemate might deflate his price. SS: Don’t think he’s half the horse Animal Kingdom was at this time last year, and figures to go off at similar odds... Next.

14 - HANSEN (Tapit--Stormy Sunday, by Sir Cat) - 2nd GI Blue Grass S. - 10-1 - BD: Respect his ability and he ran better than I was expecting in the Blue Grass... More distance and more company up front can't be good for him, though--think he's up against it. SS: Always nice to see the Juvenile champ come back to perform at a high level at three, but pace scenario and Classic distance will prove too much for the flashy gray.

15 - GEMOLOGIST (Tiznow--Crystal Shard, by Mr. Prospector) - 1st GI Wood Memorial - 6-1 - SS: Speed Figures continue to rise with each trip to post as he remains unbeaten, and seemed to be toying with Alpha in narrow Wood victory... Two wins over the track are a major plus, and connections know what it takes to get it done on the First Saturday in May. BD: Not crazy about how he has been handled , and wonder how his fitness will be with such an easy campaign so far in 2012... Enough positives for me to use defensively somewhere, but think he'll be over bet.

16 - EL PADRINO (Pulpit--Enchanted Rock, by Giant’s Causeway) - 4th GI Florida Derby - 20-1 - SS: Just wasn’t the same horse in the Florida Derby after beginning 2012 campaign with a pair of highly-regarded victories... Price should be right to find out if he can bounce back, and gets a major upgrade if the track comes up wet. BD: Win over Take Charge Indy in GP allowance came because TCI moved too soon... Risen Star was okay, but no excuses in the Florida Derby and workout reports have been less than stellar... Could be another Bluegrass Cat, but I doubt it.

17 - DONE TALKING (Broken Vow--Dixie Talking, by Dixieland Band) - 1st GIII Illinois Derby - 50-1 - BD: I know, I know--he's really slow and got a nice set-up in a weak race last time... But I've been a believer since day one, and think he's perfectly primed for big improvement... Probably won't be enough, but he'll be a giant price, so why not take a shot? SS: Stretch runner handled big fields, traffic, and slow fractions like a pro in the Remsen and Ill Derby... Speed figures say he doesn’t belong, but minor award isn’t impossible if it falls apart.

18 - SABERCAT (Bluegrass Cat--Miner's Blessing, by Forty Niner) - 3rd GI Arkansas Derby - 30-1 - BD: Has the earnings thanks to a pace meltdown in a historically negative key race for the Derby... Was better last time, and might fall into another dream trip, but just not sold and can't use them all. SS: Son of '06 Derby runner-up will prove once again why the Delta Jackpot shouldn’t be a "Win and You’re In" event for the big dance.

19 - I'll HAVE ANOTHER (Flower Alley--Arch's Gal Edith, by Arch) - 1st GI Santa Anita Derby - 12-1 - BD: Just enough knocks against for me to toss him at his expected price... Seems a bit fragile and have a feeling this will prove too much to ask of him. SS: Validated 43-1 Lewis score with narrow tally over Creative Cause in a thrilling renewal of the Santa Anita Derby... One of the feel-good stories of the year with Gutierrez staying aboard, but light campaign and recent shockwave therapy report are major concerns.

20 - LIAISON (Indian Charlie--Galloping Gal, by Victory Gallop) - 6th GI Santa Anita Derby 50-1 - SS: CashCall Futurity winner hasn’t done a thing since turning three, but clearly three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert is thinking... I have no clue what he’s thinking!!! BD: Didn't love him even when he was winning... Distance probably won't do him any favors; hard to fathom.

21 (AE) - MY ADONIS (Pleasantly Perfect--Silent Justice, by Elusive Quality) - 7th GI Wood Memorial - 50-1 - BD: Has been inconsistent in both running style and overall performance... Rushing here last minute can’t be a good thing, either... Not using if he gets in. SS: On the outside looking in, and hard to support following dismal effort in the Wood... Off track is his only hope.

DiDonato's Top Five:             

1-Done Talking
2-Dullahan
3-Bodemeister
4-Take Charge Indy
5-Creative Cause
Wild Card: Rousing Sermon

Sherack's Top Five:

1-Creative Cause

2-Dullahan

3-Bodemeister

4-Gemologist

5-El Padrino

Wild Card: Rousing Sermon

Guest Post: Derby Week Dictionary

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

   If you are a veteran of Derby week, i.e. watch morning training either at Churchill or the tape-delayed version on one of the racing networks, or simply keep up with the racing scene, you have heard all these comments and expressions before. These handy dandy simplifying translations are intended to help the uninitiated who may not be properly versed in the vague, dodgy trainer lingo which routinely replaces the everyday English language on the Downs' backstretch. This rephrasing will not be limited to trainer dialogue, though that is clearly the meat and potatoes of this perplexing double-talk. Can't quite understand the mysterious handicapper slang? It's all explained right here in this easy (ya, right) to understand, all-encompassing, gibberish made easy for the rookie Derby-follower.

Let's begin with the Trainish-English dictionary, shall we?

"He went super!" - Stock answer when pressed for a comment shortly after said trainer's Derby runner(s) just finished a morning workout. Never mind that unless the trainer witnessed the work from the 3rd floor of the grandstand, he likely failed to see three-quarters of it thanks to the jungle of corporate tents, etc. in the Churchill infield. This stock answer covers 5/8 works timed anywhere from :58.00 to 1:03 (and change) and 3/4 works between 1:11 and 1:15. Any reporter foolish enough to ask a question regarding a work on either side of these parameters will immediately be escorted from the grounds.

"He loves this track!" - The trainer's horse may have only just jogged a mile after arriving on the grounds the previous night, but hey, why not put an immediate positive spin on one day's worth of light training? Any trainer quoted as saying his charge "didn't handle the surface" (wet tracks excluded) will be promptly examined by trackside medics and, if deemed fit, whisked away to join the unnaturally honest, trainer/racing network analyst Tom Amoss on set.

"I ran a short horse." - He could be, but no, he's not referring to his horse's physical stature! This trainer is, in essence, taking one for the team--claiming he failed to have his horse fit enough for a race in which he was beaten double-digit lengths. Yes, the nine published workouts in the Daily Racing Form would seem to refute his claim, but let's not admit at this late stage that perhaps his colt's Derby should in fact be the Derby Trial the previous Saturday.

"We just decided to give him an extra day off." - If ever you hear these words muttered during Derby week, just put a big, red slash through that horse's name in your DRF. It really doesn't matter what the trainer sugar-coats that comment with once those words are spoken. In the crucial week leading up to the Derby, where there's smoke, there is fire. In this case, a raging inferno!

"He popped a quarter crack last week, but our farrier patched it and it's a non-issue now." - ISSUE!!! During Derby week, the Churchill surface is harder than quantum physics! There is no way that foot won't be pinching him significantly in the race as well as the training days leading up to it. Get that red marker out...

To be fair (just this once), these poor conditioners are asked the same ten silly questions over and over again by a mostly uninformed Derby media. It's no wonder they cook up certain "stock" answers.

Guest Post: My Richelieu Initiation, Bodemeister and Dullahan

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

 On an already sweltering late Sunday morning during the summer of 1969, my uncle Benny, cigar in mouth, was putting the finishing touches on polishing his modest Ford Falcon. I'd just finished an hour's worth of joyous play with my prized toy, a remote controlled (well, with cord attached) green robot called "Great Garloo."

   As I walked barefoot into the kitchen, the strong odor from my uncle's cigar collided quite unsympathetically with the always comforting smell of my grandmother's hot apple cake. "What are you doing this afternoon?" asked my uncle. "Nothing, why?" was my reply. "Do you want to come to the races with me?" "Sure" I said, not even knowing what kind of races he was referring to.
About twenty minutes later, with an excited 12-year-old in tow, Uncle Benny was backing his shiny Ford out of our driveway on Bloomfield Avenue in the Montreal borough of Outremont. We headed east of the city, passing some smelly, ugly refineries along the way that made me roll up (remember that?) my window. Finally, we wheeled into the very unassuming, yet bustling gravel parking lot (remember those?) of Richelieu Raceway.
   There was a certain excitement in the air. My uncle grabbed two fresh cigars from a sizeable, wooden box marked "Dutch Masters," putting them in the breast pocket of his freshly-ironed, short-sleeved shirt. Pushing down our door knobs (remember those?), we locked the car and walked up to the main (only) admission gate. The sun was shining. I had to almost run to keep up with the suddenly swift cadence in my uncle's step. I could clearly hear the sound of horse's hooves hitting the firm racing surface as they warmed up, still out of sight on the other side of a tall, wooden fence to our right.
   $1.25 (really) got both of us safely through the turnstiles and even a program to boot! My first of many questions that day related to the strange-looking bikes attached to the rear of the horses. These were Standardbreds, not Thoroughbreds my uncle explained. The bikes looked unnatural I thought, but not nearly as strange as the big, white, bubble-topped, metal-winged Cadillac which dispatched the eight participants at the starting pole for the first race.
   After a brief explanation from my uncle on win, place, show, quinella and exacta, I decided, with a full two races of experience under my new, suede leather cowboy belt, to wager $2.00 in race 3. Throwing caution to the wind--it being Benny's two bucks--I decided on a place bet on a 3-1 chance called Speedy Ed. My uncle handed me the ticket which I quickly stuffed into my pants pocket like it was a new pack of Montreal Expos baseball cards.
   My heart was racing as the horses left the mobile starting gate, my eyes locked on the #5 saddle cloth of Speedy Ed. To be honest, it wouldn't have mattered a bit where Speedy Ed finished (he won), I was hooked! I was beaming as we waited to cash my ticket in the $2.00 Place line (remember those days?). Due largely to the 4-5 favorite finishing third, I cashed a fat $4.20 place ticket. Forget the Great Garloo, my new hero was a real life gelding named Speedy Ed!
   I tell this story because even 40 some odd years later, it remains quite vivid in a memory (as my wife often reminds me) that has become somewhat clouded at my ripe old age of 54. Hey, how many guys can actually remember if that chick flick your wife wants to see starts at 6:50, 7:10 or 7:20?

Sophomore Spotlight: Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GI BLUE GRASS S. - While favorite Hansen (Tapit) showed somewhat of a new dimension in rating a bit last time when winning the GIII Gotham S., he's very vulnerable here. There's a ton of early speed signed on, and even if he's not on the lead, he'll be close enough to it that it should take its toll--especially at a distance farther than the champ has ever gone. I like two horses to upset the speedy grey--Dullahan (Even the Score) and Holy Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}). I'll use both in Pk3s and 4s, will box them in the exacta and will bet one to win (9-2 seems fair on Dullahan; 15-1 on Holy Candy).

Dullahan works up a storm at Keeneland
Coady Photography

   Dullahan seemed talented, but a bit lost in the first few starts of his career before the light came on and the half-brother to Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird graduated with a very solid off-the-pace effort in this venue's GI Breeders' Futurity S. in October. His connections opted for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile over the the turf equivalent, and Dullahan did little to undermine that decision. He was simply too far out of things early, but came running at the end to be fourth, beaten six lengths by the front-running Hansen. The chestnut resurfaced in the Mar. 11 GIII Palm Beach S. over nine furlongs of the Gulfstream sod, and came up a length short of fellow Blue Grass entrant Howe Great (Hat Trick {Jpn} while getting the worst of it. Whereas Howe Great saved ground while close up to a reasonable pace, Dullahan was at his usual spot towards the back of a compact field. He was forced to go very wide at the head of the lane while the eventual winner hugged the rail, and Dullahan just couldn't overcome the added real estate he was forced to cover. According to Trakus data, Dullahan traveled 44 feet more than Howe Great, which translates to more than five lengths. Dullahan did reportedly pop a splint in the interim, but it hasn't seemed to bother the Dale Romans trainee--he fired a five-furlong bullet in a super-quick :57 2/5 over the Poly here last Sunday. The Keeneland clocker comment said of the spin: "was impressive, loves the surface, out in 1:10 2/5." That proven affinity for Keeneland's somewhat quirky main track and a hot expected pace make Dullahan the one to beat.
   I already made the case for Holy Candy in my analysis of the GI Santa Anita Derby last week (click here), and nothing has changed. The pace should be more to the recent graduate's liking in this spot than it would have been last week, and while I'd be betting with both fists if Holy Candy were to go off near his morning line price of 30-1, I'm not quite expecting such a generous number. He'll still offer significant value, though, and should be moving well late along with Dullahan.

Bodemeister (inside) tries to hold off
Creative Cause   Benoit Photo

GI ARKANSAS DERBY - He'll probably go favored, but I expect Bodemeister (Empire Maker) to score here and stamp himself as a major Derby contender. When horses break their maidens with very high Beyer Speed Figures, like the 101 Bodemeister earned for his second-out 9 1/4-length romp, they almost always regress in their subsequent starts. But the Zayat colorbearer paired that 101 next out, nearly denying GI Santa Anita Derby runner-up Creative Cause in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 10. He pressed a hot pace that day (nine points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale) and did very well to hang on as much as he did (despite drifting out a bit) considering his lack of seasoning. Another start under his belt and more time to develop could lay the foundation for a figure progression, and any step forward from a 101 would make Bodemeister extremely tough to beat. The biggest question is whether or not he can rate, or at least harness his speed while setting the pace. I'm confident that he can and will. Bodemeister sheds blinkers for this, gets a rider switch to the patient Mike Smith and seems as if he has been getting some schooling in the mornings. Check out this HRTV video of his four-furlong spin at Santa Anita in :46 4/5 Mar. 23--he was able to relax and finish very well from behind a group of horses. I still say he's one of the most promising and best-bred for the Derby distance of this sophomore crop, and hope my future wager on Bodemeister at 22-1 will look like value after Saturday.
   The only horse I'll use as a back-up is Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones), who couldn't have made a more unnecessarily wide, premature move after enjoying a perfect spot behind a pair of dueling leaders in the GIII Sunland Park Derby Mar. 25. He takes off the blinkers and gets a rider switch off that runner-up finish.