Friday, November 2, 2012

Battle at the Breeders' Cup: Saturday

DAY 1 RESULTS: SS: Got blanked on day one, but had some pretty decent runs for my money out of Marketing Mix, Include Me Out and Sweet Shirley Mae. A lot more confident in my picks today, but have already started working on DiDonato to wire me some money after his big score in the Juvenile Fillies Turf just in case. Wagered: $315. Returned: $0. Net: -$315.

BD: The day started off the way it usually does for me in these contests--with a scratch. Steve and I agreed that any scratched horse’s win bet would be divided among the day’s other picks without going over the max bet, so I had an extra $5 to win on Flotilla ($205 total) because of Super Ninety Nine. The Juvenile Fillies Turf helped make it a pretty successful day, but I couldn’t connect with much else. Steve’s got plenty of ammo left, so it figures to be an exciting Saturday. Wagered: $730. Returned: $2542. Net: +$1812. 

JUVENILE TURF - SS: Should get fair value on local hopeful Gervinho, who punched home nicely to secure course-and-distance Zuma Beach. Everything Gaines sends out is pretty live right now. Play: $50.

BD: Fantastic Moon reminds me a bit of Wrote from last year, and he's the type of Euro I look for--great late kick and has already gone a mile, plus it seems like he likes firm turf. He had a bit of an excuse in the Royal Lodge. Gervinho is also interesting. Play: $150.

F/M SPRINT - SS: With an aggressive ride by Leparoux, the rapidly improving Dust and Diamonds can be very dangerous if she stays out the seven furlongs. Impossible to knock deserving chalk Groupie Doll; Rumor is my wise-guy horse for underneath. Play: $200.

BD: Groupie Doll's just supposed to win this, so I'm not going to invest much trying to beat her, but Switch is probably the best value. Everyone knows she's a better sprinter and her last three works look very upbeat. Play: $10.

DIRT MILE - SS: Fed Biz looked like one of the more promising sophomores this winter before hitting the sidelines. Ran his eye-balls out in El Cajon win off the layoff, and may’ve still been feeling the effects of that when third as the chalk in the Indiana Derby. Rail Trip interests me a little at a price here, too. Play: $200.

BD: A pace collapse seems likely. Rail Trip turns back off a pair of wide journeys, and should sit in a good stalking spot. Play: $60.

TURF SPRINT - SS: Haven’t had much luck in this race since its inception, and have no choice but to back Corporate Jungle after chasing him in his last two. Hoping the turn back in distance does the trick. Expecting/hoping for a much better price than 6-1. Play: $50.

BD: I spent forever trying to come up with a solid opinion in this race, but had no such luck--it's just too hard. Going with Unbridled's Note before I change my mind again. Play: $30.

JUVENILE - SS: Thought Capo Bastone was the real deal after his visually impressive maiden win at Del Mar, and he’s had absolutely no luck in two subsequent attempts at the top level. Today is the day. Play: $100.

BD: I really liked He's Had Enough's debut, and don't think he's had a fair chance to run in his last two. Gets first dirt and has a bullet work over the surface--better than the 30-1+ he’ll be. Play: $30.

TURF - SS: No strong opinions here, and was very unimpressed with how morning-line favorite Point of Entry looked on the track the other morning. Small play on longshot Cogito, who has every right to move forward off disappointing fourth in U.S. debut off layoff. Play: $20.

BD: The Bris speed figure Trailblazer earned for his runner-up effort in the Arroyo Secco Mile makes him look very tough here at what's his preferred trip. Same trainer as Arc runner-up Orfevre, and might help soften the blow of that tough beat. Play: $140.

SPRINT - SS: Not much of a secret who I’ll be backing in this wide-open contest if you read today’s feature on The Lumber Guy. Wasn’t crazy about him on paper, but including Gantry if he’s a big enough price after watching him train Thursday. Play: $100.

BD: I'm not sure there's as much speed as you'd expect in a renewal of the BC Sprint, and Trinniberg's pace figures put him clearly on the lead--especially with the added blinkers. His best races are just about good enough to win this. Play: $115.

MILE - SS: Obviously loves the course and will be extremely hard to pass on an uncontested early lead. Come and catch me. Play: $200.

BD: Moonlight Cloud might have been better than Excelebration in the Marois, and she's been pointing to this race for a while--it's a pretty short turnaround for the latter. Play: $140.

CLASSIC - Fort Larned has run races quick enough to win this, and I’m willing to give him a pass for third-place finish in the Gold Cup. Reminds me a lot of 2010 Classic hero Blame. Play: $265.

BD: Game On Dude will take some beating, but as crazy as it might sound in his 18th start, I think Mucho Macho Man might have enough improvement left in him to pull off the upset. Play: $95.

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