A Tale of Two Trips

--Brian DiDonato

   In both Grade I races run for 2-year-olds this past Saturday--the Champagne and the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity--one can make the argument that the runner-up was best. One trip was obvious, so much so that it will be blown out of proportion going forward, while the other is far less likely to be picked up on by the wagering public.
   Anyone who saw Honor Code's late run in the Champagne was rightfully impressed (click for chart and video). Devoid of early speed, the hulking son of A.P. Indy was spun very wide into the stretch (seven or eight paths by solid third-place finisher Ride On Curlin) and flew home to fall a neck short of speedy fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Havana. It was a move that just looked so good visually that it only served to add to the hype surrounding a horse who seems to already rest atop many a 2014 Derby list.
   But when all the factors are considered, it might be a performance that looked better to the naked eye than it does when subjected to scrutiny. For starters, Havana worked hard every step of the way, pressing an above-average pace from second, while Honor Code conserved his energy at the back of the pack. It's telling that pacesetter Debt Ceiling finished last, while Grand Arrival, next-closest early, finished second-to-last.
   According to Trakus data, Honor Code covered 20 ft. (~2.4 lengths) more than Havana in the Champagne, but where he covered the extra ground is important. The dark bay didn't come off the rail until he started to approach the stretch. Ground loss at this point in a race is almost never the detriment that some believe it is. In addition to keeping a horse out of trouble and free to lengthen his stride, it allows him to build up additional momentum (I'm certainly no scientist, but it's centrifugal force or something). The wider a horse (or a bike, ice skater, etc.) turns into a straight, the more inertia they'll carry. So while a horse who goes wide into the lane has to cover more ground, they make up for it with the additional forward momentum they generate by a larger arc. Ground loss is definitely a major trip factor at other points of a race, but it is much less of a detriment late on the home turn and into the straight.

Honor Code (outside) falls just short of Havana
NYRA/Coglianese

   Breeders' Futurity runner-up Smarty's Echo, meanwhile, ran very well to be second, all things considered (click for chart and video). The 11-1 shot was fairly close to an extremely fast pace (25 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter), and never found cover. He was three or four wide at best throughout the two-turn contest, and traveled 23 feet more (~2.7 lengths) than the eventual 2 3/4-length winner We Miss Artie, who drafted early before tipping out under a perfect John Velazquez ride. (Interestingly, Horse of the Year Wise Dan went down at 1-2 one race later in the Shadwell 'Turf' Mile with a Smarty's Echo-like ride from Velazquez).
   Smarty's Echo only earned a 65 Beyer Speed Figure in what looks like a mediocre renewal of the Breeders' Futurity, but he did earn an 82 Beyer previously for his Arlington maiden breaker, and figures to offer some value wherever he shows up next. He ran much better on Saturday than he will be given credit for. Honor Code, on the other hand, possesses a world of upside, but everyone sees it. He's certainly good, but will definitely be overbet next time--perhaps so much so that he could be favored over Havana if he shows up at the Breeders' Cup. Horses with Honor Code's profile often end up being money burners, and Honor Code seems like he could be one of those types.

Retired Racehorse Training Project Thoroughbred Makeover and National Symposium: Day One

Combine two days, 26 Makeover horses with three months of post-racetrack training, 26 trainers, a polo team, a hunt club, a pack of foxhounds, a herd of cattle, eventers, show hunters, a rodeo team, a vaulter, a Hall of Fame jockey, dressage riders, natural horsemanship afficionados, barrel racers, the nation's best OTTB show jumper, an enthusiastic crowd of Thoroughbred fanatics, a sunny weekend, one Stud Muffin, one set of equine riot gear, and six hours of top-shelf seminar/round table discussions, and put them all at Pimlico, and you'll get the inaugural Retired Racehorse Training Project's Thoroughbred Makeover and National Symposium. 

Steuart Pittman and the entire RRTP team put together a perfect Thoroughbred weekend, and Pimlico housed the event in style. Over the years, I've been to countless horse expos and clinics; never have I seen an audience quite like the one. It was not your typical mix of casual horse lovers and beginner riders. This weekend's crowd was an educated and enthusiastic group of people, and they were in Baltimore to learn, to share ideas, and to celebrate the mighty Thoroughbred. The Symposium speakers skipped the formalities and went right to the good stuff, and the audience jumped in each day with lively Q&A sessions. We all wanted to talk Thoroughbreds: feeding, training, injuries, marketing, business strategies, hoof care.

Was it as much fun as it sounds like it was? Yes, it was. Actually, it was probably even more fun than you can imagine. If you don't believe me, here are just some of the photos from Day One. Stay tuned for photos of Day Two, and pencil in the weekend on your calendar for 2014. You don't want to miss this.

Extreme Retired Racehorse Makeover Barrel Race: The Rematch

Patti Fiedler with Hapaheart in riot gear

America's Best OTTB Jumper: Arkansas and Hillary Simpson

From Racing to Polo: US Polo Association
 
Nuno Santos with Thane


 Dale Simanton with Drake's Dancer




Heather Carlson with the one... the only... STUD MUFFIN     
Jessica Bortner Harris with Prettyhipphophotty
 
Elissa Ogburn with Governor Jack   
Chris McCarron in the All-Thoroughbred Team Sorting Challenge 

 Daniel Clasing with Mandhubala
Billie Rae Croll with Mandla
Lara Knight with Rob's Rock
Allie Knowles with Lord Darby
Rebecca Bowman with Dinaka
Grantor

 Emily Kocubinski and Victory Money
Robin Hannah with Zatopek  
Erin Sylvester with Rasher

 - Sarah Andrew

Guest Post: Is there a Matriarchal Trend in Racing?

--Mark Cramer
   Orfevre (Jpn) (Stay Gold {Jpn}) came from Japan for the 2012 G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe and defeated most of the best colts and older horses in Europe. But he lost to a filly. He went back to Japan a month later and beat the best colts and older horses in Asia. But he finished second behind another filly. The 5-year-old came back for a second try at the Arc this past Sunday and soundly defeated the best colts and older horses in Europe and elsewhere, but he finished second behind yet another filly: undefeated Criquette Head trainee Treve (Fr) (Motivator {GB}).
   What's happening here at the upper echelon of racing?
   Two races later, the mare Moonlight Cloud (GB) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) won her fourth consecutive race this year--all against the boys--in the G1 Prix de la Foret at 7 furlongs, for trainer Freddie Head, who also took the femme fatale Goldikova (Ire) (Anabaa) to the U.S. for three annual wins versus the boys in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile.

Moonlight Cloud                      Michele MacDonald

   The last three winners of the Arc de Triomphe have been fillies (four of the past six) and we can't say this is exclusively a French phenomenon since the 2011 Arc winner was Danedream (Ger) (Lomitas {GB}), was trained in Germany.
   English horses were nowhere to be seen among the top five finishers, but sixth place (of 17 horses) in the Arc went to Al Kazeem (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}), even though he stumbled at the start after departing from the extreme outside post. However, the best Arc possibility from England may have been The Fugue (GB) (Dansili {GB}), who happens to be a filly as well, and who easily disposed of Al Kazeem and other males in the prestigious G1 Irish Champions S. at Leopardstown a month earlier. Trainer John Gosden reluctantly withdrew The Fugue from the Arc because of the soft going.
   In leaving Orfevre in her wake, Treve had to overcome a terrible trip, racing outside, "nose against the wind," and yet she won by an impressive margin of five lengths.

Treve                                      Michele MacDonald

   Treve was the best, and deserved to win, but I felt a tinge of sorrow for the throngs of Japanese racing fans who came from the other side of the world to root for their beloved duo of Orfevre and Kizuna (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) (who finished a valiant fourth). Japanese horses have been knocking at the door of the Arc for years now. But these fans never give up and they'll be back again and again.
   The Japanese presence provided an exquisite layer of exhilaration to the ambiance at Longchamp. (It might be a good idea for race tracks around the world to import some Japanese fans.)
   Maybe the next time, they will come to the Arc with a filly. That may be their best chance.
  

TDN Guest blog: THE 2013 ARC DE TRIOMPHE: Is there determinism in racing and if so, which one?

by Mark Cramer

The Arc prep races have been run and two inevitable outcomes have distinctly emerged, set for a monumental clash.

On Sunday September 13, the filly Treve (Motivator) crushed her opposition in the Group 1 Prix Vermeille for fillies and mares at the same mile and a half distance and on the same track as the Arc. Following Treve’s third consecutive win in the French Oaks (Prix de Diane) last June, the filly was purchased by Sheikh Joaan Bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar. Madame Christiane Head-Maarek remained the trainer while Thierry Jarnet lost the mount to Lanfranco Dettori. In the Vermeille, Dettori literally drove the filly past the field to a very convincing victory.

 

Qatar has been sponsoring French racing and notably the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for the past several years, and it seemed inevitable that an Arc winner would be sooner rather than later owned by a Qatari. Treve will be supplemented into the Arc for 100,000 Euros.

A broader part of history seems to be siding with a Treve victory in the Arc. After the Paris-Saint-Germaine soccer team was purchased by the Qatar Investment Authority, the team won its first French title since 1994. The Qataris have contributed enormously to French racing and it seems time to reap the most prestigious reward.

The Japanese would beg to differ. They were out in large numbers to watch their stars participate in the other two Arc prep races, the Prix Niel and the Prix Foy, and Japanese horses won both of them. Japanese horses have been knocking at the Arc door for more than a decade, with several of near-wins along the way.

Last year’s unfortunate second-place finisher in the Arc, the Japanese colt Orfevre (Stay Gold), toyed with a field of 9 to win the Foy just as convincingly as Treve won the Vermeille, that is, if visual impressions count. The Vermeille is a real Group 1 race while the Foy is a Group II prep for older horses that has not produced an Arc winner since 1992. Invariably the final time of the Foy is a few seconds slower than the Vermeille.

This year was no exception, with Orfevre finishing in 2 min 41.47 seconds over a soft-slow course while Treve did 2 min 36.82. However, Orfevre’s supporters will note that he had a slow time in his Prix Foy last year as well, and nearly won the Arc anyway, in spite of racing much of the way on the slower outside of the track. For the 2013 Prix Foy, Orfevre was coming back after a 5 ½ month layoff and we can be assured that he only did what he had to.

Japanese racing fans don’t stop with Orfevre. They also had a winner of the Prix Niel for 3yo colts, in 2 min 37.64 seconds, with Kizuna (Deep Impact). Kizuna has a lot of history in his favor:  in the last 20 years, 8 winners of the Niel have come right back to win the Arc, and several Niel losers have also triumphed in the Arc, a race that has been favoring three year olds for quite some time.

So which inevitable outcome is the most likely? Sitting at the pre-race press conference, I saw that Treve’s trainer, Madame Head, was radiating confidence, as was her entourage.

But standing at the walking ring before each race, the presence of Japanese fans (they may be the most fervent racing fans in the world), told a different story. You could even see a banner displayed by the Yutaka Take fan club. (Mr. Take rode Kizuna to victory over a soft surface the colt was not used to, and following a 3 ½ month layoff to boot!)  

No way to get near Take aboard Kizuna as he goes to the winners' circle

So which is it, the Qatar inevitability or the Japanese destiny?

Backers of Novellist (Monsun-Germany) argue for a third destiny. Novellist, winner of the prestigious King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and with 9 wins in 11 starts lifetime is following the path of Danedream, the first German-trained horse to win the Arc. Monsun horses such as Shirocco and Stacelita failed to win the Arc, but Maxios won today’s Prix du Moulin, so the Monsun star is rising at Longchamp!  

In the wake of the Arc trial-day races, British oddsmakers have staked their ground. The best odds you can get on their favorite, Orfevre, is 3/1, so the bookmakers favor the Japan destiny. Treve is 4/1 for the Qatar outcome, Novellist is 5/1 for the German-Monsun scenario, with Kizuna (Japan) following at 7/1.

If predestination existed in racing, what would we say about other Arc prospects (Intello, Galileo-Fabre, 11/1) and The Fugue (Dansili-Gosden, 13/1)? Or: several classy runners-up in the Prix Niel including the close-up second finisher Ruler of the World (Galileo-O’Brien)?

Take a look at last year’s Arc heartbreak for Orfevre, who seemed to have the race won.

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4kluttGunQc

One thing for sure: if a Japanese horse does not win the Arc this year, Japanese race fans will not give up.

As for Treve, her only obstacle is that the Vermeille is a Group 1 and is a goal in itself.  It is not a prep race like the other two.  Therefore horses must work harder to win the Vermeille - and unless they're a Zarkava-like superhorse, they cannot win the Vermeille and still be fresh enough to take the Arc three weeks later. Treve has never raced with only three weeks in between.

 

 

 

Saturday Two-year-old Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato


There are quite a few interesting 2-year-old stakes to be run this Saturday, and with Showdown at the Spa withdrawals setting in, I thought it would be good to give a few opinions. Here goes. . . listed in order of strongest opinion to weakest.

Churchill Downs Race 7 - GIII Iroquois - There's a lot of hype surrounding Ride On Curlin, and though he may prove that good, I'm not sure that what seem like key races that he comes out of were as strong as they look. Plus now he'll be asked to stretch out three furlongs with other pace present. I really like Honorable Judge. Though his wide run when romping first out over one mile at Parx Aug. 11 probably looks a little better than it should because of how frequently that track has a dead rail, he did it the right way from off a slow pace and looks like he'll run all day. The last time trainer Butch Reid shipped to Churchill was with Honorable Judge's full-brother Afleet Again in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Marathon, and that runner went ahead and blew up the tote at 41-1. Afleet Again had previously finished second in the 2010 Whirlaway and took that year's GIII Withers S. at 24-1, so Reid has a pretty solid ROI when shipping away from him Pennsylvania base. Since a two-turn, 1 1/16-mile race for two years olds this time of year offers a major stamina test, I'll take the runner who clearly won't mind any amount of real estate thrown at him. I'll also get extra greedy and try to get Ride on Curlin out of the exacta with Tapiture, runner-up to GI Hopeful winner Strong Mandate on debut; and the Dale Romans-trained duo of Cleburne and Cee 'n O, who both impressed me visually in their respective maiden breakers.

Arlington Race 9 - Arlington-Washington Lassie - Like most 2-year-old races this time of year, solving this race seems to hinge on determining which speedy maiden breakers can switch off and carry their speed over more ground. I'm most interested in Istanford, who is the lone winner at this (approximate) distance thanks to a five-length front-running romp at about one mile on the turf here Aug. 18. Though she set a quick opening quarter of :23.50, the Mike Stidham trainee was able to slow things down for the middle part of the race before showing off a powerful stride in the lane. Those who chased her finished far back, but I'm not expecting Istanford to be up on the pace with a number of sprint stretch-outs signed on here. Look for her to settle early and try to mow them down. While she might go favored, I can't dismiss Maria Maria, whose field-best 81 Beyer Speed Figure was earned over seven furlongs here back on July 19. The extra time between races should alleviate any chance of regression and, though the bottom of her pedigree contains a lot of sprinters, she is by Curlin so an additional furlong should be within her scope. The Colonel Johns figure to appreciate more ground, so I'll also toss in Sweetsoutherndame, who was second behind a slow pace in the Ontario Debutante last out Aug. 10.

Arlington Race 7 - GIII Arlington-Washington Futurity - Whyruawesome may be a bit obvious off his super-impressive troubled-trip debut, but I'm hoping his under-the-radar connections keep the price inflated. Pinched back to last in his seven-panel unveiling here Aug. 16, the 17-1 shot dragged his way into contention and reeled in a very loose leader with relative ease in the stretch despite lugging in badly. Whyruawesome was far off a very quick opening quarter, but the eventual runner-up still enjoyed an easier trip--he tracked in second before inheriting a loose lead when the early pacesetter blew the turn. Even though he cost himself several lengths by being extremely green in the stretch, Whyruawesome covered his final furlong in :12.74 compared to :13.43 for the next two finishers. The drawbacks are obvious: he clearly isn't the most mentally mature 2-year-old considering the way he behaved last time despite blinkers and having already been gelded, and it is a short turnaround from his debut. But something like 4-1 or 5-1 on probably the most most talented runner in the race is worth the gamble.

Churchill Downs Race 6 - GII Pocahontas - She doesn't look fast enough on paper, but I think it's pretty interesting that Steve Asmussen has opted to run Nevada Deputy here. She likely would have been a short price and tough to beat in the Happy Ticket S. at Louisiana Downs off her nightmare trip in that venue's Donnie Wilhite Memorial S. last time, but instead he goes for dirt and much deeper waters. At a big price, she seems worth a flyer.

Louisiana Downs Race 8 - Happy Ticket S. - Multi-millioniare sprinter Benny the Bull doesn't exactly strike me as a promising sire of turf routers, but Love Bullet is out of a Stormy Atlantic mare and has some other things going for her off a sharp debut tally sprinting over this main track. I really liked the way she got over the synthetic track once she switched leads before selling for $20,000 at OBSAPR, and her trainer Scotty McNair is three-for-seven with a $6.20 ROI with first-time turfers over the past five years according to DRF Formulator. Perhaps she'll be a pace casualty, but I definitely wouldn't be surprised if she takes another step forward here.

Guest Blog: GOOD OLD COUNTRY RACETRACK

by Mark Cramer

The Normandy race track Evreux-Navarre is a pleasant hour train ride from the Paris Saint-Lazare station. They’ve been racing at Evreux since 1905 and if you go there today, not much seems to have changed.

Evreux represents hippodrome number 22 in my quest to visit all 250 French race tracks. I had heard that the ambiance at Evreux was truly special and I set out to discover for myself. I took my bicycle with me in the train in order to get to the track from the Evreux station, but also to take in the context by cycling through the emerald green pastures of the Eure region of Haute Normandie, up the rolling hills over country roads that follow the contour of the land, maybe passing one of the many horse farms, medieval abbeys and Renaissance castles.

None of the horses intended for the Arc de Triomphe would be racing on this splendid Sunday afternoon but the maidens and claimers were all beautifully groomed and looked like champions to me.

Rather than rant about how much I love country tracks, let’s just take a look.

 

The race track is a family outing instead of a casino, with pony rides and other children’s activities.

 

The first turn around the mile oval gives you a picture of the rough forested hills of the region.

 

Railbirds clutch their programs, which contain sparse information about the runners, mainly listing their recent finish positions, with no indication of surface, distance, class level, or anything else that handicappers need to know.

But in the walking ring before each race, medieval oral culture kicks in and the track announcer narrates past performances like an old troubadour, chanting more specific information about the recent races as the horses parade in the walking ring.  

I was able to scribble out my own past performances by going on line the night before, entering the free Geny Courses database, and clicking on the names of the entries, riders and trainers.

Thanks to this information, I had two choices in the first race, for gentleman riders and cavalières (“gentlewomen”). The number 5 Charmeuse had by far the best earnings per race and was to be ridden by the leading gentleman rider, Florent Guy (31% wins and 54% in the money). But Charmeuse was the favorite, and his earnings had come with a string of seconds and thirds in maiden races. He looked like a professional maiden.

Meanwhile, the only other rider with high impact stats was Madmoiselle Catherine Rieb-Menard (15% wins, 26% in the money) and her horse, Iconic, was going off at around 11/1. I played Iconic. When Madmoiselle Rieb-Menard felt the pace too slow in the 1 9/16 event, she swept Iconic by the field, took the lead, and never surrendered it. Iconic paid 23.60. Naturally, I was pleased to listen to the extended interview of Miss Rieb-Menard, who had become my new heroine.

Notice the rear of the grandstand in the background of this picture. This is the typical half-timbered style (exposed wood frames) that came from the Middle Ages and then became fashionable once again in Normandy in the 1800s. This grandstand was built 110 years ago and looks and feels as if it hasn’t undergone any changes since.

 

 

 

Looking from the grandstand across the backstretch, a railroad track is carved into the side of the hill, hidden in the brush, with Intercities trains gliding between Paris and Deauville.

 

In the background of the far turn, you can take a glimpse at a typical Normandy church spire in the nearby town of Navarre.

The region is replete with architectural treasures and I have chosen a rare one to finish this visit, an old copper foundry I passed between the race course and the train station in the town of Navarre, called the Usines de Navarre.

With a theatrical track announcer, convivial country atmosphere and authentic homespun architecture, racing at Evreux manages a perfect balance between serenity and exhilaration. Too bad they only get four racing dates per year. But somehow, racing managers have found a way to preserve France’s 250 race courses without resorting to casinos and hype, by realizing that so often less is better and small is beautiful.