The Arc prep races
have been run and two inevitable outcomes have distinctly emerged, set for a
monumental clash.
On Sunday September
13, the filly Treve (Motivator) crushed her opposition in the Group 1 Prix
Vermeille for fillies and mares at the same mile and a half distance and on the
same track as the Arc. Following Treve’s third consecutive win in the French
Oaks (Prix de Diane) last June, the filly was purchased by Sheikh Joaan Bin
Hamad Al Thani of Qatar. Madame Christiane Head-Maarek remained the trainer
while Thierry Jarnet lost the mount to Lanfranco Dettori. In the Vermeille, Dettori
literally drove the filly past the field to a very convincing victory.
Qatar has been
sponsoring French racing and notably the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for the past
several years, and it seemed inevitable that an Arc winner would be sooner
rather than later owned by a Qatari. Treve will be supplemented into the Arc
for 100,000 Euros.
A broader part of
history seems to be siding with a Treve victory in the Arc. After the
Paris-Saint-Germaine soccer team was purchased by the Qatar Investment
Authority, the team won its first French title since 1994. The Qataris have
contributed enormously to French racing and it seems time to reap the most prestigious
reward.
The Japanese would beg
to differ. They were out in large numbers to watch their stars participate in
the other two Arc prep races, the Prix Niel and the Prix Foy, and Japanese
horses won both of them. Japanese horses have been knocking at the Arc door for
more than a decade, with several of near-wins along the way.
Last year’s
unfortunate second-place finisher in the Arc, the Japanese colt Orfevre (Stay
Gold), toyed with a field of 9 to win the Foy just as convincingly as Treve won
the Vermeille, that is, if visual impressions count. The Vermeille is a real
Group 1 race while the Foy is a Group II prep for older horses that has not
produced an Arc winner since 1992. Invariably the final time of the Foy is a
few seconds slower than the Vermeille.
This year was no
exception, with Orfevre finishing in 2 min 41.47 seconds over a soft-slow
course while Treve did 2 min 36.82. However, Orfevre’s supporters will note that
he had a slow time in his Prix Foy last year as well, and nearly won the Arc
anyway, in spite of racing much of the way on the slower outside of the track. For
the 2013 Prix Foy, Orfevre was coming back after a 5 ½ month layoff and we can
be assured that he only did what he had to.
Japanese racing fans
don’t stop with Orfevre. They also had a winner of the Prix Niel for 3yo colts,
in 2 min 37.64 seconds, with Kizuna (Deep Impact). Kizuna has a lot of history
in his favor: in the last 20 years, 8
winners of the Niel have come right back to win the Arc, and several Niel
losers have also triumphed in the Arc, a race that has been favoring three year
olds for quite some time.
So which inevitable
outcome is the most likely? Sitting at the pre-race press conference, I saw
that Treve’s trainer, Madame Head, was radiating confidence, as was her
entourage.
But standing at the
walking ring before each race, the presence of Japanese fans (they may be the
most fervent racing fans in the world), told a different story. You could even
see a banner displayed by the Yutaka Take fan club. (Mr. Take rode Kizuna to
victory over a soft surface the colt was not used to, and following a 3 ½ month
layoff to boot!)
 |
| No way to get near Take aboard Kizuna as he goes to the winners' circle |
So which is it, the
Qatar inevitability or the Japanese destiny?
Backers of Novellist
(Monsun-Germany) argue for a third destiny. Novellist, winner of the
prestigious King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot and with 9 wins
in 11 starts lifetime is following the path of Danedream, the first German-trained
horse to win the Arc. Monsun horses such as Shirocco and Stacelita failed to
win the Arc, but Maxios won today’s Prix du Moulin, so the Monsun star is
rising at Longchamp!
In the wake of the Arc
trial-day races, British oddsmakers have staked their ground. The best odds you
can get on their favorite, Orfevre, is 3/1, so the bookmakers favor the Japan
destiny. Treve is 4/1 for the Qatar outcome, Novellist is 5/1 for the
German-Monsun scenario, with Kizuna (Japan) following at 7/1.
If predestination existed
in racing, what would we say about other Arc prospects (Intello, Galileo-Fabre,
11/1) and The Fugue (Dansili-Gosden, 13/1)? Or: several classy runners-up in
the Prix Niel including the close-up second finisher Ruler of the World
(Galileo-O’Brien)?
Take a look at last
year’s Arc heartbreak for Orfevre, who seemed to have the race won.
One thing for sure: if
a Japanese horse does not win the Arc this year, Japanese race fans will not
give up.
As for Treve, her only
obstacle is that the Vermeille is a Group 1 and is a goal in itself. It
is not a prep race like the other two. Therefore horses must work
harder to win the Vermeille - and unless they're a Zarkava-like superhorse,
they cannot win the Vermeille and still be fresh enough to take the Arc three
weeks later. Treve has never raced with only three weeks in between.
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