Sophomore Spotlight: In-Depth Kentucky Oaks Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

This year's GI Kentucky Oaks came up very evenly matched, and looks to be a great betting race. See below for my take on each runner.

1 - On Fire Baby (Smoke Glacken) - It's hard to argue with what she has done so far in her career... Had pretty easy trips in her two local wins last year, but has proven more than just dressed up this term... She covered a ton of ground when third against the boys in the Smarty Jones S., and overcame another wide trip to annex the GIII Honeybee S. last time with a field's-best last out Beyer of 99... Sire Smoke Glacken doesn't inspire great confidence at nine furlongs, but her dam and siblings were all routers, including GII Fantasy S. winner and 2007 Oaks show horse High Heels (E Dubai)... Not concerned about the lack of a recent prep considering the morning reports on her; she's the race's most likely winner.

2 - Grace Hall (Empire Maker) - Not crazy about her figure progression from two to three--ran an 85 Beyer when winning last year's GI Spinaway S., but has only run a 90 and 89 in her two races in 2012... Distance is in her favor, but it's really hard to take favorite's odds on her considering how much lower her Beyers are than some other runners... Playing against.

3 - Summer Applause (Harlan's Holiday) - One of the toughest horses in the race to figure out... Her GIII Rachel Alexandra win was solid--came back fast enough (96) and was not the product of an easy trip... But how did she not get by Believe You Can in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks after those super-fast fractions (first quarter was 21 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale)? The track wasn't speed favoring that day or anything... Will use defensively on some tickets because she fits the profile and will be a big price, but hard to feature her more off of that last race.

4 - Eden's Moon (Malibu Moon) - Figures to be one of many pace casualties in this very speed-laden group... Got an easy lead in the GI Las Virgenes and had no obvious excuses last time when third behind Cal-bred Willa B Awesome in the GI Santa Anita Oaks... The Oaks winner came back to win last Saturday at Hollywood, but barely and with a 73 Beyer against state-breds... Not interested.

5 - Hard Not to Like (Hard Spun) - Has the same last-out figure as Grace Hall, but will be upwards of 10 times the price... The GI Ashland was a merry-go-round type race over a speed-favoring surface, but she managed to run well to be a close second... Showed signs of being a good one last year on the turf, but obviously dirt is the question... Dam Like A Gem (Tactical Cat) won sprinting on the dirt and was stakes-placed at 8 1/2 furlongs on the conventional stuff. Based at Woodbine when they switched over to Polytrack, she was a SW at 10 furlongs on that surface as well as turf... Hard Not to Like has had enough works over the dirt that you'd think they would know how she handles it, so inclined to think it won't be an issue... Trainer Gail Cox boasts an 18% win rate and $2.72 ROI second off the bench, according to DRF Formulator... Main longshot play.

6 - Broadway's Alibi (Vindication) - GII Forward Gal romp seemed slop aided, and she enjoyed a very easy lead in the GIII Comely S. last time... Seems destined to be caught up in the fast pace, and not crazy about how her connections were noncommittal about running here... Playing against.

7 - Sacristy (Pulpit) - Has never gone beyond seven furlongs and feels like she's in here because Peachtree's two big guns aren't... Can't use.

8 - Jemima's Pearl (Distorted Humor) - Thought her U.S. debut at Santa Anita for Simon Callaghan was solid visually despite being aided by a fast pace... You could make the argument that Oaklawn was speed favoring when she was third in the GII Fantasy, and she came home fastest... Worked in company with Bodemeister--while she obviously wasn't going to outwork him, can't be the worst sign in the world that Baffert paired them up... Very interesting mid-price type.

9 - Believe You Can (Proud Citizen) - She ran very valiantly to hold on in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks last time, but she's going to have to deal with another fast pace here with more distance and better competition... Seems she's best when allowed to show speed, but that will prove her undoing.

10 - And Why Not (Street Cry {Ire}) - She really doesn't seem to fit with these on paper--her one even semi-fast race came due to an extra fast pace in the GII Pocahantas... She does have an exceptional pedigree for this, though, and it's interesting that Matz opts to take a shot... Bullet work Apr. 28 says she's doing well... Her morning line price of 15-1 is an underlay, but she should drift from there... Will use her underneath and possibly on top as a back-up simply because she'll be running late if she's on her game.

11 - Karlovy Vary (Dynaformer) - Upset the GI Ashland thanks to a bias, and doesn't seem likely to take to the dirt... Not much to like.

12 - Colonial Empress (Empire Maker) - Can't see her breaking her maiden in this spot...

13 - Amie's Dini (Bandini) - Pace won't do her any favors and On Fire Baby proved much better than her two back in the Honeybee... Was only second in the Fantasy because of how it was run... Passing.

14 - Yara (Put It Back) - Pulled off quite the shocker in the GII Davona Dale when besting Grace Hall at 64-1, but came back to earth in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks... That one good race is definitely the exception rather than the rule, so hard to expect anything competitive from her, especially going this far.

AE - Oaks Lily (Badge of Silver) - Incredibly slow. . . Fair odds might be in the 1000s-1.

Verdict: My main uses in the pick 4 and Oaks/Derby Double will be On Fire Baby, Hard Not to Like and Jemima's Pearl... Will use a little Summer Applause and a tiny bit of And Why Not somewhere... Also playing Hard Not to Like at 15-1+, boxing my top three in exactas and playing some sort of trifecta key with my top five.

Guest Post: Fun at Punchestown

--Kelsey Riley

This past weekend I had the pleasure of attending the races at Punchestown, the premier national hunt (jumps) race meet in Ireland. Despite the ominous threat of rain that had persisted in the Emerald Isle all week, I eagerly pulled on my boots and coat and headed out to the water logged course. I was eager to take in my first live jumps meeting, and I was far from disappointed.

Before delving into the story of the Punchestown meet, it is important to note the prominence of national hunt racing in Ireland. While jumps racing in America is a rare commodity and takes a notable backseat to the flat, the opposite is true in Ireland, at least as far as race goers are concerned. In 2011, almost double the amount of people attended a national hunt meet than a flat racing meet. The number of people in attendance at Ireland’s biggest flat racing festivals exceeded regular national hunt meeting crowds by just 2 per cent.

Busy bookies at Punchestown

Prior to attending Punchestown, I struggled to understand this trend. My experience as a spectator of national hunt was limited to the Grand National, and based on that meeting, I was far from impressed: I battled to find enjoyment in watching horses fall over almost every fence, and two breakdowns in one race was too many. I couldn’t understand why these people enjoyed this sector of racing so much. Perhaps it was just an Irish thing.

I headed to Punchestown with the hope of being convinced otherwise, and happily I was. I quickly came to understand why this fixture is so popular over here: with races over two and three miles, spectators have much longer to enjoy the race than they typically do on the flat. Throw in a few obstacles (jumps, ditches, and hills), and the action gets a little more exciting. As one of my Irish colleagues pointed out, national hunt racing has a lot to offer bettors as well. In such long races with so many different dynamics, if a horse has a bad start or is affected in some way, there is great opportunity to turn his fortunes around. If the same thing were to happen in a five furlong sprint on the dirt, it would probably be a different story.

Racing past the stands

The constitution of the national hunt horse predisposes it to drawing a loyal fan base. These horses typically don’t start racing until their later years (there was a ‘juvenile’ race on the card for four-year-olds), which, depending on your opinion, may or may not contribute to longevity and soundness. The average age of the horses on this particular card was about 9 years, and one was 15. And while one may think racing 3-plus miles over jumps may be taxing on these horses, the winners of the first two races on the card were making their second starts at the Punchestown carnival (which is only five days long).

Over the final fence

While some national hunt horses are former flat racers, there is a thoroughbred breeding sector in Ireland devoted to producing jumps horses. Typically, stallions that didn’t earn their keep siring flat horses are reverted to the national hunt ranks. Nonetheless, the G1 AES Champion Hurdle for four-year-olds boasted the progeny of such distinguished stallions as Dalakhani, Montjeu, King’s Best, High Chaparral, and Hurricane Run. The winner, Hisaabaat, was a gelded son of arguably the world’s current hottest sire, Dubawi. Hisaabaat had cost 140,000 Euros as a yearling in Ireland. After recording a win and two placings from six starts on the flat, trainer Dermot Weld reverted his charge to the national hunt realms. After unseating his rider in his first jumps try in December, Hisaabaat has hardly missed a beat, finishing first or second in all six starts since. I guess it goes to show, as in all forms of racing, that anything can happen.

To make a long story short, I quite enjoyed my day out at Punchestown. It also helped that only one horse fell, and it was unscathed. After experiencing some doubts about this sector of the sport, I was quickly converted into a fan.  

    A taste of Punchestown action

-- Kelsey Riley is a second year trainee on the Darley Flying Start program. She will join the TDN staff in July.

Guest Post: Derby Week Dictionary

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

   If you are a veteran of Derby week, i.e. watch morning training either at Churchill or the tape-delayed version on one of the racing networks, or simply keep up with the racing scene, you have heard all these comments and expressions before. These handy dandy simplifying translations are intended to help the uninitiated who may not be properly versed in the vague, dodgy trainer lingo which routinely replaces the everyday English language on the Downs' backstretch. This rephrasing will not be limited to trainer dialogue, though that is clearly the meat and potatoes of this perplexing double-talk. Can't quite understand the mysterious handicapper slang? It's all explained right here in this easy (ya, right) to understand, all-encompassing, gibberish made easy for the rookie Derby-follower.

Let's begin with the Trainish-English dictionary, shall we?

"He went super!" - Stock answer when pressed for a comment shortly after said trainer's Derby runner(s) just finished a morning workout. Never mind that unless the trainer witnessed the work from the 3rd floor of the grandstand, he likely failed to see three-quarters of it thanks to the jungle of corporate tents, etc. in the Churchill infield. This stock answer covers 5/8 works timed anywhere from :58.00 to 1:03 (and change) and 3/4 works between 1:11 and 1:15. Any reporter foolish enough to ask a question regarding a work on either side of these parameters will immediately be escorted from the grounds.

"He loves this track!" - The trainer's horse may have only just jogged a mile after arriving on the grounds the previous night, but hey, why not put an immediate positive spin on one day's worth of light training? Any trainer quoted as saying his charge "didn't handle the surface" (wet tracks excluded) will be promptly examined by trackside medics and, if deemed fit, whisked away to join the unnaturally honest, trainer/racing network analyst Tom Amoss on set.

"I ran a short horse." - He could be, but no, he's not referring to his horse's physical stature! This trainer is, in essence, taking one for the team--claiming he failed to have his horse fit enough for a race in which he was beaten double-digit lengths. Yes, the nine published workouts in the Daily Racing Form would seem to refute his claim, but let's not admit at this late stage that perhaps his colt's Derby should in fact be the Derby Trial the previous Saturday.

"We just decided to give him an extra day off." - If ever you hear these words muttered during Derby week, just put a big, red slash through that horse's name in your DRF. It really doesn't matter what the trainer sugar-coats that comment with once those words are spoken. In the crucial week leading up to the Derby, where there's smoke, there is fire. In this case, a raging inferno!

"He popped a quarter crack last week, but our farrier patched it and it's a non-issue now." - ISSUE!!! During Derby week, the Churchill surface is harder than quantum physics! There is no way that foot won't be pinching him significantly in the race as well as the training days leading up to it. Get that red marker out...

To be fair (just this once), these poor conditioners are asked the same ten silly questions over and over again by a mostly uninformed Derby media. It's no wonder they cook up certain "stock" answers.

Sophomore Maiden Winners to Watch...

TDN’s Racing Editor Steve Sherack takes a closer look at a pair of recent sophomore maiden winners that could make some noise this summer.

JOHANNES (f, 3, Johannesburg--Born Perfect, by Mr. Prospector) couldn’t have looked any more impressive in her Woodbine unveiling for trainer Reade Baker Apr. 8 (TDN Video).

Drawn on the fence, the $190,000 OBSAPR graduate left the stalls running, and was pressed early through an opening quarter in :21.87. With James McAleney in the irons, the Harlequin Ranches colorbearer began to edge clear on the far turn, opened daylight when briefly shaken up at the head of affairs, and went on to steamroll by an eye-catching 11 1/2 lengths, clocking her final eighth in :11.74. The final time for five furlongs in :56.80 gave the course record of : 56 2/5 a good run for its money. One race earlier on the card, 4-year-old Canadian stakes winner Tree Pose (Old Forrester) covered the same distance in :57.77 in a restricted allowance.

Johannes, bred in Kentucky by Padua Stables LLC, earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort. The half-sister to Devereux (Forestry), MSW & GSP, $319,860, recently returned to the worktab with an easy five-furlong move over the Woodbine training track in 1:05 Apr. 22.

Have you ever seen a Hawthorne maiden winner crack triple digits on the Beyer scale?

Enter THERMAL CAT (c, 3, Tale of the Cat--Miss Thermal Tech {MSP, $356,658}, by Distinctive Pro). The Coffeepot Stables homebred earned a gaudy 102 Beyer rating when airing by 8 1/2 lengths and defeating older horses in his Apr. 11 debut (TDN Video).

Backed as the 2-1 favorite, Thermal Cat poked his head in front through a :22.37 opening quarter, began to shake clear on the far turn, and drew off nicely in the stretch after a couple of cracks from Harry Vega’s whip. The half-brother to the stakes-winning Feeling Fancy (Sky Mesa) stopped the timer for six furlongs in 1:11.36.

Thermal Cat’s maiden win immediately places him in elite company amongst his fellow crop of 3-year-olds on the DRF Beyer Speed Figure Leaderboard.

His figure of 102 locks him in a three-way tie for fourth on the Sophomore Leaderboard with GISW Creative Cause and MGSW Secret Circle. He trails only the likely Derby favorite in Bodemeister (108), the sidelined GIII Holy Bull S. hero Algorithms (105), and the very promising unbeaten Bourbon Courage (103), who lines up in Saturday’s GIII Derby Trial S. at Churchill Downs.

Looks like Wayne Catalano may have another nice one on his hands.

Progress Report: Racing's Response to the Internet Poker Shutdown One Year Later

--Brian DiDonato

   While, as a serious horseplayer, I obviously agreed with the general sentiment of Bill Finley's piece in Wednesday's TDN calling for lower take-out, it is not accurate to say that slots players are given a fairer chance than horseplayers simply because the house edge on slots is lower than the take-out on racing wagers. It is true that one wager on a slot machine has a higher expected return than one random horse wager, but the difference is that individual slots players are subjecting themselves to a game that is mathematically determined to be unbeatable in the long run no matter what while the financial fate of the individual horseplayer is not so rigidly bleak. The house edge on slot machines and table games is derived from the discounted return one receives on a winning wager versus fair value for that outcome. To simplify things, when I hit 7-7-7 on a slot machine, the pay-out I receive does not accurately reflect the likelihood of that outcome--it pays less than it should. That's how the house makes its money. So, using Bill's figure of a 9% house edge at Chester, the only possible result of playing slots in the (true) long run is a loss of 9%.
   Even though the take-out on win wagers in horse races is almost double that of slot machines (and higher for exotic wagers, which Steve Crist would very compellingly argue is actually lower because of the number of horses involved), the pari-mutuel system does not mathematically predetermine inevitable losses. We wager amongst ourselves, rather than against the house, so there are bound to be winners and losers. And since odds are determined inexactly by human evaluation, there exists the potential for something that can never, ever exist in a slots parlor: an overlay or market inefficiency. So, while someone betting completely at random on races will lose more than he would have playing the slots, he is not resigned to that outcome if he chooses instead to attempt to handicap and seek out positive expectation wagering opportunities.
   Bill also argues that winning at the races under the current take-out structure is impossible and that "The only players that have so much as a prayer are the whales getting huge rebates," but I can say with 100% certainty from personal experience over a very large sample size that that is not the case. The best players will be more than 16 or 20% better than the average player. Lower take-out would allow more players to be winners, and would obviously produce a more appealing wagering product, but even without any adjustments to take-out, horse racing should be much more mathematically enticing to the right type of person than slots or other casino games. It just needs to be presented correctly.
   Racing is a great product, much better than we in the industry give it credit for much of the time, but the problem lies in racing's complete ineptitude at locating the right demographics to which it would appeal and marketing to them effectively. 
   Exactly a year ago, I wrote a piece for this blog entitled, "Can exchange wagering fill the void left by online poker?". It came on the heels of poker's "Black Friday," in which American customers were essentially shut out from online poker by the Department of Justice. I sought to point out the general similarities between those who play the horses and those who play poker, focusing on the younger generation of internet poker players who were now without a place to play. I advocated for a swift introduction of exchange wagering as a way to decrease take-out while further appealing to a tech savvy group of potential customers. My concluding paragraph read:
   This is the time for the racing industry to actively and aggressively seek out a larger percentage of the gaming pie. With the very significant advantage of current online legality over one of its most formidable competitors, racing can generate a new consumer base through the introduction of exchange wagering. Readjustment of the pricing model coupled with innovative marketing strategies can appeal to a large group of young people that are currently without a product to consume. New Jersey and California already have the necessary legislation in place to implement exchange wagering, and tracks, horsemen and potential exchange operators in those and other jurisdictions would be very well-served to work out all the kinks as soon as possible before their competitor for gaming dollars is reborn and fortified through government support.
   Well, since then, only minor steps have been taken by the racing industry to take advantage of poker's temporary shutdown. The Breeders' Cup did enlist well-known poker player Michael Mizrachi to promote its event, which was a positive, albeit very small step in the right direction. And the California Horse Racing Board has begun the arduous process of approving exchange wagering with a tentative goal of having things in place by the time Del Mar opens in July. But little has been done in other states (New Jersey might deserve a little slack due to issues involving the leasing of Monmouth Park), and we might be running out of time.
   Recent news of a potential deal for major site PokerStars to buy out troubled competitor Full Tilt hints that a resolution with the Department of Justice could be on its way, at which point the prospects for legalized online poker in the U.S. could improve. The general consensus among experts is that legalized poker is an inevitability--state and federal governments need new sources of revenue to fund their massive balance sheets, and poker certainly fits that bill. The window for horse racing to make its move is closing.
   Racing seems to be under attack from all sides right now. We've been propped up by slots, but that model is unsustainable and will become less and less viable as people point out what a black hole racetracks can be for casino revenue (unless, of course, we get some of those slots patrons to wander over to our side). We're also under attack due to a very poor public image, which is grounded in some truth, but has been poorly managed by industry officials. Yes, racing has serious issues that must be dealt with, but it's not the un-bettable, fixed, inhumane blood sport that certain factions both inside and outside the game have made it out to be. Racing is still an excellent and appealing product--it's time we ditch all the self-loathing and figure out ways to get noticed by the right types of potential customers. I hope when I look back in another year I'll see more progress to that end than I did this time around.

Renewal Down Under

--Christina Bossinakis

   As some of you may already know, I recently returned from a whirlwind trip to Australia. I traveled down under to experience Australia’s marquee race for 2-year-olds--the G1 Golden Slipper--and to cover one of the top yearling sales in the world, the Inglis Easter Yearling sale in Sydney. The timing for my trip, at least on a personal level, couldn’t have been better. I left the U.S. in the middle of the bitter backlash precipitated by an expose that ran in the New York Times, which was intended to inform the nation on the state of horse racing in the United States. Many in this country have already read the story, and for those who missed it, all I will say is it wasn’t all kittens and bunnies. In fact, it was more of a black eye. To be clear, I do not intend to get into the truths or misrepresentations in the story, but more to offer a look at the other side of the game, offered from my own perspective.

   Not long after my arrival in Australia, I was able to venture out to Rosehill for the Golden Slipper, and what a breath of fresh air it was. The press leading up to the day was remarkable (akin to the final few weeks before the Kentucky Derby) and the local folk certainly knew what the fuss was all about. On Slipper day itself, whether one was situated in one of the suites, dining rooms or among the general public, everybody was sporting their finest (the Aussies are HUGE on the race day fashion shows!) and ready to enjoy a great day of racing. I met many people that day, and the excitement was contagious.
   The buzz spilled over to the Inglis Easter sale, which was staged later that week. In the days preceding the sale, the great nation was ablaze over the half-sister to local sensation Black Caviar, who was going to be offered up for sale during Wednesday’s second session. One of the local racing networks TVN (akin to HRTV in the U.S.) televised the sale. Apparently they have done this for several years, and I was told it has been very popular with viewers. (A side note: I know we featured a domestic sale on television at least once before, and if I remember correctly, it wasn't very popular, but maybe it's something we might consider revisiting. However, this time around, we could collaborate with our Australian friends who, quite honestly, offer a truly refined product.) In the days surrounding the actual sale of the A$2.6-million filly by Redoute’s Choice (BC3 Thoroughbreds ultimately bought the fairest damsel of them all), you couldn’t pick up a newspaper or turn on the TV without catching a snippet about the yearling. Welcome to Australia.

TDN's Christina Bossinakis & Peter Moody

   Without a doubt, many of the biggest operations in the world were represented at Inglis again this year, including Black Caviar’s trainer Peter Moody (who bought the final session's topper; a A$1.2 million Street Cry half-brother to Makybe Diva); Coolmore’s Demi O’Byrne; BBA’s Adrian Nichol (who is appropriately called the ‘King’ down there. He signed the ticket for a A$650K Fastnet Rock filly on Day 1); Shadwell’s Angus Gold; members of the Yoshida family...the list is endless.

    During my time in Oz--earlier this January for the Magic Millions sale and this time around for Inglis Easter--I had the pleasure of getting to know John Messara, the master of Arrowfield Stud and the new Chairman of Racing New South Wales. For those who have never met the man, he is a veritable force of nature and, without a doubt, would be a valuable asset to any racing jurisdiction anywhere in the world. During one of our friendly chats, I mentioned that we needed to get him over to the U.S. for a visit, sprinkled with some sharing of ideas. His response was, “You have everything in America that we have, and more.” I deeply considered his statement for several days and I finally came to the realization, “Do we?” 
   We have supposedly set the standard for many countries to follow, be it in breeding, racing, sales or administration, yet all too often we seem to get caught up in power struggles, which usually only serve to undermine the thing we should be fighting for collectively--the racing industry and its well being.
   Yes, it’s true, my visit to Australia coincided with the prestigious Sydney Carnival, which provided the very best that particular market has to offer. I’m not naive enough to believe other racing jurisdictions don’t endure their fair share of problems and don’t have significant obstacles to overcome. However, one thing that is abundantly clear is that Australians love to punt, they rarely miss the chance to get all dolled up to go racing, and they enthusiastically support their racing stars. With a few exceptions, they seem to get it.

Day 3 Topper - $1.2 million Street Cry colt

   In fact, Australians have several things to feel positive about over the course of the next few years, including a court ruling giving Racing NSW a significant shot in the arm--to the tune of A$120 million--which will result in substantial purse increases in the state in the near future. Additionally, plans are in the works for the renovation and development of several Australian Turf Club racecourses, most notably Randwick in Sydney. Yes, the world economy is still shaky, but Australians certainly have reason to be upbeat and you can feel the excitement when you speak to many of them.
   While the Inglis sale, and the Australian racing industry itself, have not been immune to the effects of the world economy, they people continue to have hope for the future and appear to look forward to it.
   What about the U.S.? Do we have reason to look favorably to our future? Are we capable of stepping back and finding real solutions to our problems or are we doomed to throw the baby out with the bath water?
   Of late, many have been quick to outline all the things wrong with our industry, but the truth is, we have several things going for us. The U.S. still is the source of one of the most respected, and sought after, commodity worldwide; North American bloodlines. And no matter which racing and breeding jurisdiction you may operate in, the majority of knowledgable horsemen and women place a significant value on our stock and its foundation. Additionally, several racecourses around the world are in some way modeled after North American tracks as are the principals used to operate them. Also, in something that is near and dear to my heart, we have made significant advances in equine retraining for careers following racing and retiremement. Yeah, maybe we're not 'there' yet, but we have certainly been moving in the right direction over the past few years and, I can confidently say, we surpass most other major racing jurisdictions worldwide.
   Finally, from my perspective, the high level of respect I was granted during my visit to Oz was not only because that is simply the way of the natives, but it is also due to their high regard for the American racing institution. I guess the question remains, despite all of our shortcomings, if so many others are able to recognize our value, why can’t we?

Guest Post: Why I Love Australian Racing

This Saturday, Australian two-year-old superstar Pierro will attempt to make history when he starts in the G1 Champagne Stakes at Royal Randwick in Sydney. The Champagne is the third leg of Australia’s two-year-old Triple Crown, and Pierro enters the 1600 metre contest off decisive wins in the first two races: the Golden Slipper on April 7, and the Sires Produce Stakes a week later.

Pierro represents everything I love about Australian racing. Trained by celebrity conditioner Gai Waterhouse, Pierro has danced every dance and dismantled all challengers this campaign. Declared “the 2012 Slipper winner” by Waterhouse after his debut victory last October, Pierro was put away for a few months to rest up for a bold autumn campaign in Sydney. The Darley-bred son of Australian champion sire and first-season American shuttler Lonhro opened 2012 with a win in the G2 Silver Slipper Stakes over 1100m at Rosehill. His next task was the G2 Todman Stakes over 1200m again at Rosehill, an important prep for the $4 million Golden Slipper, the world’s richest two-year-old race at the same venue and distance two weeks later. Pierro dug deep to take both contests, beating favoured Samaready, the leading Victoria-based two-year-old, in the Golden Slipper. Wheeling back off a week’s rest, Pierro toyed with the fresher All Too Hard, the previously unbeaten half-brother to Black Caviar, in the Sires Produce.

Pierro wins the Golden Slipper

In short, Pierro’s campaign has been defined by fierce contests off short periods of rest. While this may seem remarkable to foreign audiences, in Australia it is the norm in premier racing: the country’s leading group one performers will routinely race once every week or two weeks during the country’s top spring and autumn carnivals. In America, we yearn for the times when horses competed more than once a month, with the best going head-to-head race after race. In Australia, this is still happening, usually every Saturday in Sydney or Melbourne.

This realization would lead one to think that Australian horses are tougher than others. Maybe this is true. I personally believe it’s the way they’re managed that leads to their resilience. During a four-month stint in Australia last fall (their spring), I was very fortunate to spend a month working in the stables of one of the perennial leading trainers in Melbourne, Victoria. Aside from the lack of race day medication (which everyone already knows about) in Australia, there were a few things that stood out to me in this particular yard: first of all, no horses wore stable bandages unless they had a significant problem (and in my time there, none did).

In addition to their morning exercise, every horse was taken out in the afternoon to walk and swim 

(swimming is a big part of the Australian training climate in general). I believe this contributed greatly to mental soundness as well as physical soundness. There was not one horse of about 40 in the yard that I could not lead without a bit or nose chain, or leave standing quietly in cross ties during grooming. This included colts, geldings and fillies of all ages. In addition, there was not one horse in the yard that would lay back its ears or bite when a human passed the stall.

The final major contributing factor to the constitution of the Australian race horse is, I believe, their spelling regime. “Spelling” refers to the routine of putting the horses out to paddock for up to a few weeks as a break from training. So while the horses are raced hard, they are also spelled frequently. Depending on the mindset of the horse, it may be every few starts, or every few months. Generally, when a horse seems to be falling off form or developing a sour attitude, the trainer will send it out for a spell. This means up to a few weeks in a paddock on a farm, just “being a horse”.

It is important to note that, unlike in Europe where horses train on vast countryside gallops on a program that values stamina over speed, the Australian training program is more similar to America than anywhere else. Like in America, Australian’s train at racetracks in big cities, and they value fast times and precocity in their racehorses. Although Australia seems a world away, their training and racing environment are actually quite similar to those in America.

In addition to this time at the racetrack, I also spent a few weeks working on Darley's Woodlands Farm, where Pierro was born. In Australia, mares are foaled outside (their tepid climate gives them that luxury), and if both are healthy, it is possible that the foal will never see a stable until it is a weanling or yearling. While this can have both positive and negative implications, the upside is that all that time spent outside in its natural environment must be healthy for the foal.

When he lines up for the Champagne on Saturday, Pierro will attempt to become the sixth horse to win the Triple Crown. He has history on his side. It was last won by the Waterhouse-trained Dance Hero in 2004, and that conditioner nearly won it again in 2008 with Sebring before a narrow loss in the Champagne. The other winners are Baguette (1970), Luskin Star (1977), Tierce (1991), and Burst (1992).

For me, the best thing about Pierro is that there may be no limit to how good he is. It is important to note that the dark bay has already outrun his pedigree. As previously stated he is by Lonhro, a multiple G1 winner at up to 2000 metres at 3,4,5, and 6, whose progeny usually don’t get going until their later years. Pierro is out of a mare by Daylami, a stallion who performed well as a two-year-old but excelled later in life at longer distances, and typically sires horses in that mould. It would seem that Pierro was never meant to win, let alone become a champion, over sprint distances at two. If he follows his pedigree pattern and become better with age and distance, who knows how good he could be.

Lonhro's late run earns him a legendary renewal of

the Australia Cup in 2004.

Pierro’s Champagne Stakes is one of four G1 races scheduled for Saturday at the Royal Randwick meeting. The feature race is the 3200m Sydney Cup. Trainer Chris Waller saddles three, including the favoured Permit and last year’s winner, Stand to Gain. Waterhouse will saddle the mare Older Than Time, a stalwart route horse on the Sydney and Melbourne circuits.

The most intriguing race on the card to me is the 2000m Queen Elizabeth Stakes, where top mares More Joyous and Secret Admirer take on Melbourne Cup winner Americain and other top older horses Manighar, Jimmy Choux, and Rangirangdoo. More Joyous has won all three starts this year since March 24, and Manighar is four for five this year, including two wins over Americain. In the G1 All Aged Stakes, star three-year-old filly Atlantic Jewel will take on older males over 1400m.

Add Black Caviar going for her 20^th consecutive win across the country in Adelaide in the G1 Sportingbet Classic at Morphetteville, and you have quite the day’s racing in the land down under. But Australian racing breathes excitement, so what more could you expect?

**

This weekend will be an exciting one for international racing, with additional group ones taking place in Hong Kong, South Africa, and France. In Hong Kong on Sunday, local favourites including California Memory, Irian, Pure Champion, Fay Fay, and Sweet Orange will line up against international contenders like Ireland’s Treasure Beach, France’s Chinchon, and the Mike de Kock trained Viscount Nelson. Across the globe in South Africa, superstar sprinters will take centre stage on a card of four G1 races at Turffontein, highlighted by What a Winter, Val de Ra, and JJ the Jet Plane in the Computerform Sprint. In France, last out Dubai Sheema Classic winner Cirrus des Aigles highlights the G1 Prix Ganay at Longchamp. Those looking to take down his colours could include So You Think, Wigmore Hall, and Reliable Man.

-- Kelsey Riley is a second year trainee on the Darley Flying Start program. She will join the TDN staff in July.