Spa Watch: Closing Weekend

--Brian DiDonato

SATURDAY

Race 1 - Paris Opera S., f+m, 3yo/up, 1mT
   Unbridled Essence (Essence of Dubai) gets a bit of class relief coming off three consecutive Grade III tries against solid groups, including a narrow loss in the Violet S. at Monmouth in May. She was bumped at the break last out in defense of her GIII Matchmaker S. title July 31, and never got uncorked after that over a course that appeared to be favoring speed slightly. The 5-year-old should get some pace to run at here, and will be completely ignored in the wagering--her 10-1 morning line seems on the low side.

Race 2 - MSW, 2yo, 1 1/16mT
   Three horses caught my eye in this very interesting event, but Scandalicious (Giant's Causeway) is the one I'll bet to win, mostly because of his expected price. It's tough to get a read on his debut--he was dead last early in a race completely dominated by a frontrunner, but the Flying Zee colorbearer flew home late in the slop to get up for second with a lowly 47 Beyer Speed Figure (TDN Video). It's very possible that nobody besides the winner did any running and Scandalicious' second was no great accomplishment, but trainer Carlos Martin very rarely has a firster cranked up for his/her best and Scandalicious was up against things from a dynamics standpoint. The $150,000 KEESEP yearling's dam Salty You (Salt Lake) was a Grade I-winning 2-year-old in the slop--both a positive and negative in this case--and she was graded stakes-placed and a multiple winner over the sod. Salty You is a half to a pair of runners with turf black-type, and she hails from the family of European champion Moorestyle (GB). Another intriguing horse is Super Saturday (Any Given Saturday), owned by a savvy partnership of TYB Stable, Jerry Dilger and trainer Mike Trombetta. The grey is out of a turf stakes winner who produced Chopinina (Lear Fan), GSW and GISP on turf; Karra Kul (Strawberry Road {Aus}), SW and GSP on turf; and Despite the Odds (Speightstown), winner of the sloppy GIII Hill Prince S. for Trombetta in 2009. Trombetta is 4-for-8 with a $5.05 ROI over the past five seasons with firsters going long on the grass*. O'Prado Again (El Prado {Ire}) was named for Donegal Racing's superstar Paddy O'Prado and, like his predecessor, his future is clearly on grass. The $350,000 KEESEP yearling is very likely to move up on the surface switch off a debut sixth-place finish sprinting in the slop at Churchill Downs, but demand a square price if considering a win bet--Dale Romans' young turfers, like Paddy O'Prado and GII With Anticipation S. show horse Dullahan (Even The Score), sometimes require several starts before finding their rhythm.

Race 9 - GI Forego S., 3yo/up, 7f
   Rule by Night (Malibu Moon) probably isn't the most likely winner of this race, but he's going to be a major overlay. The Steve Asmussen pupil finished off last year with a monster performance in the Groovy S. at Aqueduct, romping by 9 1/4 lengths while earning a 108 Beyer Speed Figure that seems accurate when compared to what the also rans from that heat ran before and after. Rule by Night had some physical issues over the winter, and didn't make it back to the races until the May 11 Waldoboro S. at Belmont. That was a strangely run race that featured a very loose leader who was overmatched (TDN Video), and Rule by Night's third-place finish to Trappe Shot (Tapit) was better than it looks on paper considering the dynamics. He was subsequently scratched from the GII True North H., and resurfaced to finish a disappointing eighth in the Teddy Drone S. at Monmouth July 31. That performance was too bad to be believed, and may have been due to the way the track played that day (Haskell Day)--it strongly favored horses positioned out wide--he was glued to the rail throughout. Rule by Night worked five furlongs in company with GISW Haynesfield (Speightstown) last week, and Asmussen must like how the colt is doing to bypass Thursday's Island Whirl S. for this spot.

Race 10 - GI Woodward S., 3yo/up, 1 1/8m
   Havre de Grace (Saint Liam) is the type of horse who gets drastically overbet, and her presence will create some overlays on other runners. Flat Out (Flatter) is by far the most likely winner of the Woodward, and he must be used on every ticket. Giant Oak (Giant's Causeway) is the value play, however. The accomplished veteran is no stranger to horseplayers and racing fans--he's pretty good at his best, but needs the proper pace set-up to threaten late. He didn't get his trip last time in the GI Whitney Invitational H.--a race in which it seemed nobody wanted to lead--but the 5-year-old came home quickly on the outside to get up for third. It's not like there are a number of need-the-lead types signed on this time, but Rule (Roman Ruler) and Mambo Meister (King Cugat) should keep things honest enough up front with several others close up in the second flight. With a little more pace, and a fair price guaranteed, its worth taking a flyer and hoping the good Giant Oak shows up.

Race 12 - MSW, 2yo, NYB, 7f
   Down Broadway (Grand Slam), a $30,000 FTNAUG yearling turned $90,000 FTMMAY 2-year-old, closed well to be third in a good state-bred maiden race at Belmont July 14. Beyers for the race came back extremely slow, but the three winners and two runner-ups to return from that event all improved their figures dramatically next out. Down Broadway is faster than his 38 figure would lead you to believe, and he ran on debut like one who might appreciate this extra furlong.

Bonus Pick: GI Del Mar Debutante - Emerald Gold (War Front) was extremely visually impressive breaking her maiden while closing off a slow pace over the track (TDN Video). Her 5-1 morning line seems a bit on the low side, and she should offer good value in the 6-1 to 8-1 range.

SUNDAY


Race 6 - MSW, f, 2yo, 1 1/16mT
   There isn't much to like about Zultanite (El Corredor) based on her debut or her pedigree, but note that trainer David Donk entered her in the P.G. Johnson S. Wednesday before opting to scratch and run here--that's a hint that her connections think pretty highly of her. The dark bay broke slowly and only made up a tiny bit of ground sprinting here Aug. 7 on a track that may have been favoring speed, but it's highly unlikely that she was well-meant for that effort. She was ignored as the 37-1 longest shot on the board, and was looking to become just Donk's second 2-year-old debut winner over the past five years from nearly 70 tries. He has won with six juveniles in their second career starts, including two while switching to grass. Watch to see if Zultanite takes more play here, and pull the trigger if she drifts up to 10-1+.

Race 7 - MSW, f, 2yo, 7f  
   Refining (Malibu Moon) was fourth on debut in one of the hottest maiden races for juvenile fillies to be run here this year. Winner My Miss Aurelia (Smart Strike) came back to win the GII Adirondack S. with a 91 Beyer; show horse Stopshoppingmaria (More Than Ready) romped by 9 3/4 lengths next out with a 101 Beyer; and the three other horses to run back hit the board in subsequent efforts. Refining did some late running in her unveiling after losing contact early, and conditioner Bill Mott's patience with young horses is well-documented. Mott maidens do much better with a start under their belt--he's 27% with 2-year-old maiden second timers in dirt sprints at the Spa over the past five years with a $2.52 ROI. Fellow Vegso homebred Come a Callin (Dixie Union), who broke her maiden on closing day here last year at 6-1 for Mott, was making the same move from 5 1/2 furlongs to seven when she graduated.

Race 10 - GI Spinaway S., f, 2yo, 7f  
   I tried to talk myself off of Vukovar (Forest Wildcat) here, but was unsuccessful. I was very high on her before the GIII Schuyverville S., and she made me feel very smart for about two furlongs before making me feel not-so-smart for the next four. The speed she showed in the first quarter mile of that race was off the charts--the :21.38 clocking was good for a Moss Pace Figure of 100--15 points above par for the level, but it's unclear what happened after that. She stopped so quickly that it seems likely she either displaced or bled, and it was surprising to see her back on the worktab just a week and change after her opening day debacle. I still wouldn't have thought much of her future, but if trainer Eric Guillot sees fit to run her off three sharp-looking works, I'll take a small shot at what is sure to be an astronomical price. Note that Guillot has connected with 44-1, 39-1 and 36-1 winners on this circuit over the past two years. Despite losing the hood, Vukovar should have no problem getting the early advantage here--it's just a question of how long she'll have it for. . .

*All trainer stats courtesy of DRF Formulator.

Spa Watch: Travers Week

--Brian DiDonato

FRIDAY

Race 9 - GII Bernard Baruch H., 3yo/up, 1 1/8mT
The result of this race will depend almost completely on the pace scenario--which is very muddled. If favored Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic) is allowed to get loose, he'll win--he's just too good for his opponents without early pressure. But if the deserving chalk is pestered, it'll be a wide open affair late. While there are no other confirmed frontrunners in the Baruch (like there was last time when speedy Get Serious {City Zip} hounded Get Stormy into a third-place finish in the June 12 GIII Monmouth S.), there are a number of stalker/presser types who could keep things honest up front if their pilots realize they can't allow Get Stormy to waltz along on the lead. This race, therefore, is one to be played with conflicting race shapes in mind. Get Stormy is a must-use in vertical wagers (Pk3s/4s), but one should also include other runners whose chances of winning depend on a drastically different pace scenario than what will benefit the favorite. Under the pace collapse possibility, Paris Vegas (Maria's Mon), the longest shot on the morning line at 30-1, has a live look. A minor stakes winner in France last winter, Paris Vegas showed flashes of ability at varying distances and surfaces upon his arrival in the U.S., but only tried the grass once while under the care of Fabrice Chappet. That one turf attempt came when he was sixth of six in last year's GII Hall of Fame S. here while rank and unrate-able. The grey was privately purchased and turned over to astute horseman Tom Voss this spring, and after a very poor effort on the dirt at Pimlico in May, he has shown new life returning to the sod. The 4-year-old was a late-running second with trouble in a 7 1/2-furlong allowance at Delaware in June, and was the horse most victimized by a laughably run, merry-go-round renewal of the GII Fourstardave H. July 31 (TDN Video). Paris Vegas was in last place early behind a half in :50.49, and was pinned inside when trying to rally. He never found a seam, ducking in at one point and brushing with another rival before finishing sixth of seven. His finish was deceptively strong, however, and he covered the final five sixtheenths in :28.39--a fifth of a second faster than anyone else in the field. Paris Vegas still might not be good enough, and he might not get the set-up he needs, but he'll offer exceptional value on top and underneath.

Race 10 - $35K CLM, N2L, f/m, 3yo/up, 1mT
Demure Halo (Quiet American) will return to turf first off the claim for Mike Maker, and she has deceptively strong back class. The bay began her career last year at two with a fourth and two thirds over the lawn in Kentucky, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths by subsequent MGSW Kathmanblu (Bluegrass Cat) July 17 and two lengths by GII Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf fourth-place finisher Forest Legend (Forest Camp) Aug. 15 at Ellis. Neversaidiwassweet (Eurosilver), the sixth-place finisher from that Aug. 15 heat, would go on to score in the GIII Miesque S. over the Hollywood lawn that November. Demure Halo finished off her juvenile season with a sixth-place finish in a tough Polytrack route at Keeneland, and returned for trainer Eddie Kenneally to break her maiden sprinting on the main track at Churchill Downs June 26 for a $30K tag. Maker and Ken and Sarah Ramsey picked up the sophomore for $25K off a fifth-place run sprinting in the mud here Aug. 8. Her conditioner sports exceptional stats first off the claim--he's 31% with a $2.07 ROI over the past five years overall, and has connected at a 38% clip with a $3.47 ROI when switching his new acquisitions from dirt to turf. Tapaway (Tapit) broke his maiden easily at 6-1 despite serious trouble with very similar-looking form and the same trainer angle for the Ramseys last Saturday--a repeat seems much more likely than what Demure Halo's odds will reflect. I'll also use Frontaine (Lemon Drop Kid), who has a chance to go gate to wire.

SATURDAY
Race 2 - MSW, 2yo, 6f
Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher, who unveiled Uncle Mo on this card last year, send out a well-bred coupled entry that could dip down below even money. Neither runner figures to be particularly precocious based on pedigree, however. Fire On Ice (Unbridled's Song) is a very intriguing alternative. The $160,000 FTKJUL yearling RNA'd for $190,000 at KEEAPR after working a quarter in :21 3/5, but the grey never looked completely comfortable over the Polytrack--he was spinning his wheels noticeably (Video)--and will probably prefer the conventional stuff. Fire On Ice is out of an expensive unraced Storm Cat mare who is a half-sister to champion sprinter Squirtle Squirt (Marquetry). He has been working steadily for John Kimmel, who co-owns the grey along with Eli Gindi, and appears to have prepped in company with Vexor (Wildcat Heir), a front-running winner here at second asking Aug. 10. Vexor earned an 80 Beyer for his graduation score--three points above par for this level--and Kimmel has hit the board with two of the four juveniles he has unveiled so far this meet.

Race 9 - GIII Victory Ride S., f, 3yo, 6f
Hot Summer (Malibu Moon), two-for-three at this distance last term, returns off a three-month break and turns back to her preferred one-turn trip. The David Fawkes trainee took the one-mile GIII Comely S. at Aqueduct two back in an effort that was subsequently flattered by her competitors. Runner-up Her Smile (Include) annexed the GI Prioress S. two starts later, and fourth-place finisher R Holiday Mood (Trippi) scored in the Miss Preakness S. over a good field next out. Comely show horse Ava K. (Dixie Union) won a pair of stakes two and three starts later. Hot Summer's last performance--a well-beaten third in the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. after setting a hot pace--looks better after the fact. Both winner Royal Delta (Empire Maker) and runner-up Buster's Ready (More Than Ready) are now Grade I winners. Hot Summer has worked well here in the interim, possesses a good stalking style in a race with some speed, and should be a generous price.

Race 11 - GI King's Bishop S., 3yo, 7f
Obviously, any discussion of this race begins with champion Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie)--if he were back to being the horse he was at two, he'd be very tough to beat in this spot. But there's certainly no guarantee of that, regardless of the bullet drills and positive reports. At 9-5 on the morning line and likely to drop from there, Uncle Mo is a significant underlay, and his presence will inflate the odds on almost every other runner beyond what they should be. A case can be made for everyone in this field, and this might be a spot to hit the "ALL" button on some tickets, but the two biggest overlays appear to be the two closers--Caleb's Posse (Posse) and Cool Blue Red Hot (Harlan's Holiday). Caleb's Posse's romp in the GII Amsterdam S. last time was simply excellent. He closed from dead last behind a slow pace, and earned a 105 Beyer Speed Figure. A repeat of that effort is probably good enough to win this race seven times out of 10, and there's no obvious reason to think Caleb's Posse can't duplicate it. Cool Blue Red Hot will make a similar turnback to the one Caleb's Posse made for the Amsterdam. His fastest race from a Beyer standpoint came in his debut going a one-turn mile at Belmont last October when he dropped a tight one to recent runaway allowance winner Buffum (Bernardini), and he has run well in his last three efforts back at one turn despite poor pace set-ups. He had no chance to win from dead last behind a glacial pace in the GII Dwyer S. last time, and to run third with a 92 Beyer was an accomplishment. It does look like he hung after looping up to join the top two in upper stretch, but he had to work hard just to catch up with them and his kick was probably dulled slightly by the distance. He'll be able to relax and move when ready here with plenty to close into--Cool Blue Red Hot is the longshot play in the King's Bishop.

Race 12 - GI Travers S., 3yo, 1 1/4m
Stay Thirsty (Bernardini)'s last race was a big step forward, and he deserves to be favored off of that effort. His previous races make him only one of a number of contenders, though, and to take too short a price on him would be a mistake. Raison d'Etat (A.P. Indy) was all the rage following a 7 3/4-length maiden-breaking romp at Belmont June 18 in his third  career start, but appears to have fallen out of favor a bit after finishing a well-beaten second at 9-5 in the Curlin S. here July 29. That effort was much better than what he has been given credit for, however. Unhurried behind a pacesetter who had everything his own way, the Juddmonte representative rallied up wide and easily swept by everyone but the leader (TDN Video). Winner Turbo Compressor (Halo's Image) just had to keep going--he had done nothing early to tire himself out--and he and Raison d'Etat both finished up well to earn 101 and 97 Beyer Speed Figures respectively and late Moss Pace Figures that fall into the "very fast late" category. Raison d'Etat was very green in the stretch of the Curlin--he reacted sharply to Eddie Castro's reminders as if he were on a slalom course--and, with only four starts under his belt, he has plenty of room still for improvement and maturity. The 10 furlong distance of the Travers adds to Bill Mott's charge's upside, and the son of A.P. Indy out of seven-time GISW Sightseek has been working a hole in the wind since his last race. Raison d'Etat is similar to GI Alabama S. winner Royal Delta (Empire Maker) in many ways, and Mott just might find himself in the winner's circle for the second consecutive Saturday following a Grade I for 3-year-olds at 1 1/4 miles.

*All trainer stats courtesy of DRF Formulator.

Spa Watch: Week 5

--Brian DiDonato

After a week of mostly uninspiring cards made even less interesting by heavy rain, this weekend's action at Saratoga features full fields of maidens and a short, but very intriguing running of the historic Alabama. See below for analysis of some of those events.

SATURDAY
Race 2 - MSW, 2yo, (S), 1 1/16mT
Unbridled Command (Master Command), a slow-working OBSAPR buy who figured to want more ground than he got in his July 14 Belmont debut, had one of those rough first-out trips that young horses return from much better for the experience. He was green and bounced around several times, but showed a few flashes of interest that hint that there's more to him than meets the eye (TDN Video). The grey has had three steady works over the turf in the interim, and trainer Tom Bush is two-for-three over the past five years with 2-year-old second timers going dirt sprint to turf route, according DRF Formulator.

Race 6 - MSW, 2yo, 7f
If statistical records were kept for owners like they are for trainers, Klaravich Stables and William H. Lawrence would boast some incredible numbers with their 2-year-old firsters. Klaravich/Lawrence debuters win at an inordinate rate and often at nice prices, seemingly regardless of conditioner. They successfully unveiled two babies just last Saturday--Clip the Coupons (Congrats) here last 6.5-1 with Chad Brown and Managed Account (Malibu Moon) at 6.8-1 at Monmouth withTerri Pompay. Pompay also shipped Currency Swap (High Cotton) up to Saratoga for a jaw-dropping, 98 Beyer-earning debut two weeks ago for the Klaravich/Lawrence team at 9.9-1. Dale Romans, a capable enough debut conditioner, sends out News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) here for the connections in question. The $250,000 Timonium grad shows just five published works for this demanding seven-furlong test, but being a 2-year-old sales grad who worked fairly quickly (:10 3/5) means he's probably more seasoned than just the drills would lead one to believe. News Pending is out of a half-sister to Adore The Gold (Formal Gold), who took a maiden seller by 10 3/4 lengths first out at two before annexing a 1 1/16-mile stakes race a month later and the GII Swale S. at seven panels the following winter.

Race 9 - $50K OC, f/m, 3yo/up, 1mT
Mega Dream (Medaglia d'Oro) needs to improve significantly to contend here, but she'll be a very big price and has a chance to pull of the shocker as she tries turf for the first time. An allowance winner over Keeneland's turf-like Polytrack in April, Mega Dream is out of a half-sister to 1991 champion turf horse Tight Spot (His Majesty) as well as GISW Valiant Nature (His Majesty). Another one of Mega Dream's siblings produced MGISW Premium Tap (Pleasant Tap).

Race 10 - GI Alabama S., f, 3yo, 1 1/4m
It's Tricky (Mineshaft) is the one to beat, but an extra furlong does not seem to favor her or Plum Pretty (Medaglia d'Oro) if they take it to each other early here as they did in the nine-furlong CCA Oaks. Of the three alternatives, Royal Delta (Empire Maker) is the most formidable--and offers the best value if her 6-1 morning line proves accurate. Royal Delta was 2-1 last time--double the price of It's Tricky--off her smashing win in the GII Black-eyed Susan S., but will now be abandoned by the wagering public because of one dull race that she probably needed considering the time she missed in her training and her conditioner's well-documented patience. The Palides homebred runs like more distance will suit her, and hails from a good, stout family. She can bounce back in a big way at a price that will reflect the public's fickleness.

SUNDAY
Race 6 - MSW, f, 2yo, 5 1/2fT
Fly to the Sky (Lone Star Sky) didn't do anything particularly encouraging in her sloppy-track debut here July 25, but the Walter New homebred was entered that day for the turf and will get it this time if Mother Nature cooperates. The chestnut is the first foal out of Flying Circle (Pembroke), an accomplished turf sprint stakes winner for these connections who broke her maiden at second asking. Trainer David Fawkes does extremely well in turf sprints in general and all of the relevant subcategories therein, and scored with 9-1 2-year-old second timer Valley of Avoca (Intidab) towards the end of the Belmont meet when putting her on the turf for the first time.

Spa Watch: Week 3, Part 2

--Brian DiDonato

FRIDAY

Race 7 - John's Call S., 1 5/8mT, 3yo/up - This is a very interesting, and evenly matched group with a number of capable longshots. Of the potential price plays, I prefer #7 Sanagas. A German import who was 4-for-5 against what appear to be weak groups in his native land, he resurfaced stateside for Graham Motion in the GIII Arlington H. July 9 (TDN Video). Sanagas made a very odd run that day when finishing 7th, beaten 3 1/2 lengths. Unhurried early, the 5-year-old tried to bear out around the far turn and in upper stretch and was never really asked by Rajiv Maragh after that while making up ground and racing inside of horses in traffic. It's sort of hard to explain, so watch both the pan shot and head-on, but Sanagas never got uncorked and still came home in :23.60--third fastest in the field. "He was lugging in quite badly,” Motion explained to DRF. “The only thing I can think of is when he ran in Europe he went right-handed; maybe [left-handed] was new to him. We put an extension blinker on one side of him and he handled it very well when he worked on the grass." With all his wins coming at beyond the 1 1/4-mile distance he raced last time and his stout German pedigree, if he behaves better, Sanagas has a very good chance to outrun his odds in the marathon.

SATURDAY
Race 8 - De La Rose S., 1mT, f+m, 3yo/up - There appears to be an abundance of speed in this race, which features the stateside debut of Deluxe (Storm Cat), a near-Group 1 winner in France out of the great producer Hasili. I'll use her, but I like #3 Prize Catch a lot more. She's 2-for-2 at this distance with a stakes win going a 1/16 longer, but was stretched out to 1 1/4 miles last time to contest the GII New York S. The pace was absolutely glacial that day, and there wasn't much change in the order of finish late, so Prize Catch was very much up against it, finishing fifth of six. Runner-up Zagora returned to take the GI Diana S. last weekend, and I expect Prize Catch to relish the shorter trip in similar fashion. While she has the type of pedigree (A.P. Indy out of a Seattle Dancer mare) and running style that would lead one to believe that more distance would be to her liking, Prize Catch performs like a closing miler. She's best when far off the pace with something to run at, rather than crawling around closer to a soft pace, and she'll get her preferred trip this time.

Race 9 - GI Test S., 7f, f, 3yo - Turn-backs are deadly in these elongated sprints for 3-year-olds--see Caleb's Posse in Monday's Amsterdam--and #9 Salty Strike fits the winning profile perfectly. The Craig Singer homebred was speedy and precocious enough to win first out going five furlongs last May, and came up just a neck short while pressing a fast pace in the GIII Debutante S. They've tried her twice going 1 1/16 miles this year (most recently last time in the Mother Goose) and she finished well-beaten fourths both times, but her most recent seven-furlong and one-turn mile tries were very good. She took a seven-furlong optional claimer by seven lengths at Churchill in May with an 88 Beyer, besting a runner that was coming out of the GI Ashland, another one who returned to beat older allowance foes with an 89 Beyer and a third who came back to score by 4 3/4 lengths when stretched out. Salty Strike then tried a one-turn mile--which doesn't play much differently than seven furlongs--back under the Twin Spires in the GIII Dogwood S. That race featured the very well-regarded duo of Fantasy of Flight (expensive purchase and impressive debut winner) and Might (full-sister to Blame), and Salty Strike went off at more than 5-1 in that spot, but she made a very visually impressive move to draw off by 3 3/4 lengths. The 92 Beyer Salty Strike earned that day fits right in with what deserving heavy favorite Turbulent Descent has earned on anything but wet dirt, and Salty Strike will be 10 times the price.

Race 10 - GI Whitney H., 1 1/8m, 3yo/up - Wow--what a race. There are a number of ways to go in here, and for Pick 4 purposes, I'll use the four horses who I believe are most capable of turning in monster efforts: Tizway, Flat Out, Rail Trip and Friend Or Foe. I've already been mocked by several of my TDN colleagues for predicting that  Friend Or Foe will be named Horse of the Year, and while I'm a big fan of him and think he's extremely talented, I'm not sure what to make of trainer John Kimmel's attempt at being conservative. Friend Or Foe was originally slated to use a New York-bred stake on July 25th as a springboard to the Woodward at the end of the meet, but he was re-routed here due to a wet track. For that reason, I won't be betting Friend Or Foe to win unless he creeps up from his 8-1 morning line to a price higher than #7 Rail Trip, who I'll bet to win otherwise. Rail Trip had excellent Grade I-caliber California form, but when he ran a clunker after being switched to Rick Dutrow for last year's GI JCGC, it appeared we may never see a return to his best on the East coast. He took an extended vacation after that, and resurfaced in the Easy Goer S. at Belmont in June to dispel any notions that he was finished. The Jay Em Ess colorbearer set an average, but somewhat pressured pace, falling just a head short of Friend Or Foe late. Both runners earned 103 Beyers, but Rail Trip earned a 111 and a 108 in winning efforts out West, so his ceiling here is probably much higher. Dutrow is most effective off of this type of break, and he has been feeding Rail Trip a steady dose of six-furlong drills in preparation for this. Look for him to be fit and ready for a big performance at a square price.

Spa Watch: Week 3

--Brian DiDonato

Another week's in the books at Saratoga, and patterns have started to emerge. Most notable is trainer Todd Pletcher's omnipresence--he has won 14 races from 46 starts through Monday, good for a 30% win rate and a $2.10 ROI*. He's "only" hitting the board 57% of the time, which is a little low considering his win percentage, so it would seem that some of his horses are "all or nothing" types. The problem Pletcher poses for bettors is that he's unavoidable, and seemingly unbeatable at times, but he's almost never going to offer any type wagering value. Breaking down his stats so far this meet by odds ranges might be a useful way to determine which Pletchers to toss and which to embrace:

- At odds-on, Pletcher's 3-for-5 with a $1.81 ROI.
- From even-money to 1.95-1, he's 3-for-6 and in the money 83% with a $2.60 ROI.
- From 2-1 to 5-1 he's 7-for-24 (29%) with a $2.36 ROI.
- From over 5-1 to 10-1 he's 1-for-8 (13%) with a $1.90 ROI. That one winner was Turbo Compressor in the Curlin S.--his odds were what they were because of two very well-regarded and heavily bet entrants, and his win was at least partially aided by a very slow pace.
- Over 10-1 he's 0-for-3 with one fourth-place finish.

It would seem that the main thing to avoid is playing the higher-priced Pletcher runners just because of who their trainer is. For a trainer who is so obviously on everyone's radar and prone to being bet, there's usually a reason when one of his horses goes off at a relatively big price. Those runners are almost always underlays because of people falling for something that's too good to be true. Also, be aware of which Pletcher first timers should be used and which should be played against--he's 4-for-10 ($2.55) and in the in the money 80% of the time with debuting juveniles, but he's 0-for-4, all at relatively high prices, with older firsters. It's very dangerous to leave Pletcher's 2-year-old firsters out of Pick 3s and 4s--I've learned that the hard way--and there may be instances where you can single him due to process of elimination of the rest of the field, but be careful with his older maidens.

Ken McPeek's story has been the opposite so far--he's winless from 17 attempts, but that has been his M.O. at Saratoga in recent memory. McPeek only had one winner at this point in the meet last year, and ended up with 13. He only had 4 winners in 2009, with the first coming Aug. 14, and he had five Saratoga winners in 2008, with the first coming Aug. 13. Expect the McPeek barn to start turning things around soon, and give an extra look to his horses in the coming weeks that already have one start at the meet--they might be primed for improvement and their form will be a bit darkened.

Both the dirt and turf appeared to be playing fair this week--for the most part, pace made the race. . .

Look for two posts this week--I failed to mention a few good betting opportunities on cards that hadn't drawn until last week's post was up, so I'll try to post again on Thursday or Friday.

WEDNESDAY, AUG. 3

Race 2 - MSW - 5f, 2yo - This is probably one of those spots where you're supposed to embrace the logical, low-priced Pletcher runner. You definitely have to use him, but there might be a crazy longshot worth betting to win and playing underneath. #4 Backnbiz debuted at Belmont July 9, and broke very quickly from the rail before two horses to his outside rushed up and dueled for the lead, relegating Backnbiz to third. He steadily faded from there, and the race ended up collapsing, but something tells me that Backnbiz might have flipped his palate or perhaps just quit when he didn't make the lead. He showed too much early interest to be as untalented as he seems on paper, and three regular works in the interim and no precipitous drop into the claiming ranks are both positive signs. There's also a little bit of quality on his dam's side--he's out of a half-sister to three-time GISW (KY Oaks, Spinster, and Las Virgenes) Keeper Hill and Grade II-winning sprinter Golden Gear. The rest of this field looks uninspiring for one reason or another, so I'll take a shot that Backnbiz will be much improved this time at huge odds--at least enough to run second to you-know-who.

Race 3 - MSW - 5 1/2fT, f+m, 3yo/up - An ownership group led by trainer Stan Hough, who's winning at a gaudy 32% clip on the year, privately purchased #7 Skiddles n' Bob off a narrow third-place debut finish going this distance on dirt at Tampa May 1. She broke slowly that day, but was rushed up to take charge while displaying runaway-type speed and opening up about a four-length edge turning for home. She tired just enough late to drop the decision, but not before catching the eye of her savvy soon-to-be conditioner. Skiddles n' Bob resurfaced at Belmont July 3 going six panels, and ran off again, this time fading to last. Expensive Pletcher buy Counterparty won easily from off the pace, but finished off the board at 1-4 in an allowance Monday. That subsequent performance might support the notion that Counterparty enjoyed an advantageous set-up that day, whereas Skiddles n' Bob got the opposite. Show horse Joonbi--a speedster in her own right who wasn't able to make the lead against Skiddles--came back to set another quick pace here July 25, holding on by a nose with a 73 Beyer. Now Skiddles turns back to the distance she ran on debut, tries grass and takes off her blinkers. Of those three changes, the surface switch interests me the least--she gets enough surface versatility from her sire Sharp Humor, but there's not much going on on her dam's side. But the combination of a slight turn back and the loss of blinkers, which should help Skiddles settle, could be a very potent combination. She will still probably make the lead, but if the lightly raced speed demon can figure out how to pace herself better, she might keep right on going late at a big number.

Race 8 - John Morrisey S. - 6 1/2f, NYB, 3yo/up - Ibboyee and Be Bullish--7-5 and 8-5 on the line respectively--figure to take up  a large portion of the market in this race, but both are vulnerable. Ibboyee is probably the best horse in the field, but he's a very deep closer in a paceless event. Be Bullish, on the other hand, is the speed of the speed. He was claimed for $75,000 by George Weaver for Mike Repole off a nice winning effort at Belmont in June, but his connections were taking a big risk claiming a runner off Rick Dutrow. Over the past five seasons, horses claimed away from Dutrow have won at a 16% clip with a $1.16 ROI in their subsequent starts--Dutrow himself has won at a 25% rate with claimers over the same time period. Weaver has only claimed and run back one horse over the past five years--that horse finished 9th here on the 24th at 4-1. Because of his main competitions' deflated odds, third-choice #1 Mineswept with be a significant overlay. He has the speed to keep Be Bullish in check, and should relish the turn-back for red-hot conditioner Rudy Rodriguez. If the other two falter, he'll find it hard to lose this. Mineswept is worthy of win money, and is the perfect "separator" single in Pick 3s and 4s.

THURSDAY, AUG. 4

Race 3 - MSW, 5f, 2yo, f - This is probably the toughest to handicap 2-year-old maiden race we've seen so far this meet. There are a number of question marks, and no easy answers. For instance, what do you do with Alydarla, who did very little running when unveiled in the GIII Schuylerville? Probably use her, I suppose, at her 10-1 morning line, but I wouldn't lean too heavily on her. I am more interested in another longshot. #5 Ribbon Taffy is a member of the first crop of Hard Spun, who has had a very solid start to his stallion career, and she's a half to Barrier Reef, who never quite panned out as some thought he might after taking the Whirlaway S. as an early 3-year-old (he did win two more stakes and was GSP, however). More importantly, though, she's trained by relatively unknown Kentucky-based conditioner John Pucek. Pucek has been deadly in New York this year--he's 3-for-9 with seven in the money finishes, good for a $4.66 ROI. He won a race on Monday at 9-1, and finished third on Saturday at 20-1. He's 0-for-7 with firsters at all tracks over the past five years with two third-place runs, but it'd be foolish to toss anything sent out by the Pucek barn at Saratoga right now, and this runner shows a few sneaky-looking works. Quite frankly, though, it's hard to come up with a solid opinion in this race without seeing the board. Almost every runner in the race has potential, and opening odds often help illuminate things. For real-time observations on things such as tote board clues, follow me on Twitter @PositiveROI.

Race 10 - $25K MCL, 5 1/2fT, 3yo/up - I don't know who trainer W P Higgins is, as this will be his/her first starter in at least the past five years, but #2 Last Hurrah has a lot going for him. The 4-year-old gelded son of good turf influence Kitten's Joy is a half to Finery, who debuted a six-length winner at 6-1 sprinting in the slop at Belmont for Bill Turner in 2003. Finery went on to take two Grade IIIs on the sod in New York, and ran a very credible fifth in the GI E.P. Taylor S. at Woodbine. Both Finery and Last Hurrah are Althea Richards homebreds. Last Hurrah has upbeat works leading up to this, lures Julien Leparoux and faces a very suspect bunch. He won't have to be much to contend here.

*Trainer stats courtesy of DRF Formulator.

Spa Watch: Week 2

--Brian DiDonato

The first five days of the Saratoga meet have certainly lived up to expectations. We've been treated to high-quality, competitive racing, and some jaw-dropping performances from the likes of Winter Memories and J C's Pride. The upcoming action figures to offer more of the same, and there look to be some very good wagering opportunities in the next few days. See below for analysis of some of those spots.

Bias notes: There was clearly somewhat of a speed bias on the turf during the opening days of the meet, but Monday's rain softened up the grass significantly, and no bias was apparent on Wednesday. I would treat both surfaces as fair at this point.

THURSDAY

Race 5 - MSW, 1 1/16mT, f, 2yo -  My original inclination was to use three of the horses who had run before--Tiana, Illegally Blonde and Honey Talk--as experience and race conditioning are significant advantages in maiden routes, but an impressive win by Team Valor's firster State of Play Wednesday has thrown a bit of a monkey wrench into that plan. Trainer Graham Motion had previously been 0-for-16 with juvenile firsters on the grass over the past five years* before unveiling the son of War Front, whose sire was looking for his first 2-year-old debut winner in North America despite an excellent start to his career at stud. Now Motion's still just 1-for-17, but recent trends tend to be more relevant than past ones, and he sends out Vapour Musing here for the same ownership group. State of Play and Vapour Musing have very similar-looking worktabs, and they appear to have worked in company at Fair Hill July 7. It's usually a safe assumption that trainers pair their young horses together based on comparable ability, and if Vapour Musing is as good as State of Play, she should help Motion continue to augment his stats. Note that State of Play opened as a favorite Wednesday before drifting up to 7-2, and look for similar early action on Vapour Musing to signal her own readiness. The remaining firsters in this race still have significant knocks against them, so pair Vapour Musing with the three logical second timers mentioned above in vertical wagers, and give all four consideration in your Pick 3s and 4s.

Race 7 - Quick Call S., 5 1/2fT, 3yo - While speed is a huge asset in shorter turf sprints, this race looks destined to collapse--there are simply too many speedy types for the pace not to get out of hand. The three most intriguing raters offer significant value on the morning line, and here's to hoping that their odds aren't deflated too much by the fairly obvious expected pace scenario. First-time turfer Philippe, at double digit odds, is the value of the Quick Call. His best Beyer figure (88) was earned at Turfway, a venue whose Polytrack plays similarly to turf, and he endured a tough, wide trip before fading last time in the Chick Lang S. at Pimlico. The Jim Baker trainee appears to have worked very well since, and he has the pedigree to take to this trip. Philippe's half-brother T.D. Vance (Rahy), winner of the GII Hall of Fame S. routing over the Spa lawn in 2005, also took the Troy S. at this distance here two years later. Another dangerous late runner is Fastest Magician, who upended the A Gift S. at Belmont in his turf debut in May. While the Fipke homebred did save ground that day, he also dealt with some minor traffic trouble, and showed a very nice late kick, good trip or not. He turns back to a more suitable distance off a sixth in the GIII Hill Prince S. Great Mills had carried his speed over a route of ground before, but he faded from first to a distant last in the Oliver S. over yielding ground last time as the chalk at Indiana Downs. He is two-for-two over surface and distance, and has proven capable of rating at this shorter trip. Philippe's odds warrant a win wager, and the aforementioned trio could be used in exactas and the Pick 4.

Race 9 - Alw, N1X, 1 1/8m, f+m, 3yo/up - The hype has been plentiful for Kinda Spicy, who took her debut at Belmont by 6 3/4 lengths with an 82 Beyer for Tom Albertrani, whose numbers with firsters have dropped in recent years. The Darley homebred had a perfect trip that day behind three dueling rivals, however, and the field she beat was decidedly mediocre. She can still win, but will be terribly overbet. Authenticity, on the other hand, is much more talented than she looks on paper. The late-on-the-scene 4-year-old overcame a very slow start at a mile on debut at Churchill last month to be a decent fourth while racing greenly, and her maiden breaker last time must be seen to be appreciated (TDN Video). Off slow again behind a glacial pace while stretching out half a furlong, the $250,000 KEESEP yearling swung seven wide when asked and ran down a pacesetter who had shaken free at the top of the lane to be well-clear of the rest of the field. It's not as if the runner-up Empress of Gold was slowing down (despite some lead change issues)--she got her final 5/16 in :29.87 to Authenticity's :29.30. Those look like come-home times in a turf race, not a dirt race. The third-place finisher, a next-out winner at Ellis, came home a full second slower than Empress of Gold. Because of the slow early fractions, Authenticity's performance looks mediocre on paper--she only earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure--but she ran significantly better than that figure would indicate. A little more pace and a little more ground this time make her extremely dangerous at a square price.

FRIDAY

Race 2 - MSW, 1 3/16mT, 3yo/up - D'marin, a stablemate of the aforementioned Philippe, took to the turf, as many progeny of More Than Ready do, in his fourth career effort at Churchill Downs July 1. He was a non-threatening third from well off the pace, but could have been much closer at the finish with a better-timed ride and more efficient lead changes. He had a tough time maintaining a straight course when mounting his wide bid, and appeared dissuaded by Calvin Borel's persistent reminders, but D'Marin still covered his final quarter in the eight-furlong contest in :23.85--more than a full-second faster than the winner and two-fifths of a second faster than the runner-up. He's probably bred best for a slightly shorter trip, but another step forward could be all D'marin needs to earn his diploma at somewhere around 10-1.

Race 7 - Curlin S., 1 1/8m, 3yo - This race isn't so much attractive from a wagering standpoint based on the merits of longshots, but more on the potential vulnerability of the two favorites. Regally bred Bold Warrior has done nothing wrong so far in his career. He boasts a 3-2-1-0 record with a pair of open-length victories and relatively high speed figures, and based on blood alone figures to run as far as he's asked to. He has shown speed going short, however, and plenty of horses matching his description end up ultimately being better sprinters. Hall of Famer Allen Jerkens is just 1-for-23 over the past five years going sprint to first time route on dirt, and that one winner earned her victory in a three-horse race. Raison d'Etat, the first foal to race out of Sightseek, turned heads with a 7 3/4-length romp at Belmont June 18 in his third start. The runner-up from that heat, however, came back to be beaten 22 3/4 lengths as the 3-4 chalk with no apparent excuse. Of the remaining runners (Will's Wildcat is expected to scratch and run instead in the Jim Dandy), Golden Gulch offers the best value relative to his merits. Now two-for-two routing, the Windmill Manor Farm homebred has a win at this distance and a steady Beyer progression in each of his four starts. The horse who finished third behind him last time, another Mott/Juddmonte representative like Raison d'Etat, returned to take an allowance at Ellis by 6 3/4 lengths with a 92 Beyer. He doesn't have the flash of a couple of his competitors, but Golden Gulch is a dependable alternative who can land in the winner's circle somewhat by default.

SATURDAY

Race 6 - MSW, 1 1/16mT, 2yo - Master Achievement didn't do much running in his sloppy, off-the-turf debut sprinting at Belmont, but the chestnut never looked comfortable over the wet surface. His trainer David Fawkes does very well with second timers trying the turf for the first time--he's 6-for-29 (21%) with a $3.60 ROI over the past five years. The Florida-based conditioner had a string at Belmont this spring and three of his runners there fit the criteria above--one, a 2-year-old, won at 9-1; and another older runner was second at 7-1. Freshman sire Master Command had a recent synth sprint to turf route second time winner at Arlington, and Master Achievement worked an upbeat four furlongs on the Oklahoma turf last week in company with a Monmouth maiden claiming winner who has a lot of early speed. Master Achievement will be dismissed off a non-effort in his debut, but surface and distance changes should prove very valuable.

Race 10 - GII Jim Dandy S., 1 1/8m, 3yo - This race looks basically paceless, and whoever guns for the lead will have a distinct advantage. Will's Wildcat is very likely to be the one who grabs the early edge (Looks like I'll live and die with the Baker barn this week). Prior to the Long Branch, Will's Wildcat was two-for-two in dirt routes, winning by a combined 12 1/4 lengths and earning Beyers of 95 and 98. He won both those races on the lead while setting average paces. He didn't make the lead from his far outside draw in the July 9 Long Branch, however, and instead pressed an above-average early pace set by a hopeless longshot. That frontrunner threw in the towel prematurely, causing Will's Wildcat to take over the lead earlier than expected and softening him up a bit late to be fourth. He won't have to worry about a similar scenario this time, as both Moonshine Mullin and Dominus, the two horses coming off front-running victories, only found themselves in front early in their respective races because nobody else wanted the lead. Neither horse's early Moss Pace Figures compare to what Will's Wildcat figures to run, and if he's allowed to travel at his preferred clip, distance becomes the only issue. The mid- to high-90s Beyer that Will's Wildcat is capable of running when having things his own way should take this. Add to that Baker's display of confidence by scratching from the Curlin to run here, and you've got a live wire-to-wire threat who could light up the tote.

*All trainer stats courtesy of DRF Formulator.

Spa Watch: Opening Weekend

--Brian DiDonato

The most competitive, interesting and pari-mutuelly inviting meet of the year is finally here, and so is a new blog series--"Spa Watch." I plan to analyze as many interesting races--especially graded stakes and 2-year-old maidens--as I can, and will also look to come up with some trip horses to watch. As the meet progresses, I'll also offer up insight on which trainers appear to be hot or cold and will try to keep track of any biases that occur (Last year's turf course was incredibly speed-favoring, and playing horses who figured to get the lead regardless of other handicapping factors was very profitable--keep an eye out for a similar trend this year).

Check back here frequently for new posts. . .

Day #1 - Friday, July 22

James Marvin S. (Race 8) - By my count, nine horses (Jackson Bend, Aikenite, Gayego, Here Comes Ben, D' Funnybone, Hamazing Destiny, Caixa Electronica, Congressional Page and Jersey Town) can win this race. The toughest part of handicapping it is figuring out who will fire off the bench, as a number of major contenders are resurfacing after long breaks. While he sort of rose from obscurity late last year, Jersey Town might be the field's most talented runner. He was a very good second in the GIII Bold Ruler H. in October at this distance, earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure, and then upset an excellent field in the GI Cigar Mile with a gaudy 111 Beyer. He also fires fresh--Jersey Town won on debut and has made it to the winner's circle both times he's run after a lay-off line. Trainer Barclay Tagg wins at a 17% clip with a $2.17 ROI off of breaks of 180+ days, but that number drops to just 9% with a $0.58 ROI when filtered down to just dirt sprints*. Those stats are a bit worrisome, but not enough to discount Jersey Town's chances considering his own proven ability off the bench and an upbeat work tab.

Hamazing Destiny offers the race's best value at his 12-1 morning line simply off the strength of his runner-up effort in the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint. To finish 1 1/2 lengths back of the speedy Big Drama and a neck in front of the very good Smiling Tiger is a nice achievement and one that puts Hamazing Destiny in the thick of things here. You could probably argue that Hamazing Destiny had the toughest trip of the BC Sprint top three--Big Drama slowed the pace down drastically after a quick opening quarter and Smiling Tiger had a perfect, ground-saving journey, while Hamazing Destiny had to come very wide in the lane for clear sailing and was well out of it early. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas has won just 11% of the time off long lay-offs over the past five years, but that's also his overall winning percentage over the same time period. The expected price Hamazing Destiny will be should serve to offset the trainer stat concerns to some degree.

Verdict: Jersey Town would offer good win value at his 5-1 morning line or higher, but Hamazing Destiny could be the play depending on the odds--10-1+ on him seems fair. I'll mostly use those two and the very logical Caixa Electronica in the Pick 4, but won't completely leave off the other five mentioned above in what is a very wide-open way to kick off stakes racing at the Spa.

GIII Schuylerville S. (Race 9) - This is another well-matched group, but might be a better spot than the Marvin to take an aggressive shot. Georgie's Angel will be favored off a 6 1/4-length score at Churchill Downs on July 4, but the pace she was involved in was very slow early, and she's not really bred to be a sprinting win-early type. She can win, and maybe the fact that she won going 4 1/2 furlongs means that she’ll be even better at six furlongs, but Georgie’s Angel  will be underlaid. Morning line second-choice Gypsy Robin is also logical, and she appears to have worked a five-furlong bullet at Aqueduct July 8 in company with Judy the Beauty--another Wesley Ward-trained 2-year-old filly who took the Shady Well S. at Woodbine last Sunday with a 79 Beyer. Ward, however, has much lower numbers with 2-year-olds in New York than he does elsewhere. The juvenile specialist hits at a 30% clip with juveniles in dirt sprints at all tracks, but that number dips to just 13% (with an $0.82 ROI) on the NYRA circuit. Ward has also failed to hit the board in six previous attempts in graded races for 2-year-olds in New York over the past five years.

I'm very interested in Vukovar, who was purchased privately by Southern Equine Stables and handed over to Eric Guillot following a nice debut at Parx July 2. This outfit made similar successful move in 2008 when they purchased Elusive Bluff off a maiden win at Belmont in September and won the GIII Pilgrim S. a month later. Vukovar’s previous trainer, Cathal Lynch, has very good numbers--three-for-eight, 63% ITM--with second timers who won their debut, so there’s no reason to expect a negative reaction off the first effort. In a race with a relative lack of pace for early 2-year-olds, Vukovar's  speed should prove an asset. While the Moss Pace Figures she posted in her debut were pretty low, she broke so quickly and had such a jump on her competition that she was able to rate comfortably on the lead before repelling a bid from a well-bet fellow firster while racing greenly. Vukovar posted the co-fastest quarter-mile breeze (:21 1/5)  during the first of two OBSMAR under-tack shows before being withdrawn from the sale, so she's probably faster than she showed last time, and she hails from a precocious female family that includes juvenile stakes winner Sherriff Cogburn (Vindication) and his full-brother Sargent Seattle, who never panned out after a very nice winning debut on opening day four years ago.

Five Star Momma is the other horse I'll lean on. She's been up on hot paces in her last two starts, including a runner-up effort in the GIII Debutante S. at Churchill Downs June 25. The winner that day, Flashy Lassy (expected to scratch out of the Schuylerville), came from sixth of seven early, while the show horse came from last. Five Star Momma's trainer Scooter Dickey shipped Flat Out up to New York recently for an unexpected, but excellent winning performance in the GII Suburban. I must admit, I have no idea what to do with firster Alydarla. She was towards the top of breezers at OBSMAR (:20 4/5), has very fast works over the training track and her trainer, James Chapman, has had enough success from a limited number of starters that you can't totally discount this very aggressive spotting.

Verdict: Vukovar should be a nice price, and deserves win money at 6-1+. I'll use her and Five Star Momma in the Pick 4, with a little Alydarla in back-ups and exactas with my top two.

Day #2 - Saturday, July 23

GI Coaching Club American Oaks (Race 10) - I don’t have anything particularly insightful to say about this race. It’s an excellent and competitive event, but not the best betting race. Before It’s Tricky flopped in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, I predicted that she would emerge as the best 3-year-old filly in the country. Supposedly she didn’t do well with the transition from cold weather in New York to the tropical climate of Florida, and she bounced back in a big way in the GI Acorn--so, for the most part, I stand by my assertion. She’s not without questions here (mostly distance--based on performance, not pedigree), though, so I wouldn’t single her or take too short a price.

Royal Delta ran quick on the Beyer scale (100) and proved her ability at this trip in the GII Black-Eyed Susan. She did get a pretty perfect set-up, however, and that she was forced to miss the Mother Goose is a negative. Buster’s Ready might end up being the value of the race. After a much tougher trip than Royal Delta when finishing second in the Black-Eyed Susan, the Evans homebred ran away with the Mother Goose after the defections of Royal Delta and Plum Pretty. She doesn’t have the same type of reputation as the other fillies in this race, so it’s possible that her price will drift up higher than it should.

I’m against Plum Pretty, who didn’t have much excuse in the Hollywood Oaks and now must ship across the country to face a tougher group. Joyful Victory has been exposed in her last two, and she would need a complete pace collapse and a non-effort by Royal Delta to win.

Verdict: If It’s Tricky is as good around two turns as she was at a mile in the Acorn, she should win this. She’s far from unbeatable, however. Royal Delta is a logical horse to include, and Buster’s Ready could warrant a win bet if she’s ignored--9/2+ would be very inviting.

Race 7 - 6f MSW 3yo/up - Perfect Slam’s 8-1 morning line price is too high and could go up. The 4-year-old Brazilian bred was very well-backed in his Churchill Downs debut June 25, and he chased a speedy lay-off returnee before passing that one and hanging on for second. The winner appears to have returned to promising 2-year-old form, and the pacesetter came back to win handily with an improved Beyer figure at Indiana. Trainer Ken McPeek has won with four of nine second timers in dirt sprint maidens at Saratoga since ‘08 with a $4.28 ROI and 78% ITM.

Day #3 - Sunday, July 24

GII Sanford S. (Race 9) - Overdriven has been the most impressive 2-year-old to debut so far in New York--and probably the country--this year. The half to MGSW and MGISP Smooth Air earned a 100 Beyer Figure (the highest for a juvenile) for his 3 1/2-length score at Belmont July 1, and the horse he beat was a well-regarded $200,000 fast-working Timonium buy. It was 13 lengths back to the third-place finisher. Overdriven has a 22-point Beyer edge on his next-fastest competitor, and trainer Todd Pletcher has had plenty of success in graded stakes for 2-year-olds with debut winners making their second starts (Uncle Mo, Scat Daddy, Position Limit, Cotton Blossom and Devil May Care recently). He should win, but Beyer Figures for 2-year-olds early in their careers can be somewhat unreliable because a lot can change while horses are still developing, so I wouldn’t single him.

Power World was extremely impressive on debut at Churchill Downs June 11 going from last to first in the stretch--a move that rarely wins at 4 1/2 furlongs--and he was second in the GIII Bashford Manor after that with a somewhat tentative ride. The half to Grade II-winning sophomore and MGISP juvenile Santa Catarina raced into contention along the turn, but was reined in at that point, allowing the eventual winner, who was coming from farther back, to get the jump on him. He closed ground on the winner in the lane, and has a chance to run down the deserving favorite late if there’s a meltdown up front.

Verdict: I wouldn’t spend much trying to beat Overdriven, but I also wouldn’t dismiss Power World as a potential spoiler.

*All trainer stats courtesy of DRF Formulator.