Showdown at the Spa Wrap-up

 

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DiDonato: Monday - Draw Two put in a big late run to be a clear second-best in the first race--I still think he’ll be decent once he gets blinkers and more experience. Felt good that Pletcher was getting bet off the board in Steve’s race, but the money the Schettino runner took may have been more telling, and he dueled Stage Street into submission to protect my lead. Was ready to throw in the towel less than halfway into this thing, but glad Steve kept on firing and I was able to come up with a few winners at the right time for big bets. I think we complemented each other’s styles well. Of my winners, all were maidens and only two had ever run before--both were trying turf for the first time. Steve, meanwhile, did his best work with horses who had more established form. This could have easily gone either way, and I think it’s pretty impressive that we both ended up with a profit--it’s much harder than it looks without seeing odds and scratches and when you’re looking for horses who make for interesting write-ups. Great job, Steve. I look forward to our next showdown.

Sherack: Monday - Even if my top pick Stage Street kept on going after those torrid early fractions of :21.80 and :44.68, how unbearable would it have been to see him get DQ’d for wiping out nearly the entire field at the start? Kicking myself once again for not going with my first alternate, who easily defeated DiDonato’s top pick in the opener, but can only tip my cap at this point to my game rival for a job well done after trailing by nearly $800 through the first two weeks of action. Really tried to drop the hammer on him while I was up big, but I just couldn’t finish him off. I still turned a profit for the meet whichever way you crunch the numbers, and if not anything else, I hope we were at least entertaining, especially through our epic stretch duel during the final week. Showdown at the Inner Track, here we come! Hahaha...

 

Showdown at the Spa: Day 40

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - Another lead change! How exciting has this been? Well-backed Cue the Moon overcame tons of adversity to score first out at a well-bet 4-1. Anybody want to give me odds on her for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies? She might be the real deal going longer. So it all comes down to this... Steve and I have been discussing our picks and bet sizes beforehand every day mostly so there’s no overlap, but for today, we’re doing it blind to keep things fair. It would be a lot easier for me to know what I should do to try to protect my small lead if I knew who he was picking, but that’s no fun. Hopefully I don’t do something stupid. Good luck, Steve. Either way, this has been really fun and I’m proud of how well we’ve both done.

Monday - Race 1 - Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT - #5 Draw Two (7-2)
   Draw Two was supposed to be the horse I took my big stand with when he was entered in a similar spot Aug. 11, but Steve and I were at the track that weekend, so rain inevitably forced things off the grass. I’ve been waiting to bet him back ever since, and this would be a fitting spot to do it. Here’s my analysis from last time--nothing has changed on that front obviously. What’s probably more important today is the logic behind the size of my bet and expected price of my pick--there’s some interesting game theory at work here. First off, obviously the correct amount to bet is the most possible without losing the lead if Steve scratches through all his picks somehow. He’s never going to bet a small enough amount or pick a short enough price that I’d be able to protect my lead by just betting $2 if he hits. My first inclination was that I needed to pick a bomb to protect against the possibility of Steve going for a big price, but he usually goes for horses in the 2-1 to 5-1 range, so I don’t really see him going for a double-digit runner this time--especially when it’s a must-win situation. I think Draw Two will go off at about 3-1 (I think he’s more like 2-1 or even 3-2 to win), so if he wins the first I’ll go up about $165. If Steve makes a max bet, he’ll need to hit a little higher than a 2.6-1 shot to take the lead. That’s at the lower end of his range, but I’d rather protect against the more likely winners. Play: $42 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $42 Win on #4 Imperial Pippin (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 9 - $42 Win on #5 Majestic Hussar. Bankroll: $1,298.90 - Record: 36-5-4-6.      

Sherack: Sunday - Twigazuri Strait finally got a hot pace to run into, but still never fired at an underlayed 5-1 and finished sixth. Wish I had stayed loyal to a pair of my previous winners in this contest--Unbridled Command ($22.60) and So Many Ways ($9.80)--who both followed up in style with a graded stakes rolling double ($133). DiDonato’s pick somehow overcame a nightmare trip to get him back into the lead heading into the final day. It’s normal for a 33-year-old to be experiencing chest pains, right?

Monday - Race 6 - Msw, 2yo, 5 1/2f - #1 Stage Street (5-2)
   Of all the tough beats that I’ve experienced this summer, Stage Street getting reeled in to finish second is one of a handful that has really stuck with me, even if he was only even-money. The Mike McCarty colorbearer took a hard bump at the start after exiting from the one hole that day, and Leparoux did a remarkable job just to stay aboard. Stage Street recovered nicely to chase a hot pace in third over a sloppy track, looked like he was home free after shooting through a huge opening along the inside at the top of the stretch, but just couldn’t fend off the Pletcher/Starlight firster Park City and came up a length short. Stage Street has been unfortunately drawn on the rail again, but has a huge experience edge on his rivals here, composed of all first-time starters (not including the AEs). With a clean break this time, Stage Street will be long gone. Play: $62 Win (All In). Alternate 1: Race 1 - $62 Win (Turf Only) on #1 Noble Tune. Alternate 2: Race 2 - $62 Win (Turf Only) on #5 Carson Hall. Bankroll: $1,256.30 - Record: 39-9-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 39

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - Wow. This is really coming down to the wire. Was rooting like crazy for Emcee’s odds to come down so I could maintain the lead no matter what happened yesterday, but a late uptick on the Forego winner and then a too little, too late run from Cease put Steve Sherchalk back on top. You can cut the tension with a knife in the TDN’s Red Bank headquarters right now, and the mind games have begun. I think I’d rather be chasing than leading right now, as Mr. Sherack has some tough decisions to make. I’ll be laying a bit low today, but only to set up a big late push on closing day.

Sunday - Race 2 - Msw, 2yo, f, 7f - #1 Cue the Moon (6-1)   I said Thursday that Cue the Moon would be interesting if older workmate Run for Riches ran well. She didn’t--at all--but I still think Cue the Moon is pretty live. The $310,000 KEESEP yearling is a half to stakes-winning juvenile Red Hot Buddha from the family of GII Prioress S. winner and GI Ballerina S. runner-up Hurricane Bertie as well as MGSW and GI Alabama runner-up Allamerican Bertie. There’s some serious quality under the third dam as well, including GI Futurity S. winner Traitor, and GSW/GISPs Sun King and Ocean Drive. Trainer Jim Bond has a $4.19 ROI with 2-year-old firsters over the past five years according to DRF Formulator thanks to two bombs, but I’m more interested in his numbers when partnering with Ramon Dominguez. I rarely am even aware of who’s on my horse most of the time, as I think generally riders can only get horses beat with poor rides and it’s hard to predict when that will occur, but I can’t ignore the success of the Bond/Dominguez combo. They’ve hit at a 30% rate with a $3.42 ROI together since 2010, and an even more incredible 41% clip with a $5.18 ROI at the Spa. Those are some serious numbers, and support the notion that Cue the Moon will prove well-meant. Play: $10 Win. Alternate 1: Race 4 - $10 Win on #8 Twigazuri Straight (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 9 - $10 Win on #9 Spring to the Sky (turf only). Bankroll: $1,255.90 - Record: 34-4-4-6.

Sherack: Saturday - You seriously didn’t think that I’d let DiDonato come back and win this thing, did you? Emcee got pounded at the windows at 3-2 after the key early scratch of Shackleford in the Forego, but he thankfully still paid enough to vault me back into the lead with my $40-win ticket. DiDonato has already started talking to himself in the office Saturday night, and we’ve still got two days to go. Man, we couldn’t have scripted this any better!!

Sunday - Race 4 - Md 65000, 3yo, 1 1/16mT - #8 Twigazuri Strait (10-1)   Not in love with anything on Sunday’s card, but Twigazuri Strait is certainly playable at a nice number in the fourth. The son of English Channel looks to be as difficult to ride as his daddy was (Rosario really never looked comfortable on this guy in his first two attempts), so the rider change to Johnny V is really nice to see here. He’s finished with interest in a pair of paceless races thus far, including a sixth-place finish in a Aug. 3 Saratoga merry-go-round affair, and he figures to finally have the perfect set-up here. Will be running late for at least a piece. Play: $10 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 11 - $10 Win (Turf Only) on #12 Simple Exchange. Alternate 2: Race 6 - $10 Win on #2 Harmony Hills. Bankroll: $1,266.30 - Record: 38-9-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 38

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - Noosh’s Tale was just atrocious. . . I should’ve known better. And how about that freaky performance by My Happy Face in the first? That’s at least the third horse I had as a top pick to come back and win.

Saturday - Race 10 - GI Woodward S., 3yo/up, 1 1/8m - Cease (10-1)
   It feels like there's enough tactical speed in here to soften up Mucho Macho Man, who's the most formidable of the favorites. After him, it's wide open. Cease has an excellent record at both the distance and Saratoga and figures to be charging late. He's three-for-three at The Spa, all at this trip, and took Sam Houston's Maxxam Gold Cup H. in his only other dirt run at 1 1/8 miles. The Claiborne/Dilschneider homebred's best career Beyer Speed Figure of 102 came in an emphatic graduation romp here a year ago, and he exits a visually impressive allowance tally July 25. Closing into a below-average early pace, Cease circled the field and powered home in the lane to a somewhat workmanlike, but decisive victory. He only earned a 95 Beyer last time, but since he's run faster before, it's not much of a concern and can only help his price. Play: $25 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $25 Win on #4 Dominus. Alternate 2: Race 9 - $15 Win on #3 Isn't He Perfect. Bankroll: $1,280.90 - Record: 33-4-4-5.

Sherack: Friday - Ughhh. Not again. My alternate pick Conspiracy delivered at 5-1 in the seventh, but the top selection on the day Beer Is Good was anything but good in the finale, chasing the early leader before folding in the stretch. Looks like you still have the lead for now DiDonato, unless you’ve got some more hot Pat Kelly firsters up your sleeves?

Saturday - Race 9 - GI Forego S., 3yo/up, 7f - #6 Emcee (9-2)   I hope there’s still some room in the Godolphin/McLaughlin trophy case for one more Grade I win at the Spa this summer. I’ve been on the Emcee train the entire season, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his paws on one of these. The lightly raced 4-year-old showed his class while making his third career start, dueling with the fleet Royal Currier throughout and collecting third in game fashion behind inner track specialist Calibrachoa and the classy Caleb’s Posse in the GIII Tom Fool H. over the Big A’s winterized surface Mar. 3. I was banking on the GI Carter H. to be Emcee’s shining moment, but it clearly wasn’t meant to be after he lost all chance badly missing the break en route to a disappointing fourth-place finish. Wisely given a shot to regain his composure in his next try at Belmont May 5, the son of Unbridled’s Song did exactly what he was supposed to do as the 1-2 chalk in a $50k optional claimer, stalking on the outside in third and pouncing in the stretch to post a smart 4 1/2-length victory at this distance, good for a gaudy 107 Beyer. Freshened following that score, he was drawn on the inside and forced to duel early through :21.99 and :44.61 in the six-furlong GI A.G. Vanderbilt Aug. 5, and ran his heart out to be a close third after doing all of the heavy lifting over a tiring and harrowed muddy strip. This race figures to set up much more like his aforementioned score downstate with him being drawn to the outside and the price will be right to make a nice score here. Play: $40 Win. Alternate 1: Race 2 - $25 Win (Turf Only) on #2 Knock Rock. Bankroll: $1,204.30 - Record: 37-8-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 37

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Thursday - Wow. . . That’s hilarious. I picked Miami Cat last time when Leparoux absolutely butchered the ride and he finished a much-the-best fourth at 9-1. Sherack didn’t even like the horse today (who would’ve been 15-1 on his own and would’ve interested me)--he liked the other half of the entry--but he ended up benefitting from the rider change and our stupid decision to count both halves of an entry to make things very close going into the last four days of the meet. I’m not happy, Sherack. This means war. Oh ya--and my pick Run for Riches didn’t run for anything. I knew I should've made Archwarrior my top pick.

Friday - Msw, (S), 2yo, 5 1/2fT - Noosh's Tale (6-1)
   Goodtolook figures to be a big favorite trying the turf here, and while the Disco Rico on the grass angle is at play, I think you're supposed to look for regression and try to beat him. He was bet down to 7-5 favoritism when unveiled on the main track Aug. 22, but faded to fourth after setting a below-average pace (seven points below par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale). Trainer Gary Contessa must have had Goodtolook cranked up first out considering the money he took, and the conditioner's stats in similar spots to this leave a lot to be desired. According to DRF Formulator, Contessa's 0-for-15 over the past five seasons with maiden second timers trying turf in sprints. The trainer stats on Noosh's Tale aren't any better, but he's got a big-time pedigree for this. His dam Upper Noosh (Red Ransom) took the GIII Miss Grillo S. by five lengths as a juvenile over the Belmont sod, and she's produced five surface winners from six foals to race. Noosh's Tale's siblings include familiar MGSP turf sprinter Yield Bogey and Upper East Sider, a very impressive first-turf graduate at 12-1 in 2010. Trainer Pat Kelly did run third at 18-1 with another 2-year-old firster over this course and distance on the 17th, so there's reason to believe Noosh's Tale can be well-enough prepared to let her pedigree shine. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 4 - $15 Win on #4 Ear D' Rhythm (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 4 - $15 Win on #2 Dancinginyourdreams. Bankroll: $1,300.90 - Record: 32-4-4-5.

Sherack: Thursday - Not quite the way I drew it up, but I'll certainly take it. The other part of the entry Miami Cat saved me big time with a powerful late surge to deliver in the Equalize. Extra sweet throwing a little salt in the wound cashing on DiDonato's trip horse from last time and getting right back within striking distance here. Feeling pretty good driving home from the Spa after this hit and run job.

Friday - Race 9 - Clm 35000B, 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - #1 Beer Is Good (12-1)
   Beer Is Good has a lot more going for himself besides having a great name. The Mid-Atlantic shipper proved he belonged in these parts with a strong second to Precious Metal (returned off the Jacobson claim to run a career-best 86 Beyer behind the in-form Mineswept at the Spa Aug. 20) after dueling throughout and leading in deep stretch in a $20k beaten tagger for conditioner Robert Bailes July 26. Claimed by Team Clear Star Stable and trainer Rick Schosberg out of that effort, the son of Bob and John returned on relatively short notice hiked up to this level Aug. 10, and just never showed up, flashing early speed and tiring to finish a well-beaten ninth at 5-1, but he does have some excuses to consider. The skies opened up in upstate New York while they were in the paddock for the opener that day, and the turf course turned into a complete swamp, clearly not to Beer Is Good’s liking after posting three straight big efforts on firm ground for his former connections. He’s now had the proper time to adjust to Schosberg’s program, has breezed twice since (he didn’t even get a work in prior to his last start), has smart speed, is drawn on the rail, and Johnny V taking over the reins from Lezcano is a major plus as well. This isn’t the easiest spot ever, but I think he can be dangerous at a nice number if able to kick clear on the turn for home if the course stays as firm as it’s been the past few weeks. Play: $30 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 7 - $25 Win on #2 Conspiracy. Alternate 2: Race 8 - $25 Win on #2 Alaura Michele. Bankroll: $1,234.30 - Record: 36-8-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 36

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Wednesday - Nine O Wonderful got a weak ride, failing to go through a wide-open seam at the top of the lane. When finally guided clear after being stymied on the inside, he flew home fastest of all (:22.96) to finish a close fifth. Probably would’ve been right there with better handing.

Thursday - Race 4 - Msw, f, 3yo/up, 7f - #6 Run for Riches (15-1)
   Steve and I were both going to pick Buleria, who had an awful trip last time and figures to get a ton of pace, in the fifth, but for the good of the contest, we agreed to stay away from her. There were some real tense cat-and-mouse moments there and I was trying to calculate the best amount to bet if we were both going to take her... I’m glad it didn’t come to that. Instead I’ll go with Run for Riches, who feels like she has to be better than she showed on debut. Bet a bit at 6-1 when unveiled going a mile at Aqueduct in November, the grey showed early interest before stopping badly. She’s worked very well in preparation for this return--apparently in company with well-bred expensive unraced 2-year-old Cue the Moon, who may be one to watch for depending on how Run for Riches does. More interesting is trainer James Bond’s past success when making this sort of move. He’s scored twice since 2009 with maiden second-timers turning back off the bench at Saratoga--both were 8-1 and had similarly uninspiring running lines first out. Play: $20 Win. Alternate 1: Race 9 - $20 Win on #7 Twilight Eclipse (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 3 - $2 Win on #3 Archwarrior. Bankroll: $1,320.90 - Record: 31-4-4-5.

Sherack: Wednesday - Da Mi Basia Mille had every chance in the P.G. Johnson, but just didn’t kick on in the stretch like she did in her debut to finish a disappointing fourth at 5-1... Of course my alternate pick Corinzia came charging in the nightcap to light up the tote board at $25.00... Hoping a day trip to the Spa turns my luck around today.

Thursday - Race 9 - Equalize S., 3yo, 1mT - #1 Csaba (3-1)
   Was convinced that I found a horse that could get me back in the lead in this thing with Buleria in the fifth, so you could only imagine my frustration when DiDonato confirmed via email Wednesday morning that he was on the Empire Maker filly as well. At least I can still bet plenty of real currency on her though. I couldn’t have been more impressed by Sonofasamurai’s maiden breaker Aug. 18 (you just don’t see 2-year-olds split horses the way he did in the stretch and continue to punch on home) and couldn’t wait to bet him back, but shouldn’t the man aboard that day, David Cohen, be even more impressed than the guy that was watching on a television screen 200+ miles away in Red Bank, NJ? Cohen is instead listed to ride stablemate He’s So Fine, and after still kicking myself for landing on the wrong McPeek horse in the Travers, I’m going to look elsewhere for my main play today. That leaves me with Csaba. Loved him on either surface for the GII Hall of Fame S. (click here for my Aug. 10 analysis), but had to swallow a much shorter price when the rains arrived. He still ran great that day, coming up only a nose short while delivering an ultra-game performance. Shorter distance will help, gets a favorable rider change to Castro and should be out there winging from his inside draw. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s coupled with Brian’s trip horse from Aug. 19 Miami Cat, either. Willing to take a shorter price than usual to help bridge the gap with DiDonato. Likely favorite Finale certainly looks vulnerable in this spot off the bench. Play: $50 Win (POE). Alternate 1: Race 10 - $25 Win (Turf Only) on #2B Sonofasamurai. Bankroll: $1,056.80 - Record: 35-7-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 35

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.
 

DiDonato: Monday - Chief Gaga left himself with a bit too much to do and could only muster a mild bid to be fourth. He might be interesting stretching out on the turf next time.

Wednesday - Race 6 - Win S., 1mT, 3yo/up - #5 Nine O Wonderful (8-1)
   While speed figures are much less reliable on the turf due to the slow early pace of most grass races, come-home times can be very useful for uncovering runners who are better than they look on the figures. Nine O Wonderful is that type of horse--his 82 and 84 recent Beyers don't compare favorably with the 90+s of many in this field--but he absolutely flies home. Let go at 13-1 in a first-level allowance at Belmont May 13, the 4-year-old covered his final furlong in :22.03 to best decent French GSP runner and subsequent winner Barocci, who covered his last eighth in :22.64. Nine O Wonderful was dismissed at the same price in an optional claimer on opening day here, but looked like a winner at every point in the race and put in a final furlong in :21.83 to get up by a measured neck. Stakes-winning runner-up Followmyfootsteps was clocked in :22.47. Group 1-placed Salto, who had a bit of trouble, was the second-fastest closer in :22.03. I'm not sure the fields Nine O Wonderful exits were much weaker than this one, and I'm positive he's better than he looks on the Beyers. The projected early pace might not be as fast as I'd like, but I know who will be moving quickest in the lane. Play: $30 Win (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 8 - $25 Win on #6 Skyfall (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 5 - $10 Win on #9 (turf only). Bankroll: $1,350.90 - Record: 30-4-4-5.

Sherack: Monday - My Barclay Tagg firster Judy G took more money than expected at 4-1, but didn’t run to it, coming up empty in the stretch to finish sixth after briefly leading once the pacesetter bolted on the turn.

Wednesday - Race 8 - P.G. Johnson S., 2yo, f, 1 1/16mT - #5 Da Mi Basia Mille (6-1)

   The price is just going to be too nice to pass up on impressive debut winner Da Mi Basia Mille here. Overlooked at 8-1 while attempting this same distance in her unveiling over the Mellon course July 23, the gray bided her time toward the back through fractions of :22.55 and :46.99. With Jose Lezcano aboard, Da Mi Basia Mille crept up closer down the backstretch, hit the gas with an impressive wide move on the turn for home and exuded class while charging down the center of the course to win by a geared down 1 1/4 lengths, earning a respectable 71 Beyer in the process. Fifth-place finisher that day Broken Spell came back to earn her diploma Aug. 19, and returns on quick notice for this contest. Da Mi Basia Mille will have more than enough pace to run at with several sprinters stretching out here, and it certainly doesn’t hurt that she represents one of  the top barns in the country in the Christophe Clement stable. Nothing but respect for Pletcher’s big two of Top Tier Lass and Tara From the Cape, and the European invader Watsdachances (Ire) certainly merits attention as well, but just think that they will all be running for second in this one. Play: $40 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 10 - $20 Win (Turf Only) on #9 Corinzia. Alternate 2: Race 9 - $10 Win on #2 Slamm’n Lou. Bankroll: $1,096.80 - Record: 34-7-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 34

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - Wish I could gloat about Owen Rico romping and paying $14.60, but since I got greedy and played a big daily double with Royal Delta instead of a win, I’ll go bash my head against the wall instead...

Monday - Race 10 - Msw, 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - #1 Chief Gaga (12-1)
   Chief Gaga tries the turf here for low-profile owner/trainer Tamzen Johnson, and figures to get lost on the board despite having run Beyer Speed Figures that compare favorably with this group. Johnson claimed the bay for $20,000 from Steve Asmussen out of a runner-up effort here July 25, and brought him back to run a decent-enough sixth against maiden special weight company Aug. 4. Chief Gaga earned a career-best 69 Beyer for that effort--the co-best fig in the race--so it’s not as if he regressed off the trainer change. He now tries the surface he’s best-bred for on the bottom and shows a three-furlong blow-out over the Oklahoma sod Aug. 22. The son of Indian Charlie is a half-brother to Well Monied (Maria’s Mon), GSW and MGISP on the lawn; and Jimmy Simms (Lost Soldier), MSW and GSP over turf. Play: $24 Win (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 7 - $20 Win on #4 Joanne’s Halo (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 10 - $10 Win on #10 Belvoir (turf only). Bankroll: $1374.90 - Record: 29-4-4-5.
      
Note: I had a bankroll miscalculation yesterday... not used to actually tallying winning pay-offs lately. It’s right now.

Sherack: Sunday - Man, I liked this contest a lot better when DiDonato’s top picks were getting scratched every day... Got the price that I was looking for on Lord of Love, but he could do no better than a non-threatening sixth at 9-1.

Monday - Race 7 - Msw, 2yo, f, 5 1/2fT - #3 Judy G (8-1)
   First Samurai has been on a nice roll of late with his juvenile grass runners, including recent maiden winners Sonofasamurai ($15.40) at Saratoga Aug. 18 and Rutherford Rd ($42.20) at Woodbine Aug. 24. Banking on his daughter Judy G, the first foal out of the grassy Grade III-placed Miracle Moment (Chester House), to keep the ball rolling for the Claiborne stallion. In addition to her pedigree, the bay certainly looks well-meant for the green stuff, boasting a handful of sharp moves on the infield, most recently covering five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 around the dogs over the Oklahoma turf Aug. 24. It’s been a quiet Saratoga meeting for the well-respected Barclay Tagg barn, but that could change in a hurry if this filly shows up ready to play. Play: $30 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 2 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #6 Arch Support.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 33

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - Well, that was nice. Summer of Fun, who I’ve been waiting to cash on since OBSMAR, got the job done to the tune of $24.80. Looks like we’ve got a contest on our hands again...

Sunday - Race 11 - Msw, (S), 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - #12 Owen Rico (6-1)
   I’m not sure what the ROI is, but a Disco Rico trying turf for the first time is a very profitable angle. All you have to do is look at the recently run pair of New York-bred turf stakes for 3-year-olds here to see that he throws runners who love the lawn. Owen Rico makes the switch to the infield and has tons of other things going for him. Dismissed at 20-1 for his seven-panel unveiling here Aug. 9, the Edition Farm homebred was part of an above-average pace (five points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale) before settling for fourth in a race that came apart in the end. Trainer Tom Bush has had very little success with firsters in recent years, but he’s four-for-14 with a $2.51 ROI over the past five seasons with second-time-starting maidens trying the turf (courtesy DRF Formulator). The cut back in distance should help and, perhaps most interestingly, he’s a new gelding. Play: $49 Win. Alternate 1: Race 5 - $20 Win on #9 Lawyer Jim (turf only). Bankroll: $1099.20 - Record: 28-3-4-5. 

Sherack: Saturday - Looks like I’m going to have to actually start handicapping again if I want to pull off a wire-to-wire job here. Well done, DiDonato. Should be an exciting stretch run as we approach the final week. As for my pick Saturday, Atigun ran good in the Travers, but not good enough, finishing a close fourth at 8-1.

Sunday - Race 5 - Msw, (S), 3yo/up, 1 1/16mT - #11 Lord of Love (5-1)
   Lord of Love has looked like a new horse in two attempts at three since returning from a December layoff in mid-July. He’s posted consecutive career-best performances while being stuck on the inside in the stretch, including a strong rallying third, to come within a half-length of the winner at 10-1 last time. Great to see the Hertler barn enjoying a banner Saratoga meeting, getting a pair of wins out of Jitney and also saddling another maiden winner earlier this week. There’s a good chance, or at least I’m hoping, that Lord of Love goes off nearly double his morning-line odds in this one. Dare to dream. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 3 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #3 White Sangria. Alternate 2: Race 11 - $8 Win (Turf Only) on #5 Saguaro Blossom. Bankroll: $1,146.80 - Record: 32-7-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 32

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - All Due Respect got loose like I thought at 20-1 in the Ballerina, but just couldn’t hold off Turbulent Descent or Derwin’s Star and settled for third. Right idea, but she just wasn’t good enough.

Saturday - Race 6 - Msw, f, 2yo, 1 1/16mT - Summer of Fun (15-1)   I guess I'm sort of married to Summer of Fun, who I liked at the OBS March sale and who I picked as a "turf only" selection in her rained-off debut Aug. 5 (here's the case I made that day). She didn't run terribly considering she was on the wrong surface and going too short--she never looked comfortable in the sloppy going, but chased an above-average pace to race into contention until fading to fifth in upper stretch. While I'm not sure how relevant it is considering Summer of Fun was turf meant in her debut, trainer George Weaver is four-for-24 over the past five seasons with maiden second timers going dirt to turf (courtesy DRF Formulator). I do fear the runner-up and third-place finisher coming out of Summer of Fun's heat, and will probably box her with those two in my personal plays. Second-place finisher Tap Twenty One was much the best and only got beat by a questionable ride, while Anita Chica figures to love the turf stretch-out. Neither of those shorter-priced runners, however, are going to help me narrow the gap with Sherack. Play: $33 (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 12 - $30 Win on #2 Five Sixteen. Alternate 2: Race 3 - $30 Win on #8 Security Analysis (turf only). Alternate 3: Race 5 - $30 Win on #4 Mulheb. Bankroll: $690 - Record: 28-2-4-5.

Sherack: Friday - Frivolous Alex, sent off as the 2-1 favorite (still have no idea why she was 6-1 on the morning-line), was allowed to set an easy enough pace under a heady ride by Joel Rosario, but got swallowed up in deep stretch and finished fourth. 

Saturday - Race 12 - GI Travers S., 3yo, 1 1/4m - #7 Atigun (12-1)   Made my case for Atigun in the GII Jim Dandy S., then made my case for a rider change following a disappointing sixth after he was strangled for most of the running. Well, I got my wish with Mike Smith taking over the reins, and Atigun can only benefit from the added real estate here and, hopefully, a fast surface. It won’t be easy, but the price will seem generous if he runs back to his strong third behind Union Rags and Paynter in the GI Belmont S. Plenty of great betting opportunities on this loaded 13-race card, including alternate play Which Market, who I really love in the eighth. Play: $25 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $30 Win (Turf Only) on #4 Which Market. Bankroll: $1,171.80 - Record: 31-7-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 31

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Thursday - Kamchatka was bet down to an underlaid 7-2 and got bounced around a bit in the lane before settling for fourth. To top it all off, Sherack found another winner in Central Banker. My only hope at this point may be if Bernanke announces QE3 for my bankroll.

Friday - Race 9 - GI Ballerina S. - #2 All Due Respect (20-1)
   Ready for the craziest DRF Formulator stat you've ever seen? Over the last five years, trainer Todd Pletcher is two-for-31 with a $0.19 ROI with new acquisitions in graded stakes. That's enough for me to play against heavy favorite Turbulent Descent, who I've always thought was a bit dressed up (going to assume It's Tricky will scratch as expected). Unlike the GII Honorable Miss H. that featured one of the hottest paces you'll see here three weeks ago, there's very little speed in the Ballerina. Turnback All Due Respect figures to be on the lead, and while her 2012 form isn't really up to par with these, she has races further back that fit well. Conditioner Rick Dutrow scores at a 31% clip with a $2.53 ROI turning back and going turf to dirt, and All Due Respect could add to those solid numbers if she gets clear here. Play: $30 Win. Alternate 1: Race 2 - $15 Win on #8 Pure Treasure. Bankroll: $720 - Record: 27-2-4-4.

Sherack: Thursday - Nice tally by Central Banker ($7.80) to get us back in the win column and open up some more daylight on DiDonato as we hit the homestretch. My Asmussen firster came running late at 12-1 in that one too, coming within a neck of completing the exacta. Time to start rolling again.

Friday - Race 7 - Clm 20000N2L, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/16mT - #3 Frivolous Alex (6-1)
   Frivolous Alex looks like the right one here at a very generous morning-line quote of 6-1. She’ll certainly appreciate this drop to $20k non-winners of two lifetime after graduating in wire-to-wire fashion in a $40k tagger at Monmouth July 15 and finishing a respectable fifth after leading in the stretch in a $35k beaten claiming event over this course Aug. 2. The bay has some decent early foot, gets a great speed rider in Joel Rosario, and hails from the very dangerous George Weaver barn, which has been rolling throughout the entire meeting. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 3 - $14 Win on #3 Perfect Trippi. Bankroll: $1,196.80 - Record: 30-7-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 30

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Wednesday - Just for Today was too far back and couldn't make up any real ground in the lane. Looking like I'm going to need a miracle and going to have to take some big swings in the final week.

Thursday - Race 6 - Msw, 2yo, 5 1/2fT, #4 Kamchatka (5-1)   I didn't love anything on this card, to be honest, so I'll take a shot with a horse who just has to be better than he showed in his debut. Kamchatka sold for $550,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Florida sale after breezing an eighth in :10 2/5. It was a nice enough showing--he has a high action that might be good for the turf--but the breeze and his page which, again, is decent, doesn't scream $550,000 to me. I'm going to assume someone who knows a lot more than me about that kind of thing liked the horse for good reason. Given a 9-2 chance first out on the dirt at Churchill June 17, Kamchatka basically tried to prop early, made a brief move and then stopped. It wasn't particularly promising, but he returned to work a third-fastest-of-52 five furlongs on the training turf here July 30 and could improve with the addition of blinkers. There's a little turf in his pedigree--Tale of the Cats like the lawn and his dam's a half to a GSW in France and England--and trainer Mike Maker does alright switching to grass second out. According to DRF Formulator, Maker maidens score at a 31% clip with a $3.14 ROI trying the turf in their second starts--slightly higher ($3.28) from a small sample size when reduced to just sprints. Play: $20 Win (turf only). Alternate 1: $20 Win on #1 Espiritu Libre. Alternate 2: $15 Win on #11 Never the End (turf only). Bankroll: $740 - Record: 26-2-4-4.

Sherack: Wednesday - Knock Rock (took a very large win bet late to go from 10-1 to 6-1 once they sprung the latch; I swear it wasn’t me) sat a perfect stalking trip behind the eventual winner, and just got tagged in the final jumps to get nailed for second.

Thursday - Race 6 - Msw, 2yo, 5 1/2fT - #2 Central Banker (4-1)   I, too, didn’t find anything that I loved on this card, so I decided to go with a runner in Brian’s race to make the day in the office slightly more interesting. Central Banker, a $200,000 KEESEP yearling graduate, gained valuable racing experience in his unveiling, finishing a clear-cut distant third behind the very impressive Canadian shipper Jocosity in his Saratoga debut Aug. 3. Love Speightstowns on the grass, and this guy’s dam Rhum was a steady stakes performer on the green stuff, too (16-7-2-1). Central Banker’s half-brother, the very in-form sprinter Gantry, handled turf quite well earlier in his career, getting a win and also a close fifth-place finish in the GIII Jaipur. Also like that Central Banker went out for a four-furlong spin around the dogs on the training turf since the debut. Hoping to pair him up in the gimmicks with the Asmussen firster at a price. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 8 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #2 Star Torina. Bankroll: $1,138.80 - Record: 29-6-4-4.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 29

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Monday - After the Bell was an even fourth. Starting to run out of time, but really like my horse today, so we’ll see. 

Wednesday - Race 8 - Str/Opt Clm, 3yo/up, 1 1/8m - #8 Just for Today (15-1)   After two middling tries at Churchill this spring, Just for Today overcame tons of adversity to earn his diploma in a $50,000 maiden claimer over track and trip here Aug. 6 (making him the only runner in the field with a win at Saratoga or at the distance). Dropping out of it early after an awkward beginning, the Claiborne homebred looked hopeless as he lagged towards the back of the pack behind an opening half in :51.01, good for a 53 Moss Pace Figure (22 points below par). He inched closer to the frontrunners entering the stretch, however, and mowed them all down to get up by a nose despite a little greenness. Just for Today only earned a 67 Beyer, but that'll help his price. There's no way the final time could have been fast considering how slow they went early, and the 81 final Moss Pace Figure Just for Today received seems closer to what he probably ran Beyer-wise. A figure around 80 is very likely to take this against a field of shaky dropdowns and distance question marks, and it's worth noting that trainer Al Stall, Jr. elects not to dangle Just for Today in for the $50,000 optional tag. Stall hits at a 33% clip with a $2.37 ROI in dirt routes off a maiden win, according to DRF Formulator, and he's scored at a 38% rate with a $2.74 ROI in dirt routes at the Spa over the past five seasons. Play: $35 Win. Alternate 1: Race 6 - $25 Win on Impetuous Spirit (turf only). Alternate 2: $15 Win on #1 Goodtolook. Bankroll: $775 - Record: 25-2-4-4.

Sherack: Monday - Opalite looked loaded while under a tight hold down the backstretch, but never really fired in the stretch, reporting home a non-threatening sixth at 14-1.

Wednesday - Race 6 - Clm 35000B, 3yo/up, 1 1/16mT - #5 Knock Rock (8-1)   The versatile Knock Rock returns on quick notice against slightly tougher following a strong third after an eventful trip versus $25k taggers Aug. 13. I’ve made my case for him in each of his last two starts, and he’s produced career-best efforts on both occasions, including his long overdue maiden win July 25. He’s run big on short rest before--co-career high 75 Beyer in salty Belmont maiden 13 days after a fifth-place finish in the GIII Pilgrim S. as a maiden last October--and love seeing him spotted aggressively here. Don’t think you’ll get the 8-1 quoted on the morning-line, but he should still present good enough value on a horse-for-the-course that’s in top form at the moment. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 10 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #5 Snookie Slew. Bankroll: $1,163.80 - Record: 28-6-4-3.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 27

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - Elmutahid, let go at a generous 12-1, set easy splits and gave me quite the thrill before Sonofasamurai showed an impressive burst of speed to blow by him. He was game to battle back for second, though.

Sunday - Race 6 - Str/Opt Clm, 3yo, 1 1/16mT - Miami Cat (12-1)   An abundance of early speed signed on scares me a bit, but I can't help but think that Miami Cat is entered here for a reason. The chestnut's Calder form is decent--he earned an 86 Beyer Speed Figure for a 6 3/4-length off-the-turf allowance win in May, and was subsequently flattered when the runner-up came back to score twice. Miami Cat pressed a hot pace (nine points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale) last time in the also rained-off Mambo Meister S. May 26, but faded to sixth. That field featured a trio of next-out winners, including a pair who took stakes. One of those stakes winners was fellow Phil Gleaves trainee Csaba, who was second by a nose in the off-the-turf GII Hall of Fame S. here last week. Miami Cat clearly accompanied his stablemate from Florida, and could be poised to follow in that one's footsteps and give a good account of himself. The pair worked in company over the turf in Miami July 30, covering four furlongs around the dogs in a quick :48 flat. It's hard to imagine that Gleaves, who bred and co-owns Miami Cat, couldn't have found a spot at his home track for this runner. He's got no pedigree whatsoever to suggest the surface switch will suit him, but I'm betting that Miami Cat proves very well-meant. Play: $20 Win on #4 (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 8 - $20 Win on #3 Medolina (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 9 - $15 Win on #6 Marvelous Margaret. Bankroll: $820 - Record: 22-2-4-4.

Sherack: Saturday - Sea Island had the perfect set-up in the Alabama, but just never fired behind the ultra-impressive Questing.

Sunday - Race 8 - GII Lake Placid S., 3yo, f, 1 1/8mT - #4 Better Lucky (5-1)   While much will be made about the unlucky trip that last year’s GII Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf heroine Stephanie’s Kitten’s received when fourth as the favorite in the GII Lake George S. at the Spa July 25--and rightfully so--things didn’t exactly go according to plan for Darley homebred Better Lucky that day, either. Checked hard repeatedly while entering the clubhouse turn, Better Lucky was forced to trail the field of eight early, but wanted no part of it, and immediately started making a solid middle move into quick fractions of :23 2/5 and :47. She impressively kept the momentum rolling with a four-wide sweep on the far turn to challenge for command and kept on fighting on bravely in the stretch in a very roughly run race to come up only a neck short of the streaking Centre Court. The daughter of Ghostzapper proved that she was a quality runner when annexing her turf debut against graded company with a game nose tally in Belmont’s GII Sands Point S. May 28, and should only move forward with the added distance in her second try since. If she’s ridden aggressively early, Better Lucky should be in a perfect stalking position behind Medolina in second, and will have a nice jump on the aforementioned big two, which may be the deciding factor. Play: $30 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 2 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #3 Johar Beauty. Bankroll: $1,207.80 - Record: 26-6-4-3.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 26

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - Leaping Lady chased the pace before fading badly in the ninth. One race earlier, alternate Crafty Push scored at 6-1. For once, I was rooting for a late off-the-turf announcement.
 
Saturday - Race 2 - Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT - #5 Elmutahid (8-1)
   Shadwell homebred Elmutahid was unveiled by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin going seven panels over the Belmont sod July 15, but was sandwiched at the start and dropped back. He got a bit headstrong down the backstretch and into the turn, and faded to seventh after pulling himself into contention. The dark bay should show more with a better trip today, and McLaughlin excels with maiden second-time starters stretching out on the turf. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he boasts an 8-for-19 record (42%) with a $3.82 ROI in the relevant category. One of the runners who accounts for McLaughlin’s lofty numbers is Elmutahid’s dam Alwajeeha (Dixieland Band). Alwajeeha was fifth first out as a juvenile going six panels on the Belmont lawn in 2007, but broke through when stretched to a mile at Aqueduct next out. She’d go on to annex the GI QE II Challenge Cup S. at Keeneland the following year. Play: $25 Win (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 4 - $15 Win on #3 Bad Hombre. Alternate 2: Race 2 - $15 Win on #13 Never the End. Bankroll: $845 - Record: 22-2-3-4.     

Sherack: Friday - Chat Me Up was hammered down to 2-1 after a pair of gate scratches, but ran like she was scratched too, finishing last of five.

Saturday - Race 10 - GI Alabama S., 3yo, f, 1 1/4m - #1 Sea Island (12-1)
   Grace Hall and Questing will obviously be extremely tough to beat in this spot and are very deserving favorites, but I’m willing to take a chance at an enticing price with Sea Island, who may take a big leap forward with the added distance here. The Phipps homebred couldn’t have been more impressive when stretched to 1 1/8m at the Spa last time, defeating classy older fillies and mares, including St. John’s River and Acting Happy in a $50k optional claimer, clocking her final eighth in a sharp :12.67. Sea Island has since returned to the worktab with a best-of-36 four-furlong bullet in :48 1/5 over the Oklahoma training track Aug. 13, clearly a good sign for a barn that rarely works them fast. Sea Island’s dam Resort, a close sixth in this race in 2000, could run all day, finishing second in the CCA Oaks held at 1 1/2m that term. Stranger things have happened at the Graveyard of Favorites. Play: $20 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $20 Win on #11 Ivanho. Bankroll: $1,227.80 - Record: 25-6-4-3.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 25

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Thursday - No Nukes was completely ignored and let go at 19-1 in the sixth. He needed a busy ride to keep up with well-meant firster Stoneless, but kept on going in the lane to finish second behind that runner. Alternate pick Gombey Dancer was also a nice-priced runner-up, so we’ve definitely been on overlays. Just need one to break through.

Friday - Race 9 - Alw, (S), f/m, 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - Leaping Lady (10-1)   Leaping Lady's form doesn't look quite as strong as it could because she's been on wet tracks for three of her five lifetime starts. Her two dry track runs make her very competitive here, however, and she figures to be even better on the lawn. The chestnut was third at second asking last October at Belmont against a tough group that was headed by subsequent GSW Agave Kiss and that featured several other eventual stakes performers. Her other dry-strip run came two back at Belmont May 27--she set a very hot pace (12 points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale), but kept on going in the lane to best a next-out winner and earn a 78 Beyer Speed Figure. That number puts Leaping Lady right there with the favorites in this race, and the speed she showed that day puts her at an advantage in this relatively paceless affair. On pedigree, the turf should be Leaping Lady's preferred surface. Sire Mass Media seems to produce winners on both surfaces, but both Leaping Lady's dam and her lone sibling to race earned career-best Beyers on the lawn. That sibling, Bounding Bi (Outflanker), is three times stakes-placed in turf sprints. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 8 - $20 Win on #4 Crafty Push. Bankroll: $870 - Record: 21-2-3-4.

Sherack: Thursday - Jennys Creek gave me a pretty good run for my money at 14-1, just getting tagged late for second to finish a respectable third in the finale.

Friday - Race 3 - Md 65000, 3yo, f, 1mT - #4 Chat Me Up (5-1)   Chat Me Up, claimed by Dominick Schettino for $25k off Mitchell Friedman out of a strong second-place finish to Bakin’ With Cindy (came back to run a solid third in a OC65k/SAL with a 74 Beyer) on the weeds downstate May 20, showed immediate improvement in her first start for these connections. Freshened and hiked to $65k, the dark bay delivered a career high Beyer of 69 when a rallying third at 12-1 July 12. Mother Nature failed to cooperate for her next start--she finished an uninspired sixth in an off-the-turfer going seven furlongs here Aug. 6--and she returns in a good spot off short rest. Not a big fan of any of her opponents who are dropping in from maiden special weights; the Clement firster from the rail with Ramon looks like the obvious main danger. Took a tough beat with her stablemate Hunter Forward a couple of weeks back; hoping this one makes amends for a barn that is currently firing on all cylinders. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 9: $20 Win on #9 Akira. Alternate 2: Race 2: $40 Win on #5 Moment in Dixie. Bankroll: $1,252.80 - Record: 24-6-4-3.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 24

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Wednesday - Curve Ball (7-1) looked like the winner of the third at the top of the lane but just didn't seem to want to go by and settled for a close third.

Thursday - Race 6 - Mdn 50000, (S), 2yo, 6f - #6 No Nukes (6-1)   No Nukes made a very good physical impression before his maiden special weight unveiling here July 29, but he just never looked comfortable in the slightly muddy going (video). He started climbing and spinning his wheels after showing a bit of early interest, and I think he deserves another chance over what will hopefully be a dry surface. The    dark bay was a $4,500 FTKOCT yearling RNA, but brought $35,000 after breezing a decent-looking :10 3/5 at Fasig-Tipton Midlantic. It seems likely that there’s more talent there than he showed on debut, and the drop in class can’t hurt--considering No Nukes’s purchase price and these purses, it definitely isn’t a white flag type move. Play: $20 Win. Alternate: Race 3 - $20 Win on #7 Gombey Dancer. Bankroll: $890 - Record: 20-2-2-4.

Sherack: Wednesday - Much to my liking, She Be Bunny was ridden aggressively by Rosario and enjoyed a clear lead through fractions of :23.50 and :47.80, but had nothing left in the stretch and folded to finish a disappointing seventh.

Thursday - Race 11 - Msw, (S), 3yo/up, f/m, 1mT - #7 Jennys Creek (20-1)   Taking a swing on a horse that I added to my rapidly growing stable mail watch (149 horses strong at the moment) following her turf bow at the Spa July 28. Completely ignored at 67-1 going 5 1/2 furlongs versus a similar bunch that day, Jennys Creek stumbled at the start and quickly lost valuable positioning over a course playing extremely kind to front runners. She began to make a decent middle move from ninth into a sharp :22 1/5 opening quarter while riding the rails on the turn for home, but couldn’t keep the momentum rolling once angled out for her run. While she failed to gain any ground on the top three--including the very sharp wire-to-wire winner Subtle--she did have 3 1/2 lengths on the fifth-place finisher to her credit. Jennys Creek has every right to move forward with that one under her belt, and the stretch to a mile should help the cause as well. It’s been an unusually quiet season for the very capable Carlos Martin barn, but his horses have been performing pretty decent at this meeting so far (13-1-5-0). Wouldn’t be surprised at all if Jennys Creek steps up and sneaks into the mix at a huge price over a course playing a lot more even now following last weekend’s heavy rain. Play: $14 Win (Turf Only). Alternate: Race 8: $25 Win on #2 Dan and Sheila. Bankroll: $1,266.80 - Record: 23-6-4-2.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 23

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DiDonato: Monday - It was hard to believe that Quick Flip went off at 12-1 in the Coronation Cup S. considering that it seemed like everyone on the planet liked her, but she ran like she should have been 120-1.  

Wednesday - Race 3 - Msw, 5 1/2f, 3yo/up - #4 Curve Ball (10-1)
   I’ll be honest, I don’t know if I’ve ever had less interest in a Saratoga card than this one. The races seem competitive enough, but they’re just not the types of races that I normally look to bet. I’ll tread lightly and wait for the quality to pick back up after this mid-meet lull. In the third, favorites Wild Target and Rockin Boogie are a combined 14-0-7-3. Their best races tower over this field, but neither seems to have much interest in graduating. I’m looking for a fresh face to jump up and pull off the upset and landed on Curve Ball. Unveiled for $20K by Wayne Catalano here July 25, the bay put in a nice late weaving move to finish third, beaten a nose for second. She was obviously facing weaker, but sharp conditioner Dominic Galluscio saw fit to put in a claim off no prior race form and now sends Happy Horse Stables’s new acquisition on a major class climb. He has decent stats in most of the relevant categories, and has been having a stellar Saratoga meet. Among Galluscio’s wins at the stand was a 14-1 off-the-claim score. Curve Ball should get a bit of pace to close into and could jump up and beat a pair of favorites who might not put up much of a fight. Play: $15 Win. Bankroll: $905 - Record: 19-2-2-3.

Sherack: Monday - Knock Rock (11-1) was taken out of his game after lunging at the break, but still ran a big one while showing a new dimension, rallying from the back to finish third--beaten only a nose for second--with a very wide trip, too. Already can’t wait to bet him back next time.

Wednesday - Race 2 - Md 25000, 3yo/up, f/m, 1mT - #9 She Be Bunny (6-1)
   Hmmm... DiDonato hates the card, and I have at least four races that I’m looking forward to fire away on. Can’t be a bad sign for me...
   I was immediately drawn to the second race to play against the two morning-line favorites--Crypto Kitten and Accent--and it didn’t take long for me to land on She Be Bunny. The dark bay made her first three starts in maiden special weight company for trainer Wayne Catalano in Kentucky, and ran a pretty good race at first asking over Keeneland’s Polytrack in April. She Be Bunny was fast enough that day to race right with the fleet Jamaican Smoke through fractions of :22 1/5 and :46 1/5 before tiring in the stretch to finish fourth. She switched up the tactics to rally from seventh to repeat that performance at Churchill May 12, but offered little in her next start beneath the Twin Spires, reporting home a well-beaten seventh going seven furlongs in June. Transferred to Eoin Harty and switched to the grass for the first time at Arlington, She Be Bunny set an uncontested lead (not quite sure why the fractions are unavailable), but got a tad leg weary late (rightfully so stretching from seven furlongs to 1 1/8m), and crossed the line a very respectable third in a 10-horse field. Love the turn back to a mile here and she picks up Joel Rosario, who certainly knows a thing or two about riding a speed horse. If she can clear Chessrate, I will be waiting in line to cash my tickets before they hit the backstretch. Play: $30 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 7 - $20 Win on #8 Double the Energy. Alternate 2: Race 6 - $20 Win on #1 Writingonthewall. Bankroll: $1,296.80 - Record: 22-6-4-2.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 22

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - In the sixth, Distortion (8.9-1) was better but still very green, and faded to fifth. At least I picked up another $10 on Sherack.   

Monday - Race 9 - Coronation Cup S. - #5 Quick Flip (15-1)
   There isn't much speed in this event compared to most turf sprint stakes, and Quick Flip should find herself on or near the lead as she tries the lawn for the first time. Purchased privately after being entered and scratched out of a $50,000 starter optional claimer Aug. 2 that I'm not sure how she was eligible for, last December's Sandpiper S. winner looks to regain the form she had at two now for Eddie Kenneally--she was previously with Terri Pompay. Kenneally boasts excellent numbers in the relevant categories, including an outrageous 11-for-25 ($6.30 ROI) record with non-debuting first time turfers sprinting over the past five years (courtesy DRF Formulator). Quick Flip is by good turf sprint sire Speightstown and is a half to MSW turf sprinter Stormin' Lyon. Play: $26 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 6 - $21 Win on #8 Double Mint. Bankroll: $931 - Record: 18-2-2-3.

Sherack: Sunday - Canadian invader Dan the Tin Man chased a very hot early pace and never factored in the Saratoga Special.

Today - Race 5 - Clm 25000B, 3yo/up, 1 1/16mT - #4 Knock Rock (15-1)
   How great would it be to stick it to DiDonato twice with his old friend Knock Rock? The Scott Schwartz colorbearer clearly loves the lawn at the Spa, and his overdue wire-to-wire July 25 win came back with a very legit 74 Beyer. Needed 15 tries to break his maiden, but wouldn’t be shocked at all if he put them back-to-back at a big price. Play: $14 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 1 - $14 Win on #4 Rockstar Life. Bankroll: $1,310.80 - Record: 21-6-4-1.

Showdown at the Spa: Day 21

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - All scratched again yesterday, but I guess I was asking for it by selecting turfers... Hoping I can let Sherack punch himself out a little bit before I make my big move.

Today - Race 6 - Msw, f, 2yo, 6f - #3 Distortion (8-1)
   Distortion had about as nightmarish a debut (video) as a horse can have, but might actually have some talent if she can work out the mental part. Bet to 6-1 when unveiled in Kauai Katie's opening day romp, the $300,000 KEESEP yearling was off extremely slow and lagged at the back of the pack early. She bolted at the head of the lane, completely going out of the video picture and probably spotting the rest of the field what? 20 lengths? It's hard to really quantify that sort of trouble but, somehow, she got going again and even passed one rival to be beaten only 25 3/4 lengths by the winner. The daughter of Misty Rosette (Stormin Fever), two-for-two with a stakes win as a juvenile before adding a Grade III win and GI Test S. placing at three, now gets blinkers, which she desperately needs. Zito is 4-for-12 with a $6.76 ROI over the past year with maidens adding blinkers for the first time (stat courtesy DRF Formulator) and he could pad those stats if Distortion has learned form her debut. Play: $20 Win. Alternate 1: Race 7 - $20 Win on #3 Atlantic Dream (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 11 - $20 Win on #5 Dan the Tin Man. Bankroll: $951 - Record: 17-2-2-3.

Sherack: Saturday - Corporate Jungle was a clear-cut second-best to the very impressive Wise Dan in the Fourstardave...Convinced that a former president’s eyes will start blinking from finally seeing daylight once DiDonato takes some money out of his wallet to make a wager.

Today - Race 11 - GII Saratoga Special S., 2yo, 6 1/2f - #5 Dan the Tin Man (8-1)
   Canadian invader Dan the Tin Man should be taken very seriously here. Thought highly enough of to debut in the Victoria S. June 16, the dark bay showed some early interest before tiring down the lane to finish a well-beaten fourth. Drawn on the rail for the second straight time while adding blinkers in a 5 1/2-furlong Woodbine maiden special weight July 8, Dan the Tin Man raced in tight quarters early, took over when ready, and dropped the hammer in the stretch to score by five impressive lengths, good for a very respectable 77 Beyer. Trainer Ricky Griffith is quickly becoming one of the best young trainers in the game with his 2-year-olds, and Dan the Tin Man can be any kind. If his five-furlong move in :59 4/5 over the Woodbine training track in late July is any indication, the Debmar Stables colorbearer should handle dirt just fine. Javier signed on to ride is certainly an added plus. Play: $30 Win. Alternate 1: Race 4 - $14 Win on #9 Slamm’n Lou. Alternate 2: Race 2 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #2 Belongs to Dixie. Bankroll: $1,340.80 - Record: 20-6-4-1