Belmont Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

   Horseplayers, investors and other types of gamblers often place too much emphasis on trends that seem pertinent but are not. When one bets on red in roulette because it has come out the past five spins, that's what we call the gambler's fallacy--each spin, or hand or race featuring disparate players or factors is its own entity, undetermined by and unrelated to past events. In racing, we've seen supposed un-buckable trends broken in recent years because what was perceived as causally determined by real and relevant factors was probably simply variance or randomness. If this notion holds merit, perhaps we should simply ignore the past 11 failed Triple Crown attempts and hand over the GI Belmont S. trophy to I'll Have Another (Flower Alley)--he certainly would be a deserving winner. It shouldn't matter that Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin, or that Smarty Jones couldn't quite go that far or that Big Brown had a shoe issue, didn't like the weather or just failed to show up. But it does, because the Belmont isn't like other races.
   For all the factors that make an impact on every race every day--pace dynamics, traffic, bias, etc.--the Belmont has a set of additional factors almost all its own. The quirky distance that has become completely irrelevant in the modern American sport, the short turnaround from the Preakness and the Derby and the large target that a Triple Crown aspirant has on his back are tiny roadblocks in and of themselves, but when combined they present a major hurdle. In wagering, it all comes down to price, and while no rational person would deny that I'll Have Another has proven up to this point to be the best runner in this field by a large margin, you simply can't do anything but play against him at less than even money. We'd all like to see a deserving Triple Crown winner, though it certainly won't be the sport's saving grace that some hope it might, but to bet on it would be a mistake that would leave some value on the table.

Paynter stretches his legs at Belmont
Horsephotos

   I'm going with Paynter (Awesome Again) on top mainly because he's the one horse in this race who could potentially prove more talented than the favorite. I'll Have Another did beat Paynter by 3 3/4 lengths in the GI Santa Anita Derby when the latter was fourth, but the Zayat colorbearer was coming off just a 5 1/2-furlong debut. He then turned back for Churchill's one-mile GIII Derby Trial S. and dug in well in the slop to be second after contesting a pace that was 10 points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Paynter earned a revised Beyer Speed Figure of 100 for that effort--none of I'll Have Another's other challengers have reached the century mark. The $325,000 KEESEP yearling wasn't done climbing the Beyer scale, however, as he earned a 106 for a 5 3/4-length allowance romp on the Preakness undercard. He faced little adversity and/or resistance in that race, but did everything that was asked of him and comes into this race relatively fresh compared to those who have already competed in one or two Triple Crown events. Seasoning is certainly the main concern for Paynter--it's possible that he doesn't have the foundation to get this demanding distance off just a four-race career that started in February--but perhaps his stout pedigree will help him. The bay is the son of a major route influence in Awesome Again out of a full-sister to Tiznow and Budroyale, both runners who excelled at 10 furlongs.
   I'll also use two back-ups in my attempt to beat I'll Have Another that I fear could very well turn out to be trap horses because of their late-running styles, but who could benefit if Paynter does too much early. Dullahan (Even the Score) hung a bit in the Derby, but he has looked exceptional working and galloping over the track since he's been in New York. He came into the GI Blue Grass S. the same way, and certainly gives the impression that more distance can only be to his advantage. I was extremely high on Street Life (Street Sense) after his graduation and subsequent victory in the Big A's Broad Brush S. He has shown such a lack of early speed in his last two races, however, that he's forfeited any chance of victory. I was ready to sign the divorce papers with Street Life last time after his third in the GII Peter Pan S. from out of the clouds behind a quick pace, but I spoke with trainer Chad Brown last week (click here for TDN story) and he made some interesting and logical points that have convinced me to give Street Life one more chance, albeit not as my main play.
   I've voiced my doubts about Union Rags (Dixie Union) a number of times here and nothing has changed. I'll change my tune when he runs a fast race, though I do think the rider change to John Velazquez should allow the good-looking bay to relocate some of the speed he had as a 2-year-old. I'm not sure that'll help him get the distance, however.

Now for some undercard thoughts...

GI Manhattan H. - Hudson Steele (Johannesburg) couldn't have had an easier trip than the ground-saving pocket journey he enjoyed last time in the GII Dixie S., and his pedigree doesn't scream 10 furlongs. I'll look to beat him with Desert Blanc (GB) (Desert Style {Ire}), who kept superior company in Europe last year (Cirrus des Aigles, Casamento, etc.) at distances such as this one. He was completely left at the break against several of these foes in the 8 1/2-furlong GIII Fort Marcy S. last time, but recovered nicely to be second despite losing plenty of ground throughout. The Chad Brown trainee hasn't shown tons of speed in the past, but I have a feeling that the always pace conscious Ramon Dominguez might look to steal this one. 6-1 would be a gift. I'll also spread with some others, including longshots Al Khali (Medaglia d'Oro), who I've always been a sucker for and who seems best suited to this sort of distance and a turf course; and Omayad (Chi), a Chilean superstar who was clearly prepping last time in a one-mile Hollywood allowance.

GII Woody Stephens S. - Bourbon Courage (Lion Heart) could not have been more impressive in his first two starts, but he disappointed a bit when fourth in the GIII Derby Trial S. That race came after a deluge-induced delay at Churchill, however, and the bay traveled as if he despised the slop. A return to his best makes him very much the horse to beat, especially at a trip that may be better for him than a flat mile. I'm also interested in Il Villano (Pollard's Vision), whose Chick Lang S. score (99 Beyer) is hard to argue with; and Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones), who may show more outside of New Mexico this time off the trainer change. This is definitely a race to go price hunting.

GI Just a Game S. - Winter Memories (El Prado {Ire}) is undoubtedly a very nice horse from a nice family, but she's a perpetual underlay. For whatever reason--maybe her running style that gives the illusion that she's overcome adversity when she's actually had an easy trip or her grey color--she's always overbet. There is absolutely no way she should be half or a third the price of Hungry Island (More Than Ready), who has beaten her before and whose win in the GII Distaff Turf Mile was superior to Winter Memories's GIII Beaugay S. score. I do think that last time was the time to have Hungry Island, however, so I'll also include pace players Wallis (GB) (King's Best) and Tapitsfly (Tapit) as well as Sylvestris (Ire) (Arch), who was extremely visually impressive last time in a local seven-furlong optional claimer.

Race 4 - Turf MSW - Ruthless Alley (Flower Alley) ran huge in his lone turf try when dueling through hot splits before settling for third. He should get clear here, and is a very likely winner relative to his odds. He'll probably be the overlay of the day at 8-1 or better.

Guest Post: Time Flies

By Sarah Fishback

It is hard to believe that I have already been in New Jersey for nearly two weeks; the adage `time flies when you are having fun’ really does apply. It feels like I have barely scratched the surface of what the area has to offer. I am hoping to do a bit more exploring in the near future; I know the few weekends I have here are not enough to discover everything, but hopefully enough to be able to see the highlights. I think I am most excited to head to Belmont on Saturday in hopes of witnessing history.

I have been able to see many incredible races during my short time in the Darley Flying Start program so far including the Irish Champion Stakes, Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, British Champions Day and the Kentucky Derby. The build-up to the Belmont Stakes may trump the anticipation I had for these other incredible races mainly because of the history of the race itself and the possibilities it holds, as well as the small personal connection I have to one of the horses.

While I will be cheering for I’ll Have Another to finally break the Triple Crown streak, I will also be rooting for Paynter. Not based on his prior form, which is impressive, but rather because he is one of the first yearlings I ever worked with at a sale. I had worked with the yearlings on our family’s thoroughbred farm, but never in a sales environment--especially a busy one like Keeneland. Paynter, or Tizzy as I called him thanks to his dam’s name, was always a professional and unflappable with the antics going on around him. He became such a personal favorite that I stayed late in order to see how he sold despite having to be at work early the next morning. I have followed his career from a distance and am excited to witness him run in the Belmont. I must admit, though, it will be bittersweet if he does win.

Paynter at Keeneland in 2010(Candice Chavez)

I have experienced this type of attachment to the Triple Crown before. The last time, though, I did not have a close personal connection to the horse, I was just a neighbor. I have been lucky enough to grow up in the heart of horse country and live my entire life just down the street from numerous champions. One of those champions was Victory Gallop, who ran in the Prestonwood colors during his racing career. In the 1998 installment of the Triple Crown, Real Quiet and Victory Gallop were the sparing partners. Real Quiet had beaten Victory Gallop in the first 2 legs of the race for the crown, despite my 10-year-old lungs cheering as loud as they could for Victory Gallop. Then in the Belmont, he just nipped Real Quiet by a nose, much to the dismay of racing fans. As much as I would have liked to see the drought end, I was excited to say I lived down the street from the farm that he represented. Then, there had only been 20 years since Affirmed did what now seems nearly impossible.

                                                                  1998 Belmont Stakes

Fourteen years later, we are still waiting. While time has been flying during my time here in New Jersey, that saying does not apply to the wait for a new Triple Crown winner. My sister was just over a year old when Affirmed accomplished the feat in 1978. She now has three children, the youngest of which is almost a year old. While she was too young to remember the race, she can say she was alive when it was last won. A new generation of racing fans will hopefully get to say they were around when the drought was broken. I hope I will be able to say I was there.

-- Sarah Fishback is a first year trainee on the Darley Flying Start course.

Guest Post: My Day at the Derby

By Kelsey Riley

During the last two years on the Darley Flying Start program, I have been very fortunate to attend most of the world’s best races. I have seen the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Stakes, the Melbourne Cup, the Hong Kong International race meeting, and the Dubai World Cup. But as I stood amongst a crowd of 130,000 at Epsom Downs on Saturday while Coolmore’s Camelot charged to victory in the Epsom Derby, I felt like I was witnessing something truly spectacular.

With his resounding victory Camelot became just the third horse in 23 years to take the English classic double of the 2000 Guineas and the Derby. His five-length winning margin erased any doubts of stamina or class dominance, and he is now poised, if his connections please, to pursue the rare distinction of England’s Triple Crown in the St. Leger Stakes on September 15.

Epsom Downs: Home of the Derby

The English Triple Crown has not been claimed since the great Nijinsky in 1970, and has largely gone out of fashion since, with few 2000 Guineas winners attempting the Derby or St. Leger. Only two horses since 1989 have completed the Guineas/Derby double, and most of the top three-year-olds these days bypass the St. Leger in favour of more glamorous contests like the Arc. If there is to be any horse to buck the trends and go for Triple Crown glory, you would think it would have to be Camelot. Having achieved nearly every major milestone in European racing, Coolmore have little to lose by trying.

Camelot's trainer Aidan O'Brien 

While world heavyweight Frankel remains the darling of European racing, I think Camelot would be in a position to nab that title should he win the St. Leger. Even by simply starting in the race, he would undoubtedly draw massive mainstream attention to racing, something we all want. As with all major stars of the turf, there is already big talk happening in the days following the Derby, and some are speculating a matchup with Frankel at the end of the year. Or, maybe he could come to America and hook up with I’ll Have Another in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Longshot, yes, but isn’t this a sport of dreams?  

Coolmore's Astrology being saddled
for the Derby. He finished third.

My day at the Derby ranked right up there with the best race meetings I have attended. The atmosphere was electric from start to finish, no doubt helped by The Queen’s Diamond Jubilee celebrations, which kicked off at Epsom before the first race. With the monarch herself in attendance, a large crowd turned out for the festivities, which included an elaborate infield carnival. Before the main attraction, patrons were treated to a showing of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf winner St. Nicholas Abbey in the G1 Coronation Cup. The son of Montjeu (like Camelot) turned the race into a procession under Joseph O’Brien, providing a sneak preview of what was to come in the Derby. Speaking of young Joseph, I can’t express how much I admire the 19-year-old. He has shown to have a cool head and confident yet capable style in some of the most pressure packed situations in the sport. This was accentuated by his flawless ride on Camelot around what is regarded as one of the world’s most challenging racecourses. While he is no doubt helped by his family tree (father Aidan is Coolmore’s trainer), he would never have reached the level he has without loads of hard work and ability.

Camelot walking the parade ring
before the Derby

Credit must also be given to second and third-place finishers, Main Sequence and Astrology, who both ran huge races to hit the board. Astrology, another Coolmore charge, made all the running for his stablemate Camelot. For a few strides it looked as if the son of Galileo may have stolen the race from his stablemate, but in the end Camelot was too strong for him, and he was just nipped by Main Sequence, a son of American sprint champion Aldebaran, for second. Bonfire, the second choice, looked spectacular in the paddock but got worked up in the warm up and failed to factor. 

Needless to say, my day at the Derby was one to savour and remember. I hope these photos capture a bit of the excitement and atmosphere. I would certainly recommend any racing fan make the trip to England for the Epsom Derby.

Aidan O'Brien brushes Camelot before he heads to the track

Derby second place finisher Main Sequence

Derby second choice Bonfire

A packed Epsom Downs grandstand

Camelot and Joseph O'Brien return victorious

-- Kelsey Riley is a second year trainee on the Darley Flying Start program. She will join the TDN staff in July.

Guest Post: Is 2012 the Year of the Triple Crown?

By Kelsey Riley

The countdown is on for I’ll Have Another and his loyal legion of fans. On June 9, the plucky chestnut will attempt to become American racing’s 12^th Triple Crown winner, and the first since Affirmed in 1978. The press is awash with opinions on whether the son of Flower Alley will complete the elusive hat trick, and while I am not here to throw my speculations into the fire, I would like to point out that the Triple Crown has been trending in racing around the world in 2012.

America isn’t the only nation with Triple Crown fever. England caught a raging case of it when Coolmore’s undefeated colt Camelot ran away with the English 2000 Guineas on May 5. The son of the late great Montjeu has subsequently been installed an overwhelming odds-on choice for this Saturday’s Epsom Derby. He will take on eight other colts over Epsom’s uniquely challenging course while jumping up to a mile-and-a-half for the first time. While this seems a daunting task, a great many European racing pundits have unwavering faith in the star colt. Shortly after Camelot won the Guineas, gossip grew that the Aidan O’Brien charge may make an attempt at the Triple Crown. Believe it or not, England has experienced a longer Triple Crown drought than America. The English Triple Crown (the 2000 Guineas, the Epsom Derby, and the St. Leger) has not been won since Nijinsky swept the series in 1970. In fact, the English Triple Crown has gone rather out of fashion. It is a rare occurrence for a horse to attempt it, and many Guineas winners will bypass the Derby itself in favour of shorter contests. Only two horses have doubled up in the Guineas and Derby since 1970: Nashwan in 1988 and Sea the Stars in 2009. In turn, the St. Leger has lost its lustre, and has not been a significant target for top three-year-olds in a number of years. Although Sea the Stars won the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2009, his connections opted for a schedule that included the Juddmonte International, the Irish Champion Stakes, and the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Coolmore has yet to indicate their plans for Camelot, and while there is doubt over whether he will even get his chance at the Triple Crown, we can dream.

The dream has already come true for Australian racing fans this year, as Pierro became the first horse in eight years (sixth in history) to sweep Australia’s two-year-old Triple Crown of the Golden Slipper, Sires’ Produce, and Champagne Stakes. The undefeated son of Lonhro has serious star quality, and while we’re dreaming, who’s to say he won’t go on next year to win that country’s three-year-old Triple Crown, which consists of the Randwick Guineas, Rosehill Guineas, and AJC Australian Derby? That trio has been won by just four horses, but the most recent winner was Pierro’s paternal grandsire, Octagonal. Pierro has the pedigree to go a route of ground and to improve with age, so it's exciting to think of how good he could be.

Pierro winning the Champagne Stakes

Another nation that has tasted the excitement of the Triple Crown this year is Singapore. Super Easy completed the sweep on May 18 when he won the Singapore Guineas, remaining undefeated in 10 starts including the Three-Year-Old Sprint and the Three-Year-Old Classic. If his courageous win in the Guineas wasn’t enough, the New Zealand-bred’s form was justified when Ato, a horse he has beaten twice, got up to win the Krisflyer International Sprint (G1), the fourth race in the Global Sprint Challenge, last weekend.

Across the map in Japan, three-year-old filly Gentildonna continued her dominance of the female sophomore division when she took the May 20 Japanese Oaks by an easy five lengths. The Sunday Racing colour-bearer was following up on her win in the Japanese 1000 Guineas on April 8, and she looked to be the real deal while stepping from 1600 metres to 2400 metres. The Japanese fillies Triple Crown consists of the Oka Sho (1000 Guineas), Yushun Himba (Oaks), and the Shuka Sho in October. The series was won in 2010 by Apapane. If any horse has the genetics to complete the sweep it is Gentildonna. Her sire Deep Impact took the colts’ version in 2005.

Gentildonna winning the Japanese Oaks.
Courtesy Japan Racing Association

Whether or not it influences anyone’s opinion on I’ll Have Another’s Triple Crown chances, the topic is clearly trending in racing around the world this year. It is interesting to observe how the various Triple Crowns are perceived in different countries, and it is important to note that some of these series have been altered over the years, or have otherwise become insignificant. Regardless, it is exciting to see so many equine stars around the world. If anyone knows of any current Triple Crown stories that I haven’t listed, please share them.       

-- Kelsey Riley is a second year trainee on the Darley Flying Start program. She will join the TDN staff in July.

Guest Post: Welcome to New Jersey

My name is Sarah Fishback and I am lucky enough to be a member of the 2011-2013 class of Darley Flying Start. Over the next 5-weeks I will be completing my American work placement with the Thoroughbred Daily News.

Following an intense week of learning the ins and outs of balance sheets and income statements and the financial implications they are attached to it was finally time to begin my much-anticipated work placement. As excited as I was about heading off I was dreading packing and the long drive ahead.

Daunted by the thought of driving 12 hours straight from Kentucky on Memorial Day weekend I decided to make a stop in Pennsylvania on my way to Red Bank, New Jersey. This worked out quite well since my cousin’s son was being baptized on Sunday morning at our family church near Philadelphia. Following a morning spent with family and horses I got back on the road for the final short leg of my journey. Arriving in Red Bank I found myself in a far more picturesque version of New Jersey than had been led to believe by MTV, HBO, and Bravo television. I had been to different areas of the state before but really did not know what to expect from Red Bank itself.

During my time here I am lucky enough to be sharing an apartment with the son of a TDN employee and his girlfriend. Luckily for GPS and John’s good directions I managed to find the apartment with only a few confused moments and no u-turns, which for me is an impressive feat.

The one thing that struck me the most on arrival was the summer heat, which was intensified by the lack of air conditioning in the apartment. They had just moved in a few days prior and had yet to have a day off to remedy this sticky situation. I received the warmest welcome of all from Nicole’s dog Indigo, who may be as sweet as my own dog. Luckily once the sun went down so did the temperature and the humidity.

Deciding it was cool enough to venture outside John, Nicole and his younger sister and her fiancé gave me a brief tour of Red Bank on our way to dinner. Pointing out important landmarks such as the cupcake shop and where the film Dogma was supposed to be based on, as well as the main street of Red Bank, which was surprisingly quiet and peaceful according to them. I was most impressed by the fact that I could walk from the apartment to the office when it came time to start work on Tuesday morning.





Red Bank, NJ
(TDN's office is right by the orange flag) 



Monday was spent running errands and getting acclimated to my new home away from home and also included a visit to Monmouth Racecourse. While plenty of people spend Memorial Day on the beach there was still a nice crowd on hand for the races. This to me was a much better alternative than roasting on a crowded beach. Nicole gave me a tour of the facilities and introduced me to one of the local restaurants at lunch. All in all New Jersey was beginning to grow on me. A relaxing evening spent at the apartment allowed me plenty of time to rest up and prepare for my first day at the TDN.

My original plan of walking to the office for work soon changed when I awoke to hot and humid weather and was already sweating prior to leaving the apartment. Luckily I found my way and a parking space easily, again an impressive feat for my directionally challenged self.

I have now settled into my new 5-week home and am looking forward to what this time will hold including many learning experiences and hopefully a new Triple Crown winner.

--Sarah Fishback is a first year trainee on the Darley Flying Start course.

Guest Blog: When is an accidental death acceptable?

by Mark Cramer

We can ask this question about race horses and we can ask it about human beings. Perhaps we can learn something by comparing our attitude to accidental deaths on the race track with how we accept deaths on the road. If you bear with me, you will see in the conclusion why this comparison can be made.

According to The Jockey Club’s Equine Injury Database, there were 1.92 thoroughbred deaths per 1,000 starts between November 2008 and December 2011. Separated by surface, there were 2.07 deaths on dirt, 1.28 deaths on synthetic and 1.67 deaths on grass. Filtered by tracks, some tracks do better than others. Keeneland’s website states that their track has half the number of deaths per thousand in the “all surface” category. Dirt, of course, is not applicable. Keeneland had 0.88 deaths on synthetic and 1.17 on turf, per thousand starts.

Based on these or other similar stats, we can make choices about which surfaces are more acceptable to race horses on.

I have not been able to find stats on horse deaths which compare horses racing on pain-killing medication versus horses without pain killers, but the death rate appears to be significantly higher in countries where horses are allowed to race with pain killers. If this proves true, we could choose to ban race-day pain killers.

The point is that we have information available that could help us make choices that would significantly reduce the percentage of race-day thoroughbred deaths.

But similarly, we could provide choices to human beings that would reduce on-the-road deaths.

For example, according to a Dartmouth study, there are 11.7 deaths per billion passenger miles by car while there are 0.88 deaths per billion passenger miles on Amtrak. The difference is significant. But just as horses cannot choose the surface they race on, in most regions of North America, human beings cannot choose the surface they travel on, because there is no train service.

Lest you doubt the above Dartmouth stat, here’s another more convincing one. The French high-speed train (the TGV) has been in operation since 1981 and there has not been a single travel fatality. Not one death by train! We could choose to have high speed trains in places like Texas and Florida, but we choose not to offer a travel alternative.

Human travelers in places without trains are like thoroughbred runners: they have no choice of surface.

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), train commuters walked an average of 30% more steps per workday than car commuters. The CDC recommends a daily physical activity standard of 10,000 steps; 40.4% of train commuters walked at least 10,000 steps while only 14.8% of car commuters walked that much. Train commuters end up with a higher life expectancy than car commuters.

In conclusion, for both human beings and race horses, we choose not to reduce death rates, even though we could do so. This suggests that our choice to allow race horses to die needlessly is not really a question of our attitude about animals but of our attitude about life itself.

Mark Cramer is the author of the crime novel Tropical Downs and the bicycle racing chronical Handicapping on the Road. He lives in Paris.

Preakness and Undercard Thoughts

--Brian DiDonato

GI Preakness S. - I'll be honest, I have nothing particularly insightful to say about the Preakness other than that I think those who are taking an extremely negative view on Bodemeister (Empire Maker) are trying too hard. I doubt anyone could seriously argue against the notion that he was much the best in the Derby, so I guess it comes down to an expected regression. Personally, I'm not one who subscribes to the bounce theory for the most part, and I doubt Bodemeister's a candidate for such a thing. His connections have been around the block enough times to know whether or not a very valuable horse like this with immense potential can handle short rest following a tough effort, and I just can't see them running Bodemeister back without every indication that he's doing very well. After all, they certainly didn't have to run here. They could've waited for the Belmont (a race which I think Bode might be even tougher in) or regrouped for a summer campaign. The presence of Trinniberg was the only thing that got Bodemeister beat in the Derby, so without him or another comparable speed present, I have a hard time envisioning anything but an easy lead for the Derby runner-up.

Bodemeister Galloping at Pimlico
Horsephotos

   If, somehow, the fractions do get too hot, it'll probably be I'll Have Another (Flower Alley) playing the antagonist out of a legitimate fear of letting Bodemeister get away. For that potential outcome, I'll use Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway) as my lone off-the-pace back-up in the pick four. He was just hopelessly wide in the Derby, and had every right to stop a bit late after making that eye-catching move. His prior form fits, and while I'm not crazy about the fact that he shipped back to California before coming to Maryland, I'm going to trust veteran Mike Harrington, who seems to be getting fed up with the media's second-guessing. All those rumors about Creative Cause's pre-Derby condition seem to have been pretty inaccurate, after all. For a trifecta or superfecta spicer-upper, I'll toss in Zetterholm (Silver Train), who overcame slow splits to win going away against New York-breds last time. He should be running late and is bred to get the distance on his dam's side.

Air Support   Coady Photography

GII Dixie S. - This is definitely a spread race, but I'll look to zone in mostly on a pair of runners in the 6-1 to 8-1 range. While Casino Host (Dynaformer) will take plenty of play for good reason, it's worth noting that Air Support (Smart Strike) bested him in last year's GII Virginia Derby and should be the better price of the two. He returned from a long break Apr. 7 in a Keeneland allowance that easily could have been a Grade II or III, and endured a wide, no-cover trip before fading to fifth. According to Trakus, he covered 24 feet more than winner Al Khali, which cuts the five-length gap between them at the wire more than in half. According to DRF Formulator, trainer Shug McGaughey boasts absolutely gaudy numbers second off the lay-off in graded turf routes--he's hitting at a 32% clip with a $3.60 ROI over the past five years.
   Trend (Sligo Bay {Ire}) took 10 starts to break his maiden, but he seemed to blossom down at Gulfstream this winter. He bested subsequent GIII Appleton S. winner Corporate Jungle in a Jan. 19 allowance before running second in a salty renewal of the GIII Canadian Turf S. Mar. 3. Showing more speed than usual in the Canadian, Trend dueled the very quick Little Mike into submission--that runner came back to upset the GI Turf Classic S. on Derby day. Third-place finisher Data Link returned to annex the GI Maker's 46 Mile S., benefitting from a troubled trip for Canadian winner Doubles Partner. Trend was second again in the Appleton, but from back off the pace--a jockey switch from the always-patient Julien Leparoux to Alex Solis for this could mean a more aggressive ride, which would prove key.

J W Murphy S. - I don't know what to make of Done Talking (Broken Vow) running in this spot. He never struck me as having a turf action, and it seems like a flat mile is probably a bit too sharp for him. I'm certainly not going to let him knock me out of anything but, believe it or not, I'm not picking him to win. I'd love to lock in 8-1 on Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller) right now. He pressed a very hot early pace last time (13 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale for the opening quarter) in the GIII Coolmore Lexington S. while three-wide in no-man's land, but still dug in to be third. Longshot winner All Squared Away and runner-up Summer Front both disappointed in subsequent efforts, but the also-rans, including fellow Murphy entrants Gold Megillah (Purim) and Skyring (English Channel) returned to run well. So did pacesetter Johannesbourbon, who was an unlucky runner-up on the turnback in Tuesday's Tom Ridge S. at Presque Isle. A better trip puts Hammers Terror right there on the wire in this very wide-open affair.