Was there a bias on Belmont day?

--Brian DiDonato

With a drying out strip on Saturday, many were surely keeping a close eye on how Big Sandy was playing leading up to the Belmont S. Let’s take a closer look at the trip and pace dynamics at play on the dirt throughout the card:

Click race number for chart, race details for video.

Race 1 - 6f Alw/OC - track condition: muddy (sealed) - 29-1 longshot Cay to Pomeroy set a pressured, but only slightly above-average pace from slightly off the rail and repelled several bids, but couldn’t hold off an impressive move from 10-1 Dehere of the Cat. The winner was in the two or three path early and swung far out into the center of the track in the stretch. Odds-on favorite Master Cip pressed the pace from the four path, but settled for third.

Race 2 - 7f Alw/OC - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Odea, a 7 3/4-length allowance romper in the mud two back, was bet down to 5-2 favoritism. From the inside, he set an above-average opening quarter of :22.41 (5 points above par on Moss Pace Figure scale), but slowed things down to :23.30 for his second quarter. Despite the breather, Odea finished last. Winner Integrity (3-1) pressed the pace in third from the three path, while Slan Abhaile chased from second and the two path and checked in third. Runner-up Bad Hombre was in the two or three path in midpack early and came widest of all in the lane.

Race 3 - 7f NYB MSW (off the turf) - track condition: muddy (sealed) - 12-1 Ah Gaga, who had never set the pace in any of her previous eight starts, was hard-ridden from the gate by new rider Mike Smith (eventual Belmont winner) to grab early command. She set a quick pace (:22.67 opening quarter--8 Moss points above par) from the two or three path and kept finding more to hold on. Perhaps trying to bear in slightly in the lane, Smith gave Ah Gaga plenty of left-handed encouragement and she drifted out, possibly herding some of her pursuers. Runner-up Concealed (5-1) stalked close while wide; third-place finisher Mononoke (13-1) pressed Ah Gaga from her inside.

Race 4 - 1m NYB MSW - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Second timer El Genio, who opened short and remained well below his 12-1 morning line at 5-1 at the off while adding blinkers and Lasix off a dull debut, set an above-average pace (+9 opening quarter, +5 half) along the rail. Can’t Catch Me Now (15-1), who had rarely shown speed in 12 previous efforts, pressed the pace while outside of El Genio, and ultimately wore him down in the lane to prevail by a half-length. Bernardo, who was also very well-bet down to 4-1 (15-1 morning line--scratching of 4-5 ML favorite obviously had impact on odds) tracked from the two path in midpack and angled out to finish a close third.

Race 5 - 1m MSW - track condition: muddy (sealed) - Tenth-time starter Moreno, who had run one solid race two back in an otherwise unspectacular career, was turning back 3/16 of a mile, switching back to dirt and adding blinkers. Given an 8-1 chance (15-1 ml) in a race that appeared on paper to have other speed, the Eric Guillot trainee (who broke through the gate before the start) controlled the pace throughout through an easy opening quarter and quick second quarter and reported home an easy 6 1/4-length winner. It was a merry-go-round affair where the top three traveled that way from start to finish.

Race 6 - Easy Goer S., 1 1/16m - track condition: good - Chalk Power Broker, a GISW at this distance who was coming off a sloppy-track allowance win at the trip, set an average pace with company while kept in the two path before drawing off to a 3 3/4-length tally. Runner-up Micromanage tracked from the pocket, was shuffled back while waiting for room on the turn, but came with a nice run up the inside to get second. Irsaal, midpack early and always wide, challenged Power Broker on the home turn, but was quickly denied by the winner and had to settle for third.

Race 7 - GII True North H., 6f - track condition: good (borderline fast) - Fast Bullet, part of a 4-5 Zayat entry, set an easy pace (:22.48 opening quarter 10 points below par, :45.16 half 7 points below par on Moss scale) from the two path and reported home an easy 2 1/2-length winner. He earned a 110 Beyer Speed Figure, a new career top by one point. Entry-mate Justin Phillip saved ground throughout from just off the pace and proved second best. The rest of the short field didn’t do much shifting from start to finish.

Race 9 - GII Woody Stephen S., 7f - track condition: fast - The freaky fast Let Em Shine did what was expected--he set an extremely quick pace (:21.99 opening quarter was 15 points above par, :44.73 half was 10 points above par--he was running 12 lengths faster than par at 7f for the opening quarter). He was able to save ground despite his far-outside draw, and understandably succumbed to his early exertions very late to be beaten only a length. Enjoying his second meltdown pace set-up in a row, winner Forty Tales was always very wide and came from second-to-last early. Runner-up Declan’s Warrior saved ground off the pace and tipped out, but was kept in slightly by the winner and had to angle back in between horses. Clearly Now, always fairly close and wide, didn’t do himself any favors by failing to switch leads and checked in third.

Race 11 - GI Belmont S., 1 1/2m - track condition: fast - I was among those who predicted a pace more like the Derby than the Preakness, and while that was the case, the actual result wasn’t. Palace Malice and Oxbow--who were part of that insane collapse in the Derby--were both wide here and just off crazy opening splits of :23.11 and :46.66 set by no-hoper Frac Daddy and somewhat surprisingly underbet Freedom Child. The half was 20 points above par pace figure-wise (compared to a similar +19 Derby half set by Palace Malice). While the actual pacesetters eventually dropped out to finish last and second-to-last, Oxbow and Palace Malice inherited the lead midway on the turn and were never seriously threatened by the closers, with Palace Malice--who did a little less of the dirty work--leading home the staggerfest. Favored Orb made an eye-catching move from well out of it, but flattened to be third. 

So was the track speed biased? It certainly appears that way--horses who were ridden aggressively early fared well and outran their odds on the early part of the card. The outside also seemed like the place to be (jockeys were pretty willing to lose ground and stay off the rail). Not much can be gleaned from the first two stakes that were run, as both were won by short-priced favorites who enjoyed fairly easy leads (especially Fast Bullet).

Things get much less straightforward for the Woody Stephens and Belmont, however. Absolutely extreme early paces in both those races presumably counteracted the bias (assuming it was still present), so it’s hard to really know how to treat performers from those two races.

Let Em Shine will obviously garner plenty of respect off of his brave performance in the Woody Stephens, and the pace was so off-the-charts that positive treatment would be justified despite how the track was playing--especially considering that he was down on the inside. Still, Let Em Shine no longer looks impervious to pace pressers, and I’d be willing to bet against him going forward with other quality speed signed on--especially at seven panels. I’ll also be very much against winner Forty Tales next time--his two stakes victories and his stakes runner-up finish have all come with extremely advantageous set-ups. Even if he ran against the grain Saturday, he made his move on what was likely the best part of the track.

I don’t want anybody coming out of the Belmont, frankly. The performances by Palace Malice and Oxbow were both impressive from a pace perspective and bias-aided at the same time, I wonder how each of them will come out of the Triple Crown. They were both up on two of the most extreme paces you’ll see and we’ve seen time and time again how the rigors of the Triple Crown impact its contestants. Orb has been exposed twice now, but he will always carry the “Derby winner” banner, which guarantees he will be overbet for the rest of his career.

Members of this sophomore crop seem destined to take turns beating each other for the rest of the year, and I look forward to some nice wagering opportunities in races like the Haskell and Travers. Micromanage interests me off his runner-up finish in the Easy Goer, and Normandy Invasion (who moved way too soon in the Derby) and Itsmyluckyday will have benefitted from freshenings.

Belmont Stakes Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

1. Frac Daddy - Pro: These connections did dead-heat for the win in last year’s Travers with impossible-to-have Golden Ticket, and conditioner Ken McPeek did upset the 2002 renewal of this with 70-1 shot Sarava. Con: Where are his good races? Hasn’t come close to running back to maiden romp in November and his second in the Arkansas Derby was a total clunk up job. Verdict: Not seeing it.

2. Freedom Child - Pro: His break-out romp in the Peter Pan last time was very impressive and he may be peaking at the right time. Has the ever-dangerous fresh face angle on his side and has looked good in the mornings. Con: The Peter Pan was run over a sloppy track, and while similar conditions are very possible Saturday, it’s probably best to look at that performance with at least a little skepticism. Pace may pose a serious problem, as on pace figures he appears likely to get himself in trouble early. Verdict: Wouldn’t toss completely, as he clearly has some talent and upside, but will only use defensively as the pace appears like it might do him in.

3. Overanalyze - Pro: Does have two graded stakes wins at 1 1/8 miles, and one race that’s close to fast enough. He may have had the sneakiest trip of anyone in the Derby while finishing 11th--was shuffled back to last on the far turn, but made a nice run in the lane despite additional traffic trouble. Con: His pedigree certainly doesn’t scream 1 1/2 miles, but another son of Dixie Union (who I completely tossed, partially because of his pedigree) did win the Belmont last year. Verdict: Have never been a fan of his at all and don’t think he’s anything special, but he fits the profile of a horse who could make some noise here and I’m willing to excuse his very obvious pedigree concerns because of past success at nine furlongs--especially at double-digit odds.

4. Giant Finish - Pro: He’d be a nice Big Apple Triple candidate. Con: He already missed the first leg of the Big Apple Triple last Saturday. Verdict: No.

5. Orb - Pro: The positives are pretty obvious for him--he should get pace again, he might get slop again, and he figures to love the distance. Con: The jury was still out on him a bit going into the Derby, and while most of us (myself included) were willing to buy the hype after that race, it seems we were much too forgiving of the dream pace set-up he and the other on-the-board finishers enjoyed. Now can you really take him as a favorite off that mediocre (at best) effort in the Preakness? Verdict: Think he’ll be an underlay, but he’s going to get very similar circumstances to those that helped him garner all the hype. Certainly can’t toss.

6. Incognito - Pro: Obviously bred for this, being by A.P. Indy (Belmont winner and sire of a Belmont winner) out of Octave, winner of the local GI CCA Oaks at 10 furlongs. Overcame a world of trouble to beat older (weak) optional claiming foes two back, and was simply never put in a position to win last time in the Peter Pan. It was really a perplexing ride--he was dragged far out of it and never allowed to run until it was much too late. The grey did fly home, however, and galloped out in front. A rider change can’t hurt. Con: Somewhat immature and may find his own trouble, plus he does need to run much faster. Morning impressions have been a bit negative. Verdict: I’m playing him--he’s super dirtied up trip wise and has the best pedigree in the race for 1 1/2 miles.

7. Oxbow - Pro: He finally put it all together last time, and earned a 106 Beyer Speed Figure vs. Orb’s 104 for the Derby. His stout pedigree is well-documented. Con: I know it’s been fashionable to call the pace Oxbow set in the Preakness “fair” rather than “slow,” but I’m not so sure--the Moss Pace Figures have the opening half five points below par. If that’s fair, it’s definitely on the slow side of fair. And isn’t the pace guaranteed to be faster this time? Can’t see Stevens taking back considering how well the horse ran when sent. Verdict: A classic “last time was the time” horse.

8. Midnight Taboo - Pro: Probably has upside considering how lightly raced he is. Dam is a half to the dam of Belmont winner and Horse of the Year Point Given. Con: May not have the foundation to go 12 furlongs just yet. Did have some traffic trouble when second in allowance company last time, but didn’t really seem to have the punch to get himself out of trouble. Verdict: Connections giving off a vibe that he’s running just to run, so hard to have much faith in him.

9. Revolutionary - Pro: Hasn’t been off the board in his seven-race career, and handled the slop fine last time in the Derby. His sire (War Pass) wouldn’t have gotten the Belmont distance, but he’s out of an Alabama winner and gets plenty of stamina from his dam’s side. Con: Was clearly third best in the Derby--covered less ground than both Orb and Golden Soul, and was simply out-kicked by a 34-1 shot. Hasn’t looked spectacular in the mornings. Verdict: Called him “the most likely winner” of the Derby and he ran ok, but now I’m tossing. Go figure.

10. Will Take Charge - Pro: Everyone saw the trouble he had in the Derby--was moving right with Orb before getting stopped by Verrazano. Is a very large horse with a grinding style that is conducive to Big Sandy and this race. Going third off the lay-off now after being trained up to the Derby. Con: Never did any running in the Preakness--just never really seemed to get going while well off the pace. Verdict: Using him again--this might be the race where he shows up at a huge price.

11. Vyjack - Pro: He’s a really nice horse up to about 1 1/16 miles. Was very wide in the Derby. Con: Has given zero indication that he wants to go this far. Verdict: Probably would win the Woody Stephens, but this is five furlongs farther.

12. Palace Malice - Pro: Obviously, you can’t take his Derby at face value considering the insane pace he set. Con: While he’s bred to run long, has always struck me as a horse with serious distance limitations. Everyone’s acting like he’s going to turn into Silky Sullivan losing the blinkers, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not again close to the pace, which figures to be legitimate. Verdict: He’ll ultimately prove better going much shorter than this--possibly on grass.

13. Unlimited Budget - Pro: Has never run a bad race, and her only loss last time in the Oaks came when she was close to a quick pace. Con: Still, runner-up Beholder was closer to that pace, and Unlimited Budget just didn’t show much kick. Not sure how much stamina she gets from the bottom half of her pedigree. Don’t buy the notion that the colts and fillies this year are evenly matched. Verdict: Nice horse, but probably the underlay of the race on the morning line at 8-1. Not using.

14. Golden Soul - Pro: Gave him a bit of a chance to clunk up and hit the board in the Derby, and he did. Should appreciate even more distance and might get identical circumstances here. Con: Did have a lot go his way in the Derby, and hard to take him at a much shorter price than he was last time. Verdict: No real reason he can’t hit the board again as this may have the makings of a Derby repeat, but expect him to find at least one better.

How I’m playing: Would like to be alive to as many as possible in here as this has chaos race written all over it. In the actual race, I’ll bet Incognito to win at what figures to be 20-1+. Will also play an exacta box of Incognito, Overanalyze and Will Take Charge. Will probably work in Orb and Golden Soul as well, but the Belmont’s a race to swing for the fences in, so I’ll be looking for a nice $800+ pay-out for every $2.

Belmont Day Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

   Horseplayers, investors and other types of gamblers often place too much emphasis on trends that seem pertinent but are not. When one bets on red in roulette because it has come out the past five spins, that's what we call the gambler's fallacy--each spin, or hand or race featuring disparate players or factors is its own entity, undetermined by and unrelated to past events. In racing, we've seen supposed un-buckable trends broken in recent years because what was perceived as causally determined by real and relevant factors was probably simply variance or randomness. If this notion holds merit, perhaps we should simply ignore the past 11 failed Triple Crown attempts and hand over the GI Belmont S. trophy to I'll Have Another (Flower Alley)--he certainly would be a deserving winner. It shouldn't matter that Spectacular Bid stepped on a safety pin, or that Smarty Jones couldn't quite go that far or that Big Brown had a shoe issue, didn't like the weather or just failed to show up. But it does, because the Belmont isn't like other races.
   For all the factors that make an impact on every race every day--pace dynamics, traffic, bias, etc.--the Belmont has a set of additional factors almost all its own. The quirky distance that has become completely irrelevant in the modern American sport, the short turnaround from the Preakness and the Derby and the large target that a Triple Crown aspirant has on his back are tiny roadblocks in and of themselves, but when combined they present a major hurdle. In wagering, it all comes down to price, and while no rational person would deny that I'll Have Another has proven up to this point to be the best runner in this field by a large margin, you simply can't do anything but play against him at less than even money. We'd all like to see a deserving Triple Crown winner, though it certainly won't be the sport's saving grace that some hope it might, but to bet on it would be a mistake that would leave some value on the table.

Paynter stretches his legs at Belmont
Horsephotos

   I'm going with Paynter (Awesome Again) on top mainly because he's the one horse in this race who could potentially prove more talented than the favorite. I'll Have Another did beat Paynter by 3 3/4 lengths in the GI Santa Anita Derby when the latter was fourth, but the Zayat colorbearer was coming off just a 5 1/2-furlong debut. He then turned back for Churchill's one-mile GIII Derby Trial S. and dug in well in the slop to be second after contesting a pace that was 10 points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Paynter earned a revised Beyer Speed Figure of 100 for that effort--none of I'll Have Another's other challengers have reached the century mark. The $325,000 KEESEP yearling wasn't done climbing the Beyer scale, however, as he earned a 106 for a 5 3/4-length allowance romp on the Preakness undercard. He faced little adversity and/or resistance in that race, but did everything that was asked of him and comes into this race relatively fresh compared to those who have already competed in one or two Triple Crown events. Seasoning is certainly the main concern for Paynter--it's possible that he doesn't have the foundation to get this demanding distance off just a four-race career that started in February--but perhaps his stout pedigree will help him. The bay is the son of a major route influence in Awesome Again out of a full-sister to Tiznow and Budroyale, both runners who excelled at 10 furlongs.
   I'll also use two back-ups in my attempt to beat I'll Have Another that I fear could very well turn out to be trap horses because of their late-running styles, but who could benefit if Paynter does too much early. Dullahan (Even the Score) hung a bit in the Derby, but he has looked exceptional working and galloping over the track since he's been in New York. He came into the GI Blue Grass S. the same way, and certainly gives the impression that more distance can only be to his advantage. I was extremely high on Street Life (Street Sense) after his graduation and subsequent victory in the Big A's Broad Brush S. He has shown such a lack of early speed in his last two races, however, that he's forfeited any chance of victory. I was ready to sign the divorce papers with Street Life last time after his third in the GII Peter Pan S. from out of the clouds behind a quick pace, but I spoke with trainer Chad Brown last week (click here for TDN story) and he made some interesting and logical points that have convinced me to give Street Life one more chance, albeit not as my main play.
   I've voiced my doubts about Union Rags (Dixie Union) a number of times here and nothing has changed. I'll change my tune when he runs a fast race, though I do think the rider change to John Velazquez should allow the good-looking bay to relocate some of the speed he had as a 2-year-old. I'm not sure that'll help him get the distance, however.

Now for some undercard thoughts...

GI Manhattan H. - Hudson Steele (Johannesburg) couldn't have had an easier trip than the ground-saving pocket journey he enjoyed last time in the GII Dixie S., and his pedigree doesn't scream 10 furlongs. I'll look to beat him with Desert Blanc (GB) (Desert Style {Ire}), who kept superior company in Europe last year (Cirrus des Aigles, Casamento, etc.) at distances such as this one. He was completely left at the break against several of these foes in the 8 1/2-furlong GIII Fort Marcy S. last time, but recovered nicely to be second despite losing plenty of ground throughout. The Chad Brown trainee hasn't shown tons of speed in the past, but I have a feeling that the always pace conscious Ramon Dominguez might look to steal this one. 6-1 would be a gift. I'll also spread with some others, including longshots Al Khali (Medaglia d'Oro), who I've always been a sucker for and who seems best suited to this sort of distance and a turf course; and Omayad (Chi), a Chilean superstar who was clearly prepping last time in a one-mile Hollywood allowance.

GII Woody Stephens S. - Bourbon Courage (Lion Heart) could not have been more impressive in his first two starts, but he disappointed a bit when fourth in the GIII Derby Trial S. That race came after a deluge-induced delay at Churchill, however, and the bay traveled as if he despised the slop. A return to his best makes him very much the horse to beat, especially at a trip that may be better for him than a flat mile. I'm also interested in Il Villano (Pollard's Vision), whose Chick Lang S. score (99 Beyer) is hard to argue with; and Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones), who may show more outside of New Mexico this time off the trainer change. This is definitely a race to go price hunting.

GI Just a Game S. - Winter Memories (El Prado {Ire}) is undoubtedly a very nice horse from a nice family, but she's a perpetual underlay. For whatever reason--maybe her running style that gives the illusion that she's overcome adversity when she's actually had an easy trip or her grey color--she's always overbet. There is absolutely no way she should be half or a third the price of Hungry Island (More Than Ready), who has beaten her before and whose win in the GII Distaff Turf Mile was superior to Winter Memories's GIII Beaugay S. score. I do think that last time was the time to have Hungry Island, however, so I'll also include pace players Wallis (GB) (King's Best) and Tapitsfly (Tapit) as well as Sylvestris (Ire) (Arch), who was extremely visually impressive last time in a local seven-furlong optional claimer.

Race 4 - Turf MSW - Ruthless Alley (Flower Alley) ran huge in his lone turf try when dueling through hot splits before settling for third. He should get clear here, and is a very likely winner relative to his odds. He'll probably be the overlay of the day at 8-1 or better.

Get Me To The Eighth Pole, Baby

--Andy Belfiore

   Before he gets to the starting gate for the GI Belmont S., Jesus Castanon might want to have a few words with Angel Cordero Jr. There has been a lot of talk that Castanon’s Belmont mount Shackleford (Forestry) will give it up like the Red Sox in September when he hits the long stretch at Big Sandy. Thirty-five years ago, that’s what they were saying about Bold Forbes. Cordero wasn’t listening.

   Bold Forbes was a top-drawer 2-year-old in 1975, winning five straight in Puerto Rico before heading to New York and tagging the Tremont and Saratoga Special onto his winning streak. Sidelined by bucked shins, he lost the first two starts of his comeback, but hit his best stride at the end of February 1976 and reeled off wins in the San Jacinto S. at Santa Anita and the Bay Shore S. at Aqueduct.

   But there was a lot of doubt about his stamina. Bold Forbes was by Irish Castle, who was quick enough to win the Hopeful at two, but went 0-for-9 at three and four. And he didn’t know the meaning of the word “rate.” The colt left the blocks like he was late for the bus, and there was no slowing him down til he hit the wire.

   He handled the nine furlongs of the Wood Memorial in track-record time, yet they still questioned if he could get a mile and a quarter in the Kentucky Derby. Bold Forbes answered that query with an in-your-face yes. Favored Honest Pleasure tested him early and charged at him late, but he couldn’t get by him, and Cordero’s “Puerto Rican Rolls-Royce” was draped in the blanket of roses (video).

   His headstrong ways did cost him in the Preakness--Bold Forbes and Honest Pleasure hooked up right out of the gate at Pimlico and scorched through six furlongs in 1:09 flat, besting the then-track record of 1:09 1/5. It is still the fastest three-quarters in Preakness history. Honest Pleasure spit it and beat just one home; Bold Forbes was gasping, but still managed to run third, beaten four lengths by Elocutionist.

Bold Forbes (red silks) breaks from the gate in the Belmont   Coglianese Photo

   Shaking off a badly grabbed quarter, Bold Forbes headed to Belmont Park. Honest Pleasure and Elocutionist both opted out of the final jewel in the Triple Crown, helping the Derby winner’s chances. But, as the late great sportswriter Bill Leggett reported in Sports Illustrated, he faced nine rivals in the 1 1/2-mile test because “owners and trainers of colts of modest talent could not believe that the sprinting Bold Forbes would be able to carry his speed over the full distance.”

   Cordero’s response? His DRF quote was, “I told [Bold Forbes], ‘Get me to the eighth pole, baby, and I’ll take it from there.’”

   That’s just the way it worked out. In one of the most masterful rides of a career defined by them, Cordero took Bold Forbes right to the lead, but kept him well off the rail in an attempt to slow the runaway train just a little. Bold Forbes had four lengths on the field after an opening quarter in :23 4/5, with Cordero motionless in the saddle. He’d opened up by seven after a half in :47 and six furlongs in 1:11 1/5. Best Laid Plans made a run at him on the turn, but Cordero didn’t flinch, and he was drawing off again as they hit the mile in 1:36.

Shackleford & Castanon

   Five in front when they wheeled into the stretch, Bold Forbes did what he’d been asked. He carried Cordero to the eighth pole, and then his Hall of Fame pilot went to work. Using the whip judiciously, Cordero squeezed til Bold Forbes was bone dry, but they hit the wire a neck in front of McKenzie Bridge (video).

   Before the race, Cordero told Leggett, “People can say that Bold Forbes will not get a mile and a half. Let them talk. Let’s wait until the race is run. But remember the fish: he only gets caught when he opens his mouth.”

   Cordero walked the walk in the 1976 Belmont. Maybe Castanon can get him to talk the talk, and, with a little advice from one of the greatest riders of all time, silence those doubting Shackleford.

Fresh Vs. Fit: Recipe for Belmont Success

-- Christina Bossinakis

   It’s that time of year--in fact, one of my favorite periods of the racing season--Belmont Stakes week. I guess living about an hour from Belmont Park (that’s if you manage to hit the Belt Prkwy before 6 a.m.) has given me a very strong appreciation and affection for the final leg of the Triple Crown. Every year, I  make the pilgrimage with some of my esteemed colleagues from the TDN to New York to enjoy the week’s festivities. I was at Belmont Monday morning to watch Animal Kingdom and Nehro have their first works over the track. Animal Kingdom not only worked well, but he looked really good doing it. Quite frankly, I think the Belmont is Animal Kingdom’s to lose. He looks the part, acts the part and will have no excuses if he doesn’t get up in time Saturday. On the other hand, Nehro didn’t leave quite the same impression. However, in his defense, Nehro did pretty much what his connections wanted him to do, and by all accounts, he didn’t wow the masses heading into the Kentucky Derby either, so should we be worried? Not strictly based on that fact, I think.

   Then there is the Preakness winner, Shackleford. He definitely is nice to look at and moves well over the track. In all honesty, I didn’t think much of him prior to the Preakness, but he definitely has shown incremental improvement in his latest few races. His tactical speed appears to be a big plus in a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of early running types to speak of, and although his sire doesn’t scream distance, his female line definitely offers Classic quality. Also, not to be overlooked in the Belmont is the freshness factor. Shackleford is by no means a little slight and delicate flower (think more L L Cool J), and appears to have negotiated the grueling Triple Crown looking no worse for his efforts. However, we won’t really know how much his top notch recent efforts have taken out of him until he hits that long Belmont stretch..


Animal Kingdom                 Sherackatthetrack Photo

   Speaking of freshness, there are a couple of horses in here that might offer some interest at a price. Monzon came home a winner in the Count Fleet S. on the inner track at the Big A Jan. 1, but couldn’t get it together when fifth in Tampa’s GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 12. In my mind, Tampa’s main track is unique, so I generally try not to penalize a horse that runs poorly there. Last time out, he came home sixth in the May 14 GII Peter Pan S., but he seemed to have some excuses, so there could be some improvement in him with a cleaner trip this time. It certainly doesn’t hurt that he is by Belmont winner Thunder Gulch, who in turn has already sired a Belmont winner, Point Given.

   Master of Hounds is another horse that exceeded my expectations in the Derby. Third in Group 1 company in England last year, the bay came home sixth–beaten only three lengths–in the GII BC Juvenile Turf. A nose back in second on the synthetic in the G2 UAE Derby, he was far back in the early going of the Derby, negotiated his way through the mass of horseflesh and got up for fifth, beaten 5 ½ lengths. He’s been off since that effort, which is positive, however, all the flying back and forth from Europe has to take something out of a horse. In any case, I’m not sure he’s good enough to win, but could definitely get a piece of it.


Shackleford       Sherackatthetrack Photo

Past is Present...

   Jotting down some of my thoughts on this weekend’s Belmont contenders has reminded me of a story I wrote several years back. In 2005, I had the pleasure of interviewing trainer D. Wayne Lukas (now a Hall of Famer) for a feature that ran in the Belmont Stakes Souvenir Program. When asked what kind of horse it took to win ‘The Test of a Champion’, Lukas offered some very insightful and pertinent points.

   "All of the Belmont horses have to be extremely sound and they’ve got to have an iron constitution," he explained. "They can’t be delicate. They have to be the kind of horses that can stand the stress and strain of getting there and do it on that day. Most people think that a 1 1/2-mile race should suit a horse who’s a natural stayer. I do think that they have to have that quality to stay a mile-and-a-half, but I think they also have to have a turn of foot and some tactical speed. It becomes a test of having a horse that’s fresh and on his game. [Trainer] Woody [Stephens] proved that with his five winners, because he would sit in New York and wait for everybody to go through the first two legs of the Triple Crown, and then he’d pick them up and whip them."

   While it’s true, Woody Stephens mastered the art of defeating battle-worn rivals with his daisy-fresh runners, Lukas didn’t. Tabasco Cat, Thunder Gulch and Editor’s Note ran in the first two Triple Crown events before culminating the five-week stretch with a win at Belmont. Lukas’ most recent Belmont winner, Commendable, ran in the Derby, but bypassed the Preakness.

   I think the point is, regardless of whether a trainer brings a fresh horse or one that has danced every dance, it comes down to how well he or she knows his/her horse. Stephens knew what worked best for him, and Lukas knew what worked for his operation. On Saturday, we will see who will establish their recipe for Belmont success.