Guest Post: Don't Look Now, But Handle Is Up

by Bill Finley

   Has horseracing turned a corner?

   Based on the latest monthly betting figures coming out of Equibase, it has.

   Wagering on U.S. races rose 9.46 percent in March as $984 million passed through the mutuel windows. For the year, wagering is up 5.43 percent or $139 million. The latest figures are a continuance of a trend that began in December when wagering was up 17.88 percent. It was the first month that had showed a wagering increase since November 2009, ending a two-year run that was as dismal as it gets.

   What’s happened? No one seems quite sure, but these are no doubt some factors that have contributed to racing’s recent good run:

--The Economy: The economy isn’t as bad as it used to be. As people start to get back on their feet financially they are no doubt rediscovering pari-mutuel wagering.

--New York City OTB: They pulled the plug on the hapless organization on December 7, 2010, which took hundreds of millions of dollars out of betting circulation. Since December 2011 the loss of the OTB dollars in the month-versus-month figures has not been a factor.

--The Weather: The weather in the Northeast was freakishly mild this year. There were very few cancellations and there was nothing weather-wise standing in the way of anyone who might have wanted to make a bet.

--The Gulfstream Factor: It can’t be a coincidence that racing’s reversal coincided with opening day of the Gulfstream meet. Gulfstream had a fabulously successful meet under the leadership of Tim Ritvo. The track’s all-sources handle was up $96 million for the recently concluded meet, a large chunk of the total handle increase in the U.S. Gulfstream opened earlier than ever this year, gained some momentum right at the start and never looked back.

   As I have written many times before, put on a great product and treat the customer right and people will bet. It’s not horse racing people have walked away from; it’s lousy horse racing.

--Low Takeout, Inexpensive Wagers: Nearly everyone has jumped on this bandwagon. Where once the customer was forced to bet a $1 or $2 multiple race wager with a ridiculously high takeout, now there are abundant opportunities to bet 50-cent tickets on Pick Fours and Pick Fives where the takeout is in the 15 percent range. These bets work because people think they have can spend modestly yet still have a reasonable chance of winning big and they don’t get fleeced by 25 percent takeouts.

   We’re probably not out of the woods yet, but, at the very least, it looks like the tailspin is over. Hallelujah.

  

Guest Post: Driving Down Borel Avenue

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

   Some of the greatest pro athletes over the years have taken a small, seemingly insignificant morsel of space and made it their own. Hockey legend Wayne Gretzky made some of the greatest plays ever seen from his "office"--that approximately five foot space between the rear of the opponent's goal and the end boards. The NBA's all-time leading scorer Kareem Abdul-Jabbar scored many of his 38,387 points almost at will, using his patented, ambidextrous sky-hook within the confines of a small slice of hardwood in the low post. Former Pittsburgh Steelers fullback Franco Harris led his team to four Super Bowl Championships running almost exclusively into that small gap between the tackles.
   Similarly, jockey Calvin Borel (Bo-rail to Churchill regulars) has for quite some time now been racking up wins at Churchill Downs by staying down on the rail with many of his mounts. Now there is every other rider's idea of the rail and then there is Calvin's version. Calvin's rail is more like the shoulder of the road, a very narrow country road, and quite literally only perhaps a few inches from the anodized aluminum inner rail.
   The footing on Calvin Avenue is virgin, unbroken or chewed up by numerous aluminum-plated hooves, unlike the often-traveled ground only a few feet to the outside of Mr. Borel's groove. Calvin Ave. is faster, but not for the faint-hearted. When horse and rider are that tight to the inside rail, there really is nowhere to go should any unfortunate circumstance occur in front of them. Of course that hardly concerns Calvin, who grew up riding on some of the roughest ovals known to man on the Louisiana bush track circuit.
   One would think that any rider able to win three of the last five runnings of the Kentucky Derby might be in very high demand as that first Saturday in May nears but, amazingly enough, that is not the case. Apparently this high-energy, Cajun package is not everyone's cup of tea. The man, after all, never even completed eighth grade. He is not well spoken or articulate. He seems awkward, almost uncomfortable in a room full of people.
   So just what exactly does Calvin bring to the table? Borel is a jockey who knows every foot of the Churchill Downs dirt surface like it was his own private putting green. A rider who, on Derby day, relies on street smarts rather than the kind one learns through high school and into college. A rider who has come to understand the often unreasonable pace of the world's most famous horse race and how many lengths can be made up by a legitimate stretch-runner in that testing final three furlongs. Boo-Boo, as the Borel clan calls him, brings a palpable, youthful exuberance to every Derby runner lucky enough to have him fiddling with their mane in the Derby post parade.
   For all the unbridled, delirious celebrating that takes place after Borel has guided yet another Derby winner to victory, the man is quite the opposite before the contest. From the time Calvin exits the jocks room until the assistant starter leads his mount into their assigned stall in the starting gate, the Borel face remains expressionless, only a steely stare suggesting the enormous amount of concentration.
   While the Castellanos, Gomezes and Velazquezes of the jockey set must mull over which one of the two or three offered mounts they will choose to ride on Derby day, Borel has no such luxury. Sometimes Calvin tends to come up with his Derby winners in unconventional ways.
   As the 2010 Derby approached, both of the Todd Pletcher "go to" riders were engaged to their respective mounts; Velazquez to Eskendereya and Gomez to Lookin at Lucky. With those two riders already spoken for, the mount on Super Saver was offered up to Borel for the Arkansas Derby as he had won the Kentucky Jockey Club S. on the WinStar colt as a juvenile. Derby favorite Eskendereya, of course, was withdrawn from the Derby due to injury only one day prior to entries, leaving Pletcher mainstay John Velazquez without a ride for the race. Calvin, as everyone knows, made the most of this improbable opportunity on Super Saver, giving both Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm their first Kentucky Derby success.

Borel               Horsephotos

   The previous year, a virtual unknown little gelding exiting a minor stakes race in New Mexico was about to embark on a painfully long trailer ride to Louisville, Kentucky. With no "name" rider's agent even giving this gelding a second look, trainer Benny Woolley, Jr. reached out to the local guy. As Calvin had no previous commitment, he of course accepted the mount on the almost impossible longshot named Mine That Bird, and the rest, as they say, is history.
   This year, Calvin will team with former Churchill conditioner Pat Byrne and an A.P. Indy colt named Take Charge Indy. In two starts this year, perhaps by design, the colt seems to have developed into more of a free-running sort than Calvin is used to. Still, the partnership seems to be working just fine as they will enter the Derby off a very decent, front-running win in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park, defeating probable Derby favorite Union Rags.
   Somewhere around 5:30 pm on Saturday, May 5, in the cramped jockey quarters at Churchill Downs, 20 of the best riders in America will be giving the past performances one last look before donning their respective Derby silks. Some will in fact be more talented riders than the wiry, wide-eyed Cajun affectionately known as Bo-rail. None, however, will give their mounts any greater chance at that blanket of roses than him.

The New Generation: Why My Son Doesn't Like Horseracing

by Sue Finley

   Last week, during our school's spring break, I took my son to Seattle to visit the Boeing airplane factory. My son is a bit of an aviation junkie, and going to an airport or on a plane with him generally provokes discussion that goes like this:

Ryan: "Mom, do you see that 737-800 over there?"
Me: "The US Airways plane, right there?"
Ryan: "Oh, my god, Mom. That's an Airbus A-319."

Me: "How can you tell?"

Ryan: "How can you tell? It's a completely different style of engineering. Do you see how the wingtips on the 737 are advanced blended winglets? They reduce lift-induced drag and are now available as a standard production line option for all 737s, except of course, for the 600 series, where they're still assessing the applicability."

Boeing's 737 wingtips in the foreground in red are clearly
different from those on the Airbus 319 (in yellow).

Me: "Oh."

Ryan: "The A-319s have wingtip fences. And of course, the new Boeing 747-8i and 8f, as well as the 787-8 and 787-9 have raked wingtips."

Me: "Of course."

   Ryan is 13.

   So, for five days, we spent every minute of every day trolling through a half-dozen museums dedicated to aviation history. We hit the Heritage of Flight collection, where Ryan showed me the oh-so-obvious difference between the B-25 Mitchell and B-26 Marauder (which happened to be the plane that bombed my father's POW train during World War II in a friendly fire incident). It had something to do with two side thingees on the tail...and a 75 millimeter cannon...I think.

Ryan Finley heaven: watching Air France executives
inspect their new 787 at the Boeing factory. Or maybe
it was a 777. (I can't tell the difference, but don't tell Ryan.)



    We saw the Future of Flight center, where we designed our own aircraft; went to the Museum of Flight, where we climbed aboard the original Air Force One; and took the Boeing factory tour twice, where there's some chance Ryan knew as much if not more than the tour guide. No sooner would he whisper to me, "the composite material in the 787 allows for greater humidity in the cabin," than the tour guide would say to the group, "the composite material in the 787 allows for greater humidity in the cabin."

   When I called friends at home to report all of this, one friend said to me, "I wish I had spent my youth being obsessed with something productive like aviation, instead of horses."
    And it made me start to wonder...why isn't Ryan obsessed with horses? It's certainly not his upbringing. He has been to the Haskell and the Breeders' Cup, to our box at Monmouth, to horse farms to see mares and foals, and the retired racehorse we sponsor.
   Had my parents taken me to Seattle when I was 13, I would have coaxed them into taking me to Hastings Park, where I would have obsessed over Kenny Skinner's ROI on the turf, compared to his dirt stats. When I was a kid, we used to go to Hialeah on spring break.
   Furthermore, Ryan is an animal lover, as I was as a child. He participates in the family's dog rescue efforts,  and can't bear to watch any film in which an animal might be harmed. I had to promise him that Secretariat would make it through a whole career unscathed, as would all of his competitors, before we could go see that film.
   And the sad realization I have come to is that racing, for many reasons, no longer feels like a sport that attracts the animal lover, as it did when I was a child. As a teen, I would wander around Belmont, looking at the huge, beautiful posters comparing the Thoroughbred racehorse to the cheetah. "Hay, oats and water" was a gigantic selling point to someone like me, one which I continued to use through my days as a NYRA PR flack to assure visiting media that the people in New York cared for horses like nowhere on earth.
   Today, I'd have a hard time justifying raceday medication to my son. I'd have a hard time explaining why jockeys whip the horses if they love them so much. I'd have a hard time telling him that with a national catastrophic breakdown rate of 1.91 per 1,000 starts (about double what it was at NYRA when I was a teenager), that statistically, every 12 days he would see a horse break down and die on the track, but that it was part of the game. I know he'd feel if that happened, and I know I'd have no answer for him.
   There is a whole generation of Ryan Finleys out there, more sensitive to animal suffering than we ever were. As parents, we'd prefer to say to them that horses don't run when they don't feel up to it, and they only run as fast as they're able without being hit to run faster, and that everything is being done to make sure they don't get hurt. But in our hearts, we really can't.
   We're spending a lot of money right now as an industry to market our product to people who might not know about it. But really, some of us know a lot about it, and aren't finding enough to recommend about it, which leads me to believe that we don't have a marketing problem; we have a product problem.
   If we're not willing to take a hard look at fixing it, we're going to let a whole generation of Ryan Finleys grow up being obsessed about something else.

Sophomore Spotlight: Wood, Santa Anita Derby and Illinois Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GI Wood Memorial S. - I know he has become a total wise guy horse, but I just can't get past Street Life (Street Sense)--his last two late runs were incredibly impressive, and he might actually get some real pace this time. Performances like the dark bay's second-out maiden breaker (video) often turn out to be optical illusions. For whatever reason, horses that come from impossibly far back like that usually fail to live up to the hype in subsequent starts (perhaps because oftentimes their moves are accentuated by their slow-moving competition). Two horses have returned from that Feb. 11 contest to break their maidens with new Beyer Speed Figure tops, however, and Street Life came back to turn in an even more impressive effort in his first stakes try.

   Despite earning only a 70 Beyer when donning cap and gown, Street Life was no secret in the Big A's 8 1/2-furlong Broad Brush S. over the inner track Mar. 17--he was backed down to 9-5, and proved it was for good reason. Showing more early interest than he had the time before (perhaps simply because of the pace dynamics), Street Life tracked from mid-pack as Copy My Swagger (Easing Along) carved out absolutely glacial fractions. The frontrunner--if you can call what he was doing early "running"--posted an opening quarter in :25.35, or 21 points below par on the Moss Pace Figure scale. Street Life didn't appear to be traveling particularly smoothly as the field entered the far turn, and it seemed that he would not live up to the hype or the 'TDN Rising Star' tag bestowed upon him the time before. But he started to come alive at the head of the lane under some enthusiastic encouragement from Junior Alvarado and, despite failing to switch leads for most of the stretch run, blew by the still straight-and-strong Copy My Swagger to win it in hand by a half-length (video). This was clearly not a case of a tiring front-runner getting caught. The runner-up came home second-fastest in the field (:31.61), but still a full second slower than Street Life (:30.59). The 85 Beyer Street Life ran fits well enough with this bunch on its own, but certainly does not accurately reflect his capabilities considering the slow pace he overcame.

Street Life            Coglianese Photo

   While this field as a whole does not possess particularly fast early pace figures, a number of runners have a tendency to travel on or near the lead. This is key to set up Street Life's late kick, and also to soften up formidable favorite Gemologist (Tiznow). Trainer Mike Hushion recently said that the undefeated, stretching-out The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam) would be sent hard early, so he should ensure solid enough splits if Casual Trick (Bernardini), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect), Teeth of the Dog (Bluegrass Cat) and/or Gemologist show the same sort of early interest that they have in recent starts. More real estate can only help Street Life's cause (more because of his pedigree than his running style), and he still has ample room to mature mentally. I'm expecting another big step forward, and one that could very well propel Street Life towards the top of the list of Derby contenders.

GI Santa Anita Derby - I was kind of hoping Bodemeister (Empire Maker) would return here for a rematch with Creative Cause (Giant's Causeway), as I think that runner's set to explode, but I guess we'll have to wait a week to see him run. The main knock on Creative Cause here might be that trainer Mike Harrington elects to take off the blinkers for the first time in the favorite's career despite the fact that he ran the fastest race of his life last out with the hood on. I guess this is a better time to experiment than in a month from now, but it could leave Creative Cause slightly vulnerable at a short number. I'm going to key off of two horses who should be decent prices here in Pick 3s or 4s, and who would benefit from somewhat opposite pace scenarios. It is not readily apparent to me how the pace of this race will play out, so I'll use an overlay for each possibility.

Holy Candy         Benoit Photo

   First up is Holy Candy (Candy Ride {Arg}). I must admit that I didn't really see what all the hype surrounding this horse was about before he broke his maiden last time. He had faced solid competition that had gone on to bigger and better once outside the maiden ranks, but horses who consistently run second just don't interest me. Backed down to 1-2 last time going a mile here Mar. 23, the powerful grey finally put it all together. In a race strikingly similar to Street Life's Broad Brush described above, Holy Candy tracked from fourth of five behind a pacesetter who got his opening quarter in :24.69. It's surprising that a horse at any level could go that slow early over Santa Anita's lightning-quick strip, but it actually happened--good for a 48 Moss Pace Figure, 28 points below par. The lack of any sort of set-up didn't seem to bother Holy Candy, though, as he blew by the decent Bob Baffert-trained frontrunner Eaton Hall (El Corredor) for a 3 1/2-length success (video). Holy Candy got his final quarter in a head-turning :23.05--even at Santa Anita, that's fast. Holy Candy's 84 Beyer doesn't do his last performance justice, and while I think he might be better off in next week's GI Blue Grass S. (trainer John Sadler says he won't make a decision until Saturday morning), he has the raw talent to demand inclusion in this admittedly steep jump in class.
   Longview Drive (Pulpit), a full-brother to the accomplished Pyro, could upset this bunch at a solid price, possibly on the front-end. The $175,000 KEESEP yearling has fallen through the cracks a bit despite completing the trifecta in one of the stronger Derby preps we've seen all season, the GIII Sham S. He earned a 97 Beyer Speed Figure after setting an above average pace, and was only beaten a length by the injured but promising Out of Bounds (Discreet Cat) and the very accomplished Secret Circle (Eddington). That effort garnered the chestnut favoritism in what ultimately proved the weaker of two divisions of the GIII Southwest S., but a nightmare trip relegated Longview Drive to sixth. Off a half-step slow, he was unable to make the lead, and was forced to rate from a tight spot along the inside, which he clearly was not happy about. Longview Drive was then taken to the far outside for clear sailing, covering far more ground than any other rival before ultimately flattening out. He'll get get original pilot Russell Baze back in the saddle, and should give a much better account of himself this time at double digit odds.

Done Talking         Horsephotos

GIII Illinois Derby - Considering how much I've touted him, I've got no choice but to go back to Done Talking (Broken Vow) here. He's not my top choice for the Kentucky Derby anymore, but I do think that all the positives I've pointed out about him in past posts still ring true if you simply toss his complete non-effort in the GIII Gotham S. last time. It was his first start back off a lay-off that was extended due to illness and he did get bumped a bit going into the first turn. The homebred has since returned with a pair of upbeat drills, including a bullet five furlongs in 1:00 4/5 at Laurel Mar. 24, so there's reason to believe he's doing well. It's also positive to see his connections opt to take a shot and ship out to Chicago from Maryland. The 13 post isn't ideal, but it's not as if Done Talking will be gunned early for position. A lack of pace would prove a bigger obstacle for the bay, but large fields tend to guarantee solid enough splits and Morgan's Guerilla (Ghostzapper) possesses the type of speed that will probably be hard to harness. He posted very fast splits when breaking his maiden on the Gotham undercard Mar. 3, and should be winging it early with others in tow. There's no reason why Done Talking can't bounce back and be the one to seize command late at a price that could be upwards of 20-1.

Guest Post: Let's Take a Peek at Some Derby Players

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

April has finally arrived and that means Kentucky Derby 138 is less than five weeks away. As usual, there are plenty of opinions regarding which of the prospective cast of 3-year-olds have the best, or least, chance to claim the roses. Past experiences have taught me the prudent approach works best when attempting to assess the relative merits of these Churchill-bound youngsters. Sorting out contenders from pretenders prior to the final set of nine-furlong preps can sometimes be tougher than a guy trying to fold a freshly laundered contour sheet! With that in mind, we will simply have a look at what I believe are some of the strengths/weaknesses of a handful of the more seasoned players.

Dullahan (Even the Score) Trainer: Dale Romans - This has not been the smoothest of winters in South Florida for last year’s Breeders' Futurity winner. Dullahan battled a persistent cough upon arriving at Gulfstream which delayed his 2012 debut. When he did finally show up in the entries, he ran decently enough when second to Howe Great in the nine-furlong GIII Palm Beach S. Dullahan had been suspiciously absent from the work tab since that March 11 race, finally recording a five-furlong work on Apr. 1. 
   Now comes word that he had popped a splint (bone) shortly after the Palm Beach. Romans was quoted as saying he was confident Dullahan remains on schedule for a start in the Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland on Apr. 14. As the Blue Grass is contested on Keeneland’s Polytrack surface, the son of Even the Score will head to Churchill with only one meaningful dirt line with which to judge his ability on that surface. That effort, a closing 4th to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, was very similar to his previous run in the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland. In a tell-tale trial Feb. 25 at Gulfstream, Dullahan worked five furlongs in :59 1/5--fastest of 22 that morning. I for one am going to assume that this colt is every bit as comfortable on dirt as he is on synthetic or turf. Though he missed some time early on this winter, that might well be offset by his solid juvenile foundation which saw him run in four 1 1/16 races between mid-August and Breeders’ Cup day Nov. 5. The popped splint, however, comes at a very inopportune time and can’t be dismissed as a non-issue as this colt goes forward.

Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy) Trainer: Steve Asmussen - If Dullahan’s quad-route juvenile foundation was solid, this colt’s all-turf sextet of routes is unshakable! That foundation has no doubt helped his sophomore cause. DNB returned to the races with a narrow victory in Golden Gate’s GIII El Camino Real Derby, defeating fellow stretch-runner Lucky Chappy, who was unplaced this past Saturday in Dubai’s G2 U.A.E. Derby.
   Lured by the lucrative graded money up for grabs in the GIII Sunland Derby, Asmussen decided this was the right time to give the son of Scat Daddy his dirt mid-term exam. DNB passed the test, registering a 100 Beyer in his first dirt start since he was out-sprinted last July at Churchill. He got his final furlong in just over :12 1/5…that’s running!
   The Derby prep landscape is always changing as dates, purses and sometimes even stake upgrades are constantly changed and repositioned. Trainers nowadays must be conscious of graded stakes earnings. Most years, it will take better than $200,000 in graded earnings to safely earn a spot in the Derby starting gate. Prior to 2010, the ungraded Sunland Derby was nowhere on any serious Derby contender’s radar. Now with the Grade III designation and a fat $800,000 purse, handicappers can no longer simply ignore those results. 

Union Rags (Dixie Union) Trainer: Michael Matz - Widely recognized as the Derby favorite heading into this past Saturday’s GI Florida Derby, the massive colt’s stock might just drop a notch with his length-and-a-neck defeat. Personally, I don’t believe his loss to Take Charge Indy and Reveron warrants it. He was, after all, hemmed in with nowhere to run at that crucial point from the five-eighths pole to well beyond the three-eighths pole. Though he took a while to get rolling once clear, Union Rags did run on well, and in fact ran his final sixteenth in a very good :12 2/5. On paper, the Florida Derby was very much a race lacking in speed. The race shape was never going to help a big, long-striding, middle-moving horse like Union Rags, especially with trainer Michael Matz’s main objective to further the colt’s education towards relaxing during the opening half-mile.
   It is worth noting that the two lengths Union Rags made up on the winner in the stretch were the only lengths gained by any runner in the entire field--further proof as to how speed-friendly this pace was. His trip-hampered Beyer number of 93 translates to more like a 96 or 97 when you consider the lack of running room he had and that number would be very much in line with what he’s been running. At the end of the day, the son of Dixie Union strongly suggests that the 10 furlongs of the Derby will not be an issue. There are good losses and there are bad losses…this was a good loss. Importantly, the colt looked outstanding from a physical standpoint and appeared to travel during the running like a very sound horse. For those folks lucky enough to get out to the Downs during training hours Derby week, you are going to see a number of Derby hopefuls who appear as though they’ve already been through a tough grind. Don’t look for Union Rags to be one of them.    

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley) Trainer: Doug O’Neill - Despite a convincing tour de force in the GII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita, the chestnut is still flying well below the radar of most folks. Perhaps it’s the fact that he hasn’t competed since that Feb. 4 race where he was dismissed at a generous 43-1. It’s not often that a 43-1 runner looks like the winner past every pole, but that was certainly the case as the son of Flower Alley used his high cruising speed to stalk pacesetter Isn’t He Clever. Upon receiving his cue from little-known jockey Mario Gutierrez, I’ll Have Another promptly put daylight on his field, and just like that, the race was over. Asked to go a distance of ground for the first time off a five-month layoff is a tall order for any horse, yet this colt showed some lovely, tractable speed, and then finished up like a horse with considerable quality. The fractions and final time of the race stacked up very favorably with a pair of races for older runners that same day--the GII Strub S. and a very salty first-level allowance won by the proven stakes performer Setsuko.  
   I don’t know why connections have passed on the month of March with I'll Have Another. He looks like a big, rugged colt to me and judging from his work tab since the Lewis--a mile in 1:42.60, 7 furlongs (twice) in 1:26 and a splendid 6 furlongs in 1:10, he certainly isn’t being babied. He doesn’t have to win the Santa Anita Derby to be for real, but he does have to come back and run something very similar, perhaps even a bit better than his Lewis effort to convince me all is well in O’Neilland.

Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway) Trainer: Mike Harrington - As a rule, juveniles that break their maidens at five furlongs first time out with a 98 Beyer don’t generally find their way into the Kentucky Derby. Yet Creative Cause, arguably the West Coast’s top 3-year-old at this stage has done exactly that. The colt is equally accomplished on dirt and synthetic and why wouldn’t he be? He is a a son of Giant’s Causeway, afterall. As a juvenile, Creative Cause made a seamless transition from sprinting to routing. He ended the season with a very useful third-place finish in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Though beaten only a length and a head, he was almost the forgotten horse amid the “Hansen or Union Rags” flap.
   In the most meaningful stretch run to date--as far as the Derby preps are concerned--Creative Cause outdueled the lightly raced and very brave Bodemeister to take home the winner’s share in the GII San Felipe S. (102 Beyer). Coming up with an accurate number can prove a difficult task when a given day fails to present any other races of comparable class/distance/surface. This was the case on Mar. 10 at Santa Anita, but the lads at Beyer central generally get things right, so we will trust they got this one right until proven otherwise. It certainly appeared to these eyes that those were a couple of quality colts coming down the Santa Anita stretch.
   Negatives, negatives…let’s see. He’s no spring chicken, but trainer Mike Harrington has had very limited experience handling Derby horses, though he certainly couldn’t be faulted for any chess pieces he’s moved to this point in the match.

Hansen (Tapit) Trainer: Michael Maker - This colt looked like a horse of some quality early on, running off the screen in two impressive Turfway efforts. When he wired the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field at Churchill, we then knew he could do it on dirt as well. Hansen has always been very much a free-running sort, so it was no surprise that he was extremely keen in the GIII Holy Bull S. off a nearly three-month absence. In an attempt to relax the speedy gray, blinkers were removed for the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, where he sat off the hip of the leader before taking up the running at the three-eighths pole and cruising to a three-length win (95 Beyer). Fair enough.
   Having handled the Aqueduct surface so well in the Gotham, connections immediately announced that Hansen’s next start would be in the GI Wood Memorial over the same track. Not too long after, however, those same connections said Hansen had been rerouted to the Blue Grass because owner/breeder Kendall Hansen had always wanted to win an important race at that famed racetrack. Reading between the lines--as one must always do approaching the Derby--trainer Mike Maker was quoted as saying Hansen had a tough race in the Gotham and lost quite a bit of weight. The Blue Grass option gives the colt an extra week to put some meat back on his bones, and he need only ship a short distance to Churchill either from Keeneland or Maker’s base at the Churchill Downs Training Center.  Though I very much respect Hansen’s high-class speed, I’m beginning to get a bit of a negative vibe with news of him losing a chunk of weight in only his second start off a freshening. I also have serious doubts that he will stay nine or 10 furlongs and I question the strength of his pedigree towards that end. And finally, I wonder if he’ll be able to remain tractable if drawn towards the inside half of a thundering 20-runner Derby field.

Gemologist (Tiznow) Trainer: Todd Pletcher - With an unblemished four-for-four record to this point, Gemologist remains the only potential Derby starter with a chance to enter the starting gate unbeaten. Gemologist, of course, must first get through his next scheduled engagement, the Apr.7 Wood Memorial, where he must finish no worse than second in order to secure enough graded earnings to ensure himself a spot in the field. A very good, if not spectacular juvenile, Gemologist made it quite obvious he had wintered very well indeed at Palm Meadows in south Florida when unveiled in a one-mile, Gulfstream allowance. The son of Tiznow controlled things from the start and settled the issue well before the field turned into the stretch. His eight furlongs, covered in 1:35.4, translated to a 95 Beyer number, a full 10 points higher than his best last year, an 85 when winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill.
   There are always holes to be poked in all these 3-year-olds, so we will address what I feel like could well pose a problem on Derby day. Gemologist has never had to contest any lively splits and has never been farther than 2 1/2 lengths off the lead at any call. On Derby day this can often prove a bad combination because many years the race unfolds at a much faster pace than most of these horses have previously seen.
   The position of the starting gate for Gulfstream’s one-mile races is literally a few feet from the starting pole. Because there is such a short “run-up” to the pole, the timer starts almost as soon as the gates open. This is the reason for the very slow opening quarters at that distance. Even by those standards, Gemologist got away with a very easy :24.4 opening quarter. It’s very difficult to make any ground up on a good horse when he’s given a free ride during the first quarter mile. Certainly Gemologist is a very good horse, and an even better horse under those circumstances. Horses as a rule don’t generally react very favorably to extreme positional or fractional changes in their racing diet, especially when they’re being asked to cover a distance greater than they have previously been asked to run. That is to say if a colt has been on the lead through fractions resembling :23.4, :47.4 in his last few preps and suddenly is faced with :22.4, :46.3 on Derby day, chances are that this scenario is not going to play out favorably. He may be ill-equipped to set the pace himself with those much faster splits. Moreover, he may well also resent the alternative--taking back six or seven lengths off the lead if that’s the route the rider chooses to take. These are issues that play out year after year in the Kentucky Derby. And more so in the prep races where many trainers/owners now plot out the easiest possible spots with enticingly short fields that often ensure a far slower pace than what the participants must encounter at Churchill.

Sophomore Spotlight: Florida and Louisiana Derbies

GI FLORIDA DERBY - Honestly, I'm not sure how great of a betting race this is, but it might be an important event in how it sets up betting for the Derby. It's very likely that one of the three obvious horses--Union Rags (Dixie Union), El Padrino (Pulpit) or Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy)--will win. I'll probably use all three in the Pick 4 and simply hope to survive, but certainly wouldn't mind if the Union Rags gets it done as the favorite, even if it might deflate any potential exotic pay-offs.
   Unless Union Rags shows something he hasn't so far, I'm very eager to bet against him in the Kentucky Derby. He has yet to run faster than a 95 Beyer Speed Figure, but he's the consensus Derby favorite because his wins have been visually impressive and he had an admittedly brutal trip in the Breeders' Cup. He's all the way down to 3-1 on the morning line for the Derby Future Wager Pool 3 despite the fact that there have been more than 30 performances in 2012 by 3-year-olds that earned higher figures than the 95 Union Rags received for the GII Fountain of Youth S. last time. It's also not a great sign that the bay has yet to receive a figure faster than what he earned for his very solid 7 1/4-length success in the GII Saratoga Special last August. Horses' speed figures should improve significantly from age two to three unless they've reached their ceiling. Add to that a pedigree that doesn't guarantee success at Classic distances (his lone full-sibling was a decidedly better sprinter), and I'm happy to lay a much-too-short price on Union Rags come May 5--especially if the outcome of the Florida Derby deflates his odds further.
   A win play against Union Rags might be warranted here, but I'd need something like three times the price of the favorite to bet El Padrino and six or seven times the price on Take Charge Indy. I don't expect the necessary price on El Padrino due to the Pletcher factor (Discreet Dancer was actually odds-on over Union Rags in the FOY). While Take Charge Indy moved too soon and probably ran a better race than El Padrino when they faced off in an allowance here Jan. 29, he has been handled with a lack of confidence this Triple Crown season that makes me hesitant to back him without the right reward for the added risk.

Union Rags                                  A Coglianese

GII LOUISIANA DERBY - There's a good chance that Cigar Street (Street Sense) is in a different class than the rest of these horses, but there's an even better chance that he'll be forced to work hard to prove it. Enough confirmed speed is signed on here, even with the defection of Arm Force (Tiznow) (my original pick), to test the recent maiden romper. Reformed claimer Comisky's Humor (Sharp Humor) exits sprints in which he set the pace, so there's no doubt he'll be sent. Hero of Order (Sharp Humor) set fairly moderate splits in the GII Risen Star with Mark Valeski (Proud Citizen) in tow (that slow pace is the reason I'm against Mark Valeski), but he was part of an extremely hot pace in the GIII Lecomte S., so I'd expect Hero of Order to add plenty more fuel to the fire. I certainly won't be shocked if Cigar Street ends up cruising here from either on or off the pace, but he was tugging pretty hard when he romped last time and he's clearly not the type to take at a short price.   
   Since nobody else from the GII Risen Star looks particularly interesting based on trip analysis, I'll look to key off of two out-of-town closers. Despite Dale Romans's past success with horses switching from turf to dirt, I wasn't expecting much from Finnegans Wake (Powerscourt {GB}) in the Gotham, but the very late runner overcame a slow-to-average pace to complete the trifecta in that event at 25-1. He needs to improve significantly from a speed figure standpoint to contend in this spot, but he's still lightly raced and more ground should be to his liking. His pedigree screams very long distances on the turf, but since he took to the dirt reasonably well last time, maybe distance considerations will outweigh surface ones in this case. It's also worth noting that two horses he has been competitive with on the turf--News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) and Golden Ticket (Speightstown)--have run much faster on the dirt recently. The former, another example of Romans's turf-to-dirt prowess, was second in the Fountain of Youth with an 88 Beyer, compared to the 79 he earned when a length in front of Finnegans Wake in a Gulfstream optional claimer Feb. 5. Golden Ticket almost won the GII Tampa Bay Derby with an 87 versus the 73 he ran when second beaten two lengths by Finnegans Wake in a Gulfstream maiden Jan. 1. Don't be surprised if Finnegans Wake runs by them all at the end of that long Fair Grounds stretch at a nice price.
   I'll also use Rousing Sermon (Lucky Pulpit), who has been running reasonably well out in California, including a close runner-up effort in the GI CashCall Futurity late last season. His last two tries came over the Santa Anita dirt, which probably hasn't helped his cause, and the California horses appear to be a bit stronger in 2012 than in recent years.


Cigar Street                                 Lou Hodges



Guest Post: Shack, Brown and Spun Speed

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst 

   The Kentucky Derby is a race like no other, and yet, just like any other horse race, Kentucky Derbies are won with speed, by stalkers, middle-movers and one-run closers. All these running styles are somewhat dependent upon favorable pace scenarios which that particular running might provide. So, what about speed types? Which ones actually have a legitimate chance on the first Saturday in May? The answer to this puzzle is rarely an easy one and often still muddled in mid-March. But fear not, because all sorts of useful clues will reveal themselves as the day draws nearer and sometimes, even on Derby day itself.
   Any time you load 20 3-year-olds into a starting gate in the spring with all the hype and emotion surrounding this race, the potential exists for too fast a pace. Perhaps five or six years out of 10, the pace will in fact be too hot. This makes it extra tough for a speed type to employ his preferred style with much success. Yet, with proper preparation, a favorable racing surface and/or a reasonable race layout, speed types can and do win the Kentucky Derby.
   I thought Derby 137 presented the perfect opportunity for a certain horse to capitalize on the lack of quality speed signed on. As many times as I looked at the past performances for last year's Derby, I projected Shackleford as turning for home with a lead. I had seen him training Derby week at Churchill on two separate occasions. Both times he looked and acted very much like a horse sitting on his best form. I believed the hot pace he set in the Florida Derby (:23.1, :46.1, 1:10.3) would stand him in good stead come Derby day, and his trainer Dale Romans has always been a conditioner who understands the value of putting one on the lead.
   I did have a few reservations--primarily that he'd needed a slow :13.4 to cover the final sixteenth of that Florida Derby. To add to my concerns, he was beaten by a runner in Dialed In that I believed to be strictly a miler. Also, Shackleford was himself sired by the strong speed influence Forestry. Was I actually going to use a son of Forestry as my key in the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby? With the odds on Shackleford hovering around 25-1 at 10 minutes to post, the answer was a resounding “Yes!”
   Of course, we all know those stamina fears proved well-founded as the lanky chestnut squandered a two-length lead in mid-stretch to finish fourth. To add to my pain, the cast of characters with which I chose to use him with in exactas top and bottom were the first three under the wire--of course! Some tickets are tougher than others to pull out of your pocket and discard, and that particular stack wasn't surrendered to the Keeneland simulcast floor for a few minutes beyond the official sign and payoffs.
   Sorry, a well-conceived, but ill-fated gamble has gotten me off the subject here. Very few Derby pace scenarios will reveal themselves to be so speed impoverished as the 2011 version, but a horse with high quality speed doesn't always need all these factors in his favor to have an outstanding chance at taking home the roses.
   In 2008, notorious bad-boy trainer Rick Dutrow shipped a lightly raced parcel named Big Brown to Churchill Downs to win the Derby in only his 4th lifetime start! The lovely Boundary colt had two huge factors in his favor that year. Firstly, his ability to relax beautifully either when on the lead or when stalking/waiting was clearly on display in both his prep races in South Florida. Brown, as his trainer affectionately called him, had a second gun in his holsters because in both those Gulfstream races he had already encountered as fast a pace as he was likely to see at Churchill.
   Love him or hate him, Dutrow is an exceptional horseman. He believed that a single eight-furlong race would be all Brown needed to put him right for the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby. Both trainer and horse were right on the day as the IEAH colt took immediate control from the 12 post and galloped to a five-length win. His fractions were :22.3, :45.4, 1:10, 1:35 with a final clocking of 1:48. Those were Derby-like fractions and his final furlong was completed in an acceptable :13 flat while cruising. Pairing identical 106 Beyers, his Derby preparation was now truly complete.
   Five weeks later under the Twin Spires, with an opening half mile in :47, the pace was not at all unreasonable as the field straightened out down the backstretch in Derby 134. But Brown had drawn post 20 this day. Asking him to clear the 19 runners to his inside within the first quarter mile might not be impossible given his brilliant speed, but then asking Brown to throttle down after that effort might prove to be a bit tricky. And so the plan was to let the colt's cooperative nature allow jockey Kent Desormeaux to simply sit and wait until the time was right. Brown and 'meaux bided their time for the first six furlongs, then needed only to gobble up lengths into a moderate :25.2 fourth quarter to bust the race wide open coming to the quarter pole.
   In the fall of 2006, an imposing son from the second-to-last crop of the brilliant Danzig, was raising some eyebrows at Delaware Park with a couple of impressive juvenile efforts. The Pennsylvania-bred colt would close out his 2-year-old season with an easy victory in the prestigious seven-furlong Pennsylvania Nursery S. The what?
   OK, so Hard Spun was not on everybody's radar quite yet. Then again, neither was his former commercial farmer turned trainer Larry Jones...not yet! Those who knew of Larry Jones could reasonably assume that this colt would improve at three because his program was geared toward just that. After a powerful, front-running 6 1/2-length win in the GIII LeComte S. at Fair Grounds, everyone would take notice of both colt and trainer. In his final two preps, Jones would have jockey Mario Pino relax Hard Spun a few lengths off the lead, a tactic the leggy bay might have to employ at Churchill. Showing he would have no issues at all with this strategy, Hard Spun won the GII Lane’s End (Spiral) S. about as easily as a horse could win. The Jones trainee was heading to Louisville with a pretty strong hand-tractable speed, a :13 final furlong going 1 1/8 miles and having cracked the Beyer century mark with a 101 in the Lane's End.
   Adding a cherry to this already appealing 10-1 Danzig sundae was the fact there wasn't a terrible amount of quality speed in the field. The West Coast speed Stormello was in declining form and ditto for Teuflesberg, who looked very much a miler. Nobiz Like Shobiz was consistent enough, but had hovered around the same mid-to-high 90s Beyer number for six lifetime starts without any significant jump forward-never a good sign.
   The big worry was the strapping chestnut colt with only three lifetime starts, Curlin. Having drawn post two, however, jockey Robbie Albarado was either going to have to hustle his mount early to hold his position or ease back and hope for the best. As the savvy Asmussen camp had already made a concerted effort in Curlin's two previous starts to keep the talented colt off the lead, I felt confident they would choose the latter.
   Hard Spun did everything just as it was drawn out in the script. He broke alertly and immediately made the lead, got into a lovely high-cruising gear down the backstretch and came into upper stretch with a three-length cushion and some run still in his legs. And then came Calvin, and Street Sense... quickly, very quickly. The Churchill-loving juvenile champ ran by Hard Spun so conclusively that, well, he put a spin on Spun. The fact is Hard Spun had run his race, as the 107 Beyer would attest to and, as gamblers, that's all we can ask for or reasonably expect when we lay our money down. He simply couldn't hold off an exceptional team of Churchill legends in Street Sense and Calvin Borel.