Sophomore Spotlight: Spiral and Sunland Derby

--Brian DiDonato

GIII SPIRAL S. - This race looks like a good spot for a longshot, and Stealcase (Lawyer Ron) fits the bill. The most interesting thing about him is a bit abstract, but bear with me. Stealcase, a $35,000 KEENOV weanling who RNA'd for the same price as an OBSAUG yearling, entered his Saratoga debut with a ton of hype. He had turned in an excellent eighth in :10 flat at OBSMAR (VIDEO), garnering a winning bid of $320,000, and everyone who had seen the breeze was expecting big things in his unveiling. The chestnut was backed down to 9-5 favoritism for that July 30 debut, but was a dull fourth. He filled the same slot in a key heat at Gulfstream Dec. 24--again as the favorite--and graduated on the stretch-out Jan. 19 with a 79 Beyer. He was a decent sixth last time in the GIII Gotham S. Mar. 3 after breaking poorly, but still hasn't come close to living up to his early reputation. There's a very good reason why Stealcase might finally live up to the hype here at Turfway, though. It's important to note that his breeze at OBS was over the synthetic Safetrack surface, and this will be the first time in his racing career that he's been on another all-weather track. Doesn't it seem logical that maybe he was a synthetic horse all along? There's at least a decent chance that that's the case, and considering he doesn't need to move up too much as it is to contend with this bunch, you're certainly getting the right price to hold that opinion. Half of Stealcase's lone sibling's wins have come on synthetic surfaces, which certainly doesn't hurt his cause either. Trainer Mark Casse's success adding blinkers is another positive angle. According to DRF Formulator, the conditioner boasts a gaudy $3.67 ROI over the past season (5/21 24%) in the 'blinkers on' category, which includes Prospective's recent victory in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. Prospective moved up eight Beyer points from his top with the hood--a similar improvement from Stealcase may very well win this, but if he runs on this surface like he did at OBS, he could perform even better.

GIII SUNLAND DERBY - The two main out of town favorites--Castaway (Street Sense) and Ender Knievel (Distorted Humor)--have both been flattered by slow paces in their recent races, and could pose problems for each other here. Castaway also suffers a bit from the weak-seeming running of last weekend's GII Rebel S., which featured three runners who finished behind him in the slower division of the GIIII Southwest S. as well as his stablemate Secret Circle, who won the faster division of the Southwest, but ran the slowest Beyer of his career (92) in winning the Rebel. Bob Baffert's second stringer Stirred Up (Lemon Drop Kid) seems like a logical alternative, but his maiden-breaking tally Mar. 3 was aided by a very fast pace set-up and featured a slow finish. Much-hyped Holy Candy came up a neck short of Stirred Up last time, and was coming off a 2 1/4-length defeat at the hands of Castaway, so while Castaway will be overbet here, he still probably holds an edge over his stablemate. With three of eight horses already eliminated, and with the assumption that Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy) is a synthetic/turf horse, we're pretty much left with Isn't He Clever (Smarty Jones) by default. Luckily, that runner is worthy of consideration on his own merits as well. The bay is two-for-two over this surface, with a 97 Beyer-earning 11 3/4-length romp in the 6 1/2-furlong Allison Futurity Dec. 30, and a solid 1 3/4-length success last time in the 8 1/2-furlong Borderland Derby Feb. 25, for which he earned an 88 Beyer. He was a well-beaten fifth (promoted to fourth) in the GII Bob Lewis S. at Santa Anita in between those wins, but Isn't He Clever found himself on the lead that day (somewhere he doesn't need to be) and was facing tougher competition. Since his career-best performance came sprinting, it's possible that distance could prove an issue, but Isn't He Clever is a half to a stakes winner at 1 3/8 miles on the turf. There's plenty to like about this local hope, and the presence of some bigger names guarantees a somewhat decent price.

Guest Post: What does it take to win the Derby?

--Brian Ludwick, WinStar Farm Bloodstock Analyst

Don’t look now, but the last three winners of America's most famous horse race all failed to reach the Beyer Speed Figure century mark prior to Derby day. Animal Kingdom (94 top), Super Saver (98 top) and Mine That Bird (81 top) all Beyered in the 100+ range on the big day and two of the three--Animal Kingdom and Mine That Bird--came right back to run nearly identical numbers in the Preakness.
   So, are we now looking for a 3-year-old that creeps up on his best form, and then explodes with his best effort on the first Saturday in May? After all, each year, trainers and owners are constantly quoted as saying they don’t want their horses over the top before the big day. Racing network analysts echo the same sentiment almost daily in the months leading up to the showdown in Louisville. Surely they all can’t be wrong, can they? Yes, they can. In fact, there is no more popular misconception about what it takes to win the Derby than this wildly popular, yet totally unsubstantiated theory.
   In the ten years preceding the above mentioned trio, only Giacomo (2005) failed to boil the Beyer thermometer prior to the Derby. In fact, working back from Big Brown in 2008, seven of the 10 surpassed the 100 Beyer mark multiple times prior to the Derby. Here is a list of those previous ten Derby winners. The first number in parentheses is their winning Derby Beyer number. The second number is that horses’ highest pre-Derby Beyer:

Big Brown (109-106)
Street Sense (110-108)
Barbaro (111-103)
Giacomo (100-98)
Smarty Jones (107-108)
Funny Cide (109-110)
War Emblem (114-112)
Monarchos (116-105)
Fusaichi Pegasus (108-111) 
Charismatic (108-108)

   These numbers clearly illustrate that most of the Derby winners had already run a number very close to, and on four occasions, even equaling or surpassing what they needed to run on Derby day itself. It stands to reason that a young 3-year-old being asked to run 10 furlongs in the spring is going to need some pretty significant preparation if he is going to bring home the roses.
   A famous golfer, upon shaking hands with the others in his group on the first tee, said something to the effect of: “Gentlemen, I hope you brought it with you, because you aren’t going to find it out here.” He was, of course referring to a good golf game and well, the same applies for the 20 runners that load into the Churchill starting gate every spring. If they haven’t yet “found it,” they had better have come pretty darned close!
   Okay, I know what some of you are thinking--what about Mine That Bird? How did a horse that had never run better than an 81 Beyer suddenly jump up and win the Kentucky Derby with a 105? This little gelding was a very good juvenile in Canada winning three consecutive stakes up north before bombing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He also picked up the services of Calvin Borel, a rider who, better than any other, understands the vastly different dynamics of this unique race. Having been seated 10 paces or so from the wire that afternoon I can tell you that Mine That Bird really caught the eye from a physical well-being standpoint. On three different, occasions I found myself glancing down at my Daily Racing Form to see who the 8 horse was. He was only a pocket-sized horse but he was bursting with good health.
   Can I offer up an intelligent explanation for how all of these factors added up to a 25-point forward move? No, I can’t. The 135th Kentucky Derby remains, for me at least, the most confounding result I have ever witnessed in a major stakes race. Some horse racing riddles are not meant to be solved.
   The one glaring Beyer increase on our list was Monarchos’s 11-point move forward. I believe it can be explained in part by the fastest opening half-mile in Kentucky Derby history--a ridiculous :44.4 split. That unrealistic four furlongs set the table for a stretch-runner and Monarchos answered the call. It is also worth noting that the son of Maria’s Mon had put together three very good stretch-running efforts leading up to the Derby with Beyers of 103, 105 and 103, and thus had a great foundation from which to work.
   The ill-fated Barbaro came into the Derby with form that was far better than it looked on paper. Beyer numbers assigned for turf races are always a few points lower than their dirt counterparts because, due to the nature of grass racing, there is far less “wiggle room” between good performances and ordinary ones. The same is somewhat true of synthetic racing, but that is another discussion for another day. Still, Barbaro had registered a 102 Beyer in only his second lifetime start on the turf as a juvenile! In a year when outside stalking trips from wide posts spelled doom in nine-furlong races at Gulfstream, Barbaro overcame that sizeable bias to win the Florida Derby a shade cozily. He arrived at Churchill a picture of health, worked like a monster a week out and, with every right to move forward, did just that for trainer Michael Matz.
   There is no doubt that Derby and pre-Derby Beyer numbers have declined significantly over the last three years. The list of contenders six weeks out from the 2012 renewal reveals a large group of horses that have Beyered in the mid-high 90s range with a select few--six actually, that have barely poked their heads above the 100 mark in non-sprints. Those six are Algorithms (105), Creative Cause (102), Secret Circle (102), Bodemeister (101 twice), Scatman (101) and El Padrino (100). Unfortunately, this group is now down to five with the injury to top-fig earner Algorithms.
   There are three sets of serious Derby preps still to be run and it’s a safe bet some of those races will yield some 100+ Beyer numbers. Still, this group is shaping up more like the aforementioned groups of the last three years than the ones from the 10 years before that. At this stage at least, I believe we’re looking at a Derby day Beyer in the low to mid 100’s range.

Sophomore Spotlight: San Felipe, Tampa Bay Derby and Swale

--Brian DiDonato

GII Tampa Bay Derby - Cozzetti (Cozzene) fits an angle that has proven so potent over the past few years that he's a value play on it alone. Trainer Dale Romans is a master at taking turfy-looking horses and running them on the dirt to win or, more commonly, hit the board at big prices in graded stakes. Over the past five years, according to DRF Formulator, the conditioner is 6-for-32 (19%) with a $2.97 ROI switching from turf or synthetic (which I tend to treat interchangeably) to dirt in graded events. Those runners have hit the board a very solid 38% of the time, and include the likes of Derby third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado and Preakness runner-up First Dude. More recent examples are GII Remsen S. winner O'Prado Again (El Prado {Ire}) (7-1), GII Fountain of Youth S. runner-up News Pending (Harlan's Holiday) (27-1) and GIII Gotham S. third-place finisher Finnegan's Wake (Powerscourt {GB}) (25-1). Cozzetti did break his maiden in the Churchill Downs slop and he has worked very quickly on the dirt at Gulfstream, but even if he hadn't, he'd be worth a long look purely because of the stats.

GIII Swale S. - While it seems like every favorite I've tried to go against this Triple Crown trail gets the job done at a deflated number, I'll keep at it and look to beat the two favorites here in horizontal wagers with a pair of alternatives. First in regards to the chalk--the connections of both Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie) and Motor City (Street Sense) have altered their charges' respective paths several times, calling into question the condition of both runners. It would be no surprise if either horse needed a race before showing up with their best. There also looms the possibility of a fresh Ever So Lucky getting caught up in a pace duel with Trinniberg (Teuflesberg) and Hello Prince (Halo's Image), and Motor City is better-suited to routes.
   Impressive maiden breakers Good Morning Diva (Lion Heart) and Bahamian Squall (Gone West) both possess the upside to pull off minor upsets. The former was fourth on debut in one of the hottest maiden races of the meet Jan. 5--four also-rans, including the deceptively named Good Morning Diva have returned to win, and another runner finished second next out. Good Morning Diva subsequently earned his diploma by 3 1/4 lengths going this distance in the slop Feb. 11, posting a field-best 87 Beyer Figure with a professional three-wide stalking score (video). Heavily backed runner-up Morgan's Guerrilla (Ghostzapper) returned to score at Aqueduct on the Gotham undercard after setting a blistering pace. The fact that Good Morning Diva's win came in the slop is of minor concern, but two of his dam's worst career performances came over ground with moisture in it, so the evidence doesn't suggest that he simply relished the going.
   Bahamian Squall only earned a 76 Beyer for his first-out win Feb. 5, but he did it relatively professionally (despite some issues with lead changes) from off the pace and leveled off nicely late (video). He has also been flattered by his competition, as runner-up Closerwalk (Street Sense) posted an 86 Beyer in victory here last Saturday. Bahamian Squall is a half-brother to the sometimes very fast Apriority (Grand Slam), who has displayed a particular affinity for Gulfstream. Trainer David Fawkes must think highly of Bahamian Squall, as this is only the second time in the past five seasons that he has run a horse in a graded stake off a debut win.

GII San Felipe S. - Truthfully, I'm not particularly interested in this race from a betting perspective, but I'll be watching closely to see how the two Empire Makers do, as both are high on my list of Derby horses. I advocated for using Empire Way last time in the GII Bob Lewis on the grounds that he seemed to be improving with every start and that he had an action that suggested dirt would be his preferred surface, and he took another step forward to be second at 11-1 with a 91 Beyer. He's hard to invest too much on in this spot because his style is not best for Santa Anita's incredibly quick main track and he may come up a bit short once again, but if he were to stick around his 6-1 morning line or drift at all he might be worth some win money. Either way, the full-brother to Royal Delta is one to keep an eye on as the distances get longer and the venue changes.
   Bodemeister's odds will be too short to play, but he has every right to announce himself a major Derby force. The bay couldn't have been much more impressive when stretched out to a mile here Feb. 11, as he controlled the pace before exploding in the lane under little encouragement to romp by 9 1/4 lengths with a gaudy (in this era) 101 Beyer (video). Bodemeister covered his final quarter in a very fast (not just for Santa Anita) :23.73, and third-place finisher and stablemate Stirred Up (Lemon Drop Kid) returned a winner last week. Bodemeister's pedigree screams Classic distances. His dam Untouched Talent (Storm Cat) was a SW and GSP sprinter and GSP router at two, but she was out of a MGSW turf router by A.P. Indy. Bodemeister's third dam was also a stakes-winning router, this time by major stamina influence Roberto; his fourth dam was a GSP router by Nijinsky II. By a Belmont winner with a dam side that goes Storm Cat to A.P. Indy to Roberto to Nijinsky--if that's not a pedigree for Classics, I'm not sure what is.

Christmas in July: My Morning with Zenyatta

-Sarah Andrew

The world waits with bated breath. Jockey Mike Smith's Facebook page reported that the superstar Zenyatta will foal within the next 24 hours. At last count, there were 656 comments on Zenyatta's most recent diary entry. Team Zenyatta tweeted that she was relaxed and yawning all day.

As I read these updates, my mind takes me back to a hazy July morning in 2011 when Lucas Marquardt and I had the pleasure of spending a little time with the great mare.

Since 2008, I had the privilege of photographing the bold, beautiful daughter of Street Cry a few times at the track. I've photographed thousands of horses in my life, from the Breeders' Cup to the World Equestrian Games to our local horse auction. No horse other horse has the presence of the great Zenyatta. On the track, she earned over $7,000,000 and she carried herself like she knew it.

She was poetry in motion when she glided over the track at Santa Anita.



She was a supermodel when she showed off her legs at bath time at Churchill Downs.



She always seemed to know where the camera was, and always thrilled the hordes of photographers who surrounded her and documented her every move.



In July, I visited Zenyatta at Lane's End Farm. Retired from racing and pregnant with her first foal, she had a serene look to her, but had not lost an ounce of charisma.



Life on the farm agreed with Zenyatta, just like track life did when she was a racehorse. When she was led out to her pasture, her walk was casual... a far cry from the trademark prowling dance she did before her races at the track.

Her famed dapples were still as big as apples, but had been kissed by the sun from the time spent in her pasture, grazing on Kentucky bluegrass.






It must be a challenging job to care for a mare as famous as Zenyatta, and her team strikes a perfect balance of caring for her every need while also letting her enjoy life as a horse. Tasty Temptation is the perfect companion for Zenyatta, and the two mares peacefully spend many hours together in their idyllic pasture.



Although she could have grazed on acres and acres of grass, Zenyatta chose to spend time with her human admirers, much to our delight.





And now, I go back to waiting with the rest of the world. I extend my very best wishes to Team Zenyatta for an easy and safe delivery for mare and foal, and a bright future for all.

Sophomore Spotlight: Gotham Analysis

--Brian DiDonato

This race clearly goes through Hansen (Tapit), but you have to think that with a large field and a few horses who have shown speed in the past that he won’t be allowed to waltz along on the front end on a track that should be wet. King and Crusader (Lion Heart) may hold the key to the race, then, because he is a speedy sprinter/miler who will undoubtedly pester the defending champ as long as he lines up and breaks reasonably well. While Hansen loses the blinkers for this, he’s not all of a sudden going to become Silky Sullivan--he’ll be on or pressing the pace and he probably won’t be alone.

I’m hoping for a hot pace, as the Gotham marks the return of my current Derby horse--Done Talking (Broken Vow). I already laid out his merits a while back here, and while I’ve seen some impressive performances in the interim that have caught my eye, I’m still sticking with Done Talking as my number one for the time being.

That he’s been off a while due to an illness is less than optimal, but he’s made up for lost time with a string of long-distance works at Laurel and trainer Hamilton Smith appears to be pleased with how his charge is doing. The conditioner has had decent enough recent success with horses coming off similar breaks over the past year, posting a $2.61 ROI with three wins from 19 tries.

The most flattering development for Done Talking has been subsequent performances turned in by El Padrino (Pulpit), who finished a head in front of Done Talking in the Remsen with a significantly better trip (closer to a very slow pace). This year, El Padrino has run a 100 Beyer (up from a 79 in the Remsen) to take a tough Gulfstream allowance Jan. 29, and then he scored at 4-5 in last weekend’s GII Risen Star S. with a 98 Beyer.

El Padrino isn’t the only runner to flatter the form of the Remsen, despite the top two finishers having not returned yet. Fifth-place finisher Our Entourage (Street Cry {Ire}) took a turfy optional claimer in Florida with an 85 Beyer Feb. 25; seventh-place finisher Stephanoatsee (A.P. Indy) was a solid second behind Alpha (Bernardini) in the Jan. 7 Count Fleet S. here with an 81 Beyer; and eighth-place finisher Speightscity (Speightstown) came back to take an allowance before, most recently, earning an 85 Beyer for a runner-up effort in the GIII Withers S. Feb. 4. Between the subsequent Beyers earned by Remsen also-rans, his trip in that race and the time off to develop, it’s very likely that Done Talking is capable of running much faster on the Beyer scale than he did last year.

My biggest concern, despite the pace not materializing, could be the distance (I’m not worried about a wet track--Done Talking has a 412 Tomlinson rating and plenty of runners in his family have done well in the slop). He has won twice going shorter than this, but the Remsen was nine furlongs and he seems like the type who will always do better with more ground.

At worst, I’m expecting a late-running third or fourth that sets him up for better going forward. At best, I’m expecting Done Talking to blow by the field late at double digit odds. Since a victory for Done Talking will depend on Hansen being softened up, in addition to a win bet I’ll also play some exactas with Done Talking and other closers--namely Tiger Walk (Tale of the Cat), My Adonis (Pleasantly Perfect) (who may or may not be a closer), Suns Out Guns Out (Empire Maker) and Stealcase (Lawyer Ron).

Done Talking works at Laurel last Saturday
Horsephotos

RRTP Trainer's Challenge Finale... in photos

--Sarah Andrew

 Over the years, I've attended the Pennsylvania Horse World Expo many times. The crowd that gathered in the Equine Arena to see the finale of the Retired Racehorse Training Project's Trainer Challenge was by far the biggest I've ever seen. The seats surrounding the arena were completely filled well before the 2pm start time, and the arena continued to fill well after the program began.

The events were delayed a bit as the Parade of Breeds completed. The fanciful Friesians and dedicated Days End Farm Horse Rescue drill team captured the imagination of the crowd and served as a brilliant contrast to the four Thoroughbreds who followed them.





When I attended the Maryland Horse World Expo in January, I wondered how much of an effect the five weeks of blogging, Facebooking, and tweeting would have on the attendance of the finale of the Trainer Challenge. Social media turned out to be a HUGE reason for the enthusiastic reception of the event. Each of the three trainers had their own fans and cheering sections, and the horses had become internet stars in their own right.

All four horses were ridden and led into the arena at the same time. Trainer Eric Dierks got right to work with his mare, Brazilian Wedding. She was visibly concerned with her surroundings, but as Eric worked with her, she settled and focused on her rider instead of the crowd and the other distractions. RRTP President Steuart Pittman asked the audience to be gentle with their applause, and the audience graciously complied.





Midatlantic Horse Rescue's Finger Lakes hero, Solidify, was led into the arena while trainer Tiffany Catledge worked with her second mount, High Level.



All four horses were in good flesh and had visibly built muscle during their 5-week training time. Excellent farriery kept their hooves balanced and healthy.







High Level was showcased first. I visited High Level and Tiffany Catledge just a few days before the Expo, and his gaits and balance had improved even within those few days. High Level was behind the curve and lost training time due to a sole bruise, but he caught up with the rest of the gang with leaps and bounds.





High Level sought contact with the bit, showed adjustability and elasticity in his gaits, and exhibited superb self carriage when his trainer showboated for the crowd and took her hands off the reins, reached her arms out, and cantered down part of the long side of the arena.



Over fences, High Level continued to impress us all.





You can see a loop in Tiffany's reins after the jump in the following photo. This shows a sympathetic rider, as well as a horse with natural rhythm and balance. Horse and rider were in such balance that it looked like they could have taken an entire course of jumps. The horse with the fewest training hours under his belt shows massive potential.



Trainer Kerry Blackmer has a gift for instilling confidence in a horse. Her trainee, Tempyst, was the youngest of the group and showed the most fire in his evaluations. In Kerry's training blog videos and at both expos, she always had a smile on her face and her horse seemed to appreciate her game attitude. As they made their way around the arena, Tempyst charmed the audience by fearlessly peeking through the railing and nosing people's hands for a pat.







Each trainer spent time preparing for the sights and sounds of the Expo, and every little detail, down to standing quietly while the trainers were mic'd up for their rides, was a test of training.



Once they got to work, Kerry and Tempyst wowed the audience and the judges with some greatly-improved trot work.





Over fences, Tempyst showed his age a bit when he greenly but gamely jumped a single cross rail and a one-stride line.





Molly Sorge referred to Eric Dierks as "The Professor" in her excellent Chronicle of the Horse writeup, and he truly schooled us. Watching his video blogs was like auditing a mini-clinic, and he gave the Harrisburg crowd a free lesson as he explained his ride on Brazilian Wedding.



Through Brazilian Wedding's body language, it was clear that her rider had helped her to relax in the strange surroundings. Her neck was tight when she entered the arena, and had loosened up by the time she did some work with Eric.



The sophistication of Brazilian Wedding's training was showcased when Eric counted strides down, "6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1" as he rode in to each jump. The mare's strides were consistent and adjustable, and Eric was able to clearly see distances as a result. She was capable of jumping the highest jumps of the group, and happily took cross rails, verticals, and small oxers. She knew her job, and she enjoyed it.





Solidify, the tall bay with the "10" canter, was the final horse ridden. Tiffany did an excellent job of bending him and settling him into a more relaxed trot and canter. Like Brazilian Wedding, Solidify's confidence was boosted by his skilled rider. Like the schooling ride I photographed earlier in the week, Tiffany used circles to let Solidify find his rhythm.





Over fences, Solidify was less focused than he was in his training videos, but still showed that great potential for collection before fences and power over them.



An hour was simply not enough time for this exhibition, and I wish it could have been longer. Judging the event were 3-time Olympian and legendary trainer Jim Wofford, CANTER executive director Allie Conrad, and author Alex Brown.



The judges gave their observations and awarded points to the trainers. The trainer with the most points was Eric Dierks, and he was announced as the winner of the challenge.





After taking a victory lap around the arena, the trainers returned to the RRTP booth for a brief Q & A with press and fans. From owners to trainers to fans, there was a collective feeling of pride. These horses, some off the track for less than a month, blossomed under the tutelage of three fantastic trainers, and exceeded all expectations.



I was concerned that the Trainer Challenge would be difficult to follow for anyone who was, unlike me and my friends, not compulsively following it online; I was pleasantly surprised to see that people seemed to understand what they were seeing. Although these horses were not bedazzled and sequined like the Friesians in the parade of breeds, they sparkled like the stars they are.

This is Part 5 in my series about the RRTP Trainer Challenge. Stay tuned next week for my closing thoughts on the Trainer Challenge. Here are the first four parts:
Day One
Day Two
Keeping Up With the Challenge
A Visit with Tiffany Catledge