BC Analysis: Saturday

--Brian DiDonato

CLASSIC - While Uncle Mo is the most talented horse in this race, he's a terrible bet here. He's simply had too much go wrong in 2011, and now must stretch out two furlongs to a distance he's never gone before. Havre de Grace is also a guaranteed underlay, in part because she's the type of horse who the public latches on to, and also because she's probably best at nine furlongs. Add to the mix a likely over-the-top, unproven on dirt So You Think, who in my estimation will be about a third the price he should be, and the value on a major contender continues to balloon. Flat Out is by far the most reliable runner in this race, and he's an absolute must-bet. While Havre de Grace beat him in the 1 1/8-mile Woodward, she got the jump on him after being closer to a below average pace. Flat Out was gaining on her late (his final eighth came in :12.75 to her :12.87), and also passed her during the gallop out. He had no trouble getting this distance last out in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and figures to get plenty of pace to run at. Game On Dude will be gunned to the lead because his connections have decided that he has to be ridden that way, and To Honor and Serve and the Repole pair shouldn't be far behind. Flat Out doesn't capture the public's imagination the way others in this field do, but he's undoubtedly the most likely winner of the Classic and sure to be a huge overlay.

MILE - This is an easy race to get excited about as a fan, but perhaps not quite as much as a bettor. The problem is that while the argument can be made that Goldikova has lost a step now at the age of six, she's still very much the horse to beat at a short price. To complicate things further, if you don't concede the race to her, you have to go very deep. I'll spread with a number of contenders to various degrees, and will also take a small shot with Byword to win. The Juddmonte homebred was just a half-length back of Goldikova in the G1 Prix d'Ispahan last May, and has had an abbreviated campaign in 2011, but may to be back in top form. He took the G2 Prix Dollar last time at Longchamp Oct. 1 despite traffic trouble, and runner-up Cirrus des Aigles flattered that effort big time by returning to annex the G1 Champion S. at Ascot over So You Think. Note that while most of Byword's major successes have come at longer distances, he does sport a 4-3-1-0 record at a mile.

JUVENILE - The notion that Union Rags overcame a bad trip in the Champagne couldn't be more misguided--he sat in the perfect spot behind a hot pace and had to wait only briefly for running room. The fact that he ran slower than filly My Miss Aurelia did in the Frizette one race earlier further tempers my enthusiasm. He can win and he has to be included protectively in pick 3s/4s, but he's going to be overbet. I think very highly of Dullahan, but if this race were on Polytrack or if he was in the turf race, I'd be much more confident in him. He's always been very green, but has shown flashes of serious ability, and he overcame an absurdly wide trip to finally break through in the GI Breeders' Futurity last time (his Trakus chart is amazing--he traveled 51 feet more than the runner-up, which equates to about six lengths). He's obviously got the pedigree to handle dirt, as he's a half-brother to Mine That Bird by a sire (Even The Score) who was versatile as a racehorse and has been versatile as a producer. It's hard to tell much from his early races on this track as they were sprints and he was extremely green, and his workout Saturday was uninspiring, but he doesn't strike me as a horse that would turn heads in the morning. There are plenty of reasons to believe he'll be fine on the main track, but he could also very easily be a trap horse, so I'll use him and make him my tentative top pick, but won't lean too heavily on him. The others I'll try to beat Union Rags with are Take Charge Indy, who feels like the type who could wake up in a big way on dirt and might get my win money depending on his price; visually impressive (albeit with an easy trip) G2 Royal Lodge winner Daddy Long Legs, who tries dirt for the first time and has an American pedigree; and untested speedster Hansen.

TURF - He's not exactly a secret, but I had a hard time getting past Sea Moon here. The Europeans clearly have this race locked up, and Sea Moon offers by far the most upside with just five starts under his belt. His eight-length romp in the G2 Great Voltigeur S. at York in August over a weak field earned a field's best 126 Racing Post rating, and came at this distance. He was clearly best in the G1 St. Leger last time, as he was trapped down inside of horses for almost the entire stretch run. That he finished third with the trip he had was a testament to his very serious ability, and note that Sir Michael Stoute used the St. Leger as a springboard to Conduit's first of two BC Turf wins. St Nicholas Abbey is the under-the-radar Euro, and is probably the race's second most likely winner.

DIRT MILE - The obvious players in here (The Factor, Wilburn, Caleb's Posse and Trappe Shot--think Shackleford's over the top) are no secret and will all be on my tickets somewhere, but how about Tres Borrachos to spice things up a bit? In a race where two of the favorites are stretch-outs, the 6-year-old veteran turns back off a fifth-place finish in the GI Goodwood in which battled through an opening half that was 13 points above par on the Moss Pace Figure scale. He was third in June going seven panels with a 98 Beyer, and took a weak renewal of the 1 1/16-mile GII San Diego H. with a 97--those figures probably aren't quite good enough to win this, but he did run consecutive 106s in 2009. His dam was a sprinter/miler, and he has always given the impression that he too would be best at 7-8 furlongs, but shockingly, he's only gone a flat mile once in his career. Tres Borrachos probably isn't as talented as some of these at their respective bests, but he could show up with something close to a career top, which would put him in the mix.

TURF SPRINT - Havelock is the most reliable runner in this race--he's won the last four turf sprints he's contested, and has the versatility to travel in mid-pack or towards the back. It seemed like he was left with way too much to do last time in the GIII Woodford, but he flew home late to get up and clear (the early pace was hot, however). He should get just enough pace to set up his late rally again, and even though his style isn't optimal for five furlongs, he sports a 6-4-0-1 record at the distance. A crazy longshot to include might be Grand Adventure, who has run races in the past that would win this for fun. He's been a disappointment in 2011, but he's had just enough of an excuse in most of his races this year that perhaps he can turn it around--especially on firm turf and at a shorter distance--at astronomical odds.

SPRINT - I'd love to lock this morning line in place, as Big Drama is a very significant underlay at 5-2, while Jackson Bend is a huge overlay at 7-2. The former has simply had too much go wrong this year to back with any confidence, and he's very unlikely to be at his best, which is something he'll have to be to hold off this group and defend his title. Jackson Bend has enjoyed a sharp form reversal since cutting back to one-turn races, and while trainer Nick Zito seemed a bit apprehensive to shorten his charge up to six furlongs rather than keep him at a mile, the chestnut is two-for-two at the trip. The 112 Beyer he earned in the GII Kelso H. when second to Uncle Mo came when dead last early behind a very slow pace, and he probably made his visually impressive bid to challenge last year's 2-year-old champ a bit prematurely. Force Freeze might be the longshot play. I made a case for him in an earlier post before the Vosburgh, and he almost ran down Giant Ryan to get it done in the mud. He appeared to slow down when tipped out into the center of the track, and may have been traveling in a deeper part of the lane than the winner. His stalking style could allow him to work out a nice trip.

JUVENILE TURF - Like the filly version of this event, this is clearly a spread race. With so many places to go, it seems like a good idea to start with the Euros. I want no part of exposed sprinter Caspar Netscher and, while he's got a shot and is certainly one to use, Farraaj seems to be a wise guy horse from what I've read and heard. Wrote is very interesting--or at least as interesting as a horse can be in an inscrutable race that anyone can win. I loved his performance to be third last time in the G2 Royal Lodge over Newmarket's Rowley Mile behind stablemate and Juvenile contender Daddy Long Legs. He was last early behind what seemed to be a slow pace set by his Ballydoyle buddy and, when producing his run, was inexplicably guided towards a blocked rail before being taken back outside by Jamie Spencer. He loomed ominously before tailing off a bit late, but the final furlong of that course is uphill (granted, the previous furlong is downhill), so going from a mile there to a mile at Churchill Downs could almost be considered a turn back. He gives the impression of a horse that will love a firm American turf course, and trainer Aidan O'Brien is having a huge year Stateside after suffering from an extended rough patch previously. I'm expecting a breakout performance from Wrote, and doubt any American horse can hang with him if he runs that sort of race.

MARATHON - I find it hard to get excited about this race, but Cease would pique my interest if he stayed at his 6-1 morning line price or somehow drifted up. The lightly raced 4-year-old from the connections that campaigned Blame turned in two serious efforts in the slop at Saratoga going nine furlongs, but showed he could handle a dry track and more distance when a close-up third in the GIII Hawthorne Gold Cup at 1 1/4 miles. It's possible that the outside was the place to be in Chicago that day, and Cease got a poor ride, hung out wide in no-man's land around the first turn and striking the front a bit too soon while switching inside to the dead rail. To be beaten only a half-length with a 98 Beyer was an accomplishment considering his trip, and he still has plenty of upside--the only question that remains is how much he'll be bet. . . he's sort of obvious.

BC Analysis: Friday

--Brian DiDonato

LADIES' CLASSIC - This race lost a lot of its intrigue with the defections of Blind Luck, Havre de Grace and, to a lesser extent, Aruna, but should serve as a definitive showdown between the top of this year's crop of sophomore fillies. While Plum Pretty is proven over the strip and It's Tricky has been very good at times, Royal Delta is the best of this bunch and will leave little doubt of that on Friday. The argument can certainly be made that Royal Delta's romp over the aforementioned pair in the Alabama was due mostly to the added eighth and that the CCA Oaks in which Royal Delta was a distant third behind It's Tricky and Plum Pretty at this distance was a better indicator of their relative abilities. But Royal Delta clearly needed the CCA Oaks off the bench after missing some training time, and it's hard to imagine that an extra furlong made that much of a difference for three fillies extremely well-bred to handle any distance of ground. And while Royal Delta regressed from a 97 Beyer to 91 when finishing second to Havre de Grace in the Beldame, she was forced to lay much closer than optimal because of the strange go-stop-go ride Life At Ten received and the ominous presence of the heavy favorite. She figures to have the pace in front of her to allow her to relax and has been working very well for this, so look for Royal Delta to sweep by in the lane and earn champion 3-year-old filly honors.

F/M TURF - This feels like a race you just want to survive in the pick 3s/4s. There are a number of logical contenders, but no huge secrets. I'd probably go with Nahrain on top, as she overcame some trouble to beat Announce in the G1 Prix de L'Opera last time. Announce's running lines (which include Cirrus des Aigles, Sarafina and Stacelita) make her a contender as well, while also flattering the lightly raced Nahrain.

JUVENILE FILLIES - My Miss Aurelia has displayed by far the most ability of this group so far, but she's no lock to get this two-turn route--especially with what looks like a ton of company up front. Her dam My Miss Storm Cat (Sea of Secrets) was a super speedy sprinter. Of the logical closers, Northern Passion should be the best price. The only question is whether she can handle the dirt, as her impressive and subsequently validated GIII Natalma win came on the Woodbine sod and her two previous good efforts were on the Polytrack. Northern Passion's first dam was all turf, but she's a full-sister to Canadian champion 2-year-old filly Ginger Gold (Golden Gear), a MSW on dirt and second in the GI Selene S. at this distance. Trainer Mark Casse has been dominant with his 2-year-olds up at Woodbine this season, and he upset the GI Stephen Foster H. in June here with turf-to-dirter Pool Play.

F/M SPRINT - I just don't buy the Turbulent Descent hype. Only her win in the GI Test last time against 3-year-olds broke the 100 Beyer mark, and now she's been off since early August. I understand that they decided early to keep her sprinting, but the way she has been managed screams vulnerability. There's no way she should be a shorter price than Switch, and there are quite a few longshots worth taking a look at. Tanda is the most intriguing of those longshots, as she has very serious back form that makes her plenty competitive here. The bay enjoyed a nice streak last year at three with a trio of wins, capped of by a defeat of Switch in the GIII Railbird at this distance at Hollywood with a 98 Beyer. She then shipped east for the GI Acorn at Belmont, and overcame a tardy start to be third behind Champagne d'Oro after making a crazy sweeping six-wide move turning for home. Tanda has been somewhat oddly handled since then, trying some turf and longer distances with mild success. She was switched from Dan Hendricks to Mike Mitchell two back, and has since annexed a weak renewal of the GIII Rancho Bernando H. on Del Mar's main track and finished third in the GIII Senator Ken Maddy down the hill at Santa Anita with a wide journey. She might find her old form for a conditioner who is 1-for-4 with 100% ITM going turf to dirt in stakes over the past five years, according to DRF Formulator.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF - This event is as inscrutable as you'll find all weekend, and has the look of a chaos race written all over it. I'm very much against the two favorites. Somali Lemonade's 14 post is a serious concern for her, and her deep closing style already makes her susceptible to traffic problems. It's hard to fault Elusive Kate's European form, but history shows that you are never supposed to take a short-priced European in a Breeders' Cup race. There are too many other higher priced options to concede that a Euro invader will win this race for the first time. On the morning line, Stephanie's Kitten is the value. Her third-place finish in the GIII Natalma was excellent considering how wide she was, and there was plently to like about her GI Alcibiades victory. A hot pace helped her, but the track was playing to inside speed and she rallied wide. Also-rans from that race ran one-two in last weekend's GII Pocahontas. It's very likely that Stephanie's Kitten will go off much lower than her morning line quote, however, and anything under 8-1 or so might not be value. While Stephanie's Kitten is probably coming down in odds from 12-1, the movement on Pure Gossip will probably be the opposite. She was let go at 23-1 when absolutely exploding in the GIII Miss Grillo at Belmont over soft sod, and perhaps the turf condition that day coupled with her connections, who are very well-known in New York, but not nationally, will let her get lost on the board. She's not without question marks--she enjoyed a dream trip in the Miss Grillo and that soft turf may very well have been to her liking (she hails from the family of yielding turf freak Street Game)--but the potential for her to actually be as good as she looked last time makes her interesting.

JUVENILE SPRINT - In all the Breeders' Cup races, Secret Circle might be the most likely winner. He has superior speed figures, and displayed the ability to rate last time in the Jack Goodman S. behind a hot pace. He can lay wherever he needs to, and should handle this field at a short number. If anyone's going to beat the chalk, it'll probably be Shumoos--mostly because she hasn't been proven inferior to Secret Circle on dirt yet. She has some interesting Euro form and a very nice American pedigree for sprinting on the dirt--her second dam was a MGISW going short and Distorted Humor can throw any type of runner.

Frankely Unbelievable

by Andy Belfiore

   It wasn’t his head-turning performance in the G1 Queen Elizabeth II S. at Ascot that was hard to believe. He’d done it before, treating elite rivals like maybe they should be running for a tag. No, it’s the fact that this superstar of the turf owned by Saudi Prince Khalid Abdullah is named for a Jewish guy from Brooklyn who once admitted in a Sports Illustrated article that, long before he became a Hall of Fame trainer, he knew so little about horses he thought they maybe ate meat.

   And it’s not as if Mr. Abdullah makes a habit of naming his horses for people. If you look at the very very very long list of champions and Classic winners bred and/or raced by Juddmonte, there isn’t a single one that honors a human. Many are the result of a mellifluous pairing of sire and dam...Jolypha (LYPHArd--NavaJO Princess), Wandesta (NashWAN--DE STAel), Ryafan (Lear FAN--CaRYA), for instance.

   If there had ever been the motivation to give an admiring nod to someone, the great Juddmonte broodmare Hasili gave her owner nine chances to do so. Instead, he chose names such as Dansili, Banks Hill, Heat Haze, Intercontinental, Cacique, Champs Elysees and Deluxe.

   But, after Bobby Frankel’s untimely passing in November of 2009, Mr. K. Abdullah took a look at the crop of yearlings getting ready to head to the track, and chose the best of the lot to pay his tribute. And it’s not hard to understand why.

   When Juddmonte was honored with the 2009 Eclipse Award for top breeder, racing manager Teddy Grimthorpe said during his acceptance speech, “Bobby Frankel was a major part of our success, not only in the U.S., but for Juddmonte worldwide. His care and attention towards the horses was second to none."

Racing Post photo

   Bobby Frankel could be as cantankerous as they come, but no one would argue his equine genius. It could not be more fitting that the horse named for him, who also has a tendency to be headstrong, has been second to none himself.

   The Prince, who normally shuns the spotlight as if it might burn him, was front and center as Frankel, the horse, galloped home to his ninth straight victory at Ascot last Saturday. After the race, he stated simply, “He is the best horse I have ever owned.”

   He obviously held Bobby Frankel in equally high esteem. And, even though it wasn’t always in his nature, somewhere up there, Bobby Frankel is smiling.

Book Review: The Scorpio Races, by Maggie Stiefvater

--by Nicole Mattei-Lincé

With the conclusion of her widely successful wolves of Mercy Falls trilogy, New York Times bestselling author Maggie Stiefvater now turns the page from one enchanted tale to the next, this time introducing readers to a new breed of mystical creature, the capaill uisce. The Scorpio Races (Scholastic Inc., 416 pages, $17.99) brings readers a dark tale of this “killer horse” and the people that choose to risk their lives in order to ride them.

Part horse and part what can only be described as “ocean,” the capaill instills both respect and fear in the local townspeople. Held every year, the Scorpio Races bring together the conquering instinct of man and the untamed viscosity of the capaill; the mix of energy creates a dangerous force that can either destroy the rider or lead him to ultimate victory. And the victory is your life; crossing the finish line first is just an added blessing. This delicate balance is ultimately upset when Puck, a young girl, decides to enter the race, the first female ever to ride. In order to keep what remains of her family together, Puck goes against everything her ill-fated parents would have wanted by entering the race, as their lives were taken by the very creatures she plans to ride.

In the same form as her previous novels, Stiefvater develops a strong female protagonist that readers can’t help but find a part of themselves in. Whether it be Puck’s determination, often irrational behavior (as she chooses to enter the race not riding a capaill uisce, but the everyday average American horse, Dove), or devotion to her family, there’s a bit of Puck in us all. Nonetheless, Puck’s brazen nature must be quelled, and her balancing opposition is found in Sean. Sean is everything Puck is not, but both share the fiercely independent and single-minded nature when it comes to horses. As they both train for the Scorpio Races, they discover a unifying balance between themselves, one that makes each of them a stronger individual and an equally stronger team--the same idea behind the relationship of the capaill and its rider.

Unlike the wolves of Mercy Falls trilogy, The Scorpio Races offers a convincingly dark tale from the opening lines. The common theme among both the climactic race and the novel is death and survival; the childhood mysticism isn’t as apparent as it was in Shiver, the first installment in the Mercy Falls series. Stiefvater has grown to explore the true origins of fairy tales and their dark beginnings. The Scorpio Races is a thrilling tale of dreams and desperation and how far you will go when everything you’ve ever believed in is put on the line.

The Scorpio Races is available today in hardcover wherever books are sold.

Maiden Breakers Shine on Stakes Loaded Weekend Racecards...

--Steve Sherack

With all of the focus on Breeders’ Cup preview races the past two weekends, and rightfully so, several maiden winners snuck in a bit under the radar with big-time performances.

COACH SICKIE (c, 2, Henny Hughes--Dixie Holiday, by Dixieland Band) looked like the real deal winning his Santa Anita debut for fun Oct. 1 (TDN Video).

Sent off at odds of 6-1, the Michael House colorbearer chased the early leaders in third through a sharp opening quarter in :21.45. With Alonso Quinonez aboard, the $90,000 FTMMAY juvenile graduate cruised up three wide to join the dueling pair entering the stretch and accelerated nicely down the lane to score by 5 1/4 lengths.

Coach Sickie, bred in Kentucky by Peter Blum, stopped the clock for 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:03.12 over the “fast” track, good for a 78 Beyer Speed Figure. Trained by Jeff Mullins, the bay has already gotten back to business in the a.m., posting a four-furlong breeze in :50.40 at Santa Anita Oct. 10. Coach Sickie is a half brother to GII Carry Back S. runner-up Smash (Smart Strike) and the multiple stakes winning mare Holiday Runner (Meadowlake), who went on to produce MGISW Seventh Street (Street Cry {Ire}).

GOLDEN HISTORY (f, 2, Medaglia d’Oro--User History, by Mr. Prospector) didn’t get much love from the Beyer boys, receiving only a 57 rating following her successful Woodbine unveiling Oct. 2 (TDN Video), but was visually impressive, nontheless.

Backed as the 8-5 favorite, the granddaughter of champion User Friendly (GB) (Slip Anchor {GB}) was outsprinted in seventh through fractions of :22.58 and :45.75. The dark bay began to roll while racing very wide on the turn for home and quickened impressively once switching over to her right lead in the stretch to score by 2 3/4 lengths, stopping the clock for seven furlongs in 1:24.74 over the Polytrack.

Golden History, bred in Kentucky by Stonewall Farm Stallions LLC, was the third highest-priced juvenile at the 2011 OBS March Sale, fetching $450,000 from trainer Mark Casse on behalf of owner John Oxley. She was also the most expensive 2-year-old filly to go through the ring for her leading sire in 2011.

The loaded Bob Baffert barn looks like it has a couple more future stars on its hands.

CONTESTED (f, 2, Ghostzapper--Gold Vault, by Arch), from the family of MGISW Pomeroy (Boundary), earned a “TDN Rising Star” tag with a sharp 6 1/2-length win at second asking at Santa Anita Oct. 2 (TDN Video). Breaking from post 11, the even-money favorite was away alertly and forced the early issue on the outside from third through a blazing opening quarter in :21.72. With Baffert’s go-to-guy Martin Garcia aboard, she revved up three wide on the far turn, took over in hand at the head of affairs and ran away and hid from ‘em in the stretch under mild urging.

Owned by Natalie J. Baffert, the $110,000 KEESEP yearling purchase covered six furlongs over the “fast” going in 1:08.95. She was awarded an 88 Beyer Speed Figure. Contested, bred in Kentucky by Cherry Valley Farm LLC, finished a good second behind the promising Egg Drop (Alphabet Soup) in her Del Mar unveiling Sept. 3. The latter failed to land a blow when finishing a disappointing 10th in the GI Darley Alcibiades S. at Keeneland Oct. 7.

FAST BULLET (c, 3, Speightstown--Renfro Valley Star, by Dayjur), a grandson of champion Brave Raj (Rajab), proved to be well worth the wait, airing by 6 1/4 lengths in his debut at the Great Race Place Oct. 9 (TDN Video).

Not much of a secret at 7-5 while sporting a typical flashy Baffert worktab, the blinkered chestnut was hustled to the front and raced under heavy pressure on the inside through fractions of :21.84 and :44.80. Seemingly unphased by his early efforts, the Zayat Stables representative found another gear when asked the question by Martin Garcia in the stretch and kept finding more to report home an eye-catching winner.

The final time for six was furlongs over the “fast” surface was 1:08.59. One race earlier on the card fillies and mares in the 6 1/2-furlong Louis R. Rowan S. covered the same distance in 1:08.86 before stopping the clock in 1:15.

The half-brother to GIII Hollywood Juvenile Championship S. runner-up Blairs Roarin Star (Roar), bred in Kentucky by Roy Gottlieb, earned a 92 Beyer. He was purchased for $230,000 as a KEESEP yearling.

She's Back...

--Gary King

Black Caviar (Aus) returns to the track in Saturday's G2 Schillaci S. at Caulfield, trying to equal the mighty Phar Lap's tally of 14 straight wins. The world's greatest sprinter was flawless last season, and has apparently improved physically over the break. She was an incredibly impressive specimen as a four-year-old, so this improvement must be a scary prospect for her rivals at the weekend. Even if the superstar mare fails to progress, Timeform has her 20lbs clear of the field on last season's form. Black Caviar’s effortless stroll in the G1 Newmarket H. at Flemington, where she defeated a high-class field, highlights her remarkable quality. Click here for race replay.

Peter Moody has mapped out a similar route to last season, taking in the G2 Schweppes S. at Moonee Valley Oct. 22 and the G1 Patinack Farm Classic at Flemington Nov. 5, before possibly embarking on an international campaign in 2012. Seeing Australia's equine heroine taking on the world's best at Royal Ascot next year would be a real treat for racing enthusiasts around the world. Saying that, Black Caviar's most difficult assignment could rest a little closer to home. Sepoy (Aus), a rare winner of the G1 Golden Slipper/G1 Blue Diamond double during a most impressive juvenile campaign, made a winning reappearance in the G1 Manikato S. at Moonee Valley last weekend. Despite stumbling at the break, Peter Snowden’s charge earned a 128+ Timeform rating in what looked to be a competitve renewal on paper. Sepoy became the Manikato’s highest rated winner in the last 25 years, and the first sophomore to capture the spoils since Redoute's Choice in 1999. Darley would love if he could go on and emulate Redoute's impressive record at stud, too...

The much anticipated Black Caviar - Sepoy duel is similar to what developed, or failed to develop, between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra in the US last year. The Australians are an extremely proud and competitive nation, and the chances of these two facing off is highly likely. Black Caviar versus Sepoy would shake things up in the Antipodes, and could possibly show the way for other racing nations where defeat is often seen as a travesty. Racing is a competitive sport, and horses of this caliber running against each other is what the game is all about. In my opinion, neither horse would lose much in defeat and their lofty reputations would/should remain intact regardless of the outcome.

Second Chances: Juvenile Maidens to Keep an Eye On

--Steve Sherack

The maiden watch continues in Steve Sherack’s latest installment of Second Chances. Click here to view previous blogs.

CONQUESTA (f, 2, Empire Maker--Turn to Lass {SW, $138,760}, by Bright Launch) ran a remarkable race to place second at 39-1 in her unveiling over the Belmont lawn Sept. 11 (TDN Video).

The Marc Keller colorbearer was away without a hitch from the dreaded one hole and settled into stride while racing in eighth through fractions of :22.46 and :46.40. With Joe Bravo aboard, the $200,000 FTKJUL yearling purchase made an eye-catching sweeping move on the turn for home to slingshot herself into the lead at the head of affairs. She quickly opened a clear advantage and looked to be well on her way to a victory in the stretch, but understandably got a little leg weary late, and couldn’t hold the rally of firster Somali Lemonade (Lemon Drop Kid), who powered to a 1 3/4-length win. The final time for the seven-furlong affair over the “good” going was 1:23.30. Conquesta, bred in Kentucky by Hurstland Farm and Kevin McLaughlin, was awarded a very respectable 82 Beyer. She has returned to the worktab with a pair of easy four furlongs moves over the Belmont training track, most recently covering the distance in :50.81 Oct. 3.

It’s been a pretty quiet year for trainer Robert Ribaudo [five wins from 52 starters], but his barn has suddenly come alive during the Belmont fall meeting, saddling two winners and a second-place finisher from only six starters.

DENDRITE (c, 2, Rockport Harbor--Tustin, by Conquistador Cielo) could be live at a price following a sixth-place finish at 59-1 in his grass debut at Belmont Sept. 17 (TDN Video). Away from the stalls sharply, he bumped slightly with the eventual winner at the start after breaking outward, then quickly dropped back to settle in sixth through easy fractions of :24.25 and :49.29.

Racing well within himself beneath five-pound apprentice Irad Ortiz Jr, the bay began to advance while under a tight hold entering the bend, made a strong four-wide move on the turn to challenge for command at the top of the lane, but failed to quicken in the stretch, and reported home 3 3/4 lengths behind the well-bred Our Entourage (Street Cry {Ire}--Sand Springs). The final time for the 1 1/16-mile affair over the “firm” going was 1:43.81. Our Entourage has been entered to make his next start in Saturday’s GI Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland.

Dendrite, owned in partnership by William Punk Jr. and Philip DiLeo and trained by David Donk, earned a 63 Beyer. Bred in Kentucky by Richard Forbush, he failed to meet his reserve twice in the sales ring, RNA’ing for $19,000 as a KEENOV weanling and $14,500 as a KEESEP yearling. The bay turned in a three-furlong move in :35.85 over the Belmont training track Oct. 4. He is entered to make his second career start in the fifth race at Belmont on Saturday, a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight on grass (BRIS PPs).

There’s plenty of upside for Samuel H. Rogers Jr.’s homebred SATURDAY'S FOR FUN (c, 2, Any Given Saturday--Changing World {GSW, $394,749}, by Spinning World), who finished with interest to complete the trifecta at 8-1 in his Belmont unveiling on the turf Sept. 28 (TDN Video).

Nudged along in third through an opening quarter in :23.59, the Barclay Tagg trainee showed a little immaturity in the stretch, but looked good once leveling out late to finish within 3 1/2 lengths of good-looking first-time starter Summer Front (War Front), a $475,000 KEEAPR graduate. The final time for six furlongs over the “good” course was 1:11.80. Saturday’s for Fun earned a 54 Beyer.

Rogers’s history with Saturday’s for Fun’s family dates all the way back to the third dam Reach for It (Ack Ack), who he acquired as a broodmare for $65,000 at the 1992 KEENOV sale. He enjoyed more than his share of success campaigning Saturday’s for Fun’s first two dams--Changing World and Reach the Top (Cozzene)--collecting graded stakes victories with each.

Woodford Racing’s BATTLE FORCE (c, 2, Giant’s Causeway--Leo’s Pegasus {SP, $193,312}, by Fusaichi Pegasus) looks like a good one to keep an eye out for on the West Coast.

Making his debut going a mile over the Santa Anita sod Oct. 1 (TDN Video), the bay showed little early interest trailing the field of nine through fractions of :23.22 and :47.73. With Mike Smith in the irons, he hit the gas with a sharp outside move on the turn for home, entered the stretch at least six wide, and was outkicked to the wire by Silentio (Silent Name {Jpn}), who shot through an opening along the rail in the stretch after saving all the ground to score by 3/4 of a length. Battle Force completed the exacta at odds of 10-1.

The final time over the “firm” going was 1:35.73. Battle Force, trained by John Shirreffs, earned a 68 Beyer. He was bred in Kentucky by Manganaro LLC.