A Live Queen's Plate Longshot

--Brian DiDonato

   I don’t think I’ve ever picked a Queen’s Plate winner. I did talk my father off last year’s 16-1 upsetter Midnight Aria, however. He wasn’t very happy. So consider that a disclaimer before I state my case for a horse who I think is an extremely live longshot in Sunday's feature...
   Three of the last four Queen’s Plates have been won by the pacesetter: Big Red Mike (2010, 5-1), Strait of Dover (2012, 7-2) and Midnight Aria (2013, 16-1). Despite an average of 13 horses in those three renewals, North America’s longest-running race seems to differ significantly in terms of dynamics from the U.S. equivalent. The nature of the Kentucky Derby makes it close to impossible to go box to wire, but the Queen’s Plate seems to feature the opposite phenomenon in recent years. Maybe it’s the different surfaces the two races are contested over, or maybe I’m just being fooled by randomness, but I expect this recent trend to continue in 2014.
   Heart to Heart, who’s 30-1 on the morning line but will likely go off at about half that price at post time, was a decent, if not standout 2-year-old last term while trained by Mike Stidham. He was beaten a nose in the six-panel Vandal S. here last August while finishing ahead of two other Queen’s Plate runners, and finished off his juvenile campaign with a fourth-place run in the nine-furlong Coronation Futurity in which a number of these horses competed. That final 2013 effort wasn’t bad considering he was a bit headstrong early and was being asked to carry his speed over a distance that’s probably a bit too far for most 2-year-olds.
   Subsequently transferred to Brian Lynch, Heart to Heart resurfaced in a grassy one-mile Keeneland allowance in April, and couldn’t have been much more impressive setting quick splits before drawing off to win by 6 1/4 lengths. He earned a 92 Beyer Speed Figure for that effort--tied with Lexie Lou’s Woodbine Oaks win for the fastest race by any horse in the Queen’s Plate. Jessica’s Star, second in that allowance, has won three times since then, including last Saturday’s GIII Iowa Derby.
   Heart to Heart was a very close sixth last time in the Marine S., but I think you can toss that effort. His rider took a hard hold of him early despite what looked like a significant pace edge, and he just wasn’t quite as effective. Now Eurico Rosa da Silva, winner of the 2009 and 2010 Queen’s Plates climbs aboard, and there’s no way he won’t send Heart to Heart.
   The distance might prove too far, but the aforementioned Strait of Dover was also by English Channel (who could obviously run all day himself), and I’ll take my chances in the stretch if Heart to Heart can get to that point without much pressure.

Bonus Pick: I really like Main Sequence in Monmouth's GI United Nations S. He has some very good European form and Graham Motion does extremely well with foreign imports making their first Stateside starts.

NYRA Situation Sounds All Too Familiar

--by Kelsey Riley

While ­reading Bill Finley’s Op/Ed titled “NYRA Is For Sale. But Who Would Want It?” In Friday’s TDN, I admittedly felt chills run down my spine when I read the following excerpt:

   “There’s every reason to believe that this anti-racing governor who keeps hoovering cash from casino companies will find a way to cut racing out of the equation, whether that means taking VLT revenue away from the track operator or from purses or from both. State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli issued what was a scary threat back in August when releasing an audit of VLT racino revenues. ‘We are unable to determine whether the millions of dollars that pay for increased purses (prize money), rather than for education, are having their intended effect.’”

   (for the full Op/Ed column, click here).

   For anyone who has kept a close eye on the racing business over the last few months, and years, there are some keys phrases here that are all too familiar.

   Last year while interning at the TDN, I wrote a magazine feature on what was then the future of New York racing: the Aqueduct racino (click here to read). I have to admit upon starting the project I wasn’t fully convinced that a racino would solve all the State’s woes. Therefore, I asked administrators the hard questions: what would stop the government from tweaking the agreement and encroaching on NYRA’s share of the VLT revenues, such as we had already seen in Pennsylvania and Indiana at the time? I was assured by a number of parties that the NYRA racetracks were different from most others, because NYRA is a not-for-profit organization, and its arrangement with the State created “layers of legislation” that would make it difficult for the government to alter the agreed upon distribution of the VLT revenues. So long as Aqueduct, Belmont, and Saratoga were being run by NYRA, the VLT revenues would be safe. I was told that NYRA and Genting had modeled the racino after Woodbine’s (also run by a not-for-profit), so what could go wrong?

   As we have learned this year from Woodbine, a lot can go wrong, and very quickly. In early March, the Ontario government announced they were considering pulling racing’s 20% share of the revenues from the Slots at Racetracks agreement, which had fuelled purses and breeders awards at the province’s Thoroughbred and Standardbred tracks for more than 15 years. Just a few weeks later, the government officially ended the Slots at Racetracks program, throwing the industry (and particularly the breeding sector) into turmoil. Stallion nominations were cancelled left, right and center, a handful of stallions have since been exported from the province, and the Ontario-bred yearling sale earlier this month experienced significant declines. What is more, it has been truly disheartening how the government has fabricated outright lies to justify its behavior to the public: they have described the racetracks’ cut of the slots revenues ($345 million a year) as a “subsidy” to rich racetrack owners, and they have depicted these “rich racetrack owners” as taking money away from education for school children and healthcare for the elderly. The truth is that the racetracks’ 20% was used to fuel purses and breeders awards, which stimulated growth in the breeding industry and therefore had positive reverberations across the province’s agricultural industry. Growth of the racing and breeding industries also allowed them to spend nearly $2 billion annually within the province. Furthermore, these “subsidies” were in fact a revenue-sharing agreement, because Ontario’s racetracks provided the government existing infrastructures in which to build its casinos. The racing industry’s share of the revenue also offered some compensation for the risk that casino players would take away from racing’s wagering customers.  

   While the distribution of revenues from the Aqueduct racino have yet to be altered, my point is that recent developments show that it may not be all that difficult for it to happen. Look how easy it was for Cuomo to demand that NYRA be sold, when it was under contract to run racing in New York for 25 years. At this point nothing is set in stone, and we can only guess what future operation of the NYRA tracks will look like, but to me, the situation (as well as wording in recent reports, like Finley’s) are eerily similar to what we have seen in Ontario. I certainly hope I am wrong.   

Sophomore Spotlight: North of the Border

--Brian DiDonato

A trio of interesting stakes for sophomores will take place at Woodbine Sunday, and all three should offer good wagering value.

Inglorious, undefeated over the track, is the 5-2 morning line favorite for the $500,000 Woodbine Oaks and, for some reason, is considered the early favorite for the Queen’s Plate against the boys in three weeks. She’s certainly talented and is probably the most likely winner of Sunday’s event, but she is far from unbeatable. Her Beyer Figures are no better than most of her competitors and, as a daughter of Hennessy, she might be stretching her pedigree slightly at 1 1/8 miles. Her dam was a stakes winner at nine furlongs, however, and her half-brother Sebastian’s Song (Cherokee Run) was third in the Plate Trial--he did seem to have some distance limitations, though.

Marketing Mix has a ton of upside and will finally get to go two turns--she’s by Medaglia d’Oro out of the Kris S. mare Instant Thought, who is a daughter of MGSP turf router Nimble Mind (Lyphard). The dark bay came with an impressive late run to graduate at 6 1/2 furlongs at Keeneland in her second race Apr. 10 and show horse Divalarious (Distorted Humor) was a very impressive graduate on the Belmont sod a week and a half ago. Marketing Mix was left with far too much to do last time in the Fury S., but put in a solid late run to cut the margin between her and Roxy Gap--who probably doesn’t want to go this far--to 3/4 of a length. The 6-1 morning line quote on Marketing Mix is more than fair, and she’d be worth a win bet at 7-2 or better.

Bear’s Chill is a suspect favorite in the Plate Trial. While he has been very impressive in his last two efforts, both came in sprints. He went 8 1/2 furlongs on the grass at Gulfstream before that, and was fourth as the chalk--the only time he has ever finished off the board. He might have needed a race off the bench, his sire was a MGSW at the distance and GISP going longer and his dam was second in the Woodbine Oaks and GSP at 1 1/4 miles but, considering what price he will be, it makes sense to play against Bear’s Chill. Second choice Check Your Soul is a much more likely winner than the favorite. He is proven around two turns--having broken his maiden at 1 1/8 miles on the grass at Keeneland before taking the Wando S. here last time in fast-closing fashion. He traveled his final 5/16ths in a speedy :29.37 while last behind an early pace that came up about as slow as you’ll see on the Moss Pace Figure scale. As if it were earned in a slow-paced turf race, the 74 Beyer Check Your Soul earned last time is not indicative of the quality of his performance because of how slow they went early.

The two maidens in this group are also dangerous and will offer good value both on top and, probably more realistically, underneath. Speed Ring, who I’ve mentioned here before, set the pace on an anti-speed surface at Keeneland when unveiled in April and was taken very wide in his second start here while bet off the board to be the more-fancied half of a 4-5 entry. He finished third, but covered so much more ground than the winner that it can be argued he was best. He’s a full to a Canadian champion 2-year-old filly out of a champion 3-year-old filly and, as a son of A.P. Indy, might have needed a few races to show his best. This is a very aggressive move by trainer Mark Frostad, and it appears that Speed Ring is primed for a big effort against a group that isn’t overly intimidating. Imhotep was a very nice second first out on the turf at Gulfstream, but was caught extremely wide as the favorite over the Keeneland poly while being rushed up early, and understandably tired to fifth in the lane. According to Trakus Data, he traveled 61 more feet than the winner, which accounts for all but a half-length of the 7 1/2 lengths Imhotep was beaten that day. Todd Pletcher is seven-for-19 (37%) on the Woodbine main track over the last five years (stat courtesy of DRF Formulator). I’ll make a small win bet on Speed Ring, but will focus more of my attention on exactas of Check Your Soul over Speed Ring and Imhotep. I’ll also play the reverse combos and the all maiden exacta for less.

If the morning line odds hold up in the Alywow S., Speightstown Lady will be a very significant overlay. She was a sharp debut winner on the main track here Apr. 3, and set an extremely fast pace before getting passed by Bibi’s Doll, who came from last, in an allowance 20 days later. She’s the speed of the speed here, and her dam, a MSW and GSP sprinting, won her turf debut at a mile at Keeneland.