Sophomore Spotlight: No Factor

--Brian DiDonato

We saw longshot winners Saturday take both the Arkansas Derby and Bluegrass, but the races could not be more opposite in how productive they should prove come Kentucky Derby day.

While I picked Brilliant Speed to win the Bluegrass in my preview of the race, I do not consider him a contender for the Derby. I handicapped the race as if it were on turf, and the best turf horse won. Brilliant Speed’s two tries on dirt to begin his career were obviously at distances dramatically shorter than what he figured to be best at, but he never showed any life in those early events and has never turned in a reasonably quick work on dirt. Dynaformer can get very good dirt routers (Barbaro, Dynever, and Perfect Drift), but his runners will always be geared a little bit more towards grass. Brilliant Speed also gets a reasonable amount of surface versatility from his dam’s side, but performance always outweighs pedigree, and what he has shown on the track suggests that he is not well-suited for the Churchill Downs main track.



Brilliant Speed Gets Up. . . Barely                         (c) EquiSport

Brilliant Speed’s run in and of itself--rather than how it projects for the Derby--is hard to interpret. He put in a very visually impressive run from dead last and got his last three furlongs in :34.75, but the track was blatantly anti-speed all weekend, reminiscent of how it was two or three years ago. The Moss Pace Figures for the Bluegrass suggest that the pace was absolutely glacial, but I don’t think they can be taken at face value considering the nature of the surface. Brilliant Speed’s 89 Beyer Speed Figure was low compared to what other members of his generation have been running but, again, the number cannot be relied upon heavily because of the way the race was run and the surface over which it was run (Note: Beyers and Moss Pace Figures use the same track variant--so their interpretation of the speed of the track is identical). While Brilliant Speed was the beneficiary of a track that played to his running style, he took advantage of those fortuitous circumstances in impressive fashion--horses can have things go their way and still be given credit for good performances. Brilliant Speed will be dangerous when put back on the turf this summer in races like the Secretariat or Virginia Derby, just like last year’s Bluegrass place horse Paddy O’Prado was, but don’t expect much from him in Kentucky unless the track comes up muddy. Runner-up Twinspired ran more against the grain of the track than Brilliant Speed, but the worst race of his career came in his only dirt start. He is unlikely to factor on May 7.

Archarcharch Holds off Nehro; KY Derby Quinella?
(c) Horsephotos

Whereas the Bluegrass did not produce any serious Derby contenders, The Louisiana Derby featured what I consider to be the two most likely horses to get the roses. Both Archarcharch and Nehro have the right running style (somewhere between stalker and closer) to win the Derby and the necessary stamina for 1 1/4 miles, and the 98 Beyer Speed Figures they each received is the highest number earned in the final round of Derby preps. The respective trips of the one-two finishers were pretty much a wash; Nehro saved more ground early, but Archarcharch got the jump on him turning for home. The pace was fast for the first quarter, but the frontrunners were able to slow things down for the middle part of the race and should have had plenty left if good enough. This was a fairly run event--it did not feature the pace collapse that some seem to think it did. Going forward, I still prefer Nehro. He seems to have a bit more upside and room for continued improvement, although his lack of seasoning is cause for concern. Both colts are sired by stamina influences, but while Nehro’s siblings were better routers, Archarcharch’s dam was a pure sprinter. Nehro also galloped out in front Archarcharch. Both will be featured prominently on my Derby tickets, but Nehro’s still number one on my list.

The Factor’s performance was disappointing and obviously does not bode well for the Derby. I suppose it’s possible that his very dull effort can be explained by him displacing, but he never seemed comfortable rating. In what was supposed to be the true test of his stamina and ability to handle an adverse pace scenario, The Factor simply came up short. He is undoubtedly talented, but if he goes on to Churchill he will once again be very vulnerable. The Factor’s best hope in the Derby would be to send hard early. Under the right circumstances and on the right track, if he were to clear, he would have a chance to hang on for a piece late, but the likelihood of him being able to get the lead without any pressure is very low. Dance City doesn’t have the graded earnings to get into the Derby, but his performance was solid and much better than expected. One of the toughest trips in racing is to be the horse chasing the leader, but the way he dug in and ran on was very encouraging. Sway Away’s run was produced much too prematurely. He has not been given the opportunity to showcase the ability he flashed in the San Vicente in his last two, but will at some point--probably when turned back to a one-turn mile or seven furlongs.

The upcoming Lexington should be an interesting event featuring some runners trying to sneak into the top 20 in graded earnings. Check back later this week for a preview, and perhaps a discussion of the Jerome in New York if it draws an interesting field.

Oh Brethren, Where Art Thou?

-- Lucas Marquardt

Bet now or forever hold your peace is a popular saying nowhere. Except in my house. Or, at least since I thought of it several seconds ago, it could be. This thought, in the wake of Uncle Mo's loss last weekend, which may or may not be explained by the announcement of a GI infection. I like Uncle Mo just fine, and I like his connections more, but as he jogged back to the winner's circle after romping in last year's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, I said to no one in particular that this wasn't a Kentucky Derby horse. In light of his upset, this sounds like unremarkable hindsight--it isn't, especially since the Derby is still three weeks away. Moreover, I'm wrong so much more often than I'm right, and plenty of people shared this opinion, so there's no claim of victory or originality. But he struck me as a fleet, fast-developing sort (like War Pass, a comparison made earlier in the week on the blog of the TDN's Brian DiDonato, or like paternal sibling Indian Blessing), and not that kind that grows into a true route horse.

Toby's Corner wins Wood Memorial; Uncle Mo (rail) third

Anyway, the point being is that I was waiting until Kentucky Derby day to bet against the juvenile champ. I didn't (and don't) think he's a 10-furlong horse, or really a nine-furlong horse, but I figured his talent and class would pull him through to an easy victory in the in the GI Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. Everybody did. That's why he was 1-9. And at 1-9, what better time to pout your money where your mouth is? Instead,  I took what could be called the most tepid stand against a horse that's ever been taken. I played a $1 trifecta with Toby's Corner (second choice, at 8-1), Arthur's Tale (third choice, at 20-1) and Duca (fifth choice, at $26.75-1) in the first spot, Uncle Mo in the second an the same three horses in the third spot. The bet cost $6.

If I had a bit more foresight, or a lot more gumption, I could have done well on the race. The $2 exacta paid $158. The $2 trifecta paid $183--and would have paid exponentially more had Uncle Mo faded to fourth. Those are huge numbers considering the fact that we're talking about the second choice winning the race and the third betting choice finishing second. To top it off, the fourth betting choice, the 26-1 Norman Asbjornson, ran fourth and completed a $867 superfecta.

This will be on my mind when I bet Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, where the The Factor (War Front) will be favored over Oaklawn Park's 1 1/8 miles. He is 7-5 in the morning line, but as the Great Gray Hope in what has been thus far a disappointing three-year-old crop, he could be odds-on by post time.

I feel about The Factor the way I feel about Uncle Mo: wickedly talented…but a miler at heart (again, no claims of originality here). Despite his considerably speed, I actually have a little more confidence in The Factor to see out nine furlongs right now, partly because I love the way Bob Baffert has been training him, with a steady diet of six-furlong drills, and partly because his fluid, efficient stride never seems to shorten. But I've  seen a number of classy sprint types run great in their first route, in this case his dominant win in the GII Rebel S., only to regress dramatically in their second go at two turns. I have no empirical data to back this up, so this must be taken with a grain of salt…and some lime…and possibly some low-grade tequila.

So who will it be Saturday? Well, here's what I'm playing for the trifecta: On top, Zayat's Nehro (Mineshaft), whose middle move in his maiden win two back was downright sexy, and which was followed by a strong up-the-rail second in the GII Louisiana Derby. I'll also use Batman Stable, et al stable's Sway Away (Afleet Alex). I would have liked to see him pick up some more stragglers than he did when sixth in the GII Rebel S. last time, but he ran a nice one when 3/4 lengths adrift of The Factor in the GII San Vicente S. and gets the addition of blinkers.

WinStar Farm homebred Brethren        Tampa Bay photo

And last, the Todd Pletcher-trained Brethren (Distorted Humor), the forgotten stepchild of the Derby trail right now. The way I figure, if Brethren had won his last start (third as the 1-2 pick in the GII Tampa Bay Derby Mar. 12), he's probably third choice in the Derby wagering right now. As is, Super Saver's little brother was a regressive but unembarrassed third in the Tampa Bay Derby--his first loss--enters this off two bullets at Palm Meadows, and is 10-1 on the morning line. He's a better horse than that. Brethren has every right to rebound, and the narrative roughly mirrors that of a year ago: Pletcher has a big gun (Eskendereya) in the weeks leading up to Derby but it's the WinStar homebred (Super Saver) who comes through. Brethren went off at 36-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool, and I wish I'd remembered to put at least a few bucks on him.

In second, we'll add The Factor, then throw in Elite Alex (Afleet Alex), who made up a lot of ground from last to be fourth in the GII Louisiana Derby last out, in the third position.

So, the ticket looks like this:

2, 5, 6
2, 4, 5, 6
2, 3, 4, 5, 6

= $27

If The Factor doesn't hit the board, I imagine the trifecta will pay a minimum of $175 for a dollar, so a decent return on our money if we're lucky enough to win, even using perfectly logical horses. Good luck with whatever you're playing this weekend…

Oh, and a side note: I hope I'm dead wrong about The Factor. I hope he romps by 10. I like the bloodstock agent who bought him as a yearling, Kim Valerio, and I like it when guys who pour money into the sport, like George Bolton, do well. And it would be nice to see a superstar emerge from this crop. Even if my money's not on it.

Sophomore Spotlight: Bluegrass and Arkansas Derby Previews

--Brian DiDonato

   The complexion of Saturday’s GI Bluegrass, which will be run on Polytrack at Keeneland for the fifth time Saturday, has changed dramatically in recent years as it has become clear that turf horses excel over the surface. Half of this year’s field last raced on grass, and all but one entrant has tried the sod at least once in his career. The race has yielded quirky results, and giant pay-offs. The winner’s average odds over the last four years is 17.8-1. Two runners from Polytrack runnings of the Bluegrass have gone on to hit the board in the Derby. Street Sense, who was second in a three-way photo in 2007, obviously went on to win. He had serious dirt form, though, having taken the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile under the Twin Spires the previous fall. Paddy O’Prado was second last year before finishing third in the Derby, but his Derby performance was aided by the sloppy surface and he would go on to do his best work on the lawn.

Santiva gallops over the Poly (c) Wendy Wooley/EquiSport

   Favored Santiva seems to be the most versatile runner in the group. Second while still a maiden over this strip in the GI Breeders’ Futurity last term, he took the GII Kentucky Jockey Club in Louisville to end 2010 and was second in the GII Risen Star at Fair Grounds in his only other outing this year. Up until the Risen Star, the biggest knock on Santiva was his low Beyer Speed Figures, but the drastically improved 91 he earned in his sophomore debut stands out in this group. An impressive winning performance would probably make him a Derby contender. If you are inclined to wager on an event like this, however, it’s hard to take a short price--especially on a horse who has a propensity to run second (5:1-3-1 record) and in a race where the recent results have been head-scratchers.

   Brilliant Speed doesn’t look like much on paper, but further examination into his form yields some interesting findings. In his first start on firm turf at the end of 2010, the Live Oak homebred beat Extensive, who would later finish one slot behind Spiral winner Animal Kingdom in a Gulfstream allowance before taking a listed stake at Tampa last Saturday. Brilliant Speed was stepped right up into the Dania Beach on the turf at Gulfstream off his maiden win, and came just a nose short after getting stuck behind a wall of horses in the lane and having to alter course significantly to find racing room. Also-rans in that heat include Rushaway winner Swift Warrior and fellow Bluegrass competitor Twinspired. Brilliant Speed last appeared in the Hallandale Beach and finished third, beaten only a neck. Stablemate King Congie--also entered in the Bluegrass--came out significantly on Brilliant Speed in the lane, however, and was demoted from first to third. Once again, Brilliant Speed was best but didn’t make it into the winner’s circle. As a son of Dynaformer, Brilliant Speed should appreciate the added ground. He is out of an unraced Gone West mare who sold for $1.45M as a yearling and who herself is out of a GISP half-sister to Belmont and Haskell winner Touch Gold and Canadian champion 3-year-old and MGSW With Approval. Brilliant Speed’s form coming into this race also resembles that of stablemate Arthur’s Tale, who was a narrow second in last weekend’s Wood Memorial for Tom Albertrani.

Sensational Slam (outside) gets up in Capossela
(c) Jessie Holmes/EquiSport

   Team Valor’s Crimson China, already a winner over Polytrack last year at Wolverhampton, showed an impressive late kick in his first U.S. start over the Gulfstream sod at this distance in February and garnered the “TDN Rising Star” tag for that allowance win. He then overcame a significant pace disadvantage over a similar surface at Turfway in the Rushaway. Last early, Crimson China finished second in a race dominated by speed. He is very well-suited for this race, but might be at the mercy of a pace that doesn’t figure to be too hot. I’ve been on the Willcox Inn bandwagon almost as long as my savvy colleague Steve Sherack, but he’ll need to run much faster here to contend--not that he isn’t capable of it. His past foes--Animal Kingdom, Soldat, Santiva and Great Mills have all flattered him with subsequent efforts. Sensational Slam is a two-time stakes winner on Poly in Canada, and looked pretty good taking the Capossela at Aqueduct. In his only route attempt, however, he was ninth of 10 in the With Anticipation over the Saratoga lawn. With the added distance, his pedigree could go either way, but the chestnut appears to belong with these based solely on raw ability.

The Factor                                             (c) Coady Photography

   The Arkansas Derby is clearly The Factor’s race to lose and, with Uncle Mo’s flop last week, he might be the last hope to see a truly fast Derby prep performance. He is a legitimate talent (not that Uncle Mo wasn’t), but he is not without question marks. The Factor was not tested on the front end last time in the Rebel--”unopposed” is how the chart caller put it. Four runners are adding blinkers and could show more early foot, and Dance City’s early speed, according to the Moss Pace Figures, is comparable to The Factor’s, so perhaps the chalk will get a sterner front-end test this time. Representatives of red-hot sprinter War Front’s first crop haven’t been fully tested yet at nine furlongs or more. Soldat took the Fountain of Youth with an advantageous trip before finishing off the board in the Florida Derby, and a son of War Front broke his maiden at 1 1/4 miles in France two weeks ago, but a larger sample size must be available before we can conclude how much stamina the War Fronts will generally possess. It’s entirely possible that The Factor will once again run his foes off their feet in this spot but, until he proves otherwise, he will continue to be somewhat vulnerable as the distances get longer and the pace gets more crowded.

Nehro (inside) can't squeeze by Pants on Fire (c) Hodges

   At this point, Nehro is number one on my list for the Kentucky Derby. I already praised his runner-up performance in the Louisiana Derby in the first Sophomore Spotlight entry (here), and see him as having three additional advantages in this spot. Firstly, Nehro is one of only three runners with previous experience at the distance (Elite Alex was fourth behind Nehro in Louisiana, and Dance City broke his maiden at nine furlongs in the slop at Gulfstream). Clearly he relished the added ground last time, as you’d expect with his pedigree. His half-brother Saint Marden (Saint Ballado) was twice a winner (once in the GIII Discovery H.) at this distance and earned a 112 Beyer for a 1 1/16-mile allowance win. Nehro also owns a win over the track--he broke his maiden in very impressive fashion with a quick, sweeping move to win going away. His third advantage comes from the change in tactics he employed in the Louisiana Derby. Nehro was much closer that day, and his ability to keep The Factor in his sights on Saturday should help minimize that one’s tactical advantage. If Nehro can stalk in the second flight while one or two other runners pester the Factor, he should be able to run him down.

   Alternation has been very consistent--taking his last three starts, all routing, but was scratched from the Rebel after flipping in the gate. In addition to an attitude adjustment, he needs a speed figure boost, but his consistency and two wins over the track are positives. He too should love nine furlongs. Alternation is by top sire Distorted Humor out of the MSW and MGSP router Alternate (Seattle Slew), who is a half to MGISW at this distance Peaks and Valleys (Mt. Livermore). Archarcharch has the stamina and consistency to hit the board here and/or in Kentucky, and Sway Away deserves another chance if he’s ridden more aggressively. With P-Val in the irons, that’s guaranteed.

Check back early next week for a wrap-up of the last two major preps for the Kentucky Derby.

Arkansas Here I Come

--Christina Bossinakis

So here it goes–CBoss making her debut on the TDN blog (and I’d like to apologize to everyone in advance for anything I may say!). Another first for me will come next week when I venture to Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs. I’m always supremely pumped when visiting a new racetrack (what can I say, I’m a racing fiend!), however, the quality of racing that will be offered over the course of the next two weekends is enough to get any horse racing fan’s blood pumping. I must admit, I’m very eager to get a first hand look at the spectacularly fast The Factor. When I asked about his 2-year-old crop while in Saratoga for last summer’s yearling sale, the Silver Fox (yes, I am referring to Mr. Baffert) said to me, “Make sure you remember this name--The Factor). Of course, I hadn’t heard about the colt at that time since he had yet to make it to the races, not to mention that it was the witching hour at Saratoga’s post-sale hot spot Siro’s, so it was highly unlikely that I was going to retain a whole lot from that night. In any case, time has proven that Bob was right on the money, and why he consistently ranks at the top of the game. The Factor is scheduled to arrive in Arkansas Apr. 12, and I will be not far behind.


The Factor   (c) Michael J Marten photo

 As always, the T-Train (who has been on fire of late and has the big horse--Uncle Mo--running in this weekend’s Wood at the Big A) is usually well represented in the big ones, and in this year’s Arkansas Derby Pletcher has Brethren, a half-brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. WinStar’s colt won the GIII Sam F. Davis in February, but weakened late to be third most recently in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby Mar. 12. The Tampa dirt is kind of an unusual surface, and I’m inclined to think Oaklawn might be a little more favorable to his running style. An interesting side note–Super Saver also finished third in Tampa’s Derby before finishing a close-up second in Arkansas prior to taking down the big one in Kentucky. Food for thought.. Also represented in a number of the Racing Festival’s marquee events is D. Wayne Lukas, who stands at the top of the training ranks heading into the final stretch of the meet. There are always the critics (you know who you are), but one thing I’ve come to appreciate over the last couple of decades is to never count out the King. One more thing, Miss Match (Arg), winner of the Mar. 12 GI Santa Margarita, is said to be headed to next Friday’s GI Apple Blossom, and the word on the street is that some of her Australian connections might being making it out to watch her run. I must say, I love this game for many reasons, one of which is its international flare. I so enjoy, and appreciate, the convergence of our friends from abroad for the big events. And believe me, for those of you who haven’t had the opportunity to hang with the Aussies, they’re a real trip. They work hard and play harder. Will let you know how it all shakes out. That’s it for now, but be sure to check back for reports during my pilgrimage to Arkansas.