Showing posts with label Saratoga. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saratoga. Show all posts

Monday, August 12, 2013

Guest Post: Saratoga Showcase Lives Up to its Name

--Carly Silver

   As another summer day dawned bright and clear in Connecticut, I prepped myself for
the however-many-annual Father/Daughter Saratoga Road Trip, my favorite trip of the year. This year’s edition would take place on a beautiful Sunday, where the sun would shine on us and (hopefully) my chosen picks in whatever races we attended at the Spa.
   After a scenic ride up the Taconic State Parkway, our first stops were, as always, the Saratoga Olive Oil Company--try their infused balsamics on a delicious
salad--and the Lyrical Ballad Bookstore. There, I picked up a copy of Edward L. Bowen’s Legacies of the Turf, Volume 1: A Century of Great Thoroughbred Breeders.
Bowen had written some of my favorite books on Thoroughbred pedigrees, including Dynasties and Matriarchs, so I was engrossed in this volume.
   Out of the blue, a woman standing nearby mentioned that she used to work at Eclipse Press with Bowen; she introduced herself as Rena Mitchell, wife of Eric
Mitchell, editor-in-chief of The Blood-Horse. She kindly invited me to meet her husband and son; for me, it was a wonderful moment. I had written a column for the magazine’s website 10 years ago--when I was 13--called “Teen Tracks,” in which I analyzed the pedigrees of various contenders for major races. In a way, this was like coming full circle.
   I was particularly interested in seeing Saratoga’s Uniquely New York Showcase, which billed itself as a 150th anniversary showcase of “products made
exclusively in New York State.” As vibrant as Saratoga is, I was afraid that its “showcase” would be nothing more than a few local T-shirts and apples from last
fall. Let’s just say that visiting Aqueduct’s “events” last fall and winter hadn’t done my impressions of tracks’ promotional opportunities any favors.
   As we entered the Saratoga lawn, I was pleased, as always, with the day’s turnout. Something about the Spa--whether it’s the gorgeous location, the racing, or
something else--always attracts more visitors than the average track. Where else can you get a small-town ambiance, world-class horse racing, and high-society folks that pop up for anything from a maiden race to a Grade I stakes?
   The Uniquely New York Showcase itself was rather inconveniently placed, shunted all the way to the left corner of the grandstand area. I must admit, though, that the lawn was so packed that there wasn’t anywhere else track officials could have put yet another tent, complete with thirteen booths and vendors. After finally finding the Showcase area, I was prepared for a small handful of tourists to be rifling through discounted tank tops--and that was it.
   To my surprise, there was a lot more going on than just a few small booths and barely any business. There were dozens of folks milling around, tasting popcorn samples, getting a whiff of scented candles, and taking photos. The food that vendors were selling looked fresh and smelled delicious. The merchandise was, indeed, unique. Who wouldn’t want a piece of scrumptious maple candy, from local syrup harvested right around the corner, or delicacies like chocolate-covered bacon? Well, the latter is up for debate, but the point remains. Whether or not the merchandise was unique to New York in and of itself--let’s face it, candles aren’t an Empire State-only product--is debatable, but kudos to NYRA for living up to its name. Not only is it promoting great racing at Saratoga, but the products there are true New York-breds... and the public took note.
   The chocolate-covered bacon was a particular draw. It’s good that I’m not kosher, I thought as I tasted a sample piece, overcoming my initial revulsion at the concept of the snack. It was surprisingly tasty, combining salty crunchiness with the sweetness of the chocolate and melting in my mouth but, ultimately, I chose against buying any, mentally citing not wanting elevated cholesterol in my twenties if I decided to devour bag after bag.
   I then meandered over to Peanut Principle. Its fun, bright ambiance attracted a lot of
RAD Soaps booth
young fans; my dad even picked up a peanut from those sample legumes strewn across the countertop, cracked it, and ate it. I migrated to RAD Soaps, whose floral hand creams and handcrafted body soaps were on my to-buy list. Reluctantly, I drew myself away from that booth, knowing I already owned a hand lotion too many.
   All in all, I found myself impressed and surprised by the Showcase’s showings. After the track’s visitors found the Showcase tent, they flocked to it in droves. The booths had varied and quality offerings, which did, indeed, showcase local talent. Kudos to Saratoga for pulling off a wonderfully marketable market.  


 

Monday, September 3, 2012

Showdown at the Spa Wrap-up

 

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DiDonato: Monday - Draw Two put in a big late run to be a clear second-best in the first race--I still think he’ll be decent once he gets blinkers and more experience. Felt good that Pletcher was getting bet off the board in Steve’s race, but the money the Schettino runner took may have been more telling, and he dueled Stage Street into submission to protect my lead. Was ready to throw in the towel less than halfway into this thing, but glad Steve kept on firing and I was able to come up with a few winners at the right time for big bets. I think we complemented each other’s styles well. Of my winners, all were maidens and only two had ever run before--both were trying turf for the first time. Steve, meanwhile, did his best work with horses who had more established form. This could have easily gone either way, and I think it’s pretty impressive that we both ended up with a profit--it’s much harder than it looks without seeing odds and scratches and when you’re looking for horses who make for interesting write-ups. Great job, Steve. I look forward to our next showdown.

Sherack: Monday - Even if my top pick Stage Street kept on going after those torrid early fractions of :21.80 and :44.68, how unbearable would it have been to see him get DQ’d for wiping out nearly the entire field at the start? Kicking myself once again for not going with my first alternate, who easily defeated DiDonato’s top pick in the opener, but can only tip my cap at this point to my game rival for a job well done after trailing by nearly $800 through the first two weeks of action. Really tried to drop the hammer on him while I was up big, but I just couldn’t finish him off. I still turned a profit for the meet whichever way you crunch the numbers, and if not anything else, I hope we were at least entertaining, especially through our epic stretch duel during the final week. Showdown at the Inner Track, here we come! Hahaha...


 

Friday, August 31, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 38

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - Noosh’s Tale was just atrocious. . . I should’ve known better. And how about that freaky performance by My Happy Face in the first? That’s at least the third horse I had as a top pick to come back and win.

Saturday - Race 10 - GI Woodward S., 3yo/up, 1 1/8m - Cease (10-1)
   It feels like there's enough tactical speed in here to soften up Mucho Macho Man, who's the most formidable of the favorites. After him, it's wide open. Cease has an excellent record at both the distance and Saratoga and figures to be charging late. He's three-for-three at The Spa, all at this trip, and took Sam Houston's Maxxam Gold Cup H. in his only other dirt run at 1 1/8 miles. The Claiborne/Dilschneider homebred's best career Beyer Speed Figure of 102 came in an emphatic graduation romp here a year ago, and he exits a visually impressive allowance tally July 25. Closing into a below-average early pace, Cease circled the field and powered home in the lane to a somewhat workmanlike, but decisive victory. He only earned a 95 Beyer last time, but since he's run faster before, it's not much of a concern and can only help his price. Play: $25 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $25 Win on #4 Dominus. Alternate 2: Race 9 - $15 Win on #3 Isn't He Perfect. Bankroll: $1,280.90 - Record: 33-4-4-5.

Sherack: Friday - Ughhh. Not again. My alternate pick Conspiracy delivered at 5-1 in the seventh, but the top selection on the day Beer Is Good was anything but good in the finale, chasing the early leader before folding in the stretch. Looks like you still have the lead for now DiDonato, unless you’ve got some more hot Pat Kelly firsters up your sleeves?

Saturday - Race 9 - GI Forego S., 3yo/up, 7f - #6 Emcee (9-2)   I hope there’s still some room in the Godolphin/McLaughlin trophy case for one more Grade I win at the Spa this summer. I’ve been on the Emcee train the entire season, and it’s only a matter of time before he gets his paws on one of these. The lightly raced 4-year-old showed his class while making his third career start, dueling with the fleet Royal Currier throughout and collecting third in game fashion behind inner track specialist Calibrachoa and the classy Caleb’s Posse in the GIII Tom Fool H. over the Big A’s winterized surface Mar. 3. I was banking on the GI Carter H. to be Emcee’s shining moment, but it clearly wasn’t meant to be after he lost all chance badly missing the break en route to a disappointing fourth-place finish. Wisely given a shot to regain his composure in his next try at Belmont May 5, the son of Unbridled’s Song did exactly what he was supposed to do as the 1-2 chalk in a $50k optional claimer, stalking on the outside in third and pouncing in the stretch to post a smart 4 1/2-length victory at this distance, good for a gaudy 107 Beyer. Freshened following that score, he was drawn on the inside and forced to duel early through :21.99 and :44.61 in the six-furlong GI A.G. Vanderbilt Aug. 5, and ran his heart out to be a close third after doing all of the heavy lifting over a tiring and harrowed muddy strip. This race figures to set up much more like his aforementioned score downstate with him being drawn to the outside and the price will be right to make a nice score here. Play: $40 Win. Alternate 1: Race 2 - $25 Win (Turf Only) on #2 Knock Rock. Bankroll: $1,204.30 - Record: 37-8-4-4.

Thursday, August 30, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 37

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Thursday - Wow. . . That’s hilarious. I picked Miami Cat last time when Leparoux absolutely butchered the ride and he finished a much-the-best fourth at 9-1. Sherack didn’t even like the horse today (who would’ve been 15-1 on his own and would’ve interested me)--he liked the other half of the entry--but he ended up benefitting from the rider change and our stupid decision to count both halves of an entry to make things very close going into the last four days of the meet. I’m not happy, Sherack. This means war. Oh ya--and my pick Run for Riches didn’t run for anything. I knew I should've made Archwarrior my top pick.

Friday - Msw, (S), 2yo, 5 1/2fT - Noosh's Tale (6-1)
   Goodtolook figures to be a big favorite trying the turf here, and while the Disco Rico on the grass angle is at play, I think you're supposed to look for regression and try to beat him. He was bet down to 7-5 favoritism when unveiled on the main track Aug. 22, but faded to fourth after setting a below-average pace (seven points below par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale). Trainer Gary Contessa must have had Goodtolook cranked up first out considering the money he took, and the conditioner's stats in similar spots to this leave a lot to be desired. According to DRF Formulator, Contessa's 0-for-15 over the past five seasons with maiden second timers trying turf in sprints. The trainer stats on Noosh's Tale aren't any better, but he's got a big-time pedigree for this. His dam Upper Noosh (Red Ransom) took the GIII Miss Grillo S. by five lengths as a juvenile over the Belmont sod, and she's produced five surface winners from six foals to race. Noosh's Tale's siblings include familiar MGSP turf sprinter Yield Bogey and Upper East Sider, a very impressive first-turf graduate at 12-1 in 2010. Trainer Pat Kelly did run third at 18-1 with another 2-year-old firster over this course and distance on the 17th, so there's reason to believe Noosh's Tale can be well-enough prepared to let her pedigree shine. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 4 - $15 Win on #4 Ear D' Rhythm (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 4 - $15 Win on #2 Dancinginyourdreams. Bankroll: $1,300.90 - Record: 32-4-4-5.

Sherack: Thursday - Not quite the way I drew it up, but I'll certainly take it. The other part of the entry Miami Cat saved me big time with a powerful late surge to deliver in the Equalize. Extra sweet throwing a little salt in the wound cashing on DiDonato's trip horse from last time and getting right back within striking distance here. Feeling pretty good driving home from the Spa after this hit and run job.

Friday - Race 9 - Clm 35000B, 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - #1 Beer Is Good (12-1)
   Beer Is Good has a lot more going for himself besides having a great name. The Mid-Atlantic shipper proved he belonged in these parts with a strong second to Precious Metal (returned off the Jacobson claim to run a career-best 86 Beyer behind the in-form Mineswept at the Spa Aug. 20) after dueling throughout and leading in deep stretch in a $20k beaten tagger for conditioner Robert Bailes July 26. Claimed by Team Clear Star Stable and trainer Rick Schosberg out of that effort, the son of Bob and John returned on relatively short notice hiked up to this level Aug. 10, and just never showed up, flashing early speed and tiring to finish a well-beaten ninth at 5-1, but he does have some excuses to consider. The skies opened up in upstate New York while they were in the paddock for the opener that day, and the turf course turned into a complete swamp, clearly not to Beer Is Good’s liking after posting three straight big efforts on firm ground for his former connections. He’s now had the proper time to adjust to Schosberg’s program, has breezed twice since (he didn’t even get a work in prior to his last start), has smart speed, is drawn on the rail, and Johnny V taking over the reins from Lezcano is a major plus as well. This isn’t the easiest spot ever, but I think he can be dangerous at a nice number if able to kick clear on the turn for home if the course stays as firm as it’s been the past few weeks. Play: $30 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 7 - $25 Win on #2 Conspiracy. Alternate 2: Race 8 - $25 Win on #2 Alaura Michele. Bankroll: $1,234.30 - Record: 36-8-4-4.

Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 36

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Wednesday - Nine O Wonderful got a weak ride, failing to go through a wide-open seam at the top of the lane. When finally guided clear after being stymied on the inside, he flew home fastest of all (:22.96) to finish a close fifth. Probably would’ve been right there with better handing.

Thursday - Race 4 - Msw, f, 3yo/up, 7f - #6 Run for Riches (15-1)
   Steve and I were both going to pick Buleria, who had an awful trip last time and figures to get a ton of pace, in the fifth, but for the good of the contest, we agreed to stay away from her. There were some real tense cat-and-mouse moments there and I was trying to calculate the best amount to bet if we were both going to take her... I’m glad it didn’t come to that. Instead I’ll go with Run for Riches, who feels like she has to be better than she showed on debut. Bet a bit at 6-1 when unveiled going a mile at Aqueduct in November, the grey showed early interest before stopping badly. She’s worked very well in preparation for this return--apparently in company with well-bred expensive unraced 2-year-old Cue the Moon, who may be one to watch for depending on how Run for Riches does. More interesting is trainer James Bond’s past success when making this sort of move. He’s scored twice since 2009 with maiden second-timers turning back off the bench at Saratoga--both were 8-1 and had similarly uninspiring running lines first out. Play: $20 Win. Alternate 1: Race 9 - $20 Win on #7 Twilight Eclipse (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 3 - $2 Win on #3 Archwarrior. Bankroll: $1,320.90 - Record: 31-4-4-5.

Sherack: Wednesday - Da Mi Basia Mille had every chance in the P.G. Johnson, but just didn’t kick on in the stretch like she did in her debut to finish a disappointing fourth at 5-1... Of course my alternate pick Corinzia came charging in the nightcap to light up the tote board at $25.00... Hoping a day trip to the Spa turns my luck around today.

Thursday - Race 9 - Equalize S., 3yo, 1mT - #1 Csaba (3-1)
   Was convinced that I found a horse that could get me back in the lead in this thing with Buleria in the fifth, so you could only imagine my frustration when DiDonato confirmed via email Wednesday morning that he was on the Empire Maker filly as well. At least I can still bet plenty of real currency on her though. I couldn’t have been more impressed by Sonofasamurai’s maiden breaker Aug. 18 (you just don’t see 2-year-olds split horses the way he did in the stretch and continue to punch on home) and couldn’t wait to bet him back, but shouldn’t the man aboard that day, David Cohen, be even more impressed than the guy that was watching on a television screen 200+ miles away in Red Bank, NJ? Cohen is instead listed to ride stablemate He’s So Fine, and after still kicking myself for landing on the wrong McPeek horse in the Travers, I’m going to look elsewhere for my main play today. That leaves me with Csaba. Loved him on either surface for the GII Hall of Fame S. (click here for my Aug. 10 analysis), but had to swallow a much shorter price when the rains arrived. He still ran great that day, coming up only a nose short while delivering an ultra-game performance. Shorter distance will help, gets a favorable rider change to Castro and should be out there winging from his inside draw. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s coupled with Brian’s trip horse from Aug. 19 Miami Cat, either. Willing to take a shorter price than usual to help bridge the gap with DiDonato. Likely favorite Finale certainly looks vulnerable in this spot off the bench. Play: $50 Win (POE). Alternate 1: Race 10 - $25 Win (Turf Only) on #2B Sonofasamurai. Bankroll: $1,056.80 - Record: 35-7-4-4.

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 34

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - Wish I could gloat about Owen Rico romping and paying $14.60, but since I got greedy and played a big daily double with Royal Delta instead of a win, I’ll go bash my head against the wall instead...

Monday - Race 10 - Msw, 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - #1 Chief Gaga (12-1)
   Chief Gaga tries the turf here for low-profile owner/trainer Tamzen Johnson, and figures to get lost on the board despite having run Beyer Speed Figures that compare favorably with this group. Johnson claimed the bay for $20,000 from Steve Asmussen out of a runner-up effort here July 25, and brought him back to run a decent-enough sixth against maiden special weight company Aug. 4. Chief Gaga earned a career-best 69 Beyer for that effort--the co-best fig in the race--so it’s not as if he regressed off the trainer change. He now tries the surface he’s best-bred for on the bottom and shows a three-furlong blow-out over the Oklahoma sod Aug. 22. The son of Indian Charlie is a half-brother to Well Monied (Maria’s Mon), GSW and MGISP on the lawn; and Jimmy Simms (Lost Soldier), MSW and GSP over turf. Play: $24 Win (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 7 - $20 Win on #4 Joanne’s Halo (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 10 - $10 Win on #10 Belvoir (turf only). Bankroll: $1374.90 - Record: 29-4-4-5.
      
Note: I had a bankroll miscalculation yesterday... not used to actually tallying winning pay-offs lately. It’s right now.

Sherack: Sunday - Man, I liked this contest a lot better when DiDonato’s top picks were getting scratched every day... Got the price that I was looking for on Lord of Love, but he could do no better than a non-threatening sixth at 9-1.

Monday - Race 7 - Msw, 2yo, f, 5 1/2fT - #3 Judy G (8-1)
   First Samurai has been on a nice roll of late with his juvenile grass runners, including recent maiden winners Sonofasamurai ($15.40) at Saratoga Aug. 18 and Rutherford Rd ($42.20) at Woodbine Aug. 24. Banking on his daughter Judy G, the first foal out of the grassy Grade III-placed Miracle Moment (Chester House), to keep the ball rolling for the Claiborne stallion. In addition to her pedigree, the bay certainly looks well-meant for the green stuff, boasting a handful of sharp moves on the infield, most recently covering five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 around the dogs over the Oklahoma turf Aug. 24. It’s been a quiet Saratoga meeting for the well-respected Barclay Tagg barn, but that could change in a hurry if this filly shows up ready to play. Play: $30 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 2 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #6 Arch Support.

Saturday, August 25, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 33

click for details
We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - Well, that was nice. Summer of Fun, who I’ve been waiting to cash on since OBSMAR, got the job done to the tune of $24.80. Looks like we’ve got a contest on our hands again...

Sunday - Race 11 - Msw, (S), 3yo/up, 5 1/2fT - #12 Owen Rico (6-1)
   I’m not sure what the ROI is, but a Disco Rico trying turf for the first time is a very profitable angle. All you have to do is look at the recently run pair of New York-bred turf stakes for 3-year-olds here to see that he throws runners who love the lawn. Owen Rico makes the switch to the infield and has tons of other things going for him. Dismissed at 20-1 for his seven-panel unveiling here Aug. 9, the Edition Farm homebred was part of an above-average pace (five points above par early on the Moss Pace Figure scale) before settling for fourth in a race that came apart in the end. Trainer Tom Bush has had very little success with firsters in recent years, but he’s four-for-14 with a $2.51 ROI over the past five seasons with second-time-starting maidens trying the turf (courtesy DRF Formulator). The cut back in distance should help and, perhaps most interestingly, he’s a new gelding. Play: $49 Win. Alternate 1: Race 5 - $20 Win on #9 Lawyer Jim (turf only). Bankroll: $1099.20 - Record: 28-3-4-5. 

Sherack: Saturday - Looks like I’m going to have to actually start handicapping again if I want to pull off a wire-to-wire job here. Well done, DiDonato. Should be an exciting stretch run as we approach the final week. As for my pick Saturday, Atigun ran good in the Travers, but not good enough, finishing a close fourth at 8-1.

Sunday - Race 5 - Msw, (S), 3yo/up, 1 1/16mT - #11 Lord of Love (5-1)
   Lord of Love has looked like a new horse in two attempts at three since returning from a December layoff in mid-July. He’s posted consecutive career-best performances while being stuck on the inside in the stretch, including a strong rallying third, to come within a half-length of the winner at 10-1 last time. Great to see the Hertler barn enjoying a banner Saratoga meeting, getting a pair of wins out of Jitney and also saddling another maiden winner earlier this week. There’s a good chance, or at least I’m hoping, that Lord of Love goes off nearly double his morning-line odds in this one. Dare to dream. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 3 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #3 White Sangria. Alternate 2: Race 11 - $8 Win (Turf Only) on #5 Saguaro Blossom. Bankroll: $1,146.80 - Record: 32-7-4-4.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 31


We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Thursday - Kamchatka was bet down to an underlaid 7-2 and got bounced around a bit in the lane before settling for fourth. To top it all off, Sherack found another winner in Central Banker. My only hope at this point may be if Bernanke announces QE3 for my bankroll.

Friday - Race 9 - GI Ballerina S. - #2 All Due Respect (20-1)
   Ready for the craziest DRF Formulator stat you've ever seen? Over the last five years, trainer Todd Pletcher is two-for-31 with a $0.19 ROI with new acquisitions in graded stakes. That's enough for me to play against heavy favorite Turbulent Descent, who I've always thought was a bit dressed up (going to assume It's Tricky will scratch as expected). Unlike the GII Honorable Miss H. that featured one of the hottest paces you'll see here three weeks ago, there's very little speed in the Ballerina. Turnback All Due Respect figures to be on the lead, and while her 2012 form isn't really up to par with these, she has races further back that fit well. Conditioner Rick Dutrow scores at a 31% clip with a $2.53 ROI turning back and going turf to dirt, and All Due Respect could add to those solid numbers if she gets clear here. Play: $30 Win. Alternate 1: Race 2 - $15 Win on #8 Pure Treasure. Bankroll: $720 - Record: 27-2-4-4.

Sherack: Thursday - Nice tally by Central Banker ($7.80) to get us back in the win column and open up some more daylight on DiDonato as we hit the homestretch. My Asmussen firster came running late at 12-1 in that one too, coming within a neck of completing the exacta. Time to start rolling again.

Friday - Race 7 - Clm 20000N2L, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/16mT - #3 Frivolous Alex (6-1)
   Frivolous Alex looks like the right one here at a very generous morning-line quote of 6-1. She’ll certainly appreciate this drop to $20k non-winners of two lifetime after graduating in wire-to-wire fashion in a $40k tagger at Monmouth July 15 and finishing a respectable fifth after leading in the stretch in a $35k beaten claiming event over this course Aug. 2. The bay has some decent early foot, gets a great speed rider in Joel Rosario, and hails from the very dangerous George Weaver barn, which has been rolling throughout the entire meeting. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 3 - $14 Win on #3 Perfect Trippi. Bankroll: $1,196.80 - Record: 30-7-4-4.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 28

click for details
We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - And Steve thought Atigun’s ride in the Jim Dandy was bad... Wow. That was some serious ineptitude aboard Miami Cat at 9-1. Let’s go to the videotape... Off a bit awkwardly, the Florida invader was strangled back off a pace that never really developed (maybe because he was supposed to be involved in it?). He tried to pull himself closer on the turn, but was instead strangled back and buried in between horses. Dropped all the way out of it to last at the head of the lane, Miami Cat flew home on the far outside to be beaten a length and a neck in fourth.  

Monday - Race 1 - Msw, 3yo/up, 1 1/8m - #3 After the Bell (8-1)
   The top four favorites (two are coupled) in this six-betting-interest affair have a combined record of 39-0-12-9. Yuck. After the Bell, however, still has plenty of upside. The Darley homebred was devoid of speed when unveiled going seven panels at Belmont May 19, dropping far out of it after a slow break before showing some late interest to cut his losing margin to 12 1/2 lengths while checking in seventh. It seemed visually like more than just a clunk-up--he was doing some actual running--and three horses from that heat, including two who finished behind him, returned to break their maidens next out. More distance certainly helps After the Bell, as his pedigree is exceptional for 1 1/8 miles. By excellent stamina influence Empire Maker, the dark bay is out of GI Ashland S. winner and GI Kentucky Oaks runner-up Rings a Chime (Metfield), making him a full-brother to MGISW router Country Star. If that's not a nine-furlong pedigree, I don't know what is. I'm still a bit concerned that After the Bell may find himself too far out of it, as the works since his debut are incredibly slow, but that's how all Tom Albertrani horses work, and I'd think that After the Bell would be adding blinkers here if his lack of speed was that much of an issue. Play: $25 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $40 Win on #8 Geisha Gal (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 2 - $10 Win on #7 Good Law. Bankroll: $800 - Record: 24-2-4-4.    

Sherack: Sunday - Better Lucky sat the trip in fourth and had every chance in the stretch, but was simply not good enough when the real running began in the Lake Placid.

Monday - Race 8 - Msw, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 1/8mT - #3 Opalite (15-1)
   Opalite caught my attention with a strong third at 12-1 going 1 3/16 miles last out at the Spa July 29, and can make some noise at a big price in this one. Hard held in eighth that day through a half mile in :48.56 and six furlongs in 1:13.90, Opalite hit the gas with a good four-wide move on the turn for home and kept on coming in the stretch to finish within 3 1/4 lengths of the impressive winner Riolama. The bay has continued to improve since receiving a freshening in the spring and switching to turf in her last two, and should save all the ground with an inside draw here. Deep closer should have more than enough pace to run at to make an impact and cutting back to 1 1/8 miles should be right in her wheelhouse. Play: $14 Win (Turf Only). Bankroll: $1,177.80 - Record: 27-6-4-3.

Friday, August 17, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 26

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - Leaping Lady chased the pace before fading badly in the ninth. One race earlier, alternate Crafty Push scored at 6-1. For once, I was rooting for a late off-the-turf announcement.
 
Saturday - Race 2 - Msw, 2yo, 1 1/16mT - #5 Elmutahid (8-1)
   Shadwell homebred Elmutahid was unveiled by trainer Kiaran McLaughlin going seven panels over the Belmont sod July 15, but was sandwiched at the start and dropped back. He got a bit headstrong down the backstretch and into the turn, and faded to seventh after pulling himself into contention. The dark bay should show more with a better trip today, and McLaughlin excels with maiden second-time starters stretching out on the turf. According to DRF Formulator, over the past five years, he boasts an 8-for-19 record (42%) with a $3.82 ROI in the relevant category. One of the runners who accounts for McLaughlin’s lofty numbers is Elmutahid’s dam Alwajeeha (Dixieland Band). Alwajeeha was fifth first out as a juvenile going six panels on the Belmont lawn in 2007, but broke through when stretched to a mile at Aqueduct next out. She’d go on to annex the GI QE II Challenge Cup S. at Keeneland the following year. Play: $25 Win (turf only). Alternate 1: Race 4 - $15 Win on #3 Bad Hombre. Alternate 2: Race 2 - $15 Win on #13 Never the End. Bankroll: $845 - Record: 22-2-3-4.     

Sherack: Friday - Chat Me Up was hammered down to 2-1 after a pair of gate scratches, but ran like she was scratched too, finishing last of five.

Saturday - Race 10 - GI Alabama S., 3yo, f, 1 1/4m - #1 Sea Island (12-1)
   Grace Hall and Questing will obviously be extremely tough to beat in this spot and are very deserving favorites, but I’m willing to take a chance at an enticing price with Sea Island, who may take a big leap forward with the added distance here. The Phipps homebred couldn’t have been more impressive when stretched to 1 1/8m at the Spa last time, defeating classy older fillies and mares, including St. John’s River and Acting Happy in a $50k optional claimer, clocking her final eighth in a sharp :12.67. Sea Island has since returned to the worktab with a best-of-36 four-furlong bullet in :48 1/5 over the Oklahoma training track Aug. 13, clearly a good sign for a barn that rarely works them fast. Sea Island’s dam Resort, a close sixth in this race in 2000, could run all day, finishing second in the CCA Oaks held at 1 1/2m that term. Stranger things have happened at the Graveyard of Favorites. Play: $20 Win. Alternate 1: Race 8 - $20 Win on #11 Ivanho. Bankroll: $1,227.80 - Record: 25-6-4-3.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 22

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - In the sixth, Distortion (8.9-1) was better but still very green, and faded to fifth. At least I picked up another $10 on Sherack.   

Monday - Race 9 - Coronation Cup S. - #5 Quick Flip (15-1)
   There isn't much speed in this event compared to most turf sprint stakes, and Quick Flip should find herself on or near the lead as she tries the lawn for the first time. Purchased privately after being entered and scratched out of a $50,000 starter optional claimer Aug. 2 that I'm not sure how she was eligible for, last December's Sandpiper S. winner looks to regain the form she had at two now for Eddie Kenneally--she was previously with Terri Pompay. Kenneally boasts excellent numbers in the relevant categories, including an outrageous 11-for-25 ($6.30 ROI) record with non-debuting first time turfers sprinting over the past five years (courtesy DRF Formulator). Quick Flip is by good turf sprint sire Speightstown and is a half to MSW turf sprinter Stormin' Lyon. Play: $26 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 6 - $21 Win on #8 Double Mint. Bankroll: $931 - Record: 18-2-2-3.

Sherack: Sunday - Canadian invader Dan the Tin Man chased a very hot early pace and never factored in the Saratoga Special.

Today - Race 5 - Clm 25000B, 3yo/up, 1 1/16mT - #4 Knock Rock (15-1)
   How great would it be to stick it to DiDonato twice with his old friend Knock Rock? The Scott Schwartz colorbearer clearly loves the lawn at the Spa, and his overdue wire-to-wire July 25 win came back with a very legit 74 Beyer. Needed 15 tries to break his maiden, but wouldn’t be shocked at all if he put them back-to-back at a big price. Play: $14 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 1 - $14 Win on #4 Rockstar Life. Bankroll: $1,310.80 - Record: 21-6-4-1.

Saturday, August 11, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 21

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - All scratched again yesterday, but I guess I was asking for it by selecting turfers... Hoping I can let Sherack punch himself out a little bit before I make my big move.

Today - Race 6 - Msw, f, 2yo, 6f - #3 Distortion (8-1)
   Distortion had about as nightmarish a debut (video) as a horse can have, but might actually have some talent if she can work out the mental part. Bet to 6-1 when unveiled in Kauai Katie's opening day romp, the $300,000 KEESEP yearling was off extremely slow and lagged at the back of the pack early. She bolted at the head of the lane, completely going out of the video picture and probably spotting the rest of the field what? 20 lengths? It's hard to really quantify that sort of trouble but, somehow, she got going again and even passed one rival to be beaten only 25 3/4 lengths by the winner. The daughter of Misty Rosette (Stormin Fever), two-for-two with a stakes win as a juvenile before adding a Grade III win and GI Test S. placing at three, now gets blinkers, which she desperately needs. Zito is 4-for-12 with a $6.76 ROI over the past year with maidens adding blinkers for the first time (stat courtesy DRF Formulator) and he could pad those stats if Distortion has learned form her debut. Play: $20 Win. Alternate 1: Race 7 - $20 Win on #3 Atlantic Dream (turf only). Alternate 2: Race 11 - $20 Win on #5 Dan the Tin Man. Bankroll: $951 - Record: 17-2-2-3.

Sherack: Saturday - Corporate Jungle was a clear-cut second-best to the very impressive Wise Dan in the Fourstardave...Convinced that a former president’s eyes will start blinking from finally seeing daylight once DiDonato takes some money out of his wallet to make a wager.

Today - Race 11 - GII Saratoga Special S., 2yo, 6 1/2f - #5 Dan the Tin Man (8-1)
   Canadian invader Dan the Tin Man should be taken very seriously here. Thought highly enough of to debut in the Victoria S. June 16, the dark bay showed some early interest before tiring down the lane to finish a well-beaten fourth. Drawn on the rail for the second straight time while adding blinkers in a 5 1/2-furlong Woodbine maiden special weight July 8, Dan the Tin Man raced in tight quarters early, took over when ready, and dropped the hammer in the stretch to score by five impressive lengths, good for a very respectable 77 Beyer. Trainer Ricky Griffith is quickly becoming one of the best young trainers in the game with his 2-year-olds, and Dan the Tin Man can be any kind. If his five-furlong move in :59 4/5 over the Woodbine training track in late July is any indication, the Debmar Stables colorbearer should handle dirt just fine. Javier signed on to ride is certainly an added plus. Play: $30 Win. Alternate 1: Race 4 - $14 Win on #9 Slamm’n Lou. Alternate 2: Race 2 - $14 Win (Turf Only) on #2 Belongs to Dixie. Bankroll: $1,340.80 - Record: 20-6-4-1

Friday, August 10, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 20

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - Didn’t have a bet yesterday as two of my runners scratched, and the other, Insolvent in the fifth, was forced off the turf. Really regretted giving her the "turf only" distinction, and felt even worse when she scored at a very generous 7-2 considering there was no other speed in the race. Really hoping the weather clears up for tomorrow.


 DiDonato: Friday -Today - Race 2 - Msw, 1 1/16mT, 2yo - #5 Draw Two (3-1)
    Let me preface this by saying that it pains me greatly to pick such a chalky horse. I wrote this up before the morning line came out and was expecting a better price after looking at other handicappers’ picks for this race. Hopefully he drifts or at least stays close to the morning line, because I think 7-5 or so is probably fair. Draw Two had a very tough trip on debut (video) going seven furlongs over the Belmont sod July 15, but managed to finish a much-the-best third behind Craving Carats, who returned to don cap and gown here last week. Off very slowly from his outside post, the big grey was kept out wide in no-man's land around the turn, covering a ton of extra ground while trying to chip away at his disadvantage. Still clearly a bit green in the lane, Draw Two covered his final furlong in :11.97 (vs. the top two finishers' :12.39) to get up for third. Trainer Michelle Nihei's stats with second timers aren't great, but she does well overall and usually stays under the radar. Draw Two has some 2-year-old quality on his dam's side (he hails from the family of 1987 champion juvenile filly Epitome and last year's GIII Arlington-Washington Futurity winner Shared Property) and should prove clearly best here with any kind of trip unless there's a really good firster waiting in the wings. Play: $47 Win ($27 win in off the turf). Alternate 1: Race 7 - $15 Win on #9 Davins Ticket (Turf Only). Bankroll: $951 - Record: 17-2-2-3.


Sherack: Friday - Thought Csaba was a complete lock once the rains forced the Hall of Fame to the main track--and apparently so did the Spa faithful hammering him down to 6-5--but he came up just a nose short after putting on quite a good show in the stretch.

Today - Race 11 - GII Fourstardave H., 3yo/up, 1mT - #7 Corporate Jungle (6-1)
Corporate Jungle put together a three-race winning streak earlier this term, including a solid tally with a career-high 99 Beyer in Gulfstream’s GIII Appleton S. in March. Given plenty of time to recover from that effort, the Gary & Mary West colorbearer was along in time to deliver as the chalk in Monmouth’s Elkwood S. May 19, and punched his ticket to California for the GI Shoemaker Mile. The dark bay made a strong middle-move while racing wide that day, but was outkicked in the stretch, reporting home a respectable fifth, beaten three lengths, to the hard-knocking Jeranimo. The 4-year-old appears to have bounced back from that effort in top form, posting a four-furlong bullet in :48 4/5 over the Oklahoma training track July 22, and reunites with Javier Castellano, who was last aboard in the Appleton. Corporate Jungle also owns a good-looking maiden win over this course over subsequent GI Hollywood Derby runner-up Imagining. Chad Brown has been firing on all cylinders since the meet kicked off, and this guy should present some nice value following an off-the-board finish. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 9 - $20 Win on #2 Shankopotamus.
Bankroll: $1,365.80 - Record: 19-6-3-1

Thursday, August 9, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 19

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Thursday - Nubin Ridge took the type of action in the second that could only mean he was very live, going off at 4.3-1 when he was at least double that on paper. He got the job done and, all of a sudden, I think Sherack’s starting to hear the hoofsteps. He still has a big lead and will probably shut the door on me again soon, but at least there’s a glimmer of hope.

Today - Race 9 - GII Hall of Fame S. - Spring to the Sky (12-1)
    I've been a big fan of Spring to the Sky since his debut romp sprinting in the slop at Belmont last September, and think he might be poised for a breakout performance this time if he can take advantage of his greatest asset--hit serious early speed. He put up a half in :46.24 while pestered by a headstrong rival when trying the lawn for the first time in Belmont's one-mile GIII Hill Prince S. June 16 and hung in until late to be fifth, beaten 2 1/2 lengths by top turf sophomore Summer Front. Quite surprisingly, though, the grandson of champion turf mare Soaring Softly didn't make the lead in the Duluth S. here July 22, as a rival to his inside appeared a bit keen and forced Spring to the Sky to track him. The posted splits were very slow--:24.54, :49.26 and 1:12.49--but something doesn't add up. They appeared to be going much faster visually, and the resulting come-home times are too quick to be believed. Spring to the Sky still managed third, but it's a better third than it looks on paper. It's not as if there isn't some speed signed on in here, but nothing quick enough to run with Spring to the Sky--especially considering that he enters off a :59 flat work on the Oklahoma course with the dogs up (more than 1.20 seconds quicker than the next work). He should be able to get some early separation this time and, after essentially pairing Beyers in his last three races, should move forward against a group that seems maybe a cut below what he's faced in his last two. Play: $30 Win. Alternate 1: Race 5 - $25 Win on #7 Insolvent (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 7 - $10 Win on #9 Goodtolook. Bankroll: $951 - Record: 17-2-2-3.

Sherack: Thursday - Uh oh. DiDonato starting to make a run as we approach the half-mile marker after striking with another first-time starter. Looks like there will be a Showdown after all. Time to get refocused. Thought I was live when my Mott firster Endorphins Fly received plenty of action at 5-1 (he was 15-1 on the morning line), but he could do no better than a mediocre fourth. Certainly one to watch going forward with that high-powered pedigree.

Today - Race 9 - GII Hall of Fame S., 3yo, 1 1/16mT - #4 Csaba (4-1)
   Csaba hasn’t raced on grass since posting a couple of solid efforts behind smart company at the Gulfstream meeting, but he’s really stepped up his game on the Calder dirt since. A very respectable third behind Howe Great and Dullahan in the GIII Palm Beach S. in March, the turf-meant son of Kitten’s Joy out of a War Chant mare fell victim to the Miami rain in three subsequent attempts, including a sharp 5 3/4-length off-the-turf allowance win with a 97 Beyer May 12. DQ’d from second and placed third in a roughly run Mambo Meister S. on quick rest May 26, he resurfaced without blinkers for the first time with a career-high 99 Beyer while wiring four rivals by an eye-catching 8 1/4 lengths in the El Kaiser S. July 21. Love the four-furlong grass move around the dogs in :48 at Calder July 30, and have nothing but respect for the Phil Gleaves barn, which does extremely well with a limited amount of runners. There’s plenty of other speed entered here, but he’s proven tactical enough to be well-placed early. If this rapidly improving sophomore’s recent dirt form translates to turf, the rest of this group will be running for second. Play: $40 Win.
Bankroll: $1405.80 - Record: 18-6-2-1.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 16

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Sunday - That’s top-pick "scratch" number six, but who’s counting? Summer of Fun was a turf only selection in the sixth, but she stayed in and ran a race that makes me excited for when she actually gets to go long on turf. Hard-ridden early, the longshot never looked like she handled the wet track, but still looked in with a chance until rider Eddie Castro wrapped up on her late and she dropped back. She’ll look like a new horse when she’s allowed to relax and make a late run on a surface that suits her better. Second alternate One Sock Down was pestered throughout on a rail that seemed like the last place you wanted to be.

Today - Race 2 - OC 35000, 3yo/up, 1 3/8mT - #9 Bluegrass Summer (15-1)
   I know he’s a bit of an abstract pick, but I’ve always thought Bluegrass Summer would excel going longer, and now the half-brother to Laragh and Summer Front gets more distance in a race you can actually bet on. He was completely devoid of speed in his 1 1/16-mile unveiling here last September, but made up sneaky ground late, covering his final 5/16ths in a field’s-best :29.09 to be eighth. He was never really ridden when going a mile at Gulfstream Jan. 29, and finished a relatively close-up last of nine. Bluegrass Summer showed a little bit more speed early when stretched an extra panel back in Florida Feb. 18, but sort of dropped back out of it down the backstretch and was never fully put into the race in the lane to be sixth. The grey did break through next out May 12 at Percy Warner in Nashville in a 12-furlong flat race for amateur jockeys, however, and those weren’t maidens he was beating. Runner-up Memorial Maniac is a jumper now (he finished third in the first race last Thursday), but he took the GIII Stars and Stripes S. at Arlington in 2010 and ran credibly enough in other tough spots that year and last year. It’s entirely possible that he’s not in the same sort of form he was in when he was racing on the flats, but to dismiss that race out of hand would be a mistake. Trainer Jonathan Sheppard shows some confidence to run in this spot, and Bluegrass Summer is definitely much better than he looks on paper (he looks admittedly terrible on paper)--he’s the type of horse who will never get play from the general public. Play: $15 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 5 - $35 Win on 5 Over The Counter. Alternate 2: Race 8 - $20 Win on #5 Pinch Pie (Turf Only). Bankroll: $705 - Record: 14-0-2-3.

Sherack: Sunday - Was counting my money when Hunter Forward kicked for home in command following six furlongs in 1:13.61 in the opener at 9-2, but she just couldn’t hold on, running out of gas in deep stretch to finish a close third after losing a brutal photo for the place slot... Also took a tough beat with my alternate play Justin Phillip in the Vanderbilt.


Today - Race 3 - Clm 20000, 3yo/up, 1 1/16mT - #3 Slamm’n Lou (12-1) After two straight days of tearing up $50-win tickets, I’m scaling back a bit and rolling the dice on a longshot today. The very lightly campaigned Slamm’n Lou lines up for only the 21st time in his career at the age of seven. The bay has done his best running over courses with some give to them (he cleared his N2L condition over a yielding Belmont turf last June with a solid 77 Beyer), and he should certainly get a course to his liking if they leave this one on the lawn. Placed on the shelf following a seventh-place finish in September, Slamm’n Lou returned from the sidelines with a solid fourth in a N3L after a pretty brutal trip. Well off the pace through slow fractions of :25.20 and :49.39, he had to slam on the brakes while making a nice move in the stretch and still re-rallied late to finish within a length of the winner. He failed to repeat that effort in an open $25k tagger over a firm going June 6, and was given another freshening to regroup. He has plenty of workouts since, including a nice four-furlong move in :48 4/5 July 10, and with two horses on the morning-line at 5-1 and 6-1 exiting jump races, I get the feeling that this one is open for the taking. Trainer Billy Badgett, a three-time winner at this meet last year, is yet to visit the Saratoga winner’s circle in 2012, but has already been represented by a 38-1 second-place finisher July 26. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 2 - $14 Win on #5 Hangover Kid. Bankroll: $1,426 - Record: 15-5-1-1

Saturday, August 4, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 15

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Saturday - I may still have a 0% win rate, but I’m up to almost 36% with top pick scratches. Now that’s impressive! Alternate play Fredericksburg threw his head up right at the start of the fifth, and was pretty much out of it at that point from his outside draw. He did put in a very nice late run to be fourth while racing greenly, and I think he would’ve had a major say in the outcome with any racing luck.

Today - Race 6 - Msw, 2yo, f, 1 1/16mT - #10 Summer of Fun
   Summer of Fun made it onto my mythical short list at OBS March after showing a nice turn of foot and a definite slant towards going long while breezing an eighth in :10 1/5. She sold for $95,000--the second-highest price paid for a 2-year-old by the very underrated Include over the past three years. Out of an unraced daughter of solid turf runner Royal Anthem (Theatrical {Ire}), sire of MGISW Presious Passion, Summer of Fun's female family is all distance and mostly turf. Her second dam was MSP in France and produced U.S. Grade I winner and French Group 1-placed Louis Cyphre (Ire) as well as French Group 2 winner and MG1SP Psychobabble (Ire). While George Weaver's numbers with 2-year-olds debuting in turf routes aren't spectacular, he does do exceptionally well at Saratoga in general, and his two recent wins in the relevant category came here at 8-1 and 6-1. He also ran a close second with another turf debutante at the Spa in 2010 at 40-1, and one of those two winners came last year for this same ownership group--Bona Venture Stables. Summer of Fun can't really get bet too strongly off the paper, so I'm looking for a nice price on an intriguing under-the-radar runner. Play: $25 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1:
Race 6 - $20 Win on #2 Win for Kitten (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 9 - $10 Win on #2 One Sock Down. Bankroll: $715 - Record: 13-0-2-3.

Sherack: Saturday - Enjoyed another classic 11 a.m. text message from DiDonato after the scratches went up on NYRA’s website Saturday, but that was all my fun for the day following a no-excuse fourth from Hymn Book in the Whitney.

Today - Race 1 - OC 35k/N1X, 3yo/up, f/m, 1 3/16mT - #10 Hunter Forward (5-1)
   Bonomo private purchase moves to the live Schettino barn following a sharp victory versus $35k taggers going 1 1/16 miles for Christophe Clement over the Belmont lawn July 15. Aussie-bred can run all day, boasting a win going 1 5/16 miles at Haydock last August, and a second-place finish at 1 1/4 miles at Nottingham in October. Was hard-held to rate in third through pedestrian-like fractions last time, and appears to be controlling speed here if Castro wants it. Schettino has gotten off to a solid beginning at the Spa, getting a win on opening day and adding three second-place finishes from seven starters. Play: $50 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 10 - $30 Win on #3 Justin Phillip. Bankroll: $1,476 - Record: 14-5-1-0.

Friday, August 3, 2012

Showdown at the Spa: Day 14

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We have given our two TDN crack handicappers, Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack, a mythical $1000 bankroll and told them they can bet no more than 5% of that on any given day at Saratoga on a straight win bet. The winner, at the end of the meet, gets $100 in a TVG betting account, along with bragging rights until next July.

DiDonato: Friday - Another winner for Sherack, and another too little, too late run for me. . . At least I’m still in contention for second.

Today - Race 4 - Alw, (S), 3yo/up, 1mT - #10 Diso On (12-1)
   I simply don't see much separation between the runners in this field, and think Disco On's actual chances of winning will be significantly better than his odds will reflect--I'm expecting much higher than his 12-1 morning-line quote. He's extremely dirtied up on paper thanks to rough trips, and returns to the one-mile distance he hasn't tried since breaking his maiden in his first turf try at 52-1 at Aqueduct last November. Disco On finished out his 2-year-old term with two somewhat surprisingly competitive efforts on the dirt in New York-bred stakes company, but ultimately made his way back to what figures to be his preferred surface. He went seven panels at Belmont June 3rd in the NYSS Spectacular Bid S. and had made a ridiculous wide, premature move before finishing ninth, beaten 21. Subsequently stretched out to nine furlongs on soft turf June 23, the bay failed to settle as they crawled up front, and pulled himself up to press three-wide without cover before again dropping far out of it late. Back to seven furlongs July 14, Disco On enjoyed a nice pocket journey--but he wasn't "empty" as the short form comment states--he was totally shut off at the top of the stretch and just couldn't quite get back into the game in time after losing momentum, settling for fourth. He did gallop out very well, however. The two runners that finished directly ahead of Disco On return here as do a number of similar-looking horses from higher profile connections, but to dismiss him as less than on par with this field off his recent trips would be a big mistake--he just might pull off something like his graduation shocker. Play: $20 Win (Turf Only). Alternate 1: Race 5 - $20 Win on #10 Fredericksburg (Turf Only). Alternate 2: Race 2 - $20 Win on #10 In Speight Ofitall. Bankroll: $735 - Record: 12-0-2-3.

Sherack: Friday - Wow, even I don’t know what to say at this point... DiDonato is accusing me of frog juicing, but a desk inspection came up clean. Released three horses Friday, and all of them came through, including my main play--$25 to win on Jitney ($17.80)... Two alternates Never On Time ($14.60) and Smart Believer ($7.40) added to the party... Any chance NYRA extends the Saratoga meeting through December?

Today - Race 10 - GI Whitney H., 3yo/up, 1 1/8m - #8 Hymn Book (4-1)
    Expecting a top-shelf performance from GI Donn H. hero Hymn Book in today’s main event. The Stuart Janney III homebred will have more than enough pace to run at, and should thrive on the return to two turns following a razor sharp second to Mucho Macho Man after an unkind break in the GII Suburban H. at Belmont July 7. He was given plenty of time to refocus following mediocre performances in the GII Oaklawn H. and GIII Pimlico Special S., and the strategy appears to have done the trick. Shug certainly knows what it takes to win this contest, and the price should be generous enough with plenty of others figuring to take a good deal of action at the windows. Johnny V returning to the saddle aboard a horse that always seems to find trouble exiting the stalls is definitely an added bonus. Play: $50 Win. Alternate 1: Race 2 - $40 Win on #10 In Speight Ofitall. Alternate 2: Race 6 - $20 Win (Turf Only) on #1 Lord of Love. Bankroll: $1,526 - Record: 13-5-1-0.